投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-10 柴油裂差近期⼤幅⾛弱，聚烯烃等诸多 品种创年内新低 原油期货价格周一下跌2%后，略略企稳，市场关注三大能源机构IE A、EIA和OPEC本周即将颁布的月度报告。受制裁原油销路不畅以及炼油厂 遭乌克兰无人机袭击等因素影响，俄罗斯11月原油产量远低于其在OPEC+ 框架下的配额，日产量较配额值低10余万桶。随着美国炼厂开工率持续攀 升，成品油季节性累库，成品油裂解价差走弱，亚洲一些简单型炼厂已接 近亏损。俄乌和平谈判是近期交易的重心，如果迟迟没有定论，油价仍将 延续震荡整理态势。 板块逻辑： 周二化工品价格大幅下挫，EG、PVC、PP和PE均跌至年度低点，供给 本身的压力以及原料走弱，是这些化工品下跌的主要原因。即使当前聚烯 烃全线亏损，两品种的日产量仍较去年同期有15%以上的增量，产业尚未 减产。周二因苯乙烯下游ABS亏损严重，卓创报道后期可能会有ABS企业卖 原料而停产ABS的举动；叠加纯苯持续走高的库存，苯乙烯开启下跌。急 跌之后期价可能重回震荡，但向上的动力尚未看到。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a mid - term outlook of "sideways" for the entire black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [7][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the overseas interest - rate cut rhythm. The profitability of steel mills has improved recently, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the later period. The fundamentals are still under pressure after entering the off - season, and the steel futures market is running weakly. There is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, and there is an expectation of an increase in Mongolian coal imports. The iron ore and coking coal markets were weak during the day session and showed signs of stabilization at night. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. - Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are not good. Without any signals beyond expectations from the Politburo meeting, it is expected that the sector will still face downward adjustment pressure in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are conducting annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, with Australian shipments rebounding, Brazilian shipments rising and then falling, and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly. The arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are limited. After the spot price has fallen, its cost - effectiveness has recovered. The profits of electric arc furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported. It is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and there is a strong expectation of further price cuts. However, there is still an expectation of winter restocking for raw materials in mid - to late December, and the fundamentals still provide support. Currently, the futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient driving force for a further significant decline. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal. It will take time to reverse the pessimistic sentiment in the coking coal market. The downstream winter restocking that will start in mid - to late December may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment. Based on the expectation that the weakening of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [2]. 3.3 Alloys - The firm cost supports the price, but the market supply - demand is in a loose state, the cost transfer is not smooth, and there is insufficient driving force for the futures price to rise. It is expected that the ferrosilicon manganese futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level. The high - level cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market has weak supply and demand, and there are still difficulties in destocking. Caution should be exercised regarding the upward space of the futures price. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The soda ash industry price is approaching the cost, and the bottom support is relatively obvious. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased. Although the overall supply - demand is still in surplus, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][12]. 3.5 Specific Products 3.5.1 Steel - The macro support is limited, and the futures market continues to be weak. The spot market transactions are generally weak. Near the end of the year, steel mill maintenance has increased, iron and steel production has declined from a high level, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. It is expected that the steel production will not decline significantly in the later period, and the futures market will run weakly [7]. 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The market sentiment is average, and the price fluctuates. The overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals have decreased significantly this period. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline seasonally, and the short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrivals have increased slightly, and the price fluctuates. The supply has increased, and the demand from electric arc furnaces and blast furnaces has changed. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased slightly. The scrap steel fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate [9]. 3.5.4 Coke - The futures market has stabilized at a low level, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the spot market. The supply is affected by raw material prices and environmental protection, and the demand has declined seasonally. The inventory has slightly accumulated. The cost support has weakened, but there is an expectation of winter restocking. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal [10]. 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The auction transactions have improved slightly, and the futures market is still running weakly. The domestic supply is at a low level, and the imports have recovered. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. The pessimistic sentiment needs time to reverse, and the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [11]. 3.5.6 Glass - The futures and spot transactions have improved, but the spot market is still weak. The supply is expected to decline in the long run but is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the high inventory of middle - stream enterprises suppresses the valuation. If there is no further cold - repair, the price may have a downward pressure [12]. 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The warehouse receipts are still increasing, and the price fluctuates at a low level. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The industry is in the bottom - clearing stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long run [12][14]. 3.5.8 Ferrosilicon Manganese - The cost price is firm, and the decline of the futures price is limited. The cost support is strong, the demand from steel mills is weak in the off - season, and the supply is affected by production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [14]. 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The cost reduction space is limited, and the futures price runs at a low level. The cost is at a high level, the demand from steel mills and metal magnesium is weak, and the supply has decreased slightly. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of silicon material storage promotion is rising, and polysilicon leads the rise of new energy metals. In the short - to - medium term, the adjustment of lithium ore production policy in Nigeria last weekend supports the price of lithium carbonate, and polysilicon price was once under pressure due to the increase in registered brands but is supported by the rising expectation of silicon material storage policy. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon with a possible rise in price center; the lithium ore production capacity is still increasing, but the demand expectation is also rising, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing, and the annual supply - demand inflection point of lithium carbonate may appear earlier [1]. - For industrial silicon, the cost support weakens and the silicon price falls. For polysilicon, the storage expectation rises again, and the price continues to be highly volatile. For lithium carbonate, the slowdown in the retail growth of new energy vehicles and the off - season expectation may suppress the short - term price [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 (Market Views) 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Cost support weakens, and silicon price falls. The price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, and 421 is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a slight decline. The domestic inventory is 454,300 tons, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. The domestic monthly output in November 2025 is 402,000 tons, an 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative production from January to November is 3.871 million tons, a 15.3% year - on - year decrease. The export in October is 45,073 tons, a 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export from January to October 2025 is 607,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in October 2025 is 12.6GW, a 30.43% month - on - month increase and 38.3% year - on - year decrease [5]. - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline in coal prices weakens the cost support. In December, industrial silicon production may still decline. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak. The inventory accumulation trend continues, and the fundamentals are weak. - **Outlook**: The price shows a weakening trend in oscillation [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The storage expectation rises again, and the price continues to be highly volatile. The成交 price of N - type re - feed material is in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 2,810 lots, unchanged. The export volume in October is about 1,547.8 tons, a 58% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to October 2025 is 20,215 tons, a 33% year - on - year decrease. The import volume in October is about 1,446 tons, a 39.1% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative import from January to October 2025 is 16,123 tons, a 52.26% year - on - year decrease. The new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October 2025 is 252.87GW, a 39.5% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Main Logic**: The storage expectation of the polysilicon platform is rising, and the price is highly volatile. The supply in the southwest region is decreasing due to the dry season, and the demand is also weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Outlook**: The price fluctuates widely [7][9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The slowdown in the retail growth of new energy vehicles and the off - season expectation may suppress the short - term price. On December 9, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.15% to 92,800 yuan/ton; the total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 30,399 lots to 1,023,470 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) remained unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 200 lots to 12,920 lots [9]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand, and the inventory is still being depleted in December. The resumption of production at the Jiuxiawo mine may cause price fluctuations. If the Jiuxiawo mine resumes production, the supply may turn loose in late December. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [9][10][11]. 3.2行情监测 (Market Monitoring) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No specific content provided. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No specific content provided. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No specific content provided. 3.3中信期货商品指数 (CITIC Futures Commodity Index) - On December 9, 2025, the comprehensive index is 2,242.53, a 1.08% decrease; the commodity 20 index is 2,560.81, a 1.08% decrease; the industrial product index is 2,185.44, a 1.38% decrease. The new energy commodity index on December 9, 2025, is 434.41, with a daily decrease of 1.47%, a 5 - day decrease of 3.05%, a 1 - month increase of 1.97%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.34% [53][55].

摘要 Abstract Macro News: Li Qiang holds the "1+10" Dialogue with heads of major international economic organizations. Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/10 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationals ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-10 玉米现货震荡，盘面持续回落 油脂：昨日继续震荡偏弱，关注MPOB报告 蛋白粕：双粕市场延续弱势 玉米/淀粉：现货震荡，盘面持续回落 生猪：疫情隐忧，盘面反弹 天然橡胶：横盘震荡趋势未改 合成橡胶：盘面维持震荡格局 棉花：短期突破存阻力 白糖：下方支撑较强，糖价小幅反弹 纸浆：触及压力位后回落，宽幅震荡格局维持 双胶纸：需求乏力，延续弱势 原木：上行乏力，窄幅震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 玉米观点：现货震荡，盘面持续回落 逻辑：今国内玉米价格走势分化，东北、华北深加工以稳为主，局部小幅 涨跌；港口普遍跟随期货继续回落。东北深加工玉米收购价以稳为主，部 分企业较昨日小幅调整（-10）-10元/吨，到货量小幅增加。上周五夜盘 起，因市场传出调节性储备拍卖等相关消息，叠加盘面涨至高位整数关 卡，引起市场情绪转向，盘面迎来下跌。受盘面情绪影响，东北方面，基 层贸易商与烘干塔获利出货意愿增强，东北粮农惜售情绪或小幅降温，致 使市场流通粮源阶段性增加，售粮进程预计小幅加速。但考虑用粮企业 ...

成本支撑削弱,工业硅价格快速回落 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 风险提示 风险因素:北方天气污染抗动;煤炭价格变动;供应端超预期复产。 研究员: | 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 | 投资咨询号:Z0016667 | | --- | --- | | 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 | 投资咨询号:Z0021455 | | 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 | 投资咨询号:Z0022534 | | 张 远 从业资格号:F03147334 | 投资咨询号:Z0022750 | 最新动态及原因 12月9日，工业持期货大幅回落，主力合约脱磊3.47%至8340元吨，跌破前期支撑位。价格下行主要流于工业時自身供需偏弱以及成本支撑减弱的双重影响：一方面，12月工业砖型终累库倍 局，多晶硅枯水蜘成产及有机硅城产挺价，导致工业硅霜求持续转弱；另一方面，焦那企业体中能贸易商原料采购度较、上游煤矿库存加速累积，推动煤炭价格大幅下跌。工业硅作为高耗能产 品，对煤炭依赖明显 -- 既直接消耗碳质还原剂，又通过火电电价间接传导成本。煤价回落削弱了成本支撑，加速了工业硅价格下行。 基本面情况 基本面来看，供应 ...

2026年政策延续偏松,但重视"跨周期"及"提质增效" 12月8日，新华社发布政治局会议通稿。通稿提及"宏观政策更加积极有为"，"继续实施更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策",表明2026年整体基调延续积极,不过细节表述也有变化: 一是,经济工作表述新增"提质增效"。 图说金融(20251209) : 二是,提及"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度",政策可能兼顾短期及中长期。 由此,我们对2026年财政及货币政策看法是: 固定收益组 程小庆 邮箱: chengxiaoging@citicsf.com 从业资格号: F3083989 投资咨询号:Z0018635 从业资格号:F03105230 投资咨询号:Z0021341 固定收益组 张 陆 邮箱: zhanglu2@citicsf.com 固定收益组 甘 青 邮箱: ganqing@citicsf.com 从业资格号:F03124127 投资咨询号:Z0023461 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为 关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股市仍需等待，债市⻓端情绪低迷 股指期货：双重因素提振市场，但持续进攻仍需等待 股指期权：期权备兑增厚 国债期货：国债⻓端情绪持续低迷 股指期货方面，双重因素提振市场，但持续进攻仍需等待。周一沪指 高开回升，重回3900点上方，TMT、券商领涨。日内乐观情绪受到两重因 素提振：一是上周五金监总局下调保险公司投资沪深300、科创板等标的 的风险因子，释放大盘股中期潜在增量资金；二是午后发布12月政治局会 议公告，定调积极有为，紧抓质效落实，结构性方向关注内需和科技创 新，政策偏暖支持、稳定发力，强化股市中期稳健上行趋势。同时也需注 意，"春躁"进攻时点仍需等待，年末资金风险尚未完全释放，一是大规 模限售解禁集中，二是股市整体缩量，三是下旬日本央行即将加息，市场 担忧日元套息交易平仓影响权益产品流动性。从历年春躁经验来看，元旦 之后机会的持续性更强，操作上，我们看长做多，短期关注涨价链及高股 息。 股指期权方面，期权备兑增厚。昨日权益市场放量上涨，沪指单日收 涨0.54%，科创50指数涨幅1.86%。期权方面，由于上周五期权市场流动性 已于周内放量提升，期权交投热情 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-09 宏观⽀撑有限，盘⾯延续弱势 中央政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，未有超预期信号释放。近期钢⼚盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢 材产量难以⼤幅下降，基本⾯在进⼊淡季之后仍有压⼒，钢材盘⾯弱 势运⾏。铁⽔仍有季节性⾛弱预期，蒙煤进⼝仍有增加预期，铁矿、 煤焦盘⾯表现偏弱，玻纯供需过剩继续压制盘⾯价格。 中央政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币 政策，未有超预期信号释放。近期钢厂盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢 材产量难以大幅下降，基本面在进入淡季之后仍有压力，钢材盘面弱 势运行。铁水仍有季节性走弱预期，蒙煤进口仍有增加预期，铁矿、 煤焦盘面表现偏弱，玻纯供需过剩继续压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水下降明显，下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检 修，但钢厂盈利率略有好转，补库需求释放仍偏慢。海外矿山发运环 比略增，澳洲发运回升，巴西发运冲高回落，非主流发运环比大幅增 加，本期到港环比减量明显。但港口库存环比继续累积，钢厂库存环 比增加，整体仍有累库压力。废钢基本面矛盾有限，现货 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/09 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee was held. Fut ...