1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - and medium - term, the supply - demand of tin ingots is expected to improve, and nickel and zinc have supply - related speculations. After a rapid price increase, profit - taking by funds led to an adjustment. However, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and supply - disruption concerns remains unchanged. Opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel at low prices should be watched for, and downstream industrial customers should pay attention to restocking opportunities during the adjustment. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply - disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist, leading to an expected tightening of supply - demand and a positive outlook for their prices [2]. - For each metal: - Copper: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and the copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly [3][7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and the alumina price is under pressure and expected to fluctuate [3][8]. - Aluminum: Inventory continues to accumulate, the aluminum price has declined, but in the short - term, it is expected to remain strong with fluctuations due to positive macro - expectations and a tight supply - demand outlook [3][12]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][14]. - Zinc: The LME has suspended the delivery of KZ and YP zinc, and the SHFE zinc price has broken through 25,000 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [3][17]. - Lead: Social inventory has significantly increased, limiting the upside potential of the lead price, and it is expected to fluctuate [3][22]. - Nickel: Policy expectations are in a game with the weak reality, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [3][23]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price continues to rise, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate [3][26]. - Tin: Supply remains in short - supply, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information analysis**: The US December CPI data was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0 dollars/ton. December SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 15 had a higher average premium than the previous trading day. A Chilean copper mine's union will start a strike, and the production of a mine in Ecuador has been postponed [7]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting the copper price. On the supply - demand side, copper - mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to supply constraints and increasing disruptions [8]. Alumina - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot prices of alumina in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, high - cost capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate due to an oversupply in reality and a low - range valuation [9]. Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SMM AOO average price and the premium/discount of aluminum decreased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars in major domestic consumption areas increased, and the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts also increased. The Q1 2026 aluminum - ingot premium in Japanese ports increased significantly, and the December 2025 export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the US interest - rate cut expectation and China's new - infrastructure policies are positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas new - project progress is uncertain. On the demand side, high prices have suppressed demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the price center is expected to rise [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the prices of some aluminum - alloy products decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. An Indonesian electrolytic - aluminum project has started production [14]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported by a tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is restricted by raw - material shortages and profit issues, and policies may also affect supply. The demand is mainly for刚需 in the short - term and is expected to improve marginally in the medium - term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse - receipt inventory has increased. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - and medium - term, the aluminum - alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to cost support and a tight supply - demand balance [16]. Zinc - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot premiums of 0 zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventory decreased slightly. The LME has suspended the further delivery of certain zinc brands since January 14, 2026 [19]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is relatively stable. The zinc - ore supply is tight, and the smelter's profit has declined. The domestic zinc - ingot supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. In the short - term, the zinc price may remain high and fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline [20]. - **Outlook**: In January, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate as the production has increased slightly, the demand is in the off - season, but exports and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector support the price [21]. Lead - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the price of waste electric - vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of SMM1 lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The LME has suspended the further delivery of a certain lead brand since January 14, 2026 [22]. - **Main logic**: The spot premium and the original - recycled lead price difference have increased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The supply has increased as some smelters have resumed production, and the demand is mixed, with a decline in electric - bicycle orders but an improvement in automobile - battery orders. Overall, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Outlook**: As the lead - ingot production recovers and the demand weakens marginally, but the waste - battery cost remains high, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. Nickel - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and the LME nickel inventory increased. An Indonesian nickel - mining company has fully resumed operations, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel - ore production quota in 2026. The SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [24]. - **Main logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure as domestic and Indonesian production remains high. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The Indonesian nickel - ore quota is uncertain, and its actual implementation needs to be monitored [25]. - **Outlook**: In January, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate as the fundamentals are not significantly improved, but the Indonesian policy may affect the supply - demand balance [25]. Stainless Steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 15, the spot price of stainless steel in Foshan had a certain discount compared to the futures contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [26]. - **Main logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the increase in nickel - iron price. The production in December decreased, and there may be a slight increase in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level [26]. - **Outlook**: In January, the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate as the production may increase slightly, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost is supported [26]. Tin - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [27]. - **Main logic**: The supply of tin is a major concern. Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are expected to limit production. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic situation and the growth of industries such as semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles. Overall, the tin price is expected to be strong [28]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain [28]. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial - product index of CITIC Futures all decreased. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.09% on the day, 2.13% in the past 5 days, 12.72% in the past month, and 6.27% since the beginning of the year [156][158].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the agricultural market is characterized by a mix of supply - and - demand factors, with different commodities showing various trends. Some commodities are expected to be bullish in the short - to - medium term, while others face downward pressure or are in a state of consolidation. The report suggests different investment strategies for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [1][2][7]. Summary by Commodity 1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Supply increases while demand weakens, and palm oil leads the decline in the oils and fats market. - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan and raises palm oil export taxes. In the domestic soybean market, 1.13 million tons of imported soybeans were auctioned on January 13th with a 100% transaction rate. For rapeseed oil, there are ongoing Sino - Canadian talks on rapeseed trade, and overseas rapeseed production is expected to be high in the long run. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate, while rapeseed oil will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to consider buying hedging after a correction and a long - palm oil short - rapeseed oil arbitrage strategy [1][6][7]. 2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Rapeseed meal's low points on the futures market continue to be refreshed, and soybean meal's support at previous lows needs attention. - **Logic**: Internationally, the January supply - demand report is bearish for US soybeans, but Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase. Domestically, the auction of soybeans by the State Reserve was successful, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is accumulating. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal futures will fluctuate, and rapeseed meal will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to customs inspection policies and the progress of China's soybean purchases [9][10]. 3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: As the Chinese New Year approaches, restocking boosts prices. - **Logic**: The corn market is in a tight - balance state, with farmers reluctant to sell, slow import of grains, and tight railway transportation. Downstream deep - processing enterprises are restocking. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term [12][13]. 4. Hogs - **Viewpoint**: Second - fattening occurs in the north, leading to a rise in northern hog prices and a decline in southern prices. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply pressure is small at the beginning of January, but there may be concentrated pre - holiday slaughter. In the long term, sow capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate. Near - term contracts may fluctuate weakly, while long - term contracts can be considered for long - positions at low prices with caution [14]. 5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It shows wide - range fluctuations, and the trend remains unchanged. - **Logic**: Rubber prices were slightly affected by the decline in commodities but did not break through the support level. The rise is mainly driven by capital rotation. The supply is increasing seasonally overseas, and the demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: It is considered bullish in the short term due to strong capital sentiment [16][18]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It slightly declines and maintains high - level fluctuations. - **Logic**: The mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged, based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The price of butadiene has been rising recently. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate strongly in the medium term, although there is short - term pressure [19][20]. 7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price corrects and continues to consolidate. - **Logic**: The long - term bullish drivers are the "tight - balance" in 2025/26 and the expected reduction in planting area in 2026. Currently, it is in an adjustment phase due to the exhaustion of short - term positive factors. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the long term. A strategy of buying at low prices during corrections is recommended [20][21]. 8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price fluctuates within a narrow range. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic market has increased supply. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long term. A strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [21]. 9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of hardwood pulp turns down, increasing fundamental concerns. - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation is in line with market expectations and seasonal patterns. There are both bullish factors (higher import costs) and bearish factors (difficult cost transfer and seasonal demand decline). - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. The bottom is supported by macro - atmosphere and import price increases, while the upside is limited by weak demand and high liquidity [22][23]. 10. Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates weakly. - **Logic**: The market is generally stable, with some production lines planning to resume production. There is inventory pressure on paper mills, and downstream orders are limited. The addition of futures warehouse receipts suppresses the upward space. - **Outlook**: It may face pressure in the second half of the month, and the risk of correction should be noted [24]. 11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors are digested, and logs fluctuate strongly. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are improving marginally, with a decrease in negative factors in the delivery process and a short - term supply shortage in the Jiangsu market. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate strongly in the short term. The 03 contract can be traded in the range of 760 - 810 yuan per cubic meter [25]. Commodity Index - On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was 2439.09, down 0.39%. The commodity 20 index was 2791.36, down 0.63%, and the industrial products index was 2354.54, down 0.35%. The agricultural product index was 941.54, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a 5 - day decline of 0.21%, a 1 - month increase of 2.22%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.91% [183][185].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, there is upward room for zinc ingot prices, and the overall base metal sector is strong. With the potential fermentation of the Fed's policy damage and weak - dollar expectations, it will provide support for zinc prices. However, in the medium - to - long term, global zinc production is still increasing, and the supply of zinc ingots at home and abroad is expected to be excessive in 2026. The short - term zinc price may fluctuate at a high level, and shorting should be cautious. The recommended price range is adjusted to 22,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The Shanghai zinc price has broken through 25,000 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc price has broken through $3,000/ton. The driving factors include: the long - opened Chinese zinc export window from early October to mid - December 2025, the slow recovery of domestic zinc ingot supply after the LME price settlement, the significant rise of other base metals attracting capital attention to zinc, and the LME's suspension of KZ and YP zinc交割 from April 14, 2026. In 2024, Korea Zinc and Young Poong's zinc production was 1.03 million tons and 0.21 million tons respectively, accounting for 9% of the global total. If the suspension is long - term and overseas zinc smelters have production problems in 2026, LME zinc inventory will not significantly recover. But the LME plans to limit members with large positions in near - month contracts, so the squeeze - out pressure on LME zinc is expected to be low [2] Fundamental Situation - Macro - wise, the Fed's policy and weak - dollar expectations are still fermenting, and the central economic work conference set a positive tone. Overall, the macro - expectation is stable. Supply - side, after the LME price settlement, the Shanghai - LME ratio has risen, the zinc concentrate import window has opened, the decline of imported zinc concentrate has slowed, and domestic zinc concentrate production has stabilized. Zinc smelters' raw material inventory and zinc concentrate port inventory are okay, so the decline in zinc ingot production may ease. The domestic zinc ingot export window has closed, but previously locked - price zinc ingots will still be exported, and it takes time for zinc concentrate imports to significantly increase. So, the domestic zinc ingot supply cannot be significantly loosened in the short term. Demand - side, with the arrival of the downstream consumption off - season, terminal demand remains weak, but some enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, so the decline in zinc ingot demand may not be obvious. In short, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still decreasing [3] Summary and Strategy - Short - term: Zinc prices may fluctuate at a high level, and shorting should be cautious. The price reference range is adjusted to 22,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy copper and aluminum and short zinc in far - month contracts, and close the cross - period and cross - market arbitrage positions when domestic zinc ingot exports basically end. - Long - term: After overseas zinc smelters increase production smoothly and the US dollar index stabilizes, the cross - market long - arbitrage strategy can be re - entered [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 9th of the current week in the US, commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels, mainly due to a 710,000 barrels per day increase in net crude oil imports. The weekly crude oil production estimate was lowered by 58,000 barrels per day, refinery utilization rates rose from 94.7% to 95.3%, and processing volumes increased by 49,000 barrels per day. Since refinery utilization rates remain relatively high, gasoline inventories have continued to grow rapidly and are already at a high level for the same period. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products has seasonally increased from a high level. The single - week data is still relatively bearish for gasoline crack spreads [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: +3.391 million barrels (previous value: - 3.832 million barrels) [6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: +745,000 barrels (previous value: +728,000 barrels) [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory change: +214,000 barrels (previous value: +245,000 barrels) [6] - US gasoline inventory change: +8.977 million barrels (previous value: +7.702 million barrels) [6] - US diesel inventory change: -29,000 barrels (previous value: -5.594 million barrels) [6] - US jet fuel inventory change: -892,000 barrels (previous value: +47,000 barrels) [6] - US fuel oil inventory change: +1.735 million barrels (previous value: -62,000 barrels) [6] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): +6.21 million barrels (previous value: +8.106 million barrels) [6] Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.753 million barrels per day (previous value: 13.811 million barrels per day) [6] - US refined oil apparent demand: 21.009 million barrels per day (previous value: 19.226 million barrels per day) [6] - US gasoline apparent demand: 8.304 million barrels per day (previous value: 8.17 million barrels per day) [6] - US diesel apparent demand: 4.096 million barrels per day (previous value: 3.195 million barrels per day) [6] Import and Export and Processing Data - US crude oil imports: 7.092 million barrels per day (previous value: 6.339 million barrels per day) [6] - US crude oil exports: 4.306 million barrels per day (previous value: 4.263 million barrels per day) [6] - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 16.958 million barrels per day (previous value: 16.909 million barrels per day) [6] - US refinery utilization rate: 95.3% (previous value: 94.7%) [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks from the Iran situation continue to support crude oil prices, and the chemical sector should be viewed with a volatile mindset [2][3][4]. - The chemical sector is currently boosted by the strong trends of coal and oil prices, with limited room for significant adjustments. Even over - valued varieties are likely to trade in a volatile range. Spring maintenance by refineries and chemical enterprises will limit the supply increase, and the positive supply - demand outlook for PX and PTA in the first half of the year still supports futures prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors are continuously disturbing, and attention should be paid to risks from Iran. The supply pressure persists, but geopolitical premiums may fluctuate, so it is expected to trade in a volatile range [4][9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is in an over - valued range and trading in a volatile manner. In the long - term, the valuation is expected to decline [4][10][11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The situation between the US and Iran has escalated, leading to a sharp rise in high - sulfur fuel oil. In the long - term, the expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on prices, but short - term support comes from the US - Iran conflict [4][10][12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is rising in a volatile manner. Although it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy, its current low valuation means it will follow crude oil price movements [4][12]. - **Methanol**: The expectation of inventory reduction in coastal areas has been realized, but there is still uncertainty in the overseas macro - environment. Methanol is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [4][28]. - **Urea**: Regional top - dressing demand provides support, and urea is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. The market may have a narrow upward exploration in the short - term [4][29][30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There are again differences between bulls and bears, and the price lacks directional guidance. It is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with limited upside due to long - term inventory accumulation pressure [4][22][23]. - **PX**: There is an expectation of a valuation correction. The price is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with support around 7000 - 7100 [4][14]. - **PTA**: The market lacks new drivers, but cost support remains. It is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with support around 5000 - 5100 [4][15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Demand lacks sustainability, and it is trading in a range. The price will follow the movement of upstream products, with processing fees under some pressure [4][24][25]. - **Bottle Chip**: Supply continues to be compressed, and there is an expectation of processing fee repair. The absolute price will follow raw materials, and the long PR03 short TA03 position can be held [4][26][27]. - **Propylene**: Supply has tightened, and PL is expected to have a cautious rebound [4]. - **PP**: The number of maintenance operations has slightly decreased, and the upside space for PP is limited [4][34]. - **Plastic**: Boosted by raw materials and the macro - environment, plastic is slightly strengthening [4][33]. - **Styrene**: Tight supply - demand and a good commodity market atmosphere have led to a recent strong and volatile trend. It is expected to remain strong and volatile in the short - term if there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil [4][20][21]. - **PVC**: Short - term "rush - to - export" activities support the price. In the long - term, the market is under pressure due to concerns about the sustainability of export orders and high inventory [4][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: With a low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda is trading weakly [4][36][37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data shows the latest values and changes in inter - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.73 with a change of 0.01 [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties is provided. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 68 with a change of - 8, and the number of warehouse receipts is 46450 [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The latest values and changes in inter - variety spreads are presented, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 363 with a change of - 199 [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific summarized data was provided in the content, but it involves monitoring the basis and spreads of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. 3.3 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on January 14, 2026 [282]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on January 14, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.87%, a 5 - day increase of 5.90%, a 1 - month increase of 3.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.87% [283].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-15 展望：彭博商品指数权重调整的阶段性扰动已消化，金银在流动性宽 松远期预期、顺周期交易与资源安全忧虑共振下，整体维持震荡偏强 格局。黄金中枢有望继续上移，白银高波动状态或延续，需警惕波动 放大背景下的阶段性回撤风险。 多要素共振，⽩银突破90美元关⼝ 降息预期、美联储独⽴性扰动与地缘⻛险共同作⽤，贵⾦属避险主线进⼀ 步强化。⻩⾦维持⾼位震荡、以配置属性为主；⽩银在⾦融属性回归与流 动性偏紧共振下率先放量，价格弹性显著释放，突破90美元关⼝。 重点资讯： 1）据读卖新闻周三报导，日本首相高市早苗正在考虑在下周解散众 议院后，于2月8日进行众议院改选。 2）特朗普威胁要对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征25%关税。 3）美国12月CPI年率持平于2.7%，核心CPI年率持平于2.6%；当月CPI 月环比0.31%；核心CPI月环比0.24%，低于市场预期（核心预期0. 30%）。 价格逻辑： 黄金：实际利率下行与信用扰动支撑高位运行。美国通胀数据弱于预 期，市场对年内进一步降息的定价持续强化，实际利率下行对无息资 产形成支撑 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-01-15 股市冲⾼回落，债市偏强震荡 股指期货：提⾼融资保证⾦⽐例，资⾦集中⾼低切换 股指期权：隐波回落为主，偏度多数上升 国债期货：股债跷跷板上演 风险因子：1）资金情绪过热；2）期权市场流动性不及预期；3）政 策超预期；4）股市上涨超预期；5）货币不及预期。 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 研究员: 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 投资咨询号:Z0016853 程小庆 从业资格号:F3083989 投资咨询号:Z0018635 股指期货方面，周三沪指冲高回落，盘中续创新高，成交额环比冲量 新高。日内异动出现在午间，沪深北交易所通知调整融资保证金比例，将 投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%，自 2026年1月19日起施行。该调整指向控杠杆、防波动、降潜在融资规模， 催化午后加速止盈，有三大特征：1）前期领涨的商业航天、脑机接口等 概念出现回调；2）股指期货集中增仓，对应贴水快速走阔；3）融资更集 中的小盘股弱于中盘股，石油石化、消费零售、家电等行业在午后相对抗 跌。由于回调偏资金层面，而两会前博 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "sideways" for the black building materials industry [6] Core View of the Report - The market is in a game between reality and expectation, with prices mainly moving sideways. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, and the spot price of coke has started to rise. However, coal mines are resuming production in January, and Mongolian coal imports have rebounded to a high level, so there is still high supply pressure, and the futures prices are expected to move sideways. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory limits the upside space. In the off - season, demand is seasonally weak. As steel mills gradually resume production, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, and fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating, suppressing the valuation of the steel futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory is continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of disturbances on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified, and it is expected to move sideways in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills have relatively high inventory, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the spot price is expected to move sideways [2]. 2. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [3]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [3]. 3. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the pressure of upstream inventory reduction is relatively large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of disturbances in supply, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to move sideways weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in excess. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity removal [3]. 5. Specific Varieties Analysis - Steel: The spot market trading is average. With the end of some steel mill overhauls, iron and steel production continues to increase. In the off - season, demand is seasonally weak, and the overall steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating. But with the resumption of steel mills and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures price will move in a wide sideways range [8]. - Iron ore: The spot price is moving sideways. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals have increased. The fundamentals on both the supply and demand sides still need to be verified, and it is expected to move sideways in the short term [8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the spot price is expected to move sideways [9]. - Coke: The cost side of coke has strong support, and the spot price has started to rise. The demand for coke is well - supported by the resumption of steel mills, and the inventory of steel mills is steadily increasing. The supply - demand structure is expected to tighten, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [12]. - Coking coal: The supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [12]. - Glass: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply and demand are in excess. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to move sideways weakly [13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are in excess. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify, and the price center will decline [16]. - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. The futures price is expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level in the medium term [16]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils: Soybean oil and palm oil are rated as "sideways", while rapeseed oil is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [7]. - Protein meals: Soybean meal is rated as "sideways", and rapeseed meal is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [9]. - Corn and starch: Rated as "sideways" [11]. - Hogs: Rated as "sideways" [13]. - Natural rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [15]. - Synthetic rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [18]. - Cotton: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [19]. - Sugar: Rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [20]. - Pulp: Rated as "sideways" [21]. - Offset paper: Rated as "sideways" [22]. - Logs: Rated as "sideways" [24]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different commodities having their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. For example, in the hog market, short - term supply pressure remains, but long - term supply may gradually ease; in the oil market, although there are some policy and supply - demand changes, the overall supply is relatively abundant [14][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views 3.1.1. Hogs - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is small in early January, but some February hogs may be sold in advance in mid - to - late January. Medium - term supply will be excessive until April 2026. Long - term supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand declines after New Year's Day, and the average weight of hogs decreases but is still higher than the same period last year. - **Outlook**: The near - term price is expected to be in a weak sideways range, while the far - term price may rise in the second half of 2026, but currently, the production cut is insufficient, so far - term positions should be cautiously taken on dips [14]. 3.1.2. Oils - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan, and raises the export tax on palm oil. The domestic soybean market has active auctions, and the supply of rapeseed oil may change due to trade relations. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil are sideways, and rapeseed oil is sideways with a downward bias. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread trading [7]. 3.1.3. Protein Meals - **Logic**: International factors such as the USDA's report, Brazilian soybean production, and the probability of El Niño affect the market. Domestically, soybean auctions are active, and the supply and demand of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by trade and consumption. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal are sideways, and rapeseed meal is sideways with a downward bias [9]. 3.1.4. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The increase in supply due to smooth selling restricts price increases. However, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, the time required for imported grains, and downstream replenishment demand support prices. - **Outlook**: Sideways in the short - term [12]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market has a bullish atmosphere, mainly driven by macro factors. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term [17]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price trend is bullish, mainly due to the expected improvement in the butadiene market and the possible impact of policies on supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the medium - term [19]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Logic**: The long - term driving factors are the expected "tight balance" in the 2025/26 season and the possible reduction in planting area in 2026. The short - term adjustment space is limited. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the long - term [19]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with most major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [20]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include rising import costs and high downstream paper production. Bearish factors include difficult cost transfer, seasonal demand decline, and sufficient supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways [21]. 3.1.10. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The market is affected by factors such as new warehouse receipts, industry profitability, supply and demand, and downstream consumption. - **Outlook**: There may be pressure in the late period, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Logic**: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved in January - February. The price has support due to the inverted price difference, and there are some game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: Sideways within a range [24]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring categories including oils and fats, corn and starch, hogs, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, pulp and offset paper, logs, etc., but specific data details are not provided in the content [25][57][75]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a certain increase, with a daily increase of 0.20%, a 5 - day increase of 0.44%, a 1 - month increase of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.29% [183][184].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US economic data shows a continued slowdown, with concerns about the Fed's independence increasing. Key events such as the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs, US CPI data, new Fed chair nomination, and Q4 GDP data should be closely monitored [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve moderately, with a focus on the investment side. Policies are being implemented, and the central bank is increasing liquidity through a 300 - billion - yuan net injection of 6 - month repos [7]. - Asset views: Recommend long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and gold on a monthly basis. Treat silver as a short - term standard allocation and consider overweighting it after volatility stabilizes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary 3.1.1 Index Futures and Related Financial Instruments - Stock index futures: CSI 300 futures closed at 4740 with a daily decline of 0.44%, SSE 50 futures at 3114 with a daily decline of 0.57%, CSI 500 futures at 8197.8 with a daily increase of 0.66%, and CSI 1000 futures at 8156 with a daily increase of 0.09% [2]. - Bond futures: 2 - year bond futures closed at 102.334 with no daily change, 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily increase of 0.04%, 10 - year at 107.93 with a daily increase of 0.07%, and 30 - year at 111.27 with a daily decline of 0.03% [2]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was at 99.1842 with a daily increase of 0.29%, and the US dollar mid - price was 6.9777 with a 46 - pip increase [2]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5668% with a 1.94 - bp increase, the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.8494% with a 0.25 - bp decrease, and the 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.18% with a 1 - bp decrease [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Indexes - Computer, comprehensive finance, and media industries showed significant monthly increases of 17.81%, 6.64%, and 25.84% respectively, while banking and real estate industries had monthly decreases of 2.68% and 2.91% respectively [4]. 3.1.3 Domestic Commodities - Precious metals: Gold had a daily increase of 1.29% and a monthly increase of 6.51%, silver had a daily increase of 1.53% and a monthly increase of 2.54% [5]. - Energy and chemicals: Fuel oil had a daily increase of 5.1%, low - sulfur fuel oil had a daily increase of 6.15%, and crude oil had a daily increase of 0.38% [5]. - Non - ferrous metals: Stainless steel had a daily increase of 0.93%, tin had a daily increase of 8.84% [5]. 3.1.4 Overseas Commodities - Crude oil: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 61.1 with a daily increase of 2.69%, and ICE Brent crude oil was at 65.46 with a daily increase of 2.49% [6]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold was at 4594.4 with a daily decline of 0.44%, and COMEX silver was at 86.86 with a daily increase of 2.08% [6]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans were at 1039 with a daily decline of 0.95%, and CBOT corn was at 420.25 with a daily decline of 0.3% [6]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Views 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upward, awaiting incremental funds. Stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to fluctuate, with long - end sentiment remaining weak [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Both gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upward, influenced by factors such as US fundamentals, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with attention on 2026 shipping company resumption plans, year - end long - term contract freight rates, and pre - Spring Festival cargo volume [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products, iron ore, and other related products are expected to fluctuate, with attention on factors such as special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron ore production and transportation [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper, aluminum, tin, and other non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each metal, such as supply disruptions and policy changes [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with geopolitical factors and raw material prices being important influencing factors. Asphalt is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Some agricultural products such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and cotton are expected to fluctuate upward, while sugar is expected to fluctuate downward [11].