| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹产量及表需环比继续下降，库总存环比虽下降，但杭州地区库存仍在上升，处于近 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 年来同期最高水平，基本面总体偏弱。铁水产量环比回升，虽然目前钢厂利润一般，但 | | ★ | | 无主动减限产意愿。目前跌至前低附近，考验 3000 处支撑，或低位震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷表需及产量小幅回落，库存逆季节性小幅上升，显示一定的库存压力。铁水产量转 | | ★ | | 增，钢厂减产意愿不强。中期区间运行，短期或低位震荡反复。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 数据来看，铁水环比转增，部分高炉复产。钢厂检修信息增加，后续关注其落地情况。 | | ★ | | 钢厂、港口累库。外矿发到货缩量，静态基本面中性偏多。短期矿价坚挺。 | | | | 现货第四轮提涨全面落地，但焦企亏损状况未见改善，市场对于第五轮存在分歧。从需 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 求来看，铁水产量环比回升，钢厂暂未开启大面积检修，短期阶段性需求释放后补库意 | | ★ | | 愿有所下降。盘面快速下行后行情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, it provides specific views such as long - term holding for gold, silver, and copper; rebound - pressured for zinc; high - level pressured for lead, tin, and aluminum; weak for nickel; range - bound for industrial silicon; high - level oscillating for polysilicon; and bullish for lithium carbonate [1]. Core Views - The core view of the report is that the prices of various metals are affected by multiple factors including Fed's monetary policy, industry supply - demand relationship, and macro - economic data. Different metals have different price trends and investment strategies. For example, gold and silver are suitable for long - term value investment, while zinc is recommended for short - selling on rebounds [1]. Summary by Metal Categories Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fell and then oscillated due to a lack of short - term trading anchors and the amplification of negative news from Fed officials. SHFE gold dropped 2.49% and COMEX gold fell 0.96%; SHFE silver declined 3.57% and COMEX silver decreased 0.01 [2][3]. - **Underlying Logic**: Fed hawkish officials' statements reduced the probability of a December rate cut, but some supported rate cuts. There was a lack of US economic data, leading to sentiment - based trading. In the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, a decline in the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [4][5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term value investors should hold their positions, while short - term investors should be cautious. Short - term attention should be paid to the support levels of domestic gold at 920 and silver around 11500 [5]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.10%, LME copper dropped 0.73%, and COMEX copper fell 1.20% [6][7]. - **Underlying Logic**: In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline further in November. Consumption entered the off - season, and the global copper concentrate supply remained tight. However, high copper prices restricted demand, and the global visible copper inventory was at a historically high level [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the Fed's hawkish stance, industry hedging should add option protection, reduce positions, and control risks strictly. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic. Short - term attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai copper at [84500, 87500] yuan/ton and LME copper at [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 0.22%, and LME zinc dropped 0.83% [9][10]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production declined, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to fall. Consumption entered the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window opened. Zinc was in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the Fed's hawkish stance and poor domestic macro - data, zinc is pressured to run weakly. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai zinc at [22000, 22500] and LME zinc at [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices were pressured to decline, and alumina stabilized at a low level. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.53%, and LME aluminum dropped 0.38% [12][13]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and domestic production remained high. The destocking of aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas slowed down, and demand entered the off - season. The alumina market was in an oversupply situation in the short term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21200 - 22000] [15]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices continued to weaken, and stainless steel rebounded at a low level. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract decreased by 0.11%, and LME nickel dropped 0.40% [16][17]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas Fed's year - end rate - cut expectation weakened. Global refined nickel inventory reached a five - year high. The stainless steel market entered the off - season, and downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [115000 - 117000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed at the daily limit, with significant position - increasing and upward movement [21]. - **Underlying Logic**: The supply - demand situation remained tight, with total inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline accelerating. Terminal market demand was strong, and the impact of supply resumption was weakened [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Existing long positions should take profits on rallies, and new positions should wait for opportunities to go long during pullbacks or sideways consolidation in the range of [92000 - 99000] [23].

Report Investment Ratings - Bullish sentiment: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal, Rapeseed oil [1] - Bearish sentiment: Palm oil (Weak consolidation), Cotton (Short - term weak adjustment), Jujube (Beware of rebound), Live pigs (Beware of rebound) [1] - Short - term bullish oscillation: Soybean oil [1] Core Views - Soybean meal: Trade costs and potential Brazilian planting premiums have led to bullish sentiment. With domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories falling this week, look for short - term long opportunities after adjustments and monitor Brazilian soybean planting weather [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal: The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade tariffs has cooled. Coastal oil mills have zero inventory and zero crushing of rapeseed. After a correction, there are bullish opportunities, and short - selling should be treated with caution. Pay attention to the follow - up progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1][6]. - Palm oil: In November, the first 15 - day export data of Malaysian palm oil was weak, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation. With the recent rapid recovery of import profit, be cautious about chasing long positions, and it is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term [1][9]. - Soybean oil: There is a lack of bullish support in the US soybean oil market. Although domestic soybean oil inventory has decreased month - on - month, it is still higher than the five - year average. Considering trade costs and Brazilian weather, it is in a bullish consolidation. Monitor Brazilian weather [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero inventory of rapeseed, and zero imports in November. The port inventory has decreased significantly, showing a bullish oscillation. Short - selling needs caution [1]. - Cotton: USDA's new report is bearish on the supply side. Globally, the cotton market is expected to have a short - term weak adjustment, but the downward space is limited. Domestically, there is short - term pressure, but downstream demand has some resilience. Consider short - term range trading and long - term low - buying opportunities [1][13]. - Jujube: As new products are launched and the consumption season arrives, it will gradually shift to a situation of both supply and demand being strong. Maintain a bearish attitude in general. Do not over - short when the spot stabilizes, and keep a short - term wait - and - see attitude [1][17]. - Live pigs: The short - and medium - term supply pattern is still loose. Although the near - month contract price is close to historical lows, do not over - short the peak - season contracts. Consider rolling operations. Be moderately bullish on the far - month contracts in H2 2026, and also pay attention to the 3 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan or 1.58% from the previous day [2]. - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 992.6 million tons, down 40.8 million tons week - on - week; soybean oil mill inventory was 747.71 million tons, down 14.24 million tons week - on - week; soybean meal inventory was 99.29 million tons, down 0.57 million tons week - on - week [3]. - Market sentiment: Trade costs and potential Brazilian planting premiums have led to bullish sentiment [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Futures price: The main contract closed at 2449 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 1.65% from the previous day [4]. - Inventory: As of November 14, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and rapeseed meal inventory was 0.2 tons, down 0.3 tons week - on - week [6]. - Market sentiment: The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade tariffs has cooled. After a correction, there are bullish opportunities [1][6]. Palm Oil - Futures price: The main contract closed at 8644 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan or 1.23% from the previous day [7]. - Inventory: As of November 14, the national key area commercial inventory was 65.32 million tons, up 5.59 million tons week - on - week [9]. - Export: In November, the first 15 - day export data of Malaysian palm oil was weak [9]. - Market sentiment: There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and it is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term [1][9]. Cotton - Futures price: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13445 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [10]. - Inventory: National commercial cotton inventory was 328.24 million tons, up 43 million tons [10]. - Market sentiment: USDA's report is bearish on the supply side. Domestically, there is short - term pressure, but downstream demand has some resilience [1][13]. Jujube - Futures price: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 9270 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 0.87% from the previous day [14]. - Inventory: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9840 tons, up 299 tons week - on - week [16]. - Market sentiment: As new products are launched and the consumption season arrives, it will gradually shift to a situation of both supply and demand being strong. Maintain a bearish attitude in general [1][17]. Live Pigs - Futures price: The main contract Ih2601 closed at 11695 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day [18]. - Inventory: National sample enterprise生猪存栏量 was 3844.62 million tons, up 5.61 million tons month - on - month [18]. - Market sentiment: The short - and medium - term supply pattern is still loose. Do not over - short the peak - season contracts. Be moderately bullish on the far - month contracts in H2 2026 [1][19].

中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | PTA | 加工费整体偏低，装置复产延期叠加检修力度有所提升（虹港石化检 修、逸盛宁波本月下旬检修、英力士检修中，威联化学降负），供应端压 | | PX/PTA | | 力有所缓解；需求略显改善，终端订单短期企稳，但稳定性有待跟踪。成 | | | 谨慎看多 本端 | PX 国内外均有所降负（上海石化、中化泉州停车，越南 NSRP 降负）， | | ★ | | 走势偏强。TA12 月存累库预期。短期来看，基本面有所改善，但原油承 | | | | 压，反弹高度或将有限。策略：单边关注逢低布局多单机会；套利关注做 | | | 扩 | ta 加工费（即多 pta，空 px）。 | | | | 近期国内煤制装置检修有所增加，开工负荷下行（红四方临停、正达凯检 | | | | 修、广汇降负、河南能源延后重启）、海外装置略有提负（台湾南亚 1#重 | | 乙二醇 | | 启），新装置投产（裕龙石化投产；宁夏畅亿、襄矿泓通计划投产）叠加 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 检修装置恢复 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market Outlook**: The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, red dates, and live pigs, providing different views and investment suggestions for each variety [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The market sentiment is bullish, but due to the lack of obvious bullish drivers, caution is needed when chasing long positions. There is a risk of short - term adjustment following the decline of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the soybean planting situation in Brazil [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The market sentiment is bullish, but the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited due to the consumption off - season and relatively high port inventories. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][4][6]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a weak consolidation state. There is a continued inventory build - up expectation, and short - term staged adjustment is expected. Caution is needed when chasing long positions, and participation is recommended when the price stabilizes at a low level [1][7][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term. Although there is no strong bullish driver, it is treated as a rebound for now. Attention should be paid to the weather in Brazil [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is expected to be bullish in the short term. The zero - start of coastal oil mills, zero - inventory of rapeseed, and significant reduction in port inventories have driven up the domestic rapeseed oil price [1]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to adjust in the short term. The high supply suppresses the market in the short term, but the terminal inventory is being depleted, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to gradually converge in the long - term. Mid - to long - term investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips, and short - term investors can consider range trading or short - term reverse arbitrage [1][9][12]. - **Red Dates**: A bearish attitude is recommended in the long - term under the loose supply - demand pattern. Most of the premium caused by the speculation of a significant reduction in production has been squeezed out, and short - term observation is recommended [1][13][16]. - **Live Pigs**: There is a risk of a rebound. Supply pressure remains in Q4, and attention should be paid to the entry of second - fattening pigs. The terminal demand is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 03 contract and reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][17][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 3092 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3124 yuan/ton, up 17.43 yuan or 0.56% [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 7, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 1033.4 million tons, up 70.50 million tons from last week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 761.95 million tons, up 51.16 million tons or 7.20% from last week, and the soybean meal inventory is 99.86 million tons, down 15.44 million tons or 13.39% from last week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The rainfall in Brazil is expected to be slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days. The sales pressure of spot oil mills has decreased, and there is a psychological tendency to support prices. The issue of US soybean import tariffs has not been effectively resolved, and the market sentiment is bullish, but there is a risk of short - term adjustment following the decline of US soybeans [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2490 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.08% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2588.95 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 7, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.21 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The market's expectation of improving China - Canada trade tariffs has cooled. Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory and zero - crushing. However, due to the consumption off - season and relatively high port inventories, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 8644 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan or 1.23% from the previous day. The national average price is 8655 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.80% [7]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 7, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory is 59.73 million tons, up 0.45 million tons or 0.76% from last week, and up 5.85 million tons or 10.86% from last year [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. There was inventory build - up in October, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of November was weak. There is still an expectation of inventory build - up, and it is in a short - term staged adjustment [1][8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The latest price of the main contract (CF2601) is 13450 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day [9]. - **Inventory Situation**: The national commercial inventory has increased by 52.17 million tons to 284.78 million tons, lower than the same period by 27.88 million tons; the Xinjiang commercial inventory has increased to 183.9 million tons, higher than the same period by 26.96 million tons [11]. - **Market Analysis**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested; in India, the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 1.4 million tons; in Pakistan, the new cotton listing volume has increased by 3% year - on - year. In China, the new cotton picking is basically completed, and the supply is high in the short term, but the terminal inventory is being depleted, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to converge in the long - term [1][10][12]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The latest price of the main contract (CJ2601) is 9190 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day [13]. - **Inventory Situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9840 tons, up 299 tons from last week and up 4140 tons from the same period [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season red date production is expected to be between 500,000 and 600,000 tons, and the supply is loose. The mainstream purchase price in Xinjiang is weak, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly [1][15][16]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The latest price of the main contract (lh2601) is 11775 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The national average spot price of external ternary pigs is 11940 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.33% [17]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Situation**: The national sample enterprise's pig inventory has increased slightly, and the slaughter volume has increased by 11.85% month - on - month. The terminal demand is gradually stabilizing, but the supply pressure remains in Q4 [17][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply pressure is postponed to December, and there is a risk of a rebound. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 03 contract and reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][17][19].

资料来源：iFinD，mysteel，中辉期货 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹产量及表需环比继续下降，库总存环比虽下降，但杭州地区库存仍在上升，处于近 | 螺纹钢 | 年来同期最高水平，基本面总体偏弱。铁水产量环比回升，虽然目前钢厂利润一般，但 | | | | | | | | | 谨慎看多 | ★ | 无主动减限产意愿。目前跌至前低附近，考验 | 3000 | 处支撑，或低位震荡反复。 | | | | | | | 热卷 | 热卷表需及产量小幅回落，库存逆季节性小幅上升，显示一定的库存压力。铁水产量转 | 谨慎看多 | ★ | 增，钢厂减产意愿不强。中期区间运行，短期或低位震荡反复。 | | | | | | | 铁矿石 | 数据来看，铁水环比转增，部分高炉复产。钢厂检修信息增加，后续关注其落地情况。 | 谨慎看多 | ★ | 钢厂、港口累库。外矿发到货缩量，静态基本面中性偏多。短期矿价坚挺。 | | | | | | | 现货第四轮提涨全面落地 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 数据确实背景之下，美联储联储鹰派官员集体横跳表态激进，同时出现流动性危机。 | | | 长线持有 | 黄金价格回落，短期大驱动较少，长线交易为主。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | ★ | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期市场数据空白，市场交易没有锚点，全是情绪博弈，白银继续下跌。长期来看 | | | 长线持有 | 白银基本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动 | | ★ | | 性。关注 11500 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储官员放鹰，国内宏观数据不佳，亚太战争风险剧增，市场情绪谨慎，铜承压 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 回落，建议多空均降低仓位，警惕黑天鹅风险，中长期，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求 | | ★ | | 爆发，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观和板块情绪转冷，消费淡季需求疲软，锌承压偏弱运行，中长期看，锌供增需 | | ★ | 反弹承压 | 减，维持反弹逢高沽空观点。 | | 铅 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [2] - L: Bearish rebound [2] - PP: Bearish rebound [2] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Bearish on rallies [4] - Natural Gas (LNG): Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [7] Core Views - The oil market is facing supply - demand imbalances with OPEC+ expansion and the approaching consumption off - season, leading to downward pressure on oil prices. Other energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory, showing different trends [2][11][17] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On November 14, WTI rose 2.15%, Brent rose 2.19%, and SC rose 0.31%. The latest prices of WTI, Brent, and SC were $59.95/barrel, $64.39/barrel, and $458.9/barrel respectively [9][10] - **Basic Logic**: The off - season leads to supply surplus and accelerated global crude oil inventory accumulation, pressuring oil prices. Geopolitical factors such as the restart of Russia's Novorossiysk port and the uncertainty in South America also impact the market. OPEC and IEA predict an increase in global oil supply in the future, while demand growth is relatively limited. As of the week of November 7, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels [11][12] - **Strategy**: Partially close previous short positions. Focus on the range of SC [450 - 470] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 14, the PG main contract closed at 4376 yuan/ton, up 1.70% [16] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil. Recently, due to geopolitical disturbances, crude oil has rebounded, but its upward space is limited. The supply of LPG has decreased, and the demand side shows certain resilience. The inventory of ports and factories has been decreasing [17] - **Strategy**: Buy put options. Focus on the range of PG [4300 - 4400] [18] L - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the L2601 contract was 6818 yuan/ton (+30) [21] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has been repaired, and the market has stabilized and rebounded. However, the supply at home and abroad remains loose, and the demand side lacks the motivation to replenish inventory. The medium - term decline risk of oil prices weakens the cost support [22] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rallies to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of L [6800 - 6950] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the PP2601 contract was 6429 yuan/ton (-51) [25] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak, following the cost - end. The upper - middle stream inventory is at a high level, and the demand support is insufficient. OPEC+ is still in the production - increasing cycle, and oil prices may continue to fall in the medium - term [26] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rallies to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the V2601 contract was 4586 yuan/ton (+5) [29] - **Basic Logic**: The market is in a premium structure, and the warehouse receipts have reached a new high. The short - term macro - policy window period has passed, and the market has returned to weak fundamentals. Although the low valuation provides support, the downward space is limited [30] - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling. Focus on the range of V [4500 - 4650] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: The prices of TA05, TA11, and TA01 were 4762 yuan/ton, 4644 yuan/ton, and 4700 yuan/ton respectively [31] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is generally low. Some new device startups and increased maintenance efforts have alleviated the supply pressure. The downstream demand is relatively good but has a weakening trend. The cost - end PX has reduced its load both at home and abroad. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November - December [32] - **Strategy**: Focus on the opportunity to expand the processing fee (long PTA, short PX). Focus on the range of TA [4680 - 4760] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: The prices of EG05, EG11, and EG01 were 3922 yuan/ton, 3832 yuan/ton, and 4013 yuan/ton respectively [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based device maintenance has increased, and the start - up load has decreased. Overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. The downstream demand is relatively good but may weaken. The social inventory has slightly increased. The cost - end crude oil is under pressure, while coal prices are expected to rise [35] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rallies. Focus on the range of EG [3880 - 3950] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [37] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. The supply pressure is large, and the demand performance is average. The cost support is weak and stable [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [39] Urea - **Market Performance**: The prices of UR05, UR09, and UR01 were 1727 yuan/ton, 1748 yuan/ton, and 1652 yuan/ton respectively [42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly weakened. The domestic inventory is still at a high level, but the export has maintained a high growth rate since July. There are upper and lower limits for urea prices under the "export quota system" and "supply - guarantee and price - stability" background [43] - **Strategy**: Be vigilant against the risk of the market falling after rising. Look for opportunities to short on rallies. Focus on the range of UR [1635 - 1665] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On November 14, the NG main contract closed at $4.843/million British thermal units, up 2.09% [46] - **Basic Logic**: As the global temperature drops, the demand for natural gas for combustion and heating has increased, supporting gas prices. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The supply in some regions has increased, while the overall demand has slightly decreased. The US natural gas inventory has increased [47] - **Strategy**: Although gas prices are likely to rise, the upward space is limited. Focus on the range of NG [4.393 - 4.583] [48] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 14, the BU main contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [50] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end crude oil. As the geopolitical risk is released, the oil price has回调, reducing the cost support. The supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season [51] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2980 - 3080] [52] Glass - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the FG2601 contract was 1053 yuan/ton (-16) [55] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak, and the market is looking for support downward. The daily melting volume remains stable, and the coal - based process is still profitable, so the supply is unlikely to decline further. The factory inventory is at a high level, and the demand support is insufficient [56] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, cold - repair provides support. In the long - term, the real estate demand is weak, and the market is likely to be short on rallies. Focus on the range of FG [1030 - 1080] [56] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the SA2601 contract was 1239 yuan/ton (+25) [59] - **Basic Logic**: The increase in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic and device maintenance has led to a decline in the high - level warehouse receipts, and the market has stabilized and rebounded in the short - term. The factory inventory has slightly decreased but is still at a high level. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply will remain loose in the long - term [60] - **Strategy**: The industry should sell and hedge at high prices. In the short - term, the technical aspect is bullish, and in the long - term, short on rallies. Focus on the range of SA [1180 - 1230] [60]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, PVC bottomed out and rebounded, with a three - consecutive - week decline in the weekly line, and the main contract hit a new low for the year. The fundamentals are weakly difficult to change, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics. The cost support is expected to strengthen, and there may be phased low - buying opportunities due to short - covering [3][4]. - For PVC, short - term absolute prices are undervalued. One can participate in the rebound with a light position according to capital dynamics, and industrial customers can sell hedging on rallies. For烧碱 (caustic soda), the supply is expected to increase in November - December, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [4][5]. 3. Summaries by Directory PVC行情回顾 (PVC Market Review) - This week, PVC bottomed out and rebounded, with a three - consecutive - week decline in the weekly line. It opened flat at 4613 at the beginning of the week, then rose and fell back, hitting a weekly low of 4560 on Thursday night and rebounding. It closed at 4608, down 3 points or 0.6% from last week, with an amplitude of 75 points [3][9]. - The monthly spread weakened slightly, the basis remained stable, the warehouse receipt hit a new high, the position volume remained at a high level in the same period, the profit of a single variety's loss widened, and the profit of the northwest chlor - alkali integration was compressed [10][12][14][16][18]. 基本面分析 (Fundamental Analysis) Supply - This week, PVC output was 480,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons), and the capacity utilization rate was 78.5%. Next week, the planned volume of device maintenance is small, and the output is expected to pick up [26]. Demand - Currently, the downstream operating rate is around 50%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in apparent consumption was 1.7%, and in September, the apparent consumption was 1.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4%) [29]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year declines in the new construction/construction/completion/sales areas of real estate were - 18.9%/ - 9.4%/ - 15.3%/ - 5.5%. The declines in new construction and completion areas narrowed, while those in construction and sales areas continued to expand [32]. Export - From January to September 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.92 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 980,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51%). In September, the export volume was 350,000 tons (including 160,000 tons to India) [35]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the PVC enterprise inventory was 320,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 25,000 tons), and the upstream enterprise pre - sales volume was 70 (a week - on - week decrease of 4) [38]. - As of Thursday this week, the small - sample social inventory of PVC was 530,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons), and the large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons) [41]. 烧碱行情回顾 (Caustic Soda Market Review) - In terms of supply, the caustic soda production is expected to increase in November - December. Regarding demand, relevant data sources are provided, but specific demand analysis is not detailed in the given content. Also, information on caustic soda inventory and export volume is provided, but no in - depth analysis is given [46].

Report Title and Information - The report is titled "Zhonghui Futures Steel Weekly Report: Short - term Range - bound, Awaiting Market Drivers", issued on November 14, 2025, by Zhonghui Futures Co., Ltd [1] Market Overview - This week, the black - sector showed slight differentiation. The main contract of rebar rose 0.6%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.3%, iron ore rose 1.6%, coke fell 5%, and coking coal fell 6.1%. The previously strong coal and coke weakened [2] - In terms of supply and demand, the production and demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined month - on - month, showing off - season characteristics. The inventory of hot - rolled coil and rebar in East China continued to rise against the season, creating real - world pressure [2] - Macroeconomic data remained poor, with the growth rates of real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak. The previously supportive supply side of coking coal loosened, and the policy emphasis on supply security changed market expectations [2] Strategy Suggestions - The recent steel market has been dull, with low prices reflecting weak fundamentals. Further market development requires new logical support [2] - The macro and anti - involution factors have temporarily ended. The upward drive of raw material replenishment and the downward drive of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of market games in the next stage [2] - The rebar 01 contract found support around 3000. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the upside is expected to be limited due to fundamental constraints [2] Steel Monthly Data (as of September 30, 2025) - Pig iron production was 6605000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; the cumulative production was 64586000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [4] - Crude steel production was 7349000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the cumulative production was 74625000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [4] - Steel production was 12421000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the cumulative production was 110385000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [4] - Steel imports were 50000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; the cumulative imports were 504000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [4] - Steel exports were 978000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the cumulative exports were 9774000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [4] Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data (as of November 14, 2025) | Product | Weekly Production (tons) | Production Change | Cumulative Production YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Cumulative Consumption YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 200000 | - 8540 | - 3% | 216370 | - 2150 | - 6% | 576170 | - 16370 | 29.33% | | Wire Rod | 78570 | - 7900 | - 7% | 87000 | - 1870 | - 8% | 122280 | - 8410 | 21% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 313660 | - 4500 | 1% | 313590 | - 710 | 1% | 410520 | 70 | 27% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 83960 | 120 | 1.84% | 86390 | 1070 | 1.13% | 172070 | - 2430 | 15.71% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 158190 | - 1540 | 4.33% | 157270 | - 2670 | 4.21% | 196310 | 920 | 5.27% | | Total | 834380 | - 22360 | 0% | 861000 | - 6000 | - 1.25% | 1477000 | - 26220 | 22.72% | [5] Steel Production Profit (as of November 13, 2025) | Region | Rebar - Blast Furnace Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Valley Electricity Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Flat Electricity Change | Hot - Rolled Coil - Blast Furnace Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 29 | 17 | - 86 | 3 | | North China | 39 | 5 | - 50 | - 56 | | Central China | 175 | 10 | - 123 | 75 | [20] Steel Demand Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 6.5% [27] - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 13.6% [27] Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement in cement out - bound volume, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30] - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with the absolute level comparable to the same period last year and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30] Steel Exports - In October, steel exports decreased month - on - month and were lower than the same period last year [36] - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference declined again [36] Steel Inventory and Basis Rebar - Rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets. After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence period, the futures market usually oscillates upward. With current rebar production lower than last year, inventory is expected to enter a normal destocking phase, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50] - The 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was weak at a low level this week, with limited fluctuations [60] Hot - Rolled Coil - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable. This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to rise slightly, reaching the highest level for the same period. Cold - rolled coil inventory was also at a relatively high level. According to seasonal patterns, there is a risk of further inventory increase, which will continue to suppress the basis [54] - The 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil changed little, showing a slight discount. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coil tend to be looser, suppressing the inter - month spread and preventing it from strengthening [65]