Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean meal market is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The rapeseed meal market will follow the trend of soybean meal. The palm oil market will have short - term high - level oscillations. The cotton market will stop falling and consolidate. The jujube market will operate weakly. The pig market will have weak oscillations [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main soybean meal contract closed at 2851 yuan/ton, up 1.35%. The national average spot price was 3163.43 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The average national soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis of different contracts also changed [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Brazilian soybean production is stable. Argentina may face insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days. The US - China soybean trade dispute has temporarily ended. The announced US soybean planting area decreased, but the ending inventory was higher than expected. The US will impose a 10% tariff on China in April, and China will impose a 10% tariff on US soybeans. In April, domestic soybean imports will increase, with an average monthly import of over 10 million tons from April to June [1][3]. - **Outlook**: It will continue to operate at a high level in the short term. Near - month contracts need to pay attention to the risk of weakening due to the expected increase in soybean imports in April [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The domestic coastal oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories decreased this week, and the pressure marginally improved [1][5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, which was negative for Canadian rapeseed prices. China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but rapeseed was not included, and there are many ways to deliver rapeseed meal, so the actual positive impact is limited [1][5]. - **Outlook**: It will follow the trend of soybean meal in the short term due to the lack of new fundamental guidance [1][5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 9104 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The national average price was 9605 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The inventory decreased, and the market sentiment showed changes in the proportion of bullish, bearish, and neutral views [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: The Ramadan festival in March led to a decline in international import demand. Southeast Asian palm oil production began to recover in March. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April, and the export tariff will be 124 US dollars/ton. The US plans to increase the biodiesel blending volume in 2026 and later, with the minimum increase exceeding 40% compared to 2025 [1][6][7]. - **Outlook**: It will have short - term high - level oscillations. The price is expected to change from strong to weak, and the current price increase is regarded as a rebound under event influence [1][6][7]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2505 closed at 13540 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The domestic spot price increased slightly. The international and domestic cotton inventories,开机 rates, and other indicators showed certain changes [8]. - **Influencing Factors**: The USDA slightly lowered the US cotton planting intention, which provided limited support. Domestically, the intended cotton planting area in 2025 increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The downstream demand was weak, with slow - growing orders, low开机 rates, and negative corporate profits. The export was under pressure due to tariff policies [9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: It will stop falling and consolidate in the short term, with the market waiting for macro data. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly in the range, and attention should be paid to relevant industrial policies [11]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: The main jujube contract CJ2505 closed at 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [12][13]. - **Influencing Factors**: The downstream market entered the off - season, with more arrivals in the sales area. Seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, squeezing the jujube market [13][14]. - **Outlook**: It will operate weakly in the near term, and attention should be paid to the new production season [14]. Pig - **Market Situation**: The main pig contract Lh2505 closed at 13245 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The domestic pig spot price increased slightly. The inventory,出栏 volume,开工 rate, and profit indicators showed certain changes [15][16]. - **Influencing Factors**: The supply pressure in the pig market continued to be released, with sufficient supply of standard pigs. The demand was still weak, and the second - fattening enthusiasm decreased [16][17]. - **Outlook**: It will have weak oscillations. The main 2505 contract is expected to continue to operate at a low level after being under pressure, and attention should be paid to the data of piglets for potential arbitrage opportunities in the second half of the year [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual investment outlooks for different varieties, including "strengthening," "oscillating," "rebounding," "weakening," and "going short at high levels" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple varieties in the commodity market, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, bottle chips, glass, soda ash, and methanol. It provides core views, basic logics, and strategy recommendations for each variety, along with price ranges [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Strengthening [1] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances, such as the tense relationship between the US and Iran, the unexpected decline in US crude oil production in January, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and the continued US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, have led to a rise in oil prices [1][4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium to long - term, there is a strong downward pressure on the oil price center after the third quarter due to the supply - surplus situation. In the short - term, the trend is strong, and short - position holders should be cautious. SC is expected to be in the range of [545 - 560] [5]. LPG - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The upward pressure on oil prices has increased after continuous rebounds. The fundamentals of LPG are mixed, with a decrease in commodity volume on the supply side, high port inventories, and a recent decline in downstream profits [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the strengthening of upstream crude oil and no major driving forces in the fundamentals, it is expected to oscillate. Technical indicators show short - term oscillation. Long - position holders should take profits, and bull spread options can be sold. PG is expected to be in the range of [4600 - 4700] [9]. L - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil is strong, the parking ratio has decreased significantly, and social inventories have decreased slightly. However, supply exceeds demand, and there is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production is high [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short at high levels. L is expected to be in the range of [7600 - 7740] [12]. PP - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The parking ratio remains high. In the short - term, it follows the cost - end and shows strength. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production restricts the upward space [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [7260 - 7360] [15]. PVC - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened slightly, social inventories have declined from a high level, and the warehouse receipts are being cancelled in March. The market is oscillating at a low level. The regular spring maintenance from April to May is about to start [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on pullbacks. V is expected to be in the range of [5020 - 5140] [18]. PX - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the overall maintenance volume of downstream PTA is high. The improvement in supply - demand is limited. The crude oil price has stabilized recently but is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing but remains high [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. PX is expected to be in the range of [6850 - 7020] [21]. PTA - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: PTA devices are under planned maintenance, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to ease. The downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. The inventory is slightly high [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, but the rebound height may be limited. TA is expected to be in the range of [4830 - 4930] [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Weakening [1] - **Basic Logic**: The recent increase in device maintenance has not effectively alleviated the supply pressure due to high imports. The demand is good but is expected to weaken. The cost support is weak [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The recent market is oscillating weakly, and range - bound operations are recommended. EG is expected to be in the range of [4440 - 4520] [27]. Bottle Chips - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to device capacity expansion. The soft - drink market is in the off - season, but the demand is expected to improve, and the export growth rate is high. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is expected to improve in April [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. PR is expected to be in the range of [6010 - 6080] [30]. Glass - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: Macroeconomic data has improved, the supply has declined from a low level, the terminal demand is weakly recovering, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The market is undervalued near the coal - based cost, and there is intense capital game [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1180 - 1220] [33]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Weakening [1] - **Basic Logic**: The spring maintenance is nearly over, and the supply is expected to increase. The terminal demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the speculative demand is insufficient. The inventory of soda ash factories has increased from a decline, and the absolute inventory level is high [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1370 - 1400] [35]. Methanol - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based methanol devices are entering the spring maintenance stage, but the maintenance volume is lower than expected. The supply pressure remains high. The methanol arrival volume is lower than the same period, but overseas devices are gradually resuming, and the future arrival volume is expected to increase. The demand is continuously improving, but downstream feedback needs attention. The social inventory is decreasing [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels. MA is expected to be in the range of [2470 - 2520] [1]. Urea - **Core View**: Go short at high levels [1] - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing seasonally but remains slightly high. The cost support is weak [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The current daily production of urea remains high, and the industrial demand is expected to weaken. The agricultural spring fertilization demand is about to end. The supply - demand is still loose, and chasing the rise should be cautious. UR is expected to be in the range of [1840 - 1880] [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to experience short - term high - level fluctuations due to the intertwining of multiple factors, and attention should be paid to the release of US soybean planting area data and Sino - US trade developments [1][4]. - Rapeseed meal will have short - term fluctuations, following the trend of soybean meal, and the actual positive impact of the tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed meal is limited [1][6]. - Palm oil is predicted to have short - term high - level fluctuations. Although the supply and demand factors in March are weakening, it shows a rebound due to certain events [1][8]. - Cotton is in a state of stopping decline and consolidation, with the market waiting for the official US cotton planting intention. The domestic market may maintain range - bound oscillations [1][12]. - Red dates are expected to operate weakly in the short term, as the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly [1][14]. - The price of live pigs is expected to decline slightly, with the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern restricting the price rebound space, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunities in the second half of the year [1][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The Brazilian soybean production outlook is stable, and in Argentina, rainfall will return to above - normal levels in the next 15 days. China and the US have imposed reciprocal 10% tariffs on soybeans, and the trade dispute has temporarily ended. Domestic port and soybean inventories decreased this week, while oil - mill soybean meal inventories increased. From April to June, the monthly average soybean imports will exceed 10 million tons [1][3]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,813 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,168.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18% [2]. - **Analysis**: The short - term market is in a state of high - level fluctuations. The market's bullish sentiment has weakened due to the small reduction in the estimated US soybean planting area. Attention should be paid to the release of planting area data and Sino - US trade progress. Near - month contracts face the risk of weakening due to the expected increase in soybean imports in April [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills decreased this week, but the short - term supply is generally sufficient. China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but the actual positive impact is limited [6]. - **Price Movement**: The price has fallen from a high level and is currently in a narrow - range weak consolidation, following the trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Analysis**: Short - term fluctuations are expected, and attention should be paid to the release of US soybean area data [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: In March, the Ramadan festival led to a decline in international import demand, and Southeast Asian palm oil production is gradually recovering. The domestic supply is tight, and the spot trading of palm oil is still sluggish due to the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [8]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9,088 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.27% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,673 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.06% [7]. - **Analysis**: Although the supply and demand factors in March are weakening, the price shows a rebound due to the Indonesian tariff adjustment and the US plan to increase the blending volume of biodiesel. Short - term high - level fluctuations are expected [1][8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Internationally, US cotton farmers are more likely to reduce planting areas, and US cotton exports have declined recently. Domestically, the new - season cotton planting area is expected to increase, the commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the import is shrinking. The downstream orders have improved slightly, but the export is under pressure [10][11]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract CF2505 closed at 13,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% intraday. The domestic spot price decreased slightly by 0.01% [10]. - **Analysis**: The market is in a state of stopping decline and consolidation. The US cotton has a recovery expectation, and the domestic market may maintain range - bound oscillations. Attention should be paid to the follow - up strength of consumption - promoting policies [1][12]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The trading volume in the market is low, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises has decreased slightly. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern has not improved significantly [13][14]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2505 closed at 9,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% intraday [14]. - **Analysis**: The short - term operation is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the situation of the new production season [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The supply pressure in the live pig market continues to be released, and the supply of standard pigs is sufficient. Although the demand has increased slightly, it is still weak overall [16]. - **Price Movement**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2505 closed at 13,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07% intraday. The domestic spot price remained stable [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to decline slightly. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern restricts the price rebound space. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunities in the second half of the year [1][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Crude oil is expected to experience a callback due to the release of geopolitical risks, potential price cuts by Saudi Arabia, and other factors [1][3][4] - LPG will follow the oil price in a callback, with marginal improvement in fundamentals [1][6][9] - L is expected to be weak in the short - term and face high device commissioning pressure in the long - term [1][10][11] - PP will be weak in the short - term and face device commissioning pressure in the long - term [1][12][14] - PVC will have a low - level shock in the short - term and a potential upward trend during the spring maintenance period, but long - term overcapacity will limit the rebound [1][15][17] - PX will be weak in the short - term, with limited supply - demand improvement and weak cost support, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [1][18][19] - PTA will be weak, with expected supply - side relief but weakening demand expectations, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [1][21][22] - Ethylene glycol will be weak, with supply - side pressure and weakening demand expectations, and range - bound operation is recommended [1][24][25] - Bottle chips will be weak, with increasing supply pressure but positive demand expectations and falling inventory, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [1][27][28] - Glass is expected to experience a callback due to insufficient sales sustainability [1][30][31] - Soda ash will be weak, with increasing supply and limited demand, and high inventory pressure [1][32][33] - Methanol will be strong in the short - term but face negative feedback from downstream profits, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [1][35][36] - Urea is recommended for short - selling, with increasing supply pressure and weakening demand expectations [1] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Last Friday, international oil prices declined, with WTI down 0.80%, Brent down 0.79%, and domestic SC down 0.31% [2] - **Basic Logic**: The recent oil price increase was driven by US sanctions, but news of potential Saudi price cuts and other factors led to a callback. Supply - side factors include Iraq's large oil reserves and exports, while demand in some countries decreased. US inventory data showed a decline in crude oil inventory and an increase in strategic inventory [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the oil price center is likely to move down after the third quarter. In the short - term, it is recommended to sell call spread options, with SC focusing on the range of [530 - 550] [4] LPG - **Market Review**: On March 28, the PG main contract closed at 4620 yuan/ton, down 0.38% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends [5][7] - **Basic Logic**: After the continuous rebound of oil prices, the upward pressure increased. LPG's fundamentals improved, with a decrease in commodity volume, an increase in downstream start - up, a decrease in factory inventory, and an increase in port inventory [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the upward resistance of the oil price increases, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and sell bull spread options, with PG focusing on the range of [4550 - 4650] [9] L - **Market Review**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 16 yuan/ton day - on - day [11] - **Basic Logic**: On the supply side, new production capacities have been put into operation, and some import windows are open. On the demand side, the agricultural film is in the seasonal peak season. In the short - term, it will follow the market sentiment and be weak, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies, with L focusing on the range of [7630 - 7770] [11] PP - **Market Review**: The L - PP05 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the PP - 3MA05 spread increased by 58 yuan/ton [13] - **Basic Logic**: On the supply side, new production capacities are expected to be put into operation. On the demand side, downstream start - up has recovered, but orders are slow to recover. In the short - term, it will follow the cost side and be weak, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, with PP focusing on the range of [7290 - 7390] [14] PVC - **Market Review**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton month - on - month [16] - **Basic Logic**: On the supply side, new production capacities have been added, and some devices are planned for maintenance. On the demand side, downstream start - up has increased seasonally. In the short - term, the market will be in a low - level shock, and in the spring maintenance period, it is recommended to go long on dips [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, with V focusing on the range of [5060 - 5180] [17] PX - **Market Review**: On March 28, the PX spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the PX05 contract closed at 6932 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton [18] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the demand from PTA devices is weakening. Supply - demand improvement is limited, and the cost support is weak. In the short - term, it will follow the oil price, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on the range of [6820 - 6950] [20] PTA - **Market Review**: On March 28, the PTA spot price in East China was 4905 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the TA05 contract closed at 4894 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [21] - **Basic Logic**: PTA devices are under planned maintenance, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. However, the downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is relatively high. The market will follow the cost, and there are opportunities to buy on dips, but the rebound height may be limited [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focuses on the range of [4820 - 4900] [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On March 28, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4508 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton, and the EG05 contract closed at 4451 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton [24] - **Basic Logic**: Recent device maintenance has increased, but the import volume is high, and the supply - side pressure remains. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing. The cost support is weak, and the market will be in a weak shock, with range - bound operation recommended [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on the range of [4400 - 4470] [26] Bottle Chips - **Market Review**: On March 28, the spot price of PET bottle chips in East China was 6090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the PR main contract closed at 6070 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Bottle chip devices are increasing production, and the supply pressure is increasing. The soft drink is in the off - season, but the demand is expected to improve, and the export growth rate is high. The inventory is decreasing, and the cost support is expected to improve in April. Attention should be paid to buying on dips [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: PR focuses on the range of [6010 - 6080] [29] Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market price was stable, the futures price gave back the gains, the main contract basis widened, and the warehouse receipts were zero [30] - **Basic Logic**: On the supply side, the start - up rate and production capacity utilization rate decreased. On the demand side, downstream replenishment led to inventory reduction, but the market is uncertain about the demand recovery. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of sales and orders [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on the range of [1160 - 1200] [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy soda ash spot price was partially lowered, the futures price was in a weak shock, the basis widened slightly, the warehouse receipts increased, and the forecasts decreased [33] - **Basic Logic**: On the supply side, the spring maintenance is coming to an end, and the supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, the downstream glass price rebounded, but the actual transaction was cautious. The inventory has been decreasing for six weeks but remains high. The market is in a weak position [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on the range of [1370 - 1400] [34] Methanol - **Market Review**: On March 28, the methanol spot price in East China was 2651 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2541 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [35] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure remains high due to lower - than - expected spring maintenance and increasing overseas supply. The demand is relatively good, and the inventory is decreasing. The cost support is weak. In the short - term, it will be strong, but the negative feedback from downstream profits will limit the rebound. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focuses on the range of [2540 - 2590] [36] Urea - **Market Review**: Not provided in the given content - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase due to the resumption of maintenance devices, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is seasonally decreasing but remains relatively high. The cost support is weak [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell, with UR focusing on the range of [1860 - 1910] [1]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 4 月 强劲 | 2 日对等关税在即，避险情绪高涨，俄乌谈判停滞，博弈加剧，各大机构 抬高黄金价格预测。未来特朗普变数仍然较大，长期不确定困扰仍在，中长期 | | | | 看全球旧秩序破坏，黄金配置价值长存，长多可介入【710-735】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 白银跟随黄金走强，多国刺激经济，美国欧洲中国等货币政策预期宽松，白银 等有色有支撑，目前白银基本面比较确定，关注 8550 附近表现，如果冲破， | | | | 则新的交易空间打开。【8350-8550】 | | 铜 | 延续回落 | 特朗普关税冲击增加，美国数据疲软，经济衰退和需求不足担忧重现，短期多单止 盈落袋增加，铜延续回落，关注下方 8 万整数关口支撑，建议投机等待充分回调后 | | | | 再背靠均线入场，中长期铜上行趋势仍在，沪铜关注区间【79000-82000】 | | 锌 | 回落 | 有色板块回调，海外锌矿复产，锌精矿加工费继续上移，锌震荡回落，前期高位空 | | | | 单继续持有，中长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1, the supply side of float glass continued the production capacity contraction cycle dominated by cold repairs, with daily melting volume reaching a four - year low. However, the expectation of复产 and high inventory suppressed the futures price. The demand side was characterized by limited policy support, in - depth real estate adjustment, and low downstream orders. The inventory showed a structural feature, and the cost side had differentiated fuel trends, with coal - made dynamic cost becoming the marginal cost for futures pricing. - In Q2, the profit elasticity on the supply side and the inventory destocking rhythm will be key variables. For the demand side, focus on the verification results of "Golden March and Silver April" demand and the actual implementation effect of the "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" policy. If demand improves marginally and supply contracts actively, inventory destocking will drive price recovery; otherwise, the industry will continue the "weak supply and demand" pattern [3][50]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Demand Side: The Strength of the Peak Season is Uncertain, and Policy Effects are Crucial - Macro - level policies set a "stable growth" tone, but there is a time lag in policy transmission. Terminal demand recovery is weak, and new construction area has a long - term downward trend. The real estate supply - demand relationship changed in 2021, and glass demand is expected to trend down in the next 1 - 2 years. - In Q2, if real - estate completion improves marginally in April and "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" projects are concentrated for delivery, glass demand may pick up short - term. However, there are risks such as policy implementation falling short of expectations and high - temperature rainy seasons interfering with construction [8][9]. 3.2 Supply Side: Production Capacity Adjustment is Dominant, and Pay Attention to the Profit Inflection Point - The float glass industry is in the "break - even to slight loss" range. In Q1, the number of operating production lines decreased, and the daily melting volume remained unchanged year - on - year. In Q2, if natural - gas - made profit turns positive, enterprises may accelerate复产; if coal - made profit turns negative, cold - repair scale may expand [13]. 3.3 Inventory Side: The Intensity of Inventory Destocking Depends on Demand - In Q1, the inventory showed a structural feature, and futures prices were significantly affected by inventory fluctuations. As of March 21, inventory increased compared to the end of last year. In Q2, if demand improves, upstream inventory may continue to be destocked, supporting futures prices to rebound; otherwise, inventory will accumulate again, and prices may decline [22]. 3.4 Cost Side: Coal - Made Dynamic Cost Provides Marginal Support - Currently, coal - made cost is the lowest marginal cost line. The influence of the cost side on futures prices in Q2 depends on fuel price trends, supply - side changes, and downstream demand recovery. If the supply reduction caused by cost increase is greater than the demand decline, futures prices may rise; otherwise, prices will face downward pressure and fluctuate around the coal - made cost line [33]. 3.5 Valuation Side: The Weak Basis Background Limits the Rebound Space - In Q1, glass spot and futures prices fell together. The basis fluctuated around zero, especially in Hubei where it was mostly negative, providing no upward elasticity for the futures market. The current deep contango structure has a rising near - month price and a gentler slope, indicating an improvement in the spot market [39]. 3.6 Market Outlook: Inventory Dominates Short - Term Fluctuations, and a Rebound with a Bearish Bias is the Main Trend - In Q1, the supply side was in a capacity contraction cycle, the demand side was weak, the inventory had a structural feature, and the cost side had differentiated fuel trends. In Q2, focus on supply - side profit and inventory destocking. - Strategically, consider a rebound around the coal - made dynamic cost line and a bearish view near the half - year and annual lines. Pay attention to support at 1000 - 1100 and resistance at 1400 - 1500. Mid - and upstream enterprises can conduct sell - hedging when the futures price is 10% - 20% higher than Hubei's spot price, and mid - and downstream enterprises can conduct buy - hedging when the futures price is below coal - made cost or significantly lower than the spot price. - In terms of rhythm, inventory dominates short - term fluctuations. From April to May, if inventory destocking exceeds expectations, futures prices may rise; in June, if inventory accumulates again, prices may decline to the 1100 yuan/ton cost line [50][51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Weak operation in the medium term [3][4][5] - Iron Ore: Neutral to slightly bearish, recommend 5 - 9 calendar spread long position and short 09 contract on rallies [6][7] - Coke: Weak operation in the medium term [8][9][10] - Coking Coal: Weak operation [11][12][13] - Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon): Weak operation [14][16][17] Core Views - Steel: The supply of steel continues to rise. For rebar, the increase in production and high - level hot metal output may strengthen supply contradictions, with limited upside space. Hot - rolled coil shows a state of strong supply and demand, but lacks continuous upward drivers and follows rebar to run weakly in the medium term [4][5] - Iron Ore: The shipping volume has increased this period, arrivals have slightly declined, and port inventories have slightly increased. With more information on steel mill maintenance and production cuts, the short - term impact is limited. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] - Coke: The exchange has modified the coke delivery rules. Coke production and inventories have increased with the rise in hot metal output. Due to long - standing over - capacity and difficult - to - solve coking coal supply contradictions, there is a lack of upward drivers [9] - Coking Coal: The output of coking coal mines continues to rise, the supply pressure persists and increases. High inventory levels and large upstream shipment pressure lead to a situation of oversupply that is difficult to change [12] - Ferroalloys: Manganese silicon has high - level production areas and lower - than - expected downstream demand, with limited decline in ore prices. The delivery warehouse inventory continues to rise. Ferrosilicon has more production cuts and overhauls in some areas, and the export competition pressure may intensify [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The current futures prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 are 3281, 3197, and 3257 respectively, all showing a decline. The spot prices in different regions also show varying degrees of decline. The supply contradiction may intensify, and the price range is expected to be [3150, 3250] [1][2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The current futures prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 are 3422, 3374, and 3404 respectively, all showing a decline. The spot prices in different regions have mixed trends. It lacks upward drivers and is expected to run weakly in the medium term, with a price range of [3350, 3450] [1][2] Iron Ore - The current futures prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 are 725, 786, and 747 respectively, with different trends. The spot prices of various iron ore powders also show different changes. The ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to participate in the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position and short the 09 contract on rallies, with a price range of [750, 810] [6][7] Coke - The current futures prices of coke 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1704.5, 1617.5, and 1661.0 respectively, all showing a decline. The spot prices in different regions are relatively stable. Coke is expected to maintain a weak trend, with a price range of [1570, 1640] [8][9] Coking Coal - The current futures prices of coking coal 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1140.0, 1024.0, and 1080.5 respectively, all showing a decline. The spot prices in different regions are relatively stable. Coking coal is expected to run weakly, with a price range of [1000, 1050] [11][12] Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The current futures prices of manganese silicon 01, 05, and 09 are 6216, 6076, and 6142 respectively, all showing a decline. The spot prices in different regions are stable. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with a price range of [6000, 6350] [15][16][17] - **Ferrosilicon**: The current futures prices of ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 are 6106, 6016, and 6032 respectively, with different trends. The spot prices in different regions are stable. The fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to run weakly, with a price range of [5900, 6100] [15][16][17]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 短期高位震荡 | 巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨恢复至正常水平以 | | | | 上。4 月美国将对中国加征 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 10%的关税。美 | | | | 豆贸易争端暂告一段落。国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆库存环比下降，油厂 | | 豆粕 | | 豆粕库存环比增加。4 月国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。 | | | | 当前豆粕市场由于多空因素交织,豆粕主力短期震荡行情。关注月底美豆种植面积公 | | | | 布数据，以及中美贸易新进展。近月合约需要注意大豆 4 月进口到港逐步放量预期 | | | | 下，期现回归的走弱风险。主力【2780，2870】 | | | | 美对加籽加征关税利空加籽下跌。国内市场本周沿海油厂菜籽及菜粕库存环比下 | | | | 降，压力边际改善。中国对加拿大菜粕菜油加征 100%关税，但未包含菜籽，且可 | | 菜粕 | 短期震荡 | 交割菜粕途径较多，实际利多影响有限。短期缺乏基本面新指引，价 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 俄乌谈判停滞，关税临近多国恐慌应对，博弈加剧，各大机构抬高黄金价格预 | | 黄金 | 强势 | 测。未来特朗普变数仍然较大，长期不确定困扰仍在，中长期看全球旧秩序破 | | | | 坏，黄金配置价值长存，长多可介入【710-722】 | | | | 白银跟随黄金走强，多国刺激经济，美国货币政策预期宽松，中国择机降息降 | | 白银 | 强势 | 准，白银等有色有支撑，目前白银基本面比较确定，关注 8510 附近表现，如 | | | | 果冲破，则新的交易空间打开。【8300-8520】 | | | | 特朗普关税冲击增加，美国数据疲软，经济衰退和需求不足担忧重现，短期多单止 | | 铜 | 延续回落 | 盈落袋增加，铜延续回落，建议投机等待充分回调后再背靠均线入场，中长期铜上 | | | | 行趋势仍在，沪铜关注区间【79000-85000】 | | | | 有色板块回调，海外锌矿复产，锌精矿加工费继续上移，锌震荡回落，前期高位空 | | 锌 | 回落 | 单继续持有，中长期看，锌供增需弱， ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 盘整 地缘扰动继续释放，油价高位盘整。美国原油库存超预期上涨；美国对伊朗石油销售实 施第四轮制裁；特朗普宣布将对进口委内瑞拉原油和天然气的国家征收关税。SC 【540-550】 LPG 震荡 油价回调，供需基本面改善，震荡调整。成本端油价有所回调；基本面暂无驱动，厂内 库存下降，港口库存上升，商品量下降，下游开工回升。PG【4600-4650】 L 震荡 现货止跌，上中游库存去化，短期震荡。中长期，装置投产压力偏高，逢高布空。L 【7650-7780】 PP 震荡 停车比例维持高位，上中游库存去化，供给压力边际缓解。中长期，装置投产压力偏高， 限制上行空间，反弹偏空。PP【7300-7400】 PVC 震荡 烧碱跌价，一体化成本支撑好转，短期检修量仍偏少，3 月仓单陆续注销，盘面低位震荡。 4-5 月常规春检即将开启，回调偏多。关注春检力度及出口的可持续性，中长期过剩产能 压制反弹空间。V【5060-5180】 PX 反弹 PX 装置按计划检修，需求端 PTA 检修量整体偏高，供需改善相对有限；原油价格近期企 稳但预期走弱；库存去库但整体偏高；短期来看，3-4 月基本 ...