Group 1: Report's Core View - Trump's copper import tariff policy changed unexpectedly, causing COMEX copper to plummet by over 20%. The Fed's hawkish stance weakened the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded. The Politburo meeting did not meet the market's expectations of strong stimulus policies. Affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, China's July manufacturing PMI declined, and market sentiment turned cautious. Fundamentally, there is a co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. During the off - season of demand, inventories at home and abroad have increased, dragging down copper prices. In the short term, Shanghai copper is under pressure and falling to test the support of the lower moving average. It is recommended that new speculators wait for the callback and go long at a low price (77,500 - 78,000). Upstream industrial enterprises should wait for the rebound and sell hedging at a high price to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, copper is still optimistic as an important strategic metal in the Sino - US game. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 80,000], and for LME copper is [9,500, 9,900] US dollars/ton [6][58]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Situation US Policy and Dollar Index - Trump announced a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, but excluded core upstream products such as electrolytic copper and copper concentrate. COMEX copper plummeted by 20%. The Fed's hawkish stance after the July interest rate meeting completely dispelled the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The probability of a September interest rate cut dropped from 65% to 45%. The US dollar index rebounded to 100, with a monthly increase of 3.5%, putting pressure on copper prices [8][11]. China's Economic Data - The Politburo meeting on July 30 did not introduce strong stimulus policies, and the market's expectations were dashed. Affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4. The LPR for 1 - year and 5 - year loans remained unchanged, and the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut policy restricted China's monetary policy space. Market risk appetite declined [14]. Group 3: Shanghai Copper Supply and Demand Analysis Supply Side - In 2025, global copper mines faced continuous disruptions, and copper smelting capacity expanded, leading to a shortage of copper raw materials and record - low copper processing fees. In June, China imported 2349700 tons of copper concentrate, a year - on - year increase of 1.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June, the cumulative import of copper concentrate was 14.777 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.23%. The sample smelting start - up rate of the electrolytic copper industry in July was 88.19%, a month - on - month increase of 2.43%. In June, the domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. It is estimated that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will increase by 15500 tons month - on - month and 122200 tons year - on - year [31][35]. Demand Side - From January to June, power grid engineering investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. New energy vehicle production was 6.872 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. However, from July to August, affected by high - temperature and flood disasters, it was the traditional off - season for terminal consumption, and the start - up rate of downstream copper products declined. In June, the start - up rate of copper product enterprises was 63.08%, and the copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [38]. Inventory - During the off - season of demand, overseas inventories increased. COMEX copper inventory increased by 45776 tons to 257900 tons, and LME copper inventory increased by 46950 tons to 138200 tons. As of July 31, China's electrolytic copper social inventory was 119300 tons, a decrease of 12500 tons from the beginning of the month, and the SHFE copper inventory was 73423 tons, a decrease of 11166 tons from the beginning of the month [45]. Group 4: Monthly Summary and Outlook Market Situation - Macroscopically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, the US dollar index rebounded, and the US copper import tariff policy deviated from market expectations. Domestically, the Politburo meeting did not introduce strong stimulus policies, and market risk appetite declined. Fundamentally, in the short term, the contradiction in copper supply and demand lies in inventory accumulation during the off - season and inventory return pressure. In the medium term, it is the co - existence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. In the long term, it is the uncertainty of demand caused by global trade wars and Sino - US confrontation versus the explosive demand for copper in green power and new energy vehicles [57]. Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai copper is under pressure and falling. It is recommended that new speculators wait for the callback and go long at a low price (77,500 - 78,000). Upstream industrial enterprises should wait for the rebound and sell hedging at a high price. In the long term, copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 80,000], and for LME copper is [9,500, 9,900] US dollars/ton [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bullish view on lithium carbonate [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market is influenced by the "anti-involution" concept, with a stark contrast between strong expectations and weak reality. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi has become a focal point of market speculation. Overseas imports have declined for two consecutive months, alleviating the overall supply-side pressure. Although the fundamental changes are lagging and July was in a surplus and inventory accumulation pattern, the upstream inventory has gradually shifted to the intermediate links driven by the positive feedback between futures and spot markets. The market is gradually returning to rationality. Currently, the production schedule of cathode factories in August has slightly increased. If there are production cuts or suspensions in Jiangxi lithium mines, there may be a slight shortage of lithium carbonate, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Overall, there are no obvious negative fundamental disturbances, and it is difficult for prices to experience a trend decline. Attention should be paid to the issue of mining licenses in the future [78] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, lower than the expected and previous value of 49.7, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity compared to the previous month. The production index and new order index were 50.5% and 49.4% respectively, down 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The Politburo meeting set the tone for the economic work in the second half of the year, with the main core content focusing on "implementing and refining", "boosting consumption", and "governing disorderly competition". The introduction of incremental policies was relatively limited, and strongly expected varieties saw significant corrections. The impact of Sino-US tariffs has gradually weakened. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and Powell did not give a clear indication of a rate cut in September, still believing that tariffs and inflation are full of uncertainties, which cooled the market's expectation of a rate cut in September [3] Supply Side - The estimated output of lithium carbonate in July was about 85,000 tons, a slight increase from the previous month. In July, the futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate rose in tandem, and the hedging profit on the futures market stimulated the resumption of production by previously reduced or suspended production enterprises. China imported 17,700 tons of lithium carbonate in June, a 16% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year decline. As of July 25, the output of lithium carbonate was 18,548 tons, a week-on-week increase of 235 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 45.18%, a week-on-week increase of 0.57 percentage points [3][13] Demand Side - According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 789,000 units, a 15% year-on-year increase but a 17% month-on-month decrease compared to the same period last July. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 54.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year reached 6.258 million units, a 31% year-on-year increase. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 816,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase but a 20% month-on-month decrease compared to the same period last July. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 54.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 7.264 million units, a 35% year-on-year increase. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in six European countries in June was 220,000 units, with a cumulative year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 22% and 16% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the US in June was 110,000 units, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2% and a month-on-month decrease of 11% [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,726 tons, an increase of 3,379 tons from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 51,958 tons, a decrease of 6,932 tons from the previous month; the inventory of downstream material factories was 43,880 tons, an increase of 3,383 tons from the previous month; and the inventory in other links was 45,888 tons, an increase of 3,379 tons from the previous month. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 5,545 tons, a decrease of 17,083 tons from the previous month [4] Cost and Profit - As of July 31, the average industry cost was 62,821 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1,247 yuan/ton. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was quoted at $515/ton, a month-on-month increase of $115/ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $774/ton, a month-on-month increase of $152/ton; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,130 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 545 yuan/ton. The profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 8,459 yuan/ton, a month-on-month recovery of 9,129 yuan/ton [5] Price Overview of the Lithium Battery Industry - The prices of various lithium battery products showed different degrees of increase or decrease in July compared to June. For example, the price of 6% CIF spodumene increased by 24.34% to $774/ton, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.65% to 69,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.86% to 68,000 yuan/ton [6] Market Review in July - As of July 31, the LC2509 contract closed at 68,280 yuan/ton, a 9.67% increase from the previous month. The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 69,000 yuan/ton, a 12.7% increase from the previous month, and the basis changed from a large discount to a premium. The trading volume of the main contract was 230,000 lots. In July, affected by the macro "anti-involution" expectation, the market's bullish sentiment was high. The sudden shutdown of Qinghai Salt Lake and the ongoing fermentation of the issue of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi boosted the upward trend of lithium carbonate prices. However, at the end of the month, as the meeting concluded, the market trading gradually returned to the fundamentals, and the price returned to a reasonable level [7] Production and Supply - As of the end of June, the national lithium carbonate production capacity was 2,148,620 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The monthly operating rate was 45.45%, a 5.29 percentage point increase from the previous month. The production in June was 80,962 tons, a 10.9% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year increase. In June, the lithium carbonate production reached a new high, exceeding 80,000 tons. Qinghai Salt Lake entered the seasonal production peak, and the overall operating rate of enterprises increased as some new production capacities were successfully put into operation. In addition, toll processing enterprises resumed production by reducing processing fees. As of July 25, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,548 tons, a week-on-week increase of 235 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 45.18%, a week-on-week increase of 0.57 percentage points [12][13] Import and Export - In June 2025, China imported 17,700 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% month-on-month and 9.6% year-on-year decrease. Among them, 11,900 tons were imported from Chile, a 11.5% month-on-month and 24.3% year-on-year decrease, and 5,094 tons were imported from Argentina, a 23.1% month-on-month decrease but a 48.3% year-on-year increase. The continuous decline in domestic imports in May and June will lead to a decrease in the arrival volume in July - August, alleviating the supply-side pressure marginally. In June 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 576,000 tons, a 4.8% month-on-month decrease, equivalent to 46,400 tons of LCE. The import volume from Australia decreased significantly, while the import volumes from Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Nigeria increased to varying degrees [17][20] Terminal Demand - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million units respectively, a 26.4% and 26.7% year-on-year increase, and a -0.2% and +1.7% month-on-month change respectively. The penetration rate was 45.8%. The new energy vehicle market continued to grow in June, benefiting from the trade-in subsidy policy and promotional activities launched by various car companies. However, due to the high penetration rate of new energy vehicles for three consecutive months, the month-on-month growth rate slowed down. In June, China's power battery loading volume was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% month-on-month and 35.9% year-on-year increase. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 10.7 GWh, a 2.0% month-on-month increase but a 3.4% year-on-year decrease; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 47.4 GWh, a 1.9% month-on-month and 49.7% year-on-year increase [27] Storage Market - According to TrendForce data, the new energy storage tender market continued to be booming in June, with the new tender volume reaching 9.05 GW/53.19 GWh, a 58%/282% year-on-year and 23%/147% month-on-month increase. The average energy storage duration was 5.9 hours. In terms of price, the average price of 2-hour energy storage systems was 0.641 yuan/Wh, a 16.55% month-on-month increase, and the highest price was 0.792 yuan/Wh. The average price was affected by some high quotes. The average price of 4-hour energy storage systems decreased by 9.75% month-on-month, reaching a record low of 0.432 yuan/Wh. The economic benefits of the energy storage market still face challenges [32] Digital Demand - In the second quarter of 2025, the global smartphone shipments reached 295.2 million units, a 1% year-on-year decline, the first decline in six consecutive quarters. In June, the smartphone production was 108.27 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate turning positive to 8.40%. Globally, Samsung maintained its market-leading position this quarter, accounting for 19% of the market share with its Galaxy A series. Apple ranked second, accounting for 16%, and Xiaomi performed stably this quarter, accounting for 15% of the market share. Affected by the tariff risk, the consumer electronics market remained relatively stable. Most manufacturers reduced production targets to avoid inventory backlogs, but the US market still maintained a relatively high inventory to avoid tariff uncertainties [33] Supply and Demand of Lith-ium Iron Phosphate - As of July 25, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 69,853 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 40 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 61.82%, unchanged from the previous week. This week, the production rhythm of lithium iron phosphate enterprises remained relatively stable. The demand from the power end decreased slightly, while the demand from the energy storage market drove an unexpected increase, but the increase was limited [36] Ternary System Materials - The incremental orders of ternary materials are concentrated in leading enterprises, and production is based on sales [38] Other Cathode Materials - During the off-peak season of terminal demand, the internal operating rates of other cathode materials are differentiated [46] Inventory and Cost - As of July 31, the total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry was 141,726 tons, an increase of 3,379 tons from the previous month, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 5,545 tons, a 17,083-ton decrease from the previous month. This month, the total lithium carbonate inventory continued to increase and reached a new high, but with the increase in speculative demand, the upstream inventory was transferred to the middle and downstream links. At the end of the month, the warehouse receipts faced centralized cancellation, and the decline rate of this round of warehouse receipts was significantly faster. As of July 31, the price of African SC 5% lithium ore was quoted at $515/ton, a month-on-month increase of $115/ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $774/ton, a month-on-month increase of $152/ton; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,130 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 545 yuan/ton. The ore price closely followed the lithium salt price, the auction transaction prices of overseas mines were generally high, the market trading recovered, and traders accelerated shipments [54][56] Cost and Profit Analysis - As of July 25, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 62,821 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 865 yuan, and the industry profit was 8,459 yuan/ton, a week-on-week recovery of 5,193 yuan. This week, the raw material price increased rapidly, with a涨幅 exceeding 10%, providing some support for the lower price of lithium carbonate. The futures price was greatly affected by the policy side, and the bullish sentiment of funds was strong. After the synchronous increase of futures and spot prices, the industry profit recovered rapidly. As of July 25, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 61,221 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 79 yuan, and the industry profit was 353 yuan/ton, a week-on-week recovery of 858 yuan. This week, the strong price increase of lithium carbonate and raw materials drove the bullish sentiment in the lithium hydroxide market. The price of lithium hydroxide ended the downward trend and continued to increase, and the industry profit recovered. As of July 25, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 34,402 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1,188 yuan/ton, and the loss was 932 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The rapid increase in the price of raw material lithium carbonate led to an increase in the quotation of material factories, but the pricing power still lies with downstream battery cell factories, and the price increase was limited. Material factories mainly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and the procurement sentiment was not high. The cost transmission from the upstream was blocked, and the profit space of downstream industries was under pressure [60][62][65] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply-demand gap of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025. The overall supply and demand situation is relatively complex, with fluctuations in production, imports, and demand in different months, and the inventory also shows corresponding changes [77] Views and Strategies - The market is gradually returning to rationality. Currently, the production schedule of cathode factories in August has slightly increased. If there are production cuts or suspensions in Jiangxi lithium mines, there may be a slight shortage of lithium carbonate, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Overall, there are no obvious negative fundamental disturbances, and it is difficult for prices to experience a trend decline. Attention should be paid to the issue of mining licenses in the future. The unilateral strategy is to participate in long positions at low prices, with a reference range of [65,000, 77,000]. In the long term, the market remains in a surplus pattern, and production enterprises can conduct hedging on the futures market when the price rebounds according to their own profit levels [78][79]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report holds a cautiously bearish view on the steel market in August [4]. 2. Core View - In July, the black - series market was dominated by the "anti - involution" theme, but towards the end of the month, market sentiment cooled, and the trading logic may shift to supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is stable due to profit support, while the demand is weak, and it is difficult for exports to maintain strength. Therefore, the market is likely to decline rather than rise [3][4]. - For August, it is advisable to short at high prices, and industrial customers can hedge. Also, one can consider building a long - rebar and short - hot - rolled coil position [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - In July, the market was led by the "anti - involution" theme. After relevant policies were announced, coking coal drove the black - series up. However, at the end of the month, the market回调 due to the lack of incremental stimulus policies and poor PMI performance. In July, the main contract of rebar rose 6.9%, hot - rolled coil rose 8.6%, iron ore rose 8.9%, coke rose 14%, and coking coal rose 26.7% [8]. 3.2. Money and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally continued to rise, and the M1 - M2 gap kept expanding. In June, RMB loans increased significantly to 2.24 trillion, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 slightly decreased [11]. 3.3. Price Index - In June, CPI was 0.1 with little change, and PPI was - 3.6, down 0.3 from May, indicating a deflationary environment. In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 month - on - month, lower than market expectations [14]. 3.4. Monthly Steel Data - In the first half of 2025, crude steel production decreased by 3% year - on - year. Pig iron production decreased by 0.8%, with a smaller decline than crude steel, suggesting a lower proportion of scrap steel in the converter process. Steel exports increased significantly, with an increase of 4750000 tons in steel exports and 4420000 tons in billet exports [15]. 3.5. Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of August 1, 2025, the cumulative year - on - year data of production and apparent consumption of the five major steel products were basically in line, indicating a relatively balanced supply - demand situation. Inventories were lower than the same period last year [16][17]. 3.6. Steel Production - Since this year, steel mills have had good profits and high production enthusiasm. Production is expected to remain stable, unlike the significant decline in the same period last year [20]. 3.7. Steel Production Profit - Currently, blast furnace profits are generally good, with a production profit of 200 - 300 yuan/ton for rebar and hot - rolled coil. Electric - arc furnace profits have improved, with valley - electricity operations basically profitable and flat - electricity operations near the break - even point [21]. 3.8. Steel Demand - The demand side is relatively weak. Construction steel transactions have remained at around 100000 tons without improvement. Real estate data shows that future housing construction demand is difficult to improve significantly. Fixed - asset investment growth has slowed down, and infrastructure investment growth has also declined. Although the issuance of special local bonds is expected to accelerate in the third quarter, the impact on physical volume is limited [42][46][55]. 3.9. Steel Export - With the rise of domestic steel prices, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed, export profits have decreased significantly, and future exports may be negatively affected [67]. 3.10. Steel Inventory - During the July price increase, the rebar basis changed little and even increased slightly for the October contract. The hot - rolled coil basis continued to decline. The rebar 10 - 1 spread gradually decreased in July, and the hot - rolled coil 10 - 1 spread remained in a contango structure at a low level [82][85][91]. 3.11. Steel Price Spread - The spot spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil has weakened, while the futures spread has reached a relatively high level this year, showing a certain divergence. Considering the unfavorable export situation, one can consider building a long - rebar and short - hot - rolled coil position [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - In August, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, leading to a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Prices are likely to fluctuate and trend weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the futures and spot prices of iron ore fluctuated and trended strongly. As of July 30, the futures price of the main contract increased by 73.5 yuan/ton month - on - month [5]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Mainstream Mines**: The shipments of the four major mines are expected to rebound in August, with an estimated month - on - month increase of about 258.5 million tons. Vale is expected to ship 27.1 million tons in August, a month - on - month increase of 3.5 million tons; Rio Tinto is expected to ship 28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 235 million tons; BHP is expected to ship 23.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 75 million tons; FMG is expected to ship 16.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95 million tons [25][28][30]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable overall. In August, the estimated shipment is 43.2 million tons, a decrease of about 40 million tons [33]. - **Domestic Mines**: The domestic iron concentrate production in July is estimated to be 20.85 million tons, and the production in August is expected to be 21.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30 million tons [36]. - **Total Supply**: The global supply in August is expected to increase by about 248.5 million tons month - on - month [6]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: According to the statistics of Mysteel, the national pig iron production in July is estimated to be 74.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the blast furnace hot metal production is expected to be 74.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 million tons. The demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to increase slightly by 5 million tons [6][18][22]. - **Overseas Demand**: Except for China, the daily average pig iron production is decreasing. In August, the pig iron production is estimated to decrease slightly by 62,000 tons, and the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease slightly by about 10 million tons [6][21][22]. - **Global Demand**: In August, the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease by about 5 million tons globally [6][22]. 3.4 Steel Mill Profit - In July, the profits of long - and short - process steel mills reached a high level, and short - process steel mills turned losses into profits. At the end of July, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a year - on - year increase of 1.13 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a year - on - year increase of 48.49 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 2.4223 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons [9][13][15]. 3.5 Inventory - At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. In August, the inventory is expected to accumulate, but the overall inventory accumulation rate will slow down [40]. - Steel mills mainly replenish inventory as needed, with narrow inventory fluctuations and a stable inventory - to - consumption ratio [42]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Table | Date | Supply (million tons) | Demand (million tons) | Export (million tons) | Supply - Demand Surplus (million tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 01 | 127.3078 | 122.0185 | 1.7907 | 3.4987 | | 2025 - 02 | 102.2437 | 123.5627 | 2.2287 | - 23.5478 | | 2025 - 03 | 130.8431 | 126.6254 | 1.9641 | 2.2536 | | 2025 - 04 | 128.6777 | 130.4944 | 1.8359 | - 3.6526 | | 2025 - 05 | 132.3421 | 132.7831 | 2.3730 | - 2.8140 | | 2025 - 06 | 137.1990 | 126.9900 | 1.2567 | 8.9523 | | 2025 - 07 | 135.2500 | 130.6900 | 1.2600 | 3.3000 | | 2025 - 08 | 135.3800 | 130.7500 | 1.6700 | 2.9600 | | 2025 - 09 | 124.4500 | 129.7500 | 1.9600 | - 7.2600 | | 2025 - 10 | 134.7500 | 132.1000 | 1.5700 | 1.0800 | | 2025 - 11 | 128.4500 | 124.4000 | 1.5600 | 2.4900 | | 2025 - 12 | 133.3000 | 123.1000 | 1.6700 | 8.5300 | [48]

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - As the peak season enters the second half, with OPEC continuing to increase production, the oil price center is expected to move down further. In July, the main driver of crude oil was the peak - season market. The continuous inventory reduction of crude oil and refined oil in Europe and the United States supported the oil price to some extent. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's summer crude oil power generation consumed part of the increased production. Subsequently, the support from the demand side for oil prices will gradually decline, and the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. There is still room for oil prices to compress. The key price to focus on is $60, which is close to the break - even point of new US shale oil wells. The US crude oil production will be a major variable on the supply side. The focus ranges are WTI [60, 70] for the outer market and SC [450, 500] for the inner market [3][97]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The core driver of the crude oil market was the unexpected peak - season demand for diesel in Europe and the United States [10]. 2. Macroeconomics - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations, which was the fifth consecutive decision to keep the rate unchanged. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's 2025 growth rate by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% compared with the April WEO forecast, due to stronger - than - expected economic activity in China in the first half of 2025 and much lower Sino - US actual tariffs than expected in April [3]. - On July 29, the IMF released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, raising the 2025 global economic growth forecast by 0.2% to 3%, mainly because China's economic growth exceeded expectations and the Sino - US tariff level was lower than expected [21]. 3. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Supply - In June 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 219,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,723.5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production rose by 173,000 barrels per day to 935,600 barrels per day; Iraq's by 11,000 barrels per day to 394,300 barrels per day; and the UAE's by 83,000 barrels per day to 305,300 barrels per day. Kuwait's production increased by 12,000 barrels per day to 243,600 barrels per day, while Iran's decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 324,100 barrels per day, and Venezuela's rose by 2,000 barrels per day to 91,000 barrels per day [4][34][35]. - As of the week ending July 25, US crude oil production was 1,331 million barrels per day, up 41,000 barrels per day month - on - month, and the number of US oil rigs was 415, down 7 month - on - month [38]. - As of the week ending July 25, the US net crude oil imports increased. Demand - In July 2025, the EIA, OPEC, and IEA monthly reports estimated the 2025 global crude oil demand at 10,354 million barrels per day, 10,513 million barrels per day, and 10,374 million barrels per day respectively, with growth rates of 80,000 barrels per day, 129,000 barrels per day, and 70,000 barrels per day compared with 2024. The EIA and OPEC July 2025 reports estimated the 2026 global crude oil demand at 10,459 million barrels per day and 10,642 million barrels per day respectively, with growth rates of 105,000 barrels per day and 128,000 barrels per day compared with 2025 [4][42][44]. - As of the week ending July 25, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 17.3731 million tons, down 109,000 tons month - on - month. In June, the monthly crude oil imports were 49.89 million tons, up 7.40% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 279.82 million tons, up 1.57% year - on - year. The domestic refinery capacity utilization rate was 71.55%, the main refinery capacity utilization rate was 81.21%, and the Shandong local refinery capacity utilization rate was 48.16% [54][58]. Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.69 million barrels, up 7.7 million barrels; strategic crude oil inventory was 402.74 million barrels, up 240,000 barrels. US gasoline inventory was 228.41 million barrels, down 2.72 million barrels; and distillate fuel oil inventory was 113.54 million barrels, up 3.64 million barrels [62][64]. - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of the week ending July 25, China's port inventory was 28.266 million tons, up 187,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory was 2.496 million tons, up 13,000 tons [67]. 4. Spreads and Positions Spreads - WTI's inter - month spreads increased. As of July 30, WTI M1 - M2 was $1.07 per barrel, and M1 - M6 was $3.50 per barrel. Recently, Trump's pressure on Russia over the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices [80]. - The inter - month spreads of the domestic market also increased. - As of July 30, the US gasoline crack spread was $22.48 per barrel, the diesel crack spread was $31.24 per barrel, the 5:3:2 crude oil crack spread was $25.99 per barrel, and the 3:2:1 crack spread was $25.40 per barrel. The domestic refined oil crack spread remained stable [84]. Positions - Information on WTI and Brent positions was provided, but no specific data summary was given. - The SC warehouse receipt volume was at a low level, while the SC total position increased. 5. Summary - The peak season for crude oil is in the second half. As OPEC continues to expand production, the oil price center is expected to move down. In July, the peak - season market, continuous inventory reduction of crude oil and refined oil in Europe and the United States, and Saudi Arabia's summer power - generation consumption of part of the increased production supported the oil price. Subsequently, the demand - side support for oil prices will gradually decline, and the supply - side pressure will increase, with room for oil price compression. The key price to watch is $60, and the US crude oil production is a major supply - side variable. The recommended trading ranges are WTI [60, 70] for the outer market and SC [450, 500] for the inner market [97]. - The report also provided various trading strategies, including futures, options, and hedging strategies, with different recommended intensities [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the products in the report are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, methanol, urea, propylene. Crude oil is recommended to hold short positions, and asphalt is rated as "Bearish" [1][2]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities, indicating that many are facing supply - demand imbalances or macro - economic pressures, leading to a generally bearish outlook. For example, geopolitical risks in the oil market are releasing, and OPEC+ production increases are putting pressure on oil prices. New capacity in some chemical products is expected to increase supply, while demand is seasonally weak [1][6]. 3. Summaries Based on Commodity Categories Crude Oil - **Core View**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and oil prices have fallen. Although there are short - term geopolitical and macro - economic positives, from a supply - demand perspective, OPEC+ production increases are gradually releasing pressure, and the peak season is in the second half, with the oil price center still having room to decline. The US 5 - month crude oil production increased, and commercial and strategic oil reserves also changed [6][7]. - **Strategy**: For the 10 - contract, short positions can be established, and call options can be bought to protect the position. If short positions are already held, it is recommended to continue holding. Pay attention to the range of 520 - 530 yuan for SC [8]. LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are oscillating, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the August CP contract price. The LPG's own fundamentals are okay, but the cost end is the main drag. Supply has increased slightly, and demand from some downstream industries has decreased. Inventory has changed, with port inventory increasing and refinery inventory decreasing [11]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the range of 3950 - 4050 yuan for PG [12]. L (Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Most devices have recently restarted, increasing supply pressure. The basis and monthly spreads are at low levels compared to the same period. Social inventory has been accumulating for 5 weeks, and the fundamentals are weak. There are plans to put new capacity into production in August [18]. - **Strategy**: Industrial customers can sell - hedge at an appropriate time, and short positions can be established on the far - month contracts. Pay attention to the range of 7200 - 7500 yuan for L [18]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment has cooled. Although there are high - level maintenance in the short - term, the production capacity pressure in the third quarter is high. New capacity is planned to be released in August, and domestic demand is at the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons, with weak downstream restocking power. Inventory has started to accumulate, and high production restricts the rebound space [25]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on the far - month contracts or a 9 - 1 monthly positive spread can be established. Pay attention to the range of 7050 - 7200 yuan for PP [25]. PVC - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: The market has returned to weak fundamentals, and the futures price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average. New devices have reached full - load production, and there are few maintenance plans in August. It is the off - season for both domestic and foreign demand, and social inventory has been accumulating for 6 weeks, with the supply - demand pattern expected to continue to accumulate inventory in August [31]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of 5000 - 5120 yuan for V [31]. PX - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and PX inventory is declining but still relatively high. PXN is not low, and there is no macro - economic upside surprise at the end of July. The probability of a September interest rate cut has decreased, and overnight crude oil has weakened [1]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pull - backs, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of 6800 - 6920 yuan for PX [37]. PTA - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Recent device changes are relatively small, but new PTA devices are expected to be put into production, increasing supply - side pressure. Demand is seasonally weak, and the fundamentals are expected to shift from a tight balance to a looser state. The cost support has weakened [40]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions; pay attention to the possibility of expanding the PTA processing fee; sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 4720 - 4800 yuan for TA [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1]. - **Logic**: Domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their loads. The arrival and import volumes are low compared to the same period, but the inflection point is approaching. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders are continuously declining. Although the supply - demand was in a tight balance in July, low inventory supports the price, but the macro - economic situation is not favorable [44]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 4360 - 4430 yuan for EG [45]. Glass - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Politburo meeting policies did not exceed expectations, and the manufacturing PMI declined and was below the boom - bust line, suppressing the commodity market sentiment. Production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and inventory has decreased for 6 weeks, mainly due to inventory transfer rather than terminal consumption. As the delivery month approaches, the market focus shifts from expectations to fundamentals [49]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of 1090 - 1150 yuan for FG [50]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled, and short - selling funds have increased. The overall production of soda ash has slightly decreased, and the inventory of soda ash plants has decreased for the third week but is still at a historical high. The supply - demand surplus pattern has not significantly improved, and the fundamentals are bearish under the background of high supply and high inventory. The market logic has shifted from macro - policy expectations to the industrial fundamentals [54]. - **Strategy**: Wait patiently for the price to pull back [54]. Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Due to summer device maintenance, industry start - up has declined. Some downstream alumina plants have resumed production, and alumina production and capacity utilization have increased. Caustic soda supply and demand are balanced, but inventory is high compared to the same period, and there is no obvious fundamental driver for the futures price. Macro - policy expectations have cooled, and the downstream alumina futures price has pulled back [59]. - **Strategy**: Adjust the operation cycle to be shorter [59]. Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Domestic and foreign methanol devices have increased their loads, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase. In August, port methanol is expected to start the inventory accumulation cycle. Demand is relatively good, but traditional demand has declined. Social inventory is low overall, but the trend is to accumulate. The cost support is stable [62]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of 2370 - 2420 yuan for MA [63]. Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: Urea device start - up remains high, and production pressure is not reduced. Domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and factory inventory has increased, but exports are relatively good, and port inventory has decreased. The domestic urea fundamentals are still relatively loose, and there is no macro - economic upside surprise [2]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions in batches, short positions can be established on rallies. Urea has a wide - range oscillation, and double - selling options can be used. Pay attention to the range of 1705 - 1735 yuan for UR [2]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The cost - end oil price has room to compress, and raw material supply is sufficient. Supply has increased while demand has decreased, inventory has accumulated, and the current cracking spread is at a high level, with over - valuation [2]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions with a light position. Pay attention to the range of 3600 - 3700 yuan for BU [2]. Propylene - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2]. - **Logic**: The August propane CP quotation has decreased, weakening cost support. The spot decline has slowed down, and the futures price is closing the basis. PDH start - up has continued to rise, and factory inventory is at a high level and accumulating. PP powder start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, and demand support is insufficient [2]. - **Strategy**: Short positions can be established on rebounds, hold the 1 - 2 monthly reverse spread, and go long on the PP futures processing fee. Pay attention to the range of 6450 - 6600 yuan for PL [2].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 观望 | 供需方面，螺纹产量基本持平，需求环比回落，库存有所上升。铁水产量 | | | | 环比略降，绝对水平仍高。淡季中供需因素权重下降，市场情绪降温后或 | | | | 区间运行，短线或有反弹，但对上方高度不宜过分乐观。【3190，3250】 | | 热卷 | 观望 | 热卷产量、表需小幅回升，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷 | | | | 出口利润回落明显，后期出口或受一定影响。市场失望情绪释放后或有短 | | | | 线反弹，观望为宜。【3390，3450】 | | 铁矿石 | 空单持有 | 基本面看，铁水产量转降，供给端发货增到货受台风影响下降，后续发到 货预计有增量。港口钢厂库存双增。基本面中性，政治局会议阶段性不及 | | | | 预期，短期价格恐承压。【755,805】 | | | | 会议未释放刺激政策自己反内卷的增量信息，市场情绪有所降温。焦炭现 货自前期低点涨幅落后于期货，现货第五轮提涨。焦企利润仍不佳，生产 | | 焦炭 | 观望 | 积极性一般。焦炭供需总体相对平衡， ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 气候中心中性预期，且美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，预计将 | | | | 持续至 9 月底，8 月累库速度较 7 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关 | | | | 键成本支撑。本周最新中美谈判结果出炉，维持原关税率，并再展期 90 天。成本 | | | | 支撑预期下，豆粕价格下档存在支持。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑的多 | | | | 空因素交织作用下，近两周内豆粕以大区间行情对待，技术操作为主。主力【2960， | | | | 3030】 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽少部分地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国 | | | | 内市场，目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较 | | | | 高水平。7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧 | | | | 作加籽的强势。对菜粕价格构成较强支持，但不断改善的加籽进口利润对菜粕价格 | | 菜粕 | 大区间震荡 | 构成上档压力。现货市场方面， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously go long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and try to go long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Short on rebounds [1] - Lead: Bearish [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Rebound [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the gold and silver markets are affected by US inflation data and tariff negotiations, facing adjustments, but the long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged due to factors such as central bank gold purchases and loose monetary policies [1][2][3] - Copper has short - term inventory pressure due to the traditional off - season, but is bullish in the long - term because of the tight supply of copper concentrates and the increasing demand from the new energy industry [1][7][8] - Zinc is under short - term pressure due to the off - season and increasing supply, and is recommended to short on rebounds in the long - term as supply increases and demand decreases throughout the year [1][11][12] - Aluminum is under pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand in the off - season, and short - term rebound shorting is recommended [1][15][16] - Nickel is facing pressure due to weak downstream support and inventory accumulation, and shorting on rebounds is advised [1][19][20] - Lithium carbonate has a bearish outlook in the short - term as the fundamentals show inventory accumulation and weak demand, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [1][23][24] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US inflation data exceeds expectations, which weakens the interest - rate cut expectation, and the tariff risk fades, causing the gold and silver markets to face adjustments [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US - Mexico tariff negotiation is postponed, US data reduces the interest - rate cut expectation, and global gold demand continues to grow. In the short - term, the tariff risk fades, but in the long - term, the long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 760 for gold in the short - term. For silver, wait for it to stop falling and stabilize before going long as its long - term fundamentals are positive [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and falls back, testing the support at the 78,000 level [7] - **Industry Logic**: In the short - term, the contradiction lies in the inventory accumulation in the off - season and the inventory return pressure. In the medium - term, there is a co - existence of tight supply of copper concentrates and high production of electrolytic copper. In the long - term, there is uncertainty in demand due to trade wars and the potential demand explosion in the new energy field [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the tariff adjustment, COMEX copper plummets, and Shanghai copper is under pressure. Wait for copper to fully adjust before lightly going long. In the long - term, be bullish on copper [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates narrowly at a low level [11] - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is loose, and domestic refined zinc production increases. The demand is weak in the off - season [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the macro - sentiment fades, zinc returns to its fundamentals. Short - term pressure causes it to fall back and consolidate at a low level. Partially take profit on previous short positions, and short on rebounds in the long - term [12] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure and weak, and alumina prices fall back [14] - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory accumulates and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, the supply - demand pattern is loose [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on short - term rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the inventory accumulation progress in the off - season [16] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure and weaken, while stainless steel rebounds slightly [18] - **Industry Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines falls, and domestic nickel supply - demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Stainless steel production cuts weaken, and there is still over - supply in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduces positions for four consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a drop of over 4% [22] - **Industry Logic**: The total inventory continues to accumulate, but the price increase transfers inventory from upstream to intermediate links. There are risks in Jiangxi's lithium mining licenses, and the market is volatile [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the speculative atmosphere fades, short on rebounds in the range of 68,000 - 70,500 [24]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 本次会议未释放增量刺激信息，也未重申反内卷政策，市场略显失望。供 | | | | 需方面，螺纹供需相对平衡，铁水产量绝对水平仍高。行情整体进入高位 | | | | 波动，短线或有回落。【3250，3300】 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量、表需小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷 | | | | 出口利润回落明显，后期出口或受一定影响。月底会议未释放进一步限制 | | | | 供给的增量信息，市场情绪略显失望，行情短线偏空。【3420，3480】 | | 铁矿石 | 空单持有 | 基本面看，铁水产量转降，供给端发货增到货受台风影响下降，后续发到 货预计有增量。港口钢厂库存双增。基本面中性，政治局会议阶段性不及 | | | | 预期，短期价格恐承压。【760，810】 | | | 谨慎看空 | 会议未释放刺激政策自己反内卷的增量信息，市场情绪有所降温。焦炭现 | | | | 货自前期低点涨幅落后于期货，现货进入第五轮提涨。焦企利润 ...