Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long position recommended [1] - Silver: Long position recommended [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound and then decline [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish in September [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - Overall, the report analyzes various non - ferrous metals and new energy metals, suggesting different investment strategies based on their respective fundamentals, market conditions, and macro - economic factors. For example, gold and silver are expected to rise due to interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks; copper is favored in the long - term due to supply shortages and increasing demand; while zinc is considered a short - position option as supply increases and demand weakens [1][3][7]. Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold price center has shifted upwards, and silver has broken through historical highs [2] - **Basic Logic**: US inflation has rebounded (July core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year), the Fed may cut interest rates, and there are geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, it's difficult for gold to break through the range, but in the long term, it may enter a long - bull market [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, there is support around 770, and pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 803. For silver, pay attention to the effectiveness of the breakthrough. In the long run, the upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4] Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper has strengthened in a volatile manner [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, processing fees are deeply inverted. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Demand is expected to pick up during the peak season, and there are contradictions between short - term inventory accumulation and long - term demand growth [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions, and new investors can buy on dips. In the long term, be optimistic about copper. Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 78,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper in the range of 9,800 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc's rebound is under pressure [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Demand is weak during the off - season, and domestic inventory has increased [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, and in the long term, sell on rallies. Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of 22,000 - 22,600 yuan/ton, and LME zinc in the range of 2,750 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum price rebound is under pressure, and alumina is relatively weak [13] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are strong. Aluminum production has increased slightly, and inventory has accumulated. Alumina supply is expected to be loose in the short term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprises' operating rates. The main operating range is 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel price rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel is also under pressure [17] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro sentiment has weakened. The nickel industry's supply and demand are divided, with refined nickel supply in surplus and nickel sulfate in short supply. Stainless steel inventory decline has slowed down, and the off - season pressure remains [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [19] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, with the closing gain narrowing [21] - **Industrial Logic**: A mine in Jiangxi has renewed its mining license, but the situation of other mines is uncertain. Production is stable, demand is picking up, and total inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for the price to stabilize in the range of 76,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton [23]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In August, the fundamentals of PVC were bearish, with social inventories increasing to the same level as the previous year. The market is pessimistic about future exports due to India's higher - than - expected anti - dumping duties. In September, although the fundamentals are weak, the absolute price is low, and the room for further decline is limited. Key factors to watch include持仓量, exports, and inventories. The short - term trend is weakly volatile, and specific trading strategies are proposed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Next Month's Outlook - **Position Volume**: PVC, as a traditional short - allocation variety, has seen its 01 contract's position volume approaching 1.2 million lots again. If there are positive news from the real estate or coking coal sectors, a phased rebound may occur due to short - covering [3]. - **Exports**: From January to July 2025, PVC exports increased by 57% year - on - year, and the export dependence rose to 19%. With the anti - dumping duties and BIS certification policies announced, the focus is on the implementation rhythm of anti - dumping duties [3]. - **Inventories**: The inventory structure of the upstream and mid - stream is differentiated. Enterprise inventories are not under high pressure, so spot prices are relatively resistant to decline. Social inventories are continuously increasing. If there is a rush to export in September and the peak domestic demand season arrives, the inflection point of social inventory reduction may appear [3]. 3.2 Operation Strategy - In the short term, the market is weakly volatile. Short positions should be gradually closed at low prices. For the V2601 contract, the focus range is [4750, 5150]. - The futures price is higher than the spot price. Industrial players should conduct hedging at high prices [4]. 3.3 Market Review - In August, PVC showed a unilateral downward trend. The V2601 contract fluctuated between 4887 and 5221, with an amplitude of 334 points. The opening price was 5167 yuan/ton (down 9 points or 0.17% from the end of last month), and the closing price was 4907 yuan/ton (down 134 points from the previous month's closing price). The market was affected by macro news and the release of new production capacity, as well as India's anti - dumping duties [7]. - The position volume of the main contract approached 1.2 million lots again, indicating intense capital games [8][10]. - As of August 28, the V01 Changzhou basis was - 246 yuan/ton, and the warrant volume was increasing, indicating strong willingness of industrial players to sell and hedge at high prices [13]. - As of August 28, the V9 - 1 spread was - 151 yuan/ton, and the V3 - 5 spread was - 232 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread continued the inter - month reverse spread, and the 3 - 5 spread strengthened month - on - month [16]. 3.4 Supply - The capacity utilization rate has remained above 75% since the beginning of the year, and the cumulative output from week 1 to 34 increased by 4.4% year - on - year. From July to September, new production capacity of 1.1 million tons was put into operation. Although the new maintenance in September is slightly greater than the restart volume, the supply side is still under pressure [19]. - In September, only Zhongtai, Taizhou Liancheng, and Shaanxi Beiyuan with a total capacity of 2.25 million tons have maintenance plans, while the restart of 800,000 tons of capacity by Haipinglevel and Formosa Plastics is planned, so the positive impact of maintenance is limited [20]. 3.5 Demand - **Real Estate**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas were - 19.4%, - 9.2%, - 16.5%, and - 4% respectively. The decline in new construction area narrowed, while the declines in construction, completion, and sales areas widened. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 5.85% [23]. - **Domestic and Foreign Demand**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 11.87 million tons (down 2.8% year - on - year), indicating weak domestic demand. Exports were 2.29 million tons (up 830,000 tons or 57% year - on - year). In July, exports were 330,000 tons (up 113% year - on - year). However, due to India's anti - dumping duties, future exports to India may decline [26]. 3.6 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of Thursday, enterprise inventory was 345,000 tons (up 19% year - on - year), with 10 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction. Since July, enterprises have increased pre - sales, and the inventory has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past four years [29]. - **Social Inventory**: As of Thursday, large and small sample social inventories were 450,000 tons and 720,000 tons respectively. Social inventories have increased to the same level as the previous year, and if the current inventory increase rate continues, it is expected to reach a record high at the end of September [32]. 3.7 Profit From July, due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, the profits of chlor - alkali enterprises have been significantly repaired. However, considering the future supply - demand pattern, there is still room for profit compression for upstream enterprises [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Global Soybean Market**: The US Department of Agriculture's August report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area, leading to a decrease in the new - crop US soybean production both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the decline is limited and difficult to raise the price center. South American old - crop soybeans had a good harvest, and the new - crop Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase year - on - year. The global soybean supply situation is optimistic, but the Sino - US trade tariff issue provides cost support for domestic soybean meal [4]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Market**: In the short term, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate until the end of September. The agreement to import soybean meal from Argentina restricts the speculation space for far - month contracts. The feed consumption of downstream livestock and poultry has different trends, and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal stimulates the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal. The short - term fundamentals are slightly bullish, but the subsequent harvest pressure may put pressure on prices. Soybean meal is expected to maintain a wide - range market, and caution is needed when going long [5]. - **Global Rapeseed Market**: The new - season global rapeseed production is recovering, with a significant increase in Canada's rapeseed production. The harvest pressure of new - season rapeseed is gradually emerging [7]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal Market**: The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, but Australian rapeseed may be a supplement. The high port granular rapeseed meal inventory and low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal suppress the price. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weak in the short term [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance in August - **Soybean Meal**: It first rose and then fell. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed and the unexpected reduction in US soybean planting area pushed up the price, but then it fell back due to sufficient supply and other factors [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It also first rose and then fell. The anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed pushed up the price, but then it declined due to high inventory and other factors [13]. 2. US Soybean Supply and Demand - **2025/26 New - Crop**: The planting area was unexpectedly reduced by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the production was reduced by 43 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The export volume was reduced by 40 million bushels to 1.705 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was reduced by 20 million bushels to 290 million bushels [14]. 3. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - **Brazil**: The 8 - month report maintained the estimates of old and new - crop data in July. The export premium of Brazilian soybeans to China is expected to remain firm [15]. - **Argentina**: In the 2024/25 season, the production was increased by 1 million tons to 50.9 million tons, and in the 2025/26 season, the export volume was increased by 800,000 tons to 5.8 million tons [18]. 4. Crop Progress - **US Soybeans**: As of August 24, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate was 69%, the pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4% [20]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2024/25 production is expected to reach 169.657 million tons, with an increase of 14.8% year - on - year, and the 2025/26 production is expected to reach 176.5 million tons, with an increase of 3% year - on - year [21][22]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The 2024/25 production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, with an upward revision of 2% [23]. 5. Global Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Global**: The 8 - month USDA report showed that the global rapeseed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [27]. - **Canada**: The production in 2025/26 is expected to be 19.25 million tons, with a slight increase year - on - year [28]. - **EU**: The production in 2025/26 is expected to be 18.539 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.09% [29]. 6. Canadian Rapeseed Situation - **Weather and Exports**: In Manitoba, there was sporadic rainfall and strong convective weather. As of August 17, the export volume decreased to 90,800 tons, and the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [41]. - **Anti - Dumping**: Since August 14, 2025, the margin ratio for Canadian companies has been 75.8% [42]. 7. Domestic Market Conditions - **Soybean Imports**: In July 2025, China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 598,000 tons from June and an increase of 1.813 million tons from July 2024 [45]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of August 22, the national port soybean inventory was 8.898 million tons, and the national oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons [48][53]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Imports**: In July 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 176,000 tons, and the low - erucic - acid rapeseed oil cake import volume was 154,628.215 tons [59][62]. - **Feed Consumption**: In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [75]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming**: The profit of pig farming declined in August, the profit of laying - hen farming fluctuated slightly, and the profit of white - feather broiler farming remained profitable [85][88].

Report Title - 20250829 Zhonghui Futures Monthly Report on Live Pigs: Gradual Reduction of Reproductive Sows Benefits Far - Month Contracts, Focus on Peak Season Performance [1] Core View - In the short - term, there is supply pressure, but demand is expected to improve marginally in the next 1 - 2 months. The spot and near - month contracts face high weight reduction and production capacity realization pressure, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts may rise as production capacity is gradually reduced, and investors can consider buying at low prices or using reverse spread strategies. The reference range for the main contract is [13700, 14500] [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Spot Performance - In August, the national average live pig price decreased by 0.44 yuan to 13.82 yuan/kg. Prices in Henan, Jiangsu, Hunan, Chongqing, and Sichuan all declined [3][15] - The average spot price of culled sows in sample breeding enterprises decreased by 0.01 yuan to 9.86 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 10.96 yuan to 1627.14 yuan/head. The market for culled sows continued to see a slight increase in volume [3][17] - The average出栏 price of 7kg piglets decreased by 80.47 yuan to 364.29 yuan/head, and the average出栏 price of 15kg piglets decreased by 123.96 yuan to 403.75 yuan/head [3][20] 2. Logic and Outlook - **Logic**: In August, the planned出栏 volume of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a 5.26% increase. The proportion of large pigs出栏 remained high. From January to July 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased, indicating potential growth in出栏 volume in the second half of the year. High supply pressure is expected to continue until May 2026. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising continued to weaken, which is beneficial for the reduction of far - month production capacity. Demand is expected to improve marginally in the next 1 - 2 months [4] - **Outlook**: The spot and near - month contracts face high weight reduction and production capacity realization pressure, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts may rise as production capacity is gradually reduced, and investors can consider buying at low prices or using reverse spread strategies [5] 3. Key Data - **Spot Price**: Various prices such as live pigs, sows, and piglets showed a downward trend in August [3][6] - **Short - term Supply**: The official inventory at the end of the second quarter was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads. The planned出栏 volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August increased. The average出栏 weight of live pigs increased, while the average weight after slaughter of white - striped pigs decreased. The standard - fat price difference expanded, and the proportion of different weight - range inventories changed [6][23][25] - **Medium - term Supply**: In July, the national piglet survival rate decreased slightly, the number of piglet births increased, and piglet feed sales decreased slightly. The market supply of live pigs is expected to increase in Q4 2025 [6][29] - **Long - term Supply**: In July, the increase in reproductive sows in large - scale breeding enterprises was basically zero, the number of culled reproductive sows increased, and the official number of reproductive sows decreased [6][31] - **Demand**: In August, terminal consumption showed obvious off - season characteristics at first and then recovered. The slaughtering rate, daily slaughter volume, and frozen product storage rate changed slightly, while the fresh - sales rate decreased slightly [6][33] - **Cost**: In August, the corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased. The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding and self - raising decreased [39][41] - **Profit**: In August, due to increased supply and limited demand recovery, the breeding profit decreased. The self - breeding and self - raising profit turned negative, and the loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased [43] - **Price Ratio**: In late August, the national average pig - grain price ratio fell below 6:1, entering the third - level warning range. The state plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases, which is beneficial for short - term market sentiment [45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, the oil price center declined, with WTI falling below the strong support level of $65. In September, as the US crude oil consumption peak season ends, the demand - side support for oil prices will gradually weaken. Along with OPEC's continued production increase, the pressure of supply surplus is expected to rise, and the oil price center is likely to continue to decline. The key price level to watch is $60, which is close to the break - even point of new US shale oil wells. The US crude oil production will be a major variable on the supply side. Potential positives in September include the high probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates and OPEC possibly suspending additional production increases; potential negatives mainly concern the situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If the conflict ends, oil prices may drop significantly. The recommended monitoring ranges are WTI [55, 65] and SC [420, 500] [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与展望 - **Crude Oil Market Review and Outlook**: In August, the oil price center moved down. In September, demand support will weaken, supply surplus pressure will increase, and the oil price center is expected to continue to decline. Key price to watch is $60, and the US crude oil production is a major supply - side variable. Potential positives and negatives exist, and the monitoring ranges are given [9]. 3.2宏观经济 - **IMF's Economic Growth Forecast**: On July 29, the IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2% to 3% due to China's better - than - expected economic growth and lower - than - expected Sino - US tariff levels [22]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: Fed Chair Powell indicated that the risk of the employment market may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in September is 8.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.1%. For October, the probability of maintaining the rate is 4.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 46.8% [9]. 3.3供需和库存 - **Supply**: In July 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 262,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production rose by 170,000 barrels per day to 9.526 million barrels per day, Iraq's decreased by 51,000 barrels per day to 3.902 million barrels per day, and the UAE's increased by 109,000 barrels per day to 3.169 million barrels per day. As of the week ending August 22, US crude oil production was 13.44 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day [10][35][40]. - **Demand**: In July 2025, EIA, OPEC, and IEA monthly reports forecasted the global crude oil demand in 2025 to be 103.54 million, 105.13 million, and 103.74 million barrels per day respectively, with year - on - year increases of 80,000, 129,000, and 70,000 barrels per day compared to 2024. As of the week ending August 22, domestic crude oil processing volume was 14.4842 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,700 tons. In July, crude oil imports were 47.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.50%, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 327.02 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.89% [10][44][57]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending August 22, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserves increased by 800,000 barrels to 404.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels. China's port inventory increased to 28.737 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory increased to 2.52 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons [10][65][71]. 3.4价差和持仓 - **Price Spreads**: WTI's monthly spread has fallen to a low level. As of August 28, WTI M1 - M2 was $0.53 per barrel, and M1 - M6 was $1.58 per barrel. The domestic monthly spread has turned negative. The refined oil cracking spread in the US has declined, while the domestic refined oil cracking spread has remained stable [84][87][89]. - **Positions**: Information on WTI and Brent positions is mentioned, and the SC warehouse receipt volume and total positions have increased [91][94][96]. 3.5总结 - **Strategies**: Different investment strategies are recommended, including futures unilateral, options unilateral, options strategies, and hedging strategies, with corresponding recommended intensities [101].

20250829棉系月报： 短期边际利空有限 关注开秤后多空节奏转换 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年8月29日 周度综述：摘要 | 因素 | 性质 | 观点概览 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、中国央行15日发布的2025年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告(下称"报告")表示，把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币政策 的重要考量,推动物价保持在合理水平。 | | 宏观 | 中性偏多 | | | | | 2、美联储主席鲍威尔在2日一场备受关注的演讲中为降息敬开大门,以在美国总统特朗普加大对央行施压之际平衡经济所面 | | | | 临的风险。 | | | | 国际方面,近期美国棉区干旱情况缓解有限,优良率小幅走弱。巴西新棉收获进度为五年同期最慢,整体进度约五成在右, | | | | 国内新季种植上，新棉进入吐絮期，目前新疆产区温度相对较好，疆内无明显阴雨天气负面影响、棉灰反馈潮产预期强烈。 | | 供应 | 中性 | 部分地区反馈9月中下旬新棉将提前上市。新作预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Silicon Manganese**: Supply and demand are becoming more balanced, with weekly production increasing and the operating rate in Yunnan reaching a five - year high. Demand has some resilience. Manganese ore prices are weak and stable, while coal and coke are strong, providing some cost support. In the short term, it may have a weak rebound following market sentiment, and short - selling or waiting is advisable. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6150] [3][4]. - **Silicon Iron**: The current fundamentals are becoming looser, and the rising raw material prices at the cost end temporarily support the silicon iron price. The inventory pressure has been released this month, and the warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high, suppressing the upward space of the spot price in the short term. Seasonally, there is a high probability of decline in September and October, and mid - term short - selling opportunities during the correction can be considered. The reference range for the main contract is [5400, 6000] [46][47]. 3. Summary by Directory Silicon Manganese - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the manganese - silicon main contract was 5898 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.28% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5800 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 98 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 25, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan from the beginning of the month), 5780 yuan/ton in Guangxi (down 20 yuan from the beginning of the month), and 5800 yuan/ton in Jiangsu (down 150 yuan from the beginning of the month) [9]. - **Supply**: The silicon - manganese output in July totaled 81.96 million tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 91 - 92 million tons [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of molten iron in August remained above 2.4 million tons, but the output of rebar did not increase significantly and remained at a low level compared to the same period. The procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy by a landmark steel mill in August was 6200 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 16,100 tons, higher than the same period last year [3]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 8000 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 68,900, a decrease of 8900 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) decreased to 353,900 tons, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the beginning of the month [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the north is about 5850 yuan/ton, and 6300 yuan/ton in the south. Currently, most production areas are in a loss state. Other costs: Coke has started the eighth round of price increases, and the price will remain strong in the short term. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have changed little [4]. - **Manganese Ore Price**: The port manganese ore price fluctuated weakly. As of August 25, the price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 1 yuan from the beginning of the month), CML Australian lumps were 41.5 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.5 yuan from the beginning of the month), and South32 South African semi - carbonate was 34.2 yuan/ton - degree (down 1.3 yuan from the beginning of the month) [23]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In July 2025, China's total manganese ore import volume was 2.744 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 20.0%. Among them, the import volume of South African manganese ore was 1.365 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the import volume of Australian ore was 407,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81.4% and a year - on - year increase of 382.2%; the import volume of Gabonese manganese ore was 486,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 154.8% and a year - on - year increase of 44.0% [28]. Silicon Iron - **Market Review**: In August, the futures price fluctuated weakly, with the price center continuously moving down. As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the silicon - iron main contract was 5680 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 2.64% from the beginning of the month; the spot price in Jiangsu was 5600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 80 yuan/ton [50]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in the main production areas decreased by 150 - 250 yuan/ton this month [51]. - **Supply**: The silicon - iron output in July totaled 446,700 tons, and the total output in August is expected to be 490,000 - 500,000 tons [53]. - **Demand - Steelmaking**: As of August 22, the weekly demand for silicon iron was 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38 tons. In July 2025, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1% [56]. - **Demand - Non - steel**: In July, the output of magnesium ingots totaled 73,374 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1664 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.46%; in July 2025, China's silicon - iron export volume totaled 35,946 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1224 tons; from January to July, the cumulative silicon - iron export volume was 235,994 tons, a decrease of 12,239 tons (a decline of 4.9%) compared to the same period last year [62]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 62,100 tons, a decrease of 3500 tons from the beginning of the month; as of August 25, the total number of warehouse receipts was 20,200, a decrease of 1800 from the beginning of the month; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) totaled 109,700 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons from the beginning of the month [46]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in the production areas has increased slightly, and most of the industry is in a loss state. Currently, the production cost in Ningxia is 5388 yuan/ton (the lowest), and the spot profit is - 88 yuan/ton; the production cost in Gansu is 5609 yuan/ton (the highest), and the spot profit is about - 259 yuan/ton [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In July, the black series was traded around policies such as "anti-involution" and "capacity reduction", with coking coal being the representative variety. In early August, this trading logic continued. However, as the exchange took measures to cool down the market and there was no significant tightening change at the industrial level, the market gradually switched to the industrial logic. In August, steel products were relatively weak in the black sector and led the decline [3]. - From the supply-demand perspective, downstream demand remains weak, but steel mills still have production enthusiasm supported by positive profits. The supply-demand contradiction may further intensify in the later stage, and it may be necessary for steel mills to enter the loss range to force a decline in production to relieve the contradiction. Policy-wise, after the introduction of the steel industry's stable growth policy by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the policy vacuum period will follow, and the driving force from macro and industry policies will come to an end. In terms of the market, the macro narrative of the black series will tend to be dull later, and there is still room for a correction in the market under the supply-demand logic [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In August, the market switched from the "anti-involution" logic to the industrial logic. In the first half of the month, macro sentiment and policy expectations still strongly supported the market, especially for coking coal, which returned to the late-July high. However, rebar showed obvious weakness and had a weak rebound. Later, market sentiment gradually cooled, and steel futures continued to weaken under the pressure of the weak industrial reality. The rapid increase in rebar warehouse receipts also put pressure on the market. At the end of the month, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and others issued a stable growth policy for the steel industry, but the content was of limited positive effect, and the market rose briefly and then declined again [7]. - In August, the main contract of rebar fell 3%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.9%, iron ore rose 4.3%, coke fell 0.4%, and coking coal rose 1.3% [7]. Currency and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally maintained an upward trend, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to widen. - In July, the negative increment of social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock continued to rise, but the year-on-year difference between social financing and M2 slightly continued to decline [10]. Price Index - In July, the CPI was 0, down 0.1% from June; the PPI was -3.6, unchanged from the previous month, and the deflationary environment remained unchanged. - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 month-on-month, lower than market expectations [13]. Steel Monthly Data - From January to July, the crude steel output decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a state of production reduction. - The year-on-year decline in pig iron output was 1.3%, significantly lower than that of crude steel, indicating a decrease in the scrap addition ratio in the converter process. - The increase in steel exports was significant. From January to July, steel exports increased by 6.75 million tons, and billet exports increased by 5.64 million tons [14]. Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of August 29, 2025, the total output of the five major steel products was 884,610 tons, an increase of 6,550 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.74%. The total consumption was 858,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.03%. The total inventory was 1.468 million tons, an increase of 26,840 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.08% [15]. Steel Production - Last year, from July to September, steel production decreased significantly due to the loss of blast furnace profits. However, since this year, steel mills have had good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the output of the five major steel products has remained stable. Recently, affected by the military parade, more blast furnaces in some areas have been under maintenance, which may have a certain impact on production in the short term [18]. - Currently, blast furnace profits have significantly declined compared to the previous period. The single-ton profit of rebar has dropped from the previous 200 - 300 yuan to 100 - 200 yuan, and the profit of hot-rolled coil is generally higher than that of rebar. The profit of electric furnaces improved temporarily during the previous steel price increase, but recently the profit has declined again, and the profit at off-peak electricity has fallen back to near the break-even point [19]. Steel Demand - The demand side is relatively dull, and the trading volume of construction steel has remained at the 100,000 - ton level without improvement [40]. - From January to July, the newly started area of real estate decreased by 19.5%, with a 15% decrease in July and a 9% decrease in June. From January to July, land purchase fees decreased by 8.9%, and the construction area decreased by 9.2%. Data shows that the demand for housing construction is still difficult to improve significantly in the later stage [44]. - The cumulative year-on-year decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 4.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the land transaction area in 100 cities was 8.1% [47]. - In July, the cement delivery volume was relatively stable but lower than the same period last year. The concrete delivery volume remained stable, similar to the same period last year [50]. - From January to July, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate decreasing by 1.2% compared to January - June. From January to July, infrastructure investment increased by 7.3%, with the growth rate decreasing by 1.6% compared to January - June. The growth rate of manufacturing investment also declined month-on-month [53]. - From January to July, the country issued 2.78 trillion yuan of new special bonds, with 616.9 billion yuan issued in July. It is expected to issue 1.43 trillion yuan in the third quarter, with an annual target of 4.5 trillion yuan [56]. - The consumption of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate was the highest in the same period [58]. - From January to July, automobile sales reached 18.27 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Among them, exports were 4.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%; domestic sales were 14.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to July, air - conditioner production increased by 5.1% year-on-year, refrigerator production increased by 0.9%, and washing - machine production increased by 9.4%. The export of household appliances still maintained positive growth. From January to June, refrigerator exports increased by 2% year-on-year, air - conditioner exports increased by 4.1%, and washing - machine exports increased by 5.3% [62]. - As domestic steel prices have declined, the price difference between domestic and foreign steel products has recently widened again [65]. Steel Inventory - In August, the rebar basis maintained a strong trend. Currently, the basis of the October contract exceeds 150, at a relatively high level in the same period. However, even though the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, rebar warehouse receipts are still increasing rapidly, indicating great pressure on spot sales [79]. - The hot - rolled coil basis is relatively stable. The basis of the October contract is also at a relatively high level in the same period, and the basis of the January contract is neutral [83]. - The rebar 10 - 1 spread operated at a low level in August. The weakness of the spot market and a large number of warehouse receipts put pressure on the near - month contract, but the current spread is already at the lowest level in recent years in the same period, and the room for further decline is limited [89]. - The hot - rolled coil 10 - 1 spread has strengthened and has shown a contango structure [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the peak seasons of “Golden September and Silver October” and the increasing probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, copper prices are expected to rise due to the resonance of macro - and micro - factors, but there is also a risk of a short - term decline if expectations are not met. In the long term, the report is bullish on copper [6]. - Overall, the resilience of US macro data, Trump's active pressure, and the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut in September have led to a weaker US dollar and a rebound in copper prices. In China, there is a macro - policy vacuum period, and the A - share bull market has siphoned funds from the commodity market. Fundamentally, supply disruptions in copper ore and the recovery of demand during the peak season, along with tight domestic copper social inventories, suggest that copper prices will fluctuate upward. In the short term, it is recommended to hold existing long copper positions and wait for opportunities to go long on dips. Enterprises should wait for high - price opportunities to conduct sell - hedging. In the long term, copper is favored due to its status as a strategic resource in the China - US game and as a substitute for precious metals, along with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6]. Summary of Each Section 1. Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Economic Indicators and Fed Policy**: The market is waiting for US inflation and employment data. The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, but it may be affected by inflation. Although the July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing and previous data was revised downward, the number of unemployment benefit claimants has recently declined. The market expects the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data to remain at a 2.6% increase. If the data is mild, the Fed may focus more on employment pressure; otherwise, the probability of a September rate cut may be reduced. Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, and Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium have increased the expectation of a September rate cut, with traders' probability bets exceeding 80%. The US dollar index has weakened, and copper prices have shown an upward trend [10]. - **Domestic Macroeconomic Situation**: In August, the LPR remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The Fed's delay in cutting interest rates restricts China's monetary policy space. The Sino - US interest rate spread has slightly narrowed. There is a short - term domestic policy vacuum period. Before the September 3 military parade, the A - share market was booming, siphoning funds from the commodity market. After the parade, market sentiment may cool down, and there is a risk of a decline in copper prices [13]. 2. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: Supply disruptions have occurred. Codelco's copper production is expected to decrease by 33,000 metric tons in 2025 due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Zambia's copper production in the second quarter decreased, and Indonesia's copper concentrate exports are approaching the quota. China's copper concentrate imports in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but port inventories are significantly lower than the historical average. The global production and capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates have declined. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is still deeply inverted [34]. - **Scrap Copper**: The scrap copper market has a tight supply. The price difference between refined and scrap copper has a narrow fluctuation, weakening the substitution effect of scrap copper and stimulating refined copper consumption. Domestic scrap copper supply has increased in the first half of the year, while imported scrap copper has decreased slightly. The production of blister copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic and imported blister copper are at historical lows [38]. - **Refined Copper**: In July, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that production will decline in August and September due to smelter maintenance. The supply gap of refined copper in 2025 has narrowed, showing a tight balance. The import of refined copper has increased in July, and the import window has opened recently. The ICSG reported a supply surplus in the global copper market from January to June 2025, but the surplus has narrowed [43]. - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Processing Enterprises**: From July to August, affected by high temperatures and floods, downstream copper processing enterprises were in a traditional off - season, with lower operating rates. The operating rates of most copper product enterprises decreased in July, except for the copper foil industry [49]. - **Terminal Demand**: The demand for electricity and new energy vehicles has shown resilience. From January to July, power grid investment increased year - on - year, and new photovoltaic installations performed well. The real estate market is still in a difficult situation. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly year - on - year. The performance of household appliances is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [54]. 3. Summary and Outlook - **Macro - level**: The release of US inflation and employment data is imminent. Although the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, there is a risk of reversals. The market sentiment is cautious. In China, there is a macro - policy vacuum period, and the LPR remains unchanged. After the military parade in early September, market sentiment may decline, and attention should be paid to domestic and international macro - data [74]. - **Fundamental - level**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the processing fee TC is deeply inverted. Although China's electrolytic copper production increased in July, it may decline in August and September due to smelter maintenance. With the approaching peak seasons and inventory replenishment, demand is expected to recover. Globally, copper inventories have increased monthly, but domestic copper social inventories are low. The short - term contradiction in the copper market is the weak reality of inventory accumulation after the US copper tariff TACO versus the strong expectation of inventory depletion during the peak season. The medium - term contradiction lies in the interference of copper concentrates and the inverted TC versus the high elasticity of refined copper supply. The long - term contradiction is the global economic concerns caused by China - US confrontation versus the booming demand for green copper in the power and new energy sectors [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the trading focus in the commodity market will gradually shift back to the industry, with a greater emphasis on fundamental factors. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to decline in September after reaching a record high in August, while the demand from the terminal new - energy vehicle market and the energy storage market is increasing. As a result, the total inventory is likely to continue to decrease, and the price of the lithium carbonate main contract has room for an upward movement after stabilizing [77]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In July, China's economic data showed signs of weakness. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.7% (previous value: 6.8%), and the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.7% (previous value: 4.8%). The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to July was 1.6% (previous value: 2.8%), and the year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0% (previous value: - 11.2%). The year - on - year growth rate of general infrastructure investment was 7.3% (previous value: 8.9%), and the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 6.2% (previous value: 7.5%). The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July was - 1.5% (previous value: - 4.3%). The Fed Chairman's stance was dovish, and the market expected an over 80% probability of an interest - rate cut in September, betting on two interest - rate cuts within the year [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - The estimated output in August was around 80,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. Although the capacity utilization rate increased due to the rising enthusiasm of external - procurement enterprises to lock in processing profits through the futures market, the output of mica decreased due to the shutdown of leading manufacturers. In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate in China was 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% [3]. - As of July, the national lithium carbonate production capacity was 2,243,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.42%. The monthly operating rate was 45.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. The output in July was 85,690 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 26% [12]. - As of August 22, the lithium carbonate output was 20,438 tons, a week - on - week increase of 345 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 47.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The output of lithium hydroxide was 4,730 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 32.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 17, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China reached 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in August last year and a 12% increase compared with the same period in the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% compared with the same period in August last year and a 10% increase compared with the same period in the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [4]. - In July, the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in six European countries was 220,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 41%, and the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in the US was 144,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 13% [4]. - In July, the domestic energy storage market had a tender scale of 9.0GW/25.8GWh for energy - storage systems and EPC general contracting tenders including equipment, and there were also 1.73GWh of energy - storage DC - side orders finalized. The average price of 2 - hour energy - storage systems was 0.526 yuan/Wh, a month - on - month decrease of 17.9% [32]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the global smartphone shipments reached 295.2 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In July, the smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month decrease of 13% [33]. 3.4 Inventory - As of August 28, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 590 tons from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 43,336 tons, a decrease of 8,622 tons from the previous month; the inventory of downstream material factories was 52,800 tons, an increase of 8,920 tons from the previous month; and the inventory in other links was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 888 tons from the previous month. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 28,957 tons, an increase of 23,412 tons from the previous month [4]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of August 28, the average industry cost was 68,417 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5,596 yuan/ton. The price of African SC 5% was 680 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 165 US dollars/ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 920 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 146 US dollars/ton; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,330 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton. The profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 13,954 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5,495 yuan/ton [5]. - As of August 22, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 68,417 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,079 yuan, and the industry profit was 13,954 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,498 yuan. The production cost of lithium hydroxide was 69,167 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,006 yuan, and the industry profit was 8,089 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,453 yuan [60][62]. - As of August 22, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 35,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 161 yuan/ton, and the loss was 822 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan/ton [64]. 3.6 Market Price - As of August 27, the LC2511 contract closed at a price with a 14.4% increase compared with the previous month. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.3% compared with the previous month, and the basis changed from a large premium to a discount. The position of the main contract was 347,000 [8]. - The prices of various lithium - battery products showed different degrees of increase or decrease in August. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 13.14%, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.59% [6]. 3.7 Import and Export - In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate in China was 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. The import volume from Chile was 8,584 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.2%. The import volume from Argentina was 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [19]. - In July 2025, the import volume of spodumene in China was 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. The import volume from Australia was 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.2% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [22]. 3.8 Operation Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Buy after a sufficient correction, with a reference range of [75,000, 90,000] [78]. - Hedging strategy: In the long - term, the market is still in an oversupply situation. Production enterprises can conduct hedging on the futures market when the price rebounds according to their own profit levels [78]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [78].