1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of wide - range fluctuation. Supply continues to increase, but terminal demand is strong, evidenced by the reduction in total inventory. Prices are supported in the short - term and are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - The State Council plans to conduct comprehensive reform pilot projects on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. China's August PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year, with the previous value at - 3.6%, and the month - on - month change turned flat from a 0.2% decline last month. August CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year, with the previous value at 0%, and the month - on - month change was flat. China's exports in August increased by 4.4% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 1.3%. US inflation was in line with expectations, with August CPI increasing by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The August core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, with a downward revision of 911,000. The market is pricing in three interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged [3]. 3.2 Supply - side - This week, lithium carbonate production continued to increase, reaching over 20,000 tons weekly and hitting a new high for the year. The significant increase in spodumene production offset the reduction in mica and salt lake production. As of September 12, lithium carbonate production was 21,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 250 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 48.64%, a week - on - week increase of 0.58% [4][9]. 3.3 Demand - side - From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 181,000 units, a 3% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period last September and a 1% decrease compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 59.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.752 million units, a 25% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 179,000 units, a 5% year - on - year increase compared to the same period last September and a 12% increase compared to the previous month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 58.1%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 9.122 million units, a 33% year - on - year increase [4]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore decreased. The African SC 5% was quoted at $610 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $800 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 2,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 12, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 65,367 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,830 yuan, and the industry profit was 7,809 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 920 yuan [4][48][50]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of September 11, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 138,512 tons, a decrease of 1,580 tons compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 36,213 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,262 tons. The total lithium carbonate inventory continued to decline, the smelter inventory decreased rapidly, and the downstream material factories continued to replenish their stocks [5][33]. 3.6 Market Outlook - This week, the new quotes for battery - grade lithium carbonate mostly fluctuated around the flat - water level, the basis strengthened, and the large - discount supplies decreased compared to the previous period. Lithium salt factories still had a price - holding sentiment, and most of the spot orders were pre - sold. The restocking enthusiasm of downstream material factories was fair, and market circulation improved. Overall, lithium carbonate production continued to increase, but the total inventory also decreased synchronously, indicating strong terminal demand. Prices are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short - term [5]. 3.7 Price List of the Lithium - battery Industry - The prices of most products in the lithium - battery industry decreased this week. For example, the 6% CIF spodumene price was $800 per ton, a 3.61% decrease compared to last week; the battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 71,000 yuan per ton, a 3.4% decrease compared to last week. However, some products such as the 523 ternary material and 523 ternary precursor saw price increases [6]. 3.8 Market Review - As of September 12, LC2511 closed at 71,160 yuan per ton, a 4.2% decrease compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan per ton, a 3.4% decrease compared to last week, and the basis changed from a premium to a slight discount. The main contract position was 3.09 million. The main contract mostly declined this week. The news of Ningde's resumption of production had a negative impact on market sentiment [7]. 3.9 Production of Other Products - As of September 12, the production of lithium hydroxide was 5,235 tons, a week - on - week increase of 115 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 36.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. The production of lithium iron phosphate was 78,307 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 68.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2% [11][14]. 3.10 Downstream Inventory - As of September 12, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 49,550 tons, an increase of 1,350 tons compared to last week. The finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly, and the industry was in a situation of strong supply and demand [37]. 3.11 Cost - side - As of September 12, the African SC 5% was quoted at $610 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $800 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 2,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. Lithium ore prices fluctuated around lithium salt prices, with low spot circulation [48]. 3.12 Profit of Other Products - As of September 12, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 68,514 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 938 yuan, and the industry profit was 6,600 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 184 yuan. The production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 34,362 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 573 yuan per ton, and it was in a loss state of 943 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week [53][56].

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 PTA ★ 谨慎看空 加工费整体偏低，新装置投产预期叠加前期检修装置复产，开工负荷略有 提升，供应端压力有所增加；市场存"金九银十"消费旺季预期，需求端 略显偏好，下游聚酯及终端织造开工负荷持续回升。9 月 pta 供需紧平衡 预期四季度宽松，叠加美联储 9 月降息概率增加，地缘风险尚未解除，市 场风险偏好提升。OPEC+9 月按计划增产，油价震荡偏弱。基差偏弱，但 TA 加工费整体偏低，关注做扩加工费机会。策略：空单谨持，关注做扩 PTA 加工费机会。 乙二醇 ★ 谨慎看空 国内装置略微降负、海外装置变动不大，到港及进口相对较低；市场仍存 消费旺季预期，下游聚酯及终端织造开工负荷持续回升。同时乙二醇库存 整体偏低，对盘面价格有所支撑。9 月累库压力不大。乙二醇库存整体偏 低，对盘面价格有所支撑。近期市场交易新装置投产预期（久泰新材料近 期投产、裕龙石化 9 月底前投产），区间震荡偏弱，谨慎看空。策略：空 单持有，关注逢高布空机会。 甲醇 ★ 谨慎看空 本周整体检修量有所提升，开工负荷下滑但依旧维持高位；海外甲醇装置 负荷再次提升且处于同期高位，与此同时，甲醇月度到港量亦处近五年同 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆地区未来十五天降雨低于正常水平。本周豆粕库存继续累库，周二美豆优良率 | | 豆粕 | | 虽有环比下降，但低于市场预期。周六 USDA 公布 9 月供需报告，美豆产量及期末 | | | 短线整理趋弱 | 库存环比调增。但全球大豆期末库存环比调降。报告对美豆略偏空。隔夜美豆受报 | | ★ | | 告影响波动较大，最终收涨。由于美豆收获临近，叠加国内短期供应充足，市场看 | | | | 多追多谨慎对待，注意仓位控制及风控管理。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。上周中加会晤后，尚未 | | 菜粕 | | 有新的进展出现。中方延期对加籽的反倾调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日， | | ★ | 短线整理 | 但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关 | | | | 注中加近期会议结果。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 | | 棕榈油 | | 望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。美国议员提交法案反对将小型 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Silver: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Copper: ★★, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Zinc: ★, expected to rebound, recommended to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [1] - Lead: ★, expected to rebound [1] - Tin: ★, price stabilizing [1] - Aluminum: ★★, price trending stronger [1] - Nickel: ★, expected to rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, bullish view [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year. Gold, silver, and copper are supported by multiple factors and are recommended for long - term strategic allocation and short - term long positions. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook in the long term, suitable for short - selling on rebounds. Other metals also show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year. Gold has support due to short - term geopolitical variables and long - term global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: US consumer confidence data is weak, economic growth is downgraded, and major central banks will announce interest rate decisions. Gold may break through to new highs in the short term and enter a long - term bull market. Silver has strong fundamentals with positive policies, high demand, and limited supply [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions for gold and silver are recommended. Gold should be monitored if it fails to break through the high of 842. Silver has support around 9800. Long - term upward trends for both remain unchanged [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly and stood above the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, processing fees are deeply inverted, and production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to pick up, and social inventory is at a low level, resulting in a tight balance between supply and demand throughout the year [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the expected Fed interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand factors, it is recommended to hold long positions in copper. Long - term optimism is maintained due to strategic resource status and green demand [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. Demand is expected to improve in the peak season, but downstream purchases are based on rigid needs [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although the Fed is likely to cut interest rates and LME zinc is strong, more macro - micro resonance is needed for further upward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rebound, while alumina was under pressure [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. Production increased slightly in August, and inventory decreased. The demand side shows a peak - season effect. For alumina, bauxite supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise start - up rates [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized and rebounded, and stainless steel showed a slight rebound [16] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is a supply - demand differentiation within the domestic nickel industry chain, with high pressure on refined nickel supply and tightness in the nickel sulfate segment. For stainless steel, inventory is decreasing, but there is pressure on terminal digestion [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take small long positions in nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high with a slight increase [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply continues to increase, while terminal demand is strong. Total inventory is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom, resulting in short - term wide - range oscillation [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see within the range of [70700 - 72100] [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [3] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [3] 2. Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and oil prices are trending downward. Short positions should be held [1]. - LPG: Cost - end drags, and there is pressure on the upside. Light - position short attempts are recommended [1]. - L: Short - position trend continues. Wait for a pullback to try long positions [1]. - PP: Short - position trend continues. Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks [1]. - PVC: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand. Be cautious about short - chasing [1]. - PX: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose. Hold short positions and sell call options [1]. - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose in Q4. Hold short positions and expand processing margins on pullbacks [2]. - MEG: Supply - demand is in a tight - balance, but cost support is weakening. Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities [2]. - Methanol: Fundamentals are weak, but look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels [2]. - Urea: Domestic fundamentals are loose. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities on the 01 contract [2]. - Asphalt: High valuation and weak cost - end. Hold short positions [3]. - Glass: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend. Observe the market [3]. - Soda ash: Short - term fundamentals are less negative. Short - term bullish, medium - to long - term bearish [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI down 2.86%, Brent down 1.66%, and SC up 0.68% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks are controllable; OPEC+ plans to increase production in October; US oil consumption peak season ends, and demand support weakens. There is a high probability that prices will be pushed down to around $60 in the medium - to long - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: IEA expects 2025 supply to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day; OPEC+ production in August was 42.4 million barrels per day. OPEC predicts 2025 global oil demand growth of 1.29 million barrels per day. As of September 5, US commercial crude and refined product inventories increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the $60 break - even point for new shale oil wells. SC focus range is [470 - 490] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 11, the PG main contract closed at 4453 yuan/ton, up 0.36% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream crude oil has supply - demand imbalance, and LPG is pressured on the upside. Supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight increase in inventory [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PG focus range is [4400 - 4500] [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7209 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 29.0% [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the short - position trend continues. Production is expected to recover next week, and the demand side is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pullback to try long positions. L focus range is [7150 - 7250] [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6939 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is insufficient. Production is expected to decline this week, and downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks. PP focus range is [6900 - 7000] [22]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4847 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.0% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation. Production is expected to decline next week [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - chasing. V focus range is [4800 - 4900] [27]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, and demand is weak but expected to improve. Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options. PX511 focus range is [6680 - 6785] [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, while demand is showing signs of recovery. TA processing margins are low [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and expand PTA processing margins on pullbacks. TA01 focus range is [4670 - 4720] [35]. MEG - **Market Review**: On September 5, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, and inventory is low. Cost support is weakening [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities. EG01 focus range is [4255 - 4300] [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the methanol spot price in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels. MA01 focus range is [2370 - 2400] [42].

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3092 | ー17 | 热卷01 | 3334 | -8 | | 螺纹05 | 3145 | -11 | 热卷05 | 3340 | -6 | | 螺纹10 | 3006 | ー17 | 热卷10 | 3372 | -5 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2990 | 0 | 张家港废钢 | 2080 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3170 | 0 | 热卷： 天津 | 3320 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3220 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3380 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3240 | -10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3410 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3260 | -20 | 热卷:广州 | 3370 | O | | 螺纹:成都 | 3260 | -10 | 热卷:成都 | 3520 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 美国 CPI 数据符合预期，降息预期强化，另外地缘局势升级扩大中，黄金有支撑。中 | | 黄金 | 多单持有 | 长期主要国家政策双宽松，地缘格局重塑，央行继续买黄金，黄金资产配置需求强 | | ★★ | | 烈。长期黄金继续战略配置。短期谨防衰退忧虑交易 | | | | 降息预期和对经济前景不确定性共同作用，白银高位震荡。白银自身由于双宽政策 | | 白银 | 多单持有 | 积极，中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化，使得需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，供需 | | ★★ | | 缺口明显，白银向上趋势不变。短期关注美元流动性风险 | | | | 美国 CPI 数据符合预期，美就业数据疲软，美联储降息几乎板上钉钉，中东地缘风险 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 激增，美元指数走弱，金九银十旺季预期叠加供应或边际收敛，建议铜前期多单继 | | ★ | | 续持有，中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪回暖，伦锌走强，带动沪锌止跌反弹，但继续上行需要更多宏微共 | | 锌 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Short - term Rebound**: Bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have a short - term rebound. However, for bean meal, due to the approaching US soybean harvest and sufficient domestic short - term supply, chasing the upward trend should be treated with caution. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of bean meal, and the outcome of recent China - Canada meetings should be monitored [1][5]. - **Short - term Decline and Adjustment**: Palm oil and soybean oil are in a short - term decline and adjustment phase. Although the biodiesel policy in the US has encountered obstacles, the biodiesel fundamentals remain unchanged, and opportunities for long positions after the adjustment should be watched for [1]. - **Short - term Adjustment**: Rapeseed oil is in a short - term adjustment. With high inventory, weak market transactions, and unclear fundamentals, its price mainly fluctuates with competing oils. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada negotiations and the follow - up of US biodiesel policies [1]. - **Cautious Bearish**: Cotton and red dates are cautiously bearish. Cotton has a supply shortage before the new cotton is fully on the market, but demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" is not ideal. Red dates are expected to have a reduced output in 2025/26, but the reduction is likely to be less than in 2023/24, and there is still pressure considering carry - over inventory [1]. - **Cautious Bullish**: For live pigs, in the short - term, supply pressure is strong, but in the medium - to long - term, capacity is gradually being reduced. With the recovery of demand, a pattern of both supply and demand booming is expected in the future, and the futures price may rise slightly during the autumn and winter consumption peak [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Bean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3063.14 yuan/ton, down 5.72 yuan or 0.19% [3]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 966.1 million tons, up 60.5 million tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 731.7 million tons, up 34.85 million tons or 5.00% from last week. The bean meal inventory was 113.62 million tons, up 5.74 million tons or 5.32% from last week [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA will release the September supply - demand report on Saturday, with a risk of lower US soybean yield. The fundamentals are temporarily bullish, but with the approaching harvest and sufficient domestic supply, chasing the upward trend should be cautious [1][5]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2567 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan or 1.34% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2693.68 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 5, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 10.1 million tons, down 2.8 million tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The China - Canada trade negotiation is ongoing, and the impact of China - Australia rapeseed trade is limited. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of bean meal, and the outcome of recent China - Canada meetings should be watched [1][8]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9330 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan or 0.93% from the previous day. The national average price was 9258 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan or - 1.12% from the previous day [9]. - **Inventory and Export Data**: As of September 5, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 61.93 million tons, up 0.92 million tons or 1.51% from last week. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August increased by 4.18% month - on - month, and the export volume from September 1 - 10 decreased by 1.24% compared to the same period last month [9][10]. - **Market Outlook**: The US biodiesel policy has encountered obstacles, and palm oil is in a consolidation phase. However, considering the unchanged biodiesel fundamentals, opportunities for long positions after the adjustment should be watched for [1][10]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The main contract CF2601 of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13835 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price dropped 0.22% to 15260 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In the US, the non - drought rate in the cotton - growing area dropped to 45%. In Brazil, the expected total cotton output this year is 393.5 million tons. In China, the new cotton is mostly in the boll - opening stage. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 141.56 million tons. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal, and the export in August decreased [12][13][14]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile market. Before the new cotton is fully on the market, the futures price may be supported, but overall, it is cautiously bearish [1][14]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The main contract CJ2601 of red dates increased by 2.14% to 11225 yuan/ton [15][17]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The main production areas are in the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 million tons, with a reduction compared to previous years. The market inventory decreased slightly, and the demand is not obvious [17]. - **Market Outlook**: The output reduction in 2025/26 is certain, but the reduction amplitude is likely to be less than in 2023/24. There is still pressure considering carry - over inventory. It is cautiously bearish, and short - selling opportunities on rallies should be watched for [1][18]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The main contract Lh2511 of live pigs increased by 0.04% to 13320 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 13500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.37% [19][20]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In September, the planned slaughter volume increased. The number of newborn piglets from January to July increased, and the number of fertile sows decreased slightly. The demand is expected to improve marginally in the future [20]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is strong, but in the medium - to long - term, the capacity is gradually being reduced. With the recovery of demand, the futures price may rise slightly during the autumn and winter consumption peak [1][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferroalloys** - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: Supply - demand contradictions remain, and the market is running weakly. For rebar, iron - water production has a large month - on - month decline but is expected to rebound quickly later; rebar production and apparent demand both decline slightly, and inventory continues to increase. For hot - rolled coil, production and apparent demand decline month - on - month, inventory continues to increase, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure has improved, and ore prices are firm. Iron - water production has decreased significantly month - on - month due to the military parade, and attention should be paid to its recovery. Port inventories are accumulating, and short - term restocking demand from steel mills is not strong. The arrival and shipment of foreign ore have both decreased significantly, and the fundamentals have improved [1][8]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will operate in a range. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Currently, coking profits are okay, and production is expected to gradually recover later. Iron - water production has decreased month - on - month but is also expected to rebound [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: There are not many supply - demand contradictions, and it will operate in a short - term range. Affected by the military parade before, coking coal production decreased significantly month - on - month and will gradually recover later. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level, and imports are running at a high level. Iron - water production is also expected to rebound, ensuring raw material demand [1][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supply and demand are becoming looser, and prices are under pressure. For silicomanganese, weekly production has a slight decline but the absolute value is still high. The significant decline in iron - water production on the demand side puts pressure on the actual demand for alloys. For ferrosilicon, supply and demand are tending to be loose, enterprise inventories have stopped decreasing and started to increase, and warehouse receipts remain at a high level, significantly suppressing spot prices [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Price Information** - **Futures Prices**: Rebar 01 is 3109 with a decline of 14; Rebar 05 is 3156 with a decline of 14; Rebar 10 is 3023 with a decline of 14. Hot - Rolled Coil 01 is 3342 with a decline of 7; Hot - Rolled Coil 05 is 3346 with a decline of 9; Hot - Rolled Coil 10 is 3377 with no change [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Tangshan billet is 2990 with a decline of 10; Rebar in Tangshan is 3170 with a decline of 10, in Shanghai is 3230 with a decline of 10, etc. Hot - Rolled Coil in Tianjin is 3320 with a decline of 10, in Shanghai is 3380 with a decline of 10, etc [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: For example, Rebar 01: Shanghai basis is 121; RB 10 - 01 spread is - 86; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Shanghai is 150 [2]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The current stage is to verify the demand. The real estate and infrastructure are still weak, which may drag down the medium - term performance of rebar. The overall steel supply and demand tend to be loose, with limited short - term positive factors, and there is still a risk of a medium - term decline in the weak fundamentals [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Information** - **Futures Prices**: Iron Ore 01 is 802 with no change; Iron Ore 05 is 781 with no change; Iron Ore 09 is 848 with a decline of 3 [6]. - **Spot Prices**: PB powder is 799 with no change; Yangdi powder is 692 with no change; BRBF powder is 820 with a decline of 4 [6]. - **Basis and Spreads**: PB powder: 01 basis is 47; i 01 - 05 spread is 24; the ratio of RB01 to i01 is 3.86 with a decline of 0.30 [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bullish [9]. 3.3 Coke - **Price and Data Information** - **Futures Market**: Coke 1 - month contract 01 basis is 1603.0 - 119; Coke 5 - month contract is 1732.5 with an increase of 7.0; Coke 9 - month contract is 1512.5 with no change [11]. - **Spot Quotes**: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke ex - factory price is 1280 with no change; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke FOB price is 1520 with no change [11]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises is 73.1% with a decline of 0.2%; 247 steel mills' daily average iron - water production is 228.8 with a decline of 11.3 [11]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bullish [13]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price and Data Information** - **Futures Market**: Coking Coal 1 - month contract is 1117.0 with a decline of 6.5; Coking Coal 5 - month contract is 1195.0 with a decline of 10.0; Coking Coal 9 - month contract is 988.5 with an increase of 33.5 [14]. - **Spot Quotes**: Lvliang main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1%, G>75) is 1400 with no change; Mongolian 5 clean coal self - pickup price at Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1130 with a decline of 46 [14]. - **Weekly Data**: The sample coal - washing plant's开工率 is 61.5% with a decline of 0.8%; the sample coking plant's daily average coking coal inventory is 781.0 with a decline of 38.9 [14]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bullish [16]. 3.5 Ferroalloys - **Price Information** - **Futures Prices**: Silicomanganese 01 is 5854 with an increase of 16; Silicomanganese 05 is 5884 with an increase of 8; Silicomanganese 09 is 5752 with an increase of 18. Ferrosilicon 01 is [value] with an increase of 10; Ferrosilicon 05 is 5702 with an increase of 20; Ferrosilicon 09 is 5464 with an increase of 30 [18]. - **Spot Prices**: Silicomanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 2680 with no change; Ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia is 5410 with no change [18]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Silicomanganese 01: Inner Mongolia basis is 126 with a decline of 16; SF 09 - 01 spread of ferrosilicon is - 124 with an increase of 20 [18]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For silicomanganese, there is still pressure for price increases, and it should be treated with cautious bearishness. For ferrosilicon, there is still pressure for short - term price increases, and it should also be treated with cautious bearishness [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish Consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish Continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously Bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish Consolidation [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish Consolidation [3] Core Views - Crude oil prices are trending downward due to supply surplus despite a slight geopolitical boost. LPG follows the cost - side oil price rebound but has a bearish outlook. L and PP are in bearish consolidation with potential long - entry opportunities. PVC remains bearish with high inventory pressure. PX and PTA are cautiously bullish considering supply - demand and macro factors. Ethylene glycol, methanol, and urea are cautiously bearish due to supply - demand imbalances. Asphalt is bearish due to high valuation and weak cost. Glass and soda ash are in bearish consolidation with different supply - demand situations [1][2][3]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.73%, Brent up 1.66%, and SC up 0.56% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical events slightly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, and the US consumption peak season is over, leading to inventory accumulation and reduced demand support. Prices may drop to around $60 in the long - term [5]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October. US commercial crude and product inventories rose, and SPR inventory increased. China's crude imports in August were 49.492 million tons, with a 2.5% year - on - year increase in the cumulative imports from January to August [6]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 10, the PG main contract closed at 4,437 yuan/ton, up 0.54% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following the oil price, but the upstream oil has a bearish outlook due to over - supply. The supply and demand situation shows a slight change in supply and relatively stable demand [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,229 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: North China's spot price is stable, and the basis strengthens slightly. Supply pressure will ease due to increased device maintenance, and demand is supported by the peak season of shed films [17]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - entry opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7300] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,949 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices stop falling and stabilize, and the basis strengthens. Supply may decrease due to planned device maintenance, while demand is entering the peak season, and cost is supported [21]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - entry opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP [21]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,847 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts are accelerating registration, and the market is in a bearish situation with high inventory and weak demand. Export may be affected by policies [26]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about short - selling. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] for V [26]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6,781 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, while demand is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and macro factors are complex [29]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for low - entry long opportunities. Focus on the range of [6740 - 6820] for PX511 [30]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 5, PTA in East China was 4,585 yuan/ton [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is affected by device maintenance and new capacity, and demand shows signs of recovery. The supply - demand tight balance in September is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. TA processing fees are low [33]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions, look for low - entry long opportunities for TA, and opportunities to expand PTA processing fees. Focus on the range of [4670 - 4720] for TA01 [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 5, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,488 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices change little. Demand is improving, but cost support is weakening. Inventory is relatively low [37]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and look for high - entry short opportunities. Focus on the range of [4285 - 4330] for EG01 [38]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 5, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,310 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases due to the recovery of domestic and overseas devices. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening [40]. - **Strategy**: Do not short actively. Look for low - entry long opportunities for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2380 - 2410] for MA01 [41].