| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比均上升，库存环比下降，杭州地区库存环比亦小幅下降，绝对水平 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 仍然较高，基本面平衡偏弱。铁水产量环比略降，钢厂主动减限产意愿较低。短期维持 | | | | 区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷表需及产量环比回升，库存小幅下降，仍为近年来同期最高。铁水产量小降，钢厂 | | ★ | | 减产意愿不强。短期或维持区间反复。 | | | | 数据来看，铁水环比小幅转降。后续钢厂检修陆续增加，铁水有减量预期，关注其落地 | | 铁矿石 ★ | 多单止盈 | 情况。钢厂、港口去库。外矿发货增加，到货缩量，静态基本面环比转弱，但高铁水支 | | | | 撑下，矿价仍然坚挺。 | | | | 四轮提涨落地后焦企利润小幅改善，市场对于后续提降存在分歧。从需求来看，铁水产 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 量环比微降但整体维持高位运行，钢厂按需补库下，短期焦企出货情况尚可，多数维持 | | ★ | | 正常生产。前期盘面快速下行后行情或有反复，观望为主。 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Rebound and short [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with most products showing bearish or cautiously bearish trends due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical disturbances, and cost - related issues. Some products like PTA and natural gas show bullish or cautiously bullish trends because of improved supply - demand and seasonal demand factors respectively [1][3][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: WTI decreased by 0.42%, Brent by 0.20%, and SC by 1.77%. WTI was at $59/barrel, Brent at $63.38/barrel, and SC at 455 yuan/barrel [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: Core driver is supply surplus and inventory accumulation; short - term driver is geopolitical disturbance [8] - **Fundamentals**: Saudi's September exports reached 646 million barrels/day. OPEC predicts 2025 demand increment of 130 million barrels/day and 2026 of 138 million barrels/day. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 342 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [9] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on SC in the range of [445 - 455] [10] LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 20, PG main contract closed at 4382 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to crude oil price, with downstream开工率下降 and inventory accumulation [13] - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on PG in the range of [4350 - 4450] [14] L - **Market Performance**: L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton (+30) [16] - **Basic Logic**: Basis repair, domestic开工率 seasonal increase, import arrival concentration, and weak downstream demand [18] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on L in the range of [6800 - 6950] [18] PP - **Market Performance**: PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton (-51) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Following cost decline, high inventory, and insufficient demand [22] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on PP in the range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5) [25] - **Basic Logic**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low - valuation support [26] - **Strategy**: Industry hedging at high prices. Look for low - long opportunities. Focus on V in the range of [4400 - 4650] [26] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 was at 4754 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Low processing fees, increased device maintenance, and relatively good downstream demand. Cost - side PX is strong [28] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on TA in the range of [4670 - 4750] [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: EG01 was at 4013 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: Increased domestic coal - based device maintenance, new device production, and weakening downstream demand expectations. Inventory accumulation expected in November [31] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on EG in the range of [3790 - 3850] [32] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [33] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppressing prices, high domestic and overseas device开工率, and weak demand [35] - **Strategy**: Short positions held cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on 05 contract at low prices [3] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR01 was at 1652 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: High supply, weakening demand, and high inventory [39] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on UR in the range of [1645 - 1675] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 20, NG main contract closed at $4.753/million British thermal units, up 3.48% [43] - **Basic Logic**: Seasonal demand increase, cost - profit improvement, and supply - demand situation [44] - **Strategy**: Price is likely to rise but upside is limited. Focus on NG in the range of [4.548 - 4.901] [45] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 20, BU main contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.43% [47] - **Basic Logic**: Following crude oil price, supply - demand imbalance, and cost - profit situation [48] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on BU in the range of [3000 - 3100] [49] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16) [52] - **Basic Logic**: Supply decline difficult, weak domestic demand due to falling real - estate prices [53] - **Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the long - term. Focus on FG in the range of [1000 - 1050] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [54] - **Basic Logic**: Decreased demand support and high - production cycle [5] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term [5]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预计略低于正常水平。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | 豆粕 | | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 | | | 短线整理 | 西种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作，美农 11 月报告显示美豆期末库存虽然环比 | | ★ | | 回落，但与 8 月期末库存预估一致。本周国内大豆及豆粕库存环比回落，短线关注 | | | | 调整后逢低短多机会，关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | | | 近日加方表示暂无法取消对中国关税，导致市场对于中加贸易关税改善预期降温。 | | 菜粕 | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨。港口库存依然同比偏高叠加豆粕调整，昨日菜粕延 | | ★ | 短线回落整理 | 续回落调整。短线关注调整后看多机会。做空谨慎对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 15 日出口数据环比较弱，累库 | | 棕榈油 | | 预期依然存在，短期阶段性调整行情。近日进口盘面利润快速回升修复，但印度进 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹产量及表需环比继续下降，库总存环比虽下降，但杭州地区库存仍在上升，处于近 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 年来同期最高水平，基本面总体偏弱。铁水产量环比回升，虽然目前钢厂利润一般，但 | | ★ | | 无主动减限产意愿。目前跌至前低附近，考验 3000 处支撑，或低位震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷表需及产量小幅回落，库存逆季节性小幅上升，显示一定的库存压力。铁水产量转 | | ★ | | 增，钢厂减产意愿不强。中期区间运行，短期或低位震荡反复。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比转增，部分高炉复产。钢厂检修信息增加，后续关注其落地情况。 | | ★ | 多单止盈 | 钢厂、港口累库。外矿发到货缩量，静态基本面中性偏多。短期矿价坚挺。 | | 焦炭 | | 现货第四轮提涨全面落地，但焦企亏损状况未见改善，市场对于第五轮存在分歧。从需 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 求来看，铁水产量环比回升，钢厂暂未开启大面积检修，短期阶段性需求释放后补库意 愿有所下降。盘面快速下行后行情或有反复，谨慎操 ...

中辉有色观点 | 1 | | C | | --- | --- | --- | | 10 | POST OF CONSULT | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美联储议息会议和数据均指向年内或无降息，但是部分情绪已被交易。黄金短期大 | | | 长线持有 | 驱动较少，长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定 | | ★ | | 性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金上下波动，美联储态度和数据结果影响市场对于金银的交易，白银弹 | | | 长线持有 | 性大更大。长期来看白银基本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽 | | ★ | | 松货币投放提供流动性。关注 11500 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美国非农数据再延迟，特朗普再次炮轰鲍威尔，美联储内部分歧严重，12 月降息概 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 率骤降至 31%。短期铜止跌反弹重回 8 万 6 关口，但 LME 铜库存隔夜大增，制约铜 | | ★ | | 上方空间，中长期，铜依旧看多。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Short - term bullish for rebound, long - term bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the investment trends of various energy and chemical products, taking into account factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and inventory levels. It provides corresponding investment strategies for each product based on these analyses [1][3][5] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 2.34%, Brent down 1.88%, and SC up 0.19% [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is that downstream refined oil profits are good, but crude oil supply exceeds demand, and global crude oil inventories are accumulating rapidly, limiting the upside of oil prices and increasing downward pressure. Short - term drivers include geopolitical disturbances [8] - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in September reached a 7 - month high. OPEC's November report predicts global crude oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026. As of the week of November 7, US commercial crude inventories increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices, and the oil price has entered a low - price range. In the short - term, the daily line has declined significantly, and the trend is weak. Partially close previous short positions. Pay attention to the range of [450 - 460] for SC [10] 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 19, the PG main contract closed at 4395 yuan/ton, up 0.32% month - on - month [12] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, and the recent high basis and over - valuation of the futures market have put pressure on prices. The supply of liquefied gas has decreased, and the demand side has shown some resilience. Inventories at ports and factories have been decreasing [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Try short positions with a light position. Pay attention to the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG [14] 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [16][17] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has been repaired to near parity. Domestic production has increased seasonally, and imports have arrived in a concentrated manner, resulting in a loose supply pattern. The downstream demand for the shed film season is weak, and the cost support from oil prices is insufficient [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term trend has stabilized and rebounded. Partially reduce short positions. In the long - term, wait for the rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6800 - 6950] for L [18] 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak due to the decline in coking coal prices and insufficient demand. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is at a high level, and the device is restarting one after another. OPEC+ is still in the production - increasing cycle, and oil prices are expected to continue to decline in the medium - term [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term price has stopped falling and stabilized. Reduce short positions. In the long - term, wait for the rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of [6350 - 6500] for PP [22] 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4586 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [24][25] - **Basic Logic**: The futures market has increased positions and reached a new low. In the short - term, the market has returned to the weak fundamentals. Although the inventory is at a high level, the low valuation provides some support. Pay attention to the progress of anti - dumping duties and the rhythm of capital position shifting [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures market maintains a high premium. Industries can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of [4400 - 4650] for V [26] 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract was at 4754 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is generally low. The supply pressure has been relieved due to new device production and increased maintenance. The downstream demand is relatively good but has a weakening expectation. The cost of PX has decreased both at home and abroad, providing some support. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November - December [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation and processing fee are not high. Pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of [4640 - 4720] for TA [29] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract was at 3922 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based device maintenance has increased, and the start - up load has decreased. Overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. The downstream demand is relatively good but has a weakening expectation. The inventory has slightly increased, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure while coal prices are expected to rise [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is in a low - level shock. Pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3830 - 3895] for EG [32] 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [33] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. Domestic and overseas device start - up loads are high. The 11 - month import volume is expected to be large, and the supply pressure is high. The demand is average, and the cost support is weak and stable [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is in a weak shock. Hold short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [35] 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR05 contract was at 1727 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: The small - particle urea spot price is stable, and the negative basis has slightly strengthened. The supply pressure is expected to increase as the production of maintenance devices resumes. The demand has weakened slightly, and the inventory has decreased but is still at a high level. Exports have maintained a high growth rate since July [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals of urea remain weak. Be vigilant against the risk of the futures price falling after rising. Pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [1635 - 1665] for UR [40] 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 18, the NG main contract closed at 4.593 US dollars/million British thermal units [42] - **Basic Logic**: As the global temperature drops, the demand for natural gas for combustion and heating has increased, providing strong support for prices. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The supply has increased in China, while the demand has slightly decreased. The US natural gas inventory has increased [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the temperature cools, the demand is increasing, but the supply is sufficient. The upward momentum has weakened, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to the range of [4.420 - 4.688] for NG [44] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 19, the BU main contract closed at 3045 yuan/ton, up 0.43% month - on - month [46][47] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly determined by the cost of crude oil, and the weak oil price has reduced the cost support. The asphalt profit has declined. The supply has decreased in November, and the demand has also decreased in October. The inventory has decreased [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [3000 - 3100] for BU [49] 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton [51][52] - **Basic Logic**: The supply has decreased, but further decline is difficult as the coal - based process is still profitable. The real - estate price has continued to fall in October, and the domestic demand is weak. The deep - processing orders are at a low level, and the demand support is insufficient [53] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the real - estate demand is weak, and the loose supply pattern is difficult to change. Go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [1000 - 1050] for FG [53] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton [55][56] - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand have both decreased. Some devices have been maintained or reduced production, and the demand from the float glass industry has decreased. In the long - term, the supply will remain loose due to the high - production cycle [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term price is at a low level. In the long - term, wait for the rebound to go short. Exit the long position of the soda - glass spread. Pay attention to the range of [1170 - 1220] for SA [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: PTA, Natural Gas [28][5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude Oil, LPG, Ethylene Glycol, Methanol, Urea, Asphalt [1][3][5] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L, PP [1] - **Bearish Continuation**: PVC, Glass, Soda Ash [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: European diesel price hikes drive oil price rebounds, but supply surplus and inventory accumulation limit upside potential, with a downward pressure [1][8]. - **LPG**: High basis and over - valued futures lead to price pressure, with upstream crude oil supply exceeding demand [1][14]. - **L**: Domestic supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient, with a short - term rebound and long - term bearish outlook [19]. - **PP**: Cost - side weakness, high inventory, and OPEC+ expansion lead to a bearish outlook, with short - term stabilization and long - term bearishness [23]. - **PVC**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low valuation limits further decline, with opportunities for short - selling hedging and low - buying [27]. - **PTA**: Supply pressure eases, demand is relatively good but may weaken, cost support exists, and there is an opportunity to expand processing fees [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand may weaken, valuation is low but lacks upward drive, with a low - level oscillation and bearish outlook [32]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses prices, supply pressure is large, demand is average, and the fundamentals remain weak [36]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure increases, demand weakens, inventory is high, and there is a risk of price decline [40]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand support rises, but supply is sufficient, and the upward space is limited [44]. - **Asphalt**: Follows the oil price, with cost support decreasing, supply surplus, and a bearish outlook [49]. - **Glass**: Supply decline is limited, demand is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [54]. - **Soda Ash**: Demand support weakens, supply is abundant, and the bearish trend continues [55]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.35%, Brent up 1.07%, and SC up 0.33% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Downstream refined oil profits are good, European diesel prices drive the rebound, but supply surplus and geopolitical uncertainties exist [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Angola's January exports will decrease, OPEC forecasts global demand growth, and US commercial crude inventories increase [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close previous short positions, with SC focusing on [450 - 470] [10]. LPG - **Market Review**: On November 18, the PG main contract closed at 4381 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to the cost - side crude oil, high basis and over - valued futures, with supply and demand changes [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short, with PG focusing on [4350 - 4450] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton, up 0.4% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Basis repair, abundant supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short - term, wait for a rebound to short in the long - term, with L focusing on [6800 - 6950] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side weakness, high inventory, and OPEC+ expansion [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short - term, wait for a rebound to short in the long - term, with PP focusing on [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4586 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low valuation limits decline [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hedge short - selling for industries, look for low - buying opportunities, with V focusing on [4400 - 4650] [27]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 4762 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure eases, demand is relatively good but may weaken, cost support exists [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to expand processing fees, with TA focusing on [4640 - 4710] [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG01 closed at 4013 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand may weaken, and valuation is low but lacks upward drive [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with EG focusing on [3850 - 3920] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review section. - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses prices, supply pressure is large, demand is average, and cost support is weak [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be held cautiously, and pay attention to MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [3]. Urea - **Market Review**: UR01 closed at 1652 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases, demand weakens, and inventory is high [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious of price drops, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with UR focusing on [1640 - 1670] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 17, the NG main contract closed at 4.593 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 3.75% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand support rises, but supply is sufficient [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to [4.200 - 4.511], with limited upward space [45]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 18, the BU main contract closed at 3032 yuan/ton, unchanged [48]. - **Basic Logic**: Follows the oil price, cost support decreases, supply and demand decline, and inventory decreases [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, with BU focusing on [3000 - 3100] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply decline is limited, demand is weak due to the real - estate market [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, with FG focusing on [1000 - 1050] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review section. - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, supply is abundant in the long - term [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the long - term, exit long - alkali and short - glass spreads [5].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹产量及表需环比继续下降，库总存环比虽下降，但杭州地区库存仍在上升，处于近 | 螺纹钢 | 年来同期最高水平，基本面总体偏弱。铁水产量环比回升，虽然目前钢厂利润一般，但 | | | | 谨慎看空 | ★ | 无主动减限产意愿。目前跌至前低附近，考验 | 3000 | 处支撑，或低位震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 热卷表需及产量小幅回落，库存逆季节性小幅上升，显示一定的库存压力。铁水产量转 | 谨慎看空 | ★ | 增，钢厂减产意愿不强。中期区间运行，短期或低位震荡反复。 | | 铁矿石 | 数据来看，铁水环比转增，部分高炉复产。钢厂检修信息增加，后续关注其落地情况。 | 谨慎看多 | ★ | 钢厂、港口累库。外矿发到货缩量，静态基本面中性偏多。短期矿价坚挺。 | | 现货第四轮提涨全面落地，但焦企亏损状况未见改善，市场对于第五轮存在分歧。从需 | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 求来看，铁水产量环比回升，钢厂暂未开启大面积检修，短期阶段性需求释放后补库意 | | | ★ | 愿有所下降。盘面快速下行后 ...

1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预计略低于正常水平。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | 豆粕 | | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 西种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作，美农 11 月报告显示美豆期末库存虽然环比 | | | | 回落，但与 8 月期末库存预估一致。本周国内大豆及豆粕库存环比回落，短线关注 | | | | 调整后逢低短多机会，关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | | | 近日加方表示暂无法取消对中国关税，导致市场对于中加贸易关税改善预期降温。 | | 菜粕 | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨。港口库存依然同比偏高叠加豆粕调整，昨日菜粕延 | | ★ | 短线回落整理 | 续回落调整。短线关注调整后看多机会。做空谨慎对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 15 日出口数据环比较弱，累库 | | | 偏弱整理 | 预期依然存在，短期阶段性调整行情。近日进口盘面利润快速回升修复， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: High - level under pressure [1] - Aluminum: High - level under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The market is in a liquidity vacuum, magnifying bearish sentiment. Short - term, the US employment situation is the biggest concern, and the probability of interest rate cuts has decreased [1][3]. - Gold has few short - term major drivers, and long - term trading is recommended. In the long - run, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its long - term strategic allocation value [1][4]. - Silver has followed the decline in the short - term due to a lack of market data. In the long - run, global policy stimulus will boost demand, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is under short - term pressure and is testing the support at 85,000 yuan. In the medium - to - long - term, the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand are bullish factors [1][7]. - Zinc is under pressure in the short - term due to weak demand in the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing [1][11]. - Lead is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production of some lead smelters in the north has recovered, while the production of large and medium - sized lead battery enterprises has decreased, leading to an increase in social inventory and short - term pressure on prices [1]. - Tin is under high - level pressure in the short - term due to slow resumption of overseas tin mines, tight concentrates in Yunnan, and weak downstream electronic consumption demand [1]. - Aluminum is under high - level pressure in the short - term due to the continuous surplus of upstream alumina, high operating rates of domestic electrolytic aluminum, and a slowdown in inventory reduction in mainstream consumption areas [1]. - Nickel is weak due to the continuous increase in overseas LME nickel inventory, high domestic nickel inventory, and weakening downstream stainless steel consumption [1][18]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance range - bound state in November. Supply has increased by 1.67% month - on - month, and there are rumors of production cuts in downstream industries [1]. - Polysilicon is in high - level oscillation. Spot market performance is flat, and downstream profit losses may limit demand, but there are still expectations of capacity integration [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices have fallen from highs due to profit - taking and exchange window guidance. The total inventory has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, and it is advisable to go long after stabilization [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Short - term trading lacks an anchor, bearish sentiment is magnified, and gold and silver are in range - bound adjustment [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment data shows an increase in initial and continued jobless claims, and there is a large - scale layoff warning. There is a liquidity vacuum due to changes in the Fed's attitude and domestic political situation. In the long - run, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3][4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 920 and silver around 11,500. Long - term value - allocated positions should be held, and short - term trading should be cautious [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and adjusting [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased both month - on - month and more than expected. Consumption is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises'开工 rates are weak. The global copper concentrate supply is tight, and overseas copper inventory is increasing [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, copper is under pressure and testing the support at 85,000 yuan. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still bullish. Short - term, pay attention to the ranges [84,500, 87,500] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [10,500, 11,000] US dollars/ton for London copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating weakly [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production has declined, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to fall. Refined zinc enterprises are in a loss state. Consumption is in the off - season, and overseas LME zinc inventory has increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure and running weakly due to a cold macro and sector sentiment and weak demand in the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of selling on rallies. Pay attention to the ranges [22,000, 22,500] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2,950, 3,050] US dollars/ton for London zinc [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina is in a low - level weak trend [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the Fed's year - end interest rate cut expectation has weakened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production, and domestic inventory has increased slightly. The demand side shows a structural differentiation. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea has ended, and domestic bauxite production has resumed. The market is in a surplus state in the short - term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21,100 - 21,800] yuan/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices continue to be weak, and stainless steel is under pressure at a low level [17]. - **Industrial Logic**: The Fed's year - end interest rate cut expectation has weakened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026, and global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has faded, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [114,000 - 116,000] yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 rose and then fell, with the late - session gain narrowing to less than 1% [21]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals remain in a tight supply - demand situation, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. Domestic production has reached a new high, but the shortage of raw materials limits the production increase. Terminal market demand is strong, and the market focuses on the demand side [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for opportunities to go long during callbacks or sideways consolidation in the range [91,000 - 94,000] yuan/ton [23].