Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Hold short positions [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks outweigh the weakening fundamentals, with oil prices showing near - term strength and long - term weakness. Hold short positions [1][3][4] - LPG: Cost - end support and decent fundamentals lead to a rebound. Cautiously bullish [1][6][7] - L: Downstream inquiries increase. Cautiously bullish, but with a weak fundamental pattern [1][9][13] - PP: High upstream maintenance and improved export margins. Cautiously bullish, but high production limits the rebound space [1][16][20] - PVC: Insufficient policy support for demand in the short term. Cautiously bearish [1][23][26] - PX: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and crude oil prices are strong. Cautiously bullish [1][29][31] - PTA: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Cautiously bearish [1][33][35] - Ethylene glycol: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the macro situation does not exceed expectations. Cautiously bearish [1][37][39] - Glass: The market is affected by policy expectations, with inventory reduction. Cautiously bearish [2][41][43] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, but with inventory accumulation and weak downstream support. Cautiously bearish [2][44][45] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, and demand is mixed. Cautiously bearish [2][46][47] - Methanol: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand feedback needs attention. Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Fundamentals are relatively loose, with cost support. Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cost - end pressure and neutral - bearish fundamentals. Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak basis and abundant supply. Cautiously bearish [2] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices continued to strengthen. WTI rose 1.14%, Brent rose 1.10%, and SC rose 1.77% [3] - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical and macro factors are favorable in the short term, but OPEC's production increase brings supply pressure. In terms of supply, Guyana's average crude oil production in the first half of the year was 639,000 barrels per day, and the EU imposed new sanctions on Russia. In terms of demand, India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% compared with the previous month, while China's imports increased. In terms of inventory, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased [4] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [525 - 540] [5] LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 30, the PG main contract closed at 4045 yuan/ton, up 0.62% [6] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price stabilizes, and downstream chemical demand recovers. The base spread is high, and inventory shows some changes. The supply of liquefied gas has decreased slightly, and the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates have increased [7] - **Strategy**: Sell put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4000 - 4100] [8] L - **Market Performance**: Futures prices showed minor fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume decreased [10] - **Fundamentals**: The off - peak season for agricultural films is about to pass, and downstream inquiries have increased. However, most devices are restarting, and social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks. The base spread and monthly spread are at low levels [13] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, and industrial customers can sell for hedging when the delivery month approaches. L is expected to be in the range of [7300 - 7500] [13] PP - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined with reduced positions [17] - **Fundamentals**: High upstream maintenance and improved export margins, but downstream replenishment power is insufficient, and commercial inventory has started to accumulate. The base spread and monthly spread are at low levels, and high production limits the rebound space [20] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, and industrial customers can sell for hedging. PP is expected to be in the range of [7000 - 7300] [20] PVC - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined with reduced positions [23] - **Fundamentals**: The Politburo meeting did not mention the real estate market, resulting in insufficient short - term demand - side policy support. New production capacity is being released, and social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks [26] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. V is expected to be in the range of [5050 - 5300] [26] PX - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices showed certain changes [29] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with inventory reduction but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and crude oil prices are strong recently [31] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options. PX is expected to be in the range of [6970 - 7050] [31][32] PTA - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices changed [33] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase due to new device production, and demand is seasonally weak. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries are somewhat differentiated. TA's fundamentals are expected to shift from tight balance to looseness [35] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, shrink the PTA processing fee, or sell call options. TA is expected to be in the range of [4820 - 4890] [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices changed [37] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low compared to the same period. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders are declining. Supply and demand are in a tight balance in July, and low inventory provides some support [39] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. EG is expected to be in the range of [4390 - 4470] [40] Glass - **Market Performance**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rose slightly [42] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, the market sentiment was strong. The inventory continued to decline, and the profit situation improved [43] - **Strategy**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1180, 1260] [43] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Heavy - soda ash spot prices were stable, and the futures market showed mixed trends [44] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the policy expectation, the industry sentiment was boosted, but the alkali plant inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream support was weak [45] - **Strategy**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1300, 1370] [45] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market declined [46] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is approaching saturation, and demand is mixed. The main downstream alumina industry has increased its production, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The inventory of liquid caustic soda has increased [47] - **Strategy**: SH is expected to be in the range of [2610, 2680] [47] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and demand feedback needs attention. Social inventory has decreased, but overall it is at a low level [2] - **Strategy**: Take profit on long positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. MA is expected to be in the range of [2380 - 2430] [2] Urea - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: The overall domestic supply is relatively loose, with cost support. The demand in the domestic industrial and agricultural sectors is weak, but exports are relatively good [2] - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, arrange short positions on rallies, and sell high - strike call options. UR is expected to be in the range of [1710 - 1750] [2] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not fully described in the provided text - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, and supply and demand are both decreasing. The inventory is accumulating, and the crack spread is at a high level [2] - **Strategy**: Try short positions with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3600 - 3700] [2] Propylene - **Market Performance**: The spot market showed differences in price trends [2] - **Fundamentals**: The PDH operating rate has been rising, and supply is abundant. Pay attention to relevant anti - involution policies [2] - **Strategy**: Hold the 1 - 2 month spread reverse arbitrage and increase the processing fee of the PP futures market. PL is expected to be in the range of [6500 - 6700] [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - For gold, it's recommended to be cautious and go long. Short - term, the market may adjust, but long - term, it's suitable for strategic allocation due to factors like multi - country monetary policy easing and central bank gold purchases [1]. - For silver, it's advisable to try going long after stabilization. It follows the adjustment of gold and copper, but with a long - term upward trend due to economic demand and fiscal stimulus [1]. - For copper, it's suggested to go long on dips. Although it's under short - term pressure, it's still promising in the long run [1]. - For zinc, it's recommended to sell on rallies. It will face short - term pressure and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long run [1]. - For lead, its price rebound is under pressure due to factors like inventory accumulation [1]. - For tin, its price rebound is under pressure because of slow复产 and inventory accumulation [1]. - For aluminum, its price rebound is under pressure due to high imports and inventory accumulation [1]. - For nickel, its price rebound is under pressure because of factors like inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand [1]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, it's advisable to be cautiously bullish, being vigilant about the risk of price drops [1]. - For lithium carbonate, it's advisable to be cautiously bullish, paying attention to support levels and being vigilant about price drops [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Due to Powell's tight - lipped stance, strong US data, and the fading of tariff risks, the gold and silver market has adjusted [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Tariff tensions have eased, US data has reduced the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the Fed's interest - rate decision has maintained the status quo. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support levels of gold at around 760 and silver at 9000 during the adjustment period [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper opened lower and fluctuated downward [5]. - **Industry Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, electrolytic copper production is increasing, demand has mixed performance, and inventory is accumulating [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to factors like the expected exemption of copper tariffs and inventory accumulation, copper is under short - term pressure but promising in the long run. Focus on the price range of Shanghai copper at [77500, 79500] and London copper at [9650, 9850] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure, and London zinc lost the 2800 mark [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, refined zinc production is increasing, and demand is weak during the off - season [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the fading of macro - sentiment, zinc returns to its fundamentals. It's under short - term pressure and has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long run. Focus on the price range of Shanghai zinc at [22400, 22800] and London zinc at [2650, 2850] dollars per ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rebound was weak, and alumina rebounded and then declined [11]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, production capacity is increasing, inventory is accumulating, and demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is also accumulating [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000, 20800] [13]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price rebound was under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [15]. - **Industry Logic**: For nickel, overseas uncertainty remains, and inventory is accumulating. For stainless steel, production cuts are weakening, and inventory pressure is emerging during the off - season [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000, 123000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for three consecutive days and rose and then fell during the day [19]. - **Industry Logic**: Total inventory is accumulating, but price increases are shifting inventory. Production is rising despite some company cut - offs. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses is a focus, and there may be significant fluctuations [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's advisable to wait and see, paying attention to the support at 68,000. The price range is [70000, 73500] [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Bean Meal**: It is expected to show a large - range oscillation. The domestic soybean and bean meal are in the inventory - accumulation stage until the end of September, with the inventory - accumulation speed in August expected to slow down compared to July. The Sino - US trade tariff is the key cost support for bean meal. After the latest Sino - US negotiation result, the original tariff rate is maintained and extended for 90 days. Under the cost - support expectation, the domestic bean meal price rebounded. With the combination of weak fundamentals and cost support, it presents a large - range market [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is expected to have a large - range oscillation. The global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, but there is dry soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories of oil mills are decreasing month - on - month, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. From July to September, the rapeseed import decreased significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts upward pressure. The low spot price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal reduces the feed addition of rapeseed meal. Yesterday, rapeseed meal followed the price of bean meal and continued to rebound [1][4][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Be cautious about chasing long positions. After a series of previous positive factors, the market lacks more positive drivers, and Malaysian palm oil may return to the July supply - demand fundamentals. Based on the production and export data from the first 25 days of July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July. In the next one to two weeks, the price may need to adjust, and opportunities to go long after the price stabilizes can be considered [1][7][9]. - **Cotton**: Be cautiously bearish. The soil moisture in the main cotton - producing areas of the US has slightly deteriorated, but the new cotton growth is still good. The weekly export has weakened significantly, suppressing the upward movement of the market. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have increased, pushing up the guaranteed output. The commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment of downstream finished products has slowed down recently, weakening the cotton - using expectation. The orders of textile enterprises have reached a five - year low, and the operating rate is gradually decreasing. The negative feedback of demand on the inventory - reduction logic is gradually reflected in the market [1][10][13]. - **Red Dates**: Be cautiously bearish. The growth of new - season jujube trees is relatively good. The market previously expected a significant decline in production due to the "alternate - bearing" phenomenon, but there are no obvious signs of significant production reduction in the second and third - crop fruit - setting in the producing areas. The self - regulatory statement of some enterprises in the industry is difficult to promote widely. With weak fundamentals, there is great pressure for the price to rise after filling the gap. Opportunities to short at high prices after the price rebounds driven by macro - sentiment can be considered [1][15][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Be cautiously bullish. The risk of second - fattening selling has been realized, and the accelerated short - term slaughter rhythm has pushed down the price of live pigs. However, considering the short - term rebound of the price difference between standard and fat pigs, there is still some enthusiasm in the second - fattening link, making it difficult for the near - month contracts to break through downward. The fact of medium - and long - term over - capacity remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent capacity reduction can boost the far - month price. For near - month contracts, short positions can consider gradually taking profits, and for far - month contracts, long positions can be established at low prices after the spot price stabilizes [1][17][19]. 3. Summaries by Variety Bean Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 106,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.4559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons; the bean meal inventory was 1.0431 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,700 tons. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' bean meal were 8.19 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 days [3]. - **Price**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of bean meal was 3,010 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 27 yuan or 0.91%. The national average spot price was 2,969.71 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 36.28 yuan or 1.24% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 137,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 54,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in the main regions of the country was 665,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,300 tons [6]. - **Price**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of rapeseed meal was 2,735 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 75 yuan or 2.82%. The national average spot price was 2,698.42 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 85.26 yuan or 3.26% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 615,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,100 tons or 4.08%, and a year - on - year increase of 108,800 tons or 21.47% [9]. - **Price**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of palm oil was 8,982 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 12 yuan or 0.13%. The national average price was 9,063 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 58 yuan or 0.64% [7]. Cotton - **Production**: In China, the new cotton in Xinjiang has entered the boll - setting stage, with a flowering rate of over 90%. The high - temperature weather in Xinjiang will significantly ease this week, and the probability of re - hyping high - temperature factors is low. The seedling conditions in each main producing area are better than last year, and the national average yield per unit is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, with the output expected to reach over 7.4 million tons [12]. - **Inventory**: The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons, lower than the same period last year by 37,600 tons. The inventory of pure - cotton yarn and grey cloth continued to accumulate and was higher than last year, but the inventory - accumulation speed slowed down significantly this week [12]. - **Price**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, decreased by 1.89% during the day, closing at 13,755 yuan/ton. The domestic spot price remained stable at 15,558 yuan/ton [10][11]. Red Dates - **Production**: The new - season jujube trees are growing well. The market previously expected a significant decline in production, but the actual situation shows that the production reduction may be within 10%, lower than the previous expectation [15][16]. - **Inventory**: According to Mysteel's research data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons, higher than the same period last year by 4,422 tons, and the inventory - reduction speed has accelerated compared to the previous four weeks [15]. - **Price**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, increased by 0.65% during the day, closing at 10,805 yuan/ton [14][15]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Output**: The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 3.71993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,520 tons or 0.31%; the live - pig output was 1.12559 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,770 tons or 1.51%. The national inventory of breeding sows was 4.043 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons or 0.02% [17]. - **Price**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2509, decreased by 0.49% during the day, closing at 14,075 yuan/ton. The domestic live - pig spot price decreased by 0.14% to 14,210 yuan/ton [17][18].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普就俄乌冲突对普京施压，IMF 上调全球经济增速，油价反弹。宏观 | | | | 及地缘带来利好，短期提振油价；从供需基本面看，油价进入旺季下半程， | | 原油 | 反弹加空 | 随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大， | | | | 当前供给端重要变量集中在美国产能变化。策略：卖出 10 合约同时买入 | | | | 看涨期权对冲风险。SC【520-535】 | | LPG | 谨慎看多 | 油价企稳反弹，自身基本面尚可，液化气反弹。成本端原油反弹，但中长 | | | | 期仍有压缩空间；基差处于高位，估值偏低；下游化工需求回升，PDH 开 | | | | 工率升至 73.13%；供给和库存中性偏多，国内商品量小幅下降，港口库 | | | | 存有所下降。策略：卖出看跌期权。PG【4000-4100】 | | L | 谨慎看多 | 原油上涨，中美贸易谈判结束。社会库存连续 5 周累库，基本面承压。塑 | | | | 料煤制占比 20%，老旧产能占比 14%，多数产能已 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry-wide investment ratings are provided. The ratings are given on a per-variety basis, including "Big range shock" for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, "Cautious about chasing long" for palm oil, "Cautious short" for cotton and red dates, and "Cautious long" for live pigs [1]. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of six agricultural products, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, red dates, and live pigs, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the supply and demand fundamentals, policy factors, and market sentiment of each product [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The climate center has a neutral outlook, and the soybean planting weather in the US is generally favorable. In China, the soybean and soybean meal inventories are in the accumulation phase, which is expected to last until the end of September, with the accumulation rate in August expected to slow down compared to July. The Sino-US trade tariff is the key cost support for soybean meal. The price of domestic soybean meal rebounded technically after a continuous decline, and the market is waiting for new progress in Sino-US trade negotiations [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Treat it as a big range market. Pay attention to the results of this week's Sino-US trade negotiations. The main contract range is [2960, 3010] [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The global rapeseed production has recovered year-on-year, but the soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed is relatively dry. In the domestic market, the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills are decreasing month-on-month, but still remain at a relatively high level year-on-year. From July to September, the import of rapeseed decreased significantly year-on-year, coupled with a 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old crop Canadian rapeseed, which strongly supports the price of rapeseed meal. However, the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed puts upward pressure on the price of rapeseed meal. In the spot market, the low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has led to a decrease in the addition of rapeseed meal in feed, which is not conducive to consumption expectations [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Treat it as a big range market. Pay attention to the improvement of Sino-Canadian relations and the subsequent progress between China and Australia. The main contract range is [2620, 2700] [1]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The USDA's July supply and demand report lowered the global palm oil ending stocks for the new year, and India's palm oil imports increased by 61.19% month-on-month in June, which is positive for market sentiment. The Indonesian government said it has sufficient funds to achieve the B40 target this year and complete the research and testing work for B50, dispelling previous market doubts and driving up the international palm oil price. Malaysia increased the export tariff for August, which is equivalent to increasing the import cost of domestic palm oil. After a series of positive factors, the market lacks further positive drivers, and Malaysian palm oil is expected to return to the supply and demand fundamentals in July. Based on the production and export data from the first 25 days of July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious about chasing long. There is a risk of price correction in the next one to two weeks. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes. Pay attention to the domestic palm oil purchase orders in the past three months. The main contract range is [8800, 9100] [1]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: In the US, the drought in the western cotton-growing areas has slightly worsened the soil moisture, but the growth of new cotton is still good. The latest good-to-excellent rate has slightly declined but still leads the same period last year. The weekly export has weakened significantly, suppressing the upward movement of the market. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have both increased, and the guaranteed output has shifted upwards. In terms of inventory, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment momentum of downstream finished products has slowed down significantly in the latest week. In terms of demand, the orders of textile enterprises have reached a new low in the past five years during the off-season, and the difference in the operating rates of the two factories has gradually widened. There is a need to be vigilant about the negative feedback of the weakening marginal demand on the inventory reduction support logic [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious about shorting. Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting at high levels and the reverse spread opportunity between the 11th and 1st contracts. Be vigilant about the risk of abnormal fluctuations before the results of the Sino-US trade negotiations are released this week. The main contract range is [13750, 14000] [1]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The growth of new jujube trees is relatively good. The market previously expected a significant decline in this year's production due to the "alternate bearing" phenomenon, but the actual second and third crop fruit-setting situations in the producing areas have not shown obvious signs of production reduction. Recently, many institutions have gone to Xinjiang for further investigations. The high inventory situation persists, and it is difficult to accelerate inventory reduction under weak demand. In terms of industry news, only three enterprises are currently implementing the floor purchase orders of some enterprises in the statement of the First Division, and it is difficult to promote it widely under the self-discipline statement [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Be cautious about shorting. It is recommended to short at high levels cautiously. Pay attention to industry policies. The main contract range is [10150, 10950] [1]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the slowdown in the live pig slaughter rhythm and the pressure on栏 and reluctance to sell of farmers support the price bottom. Driven by the anti-involution sentiment, the live pig market has shown significant fluctuations. However, considering that the weight reduction is not complete, there is still a subsequent supply pressure after the phased pressure eases, and the overcapacity in the medium and long term remains unchanged. There is a need to be vigilant about the risk of selling off due to the previous second-round fattening [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: For the 09 contract, be vigilant about the risk of further correction as the current basis level is still relatively low and the spot price is slowing down in following the futures price. The 01 contract is relatively strong due to the earlier delivery time compared to previous years. For the far-month contracts, based on the optimistic expectation of the industry's anti-involution, consider going long at low levels or adopting a cross-year reverse spread strategy [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Adjustment for long - term strategic allocation due to potential dollar weakness, monetary policy easing, and continued gold purchases by countries, despite short - term uncertainties from geopolitics and trade negotiations [1] - Silver: Follow gold and copper adjustments, with long - term upward trend intact due to economic demand and fiscal stimulus, short - term adjustment to focus on support around 9050 [1] - Copper: Short - term struggle at the 79,000 psychological level, recommend dip - buying, long - term bullish due to global copper mine tightness [1][7] - Zinc: Short - term wait - and - see due to uncertain sentiment, long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease, look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][10] - Lead: Price rebound is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream consumption [1] - Tin: Price rebound is under pressure due to slow复产 in Myanmar, weak supply - demand, and inventory accumulation [1] - Aluminum: Price rebound is under pressure due to high - level imports of bauxite and inventory accumulation in the off - season [1][12] - Nickel: Price rebound is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][13] - Industrial Silicon: Likely to remain at a high level despite supply increase and demand drag [1] - Polysilicon: Likely to remain at a high level with strong cost support but limited spot trading [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation with supply - side risks, focus on 69,000 support [1][15] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Gold and silver prices oscillated at high levels due to the uncertain cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine and weak US data [2] - **基本逻辑**: Short - term tariff risks receded, but long - term gold bullish logic remains due to Fed rate - cut expectations, debt issuance acceleration, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping [3] - **策略推荐**: Focus on support around 760 for gold and 9100 for silver, maintain long - term views [4] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, back to the 79,000 level [6] - **产业逻辑**: Tight copper concentrate supply, increasing electrolytic copper production, weakening rod - making开工率, and potential impact of US tariff policies on exports [6] - **策略推荐**: Short - term dip - buying on copper, long - term bullish, focus on Shanghai copper range [78,000, 80,000] and London copper range [9700, 9900] [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and oscillated narrowly [9] - **产业逻辑**: Abundant zinc concentrate supply in 2025, increasing refined zinc production, weak demand in the off - season [9] - **策略推荐**: Short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - selling on rallies, focus on Shanghai zinc range [22,400, 22,800] and London zinc range [2650, 2850] [10] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, while alumina prices rebounded [11] - **产业逻辑**: High - level aluminum ingot and bar inventory in the off - season, weakening downstream开工率, and abundant alumina supply [12] - **策略推荐**: Short - term short - selling on aluminum rallies, focus on the range [20,000, 20,800] [12] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices faced pressure on rebounds, while stainless steel prices rebounded slightly [13] - **产业逻辑**: Weak nickel supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and over - supply in the stainless steel market during the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: Short - selling on nickel and stainless steel rallies, focus on the nickel range [120,000, 123,000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduced positions with a 6% decline [14] - **产业逻辑**: Inventory accumulation, production increase despite some corporate cut - offs, and potential impact of mining license risks [15] - **策略推荐**: Wait - and - see, focus on the 69,000 support level [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each variety: - **Thread Steel**: Hold [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Hold [1] - **Iron Ore**: Reduce Short Positions [1] - **Coke**: Hold [1] - **Coking Coal**: Hold [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously Bullish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously Bullish [1] Core Views - **Steel**: Market sentiment has cooled, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. For thread steel, production and apparent demand have both increased month - on - month, and total inventory has decreased slightly, with supply and demand relatively balanced. For hot rolled coil, production and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions [1][3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, molten iron production has declined, supply - side shipments have increased, and arrivals have decreased due to typhoons, with expected subsequent increases in arrivals. Both port and steel mill inventories have increased. The market sentiment has turned cautious after the coking coal position limit, and attention should be paid to policy announcements [1][6]. - **Coke**: Spot coke price increases have lagged behind futures since the previous low, the fourth round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further increases. Coke enterprises' profits are still in a loss state, and production enthusiasm is average. Coke supply and demand are generally relatively balanced, and inventory is relatively stable. Market sentiment may fluctuate due to policy expectations for later meetings [1][8][10]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production has generally increased recently, and the absolute level is similar to the same period last year. Upstream inventory has transferred to downstream, and total inventory is stable. The impact of the energy bureau's inspection of over - production on output may be limited. There is still a possibility of capital - game market conditions, and market sentiment may fluctuate due to later meetings and policy expectations [1][12][14]. - **Ferroalloys**: For silicomanganese, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some production areas due to profit restoration. Manganese ore shipments and arrivals have continued to decline, mainly from South Africa, and the decline in port clearance volume has slowed, with expected low - level port inventory. The current port ore price is firm, providing strong short - term support for alloy prices. For ferrosilicon, last week's fundamentals showed both supply and demand increases, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure [1][16][18]. Summary by Variety Thread Steel - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3353, 3399, and 3294 respectively, with changes of 29, 88, and 20. Spot prices in different regions (Tangshan, Shanghai, etc.) range from 3150 to 3480, with price changes from - 20 to 60. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][2]. - **Fundamentals**: Production and apparent demand have both increased month - on - month, total inventory has decreased slightly, and molten iron production has slightly declined but remains at a high level [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term market has entered high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to hold and pay attention to whether the end - of - month important meeting reiterates anti - involution policies, with a price range of [3340, 3400] [1][5]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3507, 3500, and 3503 respectively, with changes of 98, 81, and 106. Spot prices in different regions (Tianjin, Shanghai, etc.) range from 3420 to 3590, with price changes from 40 to 70. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][2]. - **Fundamentals**: Production and apparent demand have slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited contradictions [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market is currently trading around factors such as macro - policies, anti - involution, and industry production - restriction policies. The production - restriction news has boosted market expectations again, and the market has entered a high - level operation. It is advisable to hold and pay attention to the meeting results, with a price range of [3500, 3580] [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The report does not provide detailed price information but gives a price range of [790, 830] [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Molten iron production has declined, supply - side shipments have increased, and arrivals have decreased due to typhoons, with expected subsequent increases in arrivals. Both port and steel mill inventories have increased [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Reduce short positions and pay attention to policy announcements [1][7]. Coke - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (January, May, September) are 1690.5, 1746.5, and 1633.0 respectively, with price changes of 40.0, 69.5, and 24.5. Spot prices in different regions (Lüliang, Rizhao, etc.) range from 1180 to 1420, with price changes from - 10 to 50. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][9]. - **Fundamentals**: Spot coke price increases have lagged behind futures since the previous low, the fourth round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further increases. Coke enterprises' profits are still in a loss state, and production enthusiasm is average. Coke supply and demand are generally relatively balanced, and inventory is relatively stable [1][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is advisable to hold in the short term, with a price range of [1640, 1730] [1][11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (January, May, September) are 1214.5, 1241.0, and 1120.5 respectively, with price changes of 34.5, 56.5, and 20.0. Spot prices in different regions (Lüliang, Gujiao, etc.) range from 1150 to 1480, with price changes from - 93 to 0. Basis and futures spreads also show different values and changes [1][13]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic coking coal production has generally increased recently, and the absolute level is similar to the same period last year. Upstream inventory has transferred to downstream, and total inventory is stable. The impact of the energy bureau's inspection of over - production on output may be limited [1][14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is advisable to hold in the short term, with a price range of [1120, 1174.5] [1][15]. Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 6286, 6306, and 6212 respectively, with price changes of 184, 176, and 184. Spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc.) range from 5800 to 5850, with price changes from 100 to 150. Basis, spreads, and other data also show different values and changes [1][17]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some production areas due to profit restoration. Manganese ore shipments and arrivals have continued to decline, mainly from South Africa, and the decline in port clearance volume has slowed, with expected low - level port inventory. The current port ore price is firm, providing strong short - term support for alloy prices [1][18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Market sentiment has cooled. Continue to pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and the performance of coking coal, with an expected price range of [6070, 6356] [1][19]. Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 6216, 6230, and 6110 respectively, with price changes of 268, 240, and 270. Spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, etc.) range from 5600 to 5650, with price changes from 0 to 50. Basis, spreads, and other data also show different values and changes [1][17]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week's fundamentals showed both supply and demand increases, the factory inventory pressure has been released, but the delivery inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period, with obvious near - end warehouse receipt pressure [1][18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, market sentiment has cooled. Continue to pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and the performance of coking coal. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still be under pressure, with a price range of [5950, 6270] [1][19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term tariff risks have subsided, but long - term gold has a bullish logic due to factors like the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, accelerated debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping [1][2]. - Silver is under high - level pressure. It follows the adjustment of gold and copper. Although its fundamentals have little change, economic demand provides support, and its long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1]. - Copper is in a situation where bulls and bears are competing at a key psychological level. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and there is long - term confidence in copper [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure and is expected to have a supply increase and demand decrease in the long - term. It is advisable to short on rallies [1][9]. - Lead is under pressure due to factors such as the slow recovery of domestic primary lead smelters, the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises, and weak downstream consumption [1]. - Tin is under pressure as the domestic tin smelting industry is in a state of weak supply and demand, and terminal consumption has entered the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure because of high - level imports of overseas bauxite, inventory accumulation during the off - season, and a weakening开工率 in the aluminum processing industry [1][11]. - Nickel is weak. Overseas nickel ore prices are stable, but downstream stainless - steel production cuts have slowed, and there is still pressure during the terminal consumption off - season [1][13]. - Industrial silicon is in a correction due to factors such as a decline in the "anti - involution" trading sentiment and the impact of a limit - down in coking coal prices [1]. - Polysilicon is in high - level oscillation. The statement of "sales price not lower than cost" provides strong support, but the spot trading volume is limited [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a weak downward trend. The overall inventory is accumulating, and the market sentiment may return to the fundamentals after reaching a peak [1][15]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Due to the agreement on tariffs between the US and Europe, the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, leading to an adjustment in both domestic and foreign gold and silver [2]. - **基本逻辑**: The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and China and the US are in negotiations. The short - term tariff risk has subsided, but factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, accelerated debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping support the long - term bullish logic of gold [2]. - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the support around 760 for gold and 9050 for silver. Treat silver's short - term adjustment as a trading idea [3]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **产业逻辑**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists. Although the production of electrolytic copper is increasing, the demand has mixed performances. There are concerns about the impact of a potential 50% import tariff on US copper in August on China's copper and copper product exports [5]. - **策略推荐**: The signing of the US - EU trade agreement and China - US negotiations have eased tariff concerns. The US dollar index has risen, putting pressure on copper prices. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and the long - term outlook for copper is positive. The attention range for Shanghai copper is [78,000, 80,000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [9,700, 9,900] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc fell under pressure [8]. - **产业逻辑**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant. Domestic new smelting capacities are being released, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, although the rebound of black steel prices has boosted galvanizing demand confidence, it is currently the off - season, and enterprise开工率 is weak [8]. - **策略推荐**: The cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, abundant supply, and inventory accumulation during the off - season have put pressure on zinc prices. In the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease. It is advisable to short on rallies. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22,400, 22,800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [2,650, 2,850] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina showed a downward trend [10]. - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic market sentiment has changed, production capacity has increased, and inventory has accumulated. For alumina, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [11]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20,000, 20,800] yuan/ton, and alumina is expected to be under pressure [11]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices weakened significantly, and stainless steel fell under pressure [12]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas nickel ore prices are falling, and domestic nickel supply and demand are still weak. Stainless - steel production cuts have slowed, and there is still inventory pressure during the off - season [13]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000, 123,000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduced its positions and hit the limit - down [14]. - **产业逻辑**: The overall inventory is accumulating, and the price increase has led to inventory transfer from upstream to the middle. Although there are production cuts in some areas, the production still shows an upward trend. The new - energy vehicle market has a sales decline, and the "anti - involution" policy expectation has become a focus. The supply surplus for the whole year will narrow. The market may return to fundamentals after the sentiment peak [15]. - **策略推荐**: It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach with the price range of [70,000, 73,000] yuan/ton [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: It is expected to be in a large - range oscillation. The domestic soybean and bean meal are in the inventory - accumulation stage until the end of September, with the inventory - accumulation speed in August expected to slow down compared to July. Sino - US trade tariffs are the key cost support for bean meal. In the face of weak fundamentals and cost support, it should be treated as a large - range market. Attention should be paid to the results of this week's Sino - US trade negotiations [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also expected to be in a large - range oscillation. Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed is dry. In the domestic market, rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories in oil mills are decreasing, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. High tariffs and low imports support the price, but the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts upward pressure. The low price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market is not conducive to consumption. Attention should be paid to the improvement of Sino - Canadian relations and Sino - Australian progress [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Caution should be exercised when chasing long positions. The July USDA supply - demand report lowered the global palm oil ending inventory for the new year, and India's palm oil imports increased by 61.19% in June, which is positive for the market. Indonesia's plan to achieve the B40 target and conduct B50 research is also positive. However, after a series of positive factors, the market may return to the July fundamentals, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July. There is a risk of price correction in the next one to two weeks, and opportunities to go long after price stabilization can be considered [1][7]. - **Cotton**: A cautious bearish view is taken. In the international market, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has slightly affected the soil moisture, but the overall cotton situation is still good. In the domestic market, the sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have increased, but there may be potential weather disturbances in August. The commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment power of downstream products has slowed down. The demand from textile enterprises is at a five - year low, and attention should be paid to high - selling opportunities and the 11 - 1 reverse spread [1][11]. - **Red Dates**: A cautious bearish view is also taken. The growth of new - season jujube trees is good, and the expected significant yield reduction due to the "alternate - bearing" phenomenon has not occurred. High inventory persists, and it is difficult to accelerate inventory reduction under weak demand. The implementation of the floor - purchase orders by some enterprises is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling at high prices [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: A cautious bullish view is held. In the short term, the slowdown of the live - pig slaughter rhythm and the pressure - holding and reluctant - to - sell sentiment of the breeding end support the price bottom. However, there is still a back - end supply pressure after the phased pressure eases, and the long - and medium - term over - capacity situation remains. For the 09 contract, beware of further callback risks; for the 01 contract and far - month contracts, consider going long at low prices or adopting the cross - year reverse spread [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bean Meal - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main bean - meal futures contract was 2,990 yuan/ton, down 1.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,943.43 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The national average soybean - pressing profit was - 173.9096 yuan/ton, down 21.27 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 18, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.979 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 252,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.4224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,500 tons; the bean - meal inventory was 998,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,200 tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main rapeseed - meal futures contract was 2,660 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,641.58 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. The national average rapeseed spot - pressing profit was - 620.811 yuan/ton, down 23.32 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 18, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 162,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons; the rapeseed - meal inventory was 12,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 76,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main palm - oil futures contract was 8,946 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,993 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The weekly commercial inventory was 615,500 tons, an increase of 24,100 tons [6]. - **Market Sentiment**: The proportion of those bullish on palm oil increased from 53% to 76% week - on - week, the proportion of those neutral decreased from 29% to 24%, and the proportion of those bearish decreased from 18% to 0 [6]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract CF2509 was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 0.67% from the previous day. The domestic spot price remained stable at 15,558 yuan/ton. The spinning profit of textile enterprises was - 1,496.70 yuan/ton, an increase of 99 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the international market, the non - drought rate of US cotton areas decreased by 4% to 89%, and the excellent - good rate decreased by 2% to 55%. In India, the sown cotton area increased by 7% year - on - year. In Brazil, the new - cotton harvest progress reached 16.7%. In the domestic market, the national average yield per unit is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to exceed 7.4 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons [9][10]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main red - date futures contract CJ2601 was 10,695 yuan/ton, up 2.39% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons [12]. - **Production Situation**: The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the yield is expected to be slightly lower than normal (less than 10% reduction), lower than the previous expectation [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main live - pig futures contract Lh2509 was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from the previous day. The domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,810 yuan/ton. The national sample - enterprise live - pig存栏量 increased by 11,520 to 3.71993 million, and the出栏量 increased by 167,700 to 1.12559 million [15]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the short term, the average weight of live pigs has bottomed out and rebounded, and the price is supported by the pressure - holding and reluctant - to - sell sentiment. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 increased, indicating potential growth in the second - half - year出栏量. In the long term, the policy - driven elimination of backward production capacity has limited coverage, and the industry has not yet entered the stage of full - scale loss and capacity elimination [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Cautiously bearish [1] - PP: Cautiously bearish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the oil market is gradually rising, and the oil price still has room to compress; some chemical products are affected by factors such as inventory, production capacity, and policies, showing different trends of rise and fall [1][2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The supply pressure is gradually rising, and the oil price still has room to compress [1]. - **Basic logic**: The oil market is currently in a situation of weak expectations and strong reality, with certain support below. However, the pressure brought by OPEC's production increase is gradually released, and the oil price center still has room to decline. In terms of supply, Guyana's average crude oil production in the first half of the year was 639,000 barrels per day; the EU introduced a new round of sanctions against Russia, reducing the upper limit of Russian crude oil sanctions to about $50 per barrel. In terms of demand, India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% from the previous month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest level since February; China's crude oil imports in June were 49.888 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 279.386 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. In terms of inventory, as of the week of July 18, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels to 422 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels to 232.8 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels to 106.9 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve SPR decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels [3][4]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium and long term, due to the impact of new energy and the expansion cycle of OPEC+, the supply of crude oil will be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate in the range of $60 - $70 per barrel. In the short term, the daily line rebounds, but the upside pressure is strong. The strategy is to lightly lay out short positions and buy call options to protect the positions. SC focuses on the range of [510 - 525] [5]. LPG - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The oil price stabilizes, and the fundamentals of LPG are okay, leading to a rebound in LPG [1]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is that the cost-side oil price stabilizes, and the fundamentals of LPG improve marginally. Currently, the downstream chemical demand is rising, and the basis is at a high level, so the short-term upward momentum of LPG increases. As of July 28, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous period. In terms of cost and profit, as of July 28, the profit of PDH devices remained unchanged from the previous period, while the profit of alkylation devices decreased by 12.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous period. On the supply side, as of the week of July 25, the total LPG commodity volume decreased by 0.04 million tons compared with the previous week, and the civil LPG commodity volume decreased by 0.18 million tons. On the demand side, as of the week of July 25, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased by 1.35pct, 1.38pct, and 1.99pct respectively compared with the previous period. On the inventory side, as of the week of July 25, the refinery inventory increased by 0.4 million tons compared with the previous period, and the port inventory decreased by 16.59 million tons [6][7]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium and long term, after the geopolitical risks are released, from the perspective of supply and demand, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, and the valuation is neutral. Technically and in the short term, the daily line stabilizes and rebounds. It is recommended to sell put options. PG focuses on the range of [3950 - 4050] [8]. L (Polyethylene) - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals are under pressure [1]. - **Basic logic**: The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The coal-based proportion of plastics is 20%, and the proportion of old production capacity is 14%. Most of the production capacity has been shut down for a long time or replaced. Attention should be paid to policy changes. The marginal improvement of agricultural film operations should be noted, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of raw material replenishment. The restart of devices increases, and the output is expected to increase this week. In the medium and long term, high production limits the rebound space [9][10]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to take profits on long positions, and the industry can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging. L focuses on the range of [7300 - 7450] [10][11]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The number of warehouse receipts increases, and long positions should be reduced [1]. - **Basic logic**: The number of warehouse receipts increases. The coal-based proportion of PP is 19%, and the proportion of old production capacity is 8%. Most of them have been shut down for a long time or replaced. The demand fails to keep up, and the supply is under continuous pressure. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period. From January to June, the cumulative exports increased by 21% year-on-year, and the export profit margin is relatively high in the same period. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in the future. In the medium and long term, the production pressure in the third quarter is relatively high, which limits the upside space [13][14]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to reduce long positions. PP focuses on the range of [7050 - 7250] [14][15]. PVC - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The price of calcium carbide has been falling continuously, and long positions should be reduced [1]. - **Basic logic**: The market sentiment cools down, and the price of calcium carbide has been falling continuously. The proportion of old PVC production capacity is 11%. Attention should be paid to the policy changes in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. The social inventory has been accumulating for 5 consecutive weeks. The 900,000 - ton devices of Fujian Wanhua and Bohua Development have started trial - runs one after another. The weak fundamentals limit the rebound space. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of warehouse receipt registration [18][19]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The short-term market fluctuates greatly, and short-term participation is recommended. The strategy is to reduce long positions. V focuses on the range of [5100 - 5300] [19][20]. PX - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are still positive factors under the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity". Attention should be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips [1]. - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, there are not many changes in domestic and foreign devices. Some domestic devices are under maintenance or have reduced loads, while others have increased loads. In August, some devices are planned to increase loads or restart. Overseas device operating rates are temporarily stable. The PXN spread is at a low level in the same period in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread is positive. The gasoline cracking spread and the comparison between aromatics reforming and oil blending show that the cost of aromatics reforming is more cost - effective. The weekly output of PX has decreased slightly, and the international PX device operating rate has declined. The import volume in June is at a relatively low level in the past five years. On the demand side, there are some changes in PTA device maintenance and new device production. The PTA spot and futures processing fees have increased. The weekly operating rate and output of PTA remain stable and are at a relatively high level in the same period in the past five years. In general, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, the PX inventory is decreasing but still at a high level, the PXN is not low, the basis is strong, and there are still positive factors under the policy [21][22]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips. PX focuses on the range of [6910 - 7030] [22][23]. PTA/PR - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. Recently, there are relatively few changes in device operations. Later, new PTA devices will be put into production, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase. The demand side is seasonally weak. Stimulated by the "anti - involution" macro - policy, the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The tight - balance expectation of TA fundamentals is loosening. In the short term, affected by the "anti - involution" macro - policy, there are positive opportunities on the supply side, but the TA processing fee is neutral. Be cautious about going long at low levels [1]. - **Basic logic**: The supply - side device changes are relatively small recently, but new PTA devices will be put into production later, increasing the supply - side pressure. The demand side is seasonally weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The PTA fundamentals are expected to change from a tight balance to a looser situation. In the short term, there are positive factors on the supply side due to the policy, but the TA processing fee is neutral [24][25]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions on dips. TA focuses on the range of [4800 - 4880] [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still lower than the same period. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The terminal demand is in the traditional off - season, and orders continue to decline. In July, the supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the low inventory also supports the futures price. Recently, there is still positive sentiment under the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", and the market is oscillating strongly [1]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrivals and imports are still at a low level compared with the same period. Some domestic devices have restarted, while others are under maintenance or have reduced loads. Overseas, some devices have restarted, and some have maintenance plans. The weekly maintenance loss of MEG is at a high level in the same period in the past five years, the weekly operating rate has increased, and the weekly output has increased slightly. The demand side is affected by the "anti - involution" policy, and the operations of downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly different. The polyester product inventory has decreased, but the terminal weaving is still weak. The social and port inventories of MEG are at a low level compared with the same period [26][27]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low levels. EG focuses on the range of [4420 - 4580] [27][28]. Glass - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The policy expectation cools down, and the futures price fluctuates greatly [2]. - **Basic logic**: At the macro level, the market has been fermenting around the "anti - involution" policy expectation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are about to be introduced, which has reignited market sentiment, and related varieties have continued to be strong, and the price of glass has risen significantly. At the same time, the strength of coal - related varieties has led to the expectation of cost increase. The fundamentals of glass have improved, the corporate profitability has improved, the output has increased slightly, especially the corporate inventory has continued to decline to a five - month low, and the comprehensive demand for glass in the off - season has remained resilient, significantly boosting market confidence. In the short term, the futures price is boosted by the macro - policy, and the continuous inventory reduction enhances market confidence. As long as the policy expectation logic is not falsified, the price center will continue to move up. In general, the futures price fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate and production capacity sectors, the futures price may continue to rise. If the demand remains weak, supply contraction is needed to have a strong upward space. In late July, it is a period of intensive macro - policies, the macro - sentiment repair is difficult to be falsified, but the optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price fluctuates widely [30][31]. - **Strategy recommendation**: FG focuses on the range of [1170 - 1230] [31]. Soda Ash - **Core view**: Cautiously bearish. The exchange has issued a risk warning, and the price fluctuates widely [2]. - **Basic logic**: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, the trading atmosphere in the glass and coal markets has become stronger, which has boosted the industrial sentiment and driven up the futures price of soda ash. The inventory of soda ash plants has accumulated again, reaching a new historical high, but the market reaction has been calm, and the domestic spot market prices have remained stable with a slight decline. Recently, in the soda ash market, some devices are under maintenance while others are restarting. The overall supply has slightly increased, the capacity utilization rate has increased, and the soda ash output has increased. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has continued to accumulate, reaching a new historical high, and the market supply surplus pressure is heavy. The downstream support is general, with only terminal rigid - demand consumption. The short - term demand in the glass market is mediocre, some production lines in the photovoltaic glass industry have been cold - repaired, and the demand in the light - soda industry remains at a low level, maintaining a just - in - time procurement model, which has little impact on boosting the demand for soda ash. Recently, the soda ash futures price has been mainly affected by commodity sentiment fluctuations, and the fundamentals are difficult to provide sufficient driving force. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and technical operations [33][34]. - **Strategy recommendation**: The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased month - on - month. Follow the sentiment of the coal and glass futures markets. The exchange has issued a risk warning, the price fluctuates greatly, and the price falls back under the pressure of the annual line. There is a short - term callback risk. SA focuses on the range of [1280 - 1350] [2]. Caustic Soda - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish. The upstream and downstream are linked, and the price corrects from a high level [2]. - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, the current average capacity utilization rate is 84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. Some previously reduced - production or shut - down devices in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China have gradually increased their loads, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to varying degrees. In Central China, the low price of liquid chlorine has led to losses for alkali plants, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Overall, the operation is at a high level, and with the expected commissioning of new production capacity, the supply tends to be saturated. In terms of demand, the production of the main downstream product, alumina, has increased, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry in Zhejiang has been continuously low, and downstream customers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase for rigid demand. In May, the export scale shrank, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.16%. In terms of cost and profit, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, the subsidy for liquid chlorine has decreased, and the overall profit of the chlor - alkali industry has shown an upward trend. Currently, the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 408,400 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.5%. In general, the weekly supply - demand fundamentals have weakened, the device maintenance has returned, the macro - policy expectation has cooled down, the alumina futures price has corrected, the subsidy for liquid