PTA：聚酯减产负反馈下，PTA承压回落 MEG：多重利好兑现，MEG短期有回调预期 正信期货聚酯周报 20250519 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 数据来源：WIND,隆众 成本端：地缘局势缓和，且OPEC+加速增产，需求欠佳的压力仍存，预计油价短期偏弱运行。PX方面，PX加工 费偏低，浙石化更换催化剂，国内PX负荷再次下滑，PX供需尚可，受成本拖累明显，预计PX短期叫原油表现好。 供应端：PTA：四川能投和新疆中泰有重启计划，预计下周PTA产量提升。乙二醇：国产检修超预期增加，开 工率大幅下滑至61%附近，进口维持低位，国产产量与进口量双降预期。 需求端：下周聚酯负荷存下滑预期，装置检修与重启并存，但新装置负荷提升缓慢，且减产计划较多，如恒 力、金纶、中鲈等，预计下周聚酯产量小幅下滑。原料市场在利好消息的发酵影响下连续上涨，部分厂商担心 未来成本走高，故进行集中原料备货，下游原料补货气氛升温，部分厂商备货周期在6月中旬附近。后市来看 织造行业生产积极性较前期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Due to some traders holding back supplies, the circulation of pulp has tightened temporarily. The main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, oscillated and rebounded within a range of about 300 points last week. It is expected that the price of the main contract of pulp futures will mainly oscillate and rebound within the range of 5260 - 5630 this week. Operationally, when the price rebounds after a mid - week correction and encounters support, short - term long positions can be taken at low prices, with risk control in mind [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp rebounded slightly. In Shandong, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star rose to 6300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (or +1.61%); Kalip rose to 6350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (or +2.42%); Northwood rose to 6500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (or +3.17%). The price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish rose to 4250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (or +3.66%); Birdie and Alpine rose to 4200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (or +3.7%). However, the prices of some non - wood pulps such as virgin pulp and bamboo pulp decreased slightly [11][13]. - **Pulp Futures Price Review**: The main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, oscillated and rebounded within a range of about 300 points last week, closing at 5356 yuan/ton on the weekly line, up 192 yuan/ton (or +3.72%). The trading volume was 1.145 million lots, an increase of 354,000 lots, and the open interest was 96,200 lots, a decrease of 19,200 lots [17]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: The basis discount of pulp futures and spot decreased slightly as the increase in the spot price of wood pulp was less than that of the futures price last week. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 944 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92 yuan/ton compared with last week [20]. - **Log Futures Price Review**: The main contract of log futures, 2507, showed a trend of rising first and then falling with oscillatory adjustments last week, closing at 783.0 yuan/cubic meter on the weekly line, down 1.5 yuan/cubic meter (or - 0.19%) compared with the previous week. The trading volume was 95,700 lots, an increase of 34,700 lots, and the open interest was 27,400 lots, a decrease of 3,300 lots [22]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 487,500 tons, a decrease of 8,200 tons (or - 1.66%) compared with the previous week. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 207,000 tons, and the production of chemi - mechanical pulp was 201,000 tons. It is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 200,000 tons and the production of chemi - mechanical pulp will be about 195,000 tons this week [24]. - **Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemi - mechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.5%, a decrease of 3.09% compared with the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemi - mechanical pulp was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.01% compared with the previous week [29]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In April 2025, the domestic pulp production was 1.9997 million tons, a decrease of 213,300 tons (or - 9.64%) compared with the previous month. The production of wood pulp was 1.644 million tons, a decrease of 210,900 tons (or - 11.37%); the production of broad - leaf pulp was 803,000 tons, a decrease of 174,800 tons (or - 17.87%); the production of chemi - mechanical pulp was 841,000 tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons (or - 4.12%) [30]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Broad - leaf and Chemi - mechanical Pulp**: In April 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 69.22%, a decrease of 12.37% compared with the previous month; the capacity utilization rate of chemi - mechanical pulp was 83.62%, a decrease of 0.74% compared with the previous month. The production of bamboo pulp was 264,000 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons (or - 0.63%); the production of sugarcane pulp was 76,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons (or - 0.54%) [35]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In April 2025, the pulp import volume was 2.8928 million tons, a decrease of 356,300 tons (or - 10.97%) compared with the previous month and a decrease of 327,200 tons (or - 10.16%) compared with the same period last year. The cumulative import volume from January to April 2025 was 12.53 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons (or +1%) compared with the same period last year [39]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 277,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.36%) compared with the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 62.6%, a decrease of 0.3% compared with the previous week [42]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 77,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons (or +4.05%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.9%, an increase of 2.3% compared with the previous week. The offset paper production was 200,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.5%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.1%, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous week [46]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, in the packaging paper market, the production of white cardboard was 279,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons (or - 3.79%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.05%, a decrease of 2.68% compared with the previous week. The production of corrugated paper was 457,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons (or +2.93%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 60.8%, an increase of 1.7% compared with the previous week. The production of boxboard paper was 613,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons (or +2.68%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.1%, an increase of 1.8% compared with the previous week [49][52]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, in the tissue paper market, the price of Shandong wood pulp jumbo roll base paper remained stable, the price of Sichuan bamboo pulp jumbo roll base paper remained stable, and the price of Guangxi sugarcane pulp jumbo roll base paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.9%). In the cultural paper market, the price of Shandong 70g offset paper remained stable, and the price of 157g copperplate paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.90%). In the white cardboard market, the price of Jiangsu Bohui 250 - 4，00g white cardboard decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 1.28%), and the price of Wanguo Taiyang 250 - 400g white cardboard remained stable. In the boxboard and corrugated paper markets, the prices remained stable [53][57][59]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the domestic tissue paper production was 1.258 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons (or - 4.55%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 66.5%, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the previous month. The domestic white cardboard production was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons (or - 7.04%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.0%, a decrease of 3.02% compared with the previous month. The domestic offset paper production was 832,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (or - 3.48%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.25%, a decrease of 0.16% compared with the previous month. The copperplate paper production was 344,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.5%, an increase of 0.19% compared with the previous month. The domestic pulp consumption in April 2025 was 3.268 million tons, a decrease of 173,000 tons (or - 5.03%) compared with the previous month [62][65][68]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Last week, the overall domestic port inventory showed a trend of accumulation. The inventory of the main port samples was 2.198 million tons, an increase of 163,000 tons (or +8.01%) compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port was 1.387 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons (or +5.24%) compared with the previous week. The inventory of Changshu Port was 525,000 tons, an increase of 97,000 tons (or +22.66%) compared with the previous week, and the inventory of Tianjin Port was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons (or - 33.33%) compared with the previous week [72][73]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 252,600 tons, a decrease of 68,017 tons (or - 21.21%) compared with the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong were 227,500 tons, a decrease of 49,412 tons (or - 17.84%) compared with the previous week [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The trade conflict has eased, but the uncertainty remains high, and the market sentiment is cautious. The hot metal production has started to decline, and the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, leading to a weakening of the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal remains abundant, and it is expected to continue to reach new lows, with coke following suit. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies [4][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The market sentiment is cautious, and the futures market is weak. The first round of spot price cuts has been implemented. The coke 09 contract fell 1.03% to 1,445.5 as of Friday's close. Various coke prices, including those at production sites, steel mills, and ports, have decreased [4][9][10]. - The freight for coke transportation by truck has remained stable [17]. 3.1.2 Supply - Coke producers are making decent profits, and the supply remains at a high level. As of May 16, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke producers nationwide was 75.7%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily coke output was 671,500 tons, up 2,300 tons [26][28]. 3.1.3 Demand - The hot metal production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level. There is still short - term support for the raw material demand, but based on the seasonal decline in demand, the decline in hot metal production is certain, albeit at a slow pace. Some steel mills are controlling the arrival of raw materials. As of May 16, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points from the previous week [36]. - The speculative sentiment is weak, the export profit has slightly rebounded, and the daily trading volume of building materials in the spot market is low [37][39]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Inventories across all sectors have decreased, and the total inventory has declined. As of May 16, the total coke inventory decreased by 113,300 tons to 9,832,200 tons [42]. 3.1.5 Profit - Coke producers' profitability continues to recover, and the coke futures profit has slightly increased. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coke producers was 7 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous week, and the futures profit of coke 09 increased by 31.5 yuan/ton to 337.25 yuan/ton [61]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The coke 09 contract is slightly at a premium to the spot price, and the 9 - 1 spread is fluctuating. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 20.5 to - 23.4 compared to the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 to - 27 [65]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The spot market trading has weakened, and the futures market continues to reach new lows. Most coking coal prices, including those of domestic and imported coals, have either decreased or remained stable [68][71]. 3.2.2 Supply - Coal mines are operating normally, but the operating rate of coal washing plants has declined. As of May 15, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.08%, down 0.34 percentage points from the previous period, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 3,000 tons [74][79]. - The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has recovered to a relatively high level, and the import of coking coal in the first quarter increased slightly year - on - year. From January to March 2025, China imported 27.47 million tons of coking coal, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 2.32% [80][82]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises are making rigid - demand purchases, while upstream inventories are accumulating, and the total inventory has increased. As of May 16, the total coking coal inventory increased by 65,900 tons to 25,959,400 tons [85]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The discount of coking coal 09 to the spot price has slightly narrowed, and the 9 - 1 spread is fluctuating. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 15 to 67.5 compared to the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 to - 21.5 [107][108].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery slope has slowed, with weak internal momentum, low market confidence, and high deflation pressure. Further policy support is needed, and the role of domestic demand has become more important. The expectation of macro - policy regulation has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation and impact of policies at the end of the second quarter [2]. - Given the macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, the long - term treasury bonds have adjusted, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect. Although the economic data in April indicates that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, the index is supported. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: Last week, the Sino - US trade agreement was reached, and the overseas equity market risk appetite improved. With the support of domestic macro - policy expectations and mixed economic data, the index rose first and then fell, with most sectors rising. From May 9th to May 16th, the CSI 300 rose 1.12%, SSE 50 rose 1.22%, CSI 500 fell 0.10%, and CSI 1000 fell 0.23%. IF rose 0.98%, IH rose 1.09%, IC fell 0.05%, and IM fell 0.19%. The overnight Shibor rate increased by 16 basis points, and DR007 increased by 9.65 basis points [1][4]. - **Institutional Positions**: As of May 16th, the net short positions of the top 20 institutional members in IF and IC increased from 30,135 and 13,473 to 32,221 and 14,142 respectively, while those in IH and IM decreased from 11,943 and 35,213 to 11,025 and 34,951 respectively [4]. - **Liquidity and Capital**: As of May 16th, the net capital outflow from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 201.371 billion yuan, with 128.359 billion yuan from the main board and 56.138 billion yuan from the ChiNext. The margin trading balance increased by about 2.239 billion yuan, and the data on foreign capital was not released [5]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, the economy declined seasonally. Although imports and exports exceeded expectations, the internal economic momentum was still weak, with weak financing demand in the real economy. Investment mainly relied on policies, consumption was resilient but showed a marginal decline, and market confidence was insufficient. The economic recovery slope slowed, and further policy support was needed. The role of domestic demand became more important, and the expectation of macro - policy regulation increased [2]. Viewpoints and Strategies - In China, due to the implementation of macro - policy expectations and improved risk appetite in the equity market, long - term treasury bonds have adjusted. The economic data in April shows that policies are still needed to boost the internal momentum of economic recovery, which supports the index. However, due to insufficient trading volume, weak sentiment, and the possibility of tariff negotiation setbacks, the index is likely to oscillate and fall into a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels after a stable correction [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metal Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250512 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Consulting Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: wangyh@zxqh.net, zhangjf@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to the easing of tariff disputes in atmosphere, smelters turning profitable, continuous rapid increase in TC, and the cyclical shift of zinc ore supply from tight to loose with new domestic and foreign zinc mines coming into production, it is recommended to participate in the inter - period positive arbitrage of zinc by rolling at low prices [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, as zinc mine projects are expected to gradually release incremental output and the fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than zinc, it is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc by rolling at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Weekly Price Review**: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices increased week - on - week with increases of 3.51%, 0.75%, 2.35%, 1.23%, 2.50%, and 1.71% respectively; SHFE copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changed by 0.30%, - 1.11%, - 0.21%, - 0.22%, and - 0.29% respectively, while SHFE aluminum price decreased by 1.63% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' single - sided open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years, with aluminum's single - sided open interest increasing significantly recently. This week, the single - sided open interest of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin increased by 6.5%, 11.4%, 13.7%, 7.2%, 5.2%, and 4.5% respectively. Except for lead and nickel, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit Situation - **Inventory Situation**: LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin inventories decreased week - on - week with decreases of 4.18%, 2.89%, 2.82%, 4.58%, 1.81%, and 1.81% respectively [26]. - **Profit Situation**: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and smelters' loss widened to 2921 yuan/ton; the theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 17818 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit dropped to 1731 yuan/ton; the domestic processing fee of zinc increased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was - 243 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis Situation**: As of May 9, 2025, the copper basis was 930 with a basis premium rate of 1.20%; the aluminum basis was - 35 with a basis premium rate of - 0.18%; the zinc basis was 550 with a basis premium rate of 2.48%; the lead basis was 5 with a basis premium rate of 0.03%; the nickel basis was 1160 with a basis premium rate of 0.94%; the tin basis was - 340 with a basis premium rate of - 0.13% [46]. - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 510, a decrease of 280 compared with last week; that of aluminum was - 70, an increase of 5; that of zinc was - 385, a decrease of 145; that of lead was - 20, a decrease of 30; that of nickel was 210, remaining unchanged; that of tin was 240, an increase of 70 [62]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: Zinc and lead's Shanghai - to - LME ratios are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - to - LME ratios of major metals showed mixed trends, with the ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin being 1.13, 1.12, 1.15, 1.17, 1.08, and 1.12 respectively [81]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of copper, zinc, and lead were 548, 93, and 269 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [81]. Part V: Changes in Cross - variety Ratios of Non - ferrous Metals - As of May 9, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.95 with a ratio quantile of 96.8%; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.49 with a ratio quantile of 98.9%; the copper - lead ratio was 4.61 with a ratio quantile of 84.3%; the copper - nickel ratio was 1.59 with a ratio quantile of 0.3%; the copper - tin ratio was 3.35 with a ratio quantile of 68.8%; the zinc - aluminum ratio was 1.13 with a ratio quantile of 25.7%; the aluminum - lead ratio was 1.17 with a ratio quantile of 36.2%; the aluminum - nickel ratio was 6.30 with a ratio quantile of 10.1%; the aluminum - tin ratio was 13.25 with a ratio quantile of 83.6%; the zinc - lead ratio was 1.32 with a ratio quantile of 31.3%; the zinc - nickel ratio was 5.56 with a ratio quantile of 14.5%; the zinc - tin ratio was 11.70 with a ratio quantile of 87.8%; the lead - nickel ratio was 7.35 with a ratio quantile of 9.5%; the lead - tin ratio was 15.44 with a ratio quantile of 72.8%; the nickel - tin ratio was 2.10 with a ratio quantile of 97.1% [98].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, corn prices fluctuated at a high level. The U.S. corn market was weak in the short term. In the domestic market, the short - term supply of corn decreased, and with the concern about wheat production reduction, the spot price of corn was strong. However, due to the upcoming rainfall in the production area and the impact of warehouse clearance, the supply of corn might increase in the future, and the momentum for the continuous strengthening of the spot price weakened. In the medium - to - long term, as the grain sources gradually transferred to channels, the import of corn decreased significantly, and the downstream demand recovered, the long - term corn price was still expected to rise [6][7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Main Views - The U.S. corn export net sales last week exceeded expectations, but the good weather in the production area suppressed the price. In the domestic market, the previous rapid supply from the grass - roots level led to little remaining grain. As of May 8, the grain sales progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 97%, 4% faster than the same period last year; in 7 major producing provinces, it was 96%, also 4% faster. After the festival, the supply from the grass - roots level decreased, and the concern about wheat drought in the production area stimulated the strength of the corn spot price. However, the upcoming rainfall in Henan would relieve the concern about production reduction and suppress the bullish sentiment. In terms of demand, the replenishment demand after the festival might decline, and the processing demand was expected to weaken. The short - term U.S. corn was weak; the domestic corn spot price was strong in the short term but the continuous strengthening momentum weakened; in the long term, the far - month corn was still expected to rise [7]. 2. Market Review - The CBOT07 corn closed at 449.75 cents per bushel, down 19.00 points from last week, with a weekly decline of 4.05%. The C2507 corn closed at 2375 yuan per ton, down 2 points from last week, with a weekly decline of 0.08% [9]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Outer - market Corn - **Sowing**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the U.S. corn planting rate was 40%, lower than the market expectation of 41%, higher than 24% of the previous week, 35% of the same period last year, and the five - year average of 39% [17]. - **Export**: As of the week of May 1, the net export sales of U.S. corn in the 2024/2025 season were 166.3 tons, compared with 101.4 tons in the previous week; in the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 1.8 tons, compared with 24.5 tons in the previous week [21]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Grain Sales Progress**: As of May 8, the grain sales progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 97%, 4% faster than the same period last year; in 7 major producing provinces, it was 96%, 4% faster than the same period last year [24]. 3.3 Demand - **Feed Enterprises**: As of May 8, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.14 days, an increase of 0.39 days from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.97% [28]. - **Processing Enterprises**: From May 1 to May 7, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 121.97 tons of corn, a decrease of 2.15 tons from the previous week. The corn starch operating rate was expected to decline. As of May 7, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 494.6 tons, a decrease of 5.18% [32][36]. 3.4 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of May 2, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 425.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.6 tons, and the shipping volume was 79.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.10 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 150.3 tons, a decrease of 13.40 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 3.5 tons, a decrease of 2.50 tons from last week; the imported sorghum was 22 tons, a decrease of 3.60 tons from last week; the imported barley was 60.5 tons, a decrease of 0.20 tons from last week [38]. 4. Spread Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only the spread types such as corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - rice spread, corn basis, and wheat - rice spread were mentioned [42][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. The US and the UK reached a tariff agreement, and the UK will increase imports of US agricultural products, which may have a leading effect and benefit US soybean exports. China and the US have started contact and talks, but it may be difficult to reach a consensus in the short term, with limited impact. Last week, the net sales of US soybean exports were 387,000 tons, in line with expectations, supporting the upward fluctuation of US soybeans. However, the USDA drought report showed that as of May 6, the drought - affected area of US soybeans remained stable at 15%, which was relatively low overall. Argentina raised its soybean production forecast for this year by 1.4 million tons to 50 million tons, which was negative for US soybeans. In China, as the customs clearance of imported soybeans resumes, the operating rate of oil mills has gradually increased, and the spot supply of soybean meal has changed from tight to loose, with the spot basis dropping significantly. Currently, the soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills are low, but they are about to enter the inventory - building cycle. The long - and short - term factors are intertwined, and US soybeans fluctuate. The supply of domestic soybean meal has changed from tight to loose, and the soybean supply is sufficient from May to July. The resumption of normal operation of oil mills suppresses the near - month continuous soybean meal to fluctuate weakly. However, there is a replenishment demand from downstream after the festival, which supports the short - term stability of soybean meal spot. In the long - term, the reduction of the US soybean planting area is basically certain, and the background of production reduction supports the bullish sentiment for the far - month soybean meal. At the same time, the development of China - US tariffs is positive for long - term US soybeans. It is still recommended to go long on the far - month soybean meal at low levels. The strategy is to go long on soybean meal 09 at a low level in the range of 2900 - 3000 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - The CBOT soybean closed at 1052.25 cents per bushel this week, down 6.00 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.57%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 2899 yuan per ton, down 21 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 0.72% [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - **Weather and Sowing**: In the US soybean - producing areas, the rainfall is average and the temperature is gradually decreasing. As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the market expectation of 31%, higher than 18% of the previous week, 24% of the same period last year, and the five - year average of 23% [12][21] - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of May 1, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 377,000 tons, down from 428,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales for the 2025/2026 season were 10,000 tons, down from 50,000 tons in the previous week [12][24] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of May 3, the harvesting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 97.7%, up from 94.8% last week, higher than 94.3% of the same period last year and the five - year average of 96.3%. The estimated export volume in May is 12.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 870,000 tons. As Brazilian soybeans are exported in large quantities, the near - month premium of Brazilian soybeans has declined again [12][27][34] - **Argentine Soybeans**: As of May 2, the Argentine soybean harvesting rate was 23%, up from 14% last week, lower than 36.2% of the same period last year [12][30] 3.2.2 Supply - In the 18th week (April 26 - May 2), a total of 25 ships of soybeans, about 1.625 million tons, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [12][38] 3.2.3 Demand - In the 19th week (May 3 - May 9), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%, 103,000 tons higher than the forecast. The trading volume of soybean meal was 1.0584 million tons, and the pick - up volume was 603,900 tons [12][38][42] 3.2.4 Inventory - In the 18th week of 2025, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all increased. The soybean inventory was 4.7464 million tons, an increase of 151,600 tons from last week, a year - on - year increase of 556,300 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 82,100 tons, an increase of 7300 tons from last week, a year - on - year decrease of 443,000 tons [12][45] 3.3 Spread Tracking - No specific content provided for spread tracking other than listing the types such as the 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread [51]

供应压力较大，锂价弱势寻底 碳酸锂周报20250512 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张重洋 从业资格号：Z0020996 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端-3月锂辉石进口量环比小幅减少 锂精矿月度进口量 锂矿石进口结构 -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 2021-04-01 2021-06-01 2021-08-01 2021-10-01 2021-12-01 2022-02-01 2022-04-01 2022-06-01 2022-08-01 2022-10-01 2022-12-01 2023-02-01 2023-04-01 2023-06-01 2023-08-01 2023-10-01 2023-1 ...

第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 宏观：5月12日讯，5月10日至11日，中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。中方代表团在新闻发布会上表示，双方就彼此关心的经贸问 题开展了深入交流。会谈氛围是坦诚的、深入的、具有建设性的，取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机 制，明确双方牵头人，就各自关切的经贸问题开展进一步的磋商。中美双方将尽快敲定有关的细节，并且将于5月12日发布会谈达成的联合 声明。 核心观点 基本面：主要经济体与美国开始有不同程度的贸易谈判接洽，国内出台多项货币、财政刺激措施，宏观氛围趋于缓和，锌价延续震荡整理。 从大的基本面格局看，供给端锌矿周期性供给转宽正在落地，2025年内外几个大的锌矿项目均有增产安排，全球锌矿产量回升带动锌矿现货 TC边际持续走强。矿端增产传导至冶炼端，在冶炼利润回暖之下，国内炼厂开工率提升，延期检修，精炼锌产量边际恢复，且预计矿端和冶 炼端的增产形势会延续下去。需求一侧，贸易争端可能拖累全球经济增速，锌需求总量存收缩隐忧，即使各国快速达成新的贸易协议，全球 经济增速维持韧性，锌的总需求也难有增量预期，维持存量为主。无论对需求是偏乐 ...

淡旺季切换，价格上方压力加大 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国经济数据超预期，通胀预期走强，降息预期推迟；国内降准降息预期落地；中美贸易谈判进行中。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 第一部分 核心观点 供给：4月，在产产能环比减少390万吨，开工率大幅下滑；矿石端，国内到港量维持正常，澳大利亚雨季影响结束 进口： 2025年3月中国氧化铝净出口28.88万吨，环比大幅增加，连续12个月净出口；进口亏损周度环比略有走阔，进出口通道仍处于关闭 需求：电解铝在产产能持续增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝目前冶炼成本在每吨2866，每吨盈利59元，成本变化不大，利润略有走阔；烧碱价格最新价3480元/吨，周度环比无变化 产业面，铝土矿量维持正常，较历史同期偏高，矿价周度环比大幅下滑，冶炼亏损转正，预计冶炼产能会得到恢复；进口亏损小幅收敛，但进出 口通道仍处于关闭状态，出口需求偏弱；盘面仓单维持在高位，远期产量压力较大。综合来看，矿价大 ...