Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The long - term strategic allocation value of gold is high due to the ongoing global order reshaping, while short - term uncertainties are numerous [1]. - Silver will have a strong oscillation. With gold's high - level adjustment, there is a potential for silver to make up for the price increase, but it requires the cooperation of multiple forces to continue rising [1]. - Copper will be in a high - level consolidation. Short - term copper long positions should take profit, and there is a risk of a high - level decline, but the long - term outlook for copper remains positive [1]. - Zinc will have a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, it will be in a low - level oscillation, and in the long - term, it has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities for shorting on rallies should be grasped [1]. - Lead and tin and aluminum and nickel will face pressure on rebounds. For lead, new production capacity is increasing supply while consumption is weak; for tin, short - term supply is tight but prices are under pressure after a rebound; for aluminum, inventory is accumulating and consumption is entering the off - season; for nickel, cost support is weakening and downstream inventory is accumulating [1]. - Industrial silicon and lithium carbonate should be shorted on rebounds. For industrial silicon, there are concerns about oversupply; for lithium carbonate, supply pressure is large and demand is in the off - season [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices oscillated at a high level because US employment data was low but consumption data was positive, and the Chinese central bank continued to buy gold, with no concentrated outbreak of systemic risk factors in the short - term [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment and consumption data were mixed. The Chinese central bank continued to increase its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month. There was a potential for Russia to retaliate against Ukraine. In the short - term, geopolitical variables were large, and in the long - term, the trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - loose fiscal and monetary policies remained unchanged, and the bull market was not over [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, pay attention to the support at 765 and control positions for long - term investment. For silver, short - term long positions can wait for an opportunity to enter, relying on the level of 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated and consolidated at a high level [5]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply was tight. Domestic electrolytic copper production increased in May but was expected to decline in June. COMEX copper was draining global copper inventory, and there was a risk of a soft squeeze. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and overseas Russian copper flowed into domestic ports, causing the premium and spot premium to decline [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the better - than - expected US non - farm employment data and the slight rebound of the US dollar index, it is recommended to take profit on previous copper long positions at high levels. Be vigilant about the risk of a decline. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of [77900, 79200] for Shanghai copper and [9600, 9800] dollars/ton for London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc was in a low - level consolidation, oscillating weakly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply was expected to be looser. The domestic zinc ore processing fee increased in June. The output of refined zinc decreased in May but was expected to increase in June. Downstream demand weakened, and the start - up rate of zinc - related enterprises decreased, affected by the weak steel demand [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, zinc will be in a low - level consolidation and oscillate weakly. In the long - term, with increasing supply and weak demand, opportunities for shorting on rallies should be grasped. Attention should be paid to the range of [22000, 22600] for Shanghai zinc and [2600, 2700] dollars/ton for London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina prices declined again [10]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment was uncertain. The cost decreased in May, and inventory changes showed a mixed trend. The demand side entered the off - season. For alumina, the overseas bauxite supply was stable, the operating capacity increased in June, and the inventory accumulated slightly [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19800 - 20500]. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas, the macro - environment was uncertain. The increase in the shipment of Philippine nickel ore and the decrease in Indonesian nickel ore prices weakened cost support. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel was still in an oversupply situation, and the social inventory was relatively high. For stainless steel, it entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure increased [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 125000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 reduced positions for 5 consecutive days and closed slightly higher [13]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply pressure was still large, and although overseas imports decreased, domestic smelters did not significantly reduce production. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and only the energy storage end provided some support. The production of lithium carbonate recovered quickly, and the expectation of inventory accumulation increased, and the sustainability of the short - term rebound was questionable [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the range of [60000 - 61500] [14].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment ratings provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - The macro - sentiment improvement has limited impact on the supply - demand of the black - series commodities. Different varieties have different trends: steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) may return to range - bound operation; iron ore is short - term bullish; coke and coking coal will likely be in a volatile market; ferroalloys (manganese silicon and ferrosilicon) are expected to run weakly with limited macro - boost [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: In a state of weak supply and demand, strong exports ease the supply pressure of high hot - metal production, but there is still some shipping pressure on the raw material side. After the emotional trading fades, it will return to range - bound operation within [2940, 2980] [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Production is rising, apparent demand is falling, inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase. Exports may decline later, and the overall surplus in the black - chain suppresses the market. It will also return to range - bound operation within [3050, 3090] [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, the demand for iron ore is still supported by steel mill profits, although hot - metal production is decreasing. Supply has increased in both arrivals and shipments, while port and steel mill inventories have decreased. Near - term supply - demand is slightly weak. With positive news from China - US talks, the short - term market is bullish. Unilateral short positions should be reduced, and the price range is [690, 730] [1][8][9]. Coke - Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts, reducing coke - producer profits. Although there is some production reduction, overall production is still high, and the operating rate is at a high level. Hot - metal production above 240 million tons guarantees certain demand, but steel mills are cautious in purchasing coke. The overall inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply - demand is loose. After the macro - sentiment trading fades, it will return to a volatile market within [1320, 1350] [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal production is still at a high level, and there is no large - scale production reduction at the current price. Mine inventories are rising, and the upstream shipping pressure persists. The supply - demand is loose. The macro - sentiment boost is limited, and the rebound is unsustainable. It will return to a volatile market within [760, 790] [1][13][14]. Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Although hot - metal production is high, actual demand may be under pressure due to the off - season. The cost support is insufficient, and inventory pressure may increase after factory复产. Before the fundamentals improve significantly, the price will be under pressure, with a price range of [5420, 5650]. - **Ferrosilicon**: There is an expectation of cost - support weakening. With production resumption in the producing areas, supply may increase, and factory inventories are relatively high. The overall upward driving force is insufficient, and it is expected to run weakly within [5000, 5200] [1][16][17].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 尽管中美元首通话，但是美国大规模国债拍卖在即继美国数据走弱，都对黄金 | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 价格有支撑。短期不确定性仍然较多，关注风险事件是否再次集中爆发。长期 | | | | 看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【770-797】 | | | | 相关数据提高美国降息预期，另外中美通话或带来关税缓和的猜想。风险偏好 | | 白银 | 强势上冲 | 上升，白银破前高，不过白银弹性大，继续上冲需要多方力量配合，背靠区间 | | | | 上沿等待做多。【8520-9000】 | | | | 中美首领通电，市场情绪积极，风险偏好回升，建议前期多单继续持有，部分逢高 | | 铜 | 部分止盈 | 止盈兑现，卖出套保把握逢高布局机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【78000， | | | | 79500】 | | 锌 | 区间震荡 | 国内宏观政策窗口期，锌供应产能高位释放，需求淡季来临和钢材拖累，锌低 | | | | 位震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线整理蓄势 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | 豆粕 | | | | | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪，但实际减产预计有限。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面偏空， | | | | 看多暂以技术性反弹对待，也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。3000 元至 3070 元区间 | | | | 未来两周阻力较大。主力【2925，2985】 | | 菜粕 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Steel: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have a short - term rebound [3][4][5]. - Iron ore: Due to macro - level benefits, the short - term market is expected to be strong, and short - selling positions should be reduced [7][8][9]. - Coke: The market sentiment has improved, and there may be a short - term rebound [10][12][13]. - Coking coal: Market sentiment improvement may lead to a short - term rebound [14][16][17]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term prices are under pressure [18][19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Variety Views - Rebar: In a state of weak supply and demand, strong exports relieve supply pressure, while the raw material end has shipment pressure. The real - world fundamentals have not improved significantly, but may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - atmosphere [1][4]. - Hot - rolled coil: Output has increased, apparent demand has declined, and inventory has started to increase. Exports may decline later, and the overall surplus in the black chain suppresses the market. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - atmosphere [1]. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices: Rebar 01 is 2951 with a decline of 19; Rebar 05 is 2952 with a decline of 14; Rebar 10 is 2959 with a decline of 15. Hot - rolled coil 01 is 3075 with a decline of 15; Hot - rolled coil 05 is 3072 with a decline of 16; Hot - rolled coil 10 is 3077 with a decline of 20 [2]. - Spot prices: Tangshan billet is 2880 with a decline of 20. Rebar prices in different regions range from 3100 - 3220, and hot - rolled coil prices range from 3120 - 3400 [2]. - Basis and spreads: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spots have different changes [2]. Iron Ore Variety Views - Fundamentally, iron ore demand is supported by steel enterprise profits, but the short - term supply - demand structure is neutral to weak. Due to positive news from Sino - US talks, the short - term market is strong [1][8]. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices: Iron ore 01 is 665 with a decline of 1; Iron ore 05 is 647 with a decline of 2; Iron ore 09 is 701 with a decline of 4 [6]. - Spot prices: PB powder is 728 with a decline of 5; Yangdi powder is 620 with a decline of 5; BRBF powder is 749 with a decline of 5 [6]. - Spreads and basis: Different spreads and basis of iron ore futures and spots have various changes [6]. Coke Variety Views - Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts, reducing coke enterprise profits. Although there is some production reduction, overall output is still high. Demand is guaranteed to some extent, but procurement is cautious. The overall inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved macro - sentiment [1][12]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Coke 1 - month contract is 1358.5 with a decline of 17.5; Coke 5 - month contract is 1363.0 with a decline of 19.5; Coke 9 - month contract is 1342.0 with a decline of 25.5 [11]. - Spot prices: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1100 with no change; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke is 1340 with no change [11]. - Weekly data: Data such as capacity utilization, output, and inventory of coke have different changes [11]. Coking Coal Variety Views - Domestic coking coal production is still at a relatively high level, and there is no large - scale production reduction. Mine inventory is rising, and the supply - demand is loose. It may rebound in the short - term due to improved market sentiment [1][16]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Coking coal 1 - month contract is 773.0 with a decline of 13.0; Coking coal 5 - month contract is 802.5 with a decline of 2.0; Coking coal 9 - month contract is 757.0 with a decline of 11.0 [15]. - Spot prices: Lvliang main coking coal is 1150 with no change; Gujiao main coking coal is 1020 with no change [15]. - Weekly data: Data such as wash - coal plant开工率, output, and inventory of coking coal have different changes [15]. Ferroalloys Variety Views - Manganese silicon: The production reduction space in the production area is limited, and some factories may resume production. The manganese ore market is weak, and some mines' far - month quotes have a slight increase. It may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term price is under pressure [1][19]. - Ferrosilicon: There is an expectation of electricity price reduction, and some enterprises have resumed production. The current supply is at a low level, and the inventory is being reduced. It may rebound in the short - term affected by the black series, but the medium - term price is under pressure [1][19]. Price and Data - Futures prices: Manganese silicon 01 is 5514 with a decline of 28; Manganese silicon 05 is 2238 with a decline of 38; Manganese silicon 09 is 5482 with a decline of 20. Ferrosilicon 01 is 5110 with a decline of 48; Ferrosilicon 05 is 5140 with a decline of 34; Ferrosilicon 09 is 5102 with a decline of 44 [18]. - Spot prices: Silicon - manganese 6517 in different regions is 5300 - 5450, and ferrosilicon 72 in different regions is 5230 - 5300 [18]. - Weekly data: Data such as enterprise开工率, output, and inventory of ferroalloys have different changes [18].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线整理蓄势 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 | | | | 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | 豆粕 | | 空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪，但实际减产预计有限。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面偏空， | | | | 看多暂以技术性反弹对待，也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。3000 元至 3070 元区间 | | | | 未来两周阻力较大。主力【2920，2985】 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 震荡 | 地缘风险、旺季预期 VSOPEC+增产，油价盘整。近期，乌克兰先后袭击 | | 原油 | | 俄罗斯空军基地和克里米亚大桥，俄乌冲突升温；OPEC+7 月继续增产 41.1 | | | | 万桶/日符合市场预期，夏季原油消费旺季即将到来，近月下方存支撑。策 | | | | 略：下有支撑，上方有限，卖看涨期权。关注区间：SC【455-475】 | | | | 下游利润改善，仓单压力下降，液化气震荡偏强。成本端油价短期受地缘 和消费旺季带动，走势震荡偏强；近期仓单连续下降，盘面压力下降；供 | | LPG | 震荡偏强 | | | | | 需双增，炼厂检修逐渐结束，供给量上升，下游 PDH 装置利润好转，开 | | | | 工有上升预期。策略：轻仓试多。关注区间：PG【4065-4130】 | | | | 焦煤带动煤化工品种集体反弹，PE 煤制占比 21%，但基差显著走弱，华 | | | | 北基差为-19（环比-86），盘面减仓反弹。国内停车比例维持在 15%以上 | | L | 高空 | 的偏高水平， ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 震荡 | 螺纹钢近期供需相对平衡，变化不大。铁水产量绝对水平仍然较高，钢材 | | | | 整体供应偏宽松。建材消费马上进入淡季，在钢厂利润持续较好背景下， | | 螺纹钢 | | 后期供需存在宽松预期。另外原料供应持续存在供应压力，成本持续下降， | | | | 拖累钢材表现，中期延续偏弱趋势，短期在持续下行后或进入震荡状态。 | | | | 【2950，2990】 | | 热卷 | 震荡 | 热卷供需目前相对平衡，库存继续去化。出口虽仍不错，但后期存在回落 | | | | 可能。黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现，随着铁水产量见顶，成 | | | | 本端面临进一步的宽松压力。短期或低位震荡，但中期下行趋势难以改变。 | | | | 【3060，3100】 | | 铁矿石 | 中性偏弱 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双增，港口钢厂库存双降。近端铁矿供需结构中性偏弱，后 | | | | 期来看，终端需求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场对突发性、非系统性风险的敏感度下降，情绪释放速度加快，未来地缘关 | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 税变得更加复杂，短期不确定性仍然较多，关注风险事件是否再次集中爆发。 | | | | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【770-797】 | | | | | | | | | | 白银基本面，目前全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，各国财政 | 白银 | 宽幅震荡 | 关税对冲关税带来的负面影响，白银跟随黄金波动，价格没有摆脱此前区间， | | | | | | | 操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8550】 | | | | | | | | | | 美国制造业数据低于预期，ADP | 就业不佳，特朗普威逼美联储降息，美元指数走弱， | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 铜围绕 | 7 | 万 | 8 | 关口震荡，前期多单继续持有，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, with strategic allocation value due to complex geopolitical and tariff situations, and central bank gold - buying expectations [1]. - Silver will follow gold's fluctuations and trade in a wide range, as global economic demand may decline and supply changes are small [1]. - Copper is recommended to be bought on dips in the short - term and is bullish in the long - term, considering strong US employment, tight global copper mines, and its strategic importance [1][5]. - Zinc is likely to have limited upside space, with a supply - increase and demand - decrease trend in the long - term, suggesting short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][8]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to the approaching off - season and supply - demand factors, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1][9]. - Nickel prices will face pressure on rebounds, with supply pressure and high inventory, and short - selling on rallies is advised [1][11]. - Lithium carbonate prices will have limited rebound space due to supply - demand imbalance and falling ore prices, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1][13]. Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Tariff changes, geopolitical uncertainties, and future interest - rate cut expectations support gold prices. The US economic growth forecast is lowered, the Russia - Ukraine situation escalates, and tariff policies are complex [2]. - **Strategy**: Long positions can be arranged in the gold market, with position control for long - term investment. Silver will follow gold, with a short - term trading range of [8200, 8550] [1][3]. Copper - **Market Situation**: Overseas copper mines are in short supply, and there are risks of soft squeeze - out of inventory. The US employment market is strong, reducing recession concerns and increasing risk appetite [4][5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, buy copper on dips with light positions. Long - term, be bullish on copper. The short - term trading range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79000], and for London copper is [9500, 9800] USD/ton [5]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc ore supply is loosening, and downstream demand is weakening, with zinc enterprises'开工 rates falling and being affected by weak steel demand [7]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, zinc has limited upside. In the long - term, short - sell on rallies. The trading range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2650, 2780] USD/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: The off - season dominates the market. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, but demand is showing signs of weakening. Alumina supply is in surplus [9]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell aluminum on rallies, and pay attention to inventory changes. The trading range for Shanghai aluminum is [19800 - 20500], and alumina will trade in a low - level range [9]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: The cost support for nickel is weakening, and supply pressure is significant. Stainless steel inventory is high, and consumption is entering the off - season [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rallies, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The trading range for nickel is [118000 - 125000] [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Supply exceeds demand, ore prices are falling, and although some enterprises are reducing production, it cannot reverse the oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies, with a trading range of [59240 - 61000] [13].