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棉系月报:基本面格局好转有限,警惕关税扰动风云再起-20250530
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 12:22
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it presents a "neutral" view on the cotton market, considering various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - economic conditions [3]. 2. Core View The fundamental pattern of the cotton market has limited improvement. The cotton price is expected to have weak upward momentum in the near term. The market is influenced by factors like tariff policies, supply and demand changes, and macro - economic trends. The US cotton is expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents due to a loose supply pattern, while the domestic cotton price may move in tandem with the external market. The actual increase in trade demand may be limited despite some warming expectations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro & Industry - The profit of China's above - scale industrial enterprises in April increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March. However, the cumulative profit of the textile and clothing industry in April decreased by 15.4% year - on - year [3]. - The US federal court's ruling on the Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and the repeated changes in tariff measures make the industry cautious [3]. 3.2 Supply - **International**: As of the week ending May 25, the US cotton planting rate was 52%, the budding rate was 3%. The soil moisture in the US improved, which is negative for US cotton. The estimated cotton output in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase [3]. - **Domestic**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well. The planting area in southern Xinjiang may increase, and the new - season output is expected to reach 7.2 - 7.4 million tons. The cost of planting is expected to remain stable or decline slightly. The imported cotton resources have decreased for four consecutive times [3]. 3.3 Inventory - **Domestic**: The industrial and commercial inventory in China is in the seasonal de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down recently. The replenishment progress of cotton yarn, grey cloth, and blended products has also slowed down [3]. - **International**: In March 2025, the inventory of US wholesalers' clothing and fabrics reached the lowest level in 37 months, and the retailers' inventory has declined. There was no obvious replenishment in Q1, and the latest data will show the US replenishment intention after the tariff war [3]. 3.4 Demand - **Domestic**: The domestic textile industry is in the off - season. The number of orders from spinning mills rebounded limitedly and then declined again. The profit of spinning mills remains at around - 1000 yuan, and the industry's profit in April continued to decline [3]. - **International**: The demand for US cotton has not significantly improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited. The "rush - to - export" effect may not be further amplified [3]. 3.5 Cotton Supply - Related - **Inventory Changes**: The total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China decreased by 162,900 tons to 4.3275 million tons this week. The port inventory decreased by 4700 tons to 485,600 tons. The cotton import in April was about 168,662 tons, reaching a near - historical low [13]. - **Product Inventory**: The inventory days of pure cotton yarn, terminal grey cloth, and factory - made polyester - cotton yarn increased this week. The inventory of textile mills' grey cloth decreased in April. The inventory of the clothing and textile industry of Chinese industrial enterprises in March increased by 2 billion yuan to 180.94 billion yuan [17]. 3.6 Cotton Market Performance - **Cotton Futures and Spot**: The cotton price is in a weak - running state with insufficient positive drivers. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price mostly fluctuates within a range [5][7]. - **Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot**: The cotton yarn price was weak this week, showing slightly better resistance than cotton [8]. 3.7 Market Indicators - **US Cotton Planting**: As of May 25, the US cotton planting rate was 52%, and the budding rate was 3% [11]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 29, the registered cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou were 11,157, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 11,537, equivalent to 461,480 tons of cotton [19]. - **Operating Rate**: This week, the spinning mill's operating rate decreased slightly to 74.5%, and the weaving mill's operating rate remained stable at 42.3%. The upward momentum of the operating rate slowed down [21]. - **Profit and Orders**: The immediate profit of spinning mills remained at around - 1000 yuan/ton. The order days of textile enterprises decreased to 11.38 days [23]. 3.8 Market Demand - Side - **Domestic Sales**: In April, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China were 108.8 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [26]. - **Exports**: In April 2025, the total export of textiles and clothing in China was 24.1863 billion US dollars. Textile exports increased by 3.8% year - on - year in the first four months, while clothing exports decreased by 1.5% year - on - year in the first four months [29]. 3.9 Industry Overview - The cotton - spinning industry has higher volatility, with lower order peaks and higher inventory production links. The demand - side weakness and supply - side surplus have not been fully alleviated [31]. 3.10 Competitor Situation - The cotton - polyester and cotton - viscose price differences have reached near - four - year lows, and the pressure on cotton consumption has weakened temporarily. However, due to factors such as new capacity expansion in the chemical fiber industry, the pressure on cotton from competitors is expected to remain strong [34]. 3.11 CFTC Position Data The non - commercial positions and the net short positions of funds have made a small correction, but the report does not provide detailed data [35]. 3.12 Macroeconomic Impact The profit differentiation of domestic enterprises continues to intensify, and the consumer confidence indices in Europe and the US have declined, which affects the cotton market [37].
中辉有色观点-20250530
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:45
中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税暂停令发出仅 20 个小时即被搁置。特朗普对等关税被裁定越权,让事情变 | | | 震荡冲高 | 得更加复杂不确定,目前关税和地缘不确定性仍然较多。央行或继续购金。长 | | | | 期看黄金是未来秩序筹码,尚在秩序重塑途中,战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 逻辑不变,全球经济需求较去年或有下降,供给量变化不大,尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响,但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大,黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随,价格没有摆脱此前区间,操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 轻仓过节 | 特朗普关税法案暂停令搁置,国内政策窗口期,端午假期临近,市场避险情绪回升, 铜承压回落,建议轻仓或者空仓过节,中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000, | | | 78500】 | | | 锌 | 区间震荡 | 随着端午假期临近,市场避险情绪回升,短期锌波动放缓,建议暂时观望,长 | | | | 期看,锌供增需弱,把握逢高空机 ...
中辉期货原油日报-20250530
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:45
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 市场担忧 OPEC+继续加速增产,油价偏弱。周三 OPEC+部长级会议确立 | | | | 继续增产计划,原油远月压力较大,夏季原油消费旺季即将到来,近月下 | | | | 方存支撑,关注 OPEC+周六会议内容。SC【445-460】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 成本端拖累叠加沙特下调 CP 合同价,液化气短线偏弱。成本端油价受 | | | | OPEC+扩产走弱;仓单回落,近期仓单连续上涨压力下降;丙烷进口成本 | | | | 下降,PDH 开工率有上升预期。PG【4035-4080】 | | | | 基本面格局偏弱,华北基差为 35(环比-93)。停车比例继续降至 13%, 二季度仍有山东新时代、埃克森、裕龙合计 165 万吨新装置投产计划,供 | | L | 震荡 | 给充沛;农膜需求淡季,短期假期临近,下游阶段性逢低补库。策略上, | | | | 盘面持续下跌后震荡运行,中期仍存继续下跌风险,前期空单可继续持有。 | | | | L【6900-7050】 | | | | 华东拉丝基差 ...
中辉期货热卷早报-20250530
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:39
| 品种 | 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 铁水产量环比继续下降,但仍在 240 万吨以上。螺纹钢产量环比小幅回落, 偏弱运行 | | | 表需持平,库存继续去化。建材消费马上进入淡季,在钢厂利润持续较好 | | | 背景下,后期供需存在宽松预期。另外原料供应持续存在供应压力,成本 | | | 持续下降,拖累钢材表现,中期延续偏弱趋势。【2950,2990】 | | 热卷 | 热卷供需目前相对平衡,库存继续去化。出口虽仍不错,但后期存在回落 偏弱运行 | | | 可能。黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现,随着铁水产量见顶,成 | | | 本端面临进一步的宽松压力,中期趋势仍然偏弱。【3080,3120】 | | | 基本面看,需求端铁水产量再降,后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 逢高空配 | | | 供给端发货降到货增,港口钢厂库存双降。近端铁矿供需结构中性,后期 | | 铁矿石 | 来看,终端需求边际转弱,与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐 | | | 承压。【690,720】 | | 焦炭 | 铁水产量继续下降,原料需求继续下降。钢厂对焦炭采购较 ...
中辉农产品观点-20250529
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 02:58
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短线反弹 | 南美大豆产量基本确定,美豆种植开启,进度远高于去年及五年均值,且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作,按照 CPC 月度展望来看,6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面,国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库,随着开机率上升,豆粕供应将逐步缓解,逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低,存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | | | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上,供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利 | | 豆粕 | | 空豆粕,但由于 23%的关税依然存在,美豆暂无性价比,对豆粕价格实际利空影响 | | | | 有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟,减产担忧提振市场看多情 | | | | 绪,但实际减产预计有限。受阿根廷暴雨及美政府对欧盟贸易风波影响,豆粕近日 | | | | 反弹,但美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库,整体基本面偏空,看多暂以技术性反弹 | | | | 对待,也可以关注反弹后的短空机会。3030 元附近及以上继续追多需注意仓位及风 ...
中辉期货:原油
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 02:49
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Expected to be volatile. OPEC+ has determined the 2027 production benchmark, and the market is waiting for the results of the meeting of 8 member countries on Saturday. The summer consumption peak is approaching, providing support for near - term prices, but the long - term supply increase may put pressure on prices. SC is expected to trade in the range of 445 - 465 yuan/barrel [1][4][5]. - **LPG**: Expected to be volatile. The pressure from warehouse receipts has been released, and the downstream start - up is expected to pick up, providing support for prices. However, the cost - end oil price is fluctuating weakly. PG is expected to trade in the range of 4080 - 4100 yuan/ton [1][7][8]. - **L**: Expected to be weak. The supply is abundant with new device production plans in the second quarter, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season. Short - term downstream replenishment is only periodic. It is recommended to hold short positions. L is expected to trade in the range of 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton [1][10]. - **PP**: Expected to be weak. The commercial inventory is decreasing at the end of the month, but the enterprise inventory is at a high level year - on - year. A new production peak is coming from May to July, and the export is weak due to rising freight. It is recommended to hold short positions. PP is expected to trade in the range of 6800 - 6900 yuan/ton [1][13]. - **PVC**: Expected to be weak. The calcium carbide price is stable after a decline, and the rainy season is coming, leading to a weakening demand. The cost is collapsing, and there are expectations of new device production. It is recommended to hold short positions. V is expected to trade in the range of 4650 - 4750 yuan/ton [1][16]. - **PX**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. PX device maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, and the demand - side device maintenance is generally high. The inventory decreased in April but is still at a relatively high level. In May, the fundamentals continue to improve, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities. PX is expected to trade in the range of 6540 - 6690 yuan/ton [1][18]. - **PTA**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The PTA device maintenance volume is high, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester start - up is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving start - up is at a high level. PTA inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities. TA is expected to trade in the range of 4630 - 4720 yuan/ton [1][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The device maintenance is high, and the arrival volume is low, reducing the supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving is in a good stage. The inventory is decreasing overall. EG is expected to trade in the range of 4280 - 4450 yuan/ton [1][22][23]. - **Glass**: Expected to be volatile. The macro - environment is not favorable, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The supply is increasing at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to trade short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. FG is expected to trade in the range of 980 - 1030 yuan/ton [2][26]. - **Soda Ash**: Expected to be weak. The new production capacity is put into operation, the supply is abundant, the demand support is weak, and the cost center is moving down. The price is expected to continue to decline. SA is expected to trade in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to be weakly stable. The supply is increasing overall with regional differences, the demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The spot price is slowly rising. SA is expected to trade in the range of 2450 - 2500 yuan/ton [2][31]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to go long with a light position at low levels. The supply - side pressure is returning as the maintenance devices resume production, but the demand has improved. The port is starting to accumulate inventory, but the futures has already priced in part of the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions and pay attention to light - long opportunities. MA is expected to trade in the range of 2170 - 2210 yuan/ton [2]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The supply pressure is increasing as some maintenance devices resume production, but the agricultural demand is expected to pick up, and the export growth rate was high from January to April. The cost is fluctuating narrowly. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities. UR is expected to trade in the range of 1780 - 1820 yuan/ton [2]. - **Asphalt**: Expected to be volatile. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south", and the price is greatly affected by the cost - end oil price. BU is expected to trade in the range of 3495 - 3535 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: Overnight international oil prices showed a mixed trend, with WTI rising 1.56%, Brent rising 1.18%, and SC falling 0.83%. The supply is expected to increase as OPEC+ continues its production - increase plan, and the demand growth rate is expected to be stable. The inventory data shows an increase in strategic and commercial crude oil reserves in the US [3][4]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, due to factors such as the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+'s expansion cycle, the oil price is expected to trade in the range of 55 - 65 US dollars. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the range of 445 - 465 yuan/barrel for SC [5]. LPG - **Market Situation**: On May 28, the PG main contract closed at 4090 yuan/ton, up 0.27% month - on - month. The warehouse receipt pressure has been released, and the downstream start - up rate is expected to increase. The cost - end oil price is fluctuating weakly [6][7]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG valuation is high, so the long - term trend is expected to be weak. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and sell put options. PG is expected to trade in the range of 4080 - 4100 yuan/ton [8]. L - **Market Situation**: The supply is abundant with new device production plans in the second quarter, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened [10]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton [1][11]. PP - **Market Situation**: The macro - policy sentiment has weakened, and the demand is weak. Although the inventory is decreasing at the end of the month, the enterprise inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and a new production peak is coming from May to July. The export is weak due to rising freight [13]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. The price is expected to trade in the range of 6800 - 6900 yuan/ton [14]. PVC - **Market Situation**: The calcium carbide price is stable after a decline, and the rainy season is coming, leading to a weakening demand. The cost is collapsing, and there are expectations of new device production. The basis has weakened, and the warehouse receipts have increased [16]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions. The price is expected to trade in the range of 4650 - 4750 yuan/ton [1]. PX - **Market Situation**: PX device maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, and the demand - side device maintenance is generally high. The inventory decreased in April but is still at a relatively high level. The PXN spread is high, and it is currently fluctuating with the cost [17][18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 6540 - 6690 yuan/ton [18]. PTA - **Market Situation**: The PTA device maintenance volume is high, and the supply - side pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester start - up is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving start - up is at a high level. The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee has recovered [19][20]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 4630 - 4720 yuan/ton [20]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Situation**: The device maintenance is high, and the arrival volume is low, reducing the supply - side pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving is in a good stage. The inventory is decreasing overall [21][22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. The price is expected to trade in the range of 4280 - 4450 yuan/ton [23]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The macro - environment is not favorable, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The supply is increasing at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high, especially in the upstream and mid - stream. The downstream mainly purchases on a just - in - time basis [25][26]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to trade short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. The price is expected to trade in the range of 980 - 1030 yuan/ton [26]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The new production capacity is put into operation, and although the supply has decreased due to enterprise maintenance, it is still in a state of oversupply. The terminal demand support is weak, and the inventory is at a high level [27][28]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with a light position in the short - term and short on rebounds in the medium - term. SA is expected to trade in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [28]. Caustic Soda - **Market Situation**: The supply is increasing overall with regional differences. The demand from the alumina industry is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The profit of some chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong has declined [30][31]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be weakly stable, and the price is expected to trade in the range of 2450 - 2500 yuan/ton [31]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: The supply - side pressure is returning as the maintenance devices resume production, but the demand has improved. The port is starting to accumulate inventory, and the futures has already priced in part of the inventory accumulation expectation [2]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions and pay attention to light - long opportunities. MA is expected to trade in the range of 2170 - 2210 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - **Market Situation**: The supply pressure is increasing as some maintenance devices resume production, but the agricultural demand is expected to pick up, and the export growth rate was high from January to April. The cost is fluctuating narrowly [2]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to cautiously go long at low levels. UR is expected to trade in the range of 1780 - 1820 yuan/ton [2]. Asphalt - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south", and the price is greatly affected by the cost - end oil price [2]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile. BU is expected to trade in the range of 3495 - 3535 yuan/ton [2].
中辉期货:螺纹钢早报-20250529
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 02:42
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 铁水产量环比虽有下降,但绝对水平仍然偏高。卷板等钢材需求绝对水平 | | | | 虽然不错,但建筑钢材马上进入淡季,在钢厂利润持续较好背景下,后期 | | 螺纹钢 | 低位震荡 | 供需面临转向宽松的格局。另外原料供应持续存在供应压力,成本存在持 | | | | 续下降的可能。短期在 3000 附近或存在一定支撑,但中期延续偏弱趋势。 | | | | 【2930,2970】 | | | 低位震荡 | 热卷供需目前相对平衡,库存去化良好。出口仍在高位,暂时未受到明显 | | | | 影响。但黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现,随着铁水产量见顶, | | 热卷 | | 成本端面临进一步的宽松压力。短期下行后或进入震荡整理,但中期趋势 | | | | 仍然偏弱。【3060,3100】 | | 铁矿石 | 空单持有 | 基本面看,需求端铁水产量再降,后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发货降到货增,港口钢厂库存双降。近端铁矿供需结构中性,山东 | | | | 粗钢调控政策传言再起,短期盘面 ...
中辉有色观点-20250529
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 02:42
中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债券收益率冲高回落,影响黄金的短期节奏,但是关税问题远没有解决,俄乌 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 战火、中东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变, | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码,尚在秩序重塑途中,战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 需求方面,全球经济需求较去年或有下降,供给量变化不大,尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响,但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大,黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随,价格没有摆脱此前区间,操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 承压 | 随着端午假期临近,市场避险情绪回升,铜承压回落,关注下方整数关口支撑,空 | | | | 仓或者轻仓过节,中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000,78000】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退,随着端午长假临近,市场避险情绪回升,建议暂 | | | | 时观望,长期看,锌供增需弱,把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22 ...
中辉农产品观点-20250528
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 03:12
豆粕:美贸易关税风波利多市场情绪 延续反弹 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2966 | 2950 | 16 | 0. 54% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3005. 14 | 3008 | -2.86 | -0. 10% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2940 | 2880 | 60 | 2. 08% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3287.5 | -50 | -1.52% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2197.5 | 2206. 25 | -8. 75 | -0. 40% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3875 | 3875 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1383. 3 ...
中辉有色观点-20250528
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 03:03
中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美欧关税豁免延期,黄金调整,但是关税问题远没有解决,俄乌战火激烈,中 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变,长期看 黄金是未来秩序筹码,尚在秩序重塑途中,战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | | | 逻辑不变,全球经济需求较 2024 年或有下降,尽管各国财政关税对冲关税带来 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 的负面影响,但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大,黄金波动刺激跟随,价格没有 | | | | 摆脱此前区间,操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 短期铜关注上方 7 万 9 关口压力位,多单谨慎持有。随着端午三天假期临近,市场 避险情绪回升,警惕铜再次高位回落,中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【78000, | | | | 79500】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退,随着端午长假临近,市场避险情绪回升,建议暂 时观望,长期看,锌供增需弱,把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【222 ...