1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different agricultural products have varying market outlooks and investment strategies. For soymeal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil, the short - term market trends are different, with soymeal and rapeseed meal in short - term adjustment phases, while palm oil has a short - term bullish outlook. Cotton, dates, and live pigs also have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding investment suggestions[2]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3089.71 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day[4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 889.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.80 million tons. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 682.53 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.13 million tons. The soymeal inventory was 105.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.86 million tons[5]. - **Market Outlook**: There is a short - term adjustment due to the increase in the weekly crop good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans and the week - on - week increase in soymeal inventory. However, there are short - term long opportunities after stabilization, but the overall upside space is limited[2][5]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2547 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2666.84 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day[6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 22, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 15.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8 million tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions decreased by 2.14 million tons from the previous week[6]. - **Market Outlook**: New - crop Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage. The high inventory and improved China - Australia trade have cooled market speculation. The August production forecast of Canadian rapeseed has been significantly increased, which is bearish. It is in a short - term adjustment phase, and cautious bullish sentiment is advised. Wait for short - term stabilization before short - term participation[2][7]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9582 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The national average price was 9635 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day[8]. - **Inventory and Export Information**: As of August 22, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52 million tons. The export data from August 1 - 20 in Malaysia was good[9]. - **Market Outlook**: It is in a high - level consolidation phase as it approaches the end - of - August Malaysian palm oil inventory forecast. Be cautious about chasing long this week. However, in the context of the biodiesel consumption policy, the trend operation should be based on the idea of buying on dips[2][9]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The domestic spot price rose 0.62% to 15331 yuan/ton, and the ICE cotton main contract fell 0.97% to 66.67 cents/pound[12]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Internationally, the drought - free rate in the US cotton - growing area has slowed down, and the excellent - to - good rate has decreased slightly. In Brazil, the total cotton production is expected to be slightly reduced. Domestically, new cotton is entering the boll - opening stage, and the import volume in July increased slightly. The commercial inventory has decreased, and the demand has improved marginally[12][13]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the short - term soil moisture of US cotton has improved, which is bearish, the international cotton price is undervalued. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage before new cotton is launched, and there is a possibility of local small - scale抢购. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and consider the long - short rhythm change in September[2][14]. Dates - **Price Information**: The main contract of dates, CJ2601, closed at 11410 yuan/ton, up 0.13%[16]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The main production areas are in the fruit - swelling stage. The estimated new - season production is expected to decrease, but the reduction is less than that in 2023. The inventory is being depleted at a moderate pace, and the market trading atmosphere is average[16]. - **Market Outlook**: The 2025/26 annual production in the southern Xinjiang date market is expected to be between 50 - 58 million tons, with a definite reduction. There may be quality speculation due to increased rainfall in some areas, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips[2][16]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2511, fell 0.47% to 13860 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price rose 0.07% to 13830 yuan/ton[18]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in August has increased. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to July has increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long term, the number of fertile sows has decreased slightly. The demand is expected to improve marginally in the future 1 - 2 months[18]. - **Market Outlook**: The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is smooth, and the short - term pressure on the spot end remains. The medium - and long - term inventory scale is high, but the incremental space is shrinking. It is not recommended to short blindly in the short term. Consider establishing long positions in far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse - spread operations around strong contracts[2][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, asphalt [1][4] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG (take profit on long positions), L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea [1][2] - **Bullish**: Glass, soda ash [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks lead to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the pressure of oversupply is increasing, and the oil price trend remains downward. Suggest buying put options and shorting with a light position [1]. - **LPG**: Valuation is restored, downstream开工 rate drops. Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, futures and spot prices rise together, and the basis weakens. The peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. Suggest buying on dips [1]. - **PP**: The oil price stabilizes and rebounds, and the chemical sector continues the optimistic sentiment. The supply is still under pressure in the future, but the absolute price is low with support at the bottom. Suggest short - term buying on dips [1]. - **PVC**: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, and the cost support improves. Although the inventory is accumulating, the further decline space of the disk is limited. Suggest short - term long positions [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose, but the macro - policy bullish expectation is fulfilled. Short - term PX fluctuates strongly. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. There are opportunities to go long at low levels. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [2]. - **MEG**: Domestic and overseas supply changes are small, demand is expected to improve, inventory is low, and cost support exists. Suggest holding long positions and buying on dips [2]. - **Methanol**: The supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. Do not chase the rise, and focus on buying 01 contracts on dips and selling put options on 01 contracts [2]. - **Urea**: The fundamentals are weak, but there is cost support and export expectations. 01 long positions can be held cautiously, and call options can be sold [2]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price has room to compress, and the asphalt is under pressure above. Suggest shorting with a light position [4]. - **Glass**: The supply is under pressure, demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices stabilized and rebounded. WTI rose 1.79%, Brent rose 1.49%, and SC rose 0.51% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors boost oil prices in the short term, but in the medium - and long - term, the support from the peak season weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increase rises. The oil price may be pressed to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Libya plans to increase production, India's oil imports decline, and US commercial crude inventories decrease [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of shale oil new drilling around $60. Buy put options and short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of SC [480 - 500] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 25, the PG main contract closed at 4420 yuan/ton, up 0.64% month - on - month [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price rebounds, the valuation is restored, and the main contract basis is at a normal level. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the trend mainly follows the oil price [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4400 - 4500] [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7423 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan day - on - day [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. The demand side is strengthening, and there is an expectation of fundamental improvement [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of L [7300 - 7500] [16] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7074 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan day - on - day [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil price rebounds, the chemical sector is optimistic, but the supply is under pressure. The demand in the peak season starts, and the inventory at high levels drops. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the bottom is supported [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term buying on dips. Pay attention to the range of PP [7000 - 7200] [21] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan day - on - day [25]. - **Basic Logic**: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, the cost support improves. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulates. The further decline space of the disk is limited [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions. Pay attention to the range of V [4950 - 5100] [26] PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 (+125) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 (+8) yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, the demand - side PTA device maintenance increases, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose. The PXN is not low, and short - term PX fluctuates strongly [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6950 - 7050] [31] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA spot price in East China was 4865 (+35) yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4868 (+8) yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side device maintenance increases, the demand shows signs of recovery, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand is expected to improve [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, sell put options, and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4840 - 4920] [35] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 22, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 (-6) yuan/ton, and the EG01 contract closed at 4474 (+1) yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase production, overseas devices change little, and the arrival and import are at low levels. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is low. The cost support exists [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of EG01 [4500 - 4550] [39] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the methanol spot price in East China was 2320 (-12) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2405 (-20) yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. The cost is supported by coal [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, focus on buying 01 contracts on dips, and sell put options on 01 contracts. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2390 - 2440] [42] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1739 (-25) yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The cost support exists, and the price fluctuates in a range [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of UR01 [1735 - 1765] [46] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, the supply increases, and the demand decreases. The valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [4] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure, the demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see [4] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The supply remains high, the demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers individual ratings for various futures varieties, including "Short - term adjustment", "Short - term bullish", and "Cautiously bullish" [2] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, such as soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks, market influencing factors, and trading strategies for each variety [2] Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price and Inventory**: As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on - year, while the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 24.35 million tons (3.46%). The national port soybean inventory decreased by 1.20 million tons week - on - week, and the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory decreased by 30.16 million tons (4.24%). The national port soybean inventory increased by 22.22 million tons year - on -

Report Summary Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, Coking Coal, Manganese Silicon [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon [1] Core Views - **Rebar**: With good blast furnace profits and improved electric furnace profits, steel mills are highly motivated to produce, leading to high molten iron output. However, demand remains weak, and the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen. Despite recent downward trends, policy disturbances and the Fed's loose signals may trigger a short-term rebound [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have slightly increased, with a relatively stable fundamental situation. The supply-demand balance is expected to loosen, but after continuous decline, the short-term downside space may be limited, and a short-term rebound is possible [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron output has increased, environmental protection restrictions are less than expected, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. The fundamental situation is moderately bearish, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][6]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and coke enterprise profits have improved. The supply-demand balance is relatively stable, and short-term rebound is expected due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is flat compared to the previous period, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly. Although the futures price has a premium over the warehouse receipt cost and there is downward correction space in the medium term, short-term rebound is possible due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply-demand balance is loosening, production is increasing, and the steel mill restocking is completed. Manganese ore shipments have decreased, but inventory is stable. The cost side provides some support, and short-term rebound may occur under macro - sentiment influence, while the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production is increasing, demand is declining, and inventory pressure is high. It may follow the market for a weak short - term rebound, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][17][18]. Detailed Summaries Rebar - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3224, 3261, and 3138 respectively, with price increases of 29, 31, and 19 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: High production enthusiasm of steel mills, weak demand, and expected loosening of supply - demand balance [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible due to policy and Fed signals [1][5]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3377, 3388, and 3389 respectively, with price increases of 25, 30, and 28 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, with a loosening supply - demand trend [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible after continuous decline [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Not provided in the text. - **Supply - Demand**: Increased molten iron output, less - than - expected environmental protection restrictions, completed restocking of steel mills, and accumulating port inventories [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][6]. Coke - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1736.0, 1825.5, and 1652.0 respectively, with price increases of 57.5, 56.0, and 25.0 [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Relatively stable supply - demand balance, with stable production and inventory [1][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][9][10]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1215.5, 1261.5, and 1061.5 respectively, with price increases of 53.5, 52.0, and 13.5 [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, and stable raw material demand [1][13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][13][14]. Manganese Silicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5898, 5946, and 5798 respectively, with price increases of 66, 65, and 56 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Loosening supply - demand balance, increased production, and completed steel mill restocking [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible under macro - sentiment influence, medium - term sell - on - rallies strategy [1][17][18]. Ferrosilicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5662, 5790, and 5494 respectively, with price increases of 46, 44, and 48 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Increasing production, declining demand, and high inventory pressure [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, short - term weak rebound, advisable to wait and see [1][17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is recommended for short - term observation and long - term strategic allocation. Silver is recommended for rebound buying. Copper is recommended to hold long positions. Zinc is recommended for rebound short - selling. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are expected to have short - term rebounds. Industrial silicon is expected to move in a range, and polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. - In the short term, gold has limited upward space due to the lack of concentrated risk events, while in the long run, it will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring, with a potential long - term bull market. Silver has an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term [3]. - Copper is expected to be strong during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, with a tight supply - demand balance in the long run. Zinc is under pressure due to weak demand and increased supply. Aluminum prices rebound due to downstream destocking. Nickel prices stabilize and rise due to a warm macro - environment. Lithium carbonate has a de - stocking expectation and is recommended for low - buying [6][10][14][18][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: With increased rate - cut expectations and slowed trading sentiment, the gold and silver markets are consolidating [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Overseas markets focus on the Fed's rate - cut expectations. There are concerns about the German economy, increasing European rate - cut expectations. Geopolitical tensions are easing. In the short term, gold has a low probability of breaking through the range, while in the long term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has support around 770 and pay attention to the recent high of 794. Silver has support at 9100 and pay attention to the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will oscillate upwards [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillates strongly, and London copper resumes trading after a one - day holiday [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decrease marginally due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up during the peak season, with a tight supply - demand balance in the long run [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions in copper and look for opportunities to go long on dips. In the long - term, be bullish on copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range of [78500, 81000] yuan/ton, and London copper focuses on [9750, 9950] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc gaps down and moves lower overnight, and London zinc resumes trading after a one - day holiday [10]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and demand is weak due to factors such as tariffs and the off - season [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is weak and oscillating in the short - term, and maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds in the long - term. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range of [22000, 22600], and London zinc focuses on [2750, 2850] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious rate - cut expectations overseas, with a decrease in production costs and a mixed inventory situation. The demand side shows a mild recovery. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Recommend short - term profit - taking and observation for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the downstream开工 rate. The main operating range is [20000 - 21000] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilize, and stainless steel rebounds from a low level [17]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas macro - sentiment is warm. Nickel ore prices are weak, and refined nickel production increases with inventory accumulation. Stainless steel's destocking effect is weakening, and it still faces pressure in the off - season [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Recommend profit - taking and observation for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens high and closes low with a slight increase in positions, closing down 0.3% [21]. - **Industry Logic**: Supply increases slightly, and demand is picking up as the peak season approaches. Total inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks, and there is still a de - stocking expectation [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average in the range of [79000 - 81000] [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a "Cautious Bullish" rating on the cotton industry [4] Core Viewpoints - Considering the current de - stocking speed of cotton commercial inventory and the import situation, the tight supply of cotton before the new cotton goes on the market still exists. There is still some short - term support for the market due to the high - production capacity and the possibility of a small - scale pick - up in some areas. However, the expected increase in this year's new cotton production and the possibility of early listing limit the upside space and time. In terms of demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market has started, with the operating rate and orders gradually improving, but the demand performance needs further observation. It is recommended to take a long - position approach on dips and consider adjusting the long - short rhythm according to the year - on - year demand situation in September [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Review - **Macro**: China's central bank aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices. A 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instrument will be launched. Internationally, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has slightly eased, and the cotton excellent - rate has slightly rebounded. Brazil's new cotton harvest progress is the slowest in the past five years [4] - **Supply**: In the international market, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has eased, and Brazil's new cotton harvest progress is slow. Domestically, most of Xinjiang's new cotton has entered the boll - splitting stage, and some may be listed early in early October. The import quota policy has not been introduced, and the import volume in July did not effectively ease the tight inventory [4] - **Inventory**: Domestically, the commercial de - stocking of cotton is still fast and lower than the same period. The downstream terminal products are also slightly de - stocking, with pure - cotton products de - stocking faster than blended products [4] - **Demand**: Domestically, the "Golden September and Silver October" has started, with orders accelerating and the operating rate rising but still lower than the same period. The trading volume in the light - textile market has recovered, but the pure - cotton fabric trading has not recovered well. Externally, the textile and clothing export data in July was under pressure [4] 2. August USDA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The US cotton production and ending inventory in the August USDA supply - demand balance sheet were significantly revised down, which was more bullish than expected. For example, the US cotton production was revised down from 315 (July) to 262.7 (August) [5] 3. Cotton Futures and Spot - The weekly average cotton price and the basis both declined significantly [6] 4. Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - The weekly cotton - yarn price declined along with the cotton price [13] 5. Supply - **Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: This week, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased by 153,500 tons to 1.7126 million tons, lower than the same period. The inventory of pure - cotton yarn, terminal grey fabric, and polyester - cotton yarn in the factory all decreased [16] - **Imported Cotton**: In July, the imported cotton resources increased month - on - month but were still weak year - on - year, with a total of about 150,766 tons [18] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 22, the number of Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts decreased by 564 to 7,198, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was equivalent to 290,400 tons of cotton [20] 6. Demand - **Operating Rate and Orders**: This week, the spinning mill's operating rate increased by 0.3% to 65.8%, and the weaving mill's operating rate increased by 0.2% to 37%. The spinning mill's orders increased by 3.06 days to 11.42 days. The spinning profit improved [22] - **Light - Textile Market**: The total trading volume in the light - textile market increased, but the cotton - fabric trading volume decreased. The prices of fabric and accessories in the Keqiao market declined [25] - **Retail Sales**: In July, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles above the designated size increased by 1.8% year - on - year, with a slightly slower growth rate than in June [28] - **Exports**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports increased by 0.6%. In July, the exports decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 2% month - on - month. Exports to the US, ASEAN, and the EU all weakened to varying degrees [30][33] - **PMI**: In July, the cotton - spinning industry PMI decreased by 12% to 35.71%, and sub - indicators such as new orders and operating rate also declined [35] 7. CFTC Positioning Data - The net short positions of non - commercial and fund investors decreased slightly [36] 8. Macro - China's central bank aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and a large - scale policy - based financial instrument will be launched [4]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Polyolefins: Peak Seasons Are Gradually Starting, Try to Go Long on Dips [1] Report Date - August 24, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The fundamentals of polyolefins have improved recently, with demand for agricultural films entering the peak season and inventory pressure not significant. It is recommended to go long on dips [4][6][8][9] Key Points by Section 1. L2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the L2601 contract fluctuated widely between 7243 and 7413, with a 2 - week consecutive positive weekly line. It closed at 7380, up 29 points or 0.4% from last week [3] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 390,000 lots (weekly increase of 75,000), and the North China basis was - 140 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 69) [15][18] - **Supply**: This week's PE production was 620,000 tons (weekly decrease of 43,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to increase by 23,000 tons [27] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import was 8.03 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%) [30] - **Demand**: The downstream capacity utilization rate was 40%, with a continuous 4 - week improvement. The agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (weekly increase of 0.7pct), with a continuous 5 - week improvement [33][36] - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons (weekly increase of 60,000), and the social inventory was 560,000 tons (weekly decrease of 12,000), with continuous 6 - week destocking [41] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7350 - 7550]; Arbitrage: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage; Hedging: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [6] 2. PP2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the PP2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6970 and 7081, with a 4 - week consecutive negative weekly line. It closed at 7038, down 46 points or 0.6% from last week [7] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 470,000 lots (weekly increase of 100,000), and the East China basis was - 33 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 32) [53][56] - **Supply**: This week's PP production was 780,000 tons (weekly increase of 3,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to rise to 795,000 tons [61] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import was 1.92 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8%), and the export was 1.83 million tons (year - on - year increase of 29%) [63] - **Demand**: The PP downstream operating rate was 50%, with a continuous 4 - week marginal improvement. From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 19.49 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.6%) [69] - **Inventory**: This week's total commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (weekly decrease of 25,000), with continuous 2 - week destocking [72] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7000 - 7200]; Arbitrage: Wait and see mainly [9] 3. Propylene Market Review - **Market Performance**: This week, the PL2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6360 and 6529 and closed at 6470 [79] - **Price**: As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6300 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 95) [83] - **Supply**: This week's propylene production was 1.18 million tons (weekly increase of 14,000), and the in - plant inventory increased continuously [86] - **Demand**: The downstream comprehensive operating rate improved marginally [89]

碳酸锂周报： 总库存去化，碳酸锂低多对待 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.8.22 锂电行业价格一览 | 产品 | 价格指标 | 单位 | 今日价格 | 上周价格 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | （截止8月22日） | （8月15日） | | | 锂辉石 | 6%CIF | 美元/吨 | 960 | 988 | -2.83% | | | 非洲SC 5% | 美元/吨 | 680 | 640 | 6.25% | | 锂云母 | ≥2.5% | 元/吨 | 2,330 | 2,300 | 1.30% | | 金属锂 | ≥99% | 元/吨 | 560,000 | 550,000 | 1.82% | | 碳酸锂 | 电池级 | 元/吨 | 80,000 | 84,000 | -4.76% | | | 工业级 | 元/吨 | 79,000 | 83,000 | -4.82% | | 氢氧化锂 | 电池级 | 元/吨 | 78,875 | 77,875 | 1.28% | | | 工业级 | 元/吨 | 7 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The PVC market is in a situation of strong expectations versus weak reality, showing signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, but the market sentiment has improved compared to the first half of the year. The low point of 4746 in the year still has strong support, and the profit - loss ratio of short - selling decreases significantly when the price falls below 5000 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC Market Review - This week, the V2601 contract oscillated between 4951 and 5119 yuan/ton, with a 4 - week consecutive decline in the weekly line and an enlarged amplitude compared to last week. The contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, down 78 points or 1.5% from last week's close [3][8]. - As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 5059 yuan/ton (down 78 week - on - week), and the main contract's open interest was 980,000 lots, which was higher than the same period in previous years [11]. - The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. As of Friday, the PVC Changzhou basis was - 279 yuan/ton, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts was 82,000 lots (up 0.2 week - on - week). The delivery volume in June was 35,000 tons, at a neutral level year - on - year [13]. - The 9 - 1 month spread weakened. As of Friday, the V9 - 1 spread was - 141 yuan/ton (up 2 week - on - week), and the V3 - 5 spread was - 222 yuan/ton (up 27 week - on - week) [16]. - This week, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC declined more, and the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC widened [19]. Supply - This week, PVC production was 460,000 tons (down 16,000 week - on - week), with a capacity utilization rate of 78%. From week 1 to 34, the cumulative production increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and the supply was still under pressure. Next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to reach 78.33%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [22]. Demand - **Real Estate**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction in progress, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 19.4%, - 9.2%, - 16.5%, and - 4% respectively. The decline in new construction area narrowed, while the declines in construction, completion, and sales areas widened. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of these four indicators were - 15.2%, - 16.4%, - 29.5%, and - 8.4% respectively. The sales area has seen a continuous 4 - month decline. In July, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.85% year - on - year. This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 1.93 million square meters [25][28]. - **Domestic Demand**: This week, the downstream operating rate was 43%. The operating rates of pipes and profiles improved for two consecutive weeks, while the operating rate of films declined for three consecutive weeks [31]. - **Export**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PVC export volume was 2.29 million tons (an increase of 830,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57%. In July, the domestic PVC export volume was 330,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113%. However, on August 14, India announced new anti - dumping duties, which are expected to reduce China's export advantage and the export growth rate to India in the second half of the year. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 2.45 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%), and in July, the export volume was 350,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%) [34][38]. Inventory - As of Thursday, the PVC enterprise inventory was 310,000 tons (down 21,000 week - on - week), with 9 consecutive weeks of destocking, a total of 100,000 tons. The small - sample social inventory was 510,000 tons (up 15,000 week - on - week), with 10 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, a total of 150,000 tons. The large - sample social inventory was 680,000 tons (up 41,000 week - on - week), with 9 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, a total of 280,000 tons [41]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 223 yuan/ton (up 8 week - on - week) [44]. Strategy - **Single - side**: The absolute price is undervalued. Close short positions and try to go long on dips in the short - term. Focus on the V2601 contract in the range of [4950, 5200]. - **Hedging**: The futures market is in a contango structure. Industrial customers can sell on rallies for hedging [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global central bank meetings are approaching, and the Fed has been issuing hawkish signals. Mining supply disruptions and demand resilience support copper prices, but high supply elasticity and inventory accumulation restrict the upside space. In the short term, there is no obvious single - sided driver for copper, and it awaits more macro - level guidance [6]. - Overall, under the Fed's hawkish expectations, the US dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. Global copper inventory accumulation restricts the upward space for copper. However, the expectation of stockpiling for the peak season and tight copper ore supply provide support for the downside of copper. Copper is in a state of oscillatory consolidation, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. Technically, the triangular consolidation of copper is nearing its end, and it is about to break out and move in a certain direction [6][75]. - In the short term, new entrants are advised to wait for the macro - situation to be clarified and then try to go long on dips around 77,500 - 78,000. Enterprises should arrange sell - hedging at high prices to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and an important alternative asset allocation for precious metals, with tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand, copper is bullish [6][75]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macroeconomic - **Global Central Bank and US Economy**: Before Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, some Fed officials showed a negative attitude towards a rate cut next month. The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022. The US dollar index rose 0.8% compared to last Friday, reaching 98.64. As of August 22, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September dropped significantly to 75% from the previous 95%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged was 25%. The possibility of an aggressive 50 - basis - point rate cut in September disappeared [11]. - **China's Economic Situation**: In August, the LPR remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, with the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The Fed's delay in rate cuts restricts China's monetary policy space. The Sino - US interest rate spread is - 2.54%, slightly narrowing compared to last week. In the short - term domestic policy vacuum period, before the September 3 military parade, the A - share market is booming, siphoning market funds, and the anti - involution sentiment in the commodity market has subsided [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: Supply disruptions have occurred. Codelco expects a 33,000 - metric - ton reduction in refined copper production in 2025 due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Zambia's copper production in the second quarter decreased, putting its goal of increasing production to 1 million tons this year at risk. China's copper concentrate imports in July were 2.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.25%. As of August 22, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) dropped to - 41.15 dollars per ton, and the copper concentrate TC decreased to - 41.3 dollars per ton [36]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: The scrap copper market is in short supply, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper has narrowed. As of August 22, the price difference was 1,084 yuan per ton. From January to June, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 611,300 tons. In July, the import of copper scrap and waste was 190,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% [40]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in August will be 1.1683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51%. The ICSG reported that from January to June 2025, the global copper market had a total supply surplus of 251,000 tons [45]. 3.2.2 Demand - **Traditional Downstream Demand**: From July to August, affected by high temperatures and floods, it was the traditional off - season for terminal consumption. The operating rates of downstream copper processing enterprises declined. In July, the operating rate of copper product enterprises was 61.58%, and the output of copper products was 2.1694 million tons [51]. - **Terminal Demand in Power and New Energy Vehicles**: From January to June, power grid project investment increased by 14.6% year - on - year, and new photovoltaic installations increased by 107.07% year - on - year. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4% [55]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Market Situation**: The short - term core contradiction in copper supply and demand is the strong expectation of inventory reduction during the off - peak to peak season transition versus the weak reality of inventory accumulation due to the short - term supply glut. In the medium term, it is the tight copper concentrate supply and low processing fees versus the high elasticity of smelting supply. In the long term, it is the concern about the weak global economy due to the escalation of Sino - US confrontation versus the explosion of green copper demand in power and new energy [75]. - **Price Trend and Strategy**: Copper is oscillating and consolidating, and a breakthrough is imminent. Short - term new entrants are advised to wait for the macro - situation to be clear and then go long on dips around 77,500 - 78,000. Enterprises should arrange sell - hedging at high prices. In the long term, copper is bullish [6][75].