投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-01-20 政策预期反复，新能源金属宽幅震荡 新能源观点：政策预期反复，新能源⾦属宽幅震荡 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需延续偏紧格局，供应扰动担忧持续，但价格快 速上涨后，下游消费趋于谨慎；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，多晶硅收 储平台成立，但反垄断担忧让供应收缩预期淡化。中短期来看，政策 预期反复，新能源金属宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较 强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但 需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推 高价格重心。 ⼯业硅观点：关注西北开⼯变化，硅价有所⽀撑。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅价格延续震荡。 碳酸锂观点：基本⾯较强，锂价⾼位震荡。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0021453 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the agricultural products market shows a complex situation with different trends for each variety. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others are likely to be weak or strong in different periods [5][6][10]. - For example, in the short - term, log prices are expected to be volatile and strong, while sugar prices are expected to be volatile and weak [22][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats will fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic policies are relatively loose. The US Department of Agriculture raised the global soybean production and inventory in 25/26. The inventory of palm oil in Malaysia increased, and the market sentiment of rapeseed oil was affected by trade agreements and bio - diesel news. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil will fluctuate, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to consider phased buying hedging after corrections and the strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and soybean meal is testing the lower support. - **Logic**: Internationally, the supply of US soybeans is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds is decreasing. Domestically, the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact, but factors such as pre - holiday stocking support the price of soybean meal. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate, and rapeseed meal will fluctuate weakly [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: Snow disrupts logistics, and prices are still supported. - **Logic**: The supply is in a tight balance in the short - term. Snow disrupts logistics, and the supply is tight. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a positive impact on prices. - **Outlook**: The market will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [10]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Snow boosts the spot price, but the futures market still has inventory pressure. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the early - month slaughter rhythm is slow, and snow drives up the price. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to improve in the second half of 2026 [12]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The macro - driving force weakens, and the market enters a wide - range fluctuation. - **Logic**: The rubber price is affected by the overall commodity adjustment. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the demand is weak after the price rise. - **Outlook**: It will return to a wide - range fluctuation in the short - term and maintain the idea of buying on dips in the medium - term [15]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It is in a corrective adjustment, and the market closes down. - **Logic**: After the previous price increase, there is a lack of upward momentum, but the downside space is limited due to tight raw materials. The medium - term bullish logic remains. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is pressure in the short - term, and it will be volatile and strong in the medium - term [17]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It continues to adjust, and the cotton price closes down. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the cotton price is in an adjustment period after the previous rise. The new cotton is in the concentrated listing period, and the consumption is relatively good. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price continues to fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, and the supply in the domestic market is increasing. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of hardwood pulp turns down, and the fundamental concerns increase. - **Logic**: The import cost is rising, but the demand is entering the off - season, and the liquidity of softwood pulp is abundant. The hardwood pulp price is showing signs of decline. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak in the short - term [19]. 3.1.10 Double - Glued Paper - **Viewpoint**: The commodity is adjusting, and double - glued paper is running weakly. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment declines, and the futures market is under pressure from warehouse receipts. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak [20][21]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Affected by the black sector, logs fall below the valuation. - **Logic**: The futures price is affected by the black sector and falls into the low - valuation area. The fundamentals are improving marginally. The delivery pressure in some areas is weakening, and the spot price in Jiangsu is rising. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and strong in the short - term, and the 03 contract can be operated in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [22]. 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index shows different trends. The commodity 20 index increased by 0.20%, the industrial products index decreased by 0.28%, and the agricultural products index decreased by 0.74% on January 19, 2026 [182][184].

Report Overview - On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of the pure benzene 2603 contract and the styrene 2602 contract were 5,827 yuan/ton and 7,295 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of +3.48% and +1.86% [2] Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene is in a transitional period where the fundamentals may shift, with significant real - world pressure. Although high inventories may limit short - term increases, there will be a quarterly improvement in Q1. There is a possibility of an early market manifestation under the consistent expectation similar to the polyester chain [3] Reasons for the Rise - **Port De - stocking**: As of January 19, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 20.7 tons, a reduction of 2.7 tons from the previous week. From January 12 - 18, there were no arrivals and about 2.7 tons of pick - ups, which was the first de - stocking since November 10 [3] - **Downstream Profit Boost**: Driven by export deals and unexpected maintenance, styrene supply and demand are tight, and the price difference with pure benzene is widening. Two styrene plants are about to resume production, and terminal export growth drives demand [3] - **Potential Tariff Cancellation**: There are discussions about the US canceling the 15% tariff on South Korean pure benzene, which is seen as a potential positive factor [3] - **Catch - up in Aromatic Allocation**: In the chemical industry, aromatics are a multi - allocation sector. After the previous rally of PX - PTA, it entered a digestion and feedback phase. Pure benzene, with a relatively low valuation, has become a multi - allocation choice for funds [3] Market Outlook - From the balance sheet, the supply - demand gap remains positive from January to February but decreases month - on - month. There may be a small amount of de - stocking in March. High inventories may limit short - term increases, but there will be a quarterly improvement in Q1. If the US cancels the tariff on South Korean pure benzene, it will greatly benefit the domestic pure benzene balance sheet and raise its valuation [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-16 伊朗局势暂时平息，原油带动化⼯同步 调整 美国对伊朗采取军事行动的风险减弱，油价创出2025年6月以来最大 跌幅。彭博报道，伊朗承诺不会处决抗议者，以色列总理要求美国总统特 朗普推迟对伊朗的军事打击计划。这一消息降低了美国立即采取军事行动 的可能性，全球三大基准原油下跌超过4%。海关总署数据显示，中国12月 原油进口量为5597.3万吨，1-12月累计进口量同比增加4.4%。中国原油进 口需求仍维持较高增长。伊朗局势暂时平息，未来俄乌的扰动仍需关注。 板块逻辑： 化工期价震荡加剧，普遍跟随原油大幅回调。CCF报道，本周聚酯开 工持稳，PTA开工下滑，EG开工环比走高，合成气制（工艺）是开工提升 的主力；聚酯终端织造开工的季节性下行趋势较慢。苯乙烯链条则显示自 身开工持稳，下游开工提升对EB需求环比增长3.16%，产业相对健康。聚 烯烃的反弹也没有引发开工的大幅走高，PE开工环比下行，PP开工环比略 增。化工此次调整空间将不会达到12月的低点，因供应并未与价格同步走 高，投资者仍以震荡思路对待市场。 原油：伊朗 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-01-16 股市缩量调整，债市表现分化 股指期货：股市低开震荡，热⻔板块⾼低轮动 股指期权：交投热度降温，隐波显著回落 国债期货：结构性⼯具率先发⼒ 股指期货方面，周四沪指低开震荡，缩量调整，午盘小破4100点。板 块高低轮动主导，商业航天、AI应用调整，军工、传媒、计算机领跌，但 前期热门的贵金属、能源金属、存储芯片重新活跃，催化电子、化工、有 色金属领涨，呈现板块跷跷板。周三增仓的股指对冲空单，在周四集中平 仓，贴水小幅收敛，佐证资金自然止盈，而非担忧后续大跌风险。盘后公 布去年的金融数据，12月企业贷款与企业债券融资均显著强于季节性，投 资企稳回升、M1增速活跃。且增量政策开始释放，央行下调结构性货币政 策工具利率，并增加了相关结构性工具的额度，对经济的支持力度延续。 因此回调偏资金层面，中期两会前博弈经济政策预期和产业景气的逻辑不 变，抓住回撤的加仓良机，以IC多单配置为主，ETF投资者也可关注双创 相关。 风险因子：1）资金情绪过热；2）期权流动性超预期1）政策超预 期；2）股市上涨超预期；3）货币不及预期。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", with some varieties having specific outlooks like "Oscillation with a slight upward trend" for coking coal. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The off - season fundamentals are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. Steel enterprise复产 in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and the furnace charge price has the expectation of rising from a low level, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory continues to accumulate, there are disturbance expectations on the supply side, and the resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand sides need verification, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. [2][8] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel is low, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption keeps increasing, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to oscillate. [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow coking coal. [3][11] - Coking coal: As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum. [3][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, the upstream de - stocking pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price will mainly run around the cost valuation. [3][15] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the ferrosilicon market has both weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector. [3][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. [3][13] - Soda ash: The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity de - stocking. [3][13] 3.5 Individual Varieties - Steel products: The demand still has resilience, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. Steel mills still have room for复产, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure on the steel side. The fundamentals have limited highlights. With steel mill复产 and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures price will oscillate in a wide range. [8] - Iron ore: The hot metal production decreases month - on - month, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The port inventory is rising, the supply side has disturbance expectations, and the demand side is supported by hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [8] - Scrap steel: The arrival volume increases slightly, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces reaches a new high. The supply is low, the demand is supported, and the spot price is expected to oscillate. [10] - Coke: The hot metal production declines, and restocking continues. The cost side has strong support, and the fundamentals continue to improve. The futures price is expected to follow coking coal. [11] - Coking coal: The coking enterprises restock well, and the coal mine inventory decreases. The supply - demand pattern is gradually optimizing, and the futures and spot prices have upward momentum. [12] - Glass: The spot production and sales weaken, and a negative feedback between futures and spot is approaching. The current supply - demand is in surplus, and the price trend depends on whether there is more cold repair before the end of the year. [13] - Soda ash: The warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the spot price oscillates at a low level. The overall supply - demand is in surplus, oscillating in the short term and the price center will decline in the long term. [13] - Manganese silicon: The de - stocking pressure remains high, and the futures price is under pressure to decline. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price will mainly run around the cost valuation. [15] - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the cost support still exists. The market has both weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector. [17] 3.6 Index Information - On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.39%, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.63%, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.35%. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.38% on the day, increased by 0.06% in the past 5 days, increased by 4.68% in the past month, and increased by 2.21% since the beginning of the year. [102][104]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Silver experienced a significant correction after reaching a new historical high, mainly due to the cooling of tariff expectations, concentrated profit - taking, and increased volatility. Gold also declined but to a limited extent, with its safe - haven and monetary attributes remaining resilient [1][3]. - In the short term, attention should be paid to the decline in silver volatility and the repair of the position structure, while being vigilant about the amplified technical volatility under high - level oscillations. In the medium term, fundamentals and macro - logic will be the main drivers, and the correction is more conducive to the re - layout of long - term funds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - US senior officials met with Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers, but the communication failed to calm Trump's public statement about "taking over Greenland", increasing concerns about long - term geopolitical tensions between Copenhagen and Washington and raising the geopolitical uncertainty premium [2]. - Trump said the president "should have some say in Fed policy" and emphasized that he has no plan to replace Fed Chairman Powell [2]. - US Senate Republicans rejected a bill to limit the president's further military actions against Venezuela without congressional authorization [2]. Price Logic - **Gold**: In the overall correction of precious metals, gold was relatively stable. Although the suspension of tariffs in the US eased short - term policy disturbances, disputes over the Fed's independence, the "sell the US" narrative, and geopolitical uncertainties still provided medium - term support for gold. The decline in gold prices was more of a technical adjustment under the repair of risk appetite and did not change its configuration value as a hedging asset [3]. - **Silver**: The previous rise of silver was driven by tariff expectations, tight spot supply, and capital sentiment, with a growth rate significantly faster than the digestion ability of fundamentals. After the cooling of tariff expectations, concentrated profit - taking and a high - volatility environment led to a rapid price decline. In the medium term, supply constraints, industrial demand (such as photovoltaics), and the spill - over effect of gold still exist, but in the short term, time or price correction is needed to digest the over - crowded trading structure [3]. Market Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The commodity index was 2448.62, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index was 2809.04, up 1.08%; the industrial products index was 2362.72, up 0.62%; the PPI commodity index was 1466.29, up 0.70% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On January 14, 2026, the precious metals index was 4368.49, with a daily increase of 3.46%, a 5 - day increase of 9.90%, a 1 - month increase of 19.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.23% [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillating upwards [2] Core Viewpoints - The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and platinum and palladium prices are maintaining a wide - range oscillation. The prices of GFEX platinum and palladium main contracts dropped on January 15, with platinum down 4.11% and palladium down 4.62% [1] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices may continue to oscillate widely in the short term. In the future, supply in South Africa faces risks, while demand in various fields is expanding, and the "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] - The short - term palladium price may also oscillate widely. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Summary by Related Aspects Platinum - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram, down 4.11% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks will keep the price in a wide - range oscillation. Investors are advised to manage risks and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [1] - **Long - term Outlook**: South Africa, the main supplier, faces power supply and extreme weather risks. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] Palladium - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 478.6 yuan/gram, down 4.62% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: The price may oscillate widely. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [2] - **Long - term Outlook**: Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Commodity Index (January 15, 2026) - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2439.09, down 0.39%; the commodity 20 index was 2791.36, down 0.63%; the industrial products index was 2354.54, down 0.35% [47] Non - ferrous Metals Index (January 15, 2026) - The index value was 2854.45, with a daily increase of 0.09%, a 5 - day increase of 2.13%, a 1 - month increase of 12.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.27% [49]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/01/16 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut the interest rates of structural mon ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 货币政策结构性降息，大类资产震荡调整 ——中信期货晨报20260116 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-01-15 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 炉深300期货 | 4746.6 | 0. 09 | 0.06 | 3. 19 | 3. 19 | 3. 19 | | | 上证50期货 | 3108 | -0.36 | -0. 85 | 2.74 | 2.74 | 2. 74 | | | 中证500期货 | 8206. 8 | 0. 03 | 2.1 | 11. 46 | 11. 46 | 11. 46 | | | 中证1 ...