| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 相关会议措施对黑色系提振有限，市场情绪逐渐消退，市场回归产业逻辑。 目前供需层面矛盾不大，螺纹周表需升至 292 万吨，超过去年同期，库存 | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 去化良好。整体上螺纹钢行情下有支撑上有压力，短期维持震荡运行。中 | | | | 期关注高铁水背景下需求季节性回落带来的供需矛盾激化风险。【3050， | | | 3130】 | | | | | 基本面方面，热卷供需双增，目前产量处于同期中间水平，但表观需求同 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 期偏高，导致库存去化速度较快，出口仍在高位，供需矛盾不大，总体维 | | | | 持震荡局面。宏观消息提振有限，短期维持区间震荡运行。【3170，3250】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。供给短阶段性发到货双降，铁矿供需结构偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。单边短 | | | | 线参与，跨期正 ...

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3109 | -13 | 热卷01 | 3224 | -8 | | 螺纹05 | 3031 | -29 | 热卷05 | 3181 | 2 | | 螺纹10 | 3077 | -19 | 热卷10 | 3196 | -8 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2940 | 0 | 张家港废钢 | 2120 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3190 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3210 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3210 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3240 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3210 | -10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3260 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3430 | -20 | 热卷:广州 | 3300 | 20 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3350 | 0 | 热卷：成都 | 3420 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东、印巴地缘情绪不减，美加、美欧关税谈判一波三折，中美即将关税谈判， | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 全球购金力量仍然较多，长期看国际秩序破坏，全球信任崩塌，去美元化是主 | | | | 力，黄金是未来秩序筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【780-828】 | | | | 短期关税谈判使得白银等基本金属情绪有所好转，各国财政刺激预期增强，白 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 银有支撑，但白银弹性大，受黄金和基本金属影响较大，仍处于大的震荡区间 | | | | 附近，操作上高位区间思路对待。【8100-8380】 | | | | 美国非农数据超预期，经济衰退预期减弱，中美和谈开启，市场情绪进一步回暖， | | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 铜精矿紧张持续，国内库存持续去化，警惕软挤仓风险，短期建议铜逢低轻仓试多， | | | | 中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77500，79500】 | | | 国内 | 4 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49，经济景气度下滑，镀锌受黑色钢材影响开工 | | 锌 | 反弹抛 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - **Rebound**: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA/R, ethylene glycol, and asphalt are expected to rebound. The reasons include the release of negative factors, trade negotiations between China and the US, and the rebound of upstream oil prices [1]. - **Stabilization**: L and PP are expected to stabilize. The basis has strengthened significantly, and the oil price has rebounded. However, in the long - term, there is pressure from new device production and potential downward movement of crude oil prices [1]. - **Oscillation**: PVC is expected to oscillate. With the increase in calcium carbide prices, a slight increase in warehouse receipts, and the start of trade negotiations between China and the US, the market sentiment has improved [1]. - **Weakness**: Glass is expected to be weak. Overseas tariff concerns persist, there is no incremental domestic policy, and the supply is stable at a low level while demand recovery is slow [1]. - **Neutral with Oscillation**: Soda ash is expected to oscillate at a low level. There are maintenance plans in May, leading to an expected reduction in supply, but new production capacity is expected, and the inventory is at a high level [1]. - **Bearish**: Methanol and urea are expected to be bearish. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, with relatively weak cost support [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Condition**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, while the settlement price of the domestic market's first trading day decreased. WTI rose by 3.43%, Brent rose by 3.19%, and SC decreased by 3.92% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: After the significant decline during the May Day holiday, the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase was released. China decided to engage in contact with the US. OPEC+ started increasing production in April, and 8 member countries will increase production by 414,000 barrels per day in June. The EIA expects global oil demand in 2025 to be 103.7 million barrels per day. US commercial crude and gasoline inventories decreased [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, the oil supply will be in excess, and the oil price will fluctuate between $55 - 65. In the short - term, there is a technical rebound after the over - decline, but the upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to be bearish on the rebound. SC should be monitored in the range of [460 - 470] [4]. LPG - **Market Condition**: On May 6, the PG main contract closed at 4,399 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,770 yuan/ton, 4,935 yuan/ton, and 5,230 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Basic Logic**: During the May Day holiday, international oil prices weakened under the double impact of OPEC+ expansion and tariff disturbances. After the decline, the negative factors were released, and the cost side stabilized, causing LPG to rebound with the oil price. The warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly, and the PDH device profit remained flat while the alkylation device profit decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand of some devices changed [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, its trend is mainly linked to upstream crude oil, and it is bearish with potential for further decline. Technically, it rebounds on the daily line but lacks upward momentum, showing an oscillatory trend. It is recommended to sell bull spread options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4430 - 4470] [8]. L - **Market Condition**: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **Basic Logic**: New production capacity has been put into operation this year, and some import windows are open. The agricultural film is at the end of the seasonal peak. The basis has strengthened significantly, the oil price has rebounded, and the device maintains high - level operation with sufficient supply. Short - term short positions can be partially closed. In the long - term, due to high device production pressure and potential downward movement of crude oil prices, it is recommended to be bearish on rallies [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bearish on rallies. L should be monitored in the range of [6980 - 7080] [11]. PP - **Market Condition**: The L - PP09 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **Basic Logic**: A large - scale PP device was put into operation in the first quarter, and attention should be paid to the progress of a new PDH device. Due to tariff disturbances, product exports are under pressure. Many devices have restarted, and the short position of the L - PP spread can be closed. In the long - term, due to high device production pressure and potential downward movement of crude oil prices, it is recommended to be bearish on rallies [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bearish on rallies. PP should be monitored in the range of [6960 - 7080] [14]. PVC - **Market Condition**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **Basic Logic**: A new device was put into operation in January, and the supply is under high pressure. The decline in real estate completion area has narrowed, and the downstream start - up rate has decreased seasonally. PVC exports from January to March increased significantly. With the increase in calcium carbide prices, a slight increase in warehouse receipts, and the start of trade negotiations between China and the US, the market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and be bullish on pullbacks [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term and be bullish on pullbacks. V should be monitored in the range of [4850 - 4970] [17]. PX - **Market Condition**: On April 30, the spot price in East China was 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,212 yuan/ton (+6). The basis in East China was 288 yuan/ton (-6) [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. Domestic and overseas devices have different maintenance and production reduction situations. The PXN spread is at a low level in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread is seasonally high. The demand side is weakening as many PTA devices are under maintenance. The inventory is high. In May, the fundamentals continue to improve, but it follows cost fluctuations recently. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX should be monitored in the range of [6130, 6280] [19]. PTA - **Market Condition**: On April 30, the PTA price in East China was 4,560 yuan/ton (+20), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,434 yuan/ton (-6). The TA5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan/ton (+12), and the basis in East China was 126 yuan/ton (+26) [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Many PTA devices are under maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The downstream polyester load is high but is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high. PTA inventory is decreasing, and the spot processing fee is at a low level. It follows cost fluctuations. After the holiday, it opened lower with low valuation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA should be monitored in the range of [4370, 4480] [22]. MEG - **Market Condition**: On April 30, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,214 yuan/ton (-6), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,155 yuan/ton (-32). The EG5 - 9 spread was 33 yuan/ton (-2), and the basis in East China was 59 yuan/ton (+26) [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Many devices are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. The arrival volume is high, and the import in March exceeded expectations. The demand side is relatively good but is expected to weaken, and the terminal weaving inventory is high. The inventory is high, and the cost support is weak. After the holiday, it is expected to open lower. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG should be monitored in the range of [4130, 4230] [25]. Glass - **Market Condition**: The spot market prices mostly decreased, the futures market was weak, the basis in Shahe weakened, and the warehouse receipts decreased [26]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro level, the Sino - US trade war has entered a new stage, and there is no clear incremental policy information. Tariff concerns remain, and the macro sentiment is cautious. The supply pressure is slowly decreasing, but the demand improvement is slow, and the market is expected to be pessimistic. The supply is stable at a low level, the demand shows seasonal improvement but is lower than the same period, and the upstream inventory has increased again. Pay attention to global market risk preferences, downstream production and sales, and domestic hedging policies [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1060, 1090], and it is under pressure from the 5 - day moving average [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Condition**: The spot price of heavy soda ash decreased, the futures market was under pressure and declined, the basis widened, the warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecasts increased [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Soda ash enterprises have maintenance plans in May, and the supply may shrink again. However, the start - up rate remains high, and major large - scale devices are operating stably. The downstream demand is weak, and the terminal users are mostly on the sidelines. The alkali plant inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute inventory is still high. The profits of the two main production methods have increased. Pay attention to device maintenance, the trends of related industrial chain products, and macro - sentiment changes [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1320, 1350] [29]. Methanol - **Market Condition**: On April 30, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,443 yuan/ton (+5), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,251 yuan/ton (-27). The basis in East China was 216 yuan/ton (+28), and the port basis was 192 yuan/ton (+33). The China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit was 72 US dollars/ton (+1) [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Previously maintained devices have resumed production, and the overseas methanol import is expected to be gradually realized, increasing supply pressure. The domestic methanol comprehensive profit remains high, and the weighted start - up load continues to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the MTO device start - up load has decreased. The traditional demand is in the seasonal off - season. The cost support is weak. In the short - term, the methanol market remains relatively loose, and it is recommended to be bearish on rallies [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA should be monitored in the range of [2220, 2260] [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish and oscillating. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills have increased for four consecutive weeks, and soybean crushing has rebounded slightly month - on - month. The supply is expected to increase gradually. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's May report and US soybean planting weather [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bearish. The inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills have decreased month - on - month, and the rapeseed meal inventory is lower than the same period in the past two years. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded again, increasing the substitution of rapeseed meal. Although it rebounded slightly yesterday, the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed. Pay attention to Canadian rapeseed export and the US Department of Agriculture's report [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. The domestic palm oil commercial inventory is low, and there is no supply - side pressure. Pay attention to the international palm oil price. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April. The domestic palm oil opened lower and closed down yesterday. The production and sales of palm oil in Southeast Asia are expected to increase in May, and the inventory accumulation cycle has started [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The sowing of US cotton continues, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. The market sentiment has recovered, and US cotton is expected to continue to strengthen in the short - term. In China, the cotton sowing is coming to an end, and the new - season output is expected to be high. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expectation of foreign trade improvement, which may drive the short - term rebound of the market [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillating strongly. The new - season red dates have not blossomed, and the old - crop high inventory pressure remains. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals have increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has emerged, which may strengthen the short - term support of the market [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline. The operation should maintain a bearish idea, and beware of the risk of secondary fattening pressure release from late May to June [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2915 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3544.57 yuan/ton, down 1.60%. The soybean crushing profit in Zhangjiagang decreased by 189.40 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the positive impact of trade tariffs has ended, and there is insufficient rainfall in US soybean - planting areas. Domestically, 4 - 6 monthly average imports are over 10 million tons. As of April 24, domestic soybean inventories in ports and oil mills increased for four consecutive weeks, and the soybean meal inventory was still decreasing [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2548 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2576.84 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 240 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Situation**: As of April 30, coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories increased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May. The 5 - 7 month rapeseed import is expected to decline year - on - year, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has expanded [7]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 7974 yuan/ton, down 2.14% from the previous day. The national average price was 8760 yuan/ton, down 1.02%. The weekly commercial inventory decreased by 1.19 million tons [8]. - **Market Situation**: As of May 2, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased. India's April palm oil import is expected to decline by 24%. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in April, and the inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started [9]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12745 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 0.49% to 14139 yuan/ton. The mainstream area spinning mill operating rate decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, as of May 4, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and Brazilian cotton production is expected to increase. Domestically, the 2025 cotton intention - planting area increased by 1.5%, and the output is estimated to be about 7 million tons. The demand is in the off - season, but the foreign trade expectation has improved [11]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9045 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The spot prices of various grades remained stable. The arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang increased by 1 vehicle [13]. - **Market Situation**: In the production area, southern Xinjiang gray - date trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The 36 - sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, but is still higher than the same period. After the May Day holiday, the downstream arrivals increased, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect emerged [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13960 yuan/ton, up 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14930 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The national sample enterprise pig slaughter volume increased by 16.82% month - on - month [15]. - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the farm slaughter progress in April was slow, and the supply rhythm slowed down. In the medium - term, the third - quarter pig market may face increased slaughter pressure. The current standard - fat price difference is positive, and the secondary - fattening sentiment has slowed down. After the stocking, the slaughter demand growth has slowed down [16].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 节日期间钢坯现货累计调涨 20 元/吨，螺纹周表需升至 292 万吨，超过去 | | | | 年同期,库存去化良好。供需数据层面矛盾不大，甚至表现偏紧。但节日期 | | 螺纹钢 | 震荡运行 | 间外盘原油、铁矿石等出现不同幅度下跌，外部情绪偏空。预计螺纹钢行 | | | | 情下有支撑，上有压力，短期或仍呈区间震荡运行。【3070，3140】 | | | | 热卷供需双增，目前产量处于同期中间水平，但表观需求同期偏高，导致 | | 热卷 | 震荡运行 | 库存去化速度较快，供需情况有所好转。虽然后期出口存在回落预期，但 | | | | 暂时未有兑现。短期或维持区间震荡运行。【3170，3250】 | | | | 铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。随着外矿发 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 运逐渐恢复放量，铁矿基本面边际转弱。终端需求边际转弱，与高铁水的 | | | | 分化矛盾逐渐积累。单边短线参与，跨期正套持有。【690,730】 | | | | 铁水日产量继续上升至 245.42 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided in the reports. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each metal variety, such as "high - level oscillation" for gold, "wide - range adjustment" for silver, "buy on dips" for copper, etc. [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports analyze multiple metals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate. The core views are based on factors like economic data, trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. For example, gold is supported by long - term de - dollarization and global asset re - allocation, while copper is affected by global supply shortages and trade policies. [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold - **Core View**: High - level oscillation. Long - term strategic allocation value persists due to international order disruption and de - dollarization. [1] - **Price Range**: [766 - 800] [1] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the outer - market gold declined continuously, but yesterday it basically recovered the previous losses. [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic recession risk rises as the Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3% due to surging imports and weak consumption. However, strong non - farm payroll data reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged as trade negotiations are still uncertain, and global asset re - allocation and fiscal - monetary easing will support gold. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term sentiment is slack, but can participate after stabilization. Long - term logic remains intact. [3] Silver - **Core View**: Wide - range adjustment. It is affected by gold and base metals, and currently in a large oscillation range. [1] - **Price Range**: [8100 - 8380] [1] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it with an oscillation mindset within the current range. [3] Copper - **Core View**: Buy on dips. The copper concentrate shortage persists, and domestic inventory is decreasing. Be vigilant against soft squeeze - out risks. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE copper [77000, 78500]; LME copper [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [1][5] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME copper rebounded in a V - shape, with an overall increase of 0.3%. [4] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is disrupted, and processing fees are at new lows. Domestic electrolytic copper production is increasing year - on - year but decreasing month - on - month. Global copper inventory is flowing to the US, and domestic inventory is decreasing, with a risk of soft squeeze - out. [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the easing of macro - sentiment, buy on dips near the 77,000 mark. Long - term optimism remains due to the global copper shortage. [5] Zinc - **Core View**: Sell on rebounds. Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak in the long - term. [1] - **Price Range**: SHFE zinc [22300, 22900]; LME zinc [2580, 2680] dollars/ton [1][7] - **Market Performance**: During the May Day holiday, LME zinc first declined and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.7%. [6] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to increase, and domestic smelter raw material supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weakening as the peak season ends, and the steel market is sluggish. [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds in the short - term. Seize short - selling opportunities in the long - term. [7] Aluminum - **Core View**: Under pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday, and downstream processing enterprises' operating rates are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [19500 - 20100] [1] - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, while alumina is stabilizing at a low level. [8] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas tariff policy impact is weakening. Domestic inventory is decreasing, but downstream demand is weakening. For alumina, supply - demand surplus is temporarily alleviated, and inventory is at a high level. [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly buy on dips for SHFE aluminum, focusing on the terminal peak - season performance. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak. [9] Nickel - **Core View**: Under pressure. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is also at a high level. [1] - **Price Range**: [120000 - 127000] [11] - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then declines. [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment impact is weakening. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic refined nickel production is high, and inventory is at a high level. Stainless steel inventory reduction faces resistance, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, focusing on inventory changes. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Bearish in May. Supply - demand remains loose, inventory is accumulating, and ore prices are declining. [1] - **Price Range**: [65000, 66500] [1] - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened slightly lower, rose and then fell, hitting a new low. [12] - **Industrial Logic**: In May, supply is sufficient as salt - lake lithium production enters the peak season, and overseas lithium ore shipments increase. Demand shows no seasonal increase, and tariff policies affect exports. Costs are decreasing as ore prices approach last year's lows. [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Weak operation, sell on rebounds. [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the float glass market faced dual pressures of "weak reality + weak expectation", with the price center continuing to decline. Macroscopically, there was no clear incremental policy information from the Politburo meeting in April, and the Sino - US trade war was at a stalemate. Although market risk appetite had somewhat recovered, tariff concerns remained, and the macro - sentiment was still cautious. Fundamentally, glass production and daily melting volume remained stable at a low level, with limited expectation of supply reduction. After the cost decreased, manufacturers' cold - repair plans slowed down, and the supply side could not effectively support the glass. Demand showed seasonal improvement, but the number of days of downstream deep - processing orders was significantly lower than the same period. The decline of the real estate industry narrowed but was still in the negative range, and the market demand expectation was weak. Upstream glass enterprises re - accumulated inventory, and under the pressure of medium - level inventory, the rebound of the futures market was suppressed to some extent. In the medium - to - long term, the annual supply of glass showed a downward trend, and demand had periodic increases. Prices would fluctuate significantly with changes in fundamentals. It was recommended that the industry seize the opportunity of high - level hedging. Attention should be paid to global market risk appetite, downstream production and sales, and domestic hedging policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: As of April 29, the FG2509 contract closed at 1,234 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of - 9.4% [5]. - **Spot Market**: As of April 29, the monthly change range of spot prices was between - 2.3% and + 3.2% [5]. - **Basis**: In April, spot glass quotes showed regional differentiation, with the national average price increasing by 10 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, driving the basis to strengthen. The basis of the main FG509 contract in Hubei was 68, and the basis rate was 5.6% [8]. - **Spread**: The spread of the FG05 - 09 contract was - 44 points, with the near - month contract weaker than the far - month contract. The spread of the FG09 - 01 contract was - 50 points, showing a pattern of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The glass showed a contango structure, with the near - month contract at par, and the reality was weak but the space was limited. The spread between soda ash and the glass 09 contract was 242 points, the same as on March 20 and 50 points wider than on April 20 [11][13]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization**: In April, the capacity utilization rate decreased and was lower than the same period last year. The current start - up rate of the float glass industry was 75.42%, unchanged from the previous month and - 9.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 78.41%, - 0.62% month - on - month and - 7.327% year - on - year [16]. - **Daily Melting Volume**: Currently, the daily melting volume of float glass was 157,200 tons, - 0.79% month - on - month and - 9.8% year - on - year. The monthly average daily output was 158,200 tons. It was estimated that the glass output in April was 4.74 million tons ( - 3.1% month - on - month and - 9.3% year - on - year) [19]. - **Cold - repair Loss**: In April, the daily average loss of float glass was 42,400 tons. It was estimated that the maintenance loss in April was 1.27 million tons ( - 3.6% month - on - month and + 46.8% year - on - year) [21]. 3.3 Demand Side - **Deep - processing Orders**: As of mid - April, the average number of days of orders for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, + 13.4% month - on - month and - 17.7% year - on - year. The performance of deep - processing orders varied. Some enterprises reported no obvious improvement compared with March and were lower than the same period last year. Currently, scattered orders maintained production, while some orders increased, especially in South China, Northeast China, Northwest China, and Southwest China, with little change in East China, North China, and Central China. As of April 25, 2025, the start - up rate of Chinese LOW - E glass sample enterprises was 46.7%, - 13.1 percentage points year - on - year [27]. - **Real Estate Demand**: From January to March 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate sales area, new construction area, completion area, and development funds sources were - 3.0% ( + 2.1% month - on - month), - 24.4% ( + 5.2% month - on - month), - 14.3% ( + 1.3% month - on - month), and - 3.6% ( + 13.4% month - on - month) respectively. The decline in real estate sales, completion, and funds sources narrowed [30]. 3.4 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: Currently, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 65.473 million heavy boxes, - 2.3% month - on - month and + 9.25% year - on - year. The inventory days were 29.4 days, 0.8 days less than in March and 4.8 days more than the same period last year [35]. - **Shahe Area Inventory**: Currently, the social inventory in the Shahe area was 3.6 million heavy boxes, - 21.7% month - on - month and the same as the same period last year. The replenishment of medium - level traders slowed down, and the inventory of upstream enterprises accumulated [39]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Currently, the cost of petroleum coke - based production was 1,208 yuan/ton, + 4.5% month - on - month and - 1.47% year - on - year; the cost of coal - based production was 1,067 yuan/ton, - 2.11% month - on - month and - 18.55% year - on - year; the cost of natural gas - based production was 1,503 yuan/ton, - 2.02% month - on - month and - 12.11% year - on - year [44]. - **Profit**: Currently, the production profit of petroleum coke - based production was - 38.35 yuan/ton, - 18.11 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of coal - based production was 145 yuan/ton, + 56.45 yuan/ton month - on - month; the production profit of natural gas - based production was - 153 yuan/ton, + 38.47 yuan/ton month - on - month [47]. 3.6 Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: The new main 09 contract reached around 1,080, falling near the dynamic coal - based cost. Dynamically track the suppression of the 20 - day moving average, and 1,150 became the watershed between bulls and bears [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread of the glass 9 - 1 contract was currently around - 50, and the market was in a back structure. Reverse arbitrage could still be participated in [3]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Currently, the glass industry chain showed the transmission characteristics of upstream inventory accumulation, medium - level sales stagnation, and downstream weakness. Currently, the inventory of upstream glass enterprises and medium - level traders was higher than the same period. The upstream and medium - level could consider selling hedging around 1,200 - 1,250 when the futures market was at a large premium based on their own spot inventory and sales situation [3].

分析师：何慧 【策略】 单边策略：目前主力09合约关注20日均线压制情况，短期1380成为多空分水岭，盘面围绕联碱成本在1230-1320运行。 套利策略：目前纯碱9-1价差在-10附近，几乎平水，考虑到夏季季节性检修，以及年底天然碱新增产能投产计划，9-1正套参与。 FG-SA09合约价差为-270左右，4月中旬玻璃-纯碱价差走弱，目前仍未止跌迹象，在-320至-360之间再尝试参与多玻璃空纯碱操作。 套保策略：目前碱厂库存绝对高位，上游企业可依据自身库存情况关注09合约在盘面大幅升水现货时，在1400-1450附近卖出套保 机会。下游玻璃企业刚需补库，可在盘面低于现货交割成本时买入套保。 【风险】检修超预期（上行风险）、煤炭及相关燃料走强（上行风险）、重回累库（下行风险）、宏观政策不及预期（下行风险） 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.04.30 【观点】4月在中美关税政策冲击下，商品市场弱势运行，叠加碱厂检修装置复产，纯碱期现价格联动下行。供应方面，碱厂5月检 修计划增多，市场存供应缩 ...

技术分析看黑色月报： 震荡走低小阴线，虽有反复势难改 黑色研究团队： 李海蓉 Z0015849 陈为昌 Z0019850 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货 时间：2025.04.28 目录 C o n t e n t s 1 螺纹低开阴锤头，前低一线有反复 2 铁矿震荡小阴线，破位下行是关键 3 双焦继续下跌势，焦炭阴星煤阴线 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 黑色技术分析月报要点： 【黑链指数】黑链指数代表了黑色整体走势，黑色月度上看报收小阴线，减仓放量，连续三个小阴线延续跌势，形成"三个红小兵" 的组合，且本月波幅及成交同步扩大，为推进信号，后市仍有下跌潜能。只是本月有减仓的行为，主要是交割月前一个月移仓换月、 散户退场以及短线价格反弹造成。 【螺纹加权】螺纹加权月线是一个新低阴锤头，减仓缩量，连续三个月以阴线报收，有三个红小兵之嫌。当月走势则是低开、震荡走 低，探底回升。整体呈现二次探底，在前低受支撑的状态，这也是继上个月破位下行，本月继续走低但有反抽的正常走势，从另一个 角度看的话，虽有反复，但整体走势已经进入下跌走势。 【铁矿加权】铁矿加权本月继上月低开低走小阴线，本月高开震 ...