1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [3] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The consumption peak season is ending, supply surplus pressure is rising, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical risks are still uncertain, and there is disturbance support for oil prices [1]. - LPG: Valuation is repaired, the cost side is weakening, and it is under short - term pressure [1]. - L: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The seasonal peak season in September is approaching, and there is an expectation of fundamental improvement [1]. - PP: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The supply is under pressure in the future, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose [1]. - PVC: Demand is insufficient, social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks, and the market is in a bearish continuation [1]. - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, inventory is still high, but it is expected to be bullish in the short term due to various factors [1]. - PTA: Recent device maintenance has increased, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand side shows signs of recovery [2]. - Ethylene glycol: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have little change, and inventory is low, so it is expected to be bullish [2]. - Methanol: Supply - side pressure continues to increase, demand is weak but expected to stabilize, and the fundamentals are still weak [2]. - Urea: The device maintenance is expected to increase this week, domestic supply is expected to be loose, but exports are good, and it is cautiously bullish [2]. - Asphalt: Oil prices still have room to compress, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the valuation is high [3]. - Glass: Warehouse receipts are increasing, deep - processing orders are improving slightly, and supply is under pressure while demand is insufficient [3]. - Soda ash: Spot prices in Shahe are rising, enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, and it is in a low - level oscillation [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.70%, Brent rising 0.80%, and SC falling 1.09% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical risks are released, the peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the demand support for oil prices is gradually weakening [6]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: The Trans - Mountain Pipeline has been in use since May 2024, with a daily transportation volume of 730,000 barrels in the first half of the year. India's crude oil imports decreased. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels, strategic crude reserve increased by 800,000 barrels [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - selling. Focus on the $60 new - drilling cost support for SC in the range of [480 - 490] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 28, the PG main contract closed at 4,422 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the LPG valuation has been repaired, the main contract basis is normal, and the PDH device operating rate has decreased [12]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: As of August 29, the LPG commodity volume increased, PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates changed, and refinery inventory increased while port inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - selling. Focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,402 yuan/ton (down 21 day - on - day), and the North China Ning coal price was 7,230 yuan/ton (down 40 day - on - day) [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The peak season in September is approaching, this week's output has decreased, and next week's output is expected to increase by 40,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips as the peak season is approaching. Focus on the range of [7300 - 7450] for L [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 7,020 yuan/ton (down 1 day - on - day), and the East China drawn wire market price was 6,961 yuan/ton (down 33 day - on - day) [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Futures and spot prices are both falling, the basis is weakening. The supply is under pressure in the future, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on short - term dips due to the low absolute price. Focus on the range of [6950 - 7100] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closed at 4,946 yuan/ton (down 3 day - on - day), and the Changzhou spot price was 4,700 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day) [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is insufficient, social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks, this week's operation is expected to decline, and next week's production is expected to increase [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - selling as the market is in a short - term weak oscillation and the further decline space is limited. Focus on the range of [4850 - 5000] for V [26]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7,014 yuan/ton (+125), and the PX11 contract closed at 6,966 yuan/ton (+8) [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices at home and abroad have slightly increased their load, demand - side PTA device maintenance has increased, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions carefully, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6770 - 6920] for PX511 [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA East China price was 4,865 yuan/ton (+35), and the TA01 closed at 4,868 yuan/ton (+8) [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased recently, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand side shows signs of recovery [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions carefully, pay attention to buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4820] for TA01 [35]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4,512 yuan/ton (-6), and the EG01 closed at 4,474 yuan/ton (+1) [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have little change, and inventory is low, while demand is recovering [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4450 - 4500] for EG01 [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the East China methanol spot price was 2,320 yuan/ton (-12), and the main 01 contract closed at 2,405 yuan/ton (-20) [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are increasing, supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and social inventory is accumulating [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions from high levels carefully, sell 01 call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities for 01 on dips. Focus on the range of [2365 - 2395] for MA01 [42]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,740 yuan/ton (-20), and the main contract closed at 1,739 yuan/ton (-25) [44]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance is expected to increase this week, domestic supply is expected to be loose, but exports are good [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions carefully, and conduct range operations due to the short - term intensified long - short game. Focus on the range of [1735 - 1765] for UR01 [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not mentioned in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices still have room to compress, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the valuation is high [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Light - position short - selling [3]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not mentioned in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, deep - processing orders are improving slightly, and supply is under pressure while demand is insufficient [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see due to the low absolute price and intense capital game [3]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not mentioned in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices in Shahe are rising, enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the supply is still under pressure [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see as it is in a low - level oscillation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term decline in soybean meal due to inventory build - up and improved crop conditions, but limited downside space due to Sino - US trade costs [2][5] - Short - term decline in rapeseed meal due to high inventory, high warehouse receipts, improved Sino - Australian trade, and increased estimated production of Canadian rapeseed [2][7] - Short - term adjustment in palm oil with high - level consolidation due to the uncertainty of Malaysian inventory in August, but a bullish view on dips due to biodiesel policies [2][8] - Short - term adjustment in soybean oil, following palm oil, with demand improvement expectations but pressure from upcoming US soybean harvest [2] - Short - term adjustment in rapeseed oil due to high inventory, weak market transactions, and expected smooth import of Australian rapeseed [2] - Cautious bullish on cotton, with short - term long positions on dips and consideration of multi - empty rhythm change in September [2][12] - Cautious bullish on red dates, with a suggestion of buying on dips [2][14] - Cautious bullish on live pigs, not recommending short - term short - chasing and suggesting long positions on dips [2][17] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 889.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 105.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.86 million tons [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term decline due to inventory build - up and improved US soybean crop conditions, but limited downside due to Sino - US trade costs [2][5] Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of August 22, the national main area rapeseed meal inventory was 61.38 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: High inventory, high warehouse receipts, and improved Sino - Australian trade cooled market speculation. The increased estimated production of Canadian rapeseed and harvest are bearish [2][7] Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory**: As of August 22, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52 million tons. The estimated Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month [8]. - **Market Analysis**: High - level consolidation due to the uncertainty of Malaysian inventory in August, bullish on dips due to biodiesel policies [2][8] Soybean Oil - **Market Analysis**: Follows palm oil for adjustment. There is an expectation of demand improvement, but the upcoming US soybean harvest exerts pressure [2] Rapeseed Oil - **Market Analysis**: High inventory, weak market transactions, and expected smooth import of Australian rapeseed are bearish [2] Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: As of a certain time, domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 171.26 million tons, lower than the same period. The demand showed marginal improvement [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Cautious bullish. Short - term long positions on dips, and consideration of multi - empty rhythm change in September [2][12] Red Dates - **Price and Inventory**: As of a certain time, the physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9519 tons, a decrease of 167 tons compared to the previous week [14]. - **Market Analysis**: Cautious bullish, with a suggestion of buying on dips [2][14] Live Pigs - **Price and Inventory**: As of a certain time, the national sample enterprise live pig inventory increased by 1.17%, and the出栏量 decreased by 3.01%. The demand is expected to improve marginally [15][16]. - **Market Analysis**: Cautious bullish, not recommending short - term short - chasing, suggesting long positions on dips [2][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, different investment stances are recommended: - **Bullish**: Gold, silver, copper, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are recommended for long - term investment or short - term long positions [1]. - **Bearish**: Zinc is recommended for short - term short positions and long - term shorting on rebounds [1]. - **Neutral with upward pressure**: Lead, aluminum, and nickel are expected to face upward pressure on price rebounds [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to have a long - term upward trend. Short - term, they are affected by data, policy, and geopolitical factors. Gold has support at around 770, and silver at 9200. Long - term, they benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: In the short - term, observe support at 78000 - 78500 and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, it is favored due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6][7]. - **Zinc**: In the short - term, hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds as supply increases and demand decreases [1][9][10]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, take profit and wait and see. The price faces upward pressure on rebounds due to inventory and demand factors [1][13][14]. - **Nickel**: After taking profit, wait and see. The price rebounds are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances in the nickel and stainless - steel industries [1][17][18]. - **New Energy Metals**: - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait for stabilization at gaps. The market has strong supply and demand, with inventory declining for two consecutive weeks. In the short - term, focus on the 20 - day moving average support [1][21][22]. 3. Summary by Metal Gold - **Market Review**: U.S. data is mixed, with GDP growth revised up but employment confidence down. There are tariff compromises and concerns about the Fed's independence. Short - term, there is a lack of major risk events, while long - term, gold benefits from global factors [3]. - **Logic**: Short - term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low. Long - term, it will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there is support at around 770, and pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 794. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Silver - **Market Review**: It follows the gold market in the short - term, with no obvious contradictions in its own market [1]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, global liquidity and re - industrialization demand are strong, while supply growth is limited [1]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, there is support at 9200. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The U.S. GDP is better than expected, and the dollar index has declined. The market is affected by upcoming events, and there is an increase in profit - taking of long positions [7]. - **Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decline. Demand will pick up with the approaching peak season. The long - term outlook is positive due to strategic importance and growing demand [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Observe support at 78000 - 78500, and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, be bullish on copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The price is oscillating weakly, testing the support at 22,000 [9]. - **Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is increasing, while demand is weak during the off - season. There is inventory accumulation in the domestic market [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price rebounds are under pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite supply is abundant, and there is inventory accumulation in the domestic market. Although downstream demand is slightly improving, the price still faces pressure [13]. - **Strategy**: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operations [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The price rebounds and then falls, and stainless steel is under pressure [16]. - **Logic**: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the nickel industry, with an oversupply of refined nickel and a tight supply of nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel market is still in the off - season [17]. - **Strategy**: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to changes in downstream inventory [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened significantly lower and then narrowed the decline [20]. - **Logic**: There is uncertainty about a mine's license renewal. Supply and demand are both strong, and inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks [21]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 20 - day moving average support at [77500 - 79800] [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Bearish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Bearish [1][10][11] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish [1][14][15] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bearish [1][17][18] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The introduction of the steel industry's stable growth plan has limited positive effects. The overall steel market shows a trend of loose supply and demand, and there is a risk of a mid - term decline [1][4][5]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are neutrally bearish, with the market returning to a weak fundamental logic after the cooling of macro - sentiment [1][6][7]. - Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and there is a risk of a mid - term correction due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" atmosphere [1][10][11]. - Coking coal production recovers slowly, downstream replenishment slows down, and there is a downward risk in the mid - term [1][14][15]. - The supply and demand of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon tend to be loose, and the market sentiment is weak, with a focus on short - selling operations [1][17][18]. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Rebar** - The stable growth plan of the steel industry has limited positive effects. Blast furnace profits have decreased but remain positive, and hot metal production remains at a relatively high level. Demand has increased month - on - month but is still lower than production, leading to an increase in inventory and a looser supply - demand margin. After the policy is implemented, there is a risk of continued decline [1][4][5]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 are 3205, 3246, and 3129 respectively, with increases of 33, 32, and 18 [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has increased slightly, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of production restrictions during the parade is limited, and the overall supply and demand show a loose trend. There is a mid - term decline risk under the weak fundamentals of steel [1][4][5]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 are 3372, 3380, and 3385 respectively, with increases of 31, 32, and 36 [2]. Iron Ore - Hot metal production has decreased, steel mills have completed replenishment, and port inventories have increased. The shipment of foreign mines has increased while arrivals have decreased, and the fundamentals are neutrally bearish. After the cooling of macro - sentiment, trading returns to fundamentals, and ore prices fluctuate weakly [1][6][7]. Coke - Spot prices have started the first round of cuts, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Affected by the parade, production restrictions in some areas have led to a marginal contraction in supply. Hot metal production remains at a high level. There is a mid - term correction risk due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" atmosphere [1][10][11]. - Futures market: The latest prices of coke 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1672.5, 1760.0, and 1583.5 respectively [9]. Coking Coal - Affected by the parade, safety supervision in some areas has been upgraded, and coking coal production recovers slowly. Although hot metal production remains at a high level, downstream replenishment has slowed down, market sentiment has weakened, and Mongolian coal auctions have failed multiple times. The stable growth policy of the steel industry mainly focuses on stable supply for raw materials, with limited positive effects, and there is a mid - term downward risk [1][14][15]. - Futures market: The latest prices of coking coal 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1175.0, 1222.0, and 1020.0 respectively [13]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Manganese Silicon** - Supply and demand tend to be loose, weekly production continues to increase, and the operating rate in Yunnan has reached a five - year high. The replenishment of steel mills has ended, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel tenders at the end of the month. The total shipment of the three major countries is 83.53 million tons, a decrease of 20.96 million tons month - on - month, mainly from South Africa. Arrivals have increased slightly, and port inventories are basically the same as last week. The cost side still has some support, and short - selling is the main strategy [1][16][17]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of manganese silicon 01, 05, and 09 are 5842, 2888, and 5734 respectively [16]. - **Ferrosilicon** - Weekly production continues to increase, demand has declined, and the fundamentals tend to be loose. Enterprise inventories have decreased month - on - month, and warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decrease, but the absolute level is still high, with relatively large inventory pressure. Short - selling on rallies is the main strategy [1][16][17]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 are 5604, 5736, and 5426 respectively [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, PVC, PP, glass, soda ash, asphalt, methanol [1][23][19][3][39][46] - **Cautiously Bearish**: LPG, methanol, urea [1][2][42] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L [1] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, urea [1][27][31][35] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude oil**: The consumption peak season is ending, supply surplus pressure is rising, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical risks are released, and the risk premium is squeezed out. The supply - side focuses on the break - even point of new US shale oil wells around $60. Strategy: Lightly short - sell [1][6]. - **LPG**: Cost - end weakens again, and short - term pressure exists. The valuation is repaired, and the basis of the main contract is at a normal level. Strategy: Temporarily wait and see [1]. - **L**: Cost support weakens, futures and spot prices fall together. The seasonal peak season in September is approaching, and the supply - demand fundamentals are not prominent. Strategy: Buy on dips as the peak season approaches [1][16]. - **PP**: Futures and spot prices fall together, and the basis strengthens. The short - term disk follows the sector down. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, but the absolute price is low, so there is support at the bottom. Strategy: Buy on short - term dips at low absolute prices [1][21]. - **PVC**: The thermal coal price turns down, market sentiment weakens, and the disk increases positions and falls. The supply - chain inventory accumulation pressure remains in the future. Strategy: It will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and be cautious about short - selling [1][25]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosened, but the macro - policy bullish expectation is fulfilled. The inventory is high but decreasing. Strategy: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options [1][29]. - **PTA**: Recent device maintenance increases, and the supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. The demand side shows signs of recovery. TA processing fees are generally low. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][33]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Domestic devices slightly increase their loads, and overseas devices change little. The inventory is low, and the demand is expected to improve. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][37]. - **Methanol**: Domestic maintenance devices resume production, and overseas devices' loads are at a high level. The demand is weak, and the social inventory accumulates. Strategy: Hold short positions at high levels cautiously, sell 01 call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels for 01 [2][40]. - **Urea**: This week, device maintenance is expected to increase, and the device operating load will decline in the short term. Domestic supply is expected to be loose, but exports are relatively good. Strategy: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options as short - term long - short competition intensifies [2][44]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price has room for compression, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply increases while demand decreases, and the valuation is high. Strategy: Lightly short - sell [3]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment weakens, and the disk increases positions and falls. Supply is under pressure, and demand support is insufficient. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level, and mainly wait and see [3]. - **Soda ash**: The trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and the high - level warehouse receipts are cancelled. The supply - demand pattern is weak. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level due to the divergence between macro and reality, and mainly wait and see [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.42%, Brent rising 1.11%, and SC falling 2.27% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical risks are released, the peak season is ending, US crude oil inventory accumulation decreases, and OPEC + production increase exerts pressure on the oil price. The oil price still has room for compression and may be pressured to around $60 in the medium - to - long term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply: The Trans - Mountain Pipeline has been in use since May 2024, and Mexico's crude oil exports increased in July. Demand: India's crude oil imports decreased in July. Inventory: As of August 22, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and strategic crude oil reserve increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, supply will be surplus. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. Lightly short - sell, and pay attention to the range of [475 - 485] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 27, the PG main contract closed at 4430 yuan/ton, down 0.32% month - on - month [10]. - **Basic Logic**: LPG valuation is repaired, and the main contract basis is normal. Supply slightly increases, and demand from some downstream industries decreases. Inventory: Refinery inventory decreases, and port inventory increases [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand. Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price. Close long positions and lightly short - sell. Pay attention to the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7364 yuan/ton (down 38 day - on - day); North China Ningxia coal was at 7270 yuan/ton (down 20 day - on - day) [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the peak season in September is approaching. Device restarts are expected to increase production, and the overall maintenance volume is high. The demand from the shed film peak season is increasing. Strategy: Buy on dips as the peak season approaches, and pay attention to the range of [7300 - 7450] for L [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 7021 yuan/ton (down 25 day - on - day); the East China drawn wire market price was 6994 yuan/ton (down 16 day - on - day) [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Futures and spot prices fall together, and the basis strengthens. Device restarts and new capacity release increase supply pressure. Peak - season demand starts, and inventory at factories and traders decreases from a high level. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, but the absolute price is low. Strategy: Buy on short - term dips at low absolute prices, and pay attention to the range of [6950 - 7100] for PP [21]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closed at 4949 yuan/ton (down 49 day - on - day); the Changzhou spot price was 4740 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month); warehouse receipts increased by 183 [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The thermal coal price turns down, market sentiment weakens, and the 01 contract position reaches a new high. Device maintenance ends, and supply is expected to increase. Exports to India may slow down, and social inventory has been accumulating for 9 weeks. Strategy: It will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and be cautious about short - selling. Pay attention to the range of [4850 - 5000] for V [25]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 (+125) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 (+8) yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices slightly increase their loads, and demand - side PTA device maintenance increases. The supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosened, and the inventory is high but decreasing. PXN is not low. Domestic chemical "anti - involution" and other factors are favorable. Strategy: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of [6890 - 7010] for PX511 [29][30]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA East China price was 4865 (+35) yuan/ton; the TA01 closed at 4868 (+8) yuan/ton. Spot and basis both strengthened [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance increases, and supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. Demand shows signs of recovery, and the market has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. TA inventory decreases slightly. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of [4780 - 4850] for TA01 [33][34]. Ethylene glycol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4512 (-6) yuan/ton; the EG01 closed at 4474 (+1) yuan/ton [36]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase their loads, and overseas devices change little. Import and arrival volumes are low. Demand shows signs of recovery, and inventory is low. Cost - end support exists. Strategy: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of [4460 - 4500] for EG01 [37][38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the East China methanol spot price was 2320 (-12) yuan/ton; the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2405 (-20) yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic maintenance devices resume production, and overseas device loads are at a high level. Supply pressure increases, demand is weak, and social inventory accumulates. Cost - end coal has support. Strategy: Hold short positions at high levels cautiously, sell 01 call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels for 01. Pay attention to the range of [2350 - 2390] for MA01 [40][41]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 (-20) yuan/ton; the urea main contract closed at 1739 (-25) yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance is expected to increase this week, and supply will be tight in the short term but still loose in the long term. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are good. Inventory accumulates, and cost has support. Strategy: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options as short - term long - short competition intensifies. Pay attention to the range of [1740 - 1770] for UR01 [44][45]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not specifically provided in a unified way. - **Basic Logic**: The oil price has room for compression, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply increases due to rising operating rates, and demand decreases due to typhoons in the south. The valuation is high. Strategy: Lightly short - sell [3]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not specifically provided in a unified way. - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment weakens, and the disk increases positions and falls. Supply is under pressure as new production lines are expected to start, and demand support is insufficient as downstream orders are low. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level, and mainly wait and see [3]. Soda ash - **Market Review**: Not specifically provided in a unified way. - **Basic Logic**: The trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and high - level warehouse receipts are cancelled. The supply is high, and demand is mostly for rigid needs. Strategy: It will fluctuate at a low level due to the divergence between macro and reality, and mainly wait and see [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal has a short - term decline due to factors like inventory build - up and improved crop conditions of US soybeans, while rapeseed meal is affected by high inventory, high warehouse receipts, and increased production estimates of Canadian rapeseed [2][6]. - **Short - term bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are short - term bullish. Palm oil benefits from biodiesel policies and export data; soybean oil is influenced by the US EPA's renewable fuel exemption decisions; and rapeseed oil has cost support from manufacturers' price - holding and import prices [2]. - **Cautious bullish**: Cotton, jujube, and live pigs are cautiously bullish. Cotton has a supply - tight situation before new cotton listing and improving demand; jujube is expected to have a reduced production but with inventory pressure; live pigs face short - term selling pressure but long - term potential from capacity reduction [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 3045 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The national average spot price is 3073.14 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 92.7098 yuan/ton, down 74.20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 889.8 million tons, down 2.80 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory is 105.33 million tons, up 3.86 million tons from last week [5]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term decline adjustment, with limited downward space due to Sino - US trade costs. Short - term short - selling below 3000 yuan needs caution [2][6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 2501 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The national average spot price is 2628.95 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 329.1675 yuan/ton, down 50.94 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory situation**: As of August 22, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions is 61.38 million tons, down 2.14 million tons from last week [8]. - **Market view**: It is in a short - term adjustment. Caution is needed when going long, and short - term participation should wait for short - term stabilization. Attention should be paid to Sino - Australian relations and Canada's response to China's anti - dumping results [2][8]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The main contract's closing price is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The national average price is 9565 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The national daily trading volume is 500 units, down 44.32%. The commercial inventory is 58.21 million tons, down 3.52 million tons from last week [9]. - **Export data**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to be 933437 tons, up 36.41% from the same period last month [10]. - **Market view**: It is in a high - level consolidation. Bullish operations should be cautious this week, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation's impact on crude oil prices and Malaysia's palm oil inventory estimate this month [2][10]. Cotton - **Market data**: The main contract CF2601 closes at 14075 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The domestic spot price is 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The spinning mill's operating rate is 65.8%, up 0.3%, and the weaving factory's operating rate is 37.2%, up 0.2% [11]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The US cotton's excellent - good rate is 54%, down 1%. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 393.5 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. In China, the new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and the commercial inventory is 171.26 million tons, lower than the same period [12][13]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term. After September, the long - short rhythm should be adjusted according to demand and new cotton prices [2][14]. Jujube - **Market data**: The main contract CJ2601 closes at 11360 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9519 tons, down 167 tons from last week [15]. - **Production situation**: The new - season jujube production in southern Xinjiang is estimated to be 50 - 58 million tons, with a reduced production but less than in 2023/24 [16]. - **Market view**: It is recommended to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to weather impacts on quality and subsequent stocking [2][16]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511 closes at 13745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. The national average spot price is 13740 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The slaughter enterprise's daily operating rate is 29.52%, up 0.52% [17]. - **Supply and demand situation**: The planned August slaughter volume of sample enterprises is 1322.57 million heads, up 5.26%. The demand is expected to improve in the next 1 - 2 months [18]. - **Market view**: Do not short blindly in the short term. Consider going long on far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage around strong contracts [2][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][6] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][7][9][10] - **Coking coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][11][13][14] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish [1][15][16][17] Core Views - **Steel**: After continuous decline, it may rebound in the short term. Rebar's demand is weak, and supply-demand is marginally loose. Hot-rolled coil's fundamentals are relatively stable, with a tendency of looser supply-demand and a high coil-rebar spread that may fall later [1][3][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Production increases, environmental restrictions are less than expected, and ports are accumulating stocks. The market is returning to a fundamentally weak logic, and prices are oscillating weakly [1][6] - **Coke**: Supply and demand are relatively stable, and it may rebound in the short term due to improved profits and strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][7][9][10] - **Coking coal**: Supply-demand is relatively stable. Although there is a downward correction space in the medium term, it may rebound in the short term due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][11][13][14] - **Ferroalloys**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and the market sentiment is falling. It is advisable to short on rebounds [1][15][16][17] Summaries by Variety Rebar - **Market situation**: Blast furnace profits have declined but are still positive, and hot metal production is expected to remain stable. Demand is weak, and supply-demand is marginally loose [1][4] - **Operation suggestion**: In the medium term, there is a risk of continued decline, but in the short term, there may be a rebound at key levels [1][5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Market situation**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have all slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of production restrictions during the military parade is limited, and supply-demand is generally tending to be loose. The coil-rebar spread is at a relatively high level [1][4] - **Operation suggestion**: In the medium term, it will operate weakly, but in the short term, there may be a technical rebound [1][5] Iron Ore - **Market situation**: Hot metal production has increased again, environmental restrictions are less than expected, steel mills have completed restocking, and ports are accumulating stocks. Overseas ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the fundamentals are neutrally weak [1][6] - **Operation suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][6] Coke - **Market situation**: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and coke enterprise profits have improved. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and production and inventory are relatively stable. The "anti-involution" atmosphere in the market has subsided, but safety supervision expectations for coking coal have strengthened [1][9] - **Operation suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][10] Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Domestic production is flat month-on-month and lower than the same period last year, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly recently. Mine inventory has stopped decreasing, and the transfer to downstream has slowed down. Hot metal production is still at a high level, and raw material demand is stable. Futures prices have a premium over warehouse receipt costs, and there is a downward correction space in the medium term [1][13] - **Operation suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][14] Ferromanganese - **Market situation**: Supply-demand is tending to be loose, weekly production continues to increase, and the operating rate in Yunnan has reached a five-year high. Steel mills have completed restocking, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel procurement at the end of the month. Manganese ore shipments from three major countries have decreased, arrivals have slightly increased, and port inventory is basically flat [1][16] - **Operation suggestion**: In the short term, it is advisable to participate in short positions as the market sentiment falls and the rebound is weak [1][17] Ferrosilicon - **Market situation**: Weekly production continues to increase, demand has declined, and the fundamentals are tending to be loose. Enterprise inventory has decreased, and warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decline, but the overall inventory pressure is still large [1][16] - **Operation suggestion**: In the short term, it is advisable to short on rebounds as the market sentiment falls and the rebound is weak [1][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Short - term, it's recommended to wait and see as the upward space is limited in the short term, but it should be strategically allocated in the long term due to factors like global monetary easing, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical restructuring [1]. - Silver: It's recommended to buy on rebounds. Although the short - term market contradictions are not obvious, the upward trend remains unchanged in the medium and long term due to factors such as fiscal and monetary policies in the US and strong re - industrialization demand [1]. - Copper: It's recommended to hold long positions. With the approaching of the peak season, short - term long positions should be held, and it's bullish in the long term as it's an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game [1][7]. - Zinc: It's recommended to wait and see in the short term and sell on rebounds in the long term as the supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing [1][10]. - Lead: The price rebound is under pressure due to factors such as the resumption of primary lead production and the losses of secondary lead enterprises [1]. - Tin: The price shows a short - term rebound trend due to factors like the repeated resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the decline in the smelting industry's start - up rate [1]. - Aluminum: The price shows a short - term rebound trend due to a favorable policy environment and the slight increase in inventory in consumption areas [1]. - Nickel: The price shows a short - term rebound trend due to factors such as stable overseas nickel ore prices and the slight reduction of stainless steel inventory [1]. - Industrial silicon: It mainly moves in a range, and the price is under pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the slow resumption of production of leading enterprises [1]. - Polysilicon: It's cautiously bullish. Although the production is expected to increase in September, enterprises will limit sales, and the spot price may rise further [1]. - Lithium carbonate: It's cautiously bullish. The supply and demand are both strong, and there is still a de - stocking expectation in September [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and the Fed's independence is questioned, but there is a lack of obvious major drivers for gold. Geopolitical tensions are easing, limiting gold market fluctuations [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data shows both positive and negative aspects; the "Cook incident" impacts the Fed's independence; geopolitical tensions are subsiding. In the short term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low, while in the long term, gold may be in a long - term bull market [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has support around 770 in the short term, and attention should be paid to the performance at the recent high of 794. Silver has support at 9100 in the short term. The long - term trend of gold and silver is upward [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level with its center of gravity moving up [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decrease marginally. Currently in the off - season, but demand will pick up with the approaching of the peak season. The annual copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, it's recommended to hold existing long positions and wait for opportunities to buy on dips. In the long term, it's bullish on copper. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai copper and London copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds, but冲高回落 during the session [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and smelter enthusiasm is high. On the demand side, galvanized enterprise start - up rates are expected to decline due to factors such as tariff policies and the off - season [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it's recommended to wait and see. In the long term, sell on rebounds. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai zinc and London zinc [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, while alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - environment has a strong interest - rate cut expectation, and the cost has decreased. The inventory has increased slightly. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's recommended to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises and the price range of Shanghai aluminum [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebound, and stainless steel rebounds from a low level [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - sentiment is positive. The supply of refined nickel is in surplus, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. Stainless steel inventory has decreased, but the off - season pressure remains [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It's recommended to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to downstream inventory changes and the price range of nickel [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens low and goes low, with a reduction in positions and a slight decline [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is picking up with the approaching of the peak season. The total inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and there is still a de - stocking expectation [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average in the price range of [78200 - 81000] [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different agricultural products have varying market outlooks and investment strategies. For soymeal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil, the short - term market trends are different, with soymeal and rapeseed meal in short - term adjustment phases, while palm oil has a short - term bullish outlook. Cotton, dates, and live pigs also have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding investment suggestions[2]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3089.71 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day[4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 889.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.80 million tons. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 682.53 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.13 million tons. The soymeal inventory was 105.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.86 million tons[5]. - **Market Outlook**: There is a short - term adjustment due to the increase in the weekly crop good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans and the week - on - week increase in soymeal inventory. However, there are short - term long opportunities after stabilization, but the overall upside space is limited[2][5]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2547 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2666.84 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day[6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 22, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 15.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8 million tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions decreased by 2.14 million tons from the previous week[6]. - **Market Outlook**: New - crop Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage. The high inventory and improved China - Australia trade have cooled market speculation. The August production forecast of Canadian rapeseed has been significantly increased, which is bearish. It is in a short - term adjustment phase, and cautious bullish sentiment is advised. Wait for short - term stabilization before short - term participation[2][7]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9582 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The national average price was 9635 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day[8]. - **Inventory and Export Information**: As of August 22, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52 million tons. The export data from August 1 - 20 in Malaysia was good[9]. - **Market Outlook**: It is in a high - level consolidation phase as it approaches the end - of - August Malaysian palm oil inventory forecast. Be cautious about chasing long this week. However, in the context of the biodiesel consumption policy, the trend operation should be based on the idea of buying on dips[2][9]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The domestic spot price rose 0.62% to 15331 yuan/ton, and the ICE cotton main contract fell 0.97% to 66.67 cents/pound[12]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Internationally, the drought - free rate in the US cotton - growing area has slowed down, and the excellent - to - good rate has decreased slightly. In Brazil, the total cotton production is expected to be slightly reduced. Domestically, new cotton is entering the boll - opening stage, and the import volume in July increased slightly. The commercial inventory has decreased, and the demand has improved marginally[12][13]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the short - term soil moisture of US cotton has improved, which is bearish, the international cotton price is undervalued. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage before new cotton is launched, and there is a possibility of local small - scale抢购. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and consider the long - short rhythm change in September[2][14]. Dates - **Price Information**: The main contract of dates, CJ2601, closed at 11410 yuan/ton, up 0.13%[16]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The main production areas are in the fruit - swelling stage. The estimated new - season production is expected to decrease, but the reduction is less than that in 2023. The inventory is being depleted at a moderate pace, and the market trading atmosphere is average[16]. - **Market Outlook**: The 2025/26 annual production in the southern Xinjiang date market is expected to be between 50 - 58 million tons, with a definite reduction. There may be quality speculation due to increased rainfall in some areas, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips[2][16]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2511, fell 0.47% to 13860 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price rose 0.07% to 13830 yuan/ton[18]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in August has increased. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to July has increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long term, the number of fertile sows has decreased slightly. The demand is expected to improve marginally in the future 1 - 2 months[18]. - **Market Outlook**: The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is smooth, and the short - term pressure on the spot end remains. The medium - and long - term inventory scale is high, but the incremental space is shrinking. It is not recommended to short blindly in the short term. Consider establishing long positions in far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse - spread operations around strong contracts[2][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, asphalt [1][4] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG (take profit on long positions), L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea [1][2] - **Bullish**: Glass, soda ash [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks lead to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the pressure of oversupply is increasing, and the oil price trend remains downward. Suggest buying put options and shorting with a light position [1]. - **LPG**: Valuation is restored, downstream开工 rate drops. Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, futures and spot prices rise together, and the basis weakens. The peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. Suggest buying on dips [1]. - **PP**: The oil price stabilizes and rebounds, and the chemical sector continues the optimistic sentiment. The supply is still under pressure in the future, but the absolute price is low with support at the bottom. Suggest short - term buying on dips [1]. - **PVC**: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, and the cost support improves. Although the inventory is accumulating, the further decline space of the disk is limited. Suggest short - term long positions [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose, but the macro - policy bullish expectation is fulfilled. Short - term PX fluctuates strongly. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. There are opportunities to go long at low levels. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [2]. - **MEG**: Domestic and overseas supply changes are small, demand is expected to improve, inventory is low, and cost support exists. Suggest holding long positions and buying on dips [2]. - **Methanol**: The supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. Do not chase the rise, and focus on buying 01 contracts on dips and selling put options on 01 contracts [2]. - **Urea**: The fundamentals are weak, but there is cost support and export expectations. 01 long positions can be held cautiously, and call options can be sold [2]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price has room to compress, and the asphalt is under pressure above. Suggest shorting with a light position [4]. - **Glass**: The supply is under pressure, demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices stabilized and rebounded. WTI rose 1.79%, Brent rose 1.49%, and SC rose 0.51% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors boost oil prices in the short term, but in the medium - and long - term, the support from the peak season weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increase rises. The oil price may be pressed to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Libya plans to increase production, India's oil imports decline, and US commercial crude inventories decrease [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of shale oil new drilling around $60. Buy put options and short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of SC [480 - 500] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 25, the PG main contract closed at 4420 yuan/ton, up 0.64% month - on - month [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price rebounds, the valuation is restored, and the main contract basis is at a normal level. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the trend mainly follows the oil price [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4400 - 4500] [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7423 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan day - on - day [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. The demand side is strengthening, and there is an expectation of fundamental improvement [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of L [7300 - 7500] [16] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7074 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan day - on - day [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil price rebounds, the chemical sector is optimistic, but the supply is under pressure. The demand in the peak season starts, and the inventory at high levels drops. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the bottom is supported [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term buying on dips. Pay attention to the range of PP [7000 - 7200] [21] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan day - on - day [25]. - **Basic Logic**: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, the cost support improves. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulates. The further decline space of the disk is limited [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions. Pay attention to the range of V [4950 - 5100] [26] PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 (+125) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 (+8) yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, the demand - side PTA device maintenance increases, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose. The PXN is not low, and short - term PX fluctuates strongly [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6950 - 7050] [31] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA spot price in East China was 4865 (+35) yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4868 (+8) yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side device maintenance increases, the demand shows signs of recovery, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand is expected to improve [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, sell put options, and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4840 - 4920] [35] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 22, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 (-6) yuan/ton, and the EG01 contract closed at 4474 (+1) yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase production, overseas devices change little, and the arrival and import are at low levels. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is low. The cost support exists [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of EG01 [4500 - 4550] [39] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the methanol spot price in East China was 2320 (-12) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2405 (-20) yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. The cost is supported by coal [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, focus on buying 01 contracts on dips, and sell put options on 01 contracts. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2390 - 2440] [42] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1739 (-25) yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The cost support exists, and the price fluctuates in a range [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of UR01 [1735 - 1765] [46] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, the supply increases, and the demand decreases. The valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [4] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure, the demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see [4] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The supply remains high, the demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see [4]