| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企业库存 | | | | 开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计会有所减缓。7 月美农报告调增新年 | | | | 度美豆期末库存，偏利空。美豆下跌。昨日美豆种植报告显示种植情况环比改善。 | | | | 昨日豆粕小幅收跌。在缺乏基本面利多驱动下，价格出现整理。短期走势，在基本 | | | | 面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑双重作用下，豆粕以大区间行情对待。主力【2965， | | | | 3015】 | | | 短线反弹 | 欧盟及加籽种植天气降雨偏低，部分地区土壤墒情偏干。新季全球菜籽产量有所恢 | | | | 复，但加籽种植面积同比下降，同比增幅受限，关注后续天气及单产情况。国内市 | | | | 场，目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 全球多国正通过双边谈判、WTO 申诉、反制清单 及技术管制 应对美国 8 月 1 | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 日关税生效压力，同时俄乌冲突衍生贸易威胁加剧不确定性。中长期，多国政 | | | | 策宽松，多国央行继续购买黄金，未来不确定性仍然较多，战略配置。【765-795】 | | | | 白银供给有缺口，经济需求有支撑，各国宽财政刺激工业需求，多头积极，白 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 银盘面强势，长期看受基本金属和黄金价格情绪影响较大，短期关注前 9000 支 撑的有效性做好仓位控制。【9000-9375】 | | | | 美铜进口关税冲击影响边际消退，需求淡季叠加非美铜库存紧张预期减弱，或推动 | | 铜 | 震荡 | 短期隐形库存显性化，警惕需求证伪带来回调压力，但是预计铜深跌幅度有限，以 回调后逢低试多为主，中长期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【77000，79000】 | | | | 锌精矿加工费持续修复，海外钢铁反倾销影响镀锌钢材需求，特朗普关税不确 | | 锌 | 承压 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range due to factors such as high US tariffs, potential Fed monetary easing, and continued gold purchases by central banks [1]. - Silver is likely to have a strong - level range. Trump's tariff on Mexico impacts silver mine costs, and fiscal stimulus boosts industrial demand [1][3]. - Copper is expected to fluctuate. Although there may be short - term inventory and demand issues, long - term prospects are positive due to global copper shortages [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and there are uncertainties in global economy and demand [1][9]. - Lead is under pressure because of increased supply and insufficient downstream consumption [1]. - Tin is under pressure as the slow复产 of mines and the off - season of consumption lead to inventory accumulation [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure due to high production capacity, inventory build - up, and weakening terminal consumption [1][11]. - Nickel is in a weak position. Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, and there is inventory build - up in nickel and stainless steel [1][13]. - Industrial silicon may rebound, but high inventory restricts the upside [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to trade in a high - level range, with policy expectations and price feedback loops driving the market [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level range. Market rumors and warehouse receipt contradictions drive up the price, but inventory build - up remains a concern [1][14]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: High US tariffs, possible Fed monetary easing, and continued gold purchases by central banks. Future uncertainties are high, suitable for strategic allocation [1]. - **Price Range**: [765 - 795] [1] Silver - **Core View**: Strong - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: Trump's 30% tariff on EU and Mexican goods from August 1st affects Mexican silver mines. Silver's industrial use in solar panels also provides support [1][3]. - **Price Range**: [9000 - 9375] [1] Copper - **Core View**: Fluctuate [1] - **Main Logic**: The impact of US copper import tariffs is fading. There are short - term inventory and demand issues, but long - term supply shortages are expected due to global copper mine tensions [1][6]. - **Price Range**: Shanghai copper [77500, 79500]; London copper [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. There are uncertainties in global economy and demand, and LME zinc inventory has increased significantly [1][9]. - **Price Range**: Shanghai zinc [21800, 22400]; London zinc [2680, 2780] dollars/ton [9] Lead - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: Increased supply of primary and recycled lead in July, insufficient downstream consumption, and inventory accumulation [1]. - **Price Range**: [16700 - 17300] [1] Tin - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: Slow复产 of mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the off - season of consumption lead to inventory accumulation [1]. - **Price Range**: [260000 - 269000] [1] Aluminum - **Core View**: Under pressure [1] - **Main Logic**: High production capacity, inventory build - up, and weakening terminal consumption [1][11]. - **Price Range**: [20000 - 20600] [1] Nickel - **Core View**: Weak [1] - **Main Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, and there is inventory build - up in nickel and stainless steel [1][13]. - **Price Range**: [118000 - 121000] [1] Industrial Silicon - **Core View**: Rebound [1] - **Main Logic**: Rumors of canceled electricity subsidies and复产 cancellation are positive, but high inventory restricts the upside [1]. - **Price Range**: [8530 - 8800] [1] Polysilicon - **Core View**: High - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: Policy expectations and price feedback loops drive the market, but high prices and margin hikes on the exchange increase volatility [1]. - **Price Range**: [40900 - 42500] [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: High - level range [1] - **Main Logic**: Market rumors and warehouse receipt contradictions drive up the price. Although the fundamentals are improving marginally, inventory build - up continues [1][14]. - **Price Range**: [65300 - 67000] [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA/PR, Ethylene glycol, Asphalt, Propylene [1][2][3] - **Bullish Rebound**: Glass, Caustic soda, Urea [2] - **Narrow - range Increase**: Soda ash [2] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L, PP [1] - **Continued Rebound**: PVC [1] - **Weak Oscillation**: Propylene [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of crude oil is gradually rising, leading to a decline in oil prices. LPG is weak due to the falling oil prices at the cost - end and sufficient propane supply. L and PP are in a bearish consolidation state with cost support weakening and supply - side pressures. PVC has a short - term long and long - term short trend driven by policy expectations. PX is in a tight supply - demand balance but is affected by falling oil prices, presenting a bearish oscillation. PTA and ethylene glycol have an expectedly loose supply - demand situation and are recommended to short at high prices. Glass is expected to rise due to inventory reduction and policy support. Soda ash has a narrow - range increase under high - supply and high - inventory pressure. Caustic soda continues to rebound with supply pressure easing and demand from alumina. Methanol is bearish on rebounds due to device maintenance and MTO demand negative feedback. Urea is short - term strong due to international price increases and export speculation. Asphalt is bearish as the cost - end oil prices fall and supply is sufficient. Propylene is in a weak oscillation with cost support weakening [1][2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 3.86%, Brent down 1.63%, and SC up 1.55% [4][5]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil market shows a situation of strong expectation but weak reality. During the consumption peak season, there is some support below, but the pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually released, pressuring the oil prices above. In terms of supply, Russia's June seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% to 8.98 million tons, and the number of active US oil rigs decreased to 424. In terms of demand, China's June crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, and the IEA expects a global oil demand growth of 720,000 barrels per day in 2026. In terms of inventory, the US crude oil inventory increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+'s production expansion cycle, the crude oil supply will be in surplus, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, it is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [505 - 525] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,182 yuan/ton, up 0.43% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,590 (+0), 4,496 (+0), and 4,640 (+20) yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. With OPEC+'s production increase, the supply - side pressure of LPG is rising, and the demand is weak. As of July 11, the PDH device profit was - 384 yuan/ton, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the central price of upstream crude oil is expected to move down, and LPG is over - valued. It is recommended to short with a light position. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4100 - 4200] [10]. L - **Basic Logic**: The domestic polyethylene market returns to fundamentals. Although the oil price is expected to rise, the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply changes little. The cost support weakens, the device maintenance increases, and the supply pressure eases marginally. There are new device production plans in July - August, with a long - term weak expectation. The agricultural film start - up rate increases month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term oscillation, try to go long on dips. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7200 - 7350] [12]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP main contract price and related indicators show certain changes, such as the main contract closing price, position, and inventory [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, and the new orders of downstream factories have not improved. The cost support weakens as the centers of propylene and crude oil move down. The number of Jineng Chemical's warehouse receipts continues to increase, suppressing the rebound space. The device restart plans increase, and there are new production capacity plans in the third quarter, putting pressure on the long - term supply [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, and take the opportunity to conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC main contract price and related indicators change, with the main contract closing price rising and the warehouse receipts increasing [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The scale of domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance is expected to narrow, and the supply will increase. The downstream demand is stable, and the upstream cost is expected to be stable next week. The market continues to trade "anti - involution", with insufficient upward driving force in fundamentals, increasing warehouse receipts, and rising social inventory. Some devices are under maintenance or starting up, and it is in the off - season of domestic demand. Attention should be paid to the change of anti - dumping tax policies [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4950 - 5100] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 11, the PX spot price in East China was 7,120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,694 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices reduce their loads, and overseas devices operate at a high load. The PXN spread is 256.7 (+5.3) dollars/ton, and the short - process PX - MX spread is 99.7 (-4.0) dollars/ton. The gasoline cracking spread weakens. The PX weekly output is 69.7 (-1.1) million tons, and the international PX start - up rate is 73.8% (+0.6pct). The import volume in May was 77.3 million tons. The demand is relatively sufficient, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a high level in the past five years [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. PX is recommended to focus on the range of [6710 - 6820] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On July 11, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,715 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,700 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is sufficient. Some devices are under maintenance or shut down. The PTA spot processing fee is 125.9 (-4.9) yuan/ton, the disk processing fee is 315.4 (+15.6) yuan/ton, the weekly device maintenance capacity loss is 35.2 (-2.4) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 80.4% (+1.2pct), and the weekly output is 143.7 (+2.1) million tons. The demand is expected to weaken, the polyester start - up rate is decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing but overall neutral [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. TA is recommended to focus on the range of [4700 - 4770] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 11, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,383 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,305 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The number of domestic and overseas device maintenance is less than that of restarts, and the expected arrival volume is increasing, with a loose supply expectation. The MEG weekly maintenance loss is 24.1 (-0.4) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 60.4% (+0.6pct), and the weekly output is 36.7 (+0.2) million tons. The arrival volume and import volume are low, but the expected arrival volume increases. The demand is expected to weaken, the polyester start - up rate is decreasing, and the inventory is stable, with the port inventory being low [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. EG is recommended to focus on the range of [4310 - 4370] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot price in the central China market increases, the futures price rises, the basis narrows, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged [27][29]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro - level, the policy emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity and the technological improvement of coal - fired production lines, which is expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The in - production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, the weekly output increases slightly, the enterprise inventory decreases, and the production profit varies. The fuel price rises, and the spot price increases [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on going long based on the 5 - day moving average. FG is recommended to focus on the range of [1080 - 1110] [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - soda spot price decreases, the futures price rises, the main basis narrows, the warehouse receipts decrease, and the forecast remains unchanged [30][32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side capacity - reduction policy boosts the industry, but the market sentiment is slightly negative as the policy speculation weakens and the inventory accumulates. The supply is at a high level with a slight decrease due to device maintenance. The capacity utilization rate is 81.32%, the inventory increases, and the downstream support is okay but the terminal consumption is weak [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider shorting on rebounds. SA is recommended to focus on the range of [1220 - 1250] [2]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price generally increases, the futures price center moves up, the basis strengthens, and the warehouse receipts decrease [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side start - up rate is 80.4%, with a decline of 0.1% month - on - month, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the summer maintenance season. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the supply pressure may ease in the short - term. The demand from the main downstream alumina industry increases, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support weakens, and the liquid - caustic inventory decreases [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is expected to continue to rebound. SH is recommended to focus on the range of [2500 - 2550] [35]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 11, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,381 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,370 yuan/ton. The basis and month - spread change, and the trans - shipment profit increases [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device maintenance leads to a decline in the start - up load, while the overseas device load recovers. The supply pressure is still large. The methanol weighted profit is 102.1 (-1.2) yuan/ton, the weekly device loss is 34.36 (+7.71) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 84.75% (-3.42pct), and the weekly output is 190.99 (-7.71) million tons. The MTO demand has a negative feedback, the traditional downstream start - up rate is high, the social inventory accumulates, and the cost support is weak [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. MA is recommended to focus on the range of [2375 - 2415] [38]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The daily urea output is nearly 200,000 tons, the supply pressure is large, the industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand decreases month - on - month. The cost support exists, the basis is strong, the domestic fundamentals are loose, the international price rises, and there is speculation about urea exports [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long with a light position when the market opens low, and also pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. UR is recommended to focus on the range of [1755 - 1785] [2]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price falls, the raw material supply is sufficient, the supply decreases slightly, the inventory accumulates, the fundamentals are neutral, and the demand is affected by the weather, with the previous "north - strong and south - weak" pattern reversed [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position. BU is recommended to focus on the range of [3620 - 3680] [2]. Propylene - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end propane price continues to fall, the cost support weakens, the device restart plans increase, the output is expected to increase, and the downstream and traders replenish stocks at low prices [2][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term decline space is limited, and short on rebounds. Propylene is recommended to focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term rebound, with no fundamental bullish drivers, and the market is expected to move in a range. The main contract range is [2965, 3015] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term rebound, with high tariffs and low imports providing support. The short - term market is treated as a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at previous highs. The main contract range is [2620, 2700] [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. Although there is an inventory build - up cycle, multiple bullish factors are at play. However, caution is needed when going long due to the supply season. The main contract range is [8600, 8800] [1]. - **Cotton**: Rebound is under pressure. The market is affected by a combination of bullish and bearish factors, and the cotton price is expected to face pressure at the 14,000 level. The main contract range is [13750, 13950] [1]. - **Red Dates**: Sell on rallies. The new - season production shows no obvious signs of reduction, and the inventory is high while demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to sell on rallies after the second - crop flower setting in the middle and late period. The main contract range is [10200, 10650] [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak and volatile. The short - term market is affected by the slaughter rhythm and second - fattening entry. The upside space for pig prices is limited, and there is a risk of a callback in the 09 contract. The main contract range is [14150, 14450] [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The US soybean planting weather is generally smooth, and South America has a bumper harvest. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory build - up stage for soybeans and soybean meal. Feed enterprises' inventory is higher than last year, and the enthusiasm for further replenishment is expected to slow down [1]. - **Data**: As of July 11, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 35.10 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 657.49 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.09 million tons, or 3.31% [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2992 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2908.86 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: From July to September, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. However, the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to consumption [1]. - **Data**: As of July 11, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 14.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.05 million tons [8]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2659 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2632.11 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The inventory build - up cycle in Southeast Asia has started, but there are multiple bullish factors such as low - price procurement demand from China and India, US biodiesel policies, and the promotion of Malaysia's B20 policy. The US's potential 32% tariff on Indonesia will benefit Malaysian palm oil [1]. - **Data**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key areas' commercial inventory of palm oil was 56.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.79 million tons, or 5.21% [11]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8748 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The national average price was 8860 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: In the US, the cotton planting area has decreased year - on - year, but the excellent - good rate is high, and the weekly export has increased significantly. In China, the new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is higher than expected. The import of cotton has decreased, and the inventory of domestic cotton is decreasing [1]. - **Data**: In 2025, the US cotton planting area was 10.1 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The national cotton actual sown area was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [13][14]. - **Price**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, closed at 13875 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.20% to 15313 yuan/ton [12][13]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and there are no obvious signs of yield reduction. The inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is in the off - season [1]. - **Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10430 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90 tons, higher than the same period last year by 4630 tons [17]. - **Price**: The main contract, CJ2601, closed at 10390 yuan/ton, down 2.03% from the previous day [17]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in July has decreased compared to June, and scale farms are holding back on sales. In the medium and long term, the number of newborn piglets from January to May 2025 has increased, indicating potential growth in the second - half slaughter volume [1]. - **Data**: The national sample enterprises' monthly pig inventory was 3719.93 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31%; the monthly pig slaughter volume was 11.2559 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.51% [18]. - **Price**: The main contract, Lh2509, closed at 14285 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day. The domestic live pig spot price increased by 0.07% to 14920 yuan/ton [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short term, and arrange short positions in the medium term [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [1][10][12] - Coking Coal: Bullish [1][14][16] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with oscillations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent de - capacity and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment, and expectations have improved. The supply - demand situation varies among different varieties, with some showing signs of the off - season, while others maintain a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship [1][4][5] - The iron ore market has a neutral supply - demand structure. Attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level, and short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8][9] - The coke and coking coal markets have seen an improvement in market sentiment, with short - term bullish trends [1][12][16] - The ferroalloy market is dominated by market sentiment, with manganese silicon and silicon iron expected to oscillate within a certain range [1][18][19] 3. Summary by Variety Steel a. Rebar - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, total inventory has decreased slightly, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Hot metal production has dropped below 2.4 million tons, but the absolute level remains high [1][4] - Market sentiment: Driven by de - capacity and anti - involution policies, market sentiment has strengthened, and expectations have improved [1][4][5] - Price range: [3110, 3150] [1] b. Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand have both declined slightly month - on - month, and inventory has changed little. The supply - demand is generally balanced, with limited fundamental contradictions [1][4] - Market sentiment: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas, leading to a bullish trend in trading based on sentiment and expectations [1][5] - Price range: [3250, 3290] [1] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: On the demand side, hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. On the supply side, the shipping rush has ended, but arrivals are still increasing, and both shipments and arrivals will increase in the future. Port inventories are decreasing, and steel mills are replenishing stocks out of rigid demand, resulting in a neutral supply - demand structure [1][8] - Market sentiment: The anti - involution policy has been mentioned again. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level [1][8][9] - Price range: [750, 785] [1] Coke - Supply - demand: The production of independent coke enterprises has declined recently, but the production of steel mills' coke enterprises remains high. The high absolute level of hot metal production guarantees the demand for raw materials. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high [1][12] - Market sentiment: The short - term market sentiment has improved, and the market is oscillating with a bullish trend [1][12][13] - Price range: [1510, 1540] [1] Coking Coal - Supply - demand: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than that of the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase in the future. The upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high [1][16] - Market sentiment: Spot transactions have improved, and the overall market sentiment has improved, with a short - term bullish trend [1][16][17] - Price range: [900, 930] [1] Ferroalloys a. Manganese Silicon - Supply - demand: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports prices, but there are expectations of cost loosening due to the decline in electricity costs in multiple production areas and the slight drop in the far - month quotes of some mines. The actual demand may be under pressure as the off - season approaches [1][18][19] - Market sentiment: Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating with a bullish trend. In the medium term, prices may be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][19][20] - Price range: [5685, 5880] [1] b. Silicon Iron - Supply - demand: Both supply and demand have decreased. After the reduction of electricity prices in production areas, the cost line has further declined. The factory inventory level is still relatively high, and some factories have plans to resume production, while the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction [1][18][19] - Market sentiment: Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, with limited supply - demand contradictions, and the market is expected to oscillate within a certain range [1][19][20] - Price range: [5390, 5580] [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For silicon - manganese, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment, with prices oscillating strongly. However, the supply - demand situation will gradually return to a loose state, and the medium - term price may face downward pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6000] [3][4]. - For silicon - iron, the short - term market is also sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within a range, with the reference range for the main contract being [5300, 5750] [49][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon - Manganese - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates continued to rise, with more restarts in Yunnan. The overall supply is at a high level for the same period [3][10]. - Demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 239.81 tons, but the absolute level is still high, providing rigid support for silicon - manganese demand. The procurement volume of the iconic steel mill in July increased, but the price - pressing sentiment remains [3][16]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased slightly, while the delivery inventory continued to decline but remains at an absolute high level [3]. - Cost - Profit: Manganese ore prices showed a split, with oxide ore prices falling and semi - carbonate ore prices rising slightly. The actual transaction of manganese ore was average. Power costs in multiple production areas decreased, reducing the loss degree but the whole production area is still in a loss state [3]. - **Market Review** - Spot market: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by 30 - 80 yuan/ton [7][9]. - Supply: Production continued to rise, with stable operations in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and more restarts in Yunnan [10][11]. - Demand: Hot - metal output and rebar production decreased [12][16]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The inquiry price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous round, and the procurement volume increased by 2900 tons [19]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased by 0.15 tons week - on - week [20]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in the production area was reduced compared with last week [22]. - Manganese ore price: Port manganese ore prices decreased slightly [26][27]. - Manganese ore shipment data: The shipment and arrival volume continued to rise, and the port clearance volume declined from a high level [32]. - Manganese ore port inventory: Port inventory remained at a low level, with the national port inventory increasing by 2.6 tons and Tianjin Port inventory increasing by 3.5 tons [34][36]. - Manganese ore manufacturer inventory: The average available days of manganese ore inventory increased in most areas [38]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [39][40]. Silicon - Iron - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly, with restarts and shutdowns in different areas. The overall operation in Ningxia was relatively stable [49]. - Demand: Steel mills' new round of tenders has started, and the procurement volume of the iconic steel mill increased. Non - steel demand for magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the export volume from January to May decreased by 14.17% compared with the same period last year [49]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week, and the delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 9.9 tons [49]. - Cost - Profit: The semi - coke market was weakly stable, and electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas, reducing the loss degree in some areas [49]. - **Market Review** - Spot price: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by different degrees [53][55]. - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly [56][57]. - Steel demand: The weekly demand for silicon - iron decreased [60]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The procurement volume increased by 500 tons compared with June [63]. - Non - steel demand: Magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the silicon - iron export volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [64][66]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week [67]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in some production areas was reduced compared with last week [69]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [71].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation.内外基本面偏空，短期供应充足，看多追多操作需谨慎 [1][2][3] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term oscillation.虽有高关税和低进口支撑，但豆粕替代作用增强，缺乏明显驱动，短期区间行情对待 [1][4][5][7] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish bias.多空因素交织，6月马棕榈油库存意外累库，继续追多看多操作需谨慎 [1][8][9] - **Cotton**: Rebound under pressure.USDA报告多空交织，国内新棉生长好但需求弱，棉价万四位置承压 [1][10][11][12][13] - **Red Dates**: Sell on rallies.新季枣树生长良好，库存高需求弱，关注中下旬逢高沽空机会 [1][14][15] - **Live Pigs**: Weak oscillation.养殖端出栏节奏和二育入场影响短期行情，中长期产能过剩，猪价反弹空间有限 [1][16][17][18] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘2976元/吨，涨0.74%；全国现货均价2914.86元/吨，涨0.90% [2] - **Supply**: 7月美豆种植天气基本顺利，南美丰产定局；国内港口及油厂大豆、豆粕进入累库阶段，饲料企业库存高于去年同期，补库积极性减缓 [1] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，全国港口大豆库存788万吨，环比减20.80万吨；125家油厂大豆库存636.4万吨，环比减29.47万吨，豆粕库存82.24万吨，环比增13.08万吨 [3] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘2633元/吨，涨0.84%；全国现货均价2613.16元/吨，涨0.73% [4] - **Supply**: 欧盟及加籽种植天气降雨偏低，加籽种植面积同比下降；国内7 - 9月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加100%加菜粕进口关税 [1] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，沿海地区主要油厂菜籽库存16.2万吨，环比减2.6万吨；菜粕库存0.46万吨，环比减0.64万吨 [7] Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: 期货主力日收盘8682元/吨，涨0.51%；全国均价8840元/吨，涨0.28% [8] - **Supply**: 东南亚棕榈油累库周期开启，美国威胁对印尼征32%进口关税，印尼出口或下滑，马来西亚关税较低 [9] - **Inventory**: 截至7月4日，全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存53.51万吨，环比减0.23万吨 [9] Cotton - **Market Situation**: 期货主力CF2509收13885元/吨，涨0.14%；国内现货15282元/吨，涨0.53% [10][11] - **Supply**: 美棉播种基本完成，优良率提升，出口增加，但USDA调增新季产量及期末库存；国内新棉生长良好，实播面积增加，5月进口棉减少 [1][11][12][13] - **Demand**: 下游订单走弱，企业开机率低于去年同期，终端市场成交放缓 [1][13] Red Dates - **Market Situation**: 主力合约CJ2601收10600元/吨，增仓上行0.95% [15] - **Supply**: 新季枣树生长良好，产区预估产量正常或略减，库存高于同期 [15] - **Demand**: 需求淡季，下游采购积极性一般，后市干果需求难显著走强 [15] Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: 期货主力Ih2509收14345元/吨，跌0.21%；全国外三元现货14910元/吨 [16] - **Supply**: 短期出栏量减少，规模场挺价；中长期产能过剩，预计下半年出栏量仍有增长空间 [17][18] - **Demand**: 消费淡季，需求稳中趋弱 [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Expected to oscillate, with a strategy of lightly shorting and buying call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of 515 - 535 yuan/barrel [1][3][5] - **LPG**: Expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, with a strategy of temporary observation. PG is expected to be in the range of 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton [1][6][8] - **L**: Expected to have a short - term long and long - term short trend, with a strategy of buying on dips. L is expected to be in the range of 7250 - 7400 yuan/ton [1][10][11] - **PP**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds and opportunistically taking a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is expected to be in the range of 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [1][13][14] - **PVC**: Expected to have a short - term long and long - term short trend, with a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. V is expected to be in the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan/ton [1][16] - **PX**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. PX is expected to be in the range of 6690 - 6790 yuan/ton [1][17][18] - **PTA/PR**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. TA is expected to be in the range of 4680 - 4770 yuan/ton [1][19][21] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. EG is expected to be in the range of 4280 - 4350 yuan/ton [1][22][24] - **Glass**: Expected to be long on rebounds, with a strategy of going long based on the daily moving average. FG is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1100 yuan/ton [2][26][27] - **Soda Ash**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. SA is expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2][29][30] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to continue to rebound, with a strategy of following the upward trend. SH is expected to be in the range of 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [2][32][33] - **Methanol**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. MA is expected to be in the range of 2360 - 2400 yuan/ton [2][34] - **Urea**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. UR is expected to be in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan/ton [2] - **Asphalt**: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of lightly shorting. BU is expected to be in the range of 3600 - 3700 yuan/ton [2] - **Propylene**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. Propylene is expected to be in the range of 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On July 11, WTI rose 2.82%, Brent rose 2.51%, and SC fell 3.11% [3] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increase in August. However, the oil price has strong support due to the consumption peak season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the official OSP in August. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand growth is expected to slow down. US crude oil inventory increased by 710 million barrels to 426 million barrels in the week ending July 4 [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short - position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of 515 - 535 yuan/barrel [5] LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the PG main contract closed at 4164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4590 (+0), 4496 (+2), and 4620 (-10) yuan/ton respectively [6] - **Basic Logic**: Upstream oil prices are the dominant factor. Although oil prices are supported in the short term, LPG supply is relatively sufficient, so it oscillates in a narrow range. PDH device profit remained unchanged at - 384 yuan/ton as of July 11. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Inventory increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe. PG is expected to be in the range of 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton [8] L - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of L contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 7291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5%. The North China basis was - 101 (month - on - month increase of 28) [10] - **Basic Logic**: Although the cost support has improved and the agricultural film start - up rate has increased month - on - month, the downstream demand for polyethylene is in the off - season. Some devices are planned for maintenance, and the supply pressure is expected to ease marginally. However, new devices are planned to be put into production in July - August, with a total capacity of 2.05 million tons, so the medium - and long - term outlook is weak [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. L is expected to be in the range of 7250 - 7400 yuan/ton [10] PP - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of PP contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 7069 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The East China basis was 49 (month - on - month increase of 34), and the number of warehouse receipts increased [13] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support has improved, and the export profit margin has turned positive. However, the continuous increase in warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space. Device restart plans are increasing, and the production is expected to increase this week. New capacity of 2 million tons is planned to be added in the third quarter, so the medium - and long - term supply is under pressure [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and opportunistically take a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is expected to be in the range of 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [13] PVC - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the prices of PVC contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 4980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2%. The Changzhou basis was - 120 (month - on - month increase of 60), and the number of warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Basic Logic**: Policy expectations drive the disk to rebound, and the price of动力煤 has risen. However, export orders have weakened month - on - month, the off - season inventory accumulation pressure is obvious, and the social inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The production is expected to increase next week, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Bohua and Wanhua. The domestic demand is in the seasonal off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. V is expected to be in the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan/ton [16] PX - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of PX in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The PX09 contract closed at 6694 (-88) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 74 (+10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 426 (+88) yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices are operating at a relatively high load. Supply and demand are in a tight balance. PX inventory is decreasing but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and the basis is strong. It fluctuates with the cost recently [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long and look for shorting opportunities at high levels. PX is expected to be in the range of 6690 - 6790 yuan/ton [18] PTA/PR - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the PTA price in East China was 4715 (-20) yuan/ton. The TA09 contract closed at 4700 (-42) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 38 (+26) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 15 (+22) yuan/ton [19] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is abundant. The demand is expected to weaken, and the downstream polyester production reduction load is continuously declining at a high level, and the terminal weaving start - up load continues to decline. The inventory is decreasing, and the basis is weakening [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities at high levels. TA is expected to be in the range of 4680 - 4770 yuan/ton [21] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4383 (-3) yuan/ton. The EG09 contract closed at 4305 (-20) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was - 26 (+7) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 78 (+17) yuan/ton [22] - **Basic Logic**: Recently, the number of domestic and overseas device overhauls is less than that of restarts, and the arrival volume is lower than the same period. However, the expected arrival volume is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. The demand is weakening, and the downstream polyester production reduction load is decreasing, and the terminal weaving start - up continues to decline. The low inventory supports the disk price, and the oil price is oscillating strongly recently [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly go long and look for shorting opportunities at high levels. EG is expected to be in the range of 4280 - 4350 yuan/ton [24] Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market quotation increased, and the disk rose slightly. The Hubei basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly [26] - **Basic Logic**: The high - level meeting emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity, and the market expects the technological improvement process of coal - fired production lines to accelerate. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, the production this week has increased slightly, the inventory of glass enterprises has continued to decline, but it is still 10% higher than the same period last year. The fuel price has increased, and the spot quotation has been raised [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long based on the daily moving average. FG is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1100 yuan/ton [27] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot price of heavy soda ash increased, the disk rose, the main contract basis decreased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts increased [29] - **Basic Logic**: The high - level meeting mentioned supply - side capacity reduction, which boosted the morale of the industrial chain. However, as the impact of policy speculation weakens, the center of gravity of soda ash has declined, and soda ash manufacturers have accumulated inventory again. The supply of the soda ash market is at a high level, and the inventory of soda ash plants is difficult to reduce. The downstream support is okay, but the terminal consumption is weak [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. SA is expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [30] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price of caustic soda was partially raised, the disk center of gravity moved up, the basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [32] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has a summer overhaul season inventory reduction expectation. The overall start - up of caustic soda is still at a high level, and there is an expectation of new capacity commissioning. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The main downstream alumina start - up has rebounded, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has shrunk in May. The cost support has moved down. The liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Follow the upward trend. SH is expected to be in the range of 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [33] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 11, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2381 (-23) yuan/ton. The main 09 contract of methanol closed at 2370 (-28) yuan/ton. The methanol East China basis was 11 (+13) yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol devices are under overhaul, but the comprehensive start - up load remains relatively high. Overseas methanol devices have recovered to the same - period high. The demand has a negative feedback, the load of coastal MTO external procurement devices has continued to decline, and the start - up load of traditional demand is generally high. The social inventory has increased, and the port basis has weakened [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. MA is expected to be in the range of 2360 - 2400 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short - term, and lay out short positions in the medium - term [1][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short - term [10][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short - term [14][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. For rebar, production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, and total inventory has slightly decreased. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand have slightly declined month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: On the fundamental side, the demand - side hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply - side shipping rush is over, but arrivals are still increasing. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The production of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the production of steel mills' coking enterprises is still high. The absolute level of hot metal production is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Short - term market sentiment has improved [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved [1][16]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost loosening. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, the cost line has moved down, factory inventory is relatively high, and the difficulty of de - stocking has increased [1][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Rebar - **Price Range**: [3110, 3150] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current trading logic has shifted from industrial logic to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic. The market is bullish under the background of basis repair [1][5]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price Range**: [3250, 3290] [1] - **Market Situation**: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas. The market is bullish under sentiment and expectation trading [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Range**: [750, 780] [1] - **Market Situation**: Short - term participation within the range, and medium - term short - position layout [1][9] 3.3 Coke - **Price Range**: [1520, 1550] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term, with the market oscillating strongly [1][13] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price Range**: [910, 935] [1] - **Market Situation**: Bullish in the short - term [1][17] 3.5 Ferroalloys 3.5.1 Ferromanganese - **Price Range**: [5650, 5840] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][20] 3.5.2 Ferrosilicon - **Price Range**: [5365, 5555] [1] - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within the range [1][20]