Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bullish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical disturbances boost oil prices, but there is a large downward pressure on oil prices in the medium - to - long term due to supply surplus. For other energy - chemical products, their trends are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and seasonal demand [1][2][4] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On September 26, WTI rose 1.14%, Brent rose 0.93%, and SC rose 0.04%. The international oil price rose and then fell last Friday [5] - **Basic Logic**: In mid - to - late September, Ukraine attacked Russian refineries, causing oil prices to rebound. The focus is on the October 5 OPEC+ meeting. In the medium - to - long term, supply surplus may push oil prices down to around $60 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply was affected by pipeline attacks and export resumptions; demand in India decreased in August; US commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending September 19 [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [490 - 500] for SC [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PG main contract closed at 4258 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price weakened, downstream chemical demand increased, but supply was abundant due to high refinery operating rates and high warehouse receipts, suppressing LPG prices [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton (-10) [16] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following the cost in the short term. Supply is expected to increase, while demand is supported by the peak season of shed films. Pay attention to downstream restocking [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton (-5) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, supply pressure may ease, and downstream demand is entering the peak season. Pay attention to downstream restocking [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16) [26] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is stronger than demand, and social inventory has been accumulating for 14 weeks. However, low prices and positive macro sentiment support the bottom. Pay attention to restocking and inventory reduction [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PX spot price was 6676 (-21) yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease. PX inventory is high, and the cost - end oil price is under pressure [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6630 - 6720] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PTA spot price in East China was 4590 (+5) yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance, and demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand is in tight balance, expected to be loose in Q4 [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices and buy call options. Focus on the range of [4630 - 4690] for TA01 [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 26, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4311 (+6) yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly reduced load, overseas devices changed little. Terminal consumption improved short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. Inventory is low, supporting prices [38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4200 - 4255] for EG01 [39] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 26, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2293 (-1) yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains large, but demand has improved, and social inventory is decreasing. Cost support is stabilizing [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [43] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 26, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1600 (-10) yuan/ton [47] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hold for the time being [1][6][7][8] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1][9][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1][13][15][16] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish [1][17][18][19] 2. Report's Core Views - **Rebar**: Although there are positive changes in supply and demand, the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and it will maintain a range - bound operation [1][4][5] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Supply and demand are relatively stable with little contradiction, and there is a lack of upward driving force on the supply - demand side, maintaining a range - bound operation [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - making water output increases, and the restocking of steel mills and ports is nearly finished. The fundamentals driving force is weakening, and it is recommended to hold for the time being [1][6][7][8] - **Coke**: It has entered the price - increase stage, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will follow coking coal in range - bound operation [1][9][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is recovering, and the supply shortage has improved. There is little short - term supply - demand contradiction, and it will operate within a range [1][13][15][16] - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost side strongly supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited. The market may fluctuate after the rapid release of the previous decline sentiment [1][17][18][19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the price increase. The market may fluctuate after the rapid release of the previous decline sentiment [1][17][18][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar futures prices (01, 05) declined, while the 10 - contract rose slightly; hot - rolled coil futures prices all declined. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in most regions decreased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar's apparent demand improved month - on - month, production remained flat, and inventory continued to decrease; hot - rolled coil's apparent demand changed little, production declined slightly, and inventory increased slightly [4] Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore futures prices (01, 05, 09) all declined. Spot prices of some iron ore varieties remained unchanged, and some decreased [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The iron - making water output increased again, and the inventory of steel mills and ports both increased. The restocking is nearly finished, and the overseas ore shipment is expected to decline [7] Coke - **Price Information**: Coke futures prices (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month contracts) all declined. Spot prices of coke in various regions remained unchanged [10] - **Supply and Demand**: Coke production decreased slightly month - on - month, but inventory increased. The iron - making water output continued to rise, and the raw material demand remained high [11] Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Coking coal futures prices (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month contracts) all declined. Spot prices of coking coal in various regions remained unchanged [14] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic coking coal production continued to recover, and the Mongolian coal import volume was high. The iron - making water output increased slightly, and the total inventory continued to increase [15] Ferroalloys - **Price Information**: Futures prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon all declined. Spot prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon in various regions remained unchanged [17] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of manganese silicon in the production area decreased slightly, and the subsequent inventory reduction may face difficulties; the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent, and the enterprise inventory decreased slightly [18]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views - **Gold**: Long - term holding. Despite PCE not supporting significant rate cuts, risks such as the US government shutdown and dovish statements from Fed officials provide support. The long - term supporting logic for gold remains unchanged with the start of the rate - cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1]. - **Silver**: Long - term holding for long - term positions, light - position for short - term positions during holidays. Silver follows gold's fluctuations and is also supported by the sentiment of other metals like copper. Global policy stimulus is evident, demand for silver is strong, and there is an obvious supply - demand gap [1]. - **Copper**: Long - term holding. The bullish factors from the Indonesian mine accident have been fully digested by the market, and the Fed's October rate - cut expectation is slightly weakened. In the long - term, copper is still favored due to its strategic importance in the China - US game and the shortage of copper concentrates [1][7]. - **Zinc**: Close short positions and prepare for empty or light positions during holidays. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds as supply increases and demand decreases [1][11]. - **Lead**: Price rebound is under pressure. Enterprises for primary and recycled lead are resuming production, while the expectation of the consumption peak season is still in doubt [1]. - **Tin**: Price rebound is under pressure. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, there are maintenance and production halts in the domestic supply side, and terminal consumption provides support [1]. - **Aluminum**: Price is under pressure. The expected decrease in overseas bauxite arrivals and the unsmooth destocking of aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas contribute to this [1]. - **Nickel**: Price is under pressure. The impact of overseas disturbances on the Indonesian nickel mine has weakened, domestic refined nickel supply remains high, and downstream stainless - steel inventory is piling up again [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rebound is under pressure. Supply decreases month - on - month while downstream stocking boosts the operating rate, and there is a co - existence of cost support and high inventory [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Cautiously bullish. There is uncertainty in polysilicon production in October, and the execution of industry production control and sales reduction needs attention. Strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wide - range oscillation. Production continues to increase, but the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks. Downstream pre - holiday restocking is basically over [1]. Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - Despite inflation meeting expectations, risk events such as the government shutdown provided support for the bulls, and gold and silver reached new highs [2]. Basic Logic - The US government is approaching a shutdown, and the political deadlock between the two parties remains unresolved. The White House has started formulating a "government shutdown plan". Although historical experience shows that the issue will eventually be resolved, the short - term impact on the market cannot be underestimated. - The uncertainty of US rate cuts has increased. The US core PCE price index in August met expectations, and real consumer spending exceeded expectations. Inflation remains sticky, consumption is still strong, Trump's tariffs are back, and internal differences are widening. - Consumer confidence has significantly decreased. The final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in September dropped to a four - month low, and the inflation expectations were slightly lower than the initial and previous values. - In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring, and may continue its long - term bull market [3]. Strategy Recommendation - The market performance is strong, with short - term support at 840 for gold and around 10200 for silver. Long - term long positions can hold through holidays, and short - term long positions can hold with light positions. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Group 3: Copper Market Review - The price of Shanghai copper has pulled back from its high [6]. Industrial Logic - The supply of copper concentrates is tight. The accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has intensified the shortage concern. Although China's copper ore imports increased in August, the imports of unforged copper decreased month - on - month, and the pressure on the smelting end has increased. In September, the output of electrolytic copper decreased due to smelter maintenance. Global visible inventory is at a high level, high copper prices suppress demand, and the market trading is dull [6]. Strategy Recommendation - With the approaching of the National Day holiday and the weakening of the Fed's October rate - cut expectation, it is recommended that short - term speculative long positions take profit, prepare for empty or light positions during holidays, and long - term strategic long positions hold with option protection. Industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged. In the long - term, copper is still favored [7]. Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has oscillated weakly and broken through the key support at 21800 [10]. Industrial Logic - The supply of zinc concentrates is loose in 2025. Although the imports in August decreased month - on - month, they increased year - on - year. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. The inventory of SHFE zinc has increased significantly, while the LME zinc inventory continues to decline. The demand from downstream enterprises is weak, and the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has decreased [10]. Strategy Recommendation - As the macro and sector sentiment has cooled down, zinc has returned to a weak reality. It is recommended to close short positions and prepare for empty or light positions during holidays. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - The price of aluminum has faced pressure in its rebound, and alumina has shown a weak trend at a low level [13]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas rate cuts met expectations. Domestic production increased slightly in August, and inventory decreased. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises increased, and enterprises were actively stocking up before the long holiday. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect September arrivals, and the supply pressure has increased with the increase in operating capacity and the opening of the import window [14]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20500, 21300] [15]. Group 6: Nickel Market Review - The price of nickel has faced pressure and weakened, and stainless steel has shown a downward trend [17]. Industrial Logic - Overseas rate cuts met expectations. The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel is in excess, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The domestic pure nickel inventory has continued to accumulate slightly. For stainless steel, the consumption peak season is uncertain, inventory has increased, and the supply has also increased [18]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000, 123000] [19]. Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 has pulled back after reaching a high and closed slightly lower at the end of the session [21]. Industrial Logic - Supply has not significantly shrunk, with weekly production remaining above 20,000 tons and the operating rate close to 50%. Demand has received positive support from relevant policies, and downstream orders are scheduled until the end of the year. Total inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks, and smelter inventory is significantly lower than last year [22]. Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [72900, 74100] [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously Bullish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [1] - PP: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [1] - PVC: Low - level Volatility [1] - PX: Cautiously Bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bullish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [4] - Glass: Short - term Bullish, Long - term Bearish [4] - Soda Ash: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical disturbances, supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and cost changes. For some products, geopolitical events can cause short - term price fluctuations, while long - term trends are mainly determined by supply - demand fundamentals. For example, crude oil is affected by geopolitical events in the short term but faces long - term supply surplus pressure [1][6]. - Some products are influenced by the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season. However, the actual demand may not meet expectations, affecting their price trends. For instance, PTA and MEG have weaker demand during this period [2][34][39]. - Inventory levels play a crucial role in determining product prices. For example, high inventory levels can suppress prices, while low inventory levels can provide some support [1][11][34]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with WTI down 0.02%, Brent up 0.18%, and SC up 1.37% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances led to a short - term oil price rebound, and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories provided short - term support. However, there is a long - term supply surplus, and prices may drop to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may increase as Iraq's Kurdish region resumes oil exports. Demand in India decreased in August. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending September 19 [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [485 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4254 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Weaker cost from crude oil, increased downstream chemical demand, and approaching holidays led to inventory reduction by refineries, suppressing LPG prices. High warehouse receipts also pressured the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4200 - 4300] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 closing price (main contract) was 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term rebound following cost, with increased supply expected as previous maintenance devices return. Import volume is expected to rise. Demand is strengthening as the shed film season begins [17]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 closing price (main contract) was 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, and the market rebounded. Supply pressure may ease as the upstream parking ratio is 18%. Downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [6850 - 6950] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 closing price (main contract) was 4935 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and social inventory has increased for 14 consecutive weeks. Low prices and positive macro sentiment support the market. Pay attention to downstream replenishment before the National Day [27]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have little change, while demand from PTA is expected to weaken. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still relatively high [30]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at a profit. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6585 - 6680] for PX511 [31] PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure may ease as device maintenance is expected to increase. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is under - performing, and demand is weakening. Inventory is decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions at a profit. Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and buy call options [34] MEG - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is weak during the consumption season, but low inventory supports the price [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4210 - 4255] for EG01 [40] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the methanol spot price in East China was 2299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and overseas device load has slightly declined. Demand has improved, and social inventory accumulation has slowed down. Cost support is stabilizing [42][43] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2331 - 2361] for MA01 [44] Urea - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak both domestically and overseas. Inventory is continuously increasing, and cost support is expected to weaken [47][48] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for long - term long - buying opportunities at low prices [2] Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish. Geopolitical factors boost energy prices in the short term, and the approaching consumption season supports demand. As of September 19, US natural gas inventory increased, and cooling weather will increase demand [4] Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously Bearish. Weaker cost from crude oil, increased supply pressure, and demand affected by typhoons in the south. Valuation is relatively high [4] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Core View**: Short - term Bullish, Long - term Bearish. The market is rising due to anti - competition factors. Supply is under pressure, and demand from the real estate industry is weak. Pay attention to downstream replenishment during the peak season [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term long, long - term short, or short the spread between soda ash and glass [4] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Short - term Bearish with Rebound Opportunities. Demand has improved, but the expected glass production cut may suppress demand. Supply is expected to be abundant as summer maintenance ends [4] - **Strategy**: In the medium - to long - term, short on rebounds [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating but provides individual ratings for each metal: Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, and Polysilicon are rated ★★; Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, and Lithium Carbonate are rated ★ [1] Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver are supported by the US government shutdown risk and dovish statements from Fed officials, with a long - term bullish outlook [1][3] - Copper prices are driven by macro - micro resonance, and there is a long - term positive view on copper due to supply shortages and strategic importance [1][6][7] - Zinc shows a weak rebound in the short - term, with a long - term view of supply increase and demand decrease [1][9][10] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise as the peak season approaches, with short - term buying opportunities [1][13][14] - Nickel prices rebound but are restricted by demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][17][18] - Lithium carbonate is in a state of both supply and demand growth, showing short - term strength [1][21][22] Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Despite the decrease in rate - cut expectations, the increase in future uncertainty risks has led to a significant rise in gold and silver prices [2] - **Logic**: US economic data is unexpectedly good, reducing the probability of rate cuts. However, the US government shutdown risk and dovish statements from Fed officials support gold and silver. In the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy**: Gold has short - term support at 840, and silver has support around 10000. Long - term long positions in both can be continued [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper soared by over 3%, hitting a new high for the year [6] - **Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight due to a mine accident at Grasberg. The processing fee TC is deeply inverted, and domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September. Both domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing [6] - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative long positions in copper can be held, with trailing stop - loss. Long - term strategic long positions should be held with option protection. For the long - term, copper is highly regarded [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc showed a weak rebound, returning to the 22,000 mark [9] - **Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply will be abundant in 2025. Domestic smelter maintenance in September will reduce zinc ingot production. The SHFE zinc inventory has increased, while the LME zinc inventory continues to decline. Downstream enterprises are restocking before the holiday [9] - **Strategy**: Close short positions in Shanghai zinc before the National Day holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina stabilized at a low level [12] - **Logic**: Overseas rate cuts are in line with expectations. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly in August, and the inventory changed slightly. The downstream processing industry's operating rate increased slightly. Alumina supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite supply [13] - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions in Shanghai aluminum can be considered, with attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded and then declined, and stainless steel prices were under pressure [16] - **Logic**: Overseas rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic nickel industry's supply and demand are divided, with an oversupply of refined nickel. The stainless steel market has a consumption peak - season expectation, but the actual situation needs to be observed [17] - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement in downstream consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high, with a nearly 1% increase [20] - **Logic**: Supply remains stable, and demand has received multiple policy supports. The total inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks, and the smelter inventory is lower than last year [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of 73,500 - 75,200 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bearish outlook**: For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, the short - term trends are either bearish or require caution. For example, soybean meal has limited upside due to harvest and inventory, while cotton is pressured by supply and weak demand [1][8][11]. - **High - level oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation due to trade disputes and inventory cycles [1]. - **Weak - oscillation in the short - term**: Palm oil and soybean oil are likely to experience weak oscillations in the short - term because of policy uncertainties and inventory concerns [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price data**: The futures price of soybean meal (main contract, daily close) is 2967 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan or 1.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3025.43 yuan/ton, up 37.43 yuan or 1.25% [2]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 898.3 million tons, down 70.30 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 694.66 million tons, down 38.54 million tons (5.26%) week - on - week, and their soybean meal inventory is 125 million tons, up 8.56 million tons (7.35%) week - on - week [3]. - **Market analysis**: US soybean harvest has started, and the short - term domestic supply is sufficient. Due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the continuous downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress during the harvest season [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price data**: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract, daily close) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan or 2.05% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2571.58 yuan/ton, up 37.9 yuan or 1.50% [4]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 4.6 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [5]. - **Market analysis**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed shows that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations will take time, but the impact of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade limits the upside. Its trend mainly follows that of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price data**: The futures price of palm oil (main contract, daily close) is 9222 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price is 9250 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 2.04% [6]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 58.51 million tons, down 5.64 million tons (8.79%) week - on - week [7]. - **Market analysis**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy and expected inventory build - up in Malaysian palm oil in September may suppress its performance before the double festivals. It is expected to show a weak - oscillation trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to Malaysian palm oil export in September and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price data**: The futures price of cotton (CF2601, main contract) is 13530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.18% from the previous value. The domestic spot price is 15107 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **Supply - demand data**: US cotton harvest is progressing, and other northern hemisphere countries are also about to enter the harvest season, increasing supply pressure. Domestic new cotton harvest has started, and the demand performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" is not ideal, and the foreign trade outlook is weak [9][10][11]. - **Market analysis**: It is expected to maintain a pressured - oscillation market. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short - term [11]. 3.5 Jujube - **Price data**: The futures price of jujube (CJ2601, main contract) is 10970 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 1.72% from the previous value. The price of Hebei special - grade grey jujube has a slight increase [12]. - **Supply - demand data**: The estimated new - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap considering the carry - over inventory. The demand in the sales area is weak [14]. - **Market analysis**: Concerns about quality are gradually easing, but there may be large price fluctuations before November. It is recommended to be cautious in trading and look for opportunities to short on price rebounds [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price data**: The futures price of live pigs (Lh2511, main contract) is 12685 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan or 0.35% from the previous value. The national average spot price is 12840 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [16]. - **Supply - demand data**: In the short - to - medium term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is gradually improving. In the long - term, the number of fertile sows is decreasing [17]. - **Market analysis**: The spot price is under pressure. In the short - term, the 11 - contract should be short - allocated on rebounds, and the inter - month reverse - spread strategy should be maintained [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][3][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions initially, then suggested to close long positions [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1][10][13] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1][14][17] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish, suggest to take profit on long positions [1][18][20] Core Views - **Steel Products**: The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, with real estate and infrastructure still dragging. The supply is high, and after the macro - event is realized, the sentiment has cooled down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to trade in a range [1][3][5] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output has increased, and the supply has decreased. With pre - National Day restocking by steel mills, the fundamentals are strong in the short term, but the upward driving force is insufficient after the restocking is nearly finished [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Coke has started the first round of price increase but it is not yet finalized. The coking enterprises' profits are acceptable, and production is relatively stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to trade in a range [1][10][12] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production is recovering, and imports are at a high level. The demand is guaranteed due to high molten iron output. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there may be policy disturbances later, and it will trade in a range [1][14][16] - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply is still high, and the subsequent destocking may be difficult. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, but high warehouse receipts suppress the price increase. After the previous rapid decline, the market may fluctuate [1][18][19] Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: The apparent demand has improved month - on - month, production is flat, and inventory continues to decline, but the destocking speed needs further observation. The overall supply of steel is high, and downstream demand is weak [1][4][5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The apparent demand has little change, production has slightly declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The overall change is small, and supply - demand is relatively stable [1][4][5] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The molten iron output has increased, and the supply has decreased. Steel mills and ports have increased their inventories, and the restocking is nearly finished. The short - term fundamentals are strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [1][7][8] Coke - **Market Conditions**: Coke has entered the price - increase stage, with obvious game between coking enterprises and steel mills. The coking enterprises' profits are acceptable, production is relatively stable, but production has slightly decreased and inventory has increased. The demand is high due to high molten iron output, and it follows coking coal to trade in a range [1][10][12] Coking Coal - **Market Conditions**: Domestic production is recovering, approaching last year's level, and imports are at a high level. The demand is guaranteed by high molten iron output. The total inventory is increasing, and the mine inventory is transferred downstream. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there may be policy disturbances later [1][14][16] Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased but is still at a high level. After the new round of restocking demand is released, the subsequent destocking may be difficult. The cost supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited [1][18][19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased, but the warehouse receipts are still high, suppressing the price increase. After the previous rapid decline, the market may fluctuate [1][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon [1] - **Long Position Holding**: Iron ore [1] Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: After the macro sentiment cools down, it will operate within a range. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors still act as a drag. The overall demand for steel is weak, and there is a lack of upward driving force on the supply and demand side [3][5] - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are strong due to the increase in molten iron production, the reduction in supply, and the pre-National Day restocking by steel mills [1][8] - **Coke**: It has initiated the first round of price hikes, but they have not been implemented yet. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will operate within a range following coking coal [1][12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic production continues to recover, and the supply margin has improved. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not significant, but the supply-side policy may cause disturbances in the later stage, and it will operate within a range [1][16] - **Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and there may be difficulties in subsequent destocking in the production areas. The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward price limit. After the rapid release of the previous downward sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][20][21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Variety Views**: The apparent demand for rebar has improved month-on-month, production has decreased slightly, and inventory has begun to decline, but the destocking speed remains to be observed. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil has declined, and production and inventory have increased slightly, with relatively stable supply and demand [4] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Due to limited supply and demand driving forces and the cooling of macro sentiment, both rebar and hot-rolled coil will operate within a range [5] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [2] Iron Ore - **Variety Views**: The fundamentals are strong due to the increase in molten iron production, the reduction in supply, and the pre-National Day restocking by steel mills [8] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Hold long positions [9] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of iron ore futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [6] Coke - **Variety Views**: It has initiated the first round of price hikes, but they have not been implemented yet. The coking enterprise profit is acceptable, and production is relatively stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will operate within a range following coking coal [12] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bearish [13] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coke futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [11] Coking Coal - **Variety Views**: The domestic production continues to recover, and the supply margin has improved. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not significant, but the supply-side policy may cause disturbances in the later stage, and it will operate within a range [16] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bearish [17] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coking coal futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [15] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Variety Views**: The fundamentals of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and there may be difficulties in subsequent destocking in the production areas. The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward price limit [20] - **Disk Operation Suggestions**: After the rapid release of the previous downward sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [21] - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Low-level oscillation [1] - **PX**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **PTA**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Urea**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [4] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish rebound [4] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances lead to a short - term oil price rebound, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. The price may decline to around $60 in the medium - to - long term [1][6]. - **LPG**: The cost - end oil price rebounds briefly, but the supply - surplus pressure increases. The price center is expected to continue to move down [1]. - **L**: It rebounds following the cost in the short term. The fundamentals show strong supply and demand, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1]. - **PP**: The cost support improves, and the price stops falling and rebounds. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is entering the peak season [1]. - **PVC**: It rebounds due to the anti - involution sentiment in the glass industry. The price is at a low level with strong exports, but the fundamentals are supply - strong and demand - weak [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease. The inventory is still relatively high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - **PTA**: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The domestic device slightly increases its load, and the overseas devices change little. The consumption season is underperforming, and it is bearish with caution [39]. - **Methanol**: The supply - side pressure remains large, but the demand improves. The cost support stabilizes, and the downside space is limited [42]. - **Urea**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakly oscillating [47]. - **Natural Gas**: The U.S. natural gas inventory accumulates more than expected, causing the price to weaken, but the demand for winter storage provides some support [4]. - **Asphalt**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply pressure increases, so the price is under pressure [4]. - **Glass**: It may be sorted at a high level in the short term. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate completion area is weak [4]. - **Soda Ash**: It rebounds following the glass. The supply is expected to be loose, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long term [4] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 2.49%, Brent rose 2.22%, and SC rose 1.47% [5] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - the oil export of the Iraq Kurdistan region to Turkey has not restarted; demand - OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand; inventory - U.S. commercial crude inventory decreased [7] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [475 - 490] for SC [8] LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4,254 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [9] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end has short - term support, but the long - term trend is downward. The demand is weakening, and the supply and inventory are increasing [11] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] for PG [12] L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,142 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [15] - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds following the cost. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is supported by the peak season of agricultural films [17] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [7,100 - 7,250] for L [17] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,877 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [20] - **Fundamentals**: The cost support improves, the supply pressure eases, and the demand enters the peak season [22] - **Strategy**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [6,830 - 6,950] for PP [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,919 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [25] - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds due to the glass industry. The price is low with strong exports, but the supply is strong and the demand is weak [27] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] for V [27] PX - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [29] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side devices change little, the demand - side PTA may have more maintenance in the later period, and the supply - demand balance is expected to ease [30] - **Strategy**: Stop losses on short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6,575 - 6,665] for PX511 [31] PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [32] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side pressure may ease, the "Golden September and Silver October" is underperforming, and the demand is weak [34] - **Strategy**: Stop losses on short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices and buy call options [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [38] - **Fundamentals**: The domestic device slightly increases its load, the overseas devices change little, and the consumption season is underperforming [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,250] for EG01 [40] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [41] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side pressure is large, but the demand improves, and the cost support stabilizes [42] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2,345 - 2,375] for MA01 [44] Urea - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,661 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [45] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, and the inventory is accumulating [47] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to go long on dips [48] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: As of the week ending September 12, the U.S. natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2,433 billion cubic feet [4] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory accumulates more than expected, the price weakens, but the demand for winter storage provides support [4] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply pressure increases [4] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: It may be sorted at a high level in the short term. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate completion area is weak [4] - **Strategy**: Observe in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not provided in the given text - **Fundamentals**: It rebounds following the glass. The supply is expected to be loose [4] - **Strategy**: Be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long-term hold, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish in the long run, ★★ [1] - Copper: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Zinc: Bearish in the medium to long term, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish in the short term, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] Core Views - Gold and silver are affected by factors such as the rise of the US dollar index and US bond yields, but the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4] - Copper prices hit a new high this year due to the mine accident in Indonesia and the tight supply of copper concentrates, and the long-term outlook is positive [5][6][7] - Zinc shows a weak rebound in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases in the medium to long term [9][10] - Aluminum prices are stabilizing and rebounding, and short-term buying on dips is recommended [11][13][14] - Nickel prices are rebounding in the short term, and short-term long positions on dips are recommended [15][17][18] - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [19][21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The US dollar and US bond yields have risen significantly, leading to a correction in gold prices as some funds leave the market due to profit-taking [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic data has unexpectedly improved, there are differences among Fed officials, and the US and the EU have reached a tariff agreement. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short-term correction of gold does not change the long-term trend. There may be support around 840 for gold and 10000 for silver in the short term. Long-term long positions can continue to be held [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper soared by more than 3%, hitting a new high this year [6] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the mine accident in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine is expected to lead to a significant reduction in global copper mine supply. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, gradually take profits on rallies, and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. For the long term, copper is still favored [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc showed a weak rebound, while London zinc oscillated strongly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance has increased in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. The inventory of Shanghai zinc has increased significantly, while the inventory of London zinc has continued to decline. The demand has been affected by the typhoon [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on short positions in Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12] - **Industrial Logic**: The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased slightly, while the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased slightly. The demand has shown a slight improvement. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded, while stainless steel prices faced pressure on the rebound [16] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of refined nickel is under pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the improvement of the peak season needs to be observed [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short-term long positions on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a decline at the end of the session [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the demand has received positive support. The total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks, and the inventory of smelters is lower than that of last year [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around the 60-day moving average [72700 - 74100] [22]