1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish on dips [1] - PTA: Bullish on dips [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Showing signs of stopping decline [1] - Caustic soda: Bearish [1] - Methanol: Bearish on rallies [1] - Urea: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices are rebounding strongly. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, and the upcoming summer peak season for crude oil consumption provides support [1][4][5]. - LPG: Supply and demand are both increasing, and LPG is in a sideways adjustment. The cost - end oil price is driven by geopolitical factors and the consumption peak season, and the pressure on the futures market has decreased [1][7][8]. - L: After the holiday, petrochemical inventories have increased, and there is no upward driving force in the short - term. Although the decline space is limited, there is still a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][10]. - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][13]. - PVC: The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][16]. - PX: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals continue to improve in May. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost [1][17][18]. - PTA: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, but the demand is relatively good for now. It is short - term bullish but there is a weakening expectation in the future, so pay attention to shorting opportunities [1][20][21]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure has been relieved, and the demand is at a high level but expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and it is short - term bullish [1][22]. - Glass: The medium - term demand is shrinking, and the spot price is falling. The cost center is moving down, and the bottom - fishing is not safe [1][24][25]. - Soda ash: The supply pressure is increasing, and the rigid demand support is insufficient. The inventory is at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1][26][27]. - Caustic soda: The supply has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The futures market is weakening [1][29]. - Methanol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1]. - Urea: The supply pressure remains, but there is support from the peak fertilizer - using season in July and the Indian tender. It shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and the inventory is relatively favorable. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.42%, Brent up 1.55%, and SC up 2.74% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks have risen due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Supply from Russia and Brazil is stable, and global demand is expected to increase slightly. US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, oil prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to over - supply. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors and may fall after the risk is released. SC focuses on [465 - 485] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 3, the PG main contract closed at 4074 yuan/ton, up 0.94% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price strengthened during the Dragon Boat Festival. Supply and demand are both increasing, with refinery production rising and PDH device demand expected to increase. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, it is bearish due to over - supply of upstream crude oil. Technically, it is sideways. The strategy is to sell call options. PG focuses on [4065 - 4130] [9]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and import margins were relatively stable [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, but there is still pressure from new device production in the medium - term. Demand is weak in June. Petrochemical inventories have increased after the holiday [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities. Be cautious about the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of different contracts rose slightly, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and production margins changed slightly [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Many maintenance devices have restarted, increasing supply. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and new capacity will intensify the supply - demand contradiction [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices were stable or slightly decreased. Cost and profit indicators changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance scale has narrowed, increasing supply. Demand is in the off - season due to the approaching rainy season. The cost has decreased [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Be aware of macro - systematic risks [16]. PX - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and processing spreads changed [17]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profit has improved, and domestic and overseas device loads have increased, increasing supply. PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, improving demand. Inventory decreased in April but is still high [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6510, 6680] [19]. PTA - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [20]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, increasing supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is short - term bullish, but pay attention to shorting opportunities due to the expected weakening of fundamentals [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, relieving supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4270, 4350] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the futures market was under pressure. The basis increased, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro - risk preference is low, and the medium - term demand for glass is shrinking. In the short - term, it is the off - season, and enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory. Supply is not expected to decrease due to profit [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [950, 980], and it is expected to approach the 5 - day moving average in the short - term [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot prices decreased, and the futures market was weak. The basis increased, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the forecast increased [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is increasing as maintenance devices restart and new capacity comes on - stream. Demand is weak due to the decline of the glass market and the end of the photovoltaic rush. Inventory is high [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rebounded at a low level. The basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has increased as many maintenance devices restarted. The profit of alumina has improved, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has decreased. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided in the given text. Methanol - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase as the overseas arrival volume is expected to be realized. Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and inventory is accumulating [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. Pay attention to shorting opportunities [1]. Urea - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains as maintenance devices restart. Demand is in the domestic off - season but has support from the Indian tender and the peak fertilizer - using season in July. Cost is weak but has a bottom support [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and shorting on rallies. Urea shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: None provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and inventory is relatively favorable. Demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the trend of oil prices. BU focuses on [3500 - 3560] [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation and accumulation of momentum. The overall fundamentals are bearish, and the bullish view is treated as a technical rebound. Short - selling opportunities after the rebound can be considered [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. Considering the possible improvement of China - Canada relations, caution is needed when chasing long positions [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound and consolidation. It is expected to maintain a bullish trend this week, but short - selling opportunities after the rebound should be noted due to the ongoing inventory accumulation cycle [1]. - **Cotton**: Weak operation. It is expected to fluctuate weakly below 70 cents in the international market, and the upward driving force of domestic cotton prices is weak in the near future [1]. - **Red Dates**: Short - term weakening. The market is expected to be weak this week, and attention should be paid to weather - related premium disturbances [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Oscillating at the bottom. The strategy is to sell high and short, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread opportunity [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: South American soybean production is basically determined, and U.S. soybean planting has started with a progress much higher than last year and the five - year average. There is sufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and the rainfall outlook for June is normal according to CPC [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are continuously increasing. As the operating rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory accumulation cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and there is a need for replenishment. The monthly average import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of May 30, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.054 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 5.8288 million tons [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.11% to 2935 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price decreased by 1.55% to 2929.14 yuan/ton. There were changes in various spreads such as basis, cross - variety spreads, and cross - term spreads [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply Situation**: Currently, oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have no pressure, but commercial rapeseed meal inventories are high, which is bearish for the July contract. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and long - term imports are expected to be low due to poor import profits from Canada. However, the possible improvement of China - Canada relations may affect the supply situation [1][4]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 3.03% to 2557 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price decreased by 0.36% to 2616.32 yuan/ton. There were changes in basis, cross - variety spreads, and cross - term spreads [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Export**: As of May 30, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 364,000 tons, a 7.47% increase from last week. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 30 days of May were strong, and India's palm oil imports increased significantly in May. India also lowered the import tariff on edible oils starting from May 30 [9][10]. - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The futures price of the main contract increased by 1.69% to 8196 yuan/ton, and the national average price increased by 2.00% to 8690 yuan/ton. The proportion of market participants looking up increased, while the proportions of those looking flat and down decreased [9]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of June 1, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 66%, and about 7% of the cotton - growing areas were affected by drought. The new - crop good - quality rate was 49%. The 2024/25 Brazilian cotton production is estimated to be 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% increase year - on - year [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well, and the new - season production is expected to reach 7.2 - 7.4 million tons. The import of cotton resources has decreased for four consecutive times, and the domestic textile industry is in the off - season with limited order rebounds [13]. - **Price and Related Data**: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 0.11% to 13260 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.15% to 14558 yuan/ton. There were changes in basis, cross - term spreads, and other data [11]. Red Dates - **Production and Inventory**: The main contract decreased by 0.23% to 8625 yuan/ton. The growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is normal, and the physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 85 tons this week, still higher than the same period last year [15][16]. - **Market Situation**: The market supply in the sales area is continuous, and merchants mainly replenish for刚需. With the rise in temperature, the demand for dried fruits is expected to decline seasonally [16]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: The main contract decreased by 0.81% to 13510 yuan/ton. The supply pressure has not significantly improved, and both group farms and farmers are increasing the slaughter volume. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased significantly, and the demand is expected to decline after the festival [18][19]. - **Price and Related Data**: The national average spot price increased by 0.07% to 14650 yuan/ton. There were changes in inventory, slaughter volume, and other data [18].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 2905 | -62 | 热卷01 | 3045 | -37 | | 螺纹05 | 2910 | -63 | 热卷05 | 3046 | -57 | | 螺纹10 | 2928 | -33 | 热卷10 | 3052 | -24 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2860 | -30 | 张家港废钢 | 2080 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3130 | -10 | 热卷:天津 | 3100 | -40 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3090 | -30 | 热卷:上海 | 3170 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3090 | -20 | 热卷:杭州 | 3160 | -20 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3200 | -40 | 热卷： 广州 | 3200 | -30 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3190 | -20 | 热卷:成都 | 3390 | -2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1][3][4] - LPG: Bullish [1][6][7] - L: Sideways [1][9][10] - PP: Sideways [1][12][13] - PVC: Sideways [1][15][16] - PX: Bullish [1][18][19] - PTA: Bullish [1][21][22] - MEG: Bullish [1][24][25] - Glass: Bearish [2][27][28] - Soda Ash: Bearish [2][30][31] - Caustic Soda: Pullback [2][32][33] - Methanol: Rebound and Short [2] - Urea: Cautiously Long at Low Levels [2] - Asphalt: Bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks rise, OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and the summer consumption peak is approaching, so the price is bullish [1][3][4] - LPG: Oil price rebounds and warehouse receipt pressure decreases, so the short - term trend is bullish [1][6][7] - L: After the holiday, the decline of spot prices slows down. Short - term supply pressure eases, but there is no upward driver in the off - season, so it shows a sideways trend [1][9][10] - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and it is in the domestic demand off - season. After continuous decline, it oscillates, and there is still a risk of further decline in the medium term [1][12][13] - PVC: Supply increases, demand is weak in both domestic and foreign markets, and there are multiple negative factors, so the price still has a risk of further decline [1][15][16] - PX: Profit improves, device load increases, and both supply and demand increase. It follows cost fluctuations and is bullish [1][18][19] - PTA: Although there is a plan for new capacity in June, downstream demand is relatively good and inventory is decreasing. It is bullish in the short term, but there are concerns about the weakening of fundamentals [1][21][22] - MEG: Device maintenance increases, arrival volume is low, and supply pressure eases. Demand is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing, so it is bullish in the short term [1][24][25] - Glass: Macro risks reduce risk preference, and demand in the medium term shrinks. In the short - term off - season, the spot market is weak, and the price is bearish [2][27][28] - Soda Ash: Supply pressure increases, demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. The cost center moves down, so the price is bearish [2][30][31] - Caustic Soda: Supply increases slightly, and the price corrects within a range [2][32][33] - Methanol: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. It may rebound with the oil price, but there are short - selling opportunities [2] - Urea: Supply pressure remains, but there are some positive factors such as the peak fertilizer - using period and the India tender. It has a "ceiling and floor" trend [2] - Asphalt: Driven by the cost of rising oil prices, it is bullish in the short term [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 2.85% and Brent up 2.95%. SC had no quote during the Dragon Boat Festival [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ production increase in July meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks rise due to the Ukraine - Russia conflict. Global oil demand is expected to increase slightly, and US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors such as trade wars and new energy, supply is in excess, and the price fluctuates between 55 - 65 dollars. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors, and SC is expected to be in the range of [465 - 485] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 30, the PG main contract closed at 4036 yuan/ton, down 1.68% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil increased during the holidays, and the fundamentals of LPG improved. Downstream PDH operating rate increased, and port inventory decreased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and LPG is over - valued, so it is bearish. After the holiday, it may gap up. Temporarily wait and see, and go short at high levels after risk release. PG is expected to be in the range of [4080 - 4150] [8]. L - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the decline of spot prices slowed down, and the North China basis was 90 (up 55 month - on - month) [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: After the holiday, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, but demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 30 - 80 yuan/ton [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term supply pressure eases, but there is no upward driver. The short - term decline space is limited, but there is a risk of further decline in the medium term. Go short on rebounds. L is expected to be in the range of [6900 - 7050] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the East China drawstring basis was 180 (up 38 month - on - month) [13]. - **Basic Logic**: In June, new capacity is concentrated, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to be weak and sideways, with a possible buffer increase at the beginning of the month [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is high pressure from new device production, and it is in the domestic demand off - season. After continuous decline, it oscillates, and there is still a risk of further decline in the medium term. Go short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [6800 - 6950] [13]. PVC - **Market Review**: The Changzhou basis was - 84 (up 10 month - on - month), and warehouse receipts continued to decline [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Maintenance decreases, supply increases, and demand is weak both at home and abroad. The cost is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to cost collapse, device production expectations, and export uncertainties, the price still has a risk of further decline. Go short on rebounds. V is expected to be in the range of [4750 - 4850] [16]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 6900 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6618 yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profit improves, device load increases, and both supply and demand increase. The inventory decreased in April but is still high. In May, the fundamentals continued to improve, and it is bullish [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6650 - 6800] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 4940 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Although there are many device maintenance and a plan for new capacity in June, the demand from downstream polyester is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing. However, there are concerns about the weakening of fundamentals [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4730 - 4830]. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. MEG - **Market Review**: On May 30, the spot price in the East China region was 4488 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4349 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance increases, arrival volume is low, and supply pressure eases. Demand from downstream polyester is relatively good, and inventory is decreasing [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4350 - 4430]. Continue to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low levels [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes were lowered, the futures price broke through support, the basis fluctuated slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro risks reduce risk preference, and the decline in real - estate completion has expanded, so the medium - term demand for glass shrinks. In the short - term off - season, enterprises and traders reduce prices to clear inventory, and the cost center moves down [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [970 - 1000], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was lowered, the futures price was weak, the basis was low, the number of warehouse receipts increased, and the number of forecasts decreased [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Demand is insufficient due to the weak glass market and the end of the photovoltaic installation peak. Inventory is high, and the cost center moves down [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1180 - 1210], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda was stable, the futures price rose at a low level, the basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases slightly as the capacity utilization rate rises. The profit of the alumina industry improves, and the inventory of caustic soda decreases [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price corrects within a range, and SA is expected to be in the range of [2400 - 2450] [2][33]. Methanol - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. It may rebound with the oil price, but there are short - selling opportunities. MA is expected to be in the range of [2220 - 2280] [2]. Urea - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply pressure remains, but there are positive factors such as the peak fertilizer - using period in July and the India tender. It has a "ceiling and floor" trend, and a strategy of going long at low levels and shorting at high levels can be adopted. UR is expected to be in the range of [1780 - 1820] [2]. Asphalt - **Strategy Recommendation**: Driven by the cost of rising oil prices, it is bullish in the short term. BU is expected to be in the range of [3500 - 3560] [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Strong supplementary increase [1] - Silver: Strong oscillation [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Lithium carbonate: Under pressure [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing trend of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged, and the bull market for gold is far from over. Gold and silver prices are expected to rise, with silver following gold [2][3]. - Due to geopolitical risks and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term with potential for long - term growth [1][5]. - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak, with limited upside potential in the long term [1][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to factors such as inventory and demand [8][9]. - Nickel prices face pressure on the rebound due to supply - demand games [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure because of supply overhang and cost factors [11][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Tariffs change again, geopolitical situation escalates, and the price of foreign gold rebounds strongly, with domestic gold making up the increase [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump plans to raise steel import tariffs, and the Russia - Ukraine situation escalates. In the short term, geopolitical variables are large, and in the long term, the bull market for gold is far from over [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For short - term gold, go long on the futures market, and control positions for long - term investment. Silver will follow the upward trend of gold, with a short - term range of [8200, 8450] [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME copper first declined and then rose, and COMEX copper rose by more than 3% [4]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and there are potential risks such as soft squeeze - out of warehouses. The downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion situation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Shanghai copper may open higher and move higher. It is recommended to go long on dips with light positions. In the long term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79000], and for LME copper is [9500, 9800] dollars [5]. Zinc - **Market Review**: During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, LME zinc rebounded and rose by more than 2% [6]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, affected by the steel market [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: LME zinc's rebound may drive Shanghai zinc to open higher. In the long term, short on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for LME zinc is [2650, 2780] dollars/ton [7]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices are falling [8]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - trade environment eases. For electrolytic aluminum, inventory decreases, and demand is differentiated. For alumina, supply is in surplus, and attention should be paid to overseas ore disturbances [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For Shanghai aluminum, look for short - term opportunities to short on rebounds, with a range of [19800 - 20500]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [9]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices face pressure on the rebound, and stainless steel is relatively weak [10]. - **Industry Logic**: The overseas macro - environment eases. The cost support for nickel weakens, and the supply pressure is obvious. Stainless steel is entering the off - season, and inventory pressure may reappear [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, with a range for nickel of [118000 - 125000] [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2507 opened low and moved high, with significant position reduction and rebound [11]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply is in surplus. The upstream smelters have high inventory pressure, and the demand is weak. The cost of lithium ore is still falling, and the negative feedback cycle continues [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies, with a range of [59240 - 61000] [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Rebound for Multiple Products**: The report predicts short - term rebounds for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil. For soybean meal, it's due to factors like uncertain US - China trade impact and domestic inventory conditions; rapeseed meal has a better fundamental outlook with expected lower long - term imports; palm oil is influenced by low domestic inventory and potential policy support [1]. - **Weak Performance for Cotton and Jujube**: Cotton is expected to be weak both internationally and domestically due to improved supply and lackluster demand. Jujube is likely to be weak in the short - term because of high old - crop inventory and weakening demand [1]. - **Oscillation and Bottom - Grinding for Hogs**: The hog market is in an oscillation and bottom - grinding phase. There is increasing de - stocking pressure on the spot side, and post - holiday demand is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started with favorable rainfall in the next 15 days and normal rainfall expected in June according to CPC weather outlook [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are increasing. As the operating rate rises, soybean meal supply will ease and enter a stocking cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish. May - July monthly imports are estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of May 23, 2025, port soybean inventory decreased slightly week - on - week but increased year - on - year, while oil mill soybean inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased significantly week - on - week [1][4]. - **Price Outlook**: It's expected to open slightly lower and continue to trade above 2930 yuan. The overall fundamental situation is bearish, and the short - term rebound is technical. The 3000 - 3070 yuan range is a strong short - term resistance [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Supply**: As of May 23, coastal oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are in a good state. Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is higher than the past two years. However, May - July rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and long - term imports are expected to be low due to poor import profits from Canada [1][6]. - **Price Outlook**: It shows a short - term stop - falling and rebound trend, with the main contract trading in the [2585, 2650] range [1]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Export**: As of May 23, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. Malaysian palm oil exports in May showed good performance. The market is concerned about the potential policy of Malaysia increasing the biodiesel blend from B10 to B20 [1][8]. - **Price Outlook**: It's in a short - term rebound and consolidation phase. The domestic low - inventory situation eases supply pressure, but the Southeast Asian inventory cycle may cause the price to move down. The main contract is expected to trade in the [7950, 8200] range [1]. Cotton - **International Situation**: In the US, the cotton planting and budding rates are at certain levels, and soil moisture has improved, which is bearish for the US cotton market. In Brazil, the 2024/25 cotton production is expected to increase [1][10]. - **Domestic Situation**: Xinjiang's cotton seedlings are budding, and the new cotton growth is good. There are increasing production expectations, and the new - season production is estimated to be 720 - 740 million tons. The import of cotton resources has decreased, and the domestic textile industry is in a off - season with limited order recovery [1][11]. - **Price Outlook**: Internationally, it's expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents. Domestically, it may be weak due to factors like potential high - temperature disturbances in June and limited demand growth [1][12]. Jujube - **Production and Inventory**: Xinjiang's jujube trees are growing well. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises has increased, and it's higher than the same period. The sales area has continuous supply, but the demand is weakening seasonally [1][14]. - **Price Outlook**: It's expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract trading in the [8600, 8850] range, and attention should be paid to weather - related price impacts [1]. Hogs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the second - fattening enthusiasm has declined, and the theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter will slow down from April to June 2025. In the medium - term, the pressure of pig slaughter in the third quarter is extending. In the long - term, the decline in the number of breeding sows in April 2025 is not significant. There may be a short - term increase in demand during the Dragon Boat Festival, but post - holiday demand is likely to fall [1][17]. - **Price Outlook**: The market is in an oscillation and bottom - grinding phase. The strategy is to short on rallies for contracts in July, September, and November, and consider the 9 - 11 reverse spread opportunity. The main contract is expected to trade in the [13400, 13750] range [1][18].

Report Information - Analyst: He Hui, Energy and Chemical Team, including Guo Jianfeng, Guo Yanpeng, and Li Qian [2] - Company: Zhonghui Futures Co., Ltd. - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In May, the domestic and overseas macroeconomic situation did not improve significantly, and the commodity market was weak. The soda ash futures market was also in a downward trend, searching for a bottom. [3] - Soda ash is facing a situation of over - capacity, insufficient demand, and cost collapse. In the short term, it is difficult to find supply - demand drivers, while in the long - term, it is anchored to natural soda ash cost and demand growth rate. [3] Market Review Futures Market - As of May 30, the SA2509 contract closed at 1,190 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of - 12% (a decrease of 165 yuan) [6] 现货市场 - In May, the prices of heavy soda ash were differentiated, with most prices decreasing by 50 yuan/ton, a change ranging from - 5.1% to 3.2% [6] Basis - In May, the spot price of soda ash was weak, while the futures price was even weaker, resulting in a stronger basis. The basis of the main SA509 contract (against Shahe heavy soda ash) was 40 points, with a basis rate of 3.3% [8] Inter - month Spread - The SA09 - 01 contract spread was 2 points, changing from negative to positive, showing a flat - water structure. The SA01 - 05 contract spread was - 52 points, indicating a weaker expectation for the far - month contract [11] Term Structure and Inter - commodity Spread - The soda ash futures market changed from a contango structure to a near - month back flat - water structure, compressing the downward space. The FG - SA09 contract spread was about - 200, and the long - glass short - soda ash spread had a profit of 100 points from - 300 [13] Supply Analysis Device Maintenance and New Capacity - Currently, the maintenance devices of soda ash plants are gradually restarting, and new capacities are being put into production one after another. In 2025, the total planned new capacity is 590 tons/year [17][18] Operating Rate - In May, the comprehensive operating rate of soda ash decreased significantly. Currently, the national operating rate is 78.57% (a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%), with the ammonia - soda process operating rate at 71.41% (a month - on - month decrease of 15.71%) and the combined - soda process operating rate at 76.54% (a month - on - month decrease of 10.58%) [20] Production - In May, the weekly average production of soda ash was 70.32 tons, with the estimated monthly production at 311.41 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The weekly average production of heavy soda ash was 38.38 tons, with the estimated monthly production at 170 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [31][34] Demand Analysis Glass Melting Volume - Currently, the daily melting volume of float glass is 15.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 9.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [39] Total Melting Volume - In May, the average daily total production of float glass and photovoltaic glass was 25.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% [42] Supply - demand Gap of Heavy Soda Ash - In May, the estimated monthly demand for heavy soda ash was 158.4 tons, and the supply - demand surplus was 11.55 tons, still in a state of oversupply [43] Inventory Analysis Total Inventory - Currently, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 162.43 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 98.52%. The available inventory days are 13.47 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 days and a year - on - year increase of 6.6 days [51] Inventory of Heavy and Light Soda Ash - Currently, the inventory of heavy soda ash is 80.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 76.95%. The inventory of light soda ash is 81.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 125.6% [54] Cost and Profit Analysis Cost - Currently, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process is 1,283 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.39%. The production cost of the combined - soda process (double - ton) is 1,610 yuan/ton (75% single - ton cost is 1,208 yuan), a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.1% [58] Profit - Currently, the production profit of the ammonia - soda process is 67.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49.7 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 85.28%. The production profit of the combined - soda process is 215 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.5 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 78.49% [60] Trading Strategies Single - side Strategy - Currently, the main 09 contract has fallen below the combined - soda process cost of 1,200 yuan/ton. Technically, it shows a short - position arrangement of moving averages. Maintain a bearish view, dynamically track the pressure level of the 20 - day moving average, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,250 [4] Arbitrage Strategy - Currently, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash is near 0, almost at par. Considering the seasonal maintenance in summer and the planned new natural soda ash capacity at the end of the year, participate in the 9 - 1 positive spread. In terms of inter - commodity spreads, the FG - SA09 contract spread is about - 200, and the long - glass short - soda ash spread can still be held in the short term, and stop profit when the spread narrows to - 150 [4] Hedging Strategy - Currently, the inventory of soda ash plants is at an absolute high level. Upstream enterprises can pay attention to the short - hedging opportunities of the 09 contract when the futures price is at a premium or at par with the spot price, around 1,200 - 1,250. Downstream glass enterprises can conduct long - hedging when the futures price is lower than the spot delivery cost [4]

分析师：何慧 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.05.30 【观点】5月浮法玻璃市场继续面临"弱现实+弱预期"的双重压力，价格中枢持续下探。宏观层面，海外关税风险缓和，美债危机 担忧出现，整体风险偏好不高。国内经济从一季度的"生产强、需求弱"转为"产需双弱"的格局，4月PPI同比下降2.7%，工业品 通缩格局依旧。1-4月地产竣工同比下跌16.9%，跌幅再次扩大，玻璃中期需求继续萎缩。进入6月，梅雨季+夏季高温陆续来临，需 求淡季预期背景下，中上游库存偏高，企业和贸易商主动降价去库为主，现货市场疲软运行。淡季悲观预期下，主力合约贴水现货 价格。供应端来看，目前煤制产线仍有利润，供应缩减动力不足，玻璃开工率和日熔量低位回升，供应压力显现。随着原料纯碱和 燃料煤炭价格持续创新低，带动玻璃成本重心下移，进一步拖累玻璃期现价格，抄底仍不具有安全边际，至少要看到供需两端的改 善以及成本端的止跌企稳才可尝试多头。 【策略】 单边策略：目前主 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In June, the global iron ore supply - demand balance is statically loose, and the price will fluctuate weakly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In May, the spot and futures prices of iron ore fluctuated weakly. As of May 29, the futures price of the main contract decreased by 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [4]. 3.2 Supply - side - The shipments of the four major mines are expected to increase by about 3 million tons in June compared to the previous month. Specifically, VALE is expected to ship 25 million tons, up 300,000 tons; Rio Tinto 27.85 million tons, up 1.9 million tons; BHP 27.2 million tons, up about 1.85 million tons; FMG 17.75 million tons, down 1.05 million tons [6][26][29]. - Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable. In June, the estimated shipment is 44.85 million tons, a decrease of about 50,000 tons [6][33]. - The domestic iron ore output is expected to be 20.85 million tons in June, a decrease of 470,000 tons compared to the previous month. Overall, the global supply in June is expected to increase by about 2.48 million tons month - on - month [6][36][37]. 3.3 Demand - side - Domestically, according to the Steel Union's statistics, the estimated blast furnace hot metal output in June is 73.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons compared to the previous month, which translates to a decrease of about 3.93 million tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore [7][17][23]. - Overseas, except for China, the daily average pig iron output is generally stable. The estimated pig iron output in June will increase by about 225,000 tons compared to the previous month, which translates to an increase of about 370,000 tons in the demand for 61% grade iron ore. Globally, the demand for 61% grade iron ore in June will decrease by about 3.56 million tons [7][20][23]. 3.4 Inventory - At the end of May, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 139 million tons, a decrease of 435 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to accumulate in June [38]. - Steel mills mostly replenish inventory as needed. The inventory fluctuates within a narrow range, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio continues to weaken [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market this month was dominated by the unexpected outcome of the China - US tariff negotiation and the judicial discussion on reciprocal tariffs. After the ebb of risk - aversion sentiment, the gold price fluctuated significantly, showing a pattern of "high - opening, low - closing, and then oscillating". The global economy faces downward pressure, with complex tariff prospects and obvious policy divergence between Europe and the US [2]. - In April, China's economic data was quite divided. Consumption and industrial data were acceptable, but investment growth slowed down. The real estate market did not stop declining, and the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%. The new export orders dropped sharply to 44.7%, reflecting the impact of US tariffs. Credit demand was insufficient, and the M1 year - on - year growth was only 1.5%. Although the policy side increased stimulus, the real estate sales and land market remained sluggish, and there was still much room for China's economic recovery [2]. - In the short term, gold was impacted by the ebb of risk - aversion, with a decrease in the proportion of non - commercial long positions in COMEX and a reduction in ETF funds. However, the long - term supporting factors remain unchanged: central bank gold purchases, the weakening of the US dollar credit, and the stagflation risk still constitute strategic allocation value. For silver, the supply - demand tight balance continues, but in the short term, its industrial and financial attributes have not yet resonated. The resilience of industrial demand supports the price, and it continues to fluctuate widely [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Asset Price Deduction of the US Reciprocal Tariff Logic - The capital market was affected by factors such as the repeated tariff negotiations, global capital disturbances, and China's unexpected loose policies. Interest rates declined, the US dollar fluctuated, and the RMB appreciated. The China - US interest rate spread oscillated this month. A - shares soared and then oscillated, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared and then declined [8][9]. - The probability of recession in US data decreased, and US Treasury yields increased. Different countries' bond yields were affected by various factors such as debt expansion, inflation, and policy uncertainty. The core logic is that countries are generally affected by debt expansion and policy uncertainty, but the driving factors are different [11][13]. - Affected by factors such as over - supply and the China - US trade war, China's domestic commodity market generally declined this week, especially the black - chain commodities. Precious metals bottomed out and oscillated, and the short - term trading of non - ferrous metals was weak, but they were generally supported [17]. 3.2 US Inflation Stabilizes, and Central Banks of Many Countries Continue to Cut Interest Rates - In April 2025, the US CPI year - on - year increase was 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, and the month - on - month increase was 0.2%, slightly lower than market expectations. The PPI year - on - year increase was 2.4%, the slowest in three consecutive months, and the month - on - month decrease was 0.5%, the largest monthly decline in five years [21][24]. - The US employment market showed a mild slowdown but still had resilience. In April, non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000, better than expected, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. However, consumer confidence was at a low level, and the retail sales growth in April was weak [27][31]. - Inflation rates in different countries showed different trends. For example, France's inflation rate was stable at 0.8% in April, the lowest since 2021; the UK's CPI year - on - year increase slowed down to 2.6% [35]. - The manufacturing and service industries in the US, Europe, and Japan showed different trends. The manufacturing PMI in the US and the eurozone showed a differentiated trend, and the service industry PMI in the US and the eurozone declined, indicating a weakening of the economic recovery momentum [41][44]. - The balance sheets of the central banks of the US, Japan, and Europe showed a differentiated trend. The Fed continued to shrink its balance sheet, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet was passively reduced, and the European Central Bank maintained a high - level balance sheet [49]. - Central banks of different countries had different interest - rate policies. The US Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged in May, while the eurozone, the UK, Canada, etc. cut interest rates, and Brazil raised interest rates [50]. 3.3 China's Data Raises Many Concerns, Focus on Policy Effects - In April, China's industrial added - value growth rate remained high, with equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing as the core driving forces. However, there were obvious regional and industrial differences, and some traditional industries had weak growth [54]. - In April, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate declined slightly, with a slight decline in general infrastructure investment and a decrease in manufacturing investment. Real estate investment continued to decline, with a significant decrease in new construction and completion areas, and a slight narrowing of the decline in sales area [58][61]. - In April, China's consumer market continued a mild recovery trend, with the total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.1% year - on - year. However, the demand for durable consumer goods was significantly differentiated [63]. - In April, China's credit data was at a low level in recent years. New RMB loans decreased year - on - year, and corporate and household loans were weak. However, government special bonds supported the increase in social financing scale [66][75]. - In April, China's export data showed resilience, with a year - on - year increase of 9.3% in exports (in RMB). The "rush for re - export" effect was an important factor supporting the export performance. Import data showed a complex feature of "quantity - price differentiation" [86][92]. - In April, China's PMI declined. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, and large, medium, and small - sized enterprises were all in the contraction range. The non - manufacturing business activity index also declined slightly [95]. - In May 2025, China's monetary policy was unexpected. The central bank announced 3 major categories and 10 policies, including providing medium - and long - term liquidity through reserve requirement ratio cuts, lowering policy interest rates, and improving existing and creating new re - loan tools [99]. 3.4 The Impact of Tariff Negotiations and Prospects, Gold Price Bottoms out and Oscillates - Due to the uncertainty of the prospects of reciprocal tariffs, the gold price fluctuated significantly this month. The non - commercial long - position ratio of COMEX gold decreased, and the ETF fund holdings decreased. The US dollar depreciated, and the decline in the US dollar index weakened the suppression of the gold price [112][115][123]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the global physical gold ETF had a net inflow of 226 tons, and the total holdings increased to 3,445 tons. China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves for 6 months [124][125]. - In 2025, the silver market continued to be in a "tight balance". The supply - demand gap was expected to narrow by 21% compared with 2024. Industrial demand remained resilient, but consumer demand declined [126]. - In the short term, the shock of gold was mainly due to the demand for risk - aversion, and silver was driven by gold but was limited by the lack of resonance between its industrial and financial attributes. In the long term, central bank gold purchases, the weakening of the US dollar credit, and the stagflation risk still supported the gold price [128][129].