Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows some resilience with the May unemployment rate in line with expectations and non - farm payrolls slightly exceeding expectations, leading to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts and a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The ongoing US - Japan trade negotiations have no results, and internal US uncertainties are increasing, which is expected to have a significant impact on the global economy [6]. - Overseas tariff policies and US internal instability factors are increasing, which will likely affect global assets. In the short term, the market will return to fundamentals. Domestically, demand is entering the off - season, putting upward pressure on prices in the medium term. However, the social inventory is decreasing and at a low level, and spot merchants are eager to support prices, with high premiums providing strong support for the market. It is expected that the main 07 contract will fluctuate within the range of 19,600 - 20,200 yuan/ton, with a higher probability of short - term weakness. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 20,000, and industrial players are advised to purchase as needed [8]. Alumina - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May, the in - production capacity increased by 2.1 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly. The domestic arrival volume of ore remained normal, and the departure volume from Guinea was also normal [9]. - In April 2025, China's alumina net exports were 249,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease, with 13 consecutive months of net exports. Import shifted to a small profit [9]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Profit - The current smelting cost of alumina is 3,046 yuan per ton, with a profit of 269 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The latest price of caustic soda is 3,730 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton [9]. Suggestion - The impact of Guinea's ore - end policy on sentiment has eased, and the market has fallen after a surge. It is recommended to take a long - position in the 09 contract on dips and a short - position in the 07 contract on rallies. The position volume of the variety is 450,000 lots, with 320,000 lots in the 09 contract. Although the funds have flowed out compared to the previous week, the volume is still relatively high, and large fluctuations are expected [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.139 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65% and a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.22%, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In April, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import in April was 236,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30,600 tons and a month - on - month increase of 23,700 tons [54][56]. - In April, China's scrap aluminum imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The cumulative scrap aluminum imports from January to April were 697,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [63]. Demand - In April 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The cumulative output this year was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [65]. - In April 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The cumulative output this year was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [68]. Cost - The domestic alumina spot price declined slightly from the high level and remained volatile at a high level, while the overseas spot price was stable in the short term [71]. - The pre - baked anode price was 5,675 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton, about 0.26% [74]. - The price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,710 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 230 yuan/ton, about 2.3%. The price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 260 yuan/ton, about 3.15% [77]. Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost is 17,021 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The overall profit is 3,279 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 54 yuan/ton [80]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum is 1,132 yuan/ton, a weekly slight narrowing of 5 yuan/ton [83]. Inventory - As of June 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 503,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 6,000 tons and a decrease of 17,000 tons within the week. The inventory is at a historically low level, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down [86]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China is in the range of 20,100 - 20,340 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and as downstream demand enters the off - season, the upward pressure on prices increases, and the spot premium decreases slightly. However, due to the low social inventory, spot merchants still have the will to support prices [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of domestic and international soybean - related products moved slightly upward, while palm oil stopped rising and consolidated, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil broke downward. The expected increase in production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in May, along with the increase in production and exports at the beginning of June, and the supply - demand growth in Indonesia in March, indicate that the supply side pressure is gradually increasing. The demand side shows a significant increase in India's palm oil imports in May and continued improvement in exports in June. With the progress of China - Canada talks, the market sentiment has eased, and rapeseed oil has oscillated after a rapid decline. The supply and demand of palm oil in the producing areas are both increasing, lacking clear direction, and it is difficult for palm oil to rise or fall in the short term. The strength of rapeseed oil and palm oil has reversed in the short term, and the spread in September has significantly narrowed. It is advisable to hold the strategy of widening the spread cautiously [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Palm oil: Supply and demand in the palm - producing areas are both increasing, and with the easing of China - Canada relations, the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil has given back its previous gains. In the producing areas, institutions expect a 3% increase in Malaysian palm oil production, a 17.9% increase in exports, and a 7.74% increase in inventory in May. At the beginning of June, production increased by 19% and exports by 3%. In Indonesia, the palm oil inventory at the end of March was 2.04 million tons. In the domestic market, the spot trading volume of soybean oil was average last week, while that of palm oil slightly increased. The supply increase led to the accumulation of soybean oil inventory to 750,000 tons and palm oil inventory to 360,000 tons. In terms of strategy, the sowing of new - season US soybeans is nearly complete with a high good - rate, and CBOT soybeans are trading around the 1050 mark. The supply side pressure is increasing as the producing areas are in the production - increasing cycle and will reach the production peak in the third quarter. The demand side shows that India's palm oil imports increased significantly in May, and the export situation in June has continued to improve. With the progress of China - Canada talks, the market sentiment has eased, and rapeseed oil has oscillated after a rapid decline. The supply and demand of palm oil in the producing areas are both increasing, and it is difficult for palm oil to rise or fall in the short term. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil has significantly narrowed, and it is advisable to hold the strategy of widening the spread cautiously [7]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price centers of domestic and international soybean - related products moved slightly upward, domestic and international palm oil stopped rising and consolidated, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil broke downward [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending June 1, the US soybean sowing progress was 84% (market expectation: 86%, previous year: 77%, five - year average: 80%), the emergence rate was 63% (previous year: 53%, five - year average: 57%), and the good - rate was 67% (market expectation: 68%). As of the week ending June 3, about 16% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 17% the previous week. The Brazilian soybean premium rebounded to around 70 cents per bushel at the beginning of June [11][12]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In April, the production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil all increased. In May, institutions expect a 3% increase in production to 1.74 million tons, a 17.9% increase in exports to 1.3 million tons, and a 7.74% increase in inventory to 2.01 million tons. At the beginning of June, production increased by 19.09% and exports increased by 2.63%. [18][22]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In March, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.8 million tons, exports were 2.88 million tons, consumption was 2.1 million tons, and inventory decreased to 2.04 million tons. From January to April, Indonesia exported 6.41 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a year - on - year decrease of 5.37% [23]. - **Indian Market**: In May, India's edible oil imports increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Among them, palm oil imports increased by 87% to 600,000 tons. India has halved the basic import tariff on crude edible oil to 10% since May 31 [28][31]. - **Domestic Oilseed Pressing**: Last week, rapeseed oil broke downward, and the spot and futures crushing profits of imported rapeseed dropped below zero. The inversion of domestic palm oil import profits continued to narrow. The oil mill's soybean crushing capacity reached 2.2 - 2.3 million tons in late May and early June, the highest in the past three years. The soybean inventory was 5.6 - 5.9 million tons and is expected to continue rising. The rapeseed crushing capacity in late May was 90,000 tons, and the rapeseed inventory increased slightly to 230,000 tons [33][36][40]. - **Domestic Oil Inventory**: As of the end of May, soybean oil inventory increased to 750,000 tons, rapeseed oil inventory was stable at around 840,000 tons, palm oil inventory rebounded to 360,000 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 1.81 million tons, compared with 1.7 million tons in the previous year [43]. - **Domestic Oil Spot Price and Trading Volume**: Last week, the spot prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated within a narrow range, while rapeseed oil declined. As of June 6, the price of soybean oil was 7,998 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.57% from the previous week; the price of palm oil was 8,617 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.14%; the price of rapeseed oil was 9,424 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The trading volume of soybean oil decreased, while that of palm oil maintained a rigid demand. The trading volume of soybean oil was 59,000 tons (previous week: 75,200 tons), palm oil was 3,610 tons (previous week: 2,963 tons), and rapeseed oil was 1,000 tons (previous week: 5,000 tons) [46][48]. 3.4 Spread Tracking No relevant content provided other than the title.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices strengthened at the end of the week after fluctuations, with tariff expectation pricing disturbing the market again. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to stronger tariff expectations for copper, but this driver is not strong enough to sustain the upward trend of the market. The US economy is waiting for "hard data", with the manufacturing sector declining, and attention should be paid to changes in employment conditions. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive", but the interest rate is still at a restrictive level, and the next rate cut may be a "recessionary rate cut" [5][85]. - The problem of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, and the refined copper output in May reached a new high. Domestic demand has seasonally weakened, the copper product operating rate has declined, and the momentum for further destocking of social inventories has weakened. Currently, the copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games. After the price increase of COMEX copper, the price relationship is COMEX copper > LME copper > Shanghai copper, and the domestic spot buying has weakened [6][86]. - It is recommended to consider selling CALL options for the near - month contracts and buying PUT options for the far - month contracts [6][86]. Summary by Directory Macro - level - In May, the European manufacturing PMI was stable, and the US manufacturing PMI rebounded. The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, up 0.4% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing increased by 0.4% to 48.8%, and France's manufacturing increased by 0.8% to 49.5%. The US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3%, up 2.1 percentage points month - on - month. China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but it has been below the boom - bust line for two consecutive months, and the demand side is under pressure due to tariff games [12]. - The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to stronger tariff expectations for copper, and the price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper has widened to over $1000, but the driving force is not as strong as the previous time [5][13][85]. Industry Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In December 2024, the global copper mine output was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%, and the annual output in 2024 was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In March 2025, the global copper mine output was 1.969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.69%. The global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons in March 2025 and 180,000 tons in February [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrates and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import was 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In April 2025, China imported 2.924 million tons of copper concentrates and its ores; from January to April 2025, the cumulative import was 10.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [24]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - As of June 6, the copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - $43.29 per dry ton, an increase of $0.27 from the previous period. The second mid - year negotiation between Chinese smelters and Antofagasta has not started yet [28]. Refined Copper Output - In May, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China increased by 12,600 tons month - on - month, a rise of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. From January to May, the cumulative output increased by 544,800 tons, a rise of 11.09%. It is estimated that the output in June will decrease by 7,200 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.63%, but a year - on - year increase of 126,100 tons, a rise of 12.55% [36]. Refined Copper Imports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%; in December 2024, the import was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%; in December 2024, the export was 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In April 2025, China imported 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper, a month - on - month decrease of 19.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.97% [42]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap and waste, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In 2024, the cumulative import was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In April 2025, the import of copper scrap and waste was 204,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92% but a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import was 777,000 tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.81% [45]. Refined - Scrap Spread - In May, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 29.92%, lower than the expected 32.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.13%. In June, as orders approach the delivery period, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises may increase slightly [48]. Consumption - end - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, the cumulative power investment from January to December was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and the grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative power investment was 193.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and the grid investment was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [52]. - **Air - conditioners**: In December 2024, the monthly output of air - conditioners was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; from January to December 2024, the cumulative output was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to April 2025, the output was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, with a decreasing growth rate [56]. - **Automobiles**: In April 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.619 million and 2.59 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. In April 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% and 44.2% respectively. From January to April 2025, the production and sales were 4.429 million and 4.3 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 48.3% and 46.2% respectively [60]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, the cumulative real estate completion area from January to December was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In April 2025, the completion area was 156 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%, and the new construction area decreased by 23.8% year - on - year [62]. Other Elements Inventory - As of June 6, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 427,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,614 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 132,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 1,613 tons to 107,400 tons; COMEX copper inventory increased by 7,250 tons to 187,900 tons. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 58,000 tons as of June 5, an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous week [65]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of June 3, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 24,094 lots, a weekly increase of 1,513 lots. The non - commercial long position was 71,249 lots, a weekly increase of 1,305 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 47,155 lots, a weekly decrease of 208 lots [69]. Premium and Discount - As of June 6, the LME copper spot premium was $69.84 per ton. The LME copper spot has turned to a premium and is rising. Attention should be paid to the potential risk of a short squeeze in the LME market. The domestic spot market has a large price difference between different brands, and attention should be paid to the risk of an expanded monthly spread next week [79]. Basis - As of June 6, 2025, the basis between the average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper and the continuous third - month contract was 80 yuan per ton [81].

目 录 第一部分：核心观点 第二部分：产业基本面供给端 第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 研究员：潘保龙 投资咨询号：Z0019697 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 核心观点 宏观：6月7日讯，美联储哈克表示，在美国金融体系面临日益增长的挑战之际，赤字必须受到控制，对当前政府财政状况"非常担忧"。哈 克还表示："在关键数据方面，我们正变得越来越盲目。我们担忧经济数据的质量正在下降。不确定性使得预测货币政策前景变得非常困难 。但在不确定性之中，今年晚些时候美联储仍有可能降息。 基本面：上周锌价延续震荡整理走势，宏观方面相对平淡，进入6月份，传统淡季趋近，关注社库拐点。从大的基本面格局看，供给端锌矿 周期性供给转宽正在落地，2025年内外几个大的锌矿项目均有增产安排，全球锌矿产量回升带动锌矿现货TC边际持续走强。矿端增产传导至 冶炼端，在冶炼利润回暖之下，国内炼厂开工率提升，延期检修，精炼锌产量边际恢复，且预计矿端和冶炼端的增产形势会延续下去。需求 一侧，贸易争端可能拖累全球经济增速，锌需求总量存收缩隐忧，即使各国快速达成新的贸易协议，全球经济增速维持韧性，锌的总需求也 难有增量预期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, corn prices showed a volatile trend. In the international market, recent favorable weather in US corn - growing regions is conducive to the completion of corn sowing and growth. The phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on the 5th released positive signals again. Coupled with the net export sales of 110,200 tons of US corn last week meeting expectations, US corn prices were volatile. In the domestic market, winter wheat is gradually being harvested from north to south. As of June 5th, the national winter wheat harvest progress reached 52.32%. Due to the generally low opening prices, reserves in many areas have started to enter the market to purchase wheat, which will support wheat prices. Currently, there is little remaining corn inventory, and with slower shipments from traders, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong processing enterprises remains low. In the short - term, domestic corn spot prices fluctuate. In terms of demand, feed enterprises currently have relatively sufficient inventories. The off - season of aquaculture demand restricts restocking, and feed enterprises purchase as needed. Meanwhile, the corn processing industry is entering an off - season, but the recovery of processing profits has slightly stimulated demand. In the short - term, domestic corn may rebound due to reduced trader shipments and the support of wheat prices from reserve purchases. In the long - term, as grain sources gradually shift to channels, channel merchants hold back supplies, port inventories are continuously consumed, imported corn remains low, and downstream demand recovers, there is still a bullish expectation for far - month corn [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - The CBOT07 corn closed at 442.00 cents per bushel this week, down 1.50 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 0.34%. The C2507 corn closed at 2,340 yuan per ton, up 4 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.17% [8]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **External Market - US Corn Weather**: In the next two weeks, rainfall in US soybean - growing regions is average, and temperatures return to normal [13]. - **External Market - US Corn Sowing**: As of the week ending June 1, 2025, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 69%, in line with market expectations, up from 68% the previous week and down from 75% in the same period last year. The US corn planting rate was 93%, also in line with expectations, up from 87% the previous week, compared with 90% last year and a five - year average of 93% [13][21]. - **External Market - US Corn Exports**: As of the week ending May 29, the net export sales of US corn for the 2025/2026 season were 942,000 tons, up from 917,000 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 season, net sales were 160,000 tons, up from 31,000 tons the previous week [13][25]. - **Domestic - Wheat Harvest**: As of June 5, the national winter wheat harvest progress was 52.32%. In Henan, nearly 85% of the harvest was completed; in Jiangsu and Shaanxi, nearly 45%; in Shanxi, nearly 20%; and in Shandong, over 15%. In Anhui, over 50% of summer sowing was completed; in Henan, over 60%; and in Shaanxi, over 20% [13][27]. - **Demand - Feed Enterprises**: As of June 5, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.35 days, a decrease of 1.19 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 3.26%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.15% [31]. - **Demand - Processing Enterprises**: From May 29 to June 4, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 551,700 tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons from the previous week. The weekly national corn starch output was 267,900 tons, a decrease of 13,200 tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 51.78%, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous week [34]. - **Demand - Processing Enterprise Inventory**: As of June 4, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 465,400 tons, an increase of 2.81% [38]. - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of May 30, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 331,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,100 tons. The shipping volume of the four northern ports that week was 657,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 206,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 114,900 tons, a decrease of 21,800 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week. The imported sorghum was 315,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 357,000 tons, a decrease of 68,000 tons from the previous week [40]. 3.3. Spread Tracking - The report mentions spread tracking including corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - corn spread, corn basis, and wheat - corn spread, but no specific data is provided [42][43][47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal continued to rebound. The global soybean fundamentals remained stable, with good weather in US soybean - growing areas, a relatively fast sowing speed, and decent good - quality rates. Brazilian soybean exports were strong, but the June export forecast of 12.55 million tons might be lower than last year. South American soybean exports squeezed the US soybean market, with last week's US soybean export net sales at only 198,000 tons, meeting expectations but decreasing month - on - month. The phone call between Chinese and US leaders on the 5th released positive signals, supporting the US soybean to close higher [6]. - In China, with the continuous increase in imported soybeans, the oil mill operating rate has returned to normal, and the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Recently, strong downstream pick - up has supported the spot soybean meal. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of oil mills have entered the accumulation cycle. The soybean inventory has risen significantly to 5.8288 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.45%. The soybean meal inventory has slightly increased to 298,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.19% or 558,100 tons [6]. - Strategy: In the short term, US soybeans will fluctuate. From May to July in China, soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate has returned to normal, and the overall spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Currently, strong downstream pick - up makes the spot market fluctuate. However, the low oil mill crushing profit supports the oil mills' sentiment to boost the soybean meal price, and the soybean meal futures market is strong. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area is basically certain, and the expected production reduction supports the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. At the same time, the development of China - US tariffs is favorable for far - term US soybeans. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal at low prices. Specifically, go long on soybean meal 09 in the range of 2900 - 3000 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of the close on June 6, the CBOT soybean closed at 1058.00 cents per bushel, up 15.75 points from last week's close, with a weekly increase of 1.51%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 3010 yuan per ton, up 42 points from last week's close, with a weekly increase of 1.42% [7] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather**: In the next two weeks, rainfall in US soybean - growing areas will be average, and the temperature will return to normal. As of the week of June 1, the US soybean good - quality rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The US soybean planting rate was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%, compared with 76% the previous week, 77% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 80%. The US soybean emergence rate was 63%, compared with 50% the previous week, 53% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57% [13][21] - **US Soybean Export**: As of the week of May 29, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 194,000 tons, compared with 146,000 tons the previous week; the net sales for the 2026/2027 season were 4000 tons, compared with 33,000 tons the previous week [13][25] - **Argentine Soybean**: As of June 5, the Argentine soybean harvest rate was 91%, compared with 84% last week and 92.2% in the same period last year [13][28] - **Brazilian Soybean**: The June export forecast of Brazilian soybeans is 12.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.28 million tons. As the sales pressure of Brazilian soybeans eases, the near - month soybean premium has gradually stabilized [33] Supply - In the 22nd week (May 24 - May 30), a total of 38 ships, about 2.47 million tons of soybeans, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [13][36] Demand - In the 23rd week (May 31 - June 6), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.1%, 86,300 tons lower than the forecast. The soybean meal trading volume decreased to 477,600 tons, and the pick - up volume decreased to 804,700 tons [13][39] Inventory - In the 22nd week, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all increased. The soybean inventory reached 5.8288 million tons, an increase of 222,500 tons from last week, a 3.97% increase, and a year - on - year increase of 989,800 tons, a 20.45% increase. The soybean meal inventory reached 298,000 tons, an increase of 91,100 tons from last week, a 44.03% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 558,100 tons, a 65.19% decrease [13][42] 3.3 Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the given text for detailed spread tracking analysis.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - For steel, the spot price fluctuates while the futures price rebounds from the low. Supply sees a decline in blast furnace and electric furnace production. Inventory shows a slowdown in building material destocking and an accumulation of plate stock. Demand weakens for both building materials and plates. Profits remain high for blast furnaces but narrow for electric furnaces. The basis changes little, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities. Overall, the supply - demand structure of steel will weaken next week, and the black market is expected to return to a weak downward state. The strategy is to maintain a bearish view and take partial profits when new lows are reached [6]. - For iron ore, the ore price fluctuates with the futures price rebounding from the low. Supply increases in Australian and Brazilian shipments and arrivals. Demand drops as blast furnace production declines. Inventory decreases slightly at ports and among downstream users. Shipping prices rise. The spread on the futures market narrows, and the coke - ore ratio increases. The supply improves while the demand slows down, and the industry fundamentals are still weak. Next week, it may be dragged down by the weakening of steel products and return to a downward trend. The strategy is to maintain a short - selling view, add short positions on rebounds, and hold them in the medium - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The futures price of rebar rebounds after hitting a new low this year, with the 10 - contract rising 14 to 2975. The spot price fluctuates, with rebar in East China at 3120 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week [11]. 3.1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production: The operating rate of 247 blast furnaces is 83.56%, down 0.31 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.06 percentage points year - on - year. The iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.51 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output is 241.8 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week and up 6.05 tons year - on - year [14]. - Electric furnace production: The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 76.69%, down 1.09 percentage points week - on - week and up 5.67 percentage points year - on - year. Short - process steel production shows signs of active production cuts due to difficulties in scrap collection and weak demand [20]. - Product output: Rebar production decreases by 7.05 tons, mainly due to rolling - line maintenance and the diversion of hot - metal to profiles and billets. Hot - rolled coil production increases by 9.1 tons to 328.75 tons, mainly in East and North China [23]. 3.1.3 Demand - Building materials: From May 28 to June 3, the national cement outbound volume is 315.7 tons, down 9.8% week - on - week and 25.4% year - on - year. The direct supply of infrastructure cement is 173 tons, down 7.0% week - on - week and 6.5% year - on - year. The demand drops significantly due to the college entrance examination and rainy weather [26]. - Plates: In May 2025, the monthly average working hours of major construction machinery products are 84.5 hours, down 3.86% year - on - year and 6.25% month - on - month. The monthly start - up rate is 59.5%, down 5.01 percentage points year - on - year and 2.45 percentage points month - on - month. The internal and external demand of the manufacturing industry weakens [29]. 3.1.4 Profit - Blast furnace: The profitability rate of steel mills is 58.87%, flat week - on - week and up 6.06 percentage points year - on - year. Blast furnace profits are relatively high due to coke price concessions [34]. - Electric furnace: The overall profitability of independent electric arc furnace steel mills continues to decline. The proportion of slightly profitable steel mills decreases by 4.13% week - on - week, and the proportion of loss - making steel mills increases by 8.26% week - on - week. Electric furnaces are basically in the red during peak - power periods, and the short - process loss ratio is high [34]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Rebar: Mill inventory decreases by 1.6 tons, and social inventory decreases by 8.97 tons. The destocking speed slows down, in line with the off - season characteristics [38]. - Hot - rolled coil: Mill inventory increases by 1.33 tons, mainly in North China. Total inventory increases by 6.5 tons, corresponding to increased production and weakening demand [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 10 - contract is 165, narrowing 4 from last week. It is recommended to take profits on previous positive - arbitrage positions around 100 and continue to pay attention to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread is 4, with the inversion situation reversing completely compared to last week. The near - term price is expected to fall due to the off - season, and the far - term price also faces callback risks, so the far - term price inversion cannot last [49]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread - The futures spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 117, widening 2 from last week. The spot spread is 90, widening 60 from last week. The spread is at a neutral level, and there is no obvious driving force for further narrowing, so no operation is recommended [52]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The futures price of iron ore rebounds from the low, with the 09 - contract rising 5.5 to 707.5. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rises 1 to 733 yuan/ton. Market sentiment recovers slightly, and downstream users replenish stocks normally [57]. 3.2.2 Supply - Global shipments: The current global iron ore shipment volume is 3431 tons, up 242 tons week - on - week. The weekly average in May is 3209.4 tons, basically flat compared to April and up 55 tons compared to May last year [60]. - Australia and Brazil shipments: The weekly average shipment volume from Australia is 1852.36 tons, basically flat compared to April and down 17 tons compared to May last year. The weekly average from Brazil is 793.36 tons, basically flat compared to April and up 69 tons compared to May last year [63]. - Arrivals: The arrival volume at 47 ports is 2597.4 tons, up 253 tons week - on - week. The weekly average in May is 2485.26 tons, basically flat compared to April and down 25 tons compared to May last year [66]. 3.2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills is 241.8 tons per day, down 0.11 tons per day week - on - week, up 13.36 tons per day compared to the beginning of the year, and up 6.05 tons per day year - on - year [69]. - Speculative demand: The daily average port transaction volume is 90 tons, down 2.8 tons week - on - week. Due to continuous hot - metal production cuts and weakening demand, the downstream purchasing intensity is slow [72]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The inventory at 47 ports is 14400.31 tons, down 69 tons week - on - week, down 1210 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 1137 tons lower than the same period last year [75]. - Downstream inventory: The total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills is 2532.11 tons, down 66.98 tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption is 115.57 tons, down 0.02 tons from the previous period [78]. 3.2.5 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China is 10.5 dollars/ton, up 1.6 dollars/ton week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China is 24.6 dollars/ton, up 2.6 dollars/ton week - on - week [81]. 3.2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore is 36, widening 0.5 from last week, with little change overall. The basis of the 09 - contract is at a neutral - low level, narrowing 12 last week [83]. - The coke - ore ratio is 1.92, and the rebar - ore ratio is 4.21. The coke - ore ratio widens, and the rebar - ore ratio is basically flat. Considering the overall decline of the black - series market, the spread trading fluidity is not high [86].

煤焦周度报告 20250609 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 基本面未有明显改善，双焦反弹力度不足 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 盘面低位反弹，空间预计有限；现货三轮提降落地 | | | 供给 | 焦企略有减产，整体供应仍偏高 | | | 需求 | 铁水延续小幅下滑，钢厂控制原料到货；投机情绪较弱，出口利润小幅增长，建材现货日成交量下滑 | | | 库存 | 下游降库，上游累库，总库存小幅增加 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利微增，焦炭盘面利润小幅下滑 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09小幅升水，9-1价差震荡运行 | | | 总结 | 上周焦煤供应端消息较多，蒙古国上调煤炭资源税的传闻、主产地煤矿事故频发，或引发减产的猜测；加之中美元首通话，贸易摩擦预期降温；焦煤低 位强势反弹，并带动黑色整体反弹。截至周五收盘，焦炭09合约涨2.82%至1350.5，焦煤09合约涨4.99%至778.5。焦炭方面，三轮提降落地，但 ...

关税再次生变，预计短期震荡偏弱 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国5月芝加哥PMI录得40.5，远低于预期值45和前值44.6，5月一年期通胀率预期终值录得6.6%，低于预期值7.1%，但仍属于偏高位置，滞 涨概率加大；国内汽车价格战遭到官方制止，库存偏高经济偏弱的情况下，有待相关刺激政策出台；特朗普称将把进口钢铁和铝关税翻倍至50%，多 国进行对等关税回应，贸易关税不确定性再次增强。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 供给：4月，在产产能环比减少390万吨，开工率大幅下滑；矿石端，国内到港量维持正常，几内亚出港量暂维持正常 进口： 2025年4月中国氧化铝净出口24.93万吨，环比小幅减少，连续13个月净出口；进口转为小幅盈利 需求：电解铝在产产能持续增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝目前冶炼成本在每吨2997，每吨盈利313元，成本小幅上移，利润小幅走阔；烧碱价格最新价3700元/吨，周度环比上涨50元/吨 ...

Report Title - Trade conflict eases, black commodities rebound from lows. Steel and ore weekly report (May 19, 2025) [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from the Black Industry Group of Zhengxin Futures Industry Research Center [2] Report Main Views Steel - Price: Spot prices soared, and the futures market rebounded from lows. The main contract of rebar rose 1.99% to close at 3014, and the spot price in East China reached 3210 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [6][11]. - Supply: Blast furnace production declined from its peak, while electric furnace production stopped falling and rebounded. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points week-on-week. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 75.2%, up 2.47 percentage points week-on-week [6][14][22]. - Inventory: Building material inventories were depleted at an accelerated pace, and plate inventories decreased simultaneously. Rebar mill inventories decreased by 3.28 tons week-on-week, and social inventories decreased by 30.48 tons. Hot-rolled coil mill inventories decreased by 6.58 tons, and social inventories decreased by 10.97 tons [6][39][43]. - Demand: Building material demand increased month-on-month, and plate demand remained resilient. From May 8th to May 14th, the national cement delivery volume was 3.5835 million tons, up 7.5% month-on-month. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils remained high due to the 90-day export rush [6][28][31]. - Profit: Blast furnace profits continued to expand, and electric furnace profits at off-peak hours turned positive. The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, up 0.44 percentage points week-on-week. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was -81 yuan/ton, and the off-peak profit was 24 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week-on-week [6][36]. - Basis: The basis narrowed slightly, and attention was paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities. The basis of rebar 10 contract narrowed by 10 compared with last week [6][47]. - Summary: The easing of trade conflicts has digested the bullish factors, and the market may return to seasonal characteristics. Maintain a medium-term shorting strategy. Hold existing short positions and consider shorting lightly for those with no positions [6]. Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. The main contract of iron ore rose 4.6% to close at 728, and the spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port rose 11 yuan to 765 yuan/ton [6][59]. - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and arrivals decreased simultaneously. The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.29 million tons, down 220,000 tons week-on-week. The 47-port iron ore arrival volume was 25.7 million tons, down 640,000 tons week-on-week [6][62][68]. - Demand: Blast furnace production declined, but demand remained at a relatively high level. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4477 million tons, down 8,700 tons week-on-week [6][70][71]. - Inventory: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories declined simultaneously. The 47-port iron ore inventory was 147.4699 million tons, down 180,000 tons week-on-week. The imported sinter powder inventory of 114 steel mills was 27.1467 million tons, down 443,300 tons week-on-week [6][78][81]. - Shipping: Shipping prices rebounded. The freight rate from Western Australia to China was 7.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.3 US dollars/ton week-on-week. The freight rate from Brazil to China was 18.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars/ton week-on-week [6][84]. - Spread: The futures spread widened, and the coke-to-ore ratio dropped significantly. The 9-1 spread of iron ore was 36, up 10 compared with last week. The coke-to-ore ratio was 1.99, and the rebar-to-ore ratio was 4.25, both narrowing [6][87][90]. - Summary: Last week, supply and demand both declined month-on-month. Affected by macro shocks, ore prices rebounded strongly. Considering the drag of finished products in the off-season, the probability of further price increases is low. Maintain a long-term bearish view and pay attention to trading opportunities when prices fall back to previous lows [6].