1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level correction, long-term strategic allocation value remains, short-term wait and see [2] - Silver: High-level adjustment, long-term bullish, short-term exit and wait and see, long-term wait for stabilization to go long [2] - Copper: High-level consolidation, long-term bullish, copper long positions to be held with caution [2] - Zinc: Rebound, long-term supply increase and demand decrease, rebound to sell high [2] - Lead: Rebound [2] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [2] - Aluminum: Relatively strong, short-term rise and then fall [2] - Nickel: Stabilize [2] - Industrial silicon: Range operation, short-term weak operation, wait and see [2] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish, wait for callback to buy [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, hold long positions [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various non-ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomics, supply and demand, and geopolitics. In the short term, the prices of some varieties may fluctuate due to market sentiment and short-term events, while in the long term, the supply and demand fundamentals and macro environment will play a decisive role [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Technical selling continues to suppress the gold price, and the center of gravity of gold continues to decline [3] - **Basic Logic**: The US government shutdown, the US debt scale exceeding 38 trillion US dollars, the twists and turns of the Trump-Putin meeting. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for the gold price to stop falling in the short term, and the long-term upward logic remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of 920 for domestic gold. For silver, pay attention to the sentiment rhythm and the effectiveness of the support at 11,000. Long-term positions can continue to be held [5] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stabilizes at a high level and fluctuates narrowly [7] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, domestic copper concentrate imports increase, and the electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink. The downstream is cautious due to high prices, and the domestic social inventory accumulates slightly [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold copper long positions with caution, use trailing stop-loss to protect profits. New long positions wait for the callback to stabilize. For enterprises, producers can sell hedging at high prices, and processors wait for the opportunity to buy hedging. In the long term, be bullish on copper [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc fluctuates and rebounds, standing firm at the 22,000 mark [10] - **Industrial Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, the zinc smelter starts actively, the demand is under pressure, and the overseas LME zinc inventory has a soft squeeze risk [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short-term zinc short positions can gradually take profits, and wait for the rebound to go short again. In the long term, zinc is a short allocation [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price continues to rise, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [13] - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is high, the inventory decreases, and the demand is relatively stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short term, pay attention to the start of downstream processing enterprises, and the main operating range is [20,800 - 21,500] [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounds slightly, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [17] - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas nickel ore supply disturbance weakens, the domestic pure nickel inventory accumulates, and the stainless steel inventory increases. The terminal consumption in the peak season needs further observation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, and the main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 123,000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opens high and goes high, increasing positions and rising more than 1% [21] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, the total inventory has declined for 9 consecutive weeks, the demand is strong, the supply is at a high level, and the terminal demand is booming [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract, with the range of [76,800 - 78,500] [23]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹表需正常回升，产量略降，库存回落，数据整体符合季节性特征。目前表观消费仍 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看多 | 低于去年同期，成交低迷，下游需求疲弱。铁水产量维持高位，总体供给偏高，供需向 | | ★ | | 上驱动力量有限。近期盘面的下跌体现了供需宽松的状态，连续下行后或有短期反弹。 | | | | 热卷表需回升，产量小幅下降，库存继续上升，同期偏高，超出季节性表现。目前铁水 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 产量仍较高，热卷生产利润好于螺纹，后期库存矛盾或进一步发展，表现或相对偏弱。 | | ★ | | | | | | 数据来看，铁水微降，钢厂去库，港口明显累库。但外矿发货高位放量，到货明显缩量。 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 钢企利润快速压缩，静态基本面中性偏弱。下游成材端节后库存压力逐步体现，产业负 | | ★ | | 反馈担忧加重。关注钢厂减产情况，短期矿价震荡偏弱运行。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦企利润近期较稳定，现货生产相对稳定。铁水产量维持高位运行，原料需求较佳。焦 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 炭本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry is "Cautiously Bearish," with only natural gas having a "Cautiously Bullish" rating [1][2][3][5] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, suggesting most face downward pressure due to factors like supply - demand imbalances and cost - side weakness. Natural gas is an exception, with potential price increases due to rising demand [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: Off - season supply surplus is the core driver. There are expectations of easing in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continuous inventory build - up in the US during the consumption off - season, and plans by OPEC+ to expand production in November, increasing supply surplus pressure [1] - Strategy: Partially take profit on short positions, and focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [1][9] LPG - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The cost side (crude oil) is weak, downstream chemical demand is falling, the basis is weakening, supply is relatively sufficient with rising factory inventories, and downstream chemical operating rates are decreasing [1] - Strategy: Lightly short, and focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [14] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - Core View: Bearish Continuation [1] - Main Logic: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, but futures and spot prices remain weak. Imports are expected to increase, new production capacity is coming online, and although it's the demand peak season, restocking motivation is insufficient [1][18] - Strategy: Industries should sell - hedge on price increases, and hold short positions cautiously, focusing on the range of [6800 - 7000] [18] PP (Polypropylene) - Core View: Bearish Consolidation [1] - Main Logic: Short - term supply and demand are both weakening, with increased upstream device maintenance and weak demand at the end of the peak season. Oil - based cost support is insufficient, but PDH profit has improved [1][23] - Strategy: Industries should sell - hedge on price increases, hold short positions cautiously, and focus on the range of [6500 - 6700] [23] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - Core View: Bearish Consolidation [1] - Main Logic: Warehouse receipts have increased significantly, domestic demand is weak due to falling real - estate prices, export growth may not be sustainable under anti - dumping policies, and supply remains abundant [1][27] - Strategy: Given the weak supply - demand situation and low absolute prices, be cautious about short - chasing, and focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] [27] PX (Para - xylene) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: Supply - side domestic and overseas devices have slightly reduced their loads, demand is currently weak but expected to improve. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels, and the cost side (crude oil and naphtha) is under pressure [1][28] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices, and look for opportunities to short on price increases, focusing on the range of [6280 - 6380] [29] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Devices are under planned maintenance, a new device is about to be put into operation, supply - side load is expected to rise. Downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating rates are slightly differentiated, with polyester inventory accumulating. Cost side is under pressure [2][31] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices due to low valuations and processing fees, and look for opportunities to short on price increases in the C - structured term, focusing on the range of [4390 - 4460] [32] MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Domestic devices have increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, terminal consumption has improved slightly but is under pressure. New device production and the resumption of maintenance devices have increased supply, and inventory has slightly accumulated [2][34] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on price rebounds, focusing on the range of [3970 - 4030] [35] Methanol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish, with potential long - term bullish factors [2] - Main Logic: High inventory suppresses spot prices, port basis is still weak. Supply - side domestic device maintenance has increased, and although some Iranian imports are affected, the overall supply pressure in October is still large. Demand has no obvious positive factors [2][37] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [37] Urea - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Supply is relatively abundant, demand is weak domestically but export is relatively good. Inventory is continuously accumulating and at a high level in the past five years, and cost support exists [2][41] - Strategy: The fundamental situation is weak, so hold short positions carefully, and consider lightly going long in the medium - to - long - term [2] Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously Bullish [5] - Main Logic: As the temperature drops, demand is expected to pick up, and the consumption peak season is approaching. Although the supply side is sufficient, demand support is strong [5] Asphalt - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [5] - Main Logic: Cost - side crude oil supply surplus pressure is increasing, and the price center is moving down. Asphalt supply and demand are generally loose [5] Glass - Core View: Bearish Continuation [5] - Main Logic: Real - estate prices are falling, domestic demand is weak, post - holiday factory inventory has increased, and supply is under pressure [5] Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish Continuation [5] - Main Logic: Post - holiday factory inventory has continuously increased, supply is in a loose pattern, and demand is mostly rigid [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Bearish Consolidation**: This view applies to both soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, factors such as the harvest and listing of US soybeans, the potential entry of Argentine soybean meal into the Chinese market, and the lack of strong bullish drivers contribute to this outlook. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new driving factors and the complexity of trade - related factors [1]. - **Short - term Fluctuation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to experience short - term fluctuations. Palm oil is affected by the price competition of US soybean oil and the relatively good export data from Malaysia in the first fifteen days of the month. Soybean oil is influenced by factors like the US government shutdown, the harvest of US soybeans, and the decline in crude oil prices, as well as the high domestic inventory [1]. - **High - level Fluctuation**: Rapeseed oil is forecasted to maintain a high - level fluctuation. This is due to the low operating rate of oil mills, the market's mindset of hoarding and price - holding, and the entry into the consumption peak season, despite the lack of actual trading in the spot market [1]. - **Upward Pressure**: Cotton is under upward pressure. The increase in supply from the harvest of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, along with the high level of unpriced buy orders, restricts the upward movement of cotton prices. In the Chinese market, the continuous harvest of new cotton and the increase in imports also put pressure on the supply side [1]. - **Sell on Rally**: For both red dates and live pigs, the strategy is to sell on rally. For red dates, the expected supply pressure after the new fruit is listed, combined with the potential for short - term speculation, leads to this strategy. For live pigs, the increasing supply pressure in Q4 and the decline in post - festival demand support this approach [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 17, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 988.4 million tons, a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 768.7 million tons, an increase of 2.94 million tons from the previous week. The soybean meal inventory was 97.62 million tons, a decrease of 10.29 million tons from the previous week. The average physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal was 7.93 days, a decrease of 0.41 days from October 10 [3]. - **Analysis**: The supply in the spot market is sufficient, but the oil mills' profit is in a loss state, leading to a stronger willingness to hold prices. The potential entry of Argentine soybean meal into the Chinese market may further fill the supply gap. The poor outlook for Brazil in the next fifteen days has led to a small - scale rebound of soybean meal at a low level. The Sino - US trade tariff provides short - term support around 2800 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of strong bullish drivers, soybean meal is expected to remain in a weak consolidation state [4]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 17, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 0.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons from the previous week. The unfulfilled contracts were 0.98 million tons, a decrease of 0.67 million tons from the previous week [6]. - **Analysis**: The international market sees an expected increase in the production of Canadian rapeseed. In the Chinese market, rapeseed meal is in a state of inventory reduction, but the demand enters the seasonal off - season as the temperature drops. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed indicates that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations will take time, and the bullish impact is limited considering the trade flow of Australian rapeseed. Due to the lack of new driving factors, it follows the trend of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of October 17, 2025, the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 57.57 million tons, an increase of 2.81 million tons from the previous week. The export data from different institutions in Malaysia in the first fifteen days of October showed an increase compared to the same period last month [9]. - **Analysis**: The price competition of US soybean oil and the good export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first fifteen days of the month create a situation of mixed bullish and bearish factors. Palm oil is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation, and short - term long positions can be considered when the price stabilizes at a low level, but the upward space is limited [9]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market Data**: In the US, the new cotton harvest is about 40% - 50% complete. In Brazil, more than 50% of the new cotton has been processed and inspected, and the export in September accelerated significantly. In Australia, the new cotton sowing has good soil moisture, and the new - season production is expected to exceed the average level. In China, the new cotton picking progress is nearly 70%, the public inspection volume is 82.3 million tons, and the sales progress is 6.7%. The domestic cotton commercial inventory has increased to 143.34 million tons [11][12]. - **Analysis**: The increase in supply from the harvest of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, along with the support from India's MSP import tariff and the high level of unpriced buy orders, restricts the upward movement of cotton prices. In the Chinese market, the continuous harvest of new cotton and the increase in imports put pressure on the supply side. The downstream demand is in a seasonal weakening trend, and the foreign trade performance remains under pressure. The main contract price is approaching the intensive hedging pressure level, and there is a risk of price re - adjustment and decline [13]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Market Data**: The estimated new - season production of red dates is between 56 - 62 million tons, a decrease compared to previous years. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises this week is 9167 tons, a decrease of 158 tons from the previous week [16]. - **Analysis**: Based on the current production forecast and the carry - over inventory, there is still expected supply pressure after the new fruit is listed. In the short term, the new - season red dates in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and there is a risk of short - term speculation. The demand is expected to gradually improve as the temperature drops, but there is no obvious inflection point yet. The strategy is to sell on rally around the time of the new jujube harvest [17]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Data**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of enterprises in October increased by 5.48% compared to the previous month. The average slaughter weight increased by 0.01 kg this week. The number of newly - born piglets in September increased by 0.11 million heads compared to the previous month. The number of breeding sows decreased in August and September [19]. - **Analysis**: The widening of the price difference between standard and fattened pigs has led to an increase in the entry of secondary fattening in North China and Northeast China, shifting the supply pressure to the end of November to early December. In the short term, the slaughter progress in early October was slow, and the supply pressure in Q4 is expected to increase. The post - festival demand has gradually declined, and the wholesale and sales have slowed down. The short - term market rebound is recommended to be used as an opportunity to sell [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment [2] - Silver: High-level correction [2] - Copper: High-level consolidation [2] - Zinc: Rebound and short sell [2] - Lead: Rebound [2] - Tin: Rebound [2] - Aluminum: Rebound, with pressure [2] - Nickel: Stabilize [2] - Industrial silicon: Range-bound [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [2] Core Views - The prices of gold and silver dropped significantly due to the potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the withdrawal of speculative forces. However, in the long term, gold's upward logic remains unchanged, while silver has a supply - demand gap in the long run. Copper prices are affected by the potential end of the war and inventory accumulation, but are still bullish in the long term. Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. Lead, tin, and aluminum prices show short - term rebound trends. Nickel prices are stabilizing at a low level. Industrial silicon is in a range - bound state. Polysilicon is expected to rise after a correction. Lithium carbonate is in a state of supply - demand balance and is cautiously bullish [2]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Geopolitical relaxation and profit - taking of overbought funds led to a sharp decline in gold and silver prices, with the largest decline in 12 years [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine process is full of uncertainties; the tariff atmosphere between G2 is easing; there are political changes in Japan. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for gold prices to stop falling in the short term. For silver, exit short - term positions and hold long - term positions. Long - term gold's upward logic remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level, with a V - shaped rebound during the session, and returned to the support level of 85,000 yuan [6]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, and domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink. High copper prices led to inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions with trailing stop - loss protection. New long positions should wait for a pull - back to stabilize. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fluctuated and were under pressure at the 22,000 - yuan mark [9]. - **Underlying Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc smelters are actively producing. The peak season for demand is not strong, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas zinc persists [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profits on short positions and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions. Zinc is a short - side allocation in the long term [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded with pressure, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high production capacity and inventory is decreasing. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the short term, and pay attention to the operating range of the main contract [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices rebounded from a low level [16]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances have weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. Stainless steel inventory has accumulated, and terminal demand is weak [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for now, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption and the operating range of the main contract [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened slightly lower and fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day [20]. - **Underlying Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory has been decreasing for 9 consecutive weeks, and terminal demand is strong. There are rumors of supply - side accidents [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range of 75,500 - 77,000 yuan [22].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹表需正常回升，产量略降，库存回落，数据整体符合季节性特征。目前表观消费仍 | | 螺纹钢 ★ | 谨慎看多 | 低于去年同期，成交低迷，下游需求疲弱。铁水产量维持高位，总体供给偏高，供需向 上驱动力量有限。近期盘面的下跌体现了供需宽松的状态，连续下行后或有短期反弹。 | | | | 热卷表需回升，产量小幅下降，库存继续上升，同期偏高，超出季节性表现。目前铁水 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 产量仍较高，热卷生产利润好于螺纹，后期库存矛盾或进一步发展，表现或相对偏弱。 | | ★ | | | | | | 数据来看，铁水微降，钢厂去库，港口明显累库。但外矿发货高位放量，到货明显缩量。 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 钢企利润快速压缩，静态基本面中性偏弱。下游成材端节后库存压力逐步体现，产业负 | | ★ | | 反馈担忧加重。关注钢厂减产情况，短期矿价震荡偏弱运行。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦企利润近期较稳定，现货生产相对稳定。铁水产量维持高位运行，原料需求较佳。焦 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 炭本身供需相对平衡， ...

中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 淡季供给过剩仍为核心驱动，油价偏弱。地缘方面，消息称特朗普将与普 | | 原油 | | 京在布达佩斯会面；库存方面，进入消费淡季，美国库存连续累库；供需 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 方面，OPEC+10 月 5 日会议计划于 11 月继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | | | 渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量变化。策略：空单部 | | | | 分止盈。 | | | | 成本端油价偏弱，下游化工需求下降，上方承压。成本端油价走势偏弱； | | LPG | | 基差走弱，期货盘面涨幅大于现货涨幅；供给端相对充足，厂内库存上升； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下游化工开工率下降，需求端支撑下降。策略：合约换月，走势偏弱，逢 | | | | 高空。 | | | | 社库缓慢去化，夜盘再创新低，期限共振下跌。广西石化 70 万吨装置计 | | L | | 划本月底投产，四季度开工季节性回升，供给延续宽松格局。需求端旺季 | | | 空头延续 | 来临， ...

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views - Investment ratings for various metals: Gold (★★★, buy and hold), Silver (★★, hold long - term), Copper (★★, hold long - term), Zinc (★, sell on rebound), Lead (★, rebound), Tin (★, rebound), Aluminum (★, rebound), Nickel (★, stabilize), Industrial Silicon (★, range - bound), Polysilicon (★, bullish), Lithium Carbonate (★, cautiously bullish) [2] - Core views: Gold is supported by geopolitical factors and long - term positive factors; silver has short - term volatility but long - term bullish logic; copper has a supply contraction expectation in Q4 and long - term bullishness; zinc has increasing supply and decreasing demand; lead and tin have short - term rebound trends; aluminum has a short - term rebound under certain conditions; nickel is stabilizing at a low level; industrial silicon is range - bound; polysilicon is bullish; lithium carbonate is in a tight supply - demand balance and is cautiously bullish [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - G2 atmosphere may ease, but issues like the US government shutdown, Russia - Ukraine conflict, and Middle East problems are recurring, providing support for gold and silver prices [3] Fundamental Logic - Trump administration is relaxing tariffs, the US government shutdown may continue, there are changes in Japan's political situation, and gold benefits from long - term factors such as global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [4] Strategy Recommendation - Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged, with clear support at 960 in the domestic market. For silver, pay attention to sentiment rhythm, and short - term investors should exit and wait, while long - term positions can be held [5] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level, standing firm at the 85,000 support [7] Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, domestic copper production in Q4 may contract, downstream demand is affected, and social inventory accumulates slightly [7] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing copper long positions with trailing stop - loss, new long positions should wait for callbacks. Pay attention to support at 82,500 - 83,000 and resistance at 86,500 - 87,000. Long - term, copper is bullish [8] Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Zinc stops falling and rebounds, testing the 22,000 resistance [10] Industrial Logic - Global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025 - 2026, domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, demand is under pressure, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas persists [10] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term zinc short positions can take profits, wait for rebounds to re - enter. Long - term, zinc is a short - side allocation in the sector [11] Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum price rebounds under pressure, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [13] Industrial Logic - There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, and alumina is in an oversupply situation in the short term [14] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term, buy aluminum on dips, pay attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, with the main operating range of [20,500 - 21,500] [15] Group 6: Nickel Market Review - Nickel price stabilizes slightly, and stainless steel rebounds slightly [17] Industrial Logic - Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances weaken, nickel inventory accumulates, and stainless steel inventory also increases with weak terminal demand [18] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, with the main operating range of nickel at [120,000 - 122,000] [19] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opens high and moves low, oscillating horizontally throughout the day [21] Industrial Logic - Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory has declined for 9 consecutive weeks, demand is strong, and the main capital's position transfer may drive the price up [22] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions in the 2601 contract with the range of [75,700 - 77,000] [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Agricultural Products - **Beans and Oilseeds**: Short - term bearish consolidation for soybean meal and rapeseed meal; short - term oscillation for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil; high - level oscillation for rapeseed oil [1] - **Cotton**: Uptrend under pressure in the short term, with ICE market expected to maintain range - bound oscillation [1] - **Red Dates**: Sell on rallies during the new - season jujube harvest [1] - **Pork**: Sell on rallies for live pigs, with supply pressure remaining high in Q4 [1] 2.2 Market Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: Weakly sorted due to lack of strong bullish drivers, with support around 2800 yuan/ton [1][4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Follows the trend of soybean meal, with limited upside due to seasonal demand decline [1][6] - **Palm Oil**: High - level oscillation due to mixed long and short factors, with limited upside potential [1][8] - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term oscillation, with supply sufficient and dependent on palm oil for upward momentum [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: High - level oscillation due to low processing rates, hoarding, and seasonal demand [1] - **Cotton**: New - cotton supply pressure and weak downstream demand limit upside, with ICE market range - bound [1][12] - **Red Dates**: New - season supply pressure and potential short - term speculation risk, sell on rallies [1][15] - **Pork**: Supply pressure remains high in Q4, with short - term rebound for selling opportunities [1][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 17, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased by 208,000 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory increased by 2,940 tons week - on - week; soybean meal inventory decreased by 102,900 tons week - on - week [3] - **Price and Spread**: Futures price increased by 0.94% to 2,895 yuan/ton; spot price increased slightly; various spreads showed different changes [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is sufficient, but oil mills' profit is in deficit, and downstream replenishment is weak. Brazilian weather and Sino - US trade tariffs affect the market [4] 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of October 17, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory decreased by 12,000 tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 3,700 tons week - on - week [6] - **Price and Spread**: Futures price increased by 1.91% to 2,350 yuan/ton; spot price increased slightly; various spreads changed [5] - **Supply and Demand**: International supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is in the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations affect the market [6] 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of October 17, 2025, national key area commercial inventory increased by 28,100 tons week - on - week [8] - **Price and Spread**: Futures price increased by 0.11% to 9,318 yuan/ton; spot price increased; various spreads changed significantly [7] - **Supply and Demand**: US soybean oil competition and strong early - October Malaysian export data create mixed factors [8] 3.4 Cotton - **Market Data**: US new - cotton harvest is 40% - 50% complete; Brazilian new - cotton processing exceeds 50%; domestic new - cotton picking is 58.8% complete [10][11] - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices of different contracts increased; basis and spreads changed [9] - **Supply and Demand**: Global new - cotton supply increases, downstream demand is seasonally weak, and Sino - US trade affects the market [12] 3.5 Red Dates - **Market Data**: 36 sample enterprises' inventory decreased by 158 tons week - on - week [13] - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices decreased slightly; spot prices were stable; various spreads changed [13] - **Supply and Demand**: New - season production is expected to decrease, but supply pressure remains after considering inventory. Demand is improving [15] 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Data**: National sample enterprises' pig inventory increased by 566,100 month - on - month; slaughter volume decreased by 479,600 month - on - month [16] - **Price and Spread**: Futures prices increased; spot prices were stable; various spreads changed [16] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply pressure remains high in Q4 due to second - fattening and slow early - October slaughter. Demand is weak after the holidays [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report maintains a cautious and bearish view on the energy and chemical industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The core drivers in the current market are the supply surplus during the off - season, accelerated global crude oil inventory accumulation, and geopolitical easing, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [8] - For various energy and chemical products, most are facing supply - demand imbalances, cost pressures, and inventory issues, resulting in a generally bearish or cautiously bearish outlook [1][2][5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Geopolitical easing, supply surplus, and inventory accumulation lead to downward pressure on oil prices [1][8] - **Logic**: OPEC + plans to expand production in November, increasing supply pressure. US inventories are rising during the consumption off - season. The IEA predicts higher supply growth and lower demand growth in 2025 - 2026 [1][9] - **Strategy**: Partially take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of SC at [430 - 440] [10] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish. Cost - end oil price drag, rising transportation cost expectations, and weakening downstream demand [1][13] - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are weakening. China's counter - measures may increase transportation costs. Supply is relatively sufficient, and downstream chemical开工率 is declining [1][13] - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14] L - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation. Cost support weakens, and supply remains loose [1][18] - **Logic**: New装置s are coming into operation, and the supply pattern remains loose. Demand is in the peak season, but restocking motivation is insufficient [18] - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. The market maintains a bearish trend, focusing on the range of L at [6800 - 7000] [18] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation. Rising warehouse receipts and weak cost - end oil prices [1][23] - **Logic**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, and the post - holiday inventory reduction is slow. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and there is high inventory reduction pressure in the future [23] - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of PP at [6500 - 6700] [23] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish rebound. Short - term rebound following coal prices, but supply - demand imbalance persists [1][27] - **Logic**: Short - term device maintenance leads to slight inventory reduction, but new产能 is being released, and demand faces uncertainties such as anti - dumping taxes [27] - **Strategy**: Lightly participate in short - term rebounds. Focus on the range of V at [4600 - 4800] [27] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Cost - end pressure and potential supply - demand improvement [1][28] - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are under pressure, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels [28] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. Focus on the range of PX at [6310 - 6410] [29] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Inventory accumulation pressure and limited upward drivers [2][31] - **Logic**: Supply - end device maintenance and new装置s are coming into operation. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is inventory accumulation pressure from October to November [31] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. Focus on the range of TA at [4420 - 4480] [32] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Supply - demand looseness and low valuation [2][34] - **Logic**: Domestic装置s are increasing production, overseas装置s have slight load reduction, and inventory is accumulating. Cost - end oil prices are under pressure [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG at [4010 - 4100] [35] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. High inventory and weak fundamentals, but potential long - term opportunities [2][37] - **Logic**: High inventory suppresses prices. Supply pressure is large due to domestic装置maintenance and high import volume. Demand lacks obvious positive factors [37] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for long - position opportunities on the 01 contract at low prices [37] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Weak domestic demand and high inventory, but export support [2][41] - **Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, and domestic demand is weak. However, fertilizer exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [41] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Lightly try long positions in the medium - to - long - term. Focus on the overall market situation of urea [40][42] Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish. Sufficient supply and potential price decline [5] - **Logic**: US natural gas rig count is increasing, indicating sufficient supply. Although there is some demand support from temperature changes, the overall trend is bearish [5] - **Strategy**: Not specifically mentioned in the report Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish. Cost - end pressure and supply - demand imbalance [5] - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are weakening, and the growth rate of asphalt production is higher than that of demand. Demand in the north is affected by weather [5] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5] Glass - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish continuation. Weak demand and supply pressure [5] - **Logic**: There is no short - term macro - policy drive, real estate transaction area is weak, and factory inventory is increasing [5] - **Strategy**: Short - sell based on the 5 - day moving average in the short term [5] Soda Ash - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish continuation. Supply surplus and industrial hedging pressure [5] - **Logic**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, factory inventory is rising, and supply is loose. Demand is mostly for rigid needs [5] - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, short on rebounds. Hold long positions on the soda - glass spread [5]