| . | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 美豆地区未来十五天降雨低于正常水平。本周豆粕库存继续累库，周六 USDA 将公 | | 豆粕 | 布 | 9 月供需报告，存在美豆单产调低风险。基本面暂偏多，但美豆收获临近，叠加 | | ★ | 短线止跌反弹 | 国内短期供应充足，市场追多谨慎对待，注意仓位控制及风控管理。前日国内豆粕 | | | | 小幅收涨，本周暂以反弹对待。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。上周中加会晤后，尚未 | | 菜粕 | | 有新的进展出现。中方延期对加籽的反倾调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日， | | ★ | 短线止跌反弹 | 但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，略利多。菜粕前日延续整理，走势以跟随豆粕趋势为 | | | | 主，继续关注中澳.中加后续进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 | | 棕榈油 | 短线整理 | 望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。由于 8 月马棕榈油存在继续累库预期，出口报价存在 | | ★ | | 调低风险。 ...

. | . | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 周末 ProFarmer 公布最终美豆单产调研结果，预计单产为 53 蒲式耳，小于美农 8 | | 豆粕 | | 月预计，偏利多。美豆地区未来十五天降雨低于正常水平。本周美豆优良率存在调 | | | 短线止跌整理 | 低风险。此外，上周大豆压榨量环比回落，本周豆粕库存继续累库概率下降。但美 | | ★ | | 豆收获临近叠加，国内短期供应充足，市场追多谨慎对待，注意仓位控制及风控管 | | | | 理。隔夜国内豆粕小幅收涨，反弹对待。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。上周中加会晤后，尚未 | | 菜粕 | 短线止跌整理 | 有新的进展出现。中方延期对加籽的反倾调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日， | | ★ | | 但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，略利多。菜粕前日延续整理，小幅收跌，以跟随豆粕 | | | | 趋势为主，继续关注中澳.中加后续进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且中印存在采买需求。基本面展 | | 棕榈油 | 短线调 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量环比降幅较大，但后期存在较快回升的预期。螺纹产量及表需均小幅下降，库 | | ★★ | 看空 | 存继续增加。目前处于验证需求成色阶段，房地产及基建仍然偏弱，或拖累行情中期表 | | | | 现。 | | 热卷 | 看空 | 热卷产量、表需环比下降，库存继续增加，基本面相对平稳。钢材供需整体有宽松趋势， | | ★★ | | 阶段性利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期仍有回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 铁水产量环比明显减量，低于预期，部分钢厂延期复产，关注铁水修复情况。港口累库， | | ★ | | 钢厂短期补库需求不强。外矿发货增到货降，基本面中性偏弱。矿价震荡偏弱 | | 焦炭 | | 反内卷消息未落地，市场情绪面临修复。焦炭开启第一轮提降，钢焦博弈明显。目前焦 | | ★★ | 看空 | 化利润较好，阅兵后预计产量会逐步恢复。铁水产量环比下降，后期亦有回升预期。目 前钢材终端需求仍然偏弱，负反馈预期下中期仍有走弱可能。 | | 焦煤 | | 反内卷消息未落地，市场情绪面临向下修复。前期受 ...

20250906棉系周报： 需求增量有限 关注月内新棉开秤情况 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年9月6日 周度综述：摘要 | 因素 | 性质 | 观点概览 | | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观 | 中性偏多 | 1、8月份、制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.4%、50.3%和50.5%，比上月上升0.1. | | | | 0.2和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升,我国经济景气水平总体继续保持扩张。 | | | | 2、美联储理事沃勒表示，美联储应在本月开始降息，并在未来数月内进行多次下调，但他对降息的具体节奏持开放态度，认 | | | | 为这将取决于未来的经济数据。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆认为,当前利率水平非常适合目前的经济环境，政策不应过度偏 | | | | 向于支持劳动力市场或抗击通胀。 | | 供应 | 中性偏空 | 国际方面,近期美国棉区干旱情况小幅缓解,美国优良举特稳、新棉收获临近。巴西方面,CONAB8月份数 ...

PVC周报： 基本面利多难寻，延续偏弱震荡 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 时 间 2025/9/8 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 基本面利多难寻，延续偏弱震荡 【本周概况】 行情复盘：本周V2601盘面在4846至4941区间低位震荡，振幅95点，周线结束5连阴。上周五夜盘开盘价为4907 元/吨，随后持续偏弱。周三夜盘盘面超跌反弹，触及周内高点4941，但未能企稳，随后便持续震荡下跌，周 四触及周内低点4846，距离前低仅剩100点，周五早盘受反内卷小幅带动，再度触及反弹持续拉升至收盘。全 周收在4913（较上周收盘涨6点或0.12%）。 【下周展望】 基本面利多难寻，社库持续累库，预计盘面延续偏弱震荡。宏观层面看，非农就业数据显著低于预期，商品市 场情绪转弱，黄金价格飙升。供需层面看，年内已投产170万吨新装置，多数装置已经检修过，预计秋检力度 不足，供给维持宽松格局。下周部分装置重启叠加海湾20万吨新装置投产，预计产量增加。内需持续弱势，受 反倾销税影响，预计对印度出口增速将下滑， ...

中辉期货铁合金周报 基本面与价格劈叉，空仓观望为宜 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/09/05 硅锰观点摘要 【供需分析】：供给端，周度产量止增转降，结束自5月中旬以来连续十五周增长趋势。目前北方产区开工相 对稳定，南方广西、贵州小幅复产，云南地区开工率仍维持在95%左右，日均产量处近五年同期最高水平。需 求端，本期铁水产量大幅下降，247家钢铁企业铁水日均产量228.84万吨，周环比下降11.29万吨，硅锰需求 出现回落。目前新一轮钢招已陆续展开，关注标志性钢厂定价情况。 【库存情况】：企业库存合计16.05万吨，周环比增加1.15万吨；仓单数量合计6.29万张，较上周五减少0.37 万张；交割库存（含预报）合计32.13万吨，维持下降趋势。 【成本利润】：锰矿方面，本周港口锰矿价格弱稳运行。供应端，本期三大国发运量合计94.06万吨，环比增 加10.53万吨，增量主要来自南非、澳大利亚，到货量基本同上期持平。短期疏港量虽高位回落但绝对值仍然 偏高，预计港口库存或将维持低位水平。其他成本 ...

中辉期货钢材周报 反内卷短期有提振，供需逻辑仍不乐观 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期：2025/9/5 分析师：陈为昌 中辉期货黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色板块先跌后涨，整体呈震荡走势。铁水产量下降明显，但螺纹钢及热卷等产量降幅有 限，需求仍然偏弱，暂未体现旺季特征，库存继续上升。从供需来看，市场对阅兵后复产预期较强，螺纹钢仓 单及库存均较高，对行情形成压制。周五传出将出台反内卷细则的消息，焦煤受此影响大幅拉升。消息尚未被 证实或证伪，行情因前期下行较多具有上涨冲动。 【策略建议】：行情在前期持续下行后已处于较低水平，"反内卷"消息再一次撩动市场神经，盘面借势上行。 参考前期工信部出台的钢铁行业稳增长方案，即使有细则出台，对黑色板块提振亦或有限，原料端焦煤在保供 及鼓励进口的基调下也难出台供应端明显收紧的政策。从基本面来看，目前钢材库存持续上升，供应压力在上 升，负反馈矛盾在积累。短期或受政策预期及市场情绪带动出现反弹，但随着产业矛盾升级，对上涨空间不宜 过分乐观，供需逻辑 ...

本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 碳酸锂周报： 终端旺季带动去库，碳酸锂下方存支撑 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.9.5 【宏观概况】国内证监会拟调降公募基金认购费、申购费、销售服务费率水平，壮大直销渠道。深圳市罗湖等多区放开限购，非 深户可买两套。8月非农就业增长意外降温，仅增加2.2万人，6月份的就业数据向下修正至负增长，这是自2020年以来首次出现 月度就业人数萎缩。降息预期升温，投资者押注美联储年内降息三次，9月降息50基点的概率也上升。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量继续增加，周度产量维持在2万以上。锂辉石产量大幅增加弥补云母和盐湖减量。2025年8月智利碳酸 锂出口数量为1.69万吨，环比减少19.2%，同比增加4.9%。其中出口到中国1.3万吨，环比减少4.8%，同比增加6.9%。 【需求端】乘联分会发布数据，8月新能源车市场零售107.9万辆，比去年同期增长5%，较上月同期增长9%；今年以来累计零售 753.5万辆，比去年同期增长25%。2025年8月全国新能源市场零售渗透率55.3%。全国乘用车厂家新能源批发129.2万辆，比去年 同期增长23%，较上月同期增长9%；今 ...

沪铜周报 市场静待非农数据，铜上方空间打开 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-09-05 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】美非农数据即将公布，美联储降息预期走高，铜宏微共振，重回8万关口，铜上方 空间打开，建议铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现 【策略展望】 整体而言，美非农数据即将公布，美联储降息预期走高，国内93大阅兵圆满结束，市场信心提振。 基本面上，矿供应扰动和金九银十旺季需求复苏，国内铜社会库存偏紧，铜宏微共振，震荡上行。 短期建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分可逐步逢高止盈兑现，企业卖出套保可逢高布局时机，锁定 合理利润，警惕美联储降息预期落空和需求证伪带来铜价高位回落风险。 【风险提示】 政策不及预期，需求不足，中美关系 4 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 美通胀符合预期，美联储9月降息几乎板上钉钉 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish continuation [3] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The consumption peak season in the US has ended, inventories are rising, and attention should be paid to the new OPEC+ production policy. With OPEC+ gradually increasing production, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus is rising, and there is significant downward pressure on oil prices [1][5]. - LPG is affected by the decline in the cost - end crude oil price, and the supply surplus situation persists [1]. - The cost support for L is weakening, but with the approaching of the seasonal peak season in September, the supply - demand pattern will gradually turn to a dual - strong situation [1]. - The cost - end methanol support for PP has improved, but the peak - season demand is lackluster, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose in the medium term [1]. - PVC has weak cost support, a supply - strong and demand - weak fundamental situation, and continuous inventory accumulation [1]. - For PX, the tight supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and the cost support is expected to weaken [1]. - PTA's supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, while the demand side shows signs of recovery. The tight supply - demand balance in August - September is expected to ease in the fourth quarter [2]. - MEG's supply - side pressure is expected to rise, but the demand side has positive expectations due to the consumption peak season [2]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Urea's supply is expected to be loose, but the export situation is good, and there are speculative expectations [2]. - Asphalt's cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - Glass has weak demand support, high enterprise inventories, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [3]. - Soda ash has high inventories, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 0.77%, Brent dropped 0.90%, and SC dropped 1.67% [4]. - **Basic logic**: The US crude oil consumption peak season has ended, inventories are increasing, and OPEC+ production increase is exerting pressure on oil prices. The price may fall to around $60 in the medium - long term [5]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may continue to increase production, but there is high uncertainty. Indian crude oil imports have decreased, and US crude oil inventories have increased [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of [475 - 490] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market review**: On September 4, the PG main contract closed at 4383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% [10]. - **Basic logic**: LPG's price mainly follows the cost - end crude oil price. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the cost - end still has downward potential [11]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [12]. L - **Market review**: The L01 closing price was 7225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3% [15]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support is weakening, but with the approaching of the peak season in September, the supply - demand pattern will turn better. Pay attention to inventory destocking [16]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly. Look for opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7300] for L [16]. PP - **Market review**: The PP01 closing price was 6965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.1% [19]. - **Basic logic**: Cost - end methanol support has improved, but demand is lackluster. The supply - demand pattern is loose in the medium term, but there is support at the bottom [21]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Next week, supply will decrease and demand will increase. Look for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP [21]. PVC - **Market review**: The V01 closing price was 4883 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.1% [24]. - **Basic logic**: Spot prices continue to fall, cost support is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The export situation is not optimistic [26]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Due to low - valuation support, be cautious about short - chasing. Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [26]. PX - **Market review**: The PX11 contract closed at 6878 yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, demand is weakening but with improved expectations. The tight supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and cost support is weakening [29]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of [6610 - 6720] for PX511 [30]. PTA - **Market review**: The TA01 closed at 4784 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic logic**: Recent device maintenance has led to a decline in production, but future supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand side shows signs of recovery. The tight supply - demand balance in August - September is expected to ease in the fourth quarter [33]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, it is weak. Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of [4610 - 4680] for TA01 [34]. MEG - **Market review**: The EG01 closed at 4466 yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased production, and overseas devices have little change. The supply - side pressure is expected to rise, while the demand side has positive expectations [36]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Take profits on long positions on rallies and look for opportunities to short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of [4310 - 4370] for EG01 [37]. Methanol - **Market review**: The methanol main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weakening [39]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, the upward movement cannot change the weak situation. Look for opportunities to short on rallies for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2375 - 2425] for MA01 [41]. Urea - **Market review**: The urea main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, but the export situation is good. There are speculative expectations [44]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Look for low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [44]. Asphalt - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: The cost - end oil price may decline in the medium - long term, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions [3]. Glass - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: Demand support is weak, enterprise inventories are high, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rebounds [3]. Soda ash - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: Inventories are high, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rebounds [3].