1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Low - level range operation [3] - **Iron Ore**: Bullish positions to take profits [8] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [11] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [14] - **Ferroalloys**: Cautiously short - sell at relatively low valuations [15] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: For rebar, production and apparent demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased month - on - month but the absolute level is still high, with a weak fundamental balance; for hot - rolled coil, apparent demand and production rebounded month - on - month, inventory decreased slightly but is still the highest in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - water output decreased slightly month - on - month, with an expectation of further reduction as steel mill maintenance increases. Steel mills and ports are destocking, external ore shipments increased while arrivals decreased. The static fundamentals weakened month - on - month, but the high iron - water output supports the ore price [7]. - **Coke**: After the fourth price increase was implemented, coke - making enterprises' profits improved significantly, and there are differences in the market regarding subsequent price cuts. Iron - water output decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level in the same period. Steel mills' restocking willingness declined, but coke - making enterprises' short - term shipments are okay, and most maintain normal production [10]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal mine production is slowly recovering, and the restocking willingness decreased after short - term phased demand was released. Mongolian ports stopped outward transportation due to bad weather, and the daily vehicle clearance is expected to drop below 1,000. The market sentiment has weakened recently, and the price quotation of Mongolian coal has been declining. The current supply shortage expectation still exists [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, port ore prices are relatively firm, production in the producing areas continues to decline, demand improves marginally, inventory remains at the highest level in the same period, and downstream steel mills restock as needed with strong price - bargaining sentiment in tenders; for ferrosilicon, most of the industry is in losses but large - scale production cuts have not started, demand improves marginally, downstream steel mills maintain on - demand procurement, price - bargaining sentiment in tenders is strong, and inventory destocking becomes more difficult after phased restocking demand is released [17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar 01 is at 3,089 with a 32 increase; hot - rolled coil 01 is at 3,295 with a 25 increase. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also have different changes [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Rebar production and apparent demand increased, inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand and production rebounded, and inventory decreased slightly [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term range - bound fluctuations are expected as iron - water output decreased slightly and steel mills' willingness to cut production is low [5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore 01 is at 791 with a 5 increase. Spot prices of different iron ore powders also have corresponding changes [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Iron - water output decreased slightly, with an expectation of further reduction. Steel mills and ports are destocking, external ore shipments increased while arrivals decreased, and the fundamentals weakened but the price is supported by high iron - water output [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take profits on long positions [8]. Coke - **Price Information**: Coke 1 - month contract is at 1,632.5 with an 18 increase. There are also changes in basis, contract spreads, and spot prices [9]. - **Market Analysis**: After the fourth price increase, coke - making enterprises' profits improved, and there are differences in the market regarding subsequent price cuts. Iron - water output decreased slightly, and steel mills' restocking willingness declined [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see as the market may fluctuate after the previous decline [11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Coking coal 1 - month contract is at 1,096.5 with a 6.5 decrease. There are also changes in basis, contract spreads, and spot prices [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Domestic coal mine production is recovering, restocking willingness declined, Mongolian port transportation was affected by weather, and the market sentiment weakened [13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, partially take profits on short positions, and wait for opportunities for new positions [14]. Ferroalloys - **Price Information**: Ferromanganese 01 is at 5,630 with a 24 increase; ferrosilicon 01 is at 5,424 with an 18 decrease. There are also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [16]. - **Market Analysis**: For ferromanganese, port ore prices are firm, production declines, demand improves marginally, and inventory is high; for ferrosilicon, the industry is mostly in losses, demand improves marginally, and inventory destocking is difficult [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For ferromanganese, be cautious as the price tests cost support after a rapid decline; for ferrosilicon, be cautious as the valuation is low but the fundamentals limit the upside [18].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄乌地缘出现缓和，油价走势偏弱。短期扰动：消息泽连斯基同意与美国 | | 原油 | | 合作制定和平计划，并将在近期与特朗普会谈；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 消费淡季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增， | | | | 原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及 | | | | 南美地缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 下游开工率下降，库存累库，液化气承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需方面，下游化工开工率下降，商品量小幅 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下降；库存端偏利空，港口与厂内库存累库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 化工板块超跌反弹，盘面跟随放量反弹。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口 | | L | | 资源集中到港，国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 6 周下滑，11 月下旬后 | | | 空头盘整 | 棚膜旺季逐步收尾，需求支部不足。油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Tin: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level correction [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged due to repeated internal Fed discussions on interest rate cuts and new geopolitical variables. Silver follows gold and other non - ferrous metals, with greater elasticity. Copper has long - term upward potential despite high inventories. Zinc is under short - term pressure and is expected to have an oversupply situation in the long run. Aluminum is under pressure at high levels due to the off - season effect. Nickel's supply - demand surplus persists, and its price remains weak. Lithium carbonate has short - term correction space [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold is at 926.94, down 0.91% from the previous value and 0.27% week - on - week; COMEX gold is at 4063, down 0.34% from the previous value and 0.11% week - on - week. SHFE silver is at 11680, down 3.07% from the previous value and 2.12% week - on - week; COMEX silver is at 49.66, down 0.01 from the previous value and 1.74% week - on - week. The dollar index is at 100.15, down 0.07% from the previous value and up 0.62% week - on - week [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: There are many data and event fluctuations, and there is support below for gold and silver. The long - term support for gold comes from Fed interest rate policy uncertainty, Japanese economic stimulus, and geopolitical factors [1][3]. Copper - **Market Review**: The overnight closing price of SHFE copper rose. The latest price of SHFE copper is 86180 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; LME copper is at 10778 dollars/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with the latest TC at - 41.72 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 dollars/ton. In October, China imported 245.1 million tons of copper concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The downstream actively purchased at low prices after the copper price decline, and the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 70.07%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19% [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Backed by the 85,000 yuan mark, try to go long on dips. In the medium - to - long term, be bullish on copper. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [85,000, 88,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper, it is [10,500, 11,000] dollars/ton [1][7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc was under pressure and fluctuated narrowly. The latest price of SHFE zinc is 22350 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; LME zinc is at 2992 dollars/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is short - term tight, and the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates has continued to decline. In October, the output of refined zinc increased by 1.71 million tons month - on - month to 61.72 million tons. Consumption has entered the off - season, the domestic zinc ingot export window has opened, and the LME zinc inventory has increased to 47325 tons, alleviating the soft squeeze risk [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure and fluctuates narrowly, waiting for more macro - level guidance. In the medium - to - long term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds. The range for SHFE zinc is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc, it is [2950, 3050] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price was under pressure at high levels, and alumina showed a weak trend at low levels. The latest price of LME aluminum is 2790.5 dollars/ton, down 0.57% from the previous value; SHFE aluminum is at 21340 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous value [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production by 21 million tons and are expected to cut production further in March next year. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in November is 62.1 million tons, flat compared to last week. For alumina, the bauxite shipment in Guinea is expected to increase, and the domestic alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for SHFE aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The operating range for the main contract is [21,000 - 21,600] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price continued to be weak, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined. The latest price of LME nickel is 14405 dollars/ton, down 0.35% from the previous value; SHFE nickel is at 114050 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from the previous value [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026. The global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has gradually weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. The operating range for the main nickel contract is [113,000 - 116,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened low and closed at the daily limit down [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 14 consecutive weeks, but there is obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and the operating rate still has room to rise. Terminal demand remains strong, but the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in November has slowed down [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the range of [89,500 - 93,000] yuan/ton [22]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比均上升，库存环比下降，杭州地区库存环比亦小幅下降，绝对水平 | | | 谨慎看空 | 仍然较高，基本面平衡偏弱。铁水产量环比略降，钢厂主动减限产意愿较低。短期维持 | | ★ | | 区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷表需及产量环比回升，库存小幅下降，仍为近年来同期最高。铁水产量小降，钢厂 | | ★ | | 减产意愿不强。短期或维持区间反复。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水环比小幅转降。后续钢厂检修陆续增加，铁水有减量预期，关注其落地 | | ★ | 多单止盈 | 情况。钢厂、港口去库。外矿发货增加，到货缩量，静态基本面环比转弱，但高铁水支 | | | | 撑下，矿价仍然坚挺。 | | | | 四轮提涨落地后焦企利润小幅改善，市场对于后续提降存在分歧。从需求来看，铁水产 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 量环比微降但整体维持高位运行，钢厂按需补库下，短期焦企出货情况尚可，多数维持 | | ★ | | 正常生产。前期盘面快速下行后行情或有反复，观望为主。 | | | ...

碳酸锂周报： 去库幅度不及预期，碳酸锂高位回落 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.11.21 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国11月一年期与五年期LPR维持不变，连续6个月保持不变。美国9月非农就业人口增长11.9万人，是预期5.1万的 两倍多，与此同时8月份新增就业人数从增长2.2万人下修2.6万，至减少0.4万人，7月和8月非农就业人数合计下修3.3万人。失 业率上升至4.4%，创四年来最高记录。受大规模经济刺激计划预期影响，日本国债收益率持续攀升，引发外资抛售潮。市场担忧 日本财政健康状况恶化，刺激政策可能推高债务风险。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量继续增加，周度产量维持在2.4万以上并创下年内新高，行业平均开工率回升至52%以上仍有上行空间。 2025年10月中国碳酸锂进口数量为2.38万吨，环比增加21.9%，同比增加3.0%。锂辉石进口数量为65.17万吨，环比减少8.3%。 【需求端】乘联分会发布数据，11月1-16日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售55.4万辆，同比增长2%，较上月同期增长7%，今年以来 累计零售1070.3万辆，同比增长21%；全国乘用车厂商新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, macro sentiment has cooled, and the market has prematurely priced in the Fed not cutting interest rates in December, with the stronger US dollar suppressing copper prices. Coupled with inventory accumulation at home and abroad, copper is under short - term pressure and is expected to test the important psychological support level of 85,000 yuan. In the short term, it is recommended to wait for the price to stop falling and stabilize before making right - side low - buying arrangements. In the long term, copper is still highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the China - US game and a substitute for precious metals, given the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming demand for green copper [3][83]. - New speculative investors should wait for the price to stop falling and stabilize, then make right - side layouts. They can try to go long at low levels around 84,500 - 85,000 yuan, with a stop - loss at 83,000 yuan. Long - term strategic long positions can buy copper put options to hedge risks. Industrial sellers can set up sell - hedges on price rebounds using an inverted pyramid approach. Industrial buyers can wait for the right time, make appropriate spot purchases based on rigid demand, and build long - term positions at low levels when prices correct to lock in raw material costs. The short - term price range for Shanghai copper is [84,000, 88,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [10,400, 11,000] US dollars/ton [4][83]. Summary of Each Section Overseas Macro - US economic data shows mixed results. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending November 15 was 220,000, lower than the expected 227,000. The number of continued jobless claims was 1.974 million, slightly higher than the expected 1.95 million. Existing home sales in October reached an eight - month high, with the median home price rising 2.1% year - on - year. The unemployment rate in September was 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, and non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, far exceeding the expected 51,000. The release of October non - farm data is postponed to December 16 [5]. - Fed hawkish officials have been vocal, and the probability of a rate cut on December 10 has dropped to 32.8%, a significant decline from over 90% a month ago. The US dollar index has returned above 100, suppressing copper prices [5]. - Trump publicly criticized Fed Chairman Powell and threatened to dismiss him, which has raised market concerns. Although the market has experienced a sharp decline, it is mainly due to liquidity concerns rather than economic recession fears. The Fed will stop selling Treasury bonds and end quantitative tightening starting from December 1 [5]. Domestic Macro - China's LPR remained unchanged in October, and the market is looking forward to the Politburo meeting in early December. In October, CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, while PPI fell 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points [10]. - The growth rate of social financing slowed down slightly in October, and the "scissors gap" between M2 and M1 widened. Industrial added value and service production index growth rates declined year - on - year, and retail sales growth slowed down. Fixed - asset investment decline widened, and real estate sales showed a decline in both volume and price, with the decline in development investment widening [10]. - The current economic downward pressure is significant, consumer and investment willingness is weak, the real estate market is facing a hard landing, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment is strong due to tense Asia - Pacific relations [10]. Copper Research Multi - and Short - Term Logic - Bullish factors include continuous tight global copper concentrate supply, anti - involution in the copper smelting industry at home and abroad, a decline in electrolytic copper production in October with expected further contraction, and strong demand for copper from the power and new - energy vehicle sectors in the long term [20]. - Bearish factors are the obvious suppression of demand by high copper prices, the entry into the consumption off - season with a decline in downstream enterprise operating rates, the difficult bottom - seeking of the real estate market, and the high level of global visible copper inventories [20]. Futures and Spot Market - As of November 20, COMEX copper was priced at 495.35 cents/pound (equivalent to 10,917.5 US dollars/ton), and LME copper was at 10,686 US dollars/ton, with a price difference of 231.5 US dollars/ton. The spot (0 - 3) of LME copper was at a discount of 18.89 US dollars/ton, and (3 - 15) was at a premium of 117.68 US dollars/ton [21]. - As of November 21, the spot of domestic electrolytic copper in the South China region had a premium of 95 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was 60 yuan/ton. After the copper price decline, downstream buyers actively purchased at low prices, and market trading picked up. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous electrolytic copper spot was at 85,980 yuan/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai copper was at 85,660 yuan/ton, with a basis of 320 yuan/ton [21]. - As of November 14, the net long position of speculative funds in LME copper was 60,294 lots, a 5.23% increase from the previous period. As of November 21, the main contract position of Shanghai copper was 190,218 lots, a 1.08% decrease, and the trading volume was 98,905 lots, a 4.58% decrease [21]. Copper Prices at Home and Abroad - As of November 21, LME copper was at 10,686 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.48% and an annual increase of 21.42%. COMEX copper main contract was at 495 cents/pound, with a weekly decline of 1.91% and an annual increase of 22.73%. The main contract of Shanghai copper was at 85,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.43% and an annual increase of 16.89% [23]. Fundamental Summary - Supply Global Copper Concentrate Supply - In 2025, many large copper mines around the world have unexpectedly reduced or halted production. The total output of major global copper mining enterprises in 2025 is expected to be 12.2 million tons, a 3.18% decrease from 2024. The copper concentrate TC is at a continuously low level, currently at - 41.72 US dollars/ton, a 0.2 - dollar decrease from the previous period [43][46]. - Freeport - McMoRan plans to restart the production of about 30% of the Indonesian Grasberg copper - gold mine by July next year. The negotiation of long - term contracts for copper concentrate and electrolytic copper is approaching during the upcoming CESCO meeting, and the spot market is expected to be quiet [43]. Domestic Copper Concentrate Supply - In October 2025, China imported 2.451 million tons of copper concentrate, a 5.9% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import from January to October was 25.086 million tons, a 7.5% increase year - on - year. The inventory of copper concentrate at major domestic ports is currently 7.049 million tons, a 570,000 - ton increase from the previous period [43]. Electrolytic Copper Supply - In October, the output of SMM China electrolytic copper decreased by 29,400 tons month - on - month to 1.0916 million tons, a 2.62% decrease, and is expected to further decrease by 4,000 tons in November. The import volume of refined copper in October was 323,100 tons, a 13.62% decrease month - on - month and a 16.32% decrease year - on - year [43]. Fundamental Summary - Demand - The copper consumption in renewable energy systems is 8 - 12 times that of traditional power generation systems. The copper consumption per unit in the photovoltaic field is 4 tons per megawatt, and the copper consumption for photovoltaic installation is about 0.5 tons per GW. The copper consumption of a pure - electric vehicle is 83 kilograms, 3.6 times that of a fuel - powered vehicle, and that of a pure - electric bus is 224 - 369 kilograms, more than 10 times that of a fuel - powered vehicle [61]. - In October, the operating rates of copper product industries generally declined, except for the copper foil industry, which increased. The sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in October was 1.657 million, a 19.3% increase year - on - year. The power investment maintained its resilience, especially the new photovoltaic installation [61]. Inventory at Home and Abroad - As of November 20, the copper inventory in mainstream domestic regions increased by 700 tons to 194,500 tons, and the bonded - area inventory increased by 500 tons to 86,200 tons. The total global exchange copper inventory was 664,100 tons, at a high level compared to the same period in history [74]. - The increase in inventory is due to the off - season of consumption at home and abroad, the opening of the domestic export window, and the influence of the COMEX - LME price difference. There is a potential risk of a local copper inventory backlog in the United States [74]. Summary and Outlook - The US non - farm employment data in September was mixed, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has declined, with the US dollar strengthening. China's macro data is weak, and the policy is in a vacuum period. The market sentiment is cooling, and attention should be paid to US inflation data, the Fed's December meeting, and China's Politburo meeting [83]. - The copper concentrate TC is at a low level, and the production of electrolytic copper has declined. After the copper price decline, downstream purchasing has increased, but the global visible copper inventory is at a high level. The power and automobile industries maintain their resilience, while the real estate and infrastructure sectors are weak [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of the black sector continued to diverge. The weekly increase of the rebar main contract was 0.1%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.4%, iron ore increased 1.7%, coke fell 3.3%, and coking coal dropped 7.5%. The supply - demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed that production and demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and the inventory depletion speed improved compared with the previous period. The molten iron data remained stable, and steel mills had little willingness to actively reduce or limit production. Molten iron production in November may run stably. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, with limited basis repair drive. Due to the lack of macro themes and the loosening of the coking coal supply end, the futures price weakened first [2]. - The steel market continued its dull trend. The downstream demand data of real estate, infrastructure, home appliances, etc. further weakened, and the overall black market was still suppressed by weak demand. In the short term, the contradictions in steel inventory, cost, and basis were relatively limited, making it difficult to provide a strong upward or downward driving force. The upward driving force of raw material restocking and the downward driving force of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of the next - stage market game. During the process of waiting for the accumulation of contradictions, the market may maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Monthly Data | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] 3.2 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2079600 | 79600 | - 3% | 2307900 | 144200 | - 6% | 5533400 | - 228300 | 24.32% | | Wire Rod | 789300 | 3600 | - 7% | 890000 | 15300 | - 8% | 1127000 | - 95800 | 18% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3160100 | 23500 | 1% | 3244200 | 108300 | 1% | 4021100 | - 84100 | 28% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 845300 | 5700 | 1.79% | 856200 | - 7700 | 1.06% | 1709800 | - 10900 | 15.64% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 1624800 | 42900 | 4.45% | 1648200 | 75500 | 4.33% | 1939700 | - 23400 | 4.51% | | Total | 8499100 | 155300 | - 0.06% | 8940000 | 34000 | - 1.22% | 14330000 | - 442500 | 20.48% | [5] 3.3 Steel Production Profit - On November 20, 2025, the profit changes of different steel products in different regions were as follows: for rebar - blast furnace, the changes in East China, North China, and Central China were - 3, 63, and 175 respectively; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the changes were - 7, 4, and 66; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the changes were - 52, - 73, and - 67; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the changes were 4, - 34, and 85 [20]. 3.4 Steel Demand 3.4.1 Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities compared with the same period last year was 7% [27]. - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities was 14% [27]. 3.4.2 Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement of cement out - bound volume, with a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30]. - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30]. 3.4.3 Steel Exports - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year [36]. - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference fell again [36]. 3.5 Steel Inventory 3.5.1 Rebar Basis - The rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets [50]. - After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence stage, the futures market usually fluctuates upward. Currently, rebar production is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected that the inventory will enter a normal depletion stage. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50]. 3.5.2 Hot - Rolled Coil Basis - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable and weak. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory in East China remained stable. The poor inventory depletion of hot - rolled coil recently put some pressure on the spot market, causing the basis to weaken [54]. 3.5.3 Rebar Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of rebar rebounded from a low level this week [60]. - The recent decrease in rebar inventory and the decline in the year - on - year inventory growth rate are conducive to the positive spread of the month - spread [60]. 3.5.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of hot - rolled coil changed little and was slightly at a discount. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the month - spread [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **PP**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **PTA**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Methanol**: Oscillating at the bottom, cautiously bearish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **LNG**: Bullish due to seasonal demand [46] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bullish [8] - **Glass**: Bearish trend continues [7] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish trend continues [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to lower oil prices. There is an oversupply in the off - season, and OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle. Pay attention to US shale oil production and geopolitical developments [1][12]. - **LPG**: Downstream operating rates decline, and inventories accumulate, pressuring LPG prices. The cost side is affected by crude oil trends [1][17]. - **L**: Domestic supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient. The bearish trend continues [1][22]. - **PP**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are high, demand is weak, and oil prices may continue to fall. The bearish trend persists [1][26]. - **PVC**: Basis is repaired, but social inventories are high. There is limited room for further price decline due to low valuations [1][30]. - **PTA**: Supply - side pressure eases, downstream demand is relatively good, but cost pressure exists. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [3][32]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream demand is relatively good, but there is a lack of upward drivers. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [3][35]. - **Methanol**: Supply pressure is large, demand has improved slightly, and the cost side has weak support. It is in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage [3][39]. - **Urea**: Domestic fundamentals are loose, with high supply and mixed demand. Be wary of downward risks [3][43]. - **LNG**: As the temperature drops, demand for heating increases, but supply is sufficient, and the upward momentum is weakening [46][48]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by South American geopolitics, there is short - term support. However, it is in the consumption off - season, and prices may still have room to decline [8][52]. - **Glass**: Supply has declined, but demand is weak due to the weak real - estate market. The bearish trend continues [7][57]. - **Soda Ash**: Demand support weakens, and the bearish trend continues [7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: International oil prices dropped last Friday. WTI decreased by 1.59%, Brent by 2.27%, and SC by 0.44% [11] - **Fundamental Logic**: Downstream refined - oil profits are good, but there is an oversupply of crude oil. Geopolitical factors also affect prices [12] - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Arabia's September crude oil exports reached a 7 - month high. OPEC forecasts global crude oil demand growth. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending November 14 [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the SC price range of [440 - 450] [14] LPG - **Market Review**: On November 21, the PG main contract closed at 4363 yuan/ton, down 0.43% [16] - **Fundamental Logic**: It is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Downstream chemical operating rates decline, and inventories accumulate [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the PG price range of [4150 - 4250] [18] L - **Futures and Spot Market**: The L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton. The basis is - 18 yuan/ton [21] - **Fundamental Logic**: The basis is repaired, supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. Cost support is insufficient [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the L price range of [6800 - 6950] [22] PP - **Futures and Spot Market**: The PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton. The basis is + 28 yuan/ton [25] - **Fundamental Logic**: The cost side is weak, inventories are high, and demand is weak. Oil prices may continue to fall [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the PP price range of [6350 - 6500] [26] PVC - **Futures and Spot Market**: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton. The basis is - 76 yuan/ton [29] - **Fundamental Logic**: The basis is repaired, anti - dumping is unlikely, and export orders increase. Social inventories are high, but there is low - valuation support [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the V price range of [4400 - 4550] [30] PTA - **Market Data**: PTA spot processing fee is 161.6 yuan/ton. Some new devices are put into operation, and some are under maintenance [31][32] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply - side pressure eases, demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. There is an inventory - accumulation expectation in December [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices [32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 closed at 3901 yuan/ton. The basis is 40 yuan/ton [34] - **Fundamental Logic**: Domestic operating loads decline, overseas loads increase slightly. Demand is relatively good, but there is an inventory - accumulation expectation in November [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the EG price range of [3760 - 3830] [36] Methanol - **Market Data**: The main contract's position is 137.1 million lots. The 11 - month import volume is estimated to be about 1.5 million tons [39] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply pressure is large, demand improves slightly, and the cost side has weak support [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract at low prices [39] Urea - **Market Data**: The UR01 closed at 1654 yuan/ton. Daily production is 202,500 tons [42] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply pressure remains, demand is mixed, and inventories are still high. Be wary of downward risks [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices. Pay attention to the UR price range of [1635 - 1665] [45] LNG - **Market Review**: On November 21, the NG main contract closed at 4.667 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.81% [47] - **Fundamental Logic**: As the temperature drops, demand increases, but supply is sufficient. US natural gas inventories decreased [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is likely to rise but has limited upward space. Pay attention to the NG price range of [4.548 - 4.901] [49] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 21, the BU main contract closed at 3009 yuan/ton, down 1.60% [51] - **Fundamental Logic**: It is affected by South American geopolitics and crude - oil costs. Supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions and buy call options. Pay attention to the BU price range of [2950 - 3050] [53] Glass - **Futures and Spot Market**: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton. The basis is 77 yuan/ton [56] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply declines, but demand is weak due to the real - estate market [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the bearish trend persists. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the FG price range of [1000 - 1050] [57] Soda Ash - **Fundamental Logic**: Demand support weakens, and the bearish trend continues [7][58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions at low prices. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term [7]

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美国 9 月份数据整体利空，但是此前已经有计价，数据情绪提前被交易。黄金短期 | | | 长线持有 | 大驱动较少，长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | ★ | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银跟随黄金上下波动，美联储态度和数据结果影响市场对于金银的交易，白银弹 | | 白银 | 长线持有 | 性大更大。长期来看白银基本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽 | | ★ | | 松货币投放提供流动性。关注 11500 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美 9 月非农喜忧参半，新增就业超预期但失业率走高，美联储 12 月降息分歧严重， | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 海内外铜库存累库，铜隔夜高开低走，承压回落，关注下方 8 万 5 关口支撑，中长 | | ★ | | 期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 锌供需双弱，消费淡季，国内锌锭出口窗口打开，海外伦锌库存增加，软挤仓风险 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Beans meal (short - term), Rapeseed meal (short - term), Rapeseed oil (short - term), Cotton (medium - to - long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Palm oil, Red dates, Live pigs (near - term) [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean oil, Cotton (short - term) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans meal**: Short - term consolidation, look for short - term long opportunities after adjustment, focus on Brazilian soybean planting weather [1][3] - **Rapeseed meal**: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation, with a tendency to rebound, pay attention to the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][6] - **Palm oil**: Weak consolidation, with inventory accumulation expected in November, hold off on going long for now [1][8] - **Soybean oil**: Short - term oscillation, limited adjustment space, look for long opportunities after adjustment [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Short - term bullish, fundamental is strong, be cautious about shorting [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish, short - term weak oscillation, consider range trading; medium - to - long - term, look for low - buying opportunities [1][12] - **Red dates**: Rebound under pressure, maintain a bearish attitude in the long - run, short - term wait - and - see [1][14] - **Live pigs**: Oscillate weakly in the near - term, consider rolling short - selling and reverse arbitrage; may enter a new cycle after H2 2026 [1][17] 3. Summaries by Variety Beans meal - **Market situation**: Futures price is 3017 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; national average spot price is 3079.71 yuan/ton, down 0.39% [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 992.6 million tons, down 40.8 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 747.71 million tons, down 1.87%; bean meal inventory is 99.29 million tons, down 0.57% [3] - **Analysis**: Brazilian rainfall is expected to be slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days. Spot oil mills' sales pressure is down. US - China soybean import tariff issue remains unresolved. Look for short - term long opportunities after adjustment [1][3] Rapeseed meal - **Market situation**: Futures price is 2412 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; national average spot price is 2500.53 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - **Inventory**: As of November 14, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 0 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 million tons, down 0.3 million tons week - on - week [6] - **Analysis**: Canada can't cancel tariffs on China, new Australian rapeseed will arrive at the port on November 22, bearish for market sentiment. But the contract rebounded after short - sellers took profits. It may stop falling and rebound [1][6] Palm oil - **Market situation**: Futures price is 8646 yuan/ton, down 2.33%; national average price is 8755 yuan/ton, down 1.16% [7] - **Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, national commercial inventory is 65.32 million tons, up 9.36% week - on - week [8] - **Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 20 days of November weakened, price fell. Inventory accumulation is expected in November, hold off on going long [1][8] Cotton - **Market situation**: Futures price of main contract (CF2601) is 13465 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; US cotton main contract is 63.78 cents/pound, down 0.15% [9] - **Inventory**: National commercial inventory is 328.24 million tons, up 43 million tons; Xinjiang commercial inventory is 270.51 million tons, up 39 million tons [9] - **Analysis**: USDA's negative data increased the global stock - to - use ratio, pressuring US cotton. Domestic supply is high, but new cotton sales are fast. Short - term range trading, medium - to - long - term low - buying [1][12] Red dates - **Market situation**: Futures price of main contract (CJ2601) is 9300 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [13] - **Inventory**: 36 sample enterprises' inventory is 9840 tons, up 299 tons week - on - week [13][14] - **Analysis**: New jujube production is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons, supply is excessive. Maintain a bearish attitude, short - term wait - and - see [1][14] Live pigs - **Market situation**: Futures price of main contract (lh2601) is 11440 yuan/ton, down 1.04%; national average spot price is 11810 yuan/ton, up 0.60% [15] - **Inventory**: National sample enterprise pig inventory is 3844.62 million heads, up 0.15%; slaughter volume is 11.9653 million heads, up 11.85% [15] - **Analysis**: Near - term supply is loose, Q4 will see cost - based competition. Long - term, a new cycle may start after H2 2026 [1][17]