1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with base metals leading the gains. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend after the opening, but the slope will be slower than in January. The RMB is expected to continue to strengthen in the second quarter. Most varieties in the market are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 25, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4731.4, with a daily increase of 0.9%, a weekly increase of 2.26%, a monthly increase of 0.43%, a quarterly increase of 2.86%, and an annual increase of 2.86%. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different degrees of decline on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.6594 on February 25, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a weekly decline of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.56%, and an annual decline of 0.62%. The US dollar intermediate price decreased by 202 pips daily [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.05 bp on February 25, 2026, with a daily increase of 1 bp, a weekly decline of 3 bp, a monthly decline of 21 bp, and an annual decline of 13 bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 26, 2026, the defense and military industry had a daily increase of 1.62%, a weekly increase of 4.8%, a monthly increase of 6.07%, a quarterly increase of 10.92%, and an annual increase of 10.92%. The consumer services industry had a daily decline of 1.41%, a weekly decline of 5.6%, a monthly decline of 4.96%, a quarterly decline of 4.37%, and an annual decline of 4.37% [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 25, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at 65.57, with a daily decline of 0.09%, a weekly decline of 1.12%, a monthly decline of 0.26%, a quarterly increase of 14.21%, and an annual increase of 14.21%. COMEX gold was priced at 5183.7, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, a monthly increase of 5.63%, a quarterly increase of 19.66%, and an annual increase of 19.66% [8]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption performed well, while real - estate sales were at a seasonal low. The social financing at the beginning of January was stable, with strong government - sector financing and private - sector financing in line with expectations [16]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US economy showed a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. In February 2026, the US economic sentiment and consumer confidence weakened, and the private - sector expansion slowed down [16]. - **Major Asset Classes**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation and Trump's tariff policy may support the prices of gold and silver in the short - term. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, while the black - metal sector and the domestic bond market may continue to oscillate. The RMB is expected to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be oscillating and bullish [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials, such as copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish trend [17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt, are expected to oscillate [20]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, such as natural rubber, cotton, and sugar, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish or bearish trend [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Alumina - On February 26, the domestic bauxite price was 491 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/dry ton compared to the previous day [41]. - On February 26, the spot price index was 2,654 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [41]. Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 26, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the premium and discount was -175 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, on February 26, the futures inventory was 288,287 tons, an increase of 3,112 tons compared to the previous day [3]. - According to Mysteel, on February 26, the aluminum rod processing fee was 106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy - On February 26, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [4]. - On February 26, the ADC12 price was 23,200 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [4]. - According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, on February 26, the futures inventory was 66,174 tons, a decrease of 907 tons compared to the previous day [4].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals by CITIC Futures Research, dated February 27, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On February 26, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 2.00% to 589.5 yuan/gram, while the palladium main contract fell 2.27% to 446.55 yuan/gram [2] Group 3: Platinum Analysis Core View - The price of platinum is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the medium to long term due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro expectations [3] Main Logic - The US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs and Trump's attitude towards tariffs have raised market risk - aversion sentiment, strengthening the precious metals sector. The progress of US - Iran negotiations also affects market sentiment. In the long run, the US is in an interest - rate cut channel, and factors like the Fed's impaired independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order weaken the US dollar's credit, which is conducive to the release of platinum's long - term price elasticity [3] Group 4: Palladium Analysis Core View - The price of palladium is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the medium to long term, supported by short - term spot shortages and a better macro - environment [4] Main Logic - On the supply side, the US's anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Russian unforged palladium and Europe's consideration of new sanctions on Russian palladium have led to supply uncertainties and a tight spot market, supporting prices. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand situation tends to be loose, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations provide clear support for prices [4] Group 5: Index Performance Special Index - The commodity index was 2434.44, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index was 2790.14, up 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2314.11, down 0.02% [51] Sector Index (Non - ferrous Metals) - On February 26, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2719.10, with a daily increase of 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of 0.26%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.26%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.23% [53]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas tech giants' earnings reports ease AI concerns. A-share investment can focus on tech hotspots and allocate long positions in IM futures. However, the upside may be limited due to scattered mainlines [3][8]. - The options market trades on the medium - to long - term slow - rise expectation. It is recommended to use covered call strategies and consider long - term bull spread combinations [4][8]. - Before the Two Sessions, institutions are cautious, and the bond market declines. The short - term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [4][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded after hitting a low, closing flat in a V - shape. Trading concentrated on tech hotspots. Overseas tech giants' earnings reports with improved gross margins and accelerated revenue growth boosted the AI industry chain. Lithium mining stocks strengthened due to export bans, while the film and real estate sectors declined. It is advisable to hold long positions in IM futures [3][8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market oscillated intraday yesterday. Small - and medium - cap stocks rose, while large - cap stocks fell. Option trading volume decreased and remained at a low level. Implied volatility continued to decline, and the trading strategy mainly focuses on medium - to long - term slow - rise. Covered call strategies are recommended [4][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures' main contracts continued to fall yesterday. The main reason was the increased policy uncertainty before the Two Sessions, leading institutions to take profits. The post - holiday allocation demand for medium - and long - term bonds weakened. The short - term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Different trading strategies are proposed for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curve [4][9]. 3.2 Derivatives Market Monitoring - No specific content provided for analysis in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of crude oil continued to be highly volatile due to the Iran - US peace talks, and the downstream of the chemical industry steadily resumed work. The chemical industry followed crude oil into a weak adjustment pattern, with olefins performing significantly weaker than aromatics. The downstream of the industrial chain is steadily resuming work, and the raw material start - up has little change overall. The spring maintenance generally starts from March to May. The report expects that crude oil will continue to have high volatility, and chemical prices will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The next round of Iran - US negotiations will be held in early March, and geopolitics dominates the short - term market. The supply of crude oil is in a loose pattern this year, and the Brent spread has weakened significantly. Currently, the oil price is in the stage of geopolitical premium fermentation dominated by the Iran - US situation. The short - term outlook is for a volatile market [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price fluctuates in a narrow range. The long - term supply of asphalt raw materials is abundant. The current market focuses on the progress of the Iran - US negotiations, and the asphalt cracking spread has decreased significantly. The high - profit may drive refineries to switch to alternative raw materials, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to be loose, which may drive the asphalt futures price down. The asphalt inventory is accumulating, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [9][10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price still has a relatively high geopolitical premium. The US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to surge in the long - term, putting pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short - term, the market still highly focuses on the progress of the Iran - US negotiations. Once an agreement is reached, it may have a greater negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The decline in fuel oil exports from Brazil, Kuwait, and Nigeria in February has alleviated the oversupply expectation of low - sulfur fuel oil. Although low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, its current valuation is low and it is expected to follow the changes in crude oil. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [13]. - **PX**: The Asian PX price is generally firm, but the domestic market sentiment is poor, and the PX futures price has declined. The maintenance of some devices has been implemented, and the market expectations have been realized. It is expected that the high - supply pressure of PX in March will be alleviated, and the demand support from downstream PTA devices is increasing. The short - term price of PX will fluctuate under the resonance of cost support and market sentiment, and the medium - term logic of buying on dips remains. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [15]. - **PTA**: Some PTA devices have restarted earlier than expected, and the spot profit is under pressure in the short - term. With the restart of some devices, the PTA load is expected to increase in the short - term, and the factory inventory has increased significantly. It is expected that the price will remain at a high level in the short - term. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [16][17]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price of pure benzene fluctuates. Before the festival, the downstream replenishment of pure benzene basically ended, and the trading became lighter. After the festival, pure benzene opened higher to make up for the increase. The fundamentals of pure benzene may be in a transition period, and the inventory pressure is still large, but it is expected to improve in Q1 compared with Q4. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [21]. - **Styrene**: Styrene fluctuates due to seasonal inventory accumulation and crude oil fluctuations. Before the festival, the supply - demand of styrene became more relaxed, and the price declined. After the festival, the styrene futures price increased to make up for the increase. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival, the restart of some devices, and the resumption of work of downstream enterprises. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rebounds limitedly due to supply - demand pressure, and the support at the bottom is increasing. The inventory pressure of ethylene glycol ports is relatively large, and the supply remains at a high level in the short - term, resulting in price pressure. In the medium - term, there is a weak improvement expectation in March and April, and the price has limited downward space. The short - term price will be in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [24][26]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The downstream orders of polyester staple fiber have not recovered, and the driving force is limited. The price of polyester raw materials has回调, and polyester staple fiber has followed the decline. The downstream yarn mills' load has increased rapidly, but the post - festival orders are still few, and the raw material procurement is mostly on the sidelines. The short - term price will follow the upstream and maintain a volatile trend, and the processing fee has stronger support at the bottom. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [27][28]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The driving force of polyester bottle chips is limited, and it follows passively. The price of upstream polyester raw materials has declined, and the price of polyester bottle chips has followed the weak fluctuation. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle chip market has improved. The short - term price is expected to continue to follow the raw material cost. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [29][30]. - **Methanol**: Overseas geopolitical disturbances continue, and methanol fluctuates widely. The price of methanol has declined weakly. The inventory of the inland market is increasing, and the coastal market is still under high - inventory pressure. The Iranian methanol devices are expected to resume production in March. The market sentiment is affected by the macro - situation, and the futures price is weak. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [31]. - **Urea**: There is a co - existence of demand support and price - guidance pressure, and urea fluctuates and consolidates. The supply and demand of urea have both increased. The daily production of the industry is stable at a high level, and the agricultural demand for spring plowing in some regions is supporting, and the industrial demand is expected to increase steadily. The spot price is close to the price - guidance upper limit, and the new orders are more cautious. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [32]. - **Plastic**: The downstream of plastic gradually resumes work after the festival, and it fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, and the commodity sentiment has improved after the festival. The inventory pressure in the middle of the plastic industry is not large, and the demand is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons. There is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [35]. - **PP**: There are slight disturbances in the propane end, and PP fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, and there are short - term disturbances in overseas propane, which indirectly boosts PP. The PDH profit of PP refineries is still under pressure, and the downstream is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons. The resumption of work progress needs to be observed. There is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [36]. - **PL**: The powder profit is still under pressure, and PL fluctuates. Enterprises generally maintain stable prices, and high - price goods are under pressure. The downstream users purchase on a need - to - buy basis, and the short - term powder profit is weak. The downstream factories are expected to resume work around the Lantern Festival. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [37]. - **PVC**: The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and PVC may fluctuate. Geopolitical factors affect the commodity market sentiment. The upstream of PVC will have spring maintenance, but the "rush for exports" will cool down, and the high inventory is difficult to reduce smoothly. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: The cost has decreased, and caustic soda is under cautious pressure. Geopolitical factors affect the commodity market sentiment. The high inventory still suppresses the market, and the short - term futures price is mainly priced by cost. The comprehensive cost of caustic soda has decreased. The medium - term outlook is for a volatile market [39]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., including the latest values and changes [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., along with their changes [42]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different varieties are presented, including the latest values and changes [43]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although there are headings for various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., there is no specific content provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall price of precious metals declined during the day, with silver's decline significantly greater than that of gold. The uncertainty of US tariff policies and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East continued to support precious metals, but the launch of the third round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations and the improvement of the US labor market led to a cautious market risk preference, causing precious metals to weaken during the session. In the short term, after the prices of gold and silver stabilize, they are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner, with slightly weakened short - term momentum and increased volatility. Key factors to watch include the results of the US - Iran Geneva nuclear negotiations, PPI data, next - week's non - farm payroll data, and Sino - US interactions [1]. - Gold is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. The uncertainty of US tariff policies, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and the US - Iran nuclear negotiations have increased market risk sensitivity. The improvement of the US labor market has suppressed the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The delay of Fed rate - cut expectations and the possibility of a US visit to China have put some pressure on the gold price. In the long - term, the supporting logic for gold's rise remains unchanged [2]. - After the price of silver stabilizes, it is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. The macro - driving factors of silver are consistent with those of gold. In addition to the factors mentioned above, attention should also be paid to the possible fermentation of the silver spot shortage in March. The silver inventory situation shows that there is still a risk of a silver spot shortage in March. In the long - term, the bullish support for silver prices remains strong [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Performance - During the day, the prices of precious metals declined overall, with silver's decline significantly greater than that of gold. The decline of silver at home and abroad exceeded 3%, and the decline of COMEX silver once exceeded 5%, hitting $86 per ounce. The decline of gold at home and abroad was less than 1% [1][2]. Influencing Factors - **Geopolitical and Policy Factors**: The uncertainty of US tariff policies and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East continued to support precious metals. The launch of the third round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations increased market risk sensitivity [1][2]. - **Labor Market Factors**: The initial and continued jobless claims data showed that the US labor market had improved marginally, which put pressure on the expectation of Fed rate cuts [1][2]. Key Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 21 was 212,000 (an increase of 4,000 from the previous value, lower than the expected 215,000). The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending February 14 was 1.833 million (lower than the expected and previous values) [2]. Market Outlook - **Gold**: In the short term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with slightly weakened short - term momentum. It needs more market certainty for guidance. In the long - term, the supporting logic for its rise remains unchanged [2]. - **Silver**: After the price stabilizes, it is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, with increased short - term volatility risk. In the long - term, the bullish support remains strong [2]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: Not detailed in the given content. - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2434.44, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index was 2790.14, up 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2314.11, down 0.02% [44]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 26, 2026, the precious metals index was 4498.44, with a daily increase of 0.85%, a 5 - day increase of 4.70%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.73%, and a year - to - date increase of 17.63% [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of steel are both weak, inventory is still accumulating, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand is average. The inventory pressure of iron ore remains, the resumption of coal mines after the Spring Festival will accelerate, the downstream replenishment willingness of coking coal is limited, and the supply - demand pressure of glass and soda ash remains. The prices of related varieties are under pressure. Affected by the news of South African manganese ore, the alloy futures market is strong, but it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure when the price rises to a high level [1] - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is still cautious. The futures market still has downward adjustment pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The supply side still has expectations of weather disturbances. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, but the pressure has been released after the rapid decline of the futures market. With the upcoming Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, there are still macro expectations. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand are both weak in the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and actual demand in the future [8] Carbon Element - Coke: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to continue to grow. As logistics and transportation gradually recover, the inventory accumulation of coking enterprises will be alleviated. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [11] - Coking coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of manganese ore prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15] - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental contradiction is not large, but there is no obvious upward driving force in the futures market. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and electricity costs, as well as the changes in the production start - up level of manufacturers [17] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair, the high inventory will always suppress the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] - Soda ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13] Other Information - The report also provides daily monitoring data of spot and futures indicators of black building materials varieties, including spot prices, basis, and futures market profits of various varieties [20] - The report shows the commodity index and plate index of CITIC Futures on February 26, 2026, including the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index, as well as their changes [102][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks. Overall, the market is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with different products showing different trends such as oscillation, upward or downward movement [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats are oscillating and falling. Palm oil exports are weak, dragging down the high - level of oils and fats. Soybean oil is affected by US biodiesel policy expectations and export demand, while rapeseed oil is supported by crude oil and US soybean oil [1][5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil oscillates, palm oil oscillates, and rapeseed oil oscillates. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [2][5]. 3.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The market's enthusiasm for chasing up is low, and the upward momentum of the market is weak. International factors include the progress of US biodiesel policy and the harvest of Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, the market's chasing - up sentiment is not high, and attention should be paid to the impact of South American soybean arrivals and state - reserve auctions [5]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillate. After the festival, the supply and demand of soybean and rapeseed meals are both weak, and capital fluctuations intensify [5]. 3.3. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Corn is in high - level consolidation. The upstream sales enthusiasm has increased slightly, and the downstream has a certain demand for replenishment. Attention should be paid to the game between farmers' sales rhythm and downstream replenishment rhythm, as well as the impact of imported grains [5][6]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the downstream replenishment rhythm and traders' delivery and inventory - building rhythms [5][6]. 3.4. Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are loose, and pig prices are oscillating at a low level. In the short term, the daily slaughter volume has increased, and in the long term, the pressure of over - supply will gradually weaken in the second half of 2026 [7]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the first half of the year, and the industry is advised to focus on hedging opportunities by short - selling at high prices. The pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [7][8]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market is in high - level oscillation. Although the price has a certain adjustment demand, the market sentiment is still bullish, and the fundamentals support the price to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the market maintains oscillation [10]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The inventory data is high, and the market is weak. The decline is due to weak butadiene trading and high inventory. However, the mid - term core logic of tight butadiene supply in the first half of 2026 remains unchanged [11]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but it needs adjustment in the short term and maintains a mid - term oscillating and strengthening trend [11]. 3.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The price has risen and then fallen, and it is advisable to take phased profits. Although there is a long - term upward drive, there is a lack of new upward momentum in the short term [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the long - term. It is recommended to take phased profits for previous long positions and maintain the idea of buying on dips in the long - term [12]. 3.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: India's production increase expectation is lowered, and sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term. The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have an oversupply [13][14]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of short - selling on rebounds [14]. 3.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot market has not returned to normal, and futures fluctuate with the financial atmosphere. The demand is expected to improve seasonally, but the supply quotation is flat, resulting in a situation of mixed bullish and bearish factors [15]. - **Outlook**: It maintains an oscillating trend within a range. It is recommended to focus on a long - position configuration at the low end of the range after the festival [15]. 3.10. Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - glue paper market is oscillating in a narrow range. Supply and demand changes are limited, and there is no clear upward or downward driving force [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be stable in the short term and oscillate within a range [16]. 3.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Factories resume work late, and the market is oscillating in the short term. The demand is weak, but the external quotation increase drives the bottom valuation up [17][18][19]. - **Outlook**: It maintains an oscillating trend within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of weakening after the peak season in the first - quarter [19].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/02/2 10-097 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 Read more English reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要 Abstract News: USTR to continue section 301 probe on China, may impose tariffs. (MOFCOM). ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's outlook is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The market is currently dominated by price - reduction expectations. In the spot market, MSK's price - reduction strategy in March is aggressive, while the decline of PA may be slower. OCEAN's freight rate has increased slightly by about $100/FEU compared to late February, and shipping companies are still trying to maintain prices on other routes. There are still risks of capacity recovery and shipping companies' price - increase announcements in the second half of March. The market is more optimistic about the freight rates from May to June than the near - term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the third round of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran on geopolitical sentiment and the new price - increase announcements from shipping companies and the fluctuation direction of the spot market [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Freight and Contract Volume - Price - MSK opened the freight rate for the second week of March, with a week - on - week reduction of $100/FEU. OOCL's online freight rate was also reduced, making it difficult to realize the increase in spot freight rates. ONE and YML may show a slow - decline trend in the first half of March. The 04 contract is dominated by off - season expectations, with a larger decline than the far - month contracts. The 04 main contract closed at 1236 points, down 5.13%, and the total open interest increased by more than 800 lots; the 05 contract closed at 1414.8 points, down 2.7%, with a total open interest of 395 lots; the 06 contract closed at 1621.1 points, down 3.3%, and the open interest increased slightly by 287 lots to 16,600 lots; the 07 contract was the highest among all contracts, closing at 1812 points, down 0.8% [1] Spot Freight Data - The comprehensive index of SCFI is 1251.5 points. The freight rate of the Nordic route is $1361/TEU, and the SCFIS of the Nordic route is 1573.51 points, down 2.1%. The freight rate of the Mediterranean route is $2177/TEU. The freight rate of the US West route is $1787/FEU, and the SCFIS of the US West route is 1112.01 points, down 1.7%. The freight rate of the US East route is $2524/FEU [9] Trade - Sino - US economic and trade relations have stabilized, and China's overall external environment has improved, which is an important background for the strengthening of the RMB. On February 26, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar appreciated to a maximum of 6.83605 during the session, an appreciation of more than 0.25% compared to the previous trading day. The IMF expects the US economic growth rate in 2026 to be 2.4%, consistent with the forecast in the January "World Economic Outlook" (WEO). The transmission of tariffs to US consumer prices may be lower than expected, leading to a more forward - moving inflation decline process and stronger economic activities, but trade uncertainties may drag down economic activities [2] Geopolitics - The Iranian negotiation team arrived at the diplomatic representative office of Oman in Geneva to participate in the third round of indirect negotiations with the US. The main members of the Iranian negotiation team include Foreign Minister Araqchi, Deputy Foreign Minister Ravanchi, and Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi [5]