巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨恢复至正常水平以上。4 月美国将 对中国加征 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 10%的关税。美豆贸易争端暂告一段落。 国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆、豆粕库存环比下降。但 4 月国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 月 月均进口 1000 万吨以上，供应环境趋于逐步宽松缓解。 Mysteel：截至 2025 年 03 月 28 日，全国港口大豆库存 255.75 万吨，环比上周减少 4.80 万吨；同 比去年减少 172.64 万吨。125 家油厂大豆库存为大豆库存 247.92 万吨，较上周减少 3.88 万吨，减幅 1.54%， 同比去年减少 63.42 万吨，减幅 20.37%；豆粕库存 74.8 万吨，较上周减少 0.12 万吨，减幅 0.16%，同 比去年增加 43.52 万吨，增幅 139.13%。 由于美豆地区未来十五天降雨充沛，短期豆粕缺乏更多利多驱动，警惕短线整理甚至调整风险。受 美生柴政策提振，阿根廷降雨不足影响，豆粕昨日温和反弹，但看多追多操作仍需谨慎对待。近月合约 需要注意大豆 4 月进口到港逐步放量的预期下，期现回归的走弱风险。 ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3276 | -7 | 热卷01 | 3419 | 2 | | 螺纹05 | 3166 | -4 | 热卷05 | 3352 | -7 | | 螺纹10 | 3247 | -8 | 热卷10 | 3382 | -10 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 3050 | 0 | 张家港废钢 | 2150 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3300 | 20 | 热卷:天津 | 3310 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3240 | 0 | 热卷:上海 | 3360 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3250 | 20 | 热卷:杭州 | 3390 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3490 | 10 | 热卷:广州 | 3360 | 0 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3330 | 10 | 热卷:成都 | 3430 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 螺纹01 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 中期弱势 | 螺纹产量继续上升，铁水产量环比继续增加，目前铁水产量已处于同期偏 | | | | 高水平，在钢厂利润仍然不错的背景下，钢厂生产积极性较高。而需求端 | | | | 仍然处于较疲弱的状态，建筑钢材日成交有所回升，但需观察持续性，整 | | | | 体供需趋于宽松的矛盾有增强可能，中期走势偏弱。【3130，3200】 | | 热卷 | 中期偏弱 | 热卷基本面目前体现为供需两旺的状态，库存正常去化。禁止"买单出口" | | | | 或对后期钢材出口产生较大影响，叠加反倾销等预期，基本面有继续宽松 | | | | 的倾向，中期维持偏弱运行。【3300，3380】 | | 铁矿石 | 正套参与 | 本期发货环比增加，到货明显回落，港口小幅增库，钢厂去库，铁矿基本 | | | | 面阶段性好转。关注下游旺季成色，关税落地关键时点，扰动增加，短期 | | | | 矿价震荡偏强运行。操作上 5-9 正套参与，09 合约逢高空配【760,820】 | | 焦炭 | 低位运行 | 焦企出现提涨，提涨幅度不大 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 盘整 | 市场等待美国 4 月 2 日对等关税靴子落地，油价高位盘整。美伊关系紧张；美国 1 月原 | | | | 油超预期下降；API 显示美国原油库存累库；美国继续制裁伊朗和委内瑞拉。SC【545-560】 | | LPG | 震荡 | 成本端油价走强，基本面多空交织，区间整理。成本端油价走强；基本面多空交织，厂 | | | | 内库存下降，港口库存上升，商品量下降；下游利润回落。PG【4550-4650】 | | L | 偏弱 | 现货下跌，供给充足，上游面临较高的去库压力，震荡偏弱。中长期，装置投产压力偏 | | | | 高，逢高布空。L【7620-7760】 | | PP | 震荡 | 停车比例下降，短期跟随成本端表现坚挺，多头可逐步逢高止盈。中长期，装置投产压 | | | | 力偏高，限制上行空间，反弹偏空。PP【7300-7400】 | | | | 烧碱跌价，氯碱一体化成本支撑好转，盘面升水，短期检修量偏少，盘面低位震荡。4-5 | | PVC | 震荡 | 月常规春检即将开启，回调偏多。关 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 蓄势趋弱 | 巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨有再度降雨不足的 | | | | 可能。4 月美国将对中国加征 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 10%的关税。 | | | | 美豆贸易争端暂告一段落。美豆种植意向面积公布结果同比环比调减，但美豆期末 | | | | 库存高于预期。国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆、豆粕库存环比下降。但 4 月 | | | | 国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。由于美豆地区未来十五天 | | | | 降雨充沛，短期豆粕缺乏更多利多驱动，警惕短线整理甚至调整风险。近月合约需 | | | | 要注意大豆 4 月进口到港逐步放量的预期下，期现回归的走弱风险。主力【2780， | | | | 2860】 | | | | 美对加籽加征关税利空加籽下跌。国内市场本周沿海油厂菜籽及菜粕库存环比下 | | | | 降，压力边际改善。中国对加拿大菜粕菜油加征 100%关税，但未包含菜籽，且可 | | 菜粕 | 短线下跌 | 交割菜粕途 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 强劲 | 靴子即将落地，对等关税幅度或超预期，避险情绪高涨，俄乌谈判停滞，博弈 加剧，未来特朗普变数仍然较大，长期不确定困扰仍在，中长期看全球旧秩序 | | | | 破坏，黄金配置价值长存，长多可介入【715-744】 | | 白银 | 高位震荡 | 白银需求受多国刺激经济、美国欧洲中国等货币政策预期宽松等影响有增量， 但是短期情绪过度反应，短期需求面有反复，商品属性比重较多，白银品种弹 | | | | 性大，关注 8550 附近表现，如果冲破，则新的交易空间打开。【8350-8550】 | | 铜 | 承压回落 | 特朗普关税冲击增加，美国数据疲软，经济衰退和需求不足担忧重现，短期多单止 盈落袋增加，铜延续回落，跌破 8 万整数关口支撑，建议投机等待充分回调后再背 | | | | 靠均线入场，中长期铜上行趋势仍在，沪铜关注区间【79000-81000】 | | 锌 | 回落 | 有色板块回调，海外锌矿复产，锌精矿加工费继续上移，锌震荡回落，前期高位空 单继续持有，部分可止盈落袋，中长期看， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil) are expected to run weakly in the medium term. Rebar production continues to rise, and demand remains weak. Hot-rolled coil may face challenges in exports, and its fundamentals tend to be looser [1][4][5]. - Iron ore's fundamentals have improved, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the 5 - 9 positive spread and short the 09 contract on rallies [1][8][9]. - Coke is expected to run weakly in the medium term due to long - standing over - capacity issues and unresolved coking coal supply contradictions [1][11][12]. - Coking coal is expected to run weakly as supply pressure persists, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change [1][14][15]. - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon) are expected to run weakly. Ferromanganese has high production and limited demand growth, while ferrosilicon may face increased export competition [1][18][19]. 3. Summary by Variety Steel Products Rebar - **Core View**: Weak operation. Production is rising, demand is weak, and the contradiction between supply and demand may intensify. The medium - term price range is [3100, 3180] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for rebar 01, 05, and 10 are 3271 (-10), 3159 (-38), and 3247 (-10) respectively. Spot prices vary in different regions, such as 3280 in Tangshan (unchanged), 3210 in Shanghai (-20) [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Core View**: Weak operation. The current fundamentals show strong supply and demand, but exports may be affected, and the fundamentals tend to be looser. The medium - term price range is [3300, 3380] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 are 3408 (-14), 3342 (-32), and 3379 (-25) respectively. Spot prices also vary by region, e.g., 3300 in Tianjin (-10), 3350 in Shanghai (-20) [2]. Iron Ore - **Core View**: Positive spread participation. The fundamentals have improved in the short term, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to participate in the 5 - 9 positive spread and short the 09 contract on rallies. The price range is [750, 810] [1][8][9]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for iron ore 01, 05, and 09 are 712 (-13), 773 (-13), and 732 (-15) respectively. Spot prices of different iron ore powders also have corresponding changes [6]. Coke - **Core View**: Weak operation in the medium term. Although the supply - demand data shows little contradiction, there are long - standing over - capacity issues and unresolved coking coal supply contradictions [1][11][12]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for coke 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1687.0 (-17.5), 1582.5 (-35.0), and 1640.0 (-21.0) respectively. Spot prices in different regions remain unchanged [10]. Coking Coal - **Core View**: Weak operation. Supply pressure persists, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change [1][14][15]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for coking coal 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1115.5 (-24.5), 988.5 (-35.5), and 1059.0 (-21.5) respectively. Spot prices in some regions are stable, while others have small changes [13]. Ferroalloys Ferromanganese - **Core View**: Weak operation. Production remains high, demand growth is limited, and the supply pressure is still high. The price range is [6000, 6350] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for ferromanganese 01, 05, and 09 are 6204 (-12), 6070 (-6), and 6144 (2) respectively. Spot prices vary in different regions [17]. Ferrosilicon - **Core View**: Weak operation. Some regions have increased production cuts and maintenance, and export competition may intensify. The price range is [5900, 6100] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 are 6100 (-6), 5972 (-44), and 6006 (-26) respectively. Spot prices in different regions also have corresponding changes [17].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普将最终决定对等关税，不会有豁免条款，避险情绪高涨，俄乌谈判停滞， | | 黄金 | 强劲 | 博弈加剧，未来特朗普变数仍然较大，长期不确定困扰仍在，中长期看全球旧 | | | | 秩序破坏，黄金配置价值长存，长多可介入【715-744】 | | | | 白银跟随黄金强势，目前白银需求受多国刺激经济、美国欧洲中国等货币政策 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 预期宽松等影响有增量，不过短期需求面有反复，商品属性比重较多，白银品 种弹性大，关注 8550 附近表现，如果冲破，则新的交易空间打开。【8350-8550】 | | 铜 | 延续回落 | 特朗普关税冲击增加，美国数据疲软，经济衰退和需求不足担忧重现，短期多单止 盈落袋增加，铜延续回落，跌破 8 万整数关口支撑，建议投机等待充分回调后再背 | | | | 靠均线入场，中长期铜上行趋势仍在，沪铜关注区间【79000-82000】 | | 锌 | 回落 | 有色板块回调，海外锌矿复产，锌精矿加工费继续上移，锌震荡回落，前期高位空 单继续持有， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean meal market is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The rapeseed meal market will follow the trend of soybean meal. The palm oil market will have short - term high - level oscillations. The cotton market will stop falling and consolidate. The jujube market will operate weakly. The pig market will have weak oscillations [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main soybean meal contract closed at 2851 yuan/ton, up 1.35%. The national average spot price was 3163.43 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The average national soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis of different contracts also changed [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Brazilian soybean production is stable. Argentina may face insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days. The US - China soybean trade dispute has temporarily ended. The announced US soybean planting area decreased, but the ending inventory was higher than expected. The US will impose a 10% tariff on China in April, and China will impose a 10% tariff on US soybeans. In April, domestic soybean imports will increase, with an average monthly import of over 10 million tons from April to June [1][3]. - **Outlook**: It will continue to operate at a high level in the short term. Near - month contracts need to pay attention to the risk of weakening due to the expected increase in soybean imports in April [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The domestic coastal oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories decreased this week, and the pressure marginally improved [1][5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, which was negative for Canadian rapeseed prices. China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, but rapeseed was not included, and there are many ways to deliver rapeseed meal, so the actual positive impact is limited [1][5]. - **Outlook**: It will follow the trend of soybean meal in the short term due to the lack of new fundamental guidance [1][5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 9104 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The national average price was 9605 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The inventory decreased, and the market sentiment showed changes in the proportion of bullish, bearish, and neutral views [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: The Ramadan festival in March led to a decline in international import demand. Southeast Asian palm oil production began to recover in March. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in April, and the export tariff will be 124 US dollars/ton. The US plans to increase the biodiesel blending volume in 2026 and later, with the minimum increase exceeding 40% compared to 2025 [1][6][7]. - **Outlook**: It will have short - term high - level oscillations. The price is expected to change from strong to weak, and the current price increase is regarded as a rebound under event influence [1][6][7]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2505 closed at 13540 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The domestic spot price increased slightly. The international and domestic cotton inventories,开机 rates, and other indicators showed certain changes [8]. - **Influencing Factors**: The USDA slightly lowered the US cotton planting intention, which provided limited support. Domestically, the intended cotton planting area in 2025 increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The downstream demand was weak, with slow - growing orders, low开机 rates, and negative corporate profits. The export was under pressure due to tariff policies [9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: It will stop falling and consolidate in the short term, with the market waiting for macro data. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly in the range, and attention should be paid to relevant industrial policies [11]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: The main jujube contract CJ2505 closed at 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [12][13]. - **Influencing Factors**: The downstream market entered the off - season, with more arrivals in the sales area. Seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, squeezing the jujube market [13][14]. - **Outlook**: It will operate weakly in the near term, and attention should be paid to the new production season [14]. Pig - **Market Situation**: The main pig contract Lh2505 closed at 13245 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The domestic pig spot price increased slightly. The inventory,出栏 volume,开工 rate, and profit indicators showed certain changes [15][16]. - **Influencing Factors**: The supply pressure in the pig market continued to be released, with sufficient supply of standard pigs. The demand was still weak, and the second - fattening enthusiasm decreased [16][17]. - **Outlook**: It will have weak oscillations. The main 2505 contract is expected to continue to operate at a low level after being under pressure, and attention should be paid to the data of piglets for potential arbitrage opportunities in the second half of the year [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual investment outlooks for different varieties, including "strengthening," "oscillating," "rebounding," "weakening," and "going short at high levels" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple varieties in the commodity market, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, bottle chips, glass, soda ash, and methanol. It provides core views, basic logics, and strategy recommendations for each variety, along with price ranges [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Strengthening [1] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances, such as the tense relationship between the US and Iran, the unexpected decline in US crude oil production in January, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and the continued US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, have led to a rise in oil prices [1][4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium to long - term, there is a strong downward pressure on the oil price center after the third quarter due to the supply - surplus situation. In the short - term, the trend is strong, and short - position holders should be cautious. SC is expected to be in the range of [545 - 560] [5]. LPG - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The upward pressure on oil prices has increased after continuous rebounds. The fundamentals of LPG are mixed, with a decrease in commodity volume on the supply side, high port inventories, and a recent decline in downstream profits [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the strengthening of upstream crude oil and no major driving forces in the fundamentals, it is expected to oscillate. Technical indicators show short - term oscillation. Long - position holders should take profits, and bull spread options can be sold. PG is expected to be in the range of [4600 - 4700] [9]. L - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil is strong, the parking ratio has decreased significantly, and social inventories have decreased slightly. However, supply exceeds demand, and there is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production is high [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short at high levels. L is expected to be in the range of [7600 - 7740] [12]. PP - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The parking ratio remains high. In the short - term, it follows the cost - end and shows strength. In the long - term, the pressure of new device production restricts the upward space [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [7260 - 7360] [15]. PVC - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened slightly, social inventories have declined from a high level, and the warehouse receipts are being cancelled in March. The market is oscillating at a low level. The regular spring maintenance from April to May is about to start [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on pullbacks. V is expected to be in the range of [5020 - 5140] [18]. PX - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the overall maintenance volume of downstream PTA is high. The improvement in supply - demand is limited. The crude oil price has stabilized recently but is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing but remains high [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. PX is expected to be in the range of [6850 - 7020] [21]. PTA - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: PTA devices are under planned maintenance, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to ease. The downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. The inventory is slightly high [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks, but the rebound height may be limited. TA is expected to be in the range of [4830 - 4930] [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Weakening [1] - **Basic Logic**: The recent increase in device maintenance has not effectively alleviated the supply pressure due to high imports. The demand is good but is expected to weaken. The cost support is weak [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The recent market is oscillating weakly, and range - bound operations are recommended. EG is expected to be in the range of [4440 - 4520] [27]. Bottle Chips - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to device capacity expansion. The soft - drink market is in the off - season, but the demand is expected to improve, and the export growth rate is high. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is expected to improve in April [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. PR is expected to be in the range of [6010 - 6080] [30]. Glass - **Core View**: Oscillating [1] - **Basic Logic**: Macroeconomic data has improved, the supply has declined from a low level, the terminal demand is weakly recovering, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The market is undervalued near the coal - based cost, and there is intense capital game [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1180 - 1220] [33]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Weakening [1] - **Basic Logic**: The spring maintenance is nearly over, and the supply is expected to increase. The terminal demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the speculative demand is insufficient. The inventory of soda ash factories has increased from a decline, and the absolute inventory level is high [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1370 - 1400] [35]. Methanol - **Core View**: Rebounding [1] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based methanol devices are entering the spring maintenance stage, but the maintenance volume is lower than expected. The supply pressure remains high. The methanol arrival volume is lower than the same period, but overseas devices are gradually resuming, and the future arrival volume is expected to increase. The demand is continuously improving, but downstream feedback needs attention. The social inventory is decreasing [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels. MA is expected to be in the range of [2470 - 2520] [1]. Urea - **Core View**: Go short at high levels [1] - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing seasonally but remains slightly high. The cost support is weak [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The current daily production of urea remains high, and the industrial demand is expected to weaken. The agricultural spring fertilization demand is about to end. The supply - demand is still loose, and chasing the rise should be cautious. UR is expected to be in the range of [1840 - 1880] [1].