Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 需求指引偏平淡，锂价震荡偏弱 碳酸锂周报20250428 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端：本周国内碳酸锂产量环比减少488吨至16900吨，部分锂盐厂在4-6月检修，供应有少许减量。进口方面，据智利 海关，3月智利出口至中国碳酸锂规模为1.66万吨，环比增加38%，回升至均值水平。本周碳酸锂社会库存环比增加259吨 至13.19万吨，冶炼厂、下游及其他环节的库存分别为5.24万吨、4.28万吨和3.66万吨。冶炼厂和下游小幅累库，整体去 库压力较大。中长期维度，今年碳酸锂供应过剩的压力仍较大； 需求端：据调研，5月下游暂无大的需求增量，531抢装结束后，国内储能面临需求环比下滑的风险。终端市场方面，据乘 联分会4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比增长20%，环比下降 ...

原油：多空交织反复，油价震荡反弹 正信期货原油周报 20250428 研究员：付馨苇 从业资格编号：F03101045 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 Ø 宏观方面：美国关税政策仍存不确定性，美伊谈判结果的反复也加剧市场波动。据CME"美联储观察" ：美联储5月 维持当前利率不变的概率为91.7%，降息25个基点的概率为8.3%。美联储6月维持当前利率不变的概率为37.3%，降息 25个基点的概率为57.8%，降息50个基点的概率为4.9%。 Ø 供应端：地缘方面，美国对伊朗制裁措施还未完全落地，关注美伊暂定于5月3日举行的高级别会议，其结果将决定 制裁力度。欧佩克方面，欧佩克及其减产同盟国希望考虑在6月份继续加快石油产量增长，虽有成员国根据前期超产 情况提交补偿计划，但哈萨克斯坦称产油国利益大于同盟国利益，补偿减产或难落地，关注5月5日欧佩克会议。 Ø 需求端：美国油品即将进入季节性旺季，炼化端因提前备货开工率回升，美汽油裂解价差季 ...

PTA：假期终端减产预期下，PTA延续成本主导 MEG：向上动能不足，乙二醇延续震荡格局 正信期货聚酯周报 20250428 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net 产业链周度重要数据 | | 价格 | 变动 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI | 63.02 | -2.57% | 美元/桶 | 价格 | 涨跌 | 美元/吨 | | BRENT | 66.87 | -1.60% | 原油 | 581.75 | 2.47% | 石脑油 | | 价格 | 涨跌 | 美元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | | 581.75 | 2.47% | 石脑油 | | 价格 | 641 | 美元/吨 | 价格 | 655.5 | 美元/吨 | 价格 | 752 | 美元/吨 | 价格 | 790 | 美元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Zhengxin Futures Palm Oil Weekly Report 20250428 - **Analyst**: Zhang Cuiping - **Investment Consulting License Number**: Z0016574 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Long holidays approaching lead to capital risk - aversion, making it difficult for oils and fats to rebound further. Last week, the price centers of domestic and international oils and fats and oilseeds moved up overall. In the producing areas, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3 - 15% in the first 25 days of April, and production increased by 9 - 20% in the first 20 days. Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March. As of April 20, the US soybean sowing progress was 8%. In China, the spot demand for soybean oil is good, and the inventory has dropped to a low level of around 650,000 tons; there are purchases for both near - and far - term contracts of palm oil, and the inventory has stopped decreasing; the direct import level of rapeseed oil is high, and the inventory remains at a high level of over 800,000 tons. [7] - The sowing of new - season US soybeans has begun with a good initial progress, and weather - related trading has not started yet. However, the recovery of US biodiesel consumption and the improved outlook have driven the CBOT soybean price back above 1050. There is a lack of news about Indonesia's B40. The international soybean - palm oil price spread has ended an eight - month inversion, and recent purchases by China and India have continued to improve Malaysia's palm oil exports. But Malaysia's palm oil production in April continued the significant increase trend in March, and the producer quotes have dropped significantly. The producing areas have entered the production - increasing cycle, and the inventory has reached an inflection point, putting pressure on BMD crude palm oil. [7] - In terms of operation, as the tariff sentiment is released, the three major oils and fats have further recovered their previous declines. The palm oil is generally slightly weaker than soybean and rapeseed oils both at home and abroad. In the medium - to - long term, the strategy of expanding the price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil should be maintained. And as the May Day holiday approaches, attention should be paid to the short - term volatility risks caused by capital outflows. [8] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Main Views - Palm oil: With the approaching long holiday, capital is seeking safety, and it is difficult for oils and fats to rebound further. The prices of domestic and international oils and fats and oilseeds moved up last week. In the producing areas, Malaysia's palm oil exports and production increased in April, and Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March. In China, the inventory of soybean oil has decreased, the inventory of palm oil has stopped decreasing, and the inventory of rapeseed oil remains high. [7] - Strategy: The sowing of new - season US soybeans has started, and the CBOT soybean price has rebounded. The international soybean - palm oil price spread has ended the inversion, and Malaysia's palm oil exports have improved, but production has increased significantly. The producing areas are in the production - increasing cycle, and the inventory has reached an inflection point, putting pressure on BMD crude palm oil. The long - term strategy is to expand the price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and pay attention to short - term volatility risks during the holiday. [7][8] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, CBOT soybean oil reached a new high in nearly one and a half years, the prices of CBOT soybeans and China's three major oils and fats moved up, while Malaysia's palm oil was under pressure and tested the support level of 4000. [9] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The global tariff trading sentiment has further cooled down. [12] - **US Soybeans**: As of April 20, 2025, the US soybean sowing progress was 8%, slightly faster than expected. The trading related to weather has not started yet. The consumption outlook of biodiesel is promising, and both the soybean crushing volume and biodiesel consumption in the US increased in March. [12][13] - **Palm Oil**: From April 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3 - 14%, and production increased by 7 - 20% from April 1 - 20. Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March. The international soybean - palm oil price spread has recovered, and China and India's purchases have increased. SEA estimates that India's palm oil imports from May to September will be 500,000, 0, 700,000, 700,000, and 700,000 tons respectively. [12] - **Import and Crushing**: From January to March 2025, China's cumulative imports of soybeans were 17.109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%; palm oil imports were 380,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%; rapeseed oil imports were 730,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.7%; and rapeseed imports were 898,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.48%. The crushing rates of soybeans and rapeseed are low, the soybean inventory in oil mills has reached a nearly three - year high, and the rapeseed inventory is 300,000 - 350,000 tons. [12] - **Inventory**: As of mid - April 2025, the soybean oil inventory has decreased to 650,000 tons, the palm oil inventory has stopped decreasing at 350,000 - 360,000 tons, the rapeseed oil inventory remains above 800,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils and fats is 1.73 million tons, compared with 1.68 million tons in the same period in 2024. [12][41] - **Spot**: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats increased. As of April 25, the price of soybean oil was 8,407 yuan/ton, a 4.24% increase from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 9,288 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase; and the price of rapeseed oil was 9,586 yuan/ton, a 2.9% increase. [12][45] - **Demand**: As the prices recovered from previous declines, the spot trading volume of oils and fats decreased significantly last week. The spot trading volume of soybean oil was 86,700 tons, compared with 282,300 tons in the previous week; the trading volume of palm oil was 959 tons, compared with 766 tons in the previous week; and the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 0 tons, the same as in the previous week. [12][48] 3.4 Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the given text.

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250428 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Advisory Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: zhangjf@zxqh.net, wangyh@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Zinc Inter - period Arbitrage**: With the continuous and rapid increase in TC, smelters have turned profitable. Affected by the production cycle of zinc mines at home and abroad, zinc ore supply will cyclically shift from tight to loose. If there are no major highlights in demand throughout the year, the supply - demand balance tends to move towards surplus. It is recommended to participate in zinc inter - period positive arbitrage on a dip - rolling basis [4]. - **Aluminum - Zinc Cross - variety Arbitrage**: The output of refined zinc in China has marginally recovered, and the newly commissioned zinc mine projects globally are expected to gradually release incremental production throughout the year. Due to capacity restrictions in China, the fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than those of zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on a dip - rolling basis [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: LME copper increased by 1.87% from $9,188.5 to $9,360; LME aluminum rose by 3.04% from $2,365.5 to $2,437.5; LME zinc climbed by 2.66% from $2,577 to $2,645.5; LME lead advanced by 1.20% from $1,922 to $1,945; LME nickel decreased by 0.84% from $15,622 to $15,490; LME tin went up by 4.35% from $30,643 to $31,975. SHFE copper increased by 2.19% from 75,780 to 77,440; SHFE aluminum rose by 1.96% from 19,645 to 20,030; SHFE zinc climbed by 3.46% from 21,990 to 22,750; SHFE lead advanced by 1.16% from 16,750 to 16,945; SHFE nickel decreased by 0.18% from 126,030 to 125,800; SHFE tin went up by 1.97% from 257,770 to 262,840 [8]. - **Fund Flow**: The unilateral open interest of most non - ferrous metals is at a relatively low level in recent years, with a significant increase in aluminum's unilateral open interest recently. This week, copper's unilateral open interest increased by 1.4% month - on - month, while those of aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin decreased by 3.9%, 8.2%, 4.6%, and 7.8% respectively. Except for aluminum, the main non - ferrous metals experienced net capital outflows this week [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased by 4.66% to 203,450; LME aluminum inventory dropped by 2.90% to 421,575; LME zinc inventory declined by 7.83% to 180,050; LME lead inventory decreased by 2.68% to 274,075; LME nickel inventory fell by 1.01% to 202,470; LME tin inventory decreased by 1.40% to 2,810 [22]. - **Profit**: Copper smelters' losses widened to 2,651 yuan/ton as processing fees decreased slightly week - on - week. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18,069 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose to 2,031 yuan/ton. Zinc's domestic processing fee remained flat, and the theoretical smelting profit from domestic ore was 936 yuan/ton [40]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: The copper basis was 840, with a basis premium rate of 1.08%, a one - year basis quantile of 96.28%, and a three - year basis quantile of 85.54%. The aluminum basis was 70, with a basis premium rate of 0.35%, a one - year basis quantile of 87.19%, and a three - year basis quantile of 70.04%. The zinc basis was 490, with a basis premium rate of 2.15%, a one - year basis quantile of 85.54%, and a three - year basis quantile of 85.26%. The lead basis was 175, with a basis premium rate of 1.03%, a one - year basis quantile of 81.40%, and a three - year basis quantile of 90.98%. The nickel basis was 910, with a basis premium rate of 0.72%, a one - year basis quantile of 54.75%, and a three - year basis quantile of 24.72%. The tin basis was 340, with a basis premium rate of 0.13%, a one - year basis quantile of 55.17%, and a three - year basis quantile of 49.17% [43]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. Copper's spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract was - 210, a decrease of 130 from last week. Aluminum's spread was - 60, an increase of 30 from last week. Zinc's spread was - 220, an increase of 30 from last week. Lead's spread was - 5, an increase of 35 from last week. Nickel's spread was 160, an increase of 20 from last week. Tin's spread was 70, an increase of 90 from last week [58]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: The domestic - to - overseas ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the domestic - to - overseas ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The domestic - to - overseas ratios of base metals were 1.13 for copper, 1.14 for aluminum, 1.17 for zinc, 1.19 for lead, 1.11 for nickel, and 1.15 for tin. The import profits and losses of copper, zinc, lead, and nickel were 591, 142, 706, and 447 respectively this week, while those of other major metals were negative [75]. - **Arbitrage Considerations**: Cross - market arbitrage can take into account factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilization policies [75]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - **Ratio and Spread Data**: The report provides detailed ratio and spread data for various cross - variety combinations (e.g., copper - aluminum, copper - zinc) at the current time, three months ago, and one year ago, along with their respective quantiles [92].

豆粕现货由紧转松，连粕冲高回落 豆粕周报 20250428 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1 目录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 主要观点 本周豆粕冲高回落。 成本端，当前美豆产区天气良好，截至20日种植率录得8%高于预期；不过上周美豆出口净销售录得27.7万 吨符合预期，叠加美豆油强势反弹，拉动美豆震荡走高。 国内，近期现货市场持续炒作缺货，叠加五一备货刺激下游成交转好，油厂大豆库存触底反弹，而豆粕大 幅去库至12.55万吨，为近10年同期低位。 策略：短期随着油厂开机逐渐增加，豆粕现货或将迎来回调，连粕整体面临压力；不过美豆强势对连粕形 成支撑，多空交织连粕或震荡运行；同时中长期新季美豆面积减少仍存在支撑，建议连粕09逢低做多。 当周CBOT大豆收于109.25美分/蒲，较上周收盘上涨12.50点，周涨幅1.19%； 当周M2509豆粕收于3031元/吨，较上周收盘上涨10点，周涨幅0.33%。 CBOT大豆 M2509豆粕 行情回顾 数据来源：文华财经，正信期货 CBOT大豆与M2509豆粕 截至4月25日收盘， 基本面分析 | 类别 | 关键词 | 描述 | | ...

新疆棉花播种接近尾声，郑棉低位震荡 棉花周报 20250428 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meishu ...

沪锌：库存快速去化，现货有所支撑 研究员：潘保龙 投资咨询号：Z0019697 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 目 录 第一部分：核心观点 第二部分：产业基本面供给端 第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 核心观点 全球锌精矿产量 万吨 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2019年 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 锌矿加工费-年度国际长协基准价 $300 $194 $250 $229 $191 $210 $223 $245 $203 $172 $147 $245 $300 $159 $230 $274 $165 $80 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 产业基本面-供给端 2.2 锌精矿进口量及加工费 ◆ 国内1-3月累计进口锌精矿121.77万实物吨，同比增加36.64%，进口矿进口量环比回升，助推加工费上调。 ◆ 截止4月25日，根据SMM，进口矿加工费报40美元/吨，国产矿加工费报3450元/吨，国产、进 ...

短期供需平衡，花生震荡为主 正信期货花生周报 20250428 农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/ 美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meis ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US trade friction is at a standstill with high uncertainty, and there are still domestic policy expectations. In the short term, the hot metal production remains at a high level, providing some support for the raw material demand. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, and the supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose. Before the holiday, it is expected to fluctuate mainly. To avoid policy risks, it is recommended to continue to reduce short positions and hold a light position during the holiday [4][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke 3.1.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The second - round price increase of spot coke has started but not yet landed, and the spot price is mainly stable. The coke 09 contract rose 0.87% to 1566 as of Friday's close. The freight rate of coke by truck remained stable last week [8][9][10] 3.1.2 Supply - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and coke supply increased significantly. As of April 25, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises nationwide was 75.36%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 66.85 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.52 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking was 87.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 47.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 tons [28][34] 3.1.3 Demand - Hot metal production accelerated its recovery, and steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. As of April 25, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,300 tons; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points. The speculative sentiment was average, export profits declined, and the spot trading volume of building materials remained low [37][40] 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills made rigid - demand purchases, coke enterprises slightly reduced their inventories, and the total inventory decreased slightly. As of April 25, the total coke inventory decreased by 29,600 tons week - on - week to 1.0148 million tons. Among them, the port inventory decreased by 25,200 tons week - on - week to 243,580 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 23,900 tons week - on - week to 104,870 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory increased by 19,500 tons week - on - week to 666,350 tons [43][46] 3.1.5 Profit - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and the coke futures profit fluctuated. The national sample of 30 independent coke enterprises had a loss of 9 yuan per ton of coke, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan. The futures profit of coke 09 increased by 3.45 yuan per ton week - on - week to 323.2 yuan per ton [54] 3.1.6 Valuation - Coke 09 had a slight premium, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 13.5 week - on - week to - 79.39, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 week - on - week to - 28.5 [58] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The spot price mainly weakened. The coking coal 09 contract rose 0.37% to 956 as of Friday's close [4][61] 3.2.2 Supply - The impact of coal mine production cuts was limited, the operating rate of coal washing plants increased, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the import of coking coal from January to March 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As of April 25, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants nationwide was 63.01%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points; the daily average output of clean coal was 534,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,400 tons. From January to March 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 27.47 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 2.32% [72][76] 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises reduced their inventories, coal mines accumulated inventories, and the total inventory remained flat. As of April 25, the total coking coal inventory increased by 1,000 tons week - on - week to 2.61251 million tons. Among them, the inventory of coking coal in mining enterprises increased by 212,600 tons week - on - week to 354,600 tons; the port inventory decreased by 125,900 tons week - on - week to 324,790 tons; the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 3,500 tons week - on - week to 181,680 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 71,700 tons week - on - week to 968,960 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory decreased by 17,500 tons week - on - week to 782,480 tons [79][82] 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 had a slight discount, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 3.5 week - on - week to 14, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged week - on - week at - 48 [101]