利润出现亏损 淘鸡意愿提升 正信期货鸡蛋周报 2025-5-12 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格明显下降， 淘鸡日龄小幅下降，大小码价差基本持平，鸡苗价 | | | 供应 | 格高位持续回落。 | 偏空 | | | 本周多地淘鸡价跟随蛋价下跌，部分规模化养殖企业顺势淘汰低产能老鸡，辽宁、山东等地 | | | | 老鸡淘汰量小幅增加，但要形成有效的去产能，仍需要时间。 | | | | 本周主销区销量小幅下降，主产区发货量小幅下降，流通库存和生产环节库存小幅下降。 | | | 需求 | 五一之后蛋价连续下跌，激发了下游市场的抄底情绪，经销商拿货积极性有所带动，产区走 | 中性 | | | 货加快，但终端市场消化节奏一般。随着南方逐渐进入梅雨季，高温高湿条件下，需求面临 | | | | 下降，而供应却在加速增长，供强需弱格局有望延续。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润大幅走低，低于近4年同期平均水平。 | 偏多 | | | 目前养殖利润出现亏损，养殖户可能加速淘汰低效产能。 | | | | 本 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the pig industry is "oscillating," with a "neutral" rating for supply, a "bearish" rating for demand, a "neutral" rating for profit, and a "bullish" rating for price and volume [3] Core Viewpoints - The pig industry may enter a pressure cycle in 2025, and prices will face long - term downward pressure, but there may be short - term support for pig prices in the second quarter due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - This week, the basis of live pigs increased slightly, and the futures were in a slight discount state, limiting the downward space. The spread between near - and far - term live pig futures increased slightly and was at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The net short positions of institutional investors in the main live pig futures contract were decreasing [3] Supply Analysis - The average weight of commercial pig sales of sample breeding enterprises this week was basically flat, the spread between standard and fat pigs widened slightly, and the proportion of large pigs continued to increase. Since this year, the spread between near - and far - term live pig futures has remained high, and the term structure is almost horizontal, reflecting the market's balanced expectation of the supply - demand relationship. In the long - term, the hedging behavior dominated by funds in the pig industry strengthens the linkage between futures and spot, and the pricing of long - term futures contracts mainly revolves around costs. The near - term contracts have significantly enhanced resistance to decline due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Demand Analysis - This week, slaughter orders decreased slightly, slaughter profits increased slightly, the fresh meat efficiency was basically flat, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly and was at a low level in the same period of the past four years. After the May Day holiday, pork purchases and sales returned to rationality, the purchasing and sales enthusiasm in cities decreased, orders of mainstream slaughtering enterprises decreased, and the operating rate gradually declined [3] Profit Analysis - The self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit is around the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is significantly higher than the average level in the same period of the past four years. In 2024, Muyuan Co., Ltd. had a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, ranking first, with a year - on - year increase of 519.42%. In 2024, Muyuan significantly reduced the pig breeding cost from 15.8 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 13 yuan/kg in December, with an average annual breeding cost of about 14 yuan/kg. In 2025, Muyuan further reduced the cost, and the full cost of pig breeding in March has dropped to 12.5 yuan/kg, with a target of reducing the average annual cost to 12 yuan/kg in 2025 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Spot prices continued to decline, and the market was weak. Supply showed high blast - furnace production and continuous reduction in electric - furnace output. Inventories of building materials and plates were both accumulating. Demand for building materials had a slower growth rate, and plate demand was weak domestically but strong externally. Profits of blast - furnaces expanded, while losses of electric - furnaces increased. The basis widened slightly. Overall, the supply - demand structure of building materials and plates weakened last week, and there was a risk of early inventory accumulation for building materials. The strategy was to maintain a bearish view and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [7]. Iron Ore - Ore prices rose slightly, but the market was still weak. Supply from Australia and Brazil declined, and arrivals also decreased. Demand exceeded expectations due to increased blast - furnace production. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices dropped. The overall supply - demand situation in the industry remained weak, and the market was dragged down by the falling prices of steel products. The strategy was to continuously monitor the opportunity for a supplementary decline when hot - metal production peaked, and in the short - term, a small number of short positions could be established, adding positions on rebounds and holding them in the medium - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar prices continued to fall. The 10 - contract dropped 74 to 3022, and spot prices also weakened. The rebar in East China was reported at 3170 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 30 yuan. The overall trading volume was light [14]. 1.2 Supply - The blast - furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The average daily hot - metal output was 245.64 tons, a weekly increase of 0.22 tons. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnaces decreased by 0.20 percentage points. Rebar production decreased by 9.85 tons, and hot - rolled production increased by 1.08 tons [17][24][27]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, from May 1st to May 7th, the national cement delivery volume decreased by 6.0% week - on - week and 22.5% year - on - year. The actual steel procurement volume in April was 566 tons, 4.1% less than the expected volume. The planned steel procurement volume in May was 605 tons, and the actual volume was expected to increase by about 4% month - on - month. For plates, domestic manufacturing demand declined significantly, while exports in April reached a new high [30][33]. 1.4 Profit - The profitability rate of blast - furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace building material steel mills was - 91 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit decreased by 13 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, factory inventories increased by 15.11 tons, and social inventories in most regions except East and South China decreased. For hot - rolled coils, factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased in most regions [41][44]. 1.6 Basis - The current basis of rebar 10 was 128, 24 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on the previous long - basis positions around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [50]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 15, 11 less inverted than last week. The current inversion situation was difficult to reverse completely, so no action was recommended [54]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 135, 27 wider than last week. The spot spread was 50, 10 wider than last week. There was no obvious driving force for the spread to continue narrowing, so no action was recommended [57]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Last week, iron ore prices continued to fall. The 09 - contract dropped 7.5 to 696, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped 3 to 758 yuan/ton. The market sentiment was weak, and port trading was poor [62]. 2.2 Supply - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2540.4 tons, a decrease of 217.9 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased by 45.2 tons week - on - week [65][71]. 2.3 Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased to 245.64 tons per day. After the May Day restocking ended, the market purchasing sentiment weakened, but the actual restocking situation was still good due to high hot - metal production and low steel mill inventories [74][78]. 2.4 Inventory - The inventory at 47 ports decreased by 84 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 91.43 tons [81][84]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping price from Western Australia to China was 7.55 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week. The shipping price from Brazil to China was 18.43 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.33 dollars/ton week - on - week [87]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26, 1.5 higher than last week, and the overall spread structure was flat. The 09 - contract discount was 78, at a relatively high level. The coking - ore ratio dropped significantly, and the rebar - ore ratio changed little. There was no obvious direction for spread trading [89][92].

终端需求放缓，盘面弱势难改 煤焦周度报告 20250512 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 国内政策提振有限，盘面大幅下跌；二轮提涨搁置，现货暂稳 | | | 供给 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭供应维持高位 | | | 需求 | 铁水增长停滞，后期有下滑预期；投机情绪弱化，出口利润下滑，建材现货日成交量较低 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库，总库存下滑 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭盘面利润小幅下滑 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水转为基本平水，9-1价差略走强 | | | 总结 | 上周国内宏观政策落地，地产方面未出新的实质性利好，对黑色提振有限；而五大材减产却累库，表需下滑超预期，市场情绪转弱，双焦重回跌势。截 至周五收盘，焦炭09合约跌6.47%至1446.5，焦煤09合约跌5.39%至877.5。焦炭方面，现货暂稳，焦企盈利尚可，开工率维持高稳。需求方面，铁水虽 维持高位，但基本停止增长，短期原料刚需尚有支撑，然终端需求放缓，铁水后期有下滑压力。盘面大跌后，贸易商投机情绪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the pulp market have slightly improved, with port inventories being depleted. However, pressure still remains. Some traders have tentatively raised their quotes, and the macro - sentiment has improved over the weekend. This week, the main pulp futures price is expected to rebound within a certain range, but the upside space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review** - **Needle - stable and Broad - weak**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed a trend of stable needle pulp and weak broad - leaf pulp. In Shandong, the quotes of coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood remained unchanged, while the quotes of broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish, Bird, and Alpa decreased. The Goldfish was quoted at 4,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (or - 1.2%); the Bird and Alpa were quoted at 4,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton (or - 2.41%) [10]. - **Stable Prices of Special Pulps**: The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp in Shandong remained stable. For example, the chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe was quoted at 3,900 yuan/ton, and the natural color pulp Venus was quoted at 5,350 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous week [13]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: The main pulp futures contract SP2507 first declined, then rebounded, and fluctuated within a 90 - point range last week. It finally closed at 5,164 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (or + 0.86%) for the week. The trading volume was 791,000 lots, an increase of 102,000 lots, and the open interest was 115,000 lots, a decrease of 2,200 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the stable increase in the spot price of wood pulp being slightly less than the increase in the pulp futures price, the basis discount of futures - spot narrowed slightly. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 1,036 yuan/ton, a reduction of 44 yuan/ton compared with last week [19]. - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2507 showed a trend of first rising, then falling, and fluctuating last week. It finally closed at 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 4.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 0.51%) from the previous week. The trading volume was 61,000 lots, an increase of 30,500 lots, and the open interest was 30,700 lots, an increase of 2,000 lots [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the weekly pulp production was 465,700 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons (or 0.56%) compared with the previous week. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 215,400 tons, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp was 200,700 tons. It is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp this week will be about 205,000 tons, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp will be about 200,000 tons [23]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp last week was 79.59%, up 2.06% from the previous week, while that of chemical mechanical pulp was 84.11%, down 0.98% [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In April 2025, the domestic pulp production was 1.9997 million tons, a decrease of 213,300 tons (or 9.64%) compared with the previous month. The production of wood pulp, broad - leaf pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp all decreased [28]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 69.22%, down 12.37% from the previous month, and that of chemical mechanical pulp was 83.62%, down 0.74%. The production of bamboo pulp and sugarcane pulp also decreased slightly [33]. - **Production Gross Margin**: In April 2025, the production gross margin of broad - leaf pulp was 1,021.81 yuan/ton, a decrease of 278.25 yuan/ton (or 21.4%) compared with the previous month and a significant year - on - year decrease. The production gross margin of chemical mechanical pulp was - 225.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.84 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [34]. - **Pulp Imports**: In March 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.2491 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons (or 0.9%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 79,000 tons (or 2.50%) year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to March was 9.64 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons (or 5%) year - on - year [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 278,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or 0.36%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.9%, up 0.2% [40]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: In the cultural paper market last week, the copperplate paper production was 74,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons (or 3.9%), and the capacity utilization rate was 54.6%, down 2.5%. The offset paper production was 201,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or 0.5%), and the capacity utilization rate was 56.3%, up 0.2% [44]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: In the packaging paper market last week, the production of white cardboard, whiteboard paper, corrugated paper, and boxboard paper all decreased, and their capacity utilization rates also declined to varying degrees [47][50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In the tissue paper market, most prices remained stable, while some decreased slightly. In the cultural paper market, the prices of double - offset paper and double - copper paper decreased. In the whiteboard paper and white cardboard markets, prices were weak, and in the boxboard paper and corrugated paper markets, prices remained stable [51][54][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tissue paper, white cardboard, and double - offset paper decreased, while that of copperplate paper increased slightly. The actual domestic pulp consumption also decreased [59][62][65]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Last week, the overall port inventory showed a downward trend. The inventory of mainstream ports was 2.035 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (or 3.05%) compared with the previous week. The inventory of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Tianjin Port all decreased [69][72]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 320,600 tons, an increase of 9,338 tons (or 3.0%) compared with the previous week. The warehouse receipts in Shandong increased, with significant changes in some warehouses [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May, the macro environment is changing. With the repair of overseas equity risk appetite, the boost of domestic macro - policies, and the marginal mitigation of tariff disturbances, the RMB exchange rate and the domestic equity market are likely to remain strong. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies. The CSI 300 Index has support at 3600 - 3700 and resistance at 4000 - 4100 [2][18] Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the index oscillated upward with all sectors closing higher. By May 9, the CSI 300 fell 0.36%, the SSE 50 fell 0.84%, the CSI 500 rose 0.46%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.50%. IF fell 0.55%, IH fell 1.01%, IC rose 0.35%, and IM rose 0.59%. The net short positions of IF and IC held by the top 20 institutional members decreased, while those of IH and IM increased [1][4] - **Liquidity and Capital**: By May 9, the overnight Shibor rate dropped 26 basis points, and DR007 dropped 25.77 basis points. The inter - bank market interest rate declined marginally. The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 115.282 billion, with the main board having a net outflow of 75.083 billion and the GEM having a net outflow of 25.099 billion. The margin trading balance increased by about 17.394 billion. Foreign capital data was suspended [4][5] Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, CPI continued to be under pressure with deflationary pressure remaining. Food CPI rebounded, non - food CPI declined, and optional consumption demand was weak. PPI of production and living materials continued to decline, indicating weak manufacturing demand. The Politburo meeting emphasized more active macro - policies. After the May Day holiday, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented. Although the Q1 economy recovered better than expected, the Q2 economy faces significant downward pressure [13][15] Views and Strategies - Overseas, the US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment. The US economy showed resilience, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Earnings reports and trade negotiations supported the US stock market. Domestically, the index adjustment in April digested negative impacts. In May, macro - policies provided support, and market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies [17][18]

作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 PTA：原料强势支撑下，PTA偏暖震荡 MEG：供需格局尚可，MEG短期延续低位反弹 正信期货聚酯周报 20250512 | | | 元/吨 | | POY | FDY | DTY | 开工率 | 元/吨 | | | 元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格 | 5805 | 瓶片 | 价格 | 6525 | 6550 | 7775 | 92 | 长丝 | 价格 | 6385 | 短纤 | | 涨跌 | 1.49% | | 涨跌 | 1.56% | 0.77% | 0.97% | | | 涨跌 | 0.71% | | | 加工利润 | 5805 | | 利润 | -57.3167 | -248.983 | 41.6667 | | | 加工利润 | -193.983 | | | 利润涨跌 | 0.26% | | ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic factors such as US tariff policies and the results of US-Iran negotiations are uncertain, which intensifies market volatility. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 82.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 17.3%. [6] - On the supply side, Iran's nuclear negotiations with the US are "difficult but productive," and OPEC plans to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in June, almost offsetting the compensatory production cuts of 431,000 barrels per day by seven countries. [6] - On the demand side, the US and the UK have reached a trade framework agreement, and China and the US are holding talks, which may ease tariff conflicts and boost market sentiment. [6] - In the short term, oil prices may fluctuate and recover, but in the medium term, the center of gravity may decline. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities before the June OPEC meeting and focus on the WTI range of $55 - $65 per barrel. [6] Summary by Directory 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From May 5 - 9, international oil prices rebounded and recovered. As of May 9, WTI settled at $61.02 per barrel (+4.68%), Brent at $63.91 per barrel (+4.27%), and INE SC at 493.9 yuan per barrel (+2.34%). [9] - The week-on-week price changes and spreads of various crude oil varieties and arbitrage indicators are detailed in the report, including price increases for WTI, Brent, and Oman, and decreases for SC. [12] 1.2 Financial Aspects - The tension in the trade war has eased, but there is no further positive progress. The S&P 500 index is oscillating within a range, and the VIX volatility has further slowed down. However, due to potential changes in some US policies, financial market volatility may not continue to decline. [14] 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and the US Dollar Index - As of May 9, the crude oil ETF volatility was 39.82, and the US dollar index was 100.42. After the release of the negative impact of OPEC+ production increases before May Day, the volatility in the crude oil market has decreased. The market is currently focused on the impact of US tariff policies and geopolitics on oil prices, and the US dollar index is under pressure. [18] 1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - As of May 6, the net long positions of WTI managed funds decreased by 11,500 contracts to 128,600 contracts, a weekly decline of 8.2%. The speculative net long positions increased by 9,700 contracts to 37,200 contracts, a weekly increase of 26%. [21] 2. Crude Oil Supply Analysis 2.1 OPEC Production - In March, OPEC's crude oil production decreased by 78,000 barrels per day to 26.776 million barrels per day. Iraq, Libya, and Nigeria had significant production cuts, while Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Kuwait had slight increases. [27] - According to the IEA's statistics, the production of nine OPEC member countries in March was 21.94 million barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 60,000 barrels per day. Iraq and the UAE still had significant overproduction. [31] - In March, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 40,000 barrels per day to 8.964 million barrels per day, and Iran's production increased by 12,000 barrels per day to 3.335 million barrels per day. [34] 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC's statistics, Russia's crude oil production in March was 8.963 million barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 barrels per day. According to the IEA, it was 9.07 million barrels per day, also a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day. In March, Russia's crude oil and petroleum product exports totaled 7.38 million barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 barrels per day and a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%. [44] 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of May 2, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 479, a decrease of 4 from the previous week and 20 from the same period last year. The efficiency of drilling and oil wells has improved, allowing producers to maintain record production while controlling capital expenditures. [48] - As of the week of May 2, US crude oil production decreased to 13.367 million barrels per day, a decrease of 98,000 barrels per day from the previous week but a year-on-year increase of 2.04%. [52] 3. Crude Oil Demand Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - As of the four weeks ending May 2, the average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 19.872 million barrels per day, an increase of 718,000 barrels per day from the previous week but a year-on-year decrease of 2.06%. [56] - The gasoline crack spread in the US has stabilized and rebounded, while the heating oil crack spread has been relatively weak. As of May 9, the gasoline crack spread was $27.53 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $25.77 per barrel. [65] 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of May 9, the ICE diesel crack spread was $18.18 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $22.88 per barrel. The impact of cold weather on oil product demand has weakened, and the crack spreads of ICE diesel and heating oil are expected to decline slightly in the second quarter. [69] 3.3 Chinese Oil Product and Refinery Situation - In March, China's crude oil processing volume decreased by 718,000 tons year-on-year to 63.06 million tons (-1.13%), and imports increased by 2.36 million tons year-on-year to 51.41 million tons (4.81%). Since March, state-owned refineries have reduced their purchases of Russian seaborne oil and increased their purchases from the Middle East, West Africa, and South America. [73] 3.4 International Institutions' Forecasts of Demand Growth - In April, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted that the global crude oil demand growth rates for this year would be 900,000 barrels per day (down), 726,000 barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (down), respectively. For next year, the growth rates are expected to be 1 million barrels per day, 692,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day. [78] 4. Crude Oil Inventory Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - As of May 2, the EIA's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438.4 million barrels, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. The SPR inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.12 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 740,000 barrels to 24.96 million barrels. [79] - As of the four weeks ending May 2, the net imports of US crude oil increased by 673,000 barrels per day to 2.05 million barrels per day. The refinery processing volume increased by 325,000 barrels per day to 15.889 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased by 0.4% to 89%. [81] - As of May 9, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.44 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.71 per barrel. The Brent M1 - M2 spread was $0.48 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.23 per barrel. Both WTI and Brent spreads showed signs of decline due to concerns about OPEC+ production increases. [84][87] 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Analysis 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In April, the EIA predicted that the global oil supply would be 104.1 million barrels per day this year, and the demand would be 103.64 million barrels per day, resulting in a daily surplus of 460,000 barrels. The IEA predicted that the supply would be 104.2 million barrels per day and the demand would be 103.5 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 700,000 barrels. [91] 5.2 Term Structure - This week, the crude oil market has oscillated upwards amidst uncertainties. The increase in OPEC production may continue until June, and the compensatory production cut plan may not be implemented, weakening the fundamental support. The term structure may change in the short term. [95]

产区上量偏少支撑现货，盘面大幅走高 玉米周报 20250428 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 CBOT07玉米 C2507玉米 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening of the US economy is persistent but has not fully reached a recession. Tariff policies are gradually showing their impact, which may accelerate the recession process. The Fed is still reluctant to cut interest rates, and its expected management direction is unclear, causing market concerns that the Fed will only act after a recession occurs, putting pressure on copper prices from a valuation perspective. In China, policy stimulus supports domestic demand [5][14][82]. - The main logic at the industrial level is whether smelting production cuts actually occur. Under the triple pressure of eroded profits, tight ore supply, and poor copper price performance, smelting difficulties are more severe than last year. Prices may fall to eliminate some production capacity, but copper prices will regain price elasticity after supply contraction [5][82]. - Before the holiday, driven by strong domestic buying sentiment, copper prices filled some gaps and maintained a relatively strong oscillating trend. However, due to continuous capital outflows from the market, the rebound space may be limited, with resistance seen at the 77,500 yuan level. After the holiday, copper prices may decline. Attention should be paid to changes in the US economy. The macro - logic has shifted, and recession trading has inertia, but there is still room for short - to medium - term games. The main price range after the holiday is expected to be between 70,000 and 77,000 yuan. In the third quarter, attention should be paid to the price decline after the US economy reaches an inflection point [5][82]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - level - **PMI of Major Economies**: In April, the European manufacturing PMI was stable, and the US manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded. The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7%, up 0.1% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.3% to 48%, and France's decreased by 0.3% to 48.2%. The US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but the service level dropped 3 percentage points to 51.4%. In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month, continuing the seasonal rebound trend. However, external demand dragged down the overall recovery, and the second quarter will face the pressure of seasonal off - peak and the withdrawal of macro - policies [12]. - **Economic Situation and Copper Price Impact**: The weakening of the US economy is persistent but has not fully reached a recession. Tariff policies may accelerate the recession process. The Fed's unclear interest - rate policy makes the market worried, putting pressure on copper prices. In China, policy stimulus supports domestic demand [5][14][82]. Industrial Fundamentals - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In 2024, the global copper concentrate market was in surplus. In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%, and the annual production was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In February 2025, global copper mine production was 1.803 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.29%, and the refined copper market had a surplus of 61,000 tons. China's copper concentrate imports also increased. In December 2024, imports were 2.522 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, cumulative imports were 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In March 2025, imports were 2.394 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to March were 7.108 million tons, a 1.8% increase from the previous year [21][24]. - **TC (Treatment and Refining Charges)**: As of April 25, the average domestic copper concentrate TC was - 42.52 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 7.81 US dollars from the previous week. The spot TC for scattered orders became negative and the situation worsened, but copper concentrate port inventories began to increase to 750,000 tons [28]. - **Refined Copper Production**: In March 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production increased by 63,900 tons month - on - month, a 6.04% increase, and a 12.27% year - on - year increase. The cumulative production from January to March increased by 274,500 tons, a 9.4% increase. In April, some smelters had maintenance plans, but the overall production remained stable through adjustments in raw material input [33]. - **Refined Copper Import and Export**: In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%, and exported 457,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. From January to March 2025, China imported 842,600 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.06%, and exported 117,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 156.25% [39]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of scrap copper, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. The annual cumulative import in 2024 was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. From January to February 2025, the cumulative import was 382,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.86% [42]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread**: The average spread between scrap and refined copper rods this week was 993 yuan per ton, up 489 yuan month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises improved marginally, and the weekly sample finished - product inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises was 2,600 tons, up 850 tons month - on - month. After the tax - related issues are resolved, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises is expected to continue to rise [46]. - **Consumption - end Demand**: - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, power infrastructure investment increased by 12.14% year - on - year, and grid investment increased by 15.26% year - on - year. From January to March 2025, power infrastructure investment decreased by 2.5% year - on - year, and grid investment increased by 24.8% year - on - year [50]. - **Air - conditioner Production**: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioner production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; the cumulative production from January to December was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to March 2025, the air - conditioner production was 74.4576 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [55]. - **Automobile Production**: In March 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.006 million and 2.915 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and 37%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 8.2%. From January to March, automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.47 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and 11.2%. New - energy vehicle production and sales were 3.182 million and 3.075 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 50.4% and 47.1% [57]. - **Real - estate Market**: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In March 2025, the real - estate completion area was 131 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.3%, and the new - construction area decreased by 24.4% year - on - year [60]. Other Elements - **Inventory**: As of April 25, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 452,100 tons, a weekly decrease of 56,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 203,500 tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 54,800 tons to 116,800 tons; COMEX copper inventory increased by 8,850 tons to 132,000 tons. As of April 24, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 88,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous week [62]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Position**: As of April 22, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 24,765 lots, an increase of 5,288 lots week - on - week. Non - commercial long positions were 78,607 lots, up 3,145 lots week - on - week, and non - commercial short positions were 53,842 lots, down 2,143 lots week - on - week. Although the non - commercial long position reached a four - month low, it remained in a net - long state [66]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of April 25, the LME copper spot discount was 16.41 US dollars per ton. The LME copper spot premium and discount fluctuated. In China, the social inventory decreased rapidly. The domestic spot premium is expected to rise above 200 yuan per ton before the May Day holiday [76]. - **Basis**: As of April 25, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals average price of copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 840 yuan per ton [78].