. | . | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 周末 ProFarmer 公布最终美豆单产调研结果，预计单产为 53 蒲式耳，小于美农 8 | | 豆粕 | 短线止跌整理 | 月预计，偏利多。美豆地区降雨低于正常水平。前日豆粕小幅收跌，技术上有止跌 | | ★ | | 整理反弹的意图。但美豆收获逐步临近，看多暂以短线投机性反弹对待。 | | | | 高库存，高仓单现实，中澳贸易改善令近日市场炒作情绪有所降温。上周中加会晤 | | 菜粕 | 短线止跌整理 | 后，尚未有新的进展出现。菜粕前日小幅收跌，关注中澳后续进展以及加方对于中 | | ★ | | 国反倾销结果是否存在意图改善行为。 | | 棕榈油 | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。前日反弹，关注技术企稳看多机会。关注 8 月马棕榈 | | | | 油库存最终预估情况。 | | | | 现货端，进入 9 月现货价格逐步抬升，虽供应压力依旧存在，但需求好转的预期下 | | 豆油 | 短线调 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美联储独立性被质疑，美国数据支持降息，特兰普关税被裁定不合法，9 月份降息在 | | ★★★ | 做多 | 即，关注区间上方 803、810 附近表现。中长期，主要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续 | | | | 买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄金有资产配置需求。长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | | | 短期白银跟随黄金市场波动，资金流入较多，破历史新高，白银自身由于双宽政策 | | 白银 | 做多 | 积极，中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化，使得需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，供需 | | ★★ | | 缺口明显，白银向上趋势不变。但是谨防短期美元流动性风险 | | | | 宏微共振，沪铜重回 8 万大关，建议多单继续持有，新入场回调轻仓试多，中长期， | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看好。 | | ★★ | | | | | | 宏观和板块情绪积极，沪锌跟涨外盘，但国内需求疲软库存累库叠加政策真空期， | | 锌 | 反弹沽空 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Short-term rebound [3] - Coke: Weak in the medium term, fluctuating in the short term [8] - Coking Coal: Weak in the medium term, fluctuating in the short term [12] - Ferroalloys: Short-term technical rebound, prices under pressure in the medium term [16] Core Views - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coils)** - Rebar: Currently, blast furnace profits have declined but remain positive. Hot metal production is stable at a high level and may decrease due to pre-parade production restrictions. Demand has increased month-on-month but is still lower than production, leading to rising inventories and a more relaxed supply-demand balance. In the medium term, there is room for a decline, but there may be a short-term rebound after continuous downward movement [1][4]. - Hot-rolled coils: Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month-on-month, and inventories have increased slightly. The overall supply-demand situation of steel is becoming more relaxed, with limited short-term positive factors. In the medium term, there is a risk of decline under the weak fundamentals, but there may be a technical rebound in the short term [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are increasing. Overseas ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, resulting in a neutral to weak fundamental situation. Macro sentiment has cooled, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with ore prices fluctuating weakly [1][6]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts has been initiated, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Affected by the parade, some coke enterprises have production restriction policies, leading to a marginal contraction in supply. Hot metal production remains stable at a high level. After the recent decline in the futures market, there may be a technical rebound, but there is still a risk of decline in the medium term due to the expectation of复产 [1][10]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by the parade, safety inspections have been strengthened in some areas, and the recovery of coking coal production is slow. Although hot metal production remains high, the downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and market sentiment has weakened. Mongolian coal auctions have failed multiple times. The steel industry's stable growth policy mainly focuses on ensuring the stable supply of raw materials, with limited positive factors. In the context of the main contract trading at a premium to the warehouse receipt cost, there is a risk of a downward correction in the medium term, but there may be a rebound at key support levels in the short term [1][14]. - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)** - Ferromanganese: Weekly production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. Demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventories have decreased by 0.7 tons to 14.9 tons. Steel mills' restocking will start in September, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel procurement. The October manganese ore quotations from Comilog and Union Mining to China are the same as the previous round, and the port ore prices have not declined significantly in the short term, providing some support to the cost side. Fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a technical rebound in the short term [1][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Weekly production has decreased, demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventories have increased by 830 tons to 62,900 tons. Fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a technical rebound in the short term [1][17]. Summary by Variety Steel - **Rebar** - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts vary, with the latest prices for RB01 at 3117, RB05 at 3165, and RB10 at 3047. Spot prices also vary by region, such as 3120 in Tangshan and 3240 in Shanghai [2]. - **Analysis**: Demand has increased month-on-month but is still lower than production, leading to rising inventories. The overall supply-demand situation is becoming more relaxed, and in the medium term, there is room for a decline, but there may be a short-term rebound [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled coils** - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts vary, with the latest prices for HC01 at 3298, HC05 at 3312, and HC10 at 3310. Spot prices also vary by region, such as 3290 in Tianjin and 3350 in Shanghai [2]. - **Analysis**: Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month-on-month, and inventories have increased slightly. The overall supply-demand situation of steel is becoming more relaxed, and in the medium term, there is a risk of decline, but there may be a technical rebound in the short term [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Not provided in the text. - **Analysis**: Hot metal production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are increasing. Overseas ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, resulting in a neutral to weak fundamental situation. Macro sentiment has cooled, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with ore prices fluctuating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions [1][6][7]. Coke - **Price** - **Futures**: The latest prices for different contracts are J01 at 1596.5, J05 at 1689.0, and J09 at 1485.0 [9]. - **Spot**: The prices of different grades and regions remain stable, such as 1330 for Lvliang quasi-primary metallurgical coke ex-factory price and 1570 for Rizhao Port primary metallurgical coke FOB price [9]. - **Analysis**: The first round of price cuts has been initiated, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Affected by the parade, some coke enterprises have production restriction policies, leading to a marginal contraction in supply. Hot metal production remains stable at a high level. After the recent decline in the futures market, there may be a technical rebound, but there is still a risk of decline in the medium term due to the expectation of复产. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - **Price** - **Futures**: The latest prices for different contracts are JM01 at 1112.5, JM05 at 1159.5, and JM09 at 972.5 [13]. - **Spot**: The prices of different grades and regions remain stable, such as 1430 for Lvliang main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1%, G>75) and 1250 for Gujiao main coking coal (A<11, S<1.5%, G<65) [13]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the parade, safety inspections have been strengthened in some areas, and the recovery of coking coal production is slow. Although hot metal production remains high, the downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and market sentiment has weakened. Mongolian coal auctions have failed multiple times. The steel industry's stable growth policy mainly focuses on ensuring the stable supply of raw materials, with limited positive factors. In the context of the main contract trading at a premium to the warehouse receipt cost, there is a risk of a downward correction in the medium term, but there may be a rebound at key support levels in the short term. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][14][15]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese** - **Price** - **Futures**: The latest prices for different contracts are SM01 at 5744, SM05 at 5782, and SM09 at 5648 [16]. - **Spot**: The prices of different regions remain stable, such as 5500 for silicon manganese 6517 in Ningxia and 5650 in Guizhou [16]. - **Analysis**: Weekly production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. Demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventories have decreased by 0.7 tons to 14.9 tons. Steel mills' restocking will start in September, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel procurement. The October manganese ore quotations from Comilog and Union Mining to China are the same as the previous round, and the port ore prices have not declined significantly in the short term, providing some support to the cost side. Fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a technical rebound in the short term. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][16][17]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Price** - **Futures**: The latest prices for different contracts are SF01 at 5488, SF05 at 5622, and SF09 at 5352 [16]. - **Spot**: The prices of different regions remain stable, such as 5350 for ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia and 5300 in Ningxia [16]. - **Analysis**: Weekly production has decreased, demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventories have increased by 830 tons to 62,900 tons. Fundamental contradictions need to accumulate, and there may be a technical rebound in the short term. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][16][17].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 钢铁行业稳增长方案出台，整体利多有限。目前高炉利润较前期有所下降，但仍为正值， | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量仍在较高水平偏稳运行。需求端环比回升，但仍低于产量，库存继续增加，供 | | ★★ | 看空 | 需边际趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，政策兑现后存在继续下行风险。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需环比小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | | 看空 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。钢铁行业稳增长政策落地，利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期存 | | ★★ | | 在回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量转降，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发货增到货降，基本面中性偏弱。宏观 | | ★ | 空单持有 | 情绪降温，交易回归基本面，矿价震荡偏弱。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第一轮提降，钢焦博弈明显。当前受九三阅兵影响，部分地区焦企有限产 | | 焦炭 | 看空 | 政策，供应端边际有所收缩。铁水产量总体高位偏稳运行。当前市场"反内卷"氛围有 | | ★★ | | 所消退，中期存 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol (MEG), urea [27][30][34][41] - **Bearish Dominance**: Crude oil, LPG, PVC, methanol [1][23][37] - **Sideways with Bearish Bias**: L, PP, asphalt, glass, soda ash [14][19][3] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances do not change the oversupply situation, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties may cause price fluctuations, but the supply - side pressure is increasing, and the price has a large downward pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][4][5] - LPG: It follows the rebound of the cost - side oil price, but the fundamentals of crude oil are bearish, and there is still room for downward compression. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][8][11] - L: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the seasonal peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will gradually turn into a double - strong pattern. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [14][17] - PP: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply is still under pressure in the medium term, and the upward drive is insufficient. However, the absolute price is low, providing some support. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities [19][21] - PVC: The cost support is insufficient, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space of the disk is limited [23][25] - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but the macro - environment is expected to be loose. It is recommended to hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options [27][28][29] - PTA: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in the operating load. Later, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [30][32][33] - MEG: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [34][35][36] - Methanol: The supply - side pressure has increased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels [37][38][40] - Urea: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] - Asphalt: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - Glass: The supply is under pressure, and the demand support is insufficient. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - Soda ash: The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is mostly for rigid needs. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with Brent rising 0.99% and SC rising 0.14%. WTI had no quote due to the holiday [4] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase uncertainties. As the peak season ends, the demand support for oil prices weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increases. The US crude oil production in June reached a record high, while India's crude oil imports decreased. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the strategic reserve increased [5][6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. It is recommended to try short positions lightly and focus on the SC range of [485 - 495] [7] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 1, the PG main contract closed at 4364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4540, 4486, and 4580 yuan/ton respectively [10] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of LPG itself is not significant, and its price is mainly linked to the cost - side oil price. The geopolitical risk has increased, but the cost side still has downward space. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased, and the port inventory has decreased [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to move down. It is recommended to hold short positions and focus on the PG range of [4370 - 4470] [12] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan. The North China Ningxia Coal price was 7190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 398 [16] - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the peak season approaches in September, the supply and demand will turn into a double - strong pattern. Some devices are planned to restart, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is increasing [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to try to go long on dips and focus on the L range of [7200 - 7350] [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The East China drawn wire market price was 6895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1205 [20] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Recent device restarts and new capacity releases will increase the supply pressure. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply - demand pattern is still loose in the medium term, and the high number of warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the low absolute price, it is recommended to try short - term long positions on dips and focus on the PP range of [6900 - 7000] [21] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4907 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan. The Changzhou spot price was 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 571 [24] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of chlor - alkali is not well - supported, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. Some enterprises' maintenance has ended, and the export to India is expected to slow down [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space is limited. Focus on the V range of [4800 - 4950] [25] PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan. The PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [28] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have changed little. The PXN spread is at a relatively high level this year, and the gasoline cracking spread has increased. The demand has weakened but is expected to improve. The PX inventory has decreased but is still relatively high [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions, look for opportunities to buy on dips, and sell put options. Focus on the PX511 range of [6820 - 6950] [29] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA price in East China was 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The spot price and basis both weakened. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [31] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, and many devices are under maintenance. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. The demand is improving, and the downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating loads have stopped falling and rebounded. The PTA inventory has decreased slightly but is still relatively high [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the TA01 range of [4750 - 4810] [33] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [35] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost support still exists [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the EG01 range of [4380 - 4450] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [37] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure has increased as the domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased. The demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The cost support has weakened [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels. Focus on the MA01 range of [2345 - 2395] [40] Urea - **Market Review**: The price of the urea contract has changed slightly, and the domestic and international spot prices have been relatively stable [41] - **Basic Logic**: The urea production is expected to gradually recover in mid - September. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The factory and port inventories have been accumulating [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, the long - short game will intensify, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] Asphalt - **Core View**: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side oil price is expected to decline in the medium - long term, and the asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The spot price in Shandong has decreased significantly, and the basis is at a low level [3] Glass - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The deep - processing orders have improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased, but the distributor and factory inventories in Hebei have started to accumulate. The daily melting volume is stable, and the demand support is insufficient [3] Soda Ash - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The enterprise inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but the absolute level is still high. The upstream operating rate has declined, and the production is expected to remain high in September. The demand is mostly for rigid needs [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long position recommended (★★) [1] - Silver: Long position recommended (★★★) [1] - Copper: Hold long positions (★) [1] - Zinc: Rebound and short sell (★) [1] - Lead: Under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Under pressure (★) [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure (★) [1] - Nickel: Rebound (★★) [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish (★★★) [1] - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range fluctuation (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious metals**: Multiple factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, strong fundamentals, and tariff events have pushed silver to a 14 - year high. Gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern in the long run. Both gold and silver are in an upward long - term trend [2][3]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the demand is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. The overall copper supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait for dips to enter the market [4][5][6]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is increasing, but the demand is weak during the off - season. There is no clear one - sided driving force. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the long term [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is relatively abundant, and the inventory is still increasing. The upward movement of aluminum prices is under pressure. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [10][12][13]. - **Nickel**: Political instability in Indonesia has raised concerns about nickel ore supply. The supply and demand within the domestic nickel industry chain are divided. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [14][16][17]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The total inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, but the decline is less than expected. The market is waiting for new driving forces, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near the annual line [18][20][21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver 3.1.1 Market Review - Multiple factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, strong fundamentals, and tariff events have pushed silver to a 14 - year high [2]. 3.1.2 Basic Logic - The European Central Bank may not cut interest rates as inflation is near the target and the economy is stable. Global manufacturing in many countries is recovering, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising. The US Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 "critical minerals list" and the obvious supply - demand gap in the silver market, along with continuous capital inflows into global ETFs for 7 months, support the rise of silver. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [2]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Gold has support around 770 in the short term, and attention should be paid to the performance at recent highs of 803 and 810. Silver has support around 9530 after breaking through the historical high. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [3]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market Review - Shanghai copper is oscillating narrowly at a high level, testing the pressure at the 80,000 - yuan mark [5]. 3.2.2 Industrial Logic - The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the processing fee TC is deeply inverted. The domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September due to smelter maintenance. With the arrival of the peak season, the demand is expected to pick up. Overseas copper inventories are accumulating, but domestic exchange copper inventories are decreasing. The domestic copper social inventory is at a low level in the same period of history, and the spot circulation is tight [5]. 3.2.3 Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing long positions, and new entrants can wait for dips to enter the market. Enterprises for selling hedging can wait for high - price opportunities to lock in profits. Pay attention to the US August non - farm payroll data and beware of the risk of copper prices falling from high levels. In the long term, copper is optimistic due to its strategic importance and the growth of green copper demand [6]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Market Review - Shanghai zinc is oscillating narrowly [9]. 3.3.2 Industrial Logic - In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the processing fee is rising. Although a smelter in Guangxi will conduct maintenance, the overall supply is increasing. It is the off - season for demand, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is accumulating while the LME inventory is decreasing, with the risk of a soft squeeze still remaining [9]. 3.3.3 Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see, waiting for more macro - data guidance. In the long term, adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [9]. 3.4 Aluminum 3.4.1 Market Review - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [11]. 3.4.2 Industrial Logic - The supply of bauxite from Guinea is relatively abundant. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production is increasing slightly, and the inventory is also rising. The demand side shows a slight improvement. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [12]. 3.4.3 Strategy Recommendation - Go long on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [13]. 3.5 Nickel 3.5.1 Market Review - Nickel prices are rebounding from a low level, and stainless steel is also showing a rebound trend [15]. 3.5.2 Industrial Logic - There are expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. Political instability in Indonesia has raised concerns about nickel ore supply. The domestic nickel industry chain has a supply - demand divide, with a large supply surplus of refined nickel and a relatively tight supply of nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel inventory is gradually decreasing, but the effect of steel - mill production cuts is weakening [16]. 3.5.3 Strategy Recommendation - Take profits and wait and see, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [17]. 3.6 Lithium Carbonate 3.6.1 Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed lower, with an intraday decline of more than 3% [19]. 3.6.2 Industrial Logic - The renewal of a mining license in Jiangxi has alleviated market concerns about supply. The production and inventory of lithium carbonate are both decreasing slightly, and the demand side is improving with the approaching peak season [20]. 3.6.3 Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the support near the annual line in the range of 74,500 - 76,700 yuan/ton [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Short - term stop - falling and consolidation for soybean meal, rapeseed meal [2][3][4][5][6] - Short - term adjustment for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [2][7][8] - Cautious bullish for cotton, jujube, and live pigs [2][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Weekend ProFarmer's final U.S. soybean yield survey estimated a yield of 53 bushels, lower than the U.S. Department of Agriculture's August forecast, which is bullish. U.S. soybean regions have lower - than - normal rainfall. Recently, soybean meal has stopped falling and shows signs of a technical rebound, but the approaching U.S. soybean harvest may limit the rebound space. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with improved China - Australia trade, have cooled market speculation [2][3][4]. - As of August 29, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 9.056 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 158,000 tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.9685 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 143,200 tons, or 2.10%. Soybean meal inventory was 1.0788 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,500 tons, or 2.42% [4]. Rapeseed Meal - New - crop Canadian rapeseed harvesting has begun, which restrains market bullish speculation. Rapeseed meal rebounded slightly the day before. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of China - Australia relations and whether Canada intends to improve the situation regarding China's anti - dumping results [2][5][6]. - As of August 29, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 129,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24,000 tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 25,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 tons; unexecuted contracts were 60,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies are bullish for palm oil market consumption expectations, and China and India have purchasing needs. Fundamentally, the outlook is positive, and a strategy of going long on dips is recommended. However, Indonesia's potential zero - tariff export of palm oil to the U.S. has led to recent price adjustments. But Malaysia's good palm oil export data in August means caution is needed when short - selling [2][7][8]. - As of August 29, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, or 4.81%; a year - on - year increase of 16,500 tons, or 2.77% [8]. Cotton - In the short term, the improvement of U.S. cotton soil moisture is bearish for the market, and the demand side still faces a shortage. However, the international cotton price valuation is low, and there are opportunities to go long on pullbacks. In China, based on the current depletion rate of cotton commercial inventory and import expectations, the tight supply situation before the new cotton harvest still exists. The good pre - sale of new cotton this year means there is a possibility of local small - scale抢购 in areas with high production capacity, which still supports the market in the short term. With the start of the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking season, the operating rate and orders are gradually improving, but the growth momentum has weakened. A strategy of going long on dips is recommended [2][9][10][11][12]. Jujube - It is initially estimated that the expected total output of Xinjiang Southern Xinjiang gray jujube in the 2025/26 season will be in the range of 500,000 - 580,000 tons. The reduction in production is a foregone conclusion, but the reduction amplitude is likely to be less than the 350,000 tons in the 2023/24 season. There is pressure when combined with carry - over inventory. In the short term, increased rainfall in some areas of Aksu and Alar in the main production areas may lead to quality speculation, and there is an expectation of marginal improvement in demand. A strategy of going long on dips is still recommended [2][13][14]. Live Pigs - In the short term, the smooth slaughter rhythm of the breeding end, the selling pressure of second - fattened pigs, and the accelerated slaughter rhythm in August still put pressure on the spot market, and the futures market needs short - term adjustment. In the medium and long term, the inventory scale remains high, but the production capacity is gradually being reduced, and the profit side also supports this reduction. As demand recovers, the market will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming in the future. The current valuation is relatively low, so short - selling is not recommended in the short term, and attention should be paid to opportunities to go long on dips [2][15][16][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation, but look for long opportunities on dips as the peak season approaches [1] - PP: Bearish continuation, but look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks at low absolute prices [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation, short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish, but look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [3] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [3] Core Views - Crude oil: The consumption peak season is ending, supply surplus pressure is rising, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical risks are uncertain, causing price fluctuations. Focus on the break - even point of new U.S. shale oil wells around $60 [1][7]. - LPG: The cost side weakens, and LPG is under short - term pressure. It mainly follows the oil price, and the valuation is neutral [1][13]. - L: As the peak season in September approaches, supply and demand will turn strong. Plan to restart some devices, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. Look for long opportunities on dips [1][19]. - PP: The supply is under pressure due to device restart and new capacity release. The peak - season demand starts, and the inventory declines. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the low absolute price provides support. Look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks [1][24]. - PVC: The social inventory is accumulating rapidly, the market is volatile, and the supply is expected to increase. The export may slow down, and there is inventory pressure in the industrial chain. Short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting [1][28]. - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but the macro - environment is expected to be loose. Short - term PX is expected to be strong. Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips [1][31]. - PTA: The supply is under pressure due to device maintenance and new capacity release, but the demand shows signs of recovery. The supply - demand is in tight balance in August - September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. Look for long opportunities on dips [2][35]. - MEG: The domestic devices increase the load slightly, and overseas devices change little. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. Cautiously bullish, hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips [2][38]. - Methanol: The supply pressure increases as the devices restart, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is accumulating. The cost support weakens. Hold short positions at high levels and look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract [2][41]. - Urea: The supply is expected to be loose as new devices are put into production. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The inventory is high. Cautiously bearish, hold long positions in the 01 contract cautiously and look for shorting opportunities on rallies [2][46]. - Asphalt: The oil price has room to decline, the raw material supply is sufficient, and the spot price in Shandong is falling. The supply increases, and the demand decreases. Look for short opportunities with light positions [3]. - Glass: The supply - demand is loose, the enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, but the inventory of traders in Shahe is increasing. The supply is under pressure, and the demand support is insufficient. Wait and see [3]. - Soda ash: The spot trading in Shahe is average, the price is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is mostly for rigid needs. Short on rallies [3]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On August 29, WTI decreased by 0.91%, Brent decreased by 0.74%, and SC increased by 0.37% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, U.S. crude oil production reached a record high. As of August 29, the number of active U.S. oil rigs increased. As of August 20, India's crude oil imports decreased. As of August 22, U.S. commercial crude inventory decreased, and strategic reserves increased [8]. - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on the $60 break - even point of new shale oil wells. For SC, focus on the range of [480 - 490] [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PG main contract closed at 4366 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4540, 4481, and 4610 yuan/ton respectively [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The price follows the oil price. As of August 29, the number of warehouse receipts decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries decreased. The refinery inventory increased, and the port inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: Lightly short. For PG, focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7287 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/day. The spot price of Ningxia Coal in North China was 7190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/day, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 398 [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures and spot prices both fell, and the basis strengthened. As September approaches, the supply and demand will turn strong. Some devices plan to restart, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. Pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm [19]. - **Strategy**: Look for long opportunities on dips. For L, focus on the range of [7200 - 7350] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6974 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/day. The spot price of East China drawstring was 6938 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/day, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1130 [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The warehouse receipts were cancelled at a high level, the futures and spot prices both fell, and the basis strengthened. The supply is under pressure due to device restart and new capacity release. The peak - season demand starts, and the inventory declines. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the low absolute price provides support [24]. - **Strategy**: Look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks at low absolute prices. For PP, focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4907 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/day. The spot price in Changzhou was 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 571 [27]. - **Fundamentals**: The social inventory is accumulating rapidly, the market is volatile, and the supply is expected to increase. The export may slow down, and there is inventory pressure in the industrial chain [28]. - **Strategy**: Short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting. For V, focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton (+125), and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton (+8). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest decreased [31]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and overseas devices change little. The demand of PTA is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is high. The macro - environment is expected to be loose [31]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on dips, and sell put options. For PX511, focus on the range of [6840 - 6940] [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA spot price in East China was 4740 yuan/ton (-35), and the TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton (-8). The spot and basis weakened. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [34]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA processing fee is low, and many devices are under maintenance. The demand is improving, and the inventory is slightly reduced but still high. The supply - demand is in tight balance in August - September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions cautiously and look for buying opportunities on dips. For TA01, focus on the range of [4770 - 4830] [36]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the MEG spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton (-6), and the EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton (+1). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [38]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic devices increase the load slightly, and overseas devices change little. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. The cost support exists [38]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips. For EG01, focus on the range of [4440 - 4485] [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton (-12), and the main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton (-12). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [40]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure increases as the devices restart, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is accumulating, and the cost support weakens [41]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at high levels, sell call options for the 01 contract, and look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract. For MA01, focus on the range of [2335 - 2375] [43]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton (+10), and the main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton (-7). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest decreased [45]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to be loose as new devices are put into production. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The inventory is high, and the cost support weakens [46]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract cautiously and look for shorting opportunities on rallies [2].

. | . | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 豆粕 | 周末 | ProFarmer 公布最终美豆单产调研结果，预计单产为 53 蒲式耳，小于美农 8 | | | 短线整理 | 月预计，偏利多。美豆地区降雨低于正常水平。前日豆粕止跌整理，技术上有企稳 | | ★ | | 反弹的趋向。但美豆收获在即，或限制反弹空间。 | | 菜粕 | | 高库存，高仓单现实，中澳贸易改善令近日市场炒作情绪有所降温。上周中加会晤 | | | 短线止跌整理 | 后，尚未有新的进展出现。菜粕前日反弹，关注中澳后续进展以及加方对于中国反 | | ★ | | 倾销结果是否存在意图改善行为。 | | 棕榈油 | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。印尼对美国棕榈油出口关税有望降至零，利空棕榈油 | | ★ | 短线调整 | 价格近日调整。但 8 月马棕榈油出口数据良好，棕榈油继续追空需谨慎。 | | 豆油 | | 现货端，进入 9 月现货价格逐步抬升，虽供应压力依旧存在，但需求好转的预期下 | | ★ | 短 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 钢铁行业稳增长方案出台，整体利多有限。目前高炉利润较前期有所下降，但仍为正值， | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量仍在较高水平偏稳运行。需求端环比回升，但仍低于产量，库存继续增加，供 | | ★★ | 看空 | 需边际趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，政策兑现后存在继续下行风险。 | | | | 热卷产量、表需环比小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | 热卷 | 看空 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。钢铁行业稳增长政策落地，利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期存 | | ★★ | | 在回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量转降，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发货增到货降，基本面中性偏弱。宏观 | | ★ | 空单持有 | 情绪降温，交易回归基本面，矿价震荡偏弱。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第一轮提降，钢焦博弈明显。当前受九三阅兵影响，部分地区焦企有限产 | | 焦炭 | 看空 | 政策，供应端边际有所收缩。铁水产量总体高位偏稳运行。当前市场"反内卷"氛围有 | | ★★ | | 所消退，中期存 ...