0 1 观点摘要 0 2 宏观经济 0 3 盘面情况 0 4 供应和需求 0 5 总结和展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 观点摘要 01 沪铜月度报告 关税风暴中的铜，警惕库存危机 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-04-30 目录 Contents ➢ 特朗普关税政策反复无常暴露了美国纸老虎的本质，市场预测关税对全球经济影响将在5月逐渐显现，如果 后续中美对抗继续螺旋升级，全球经济衰退预期或再次重演，而在关税成本暴涨下，美国二次通胀概率大 增，降低美联储降息预期，美国6月国债兑付危机逼近，市场恐慌情绪或再次出现，届时市场风险资产或泥 沙俱下，铜将再次承压，但同时美国铜进口关税悬而未决，刺激贸易商抽干全球铜库存，要警惕国内铜库 存骤降带来的逼仓风险，铜深跌的可能性较小，短期回调蓄力后反而会弹的更高。 ➢ 短期建议铜前期多单逐渐止盈兑现，落袋为安，轻仓或者空仓过节。五一假期后，关注宏观经济数据指引， 若经济数据低于预期，中美对抗加剧，铜或二次探底，可等待铜价企稳后回调逢低再入场，若中美对抗缓 和，铜库存去化加速，铜重心或缓慢上移。中长期看，中美博弈进入新阶段，全球铜矿紧 ...

Report Title - PVC Monthly Report: Seasonal De-stocking Phase, Focus on Low-Valuation Recovery Market [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May, it is the peak season for seasonal maintenance. Pay attention to the low-valuation recovery market driven by policy expectations. The supply and demand of the fundamentals will be weak, inventory may continue to decline, and spot prices are likely to rise rather than fall. If there are real estate-related stimulus policies in May, the upward elasticity of the market will be higher than the downward elasticity. Strategically, pay attention to subsequent macro-policy changes and the intensity of spring maintenance, and choose the opportunity to go long on dips [4] Summary by Directory This Month's Overview - **Market Review**: This month, the V2509 fluctuated in the range of [4901, 5273]. The weak macro sentiment dominated the market trend, and the price center significantly moved down. The cost support of chlor-alkali integration improved. The overall profit in the northwest remained at a neutral level. The export continued to exchange volume for price, driving the social inventory to decline for 7 consecutive weeks. The Formosa Plastics quotation in May was flat, slightly better than market expectations [3] Next Month's Outlook - **Seasonal Maintenance Peak**: Multiple sets of devices such as Tianchen Chemical and Xinjiang Yihua are planned for maintenance. The supply is expected to shrink. The BIS certification is approaching, and exports may be under pressure. Pay attention to whether maintenance can drive further effective de-stocking of inventory [4] - **Policy Expectations**: The domestic real estate demand is still weak, but the market's sensitivity to policies has significantly increased. If there are real estate-related stimulus policies in May, the upward elasticity of the market will be higher than the downward elasticity [4] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to subsequent macro-policy changes and the intensity of spring maintenance, and choose the opportunity to go long on dips. The V2505 is expected to fluctuate in the range of [4800, 5150] [4] Balance Sheet - **Capacity and Utilization**: In the first quarter, Xinpu Chemical's 500,000-ton capacity was put into production. In the second quarter, pay attention to the commissioning progress of multiple sets of devices such as Qingdao Gulf and Wanhua. The overall capacity utilization rate showed a narrow upward trend [5][6] - **Supply and Demand**: The production and export volume increased year-on-year, and the apparent consumption decreased year-on-year. The inventory showed a downward trend [5] Valuation - **Absolute Price**: The absolute price is at a low level year-on-year [8] - **Basis**: The basis is higher than the same period last year [10] - **Spread**: The 5-9 spread is biased towards positive arbitrage, and the term structure maintains a Contango structure [16] Supply - **Spring Maintenance**: The intensity of spring maintenance was insufficient, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. Next week, the overall supply is expected to increase [19][21] - **May Maintenance Plan**: Multiple enterprises such as Tianchen Chemical and Xinjiang Yihua have maintenance plans in May, and the supply is expected to shrink [22] Macroeconomy - **PMI**: In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 percentage points, falling below the boom-bust line again after 2 months [23] - **Industrial Profits**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the total profits of industrial enterprises was -0.3%; among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the total profits of the manufacturing industry was +4.8%, and enterprise profits improved marginally [25] - **PPI and CPI**: In March 2025, the PPI was -2.5% year-on-year, remaining in the negative range for 30 consecutive months; the CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, negative for two consecutive months, and there is still overall deflationary pressure [27] Domestic Demand - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The downstream operating rate increased by 0.07 percentage points month-on-month but was at a low level year-on-year [28] - **Real Estate Data**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rates of real estate new construction, construction, completion, and commercial housing sales areas were -24.4%, -9.5%, -14.3%, and -3.0% respectively. The decline in new construction, completion, and sales areas narrowed, while the decline in construction area widened [34] - **Commercial Housing Transaction Area**: The commercial housing transaction area was weak [35] Exports - **Export Volume**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative domestic PVC export volume was 980,000 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 56%, maintaining high-speed growth [43] - **BIS Policy**: The original PVC import BIS policy that expired on December 24 was extended by six months to June 24, 2025 [43] Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [44] - **Factory Inventory**: The factory inventory increased slightly [44] - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The warehouse receipt inventory increased continuously in April, and the delivery volume decreased compared with last year [46] Profit - **Northwest Chlor-alkali Integration**: The profit of the northwest chlor-alkali integration device is acceptable [48] Upstream Industry Chain - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as lanthanum carbon are at a low level year-on-year and remain stable [50][54] - **Caustic Soda Industry Chain**: The factory inventory of caustic soda is at a high level year-on-year, and the spot price has declined [56] Position - **09 Contract Position**: The position of the 09 contract has increased to more than 90,000 lots [60] - **Net Position Data**: As of April 29, the short position strength was slightly stronger, with 51% of the short position and 49% of the long position [64]

20250430棉系月报： 国内植棉进入苗期 关注后市关税政策调整 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 时间：2025年4月30日 周度综述：摘要 | | | | | | | 棉花供需平衡表(4月) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标(万吨) | | | 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 | | 2023/24 | 2024/25 (3月) | 2024/25 (4月) | 月度调整 | 年度同比 | | | 中国 | 597.7 | 644.5 | 583.5 | 668.4 | 595.4 | 691.2 | 696.6 | 5.4 | 101.2 | | | 印度 | 620.5 | 598.7 | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 544.3 | 544.3 | 0.0 | -8.7 | | | 巴西 | 283 | 300 | 235.6 | 255.2 | 317.2 | ...

Report Title - Iron Ore Monthly Report: Supply-demand structure weakens, ore prices fluctuate weakly [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In May, the global iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and the static supply and demand are relatively loose. Prices will fluctuate weakly [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - In April, the spot and futures prices fluctuated weakly. As of April 29, the futures price of the main contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton month-on-month [4] Supply Side - The shipments of the four major mines will increase in May, with an estimated month-on-month increase of 625000 tons [5][29][36] - Non-mainstream mines are estimated to ship 40.3 million tons in May, an increase of about 30000 tons [5][32][36] - Domestic mine production is expected to reach 21 million tons in May, a month-on-month increase of 60000 tons [5][35][36] - The overall global supply in May will increase by about 7.15 million tons month-on-month [5][36] Demand Side - Domestically, according to the Steel Union's statistical caliber, the estimated national pig iron output in April was 72.26 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. In May, the blast furnace hot metal output is expected to be 74.4 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.14 million tons. The demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by 3.5 million tons [5][15][21] - Overseas, the daily average pig iron output outside China is generally stable. It is estimated that the pig iron output in May will decrease by about 30000 tons month-on-month, and the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will decrease by about 50000 tons [5][18][21] - Globally, the demand for iron ore with a 61% grade will increase by about 3 million tons in May [5][21] Steel Mill Conditions - At the end of April, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, a year-on-year increase of 4.60 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a year-on-year increase of 6.07 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a year-on-year increase of 6.93 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 810 tons [9] - In April, the profitability of long and short process steel mills remained stable, and the production enthusiasm was fair; short process steel mills remained in the red, and the production enthusiasm was not strong [12] Inventory - At the end of April, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 143 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 200 tons. It is expected to accumulate in May [37] - Steel mills replenish inventory on demand, and the inventory fluctuates within a narrow range [39]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In April, international oil prices tumbled significantly under the impact of tariff disturbances and OPEC+'s official production increase, with the oil price center shifting downwards. Tariff policies have become the main uncertainty factor in the macro - economy, and the IMF recently downgraded the global GDP growth rate. Against this background, the incremental demand for crude oil is insufficient. OPEC+ officially started increasing production in April, and some member countries will implement compensatory production cuts, but the implementation is difficult. There is no sign of a driver to reverse the crude oil trend, and the oil price will continue to be weak. It is estimated that the WTI will fluctuate between $55 - 65 per barrel, and the trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies. The focus ranges are WTI [55, 65] for the outer market and SC [420, 500] for the inner market [8][95]. Group 3: Summaries by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The international crude oil futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as sanctions, supply shortages, weather, and OPEC+ policies from December 2024 to April 2025 [6]. 2. Macroeconomics - The People's Bank of China will consider timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity. The IMF downgraded the 2025 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8% and predicted 3% for 2026. US tariff measures will cause a short - term slowdown in the global economy. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI is on the rise, while the US's is falling. China's domestic economy is relatively optimistic, with consumption driving growth, and the LPR remains stable [8][16][21]. 3. Supply and Inventory - **Supply**: In March 2025, OPEC's crude oil production decreased by 7.8 barrels per day to 2678 barrels per day. The US's crude oil production remained stable at 1346 barrels per day as of April 18, and the number of rigs increased by 1. Russia's crude oil production is expected to be stable in Q2 - Q3 2025 and then increase [33][42][46]. - **Demand**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA estimated the 2025 global crude oil demand to be 10364, 10505, and 10360 barrels per day respectively. China's March crude oil imports increased year - on - year, while the US and European refineries' crude oil processing volumes decreased year - on - year. India's crude oil demand is rising [50][51][53]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, the US's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 20 barrels to 44310 barrels, and the strategic reserve increased by 50 barrels to 39748 barrels. The OECD's total inventory decreased. European crude oil inventory is at a low level, and the US's refined oil inventory is being depleted [9][62][71]. 4. Spreads and Positions - **Spreads**: The WTI forward curve is in a Back structure, and the inter - month spread is decreasing. As of April 29, the SC - WTI spread was $5.71 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $1.23 per barrel. The refined oil cracking spread remained stable [78][82][85]. - **Positions**: As of April 22, the net long positions of WTI and Brent funds increased. As of April 29, the inner - market SC warehouse receipt volume increased but was at a low level, and the virtual - to - real ratio was high [88][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, soybean meal is expected to show a trend of first weakening and then strengthening, mainly in a large - range volatile market under the influence of increased domestic supply, inventory accumulation of soybean meal, and speculation about US soybean weather. If the US soybean weather remains favorable and there is no definite news about the US biodiesel policy, soybean meal will continue to operate weakly [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to be under pressure for adjustment due to the listing of domestic new rapeseed and the decline in soybean meal prices. However, after the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is also expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean Market - US soybean planting progress reached 8% this week, higher than 7% in the same period last year, and the rainfall outlook in the next 15 days is smooth, with a good planting prospect. South American soybean production is basically a foregone conclusion of a bumper harvest, with Brazil having a good harvest and Argentina entering the harvest stage, and the latest estimated yield of Argentine soybeans is 49 million tons [4]. - The USDA April report slightly favored the bearish side. It maintained South American and US soybean yields, adjusted non - major soybean - producing countries' yields, and global soybean import, export, and crushing data, slightly increasing the global soybean ending inventory by 1.06 million tons to 122 million tons. For US soybeans, the crushing volume increased month - on - month, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending inventory [15]. - The planting area of US soybeans in 2025 is expected to be 83.495 million acres, lower than market expectations and a 4% year - on - year decrease compared to 2024 [19]. - As of the week of April 20, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than market expectations. However, according to CPC data, there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May [19]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Supply and Inventory - In April, China entered the stage of concentrated supply of South American soybeans. Although port and soybean inventories have risen for three consecutive weeks, due to the slow customs clearance of soybeans at ports and low oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventories are at a low level. After the May Day holiday, soybean meal supply is likely to gradually ease [5]. - As of April 25, the national port soybean inventory was 5.2028 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 4.5948 million tons, both increasing compared to the previous week and the same period last year [25]. - As of April 25, the weekly soybean meal inventory was 74,800 tons, a significant decrease compared to the previous week and the same period last year. The physical inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 4.35 days, less than 7.23 days in the same period last year [30]. Consumption - In the first quarter, the pig inventory increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the inventories of eggs and meat poultry were generally stable, with an optimistic outlook for feed consumption [5]. Market Outlook - The market focus has shifted to the concentrated arrival of soybeans and US soybean planting. Before the holiday, be cautious about short - selling operations. In May, soybean meal is expected to be affected by multiple factors and show a volatile trend [5]. 3.3 Global Rapeseed Market - Canadian rapeseed has strong domestic and export demand, and it is expected to exceed the annual export forecast. The price of Canadian rapeseed has risen to the pre - trade - war level. The planting area of new - season Canadian rapeseed has decreased, but the yield has increased slightly year - on - year due to the increase in yield per unit [7]. - The estimated yield of rapeseed in the EU region in the new season is stable at around 19 million tons, and the annual import data of rapeseed has increased year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions [7]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Market Supply and Inventory - Due to the increase in the price of Canadian rapeseed, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in China has dropped significantly, which may lead to a decrease in the enthusiasm for future rapeseed imports and is favorable for the long - term price expectation. Currently, the commercial inventory of rapeseed meal in China is relatively high, and there is still short - term supply pressure [8]. - As of April 25, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 255,000 tons, and the monthly crushing volume was 317,000 tons, both lower than the same period last year [42]. - As of April 29, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 9,700 tons, and the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions across the country was 715,000 tons, showing different trends of increase and decrease compared to the previous week [46]. Consumption - The opening of the aquaculture season is beneficial to the consumption expectation of rapeseed meal. The substitution consumption of rapeseed meal has been opened up due to the expansion of the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference [8]. Market Outlook - After the holiday, the impact of the new - season rapeseed listing will gradually ease. Supported by the strong international price of Canadian rapeseed, the adjustment space of rapeseed meal is expected to be limited. In May, it is expected to be first weak and then strong [9]. 3.5 Feed Market - From January to February 2025, the national industrial feed production was 49.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The prices of feed products decreased significantly year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 47.2%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 13.3% [54]. 3.6 Livestock and Poultry Breeding Market - In the first quarter, the national pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 1% [57]. - In April, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 145.34 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 58.8 yuan per head, showing different trends compared to March [64]. - In April, the egg - laying hen breeding profit rebounded month - on - month, reaching 2.26 yuan per bird as of April 24. The white - feather broiler breeding profit decreased month - on - month, reaching - 0.12 yuan per bird as of April 27 [67].

碳酸锂月报： 供需失衡，锂价重心下移 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.4.30 本月碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，与上年四季度增长5.4%持平，比上年同期增长5.3%回升了0.1个百分点。CPI同比下降 0.1%，上年四季度为上涨0.2%，上年同期为持平，侧面反映出消费需求不足的问题仍较为突出。工业、投资、零售和出口等主要 经济指标，在宏观调控政策的积极作用下整体表现尚可，部分指标开始回升，924以来的积极政策取得了一定效果，对整体经济的 平稳运行发挥了重要作用。特朗普关税政策明显超出市场预期，二季度将成为各个国家与美国的重要谈判窗口，市场波动率上升。 【供应端】4月产量预计7万吨左右，环比上月下滑7%。4月随着锂价重心下移，外采矿冶炼厂利润倒挂严重。此外龙头大厂季节性 检修带动产量小幅回落。但盐湖季节性生产旺季即将到来，若矿端减停产不及预期，5月产量仍将维持高位。 【需求端】乘联会数据显示，4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比去年4月同期增长20%，较上月同期下降11%， 零售渗透率53.3%，今年以来累计零售28 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The core logic for the long - term rise of gold (weakening of the US dollar credit, continuous gold purchases by central banks, geopolitical risks, and inflation expectations) remains solid. Gold is expected to maintain a structural bull market. Short - term price adjustments are normal rather than a trend reversal, and gold has long - term allocation value [3]. - The US economy shows signs of potential stagflation, with issues such as a consumer confidence decline, inflation risks, and uncertainties in the labor market. The economic recovery momentum in Europe and the United States has weakened, especially in the service industry [19][33]. - The Chinese economy in April saw a decline in the PMI index, a slowdown in real - estate recovery, an increase in industrial enterprise profits, and a significant growth in exports in March, but there are still many challenges [60][67][74]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Asset Price Logic Differentiation - Bond market: The US Treasury yields have been affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude. The yields of Chinese government bonds have continued to decline, reflecting the expectation of loose monetary policy and the pressure of economic slowdown. The yields of Japanese government bonds are still loose under the YCC policy, and the British government bond yields are under pressure from trade tensions [9][13]. - Commodity market: Black commodities are generally weak, chemicals are in a weak - shock situation, non - ferrous metals are strong, gold has significant fluctuations, and agricultural products have different trends [16]. 2. Overseas Tariff Negotiations Are Repeated, and Monetary Expectations Are Loose - US economy: In April 2025, the US consumer market was in a "polarized" state. The inflation rate in March showed different trends, and the core inflation was sticky. The manufacturing and service industries showed mixed performance, the labor market had a "strong employment but weak confidence" feature, and the Fed's balance sheet was shrinking, with internal differences on the timing of interest rate cuts [19][24][33][36]. - Other countries' economies: Inflation rates in various countries are at different levels, and the manufacturing and service industries in Europe are under pressure. There are also differences in the monetary policies of central banks in various countries [22][30][33]. - Geopolitical conflicts: Multiple geopolitical conflicts have led to turmoil in the energy market, a refugee crisis, and intensified great - power games. There are also differences and progress in tariff negotiations among different regions [48][50]. 3. China's PMI Data Declines, and Policies Are Steady - PMI data: In April 2025, both the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI declined. The supply and demand sides, external demand, and prices all showed weakening trends [60]. - Investment: From January to March 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased, with new and old infrastructure and manufacturing investment growing. The real - estate investment decline has converged, and the real - estate land market is not hot [63][67][87]. - Consumption: In the first quarter of 2025, domestic consumption showed a stable increase, with different performances in different fields [70]. - Exports: In March 2025, exports increased significantly, but there are potential risks in the future [74][77]. - Industrial enterprise profits: From January to March 2025, the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year, but the profit margin was low, and the debt ratio was high [82]. 4. Some Risk - Aversion Sentiment Subsides, and Gold Prices Adjust Significantly - Gold market: In the week of April 25, 2025, the global gold market experienced a significant correction. The proportion of non - commercial long positions in gold decreased, the holdings of gold ETF funds changed, and the dollar rose while the US Treasury yields fell [107][110][113]. - Supply and demand of gold and silver: In the first quarter of 2025, the net inflow of global physical gold ETFs reached a new high since the first quarter of 2022. The global silver market is in a "tight balance" state, with industrial demand supporting the fundamentals [117][119]. - Outlook for gold: Gold has entered a bull market cycle driven by the weakening of the US dollar credit, risk - aversion demand, and central - bank gold purchases. The medium - and long - term upward trend is clear, but there may be short - term fluctuations [121][122].

20250430中辉期货生猪月报： 增产周期尚未触底 警惕前期增重释放风险 农产品团队 贾晖 Z0000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 时间：2025.04.30 生猪观点摘要 一、现货表现 1、本周，全国生猪均价环比下降0.02元/公斤至14.95元/公斤。其中，河南市场环比下降0.12元/公斤至14.83元/公斤; 云南市场持平于15元/公斤;山西市场环比下降0.16元/公斤至14.65元/公斤;重庆市场环比下降0.25元至14.6元/公斤;四 川市场环比提升0.1于14.7元/公斤。 2、本周，样本养殖企业淘汰母猪现货均价环比上行0.31元至10.91元/kg。样本企业50kg二元母猪现货均价持平于 1641.43元/头。当前补栏热度不高，规模养殖场多自留，成交积极性偏低，成交数量有限，价格波动不大，市场平稳。 3、目前仔猪价格已然高位， 成交表现一般，补栏积极性下降，7kg仔猪出栏均价环比下降0.95至523.81元/头，15kg 仔猪出栏均价环比下降108.69元/头至550元/头。 二、供给端表现 短期来看，4月养殖场出栏进度偏慢，供应节奏放缓，体重延续小幅度增长。由 ...

钢材月报： 短期矛盾不大 中期仍将下行 分析师：陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货研究院 2025/4/30 观点摘要 【供需概况】：4月份行情的主要驱动首先是特朗普的关税战，从目前情况看，对国内影响相对有限，近期特 朗普的表态也有缓和，后期若美国国内情况继续恶化，中美关税问题有出现转机的可能，未来不排除关税问题 的向上修复行情。后期另一变量是粗钢压产政策。从相关信息看，1-2个月内或难落地。而即使落地，对本已 宽松的原料端会形成更大压力，对钢材无法形成趋势性反转的驱动。从供需角度看，目前虽然从现实看五大材 并无明显矛盾，但高位运行的铁水产量给了市场供应充足的预期，而需求端面临5月中旬之后的国内需求走弱 ，以及部分国家反倾销政策、国内禁止"买单出口"压力之下出口回落的可能，整体供需存在一定宽松预期。 行情回顾 来源:同花顺,中辉期货有限公司 • 春节之后，工地复工进度偏慢，钢材出口遭遇关税壁垒，同时原料端双焦持续下行，带动钢材走弱。清明假期期 间，特朗普发起贸易战，中美互加145%关税，商品整体大幅回落，螺纹钢主力在悲观情绪下打出3 ...