1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-11 静待消费跟上，基本金属震荡整固 有⾊观点：静待消费跟上，基本⾦属震荡整固 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资者对美联储降息预期较为乐观，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端 延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略 偏弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1- 2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需改善放缓，但预期偏紧。整体来 看，中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧继续支撑价格，但高价对消 费抑制将限制进一步走高，基本金属转为震荡整固，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低 吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰 动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应存收缩预期，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价⽌跌企稳。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 油脂：MPOB报告偏利空，关注下方技术支撑有效性 蛋白粕：低价吸引买盘，关注前低支撑力度 玉米/淀粉：现货上量价格承压，盘面震荡 生猪：存栏充裕，生猪盘面回落 天然橡胶：地缘消息炒作，持续性存疑 合成橡胶：盘面延续震荡格局 棉花：近月偏强，但上方阻力较大 白糖：短期低位震荡 纸浆：期货持续回落，维持震荡判断 双胶纸：需求预期偏差，双胶纸走弱 原木：仓单压力，原木走弱 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-11 MPOB报告偏利空，油脂关注下方技术支 撑有效性 油脂观点：MPOB报告偏利空，关注下方技术支撑有效性 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。中信期货不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内 容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关性进行比较论证，列举解释期货品种 相关特性及潜在风险，不涉及对其行业或上市公司的相关推荐，不构成对任何主体进行或不进行某项行为的建议或意见 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-12-11 供应扰动担忧发酵，多晶硅和碳酸锂交 替领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：供应扰动担忧发酵，多晶硅和碳酸锂交替领涨新能源⾦ 属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，供需延续偏紧格局；工业硅和多晶硅供 需趋松。中短期来看，上周末尼日利亚调整锂矿生产政策，供应忧虑 支撑碳酸锂价格，多晶硅受到注册品牌增多压力一度回落，但硅料收 储政策推进预期升温，这对硅料价格有支撑，整体上，多晶硅和碳酸 锂交替领涨新能源金属。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多 晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也 在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂长期供需走向需要重新 审视，年度供需拐点可能提前出现。 ⼯业硅观点：成本⽀撑减弱，硅价持续回落。 多晶硅观点：收储预期再度升温，多晶硅延续⾼波动。 碳酸锂观点：情绪反复，锂价波动加⼤。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 白帅 从业 ...

CITIC Futures 白银再度拉涨,月内趋势维持震荡向上 研究员 朱善颖 从业资格号:F03138401 投资咨询号:Z0021426 张皓云 从业资格号:F03114820 投资咨询号: Z0022427 重要提示: 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的现点和信息仅作参考之用, 不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相 关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 免责声明．除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司（以下简称"中信期货》拥有本报告的版权/或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信 期货对于本报告所载的信息、观点以及数据的准确性、可靠性、时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或稳含的保证。本报告并不构成中信期货给予的任何私人咨询建议。 中信期货研究所 宏观研究组 【贵金属】异动点评 12月10日白银再度大幅拉涨,截至国内收盘,沪银涨幅5.44%,沪金震荡偏强,日内涨幅0.26%。 挤仓交易叠加美联储独立性风险,白银上涨弹性放大。我们在11月30日策略专题《新一轮上涨启动,白银弹性释放》中提出,金 银的新一轮上涨行情已经启动,白银有望迎来更大弹性。原因主要在于 ...

GEMINI: HPL-SPOT12月第三周NE2/AE1运价下调至2235美元/FEU;MSK昨开第四周价格位于2300美元/FEU今日持平。 0CEAN: CMA12月上半月运价回落至2345美元/FEU,下调300美元,与000L12月上半月2880美元/FEU持平。下半月GMA、00CL分别位 于2745美元/FEU、2530-2630美元/FEU,线下价格位于2450-2600美元/FEU。 PA&MSC: YML下午更新12月21-31日运价位于1575美元/TEU、2650美元/FEU, 环比上周宣涨价格(1675美元/TEU、2850美元/FEU) 下调200美元/FEU,但环比12月上半月价格（1250美元/TEU、2000美元/FEU）上涨650美元。 地缘方面,据以色列时报,一名哈马斯消息人士称:我们会就解除武装进行谈判,但不能被迫放弃枪支。该人士表示,在此类谈 判中,哈马斯将要求以色列完成从加沙撤军并要求调解者保证以色列不得恢复在加沙的军事行动。哈马斯对解除武装表态软化,但条 件设定严峻;停火谈判第二阶段或复杂化。 宏观方面,前日法国总统结束对中国的访问并返回巴黎即表达了强硬立场,批评 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report maintains a moderately optimistic view on certain equity and commodity assets [3][10][15]. Core Viewpoints The Political Bureau meeting held on December 8, 2025, set a relatively positive tone for the economic work in 2026. The meeting outlined five key points, including a new work tone, loose and proactive fiscal and monetary policies, emphasis on key tasks in the 15th Five - Year Plan, understanding of internal risks, and special arrangements for low - carbon transformation. These may have potential impacts on major assets such as equity indices, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Economy - The meeting set the core tone for 2026 economic work, with specific arrangements to be made at the Central Economic Work Conference [14]. - Five key focuses: new work tone of coordinating domestic and international economic affairs; potentially loose and proactive fiscal and monetary policies; emphasis on 15th Five - Year Plan tasks like expanding domestic demand and innovation; awareness and arrangements for internal risks; and special work for low - carbon transformation [15][16][17]. 2. Equity Index - The meeting's policy is supportive, emphasizing domestic demand and technological innovation. In the stock market, take a long - term view, wait for the "spring rally" window, and focus on technology and the price - increase chain. At the end of the year, the market consolidates to release capital crowding, and pullbacks are opportunities to add positions. Short - term focus on price - increase chain and high - dividend stocks, and medium - term on innovation and IC sectors [20][21][22]. 3. Bond and Forex - Fiscal policies will be more proactive, and monetary policies will be moderately loosened in 2026. Short - term caution on the long end of government bonds, and medium - term the bond market may be strong and volatile. The RMB exchange rate in 2026 may show a stable and rising trend with an operating range of 6.8 - 7.2 [27][30][31]. 4. Commodities - The meeting's policies are conducive to stabilizing the macro - expectations on the demand side of the commodity market. Traditional domestic demand areas will receive support, and green transformation will create incremental demand for new - energy - related commodities. The meeting will restrain excessive price fluctuations of key varieties and boost market confidence [33][35][36].

展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注铂低吸做多机会。同时，在铂钯比价低位情况下，建议关注多 铂空钯策略。 钯观点：现货紧张延续，价格保持坚挺 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制裁预期，市场上大量钯金流向美国，导致其他地区 钯金供应出现阶段性收紧。此外，上周普京在克里姆林宫与特朗普特 使维特科夫及特朗普女婿库什纳举行长达五小时的闭门会谈，双方未 就乌克兰问题达成妥协方案，俄乌冲突缓和预期略有降温。需求方 面，钯金呈现显著的结构性压力。综合来看，虽然钯长期供需趋松， 但短期现货紧缺导致价格快速走高，叠加美联储再度进入降息周期， 钯价底部具备一定支撑。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-10 铂钯高位震荡，等待进一步驱动 12⽉9⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为436.40元/克，涨跌幅-1.30%；钯 主⼒合约收盘价为380.45元/克，涨跌幅-0.47%。 铂观点：FOMC会议临近，等待进⼀步向上驱动 主要逻辑：本周美 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-10 股市交易转向局部主题，债市重回震荡 股指期货：交易转向局部主题，上攻暂缺持续主线 股指期权：续持卖权防御为主 国债期货：国债期货全线上涨 股指期货方面，交易转向局部主题，上攻暂缺持续主线。周二沪指低 开回落，量能缩至不足2万亿元，市场缺乏持续主线，难聚集有效进攻。 周一的两大因素被快速计价，交易转向局部主题，一是有火箭发射计划的 商业航天，二是特朗普政府批准英伟达H200 AI芯片对华出口，且美方将 抽取25%销售额分成，催化英伟达概念强势，在多数行业收跌的环境中， 通信、电子行业收涨。而主要宽基指数中，仅创业板指收红，科创100跌 幅大于科创50，或反映部分公募资金，在年末将跑输业绩基准的压力下， 由小切大，补仓科技大盘股。主线分散，"春躁"进攻时点仍需等待，操 作上，我们看长做多，短期关注涨价链及高股息。 股指期权方面，续持卖权防御为主。昨日权益市场涨跌互现，沪指单 日收跌0.37%。期权方面，首先需要重点关注的是期权各品种市场成交额 大幅回落29.89%。正如我们在周一的日报中提示，观测周一期权流动性 ...

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-10 美联储12月利率决议临近，关注预期差 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 有⾊观点：美联储12⽉利率决议临近，关注预期差 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资对美联储12月降息预期升温，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端延 续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏 弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看， 中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧推高价格，但美联储12月利率决 议公布前资金出现获利回吐，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储议息会议将近，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价震荡回落。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价随有⾊ ...