1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, energy and chemical products are experiencing high volatility. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy facilities have led to supply shortages, driving up prices. The future trends of various products depend on the development of the geopolitical situation, with the overall energy and chemical sector expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors dominate oil prices, and the spread between domestic and international markets is widening. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating upwards. If the conflict eases, oil prices may peak and fall; if the situation persists, there is further upward potential [7]. - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical premium is being released. The absolute price is overvalued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline. The market is currently in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with high inventory pressure [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical premium has increased significantly. In the long - term, the substitution of fuel oil for power generation will put pressure on prices. The short - term trend depends on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. Although facing some negative factors, its current low valuation may cause it to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitical factors, it shows an oscillating upward trend. The Iranian situation is severe, and the market is trading on the geopolitical premium [26]. - **Urea**: Supported by demand and policy guidance, it shows an oscillating pattern. Supply is stable at a high level, and demand is gradually increasing [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The price limit was reached, and the short - term price is strong due to the resonance of cost and supply - demand factors. There is an expected reduction in imports, and the de - stocking pattern in the second quarter is expected to strengthen [20]. - **PX**: The price is expected to be oscillating upwards in the short - term, and the mid - term strategy is to go long on dips. The supply is decreasing while the demand is increasing, and the fundamentals are slightly strong [12]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, and the processing fee is significantly compressed. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating upwards, following the movement of upstream products [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: Cost support is significant, and the spot price adjustment is relatively slow. It is expected to follow the upward trend of upstream products in the short - term, with relatively large price volatility [21]. - **Bottle Chips**: The sharp rise in crude oil and upstream raw materials has driven the recovery of the downstream trading atmosphere. The absolute price follows the raw material price, and the support for the processing fee is increasing [23]. - **Propylene (PL)**: Significantly boosted by the raw material end, it shows an oscillating upward trend in the short - term [33]. - **PP**: Boosted by raw materials such as crude oil, methanol, and propane, it shows an oscillating upward trend in the short - term [32]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Boosted by the raw material end, it shows an oscillating upward trend in the short - term. There is a potential reduction in imports, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering [31]. - **Styrene**: Driven by device maintenance and crude oil fluctuations, it shows an oscillating upward trend. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve [17]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and the market should be viewed with caution. High inventory is a major pressure, and the market is expected to oscillate [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. High inventory and cost factors put pressure on the market, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, showing the changes in different periods [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of various products such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, along with their changes [40]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are given, indicating the changes in spreads [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is summarized as the relevant sections mainly list the product names without detailed data analysis. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and industrial product index all show an upward trend, with increases of 1.60%, 1.76%, and 1.48% respectively [282]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on March 2, 2026, shows a significant increase, with a daily increase of 5.20%, a 5 - day increase of 3.73%, a 1 - month increase of 10.86%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.60% [284].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core View of the Report - Overseas consumption confidence is recovering, industrial orders are diverging, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. In the US, consumer confidence rebounded in February, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, supporting industrial metals. Geopolitical risks pushed up energy and safe - haven premiums. [6] - In China, policy coordination is strengthening, high - frequency consumption is warming, and the real estate market is showing marginal improvement. Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal, and consumption during the Spring Festival was active. The real estate market is still at a low level, and the support from infrastructure construction for the black chain is limited. [6] - Asset allocation should focus on structure. If the war does not expand and energy production and transportation are not affected, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles have relative advantages. Otherwise, risk assets will be under pressure, while precious metals and energy will see an increase in safe - haven premiums. Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are over - allocated, bonds are neutral with a preference for short - term bonds, equities focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black sector is under - allocated, and the energy - chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission of oil prices. [6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: In February, US consumer confidence rebounded, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, supporting industrial metals. Geopolitical risks related to policy discussions and the Middle East situation pushed up energy and safe - haven premiums. The overall situation is "growth not stalling, with rising policy and geopolitical risks". [6] - **Domestic Macro**: In February, fiscal and monetary injections were higher than seasonal, and consumption during the Spring Festival was active. The real estate market is still at a low level, and the support from infrastructure construction for the black chain is limited. [6] - **Asset View**: Asset allocation should focus on structure. If the war does not expand, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles have relative advantages. Otherwise, risk assets will be under pressure, while precious metals and energy will see an increase in safe - haven premiums. [6] 2. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: Entering the position adjustment observation period, with concerns about AI easing. Pay attention to incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Stock Index Options**: The option market is trading for medium - to long - term slow growth. Pay attention to option market liquidity, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Institutions are cautious before the Two Sessions, and the bond market has declined. Pay attention to the implementation of monetary policy, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] 3. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, pushing up the safe - haven premium of gold. Pay attention to US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Silver**: The safe - haven premium has pushed up precious metals, and the shortage of silver in the spot market continues. Pay attention to US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] 4. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Geopolitical tensions are high, and there is an expectation of price increases in the spot market. Pay attention to geopolitical events, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East situation, and the opening of the spot market, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] 5. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: After the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak, and the upward momentum of the market is limited. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments remain high, and arrivals have decreased slightly. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [7] - **Coke**: Coke enterprises' shipments are accelerating, and inventory pressure is acceptable. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and downstream replenishment, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Coking Coal**: Production has basically recovered, and the market is fluctuating widely. Pay attention to coal mine复产, Mongolian coal imports, and downstream replenishment, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Silicon Iron**: The enthusiasm for long positions remains high, and the market continues to be strong. Pay attention to changes in raw material costs and fluctuations in factory start - up rates, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [7] - **Manganese Silicon**: Costs are strong, and the market continues to rise. Pay attention to manganese ore price adjustments and factory production control trends, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [7] - **Glass**: There is an expectation of increased supply, and prices are fluctuating downward. Pay attention to spot sales, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Soda Ash**: Inventories have been accumulating after the Spring Festival, and prices are fluctuating. Pay attention to soda ash inventories, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] 6. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and copper prices are at a high level. Pay attention to supply disruptions, domestic policy stimulus, Fed policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Alumina**: The expectation of production cuts is in a game with the reality of oversupply, and alumina prices are fluctuating. Pay attention to disturbances in Guinea, domestic ore policies, and alumina factory production cuts, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased supply concerns, and aluminum prices are rising. Pay attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand shortfalls, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Zinc**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to high - level fluctuations in zinc prices. Pay attention to macro risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Lead**: Geopolitical conflicts have disrupted the market, and lead prices are fluctuating. Pay attention to supply disruptions and rapid weakening of demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Nickel**: High inventory levels are suppressing the market, and the market is fluctuating. Pay attention to unexpected changes in macro and geopolitical situations, Indonesian policies, and unexpected shortfalls in supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are strong, and the stainless - steel market is rising. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and unexpected increases in demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Tin**: Supply concerns remain, and tin prices are strongly supported. Pay attention to unexpected shortfalls in demand recovery and unexpected increases in supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply has increased, and silicon prices are under pressure. Pay attention to unexpected production cuts on the supply side, policy changes, and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Polysilicon**: Inventories are continuously accumulating, and polysilicon is temporarily under pressure. Pay attention to policy changes, unexpected production cuts on the supply side, and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Concerns about demand expectations have led to a correction in lithium carbonate prices. Pay attention to unexpected increases in demand, supply disruptions, and fluctuations in macro sentiment, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Platinum**: Geopolitical risks have rapidly increased, and platinum price fluctuations may significantly intensify. Pay attention to unexpected increases in production in major producing areas and unexpected shortfalls in demand recovery, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Palladium**: The spot market is continuously in short supply, and prices are strongly supported. Pay attention to unexpected increases in production in major producing areas and unexpected shortfalls in demand recovery, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations dominate oil prices, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is widening. Pay attention to OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **LPG**: Geopolitical situations dominate the rhythm, and import costs are rising. Pay attention to crude oil prices, refinery start - up rates, and PDH demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical premium of asphalt is being released. Pay attention to sanctions and supply disruptions, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has increased significantly due to the US - Iran conflict. Pay attention to geopolitics and crude oil prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has risen sharply following crude oil. Pay attention to crude oil prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitical situations, methanol is volatile and bullish. Pay attention to macro - energy, the Middle East situation, and actual overseas production stoppages, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Urea**: There is both demand support and policy guidance, and urea is fluctuating and consolidating. Pay attention to coal market conditions, downstream replenishment rhythms, and commercial storage and release, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The futures price has reached the daily limit, and the short - term price is strong due to the resonance of cost and supply - demand. Pay attention to coal and oil price fluctuations, port arrival rhythms, the Iranian geopolitical situation, and Strait of Hormuz passage, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PX**: Geopolitical situations have pushed up chemical product prices. Under the situation of reduced supply and increased demand, PX profitability remains strong. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, unexpected shortfalls in downstream polyester resumption, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PTA**: Market sentiment has been further fermented by the escalation of geopolitical situations, and the spot profit of PX has been significantly compressed. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, unexpected shortfalls in downstream polyester resumption, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Short - Fiber**: Cost support is significant, and the spot market is relatively slow. Wait for downstream transmission. Pay attention to the purchasing rhythm of downstream spinning mills, demand changes around the Spring Festival, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Bottle Chip**: Crude oil and upstream raw materials have strengthened significantly, driving the downstream trading atmosphere to warm up. Pay attention to the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production reduction targets, shipping costs, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Propylene**: The raw material end has provided significant support, and PL has strengthened significantly. Pay attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PP**: The raw material end, including crude oil, methanol, and propane, has provided support, and PP has strengthened significantly. Pay attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - situations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Plastic**: The raw material end has provided support, and plastic prices have strengthened. Pay attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - situations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Styrene**: Affected by crude oil price fluctuations, styrene is volatile and bullish. Pay attention to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and PVC should be viewed with caution. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda should be put on hold for the time being. Pay attention to market sentiment, start - up rates, and demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Fats and Oils**: Crude oil prices have skyrocketed, and fats and oils are volatile and bullish. Pay attention to rapeseed trade, biodiesel, Malaysian palm oil production and demand, and South American weather, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Protein Meal**: The two types of meal have short - term technical adjustment pressure. Pay attention to US soybean planting areas, customs policies, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Corn**: Market sentiment has heated up, and both futures and spot prices are rising. Pay attention to demand, the macro - situation, and weather, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Pig**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and pig prices are falling. Pay attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [9] 8. Agriculture - **Natural Rubber**: It has risen following market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the previous high - level pressure. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - level changes, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The entire sector has risen significantly, driving synthetic rubber prices up. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Cotton**: It has entered a correction phase. Pay attention to production and demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Sugar**: Sugar prices may rebound slightly in the short term, but the medium - to long - term expectation is volatile and bearish. Pay attention to lower - than - expected production in the Northern Hemisphere, macro - economic fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and crude oil prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Pulp**: The spot market is not strong, and pulp futures are bearish. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Double - Glued Paper**: Demand has not started after the Spring Festival, and double - glued paper is fluctuating. Pay attention to production and sales, education policies, and paper mill start - up dynamics, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Log**: Trading is light, and prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Pay attention to shipment volumes and shipping volumes, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The precious metals market is experiencing high - level oscillations due to intensified interest rate games. The market sentiment has shifted from single - factor (geopolitical risk) to a three - factor game of "geopolitical risk + growth resilience + inflation repricing" [1]. - Gold is supported by safe - haven demand, but the pressure from interest rates is increasing. Silver has dual attributes, and its price amplitude has been magnified [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and potential energy and shipping risks continue to provide risk - premium support for gold. The better - than - expected ISM manufacturing data strengthen the narrative of economic resilience, weakening market bets on rapid interest - rate cuts and putting downward pressure on gold prices. The significant rebound of the price - payment index in the ISM data leads to fluctuations in real - interest - rate expectations, causing gold prices to face a re - balance between bulls and bears at high levels [1]. - **Outlook**: If geopolitical conflicts continue to spread and energy prices rise, gold will have both safe - haven and anti - inflation support. If growth data remain strong and yields increase, gold prices may enter a stage of high - level oscillations and sentiment fluctuations. The medium - term direction depends on the evolution of real interest rates and the US dollar [1]. Silver - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts and safe - haven demand provide support for silver, but its financial attribute is more sensitive. The new - order index has declined but remains in the expansion range, indicating that industrial demand has not significantly weakened, thus supporting the structural elasticity of silver prices. The sharp increase in the price - payment index raises interest - rate expectations, and the rapid switching of funds between domestic and foreign markets significantly amplifies the intraday amplitude of silver prices [2]. - **Outlook**: If the risk sentiment continues and energy prices remain high, silver has elasticity under the "safe - haven + industrial expectation" framework. If the US dollar and yields continue to strengthen, the decline of silver prices may be greater than that of gold [2]. Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: No specific data provided. - **Specialty Index**: The commodity index is 2458.25, up 1.60%; the commodity 20 index is 2824.14, up 1.76%; the industrial products index is 2331.34, up 1.48% [42]. - **Sector Index - Precious Metals**: On March 2, 2026, the precious metals index was 4629.10, with a daily increase of 3.49%, a 5 - day increase of 4.67%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.65%, and an increase of 21.05% year - to - date [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the overall black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently in the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the realization of peak - season demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the pricing weight of fundamentals is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand structure will remain healthy. However, there may be short - term disturbances on the demand side. With the weakening of coking coal cost support, there is an expectation of price reduction for spot goods. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal [2][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot is expected to run weakly and stably, and the futures market is expected to run with wide - range oscillations affected by capital sentiment [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the upstream inventory is high. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face obvious selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will fluctuate around the cost valuation [2][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. After the futures valuation is repaired to near the cost, the driving force for further upward movement is insufficient. It is difficult for the silicon iron futures price to maintain a high level [2][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of increase, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [2][12] 3.5 Steel - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both weak, the inventory is still accumulating, the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated, and the expectations for the peak season are still cautious. The futures market is expected to run under pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 1.60% to 2458.25, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.76% to 2824.14, and the industrial products index increased by 1.48% to 2331.34. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.35% on that day, 0.87% in the past 5 days, - 4.40% in the past month, and - 3.38% since the beginning of the year [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has increased concerns about supply disruptions, and base metals are expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short - term. There are short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. In the medium - term, due to the risk of the Fed's independence and supply disruptions, these metals are likely to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts intensify, and copper prices operate at a high level. The supply constraint of copper still exists, and the short - term geopolitical situation increases the risk of supply disruptions. Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening [6]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 210 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 51.06 US dollars/dry ton, with no month - on - month change. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and copper supply may be affected, supporting copper prices. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the smelting profit of refined copper is falling, with an expected contraction in supply. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory of refined copper is high, which limits the upward space of copper prices [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and alumina prices oscillate. The current supply and demand are in excess, but the expectation of production cuts is intensifying, so alumina is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [7]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2659.9 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the alumina warehouse receipt was 326,638 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,980 tons. The current spot average price has dropped significantly compared with the end of last year, and high - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, with an increasing expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the domestic inventory accumulation trend is strong. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the support for alumina prices [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts increase supply concerns, and aluminum prices oscillate upwards. In the short - term, due to the repeated capital sentiment and the expected tightening of supply and demand, aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend. In the medium - term, the supply is constrained, the demand has resilient growth, and the supply - demand relationship turns to shortage, with the center of aluminum prices expected to rise [8][10]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the domestic spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,619 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 170 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The national mainstream consumer area aluminum ingot inventory was 1.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory was 405,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt was 294,788 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,490 tons. The US economic data is structurally differentiated, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has further escalated, but the macro - expectation is expected to remain positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The supply in Indonesia is constrained. The weekly initial - stage operating rate has slightly recovered, but high prices still suppress demand, and the inventory is still accumulating [8]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support continues, and prices oscillate upwards. In the short - term, due to strong cost support, prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend. In the medium - term, the cost support logic is strengthened, and there is a risk of production cuts in the supply end, with the supply - demand relationship maintaining a tight balance [12]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the price of ADC12 was 23,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, and the supply is tight, providing strong cost support. The operating rate is at a low level, and the policy may still restrict supply. The automobile trade - in policy continues, but the subsidy intensity has decreased, and high prices suppress downstream demand. The weekly social inventory has accumulated [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East cause zinc prices to oscillate at a high level. In the short - term, the supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but the macro - sentiment has improved, and zinc prices may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, zinc supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is limited, and zinc prices may decline [13]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 10 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc was - 130 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc was - 50 yuan/ton. As of March 2, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 211,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,600 tons. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, which may affect zinc supply and support zinc prices. The decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, and the smelter's profit has not improved significantly, but the import of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new orders from the terminal are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average [13]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts cause lead prices to oscillate. The production of lead ingots remains high, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises may gradually recover after the Spring Festival, but the terminal demand is weak, and the lead ingot inventory may still accumulate. Due to the high cost of waste batteries, lead prices are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead was 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 lead ingot was 16,525 - 16,625 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,575 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets was 67,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,900 tons; the latest warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead was 54,929 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,888 tons. The spot premium is stable, the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable, and the futures warehouse receipt has decreased. The price of waste batteries is stable, the lead price is stable, the smelting profit of recycled lead is stable, and the smelter is still in the process of resuming production. The demand for electric bicycles is weak, but it is gradually entering the peak consumption season, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually recover [14][15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: High inventory suppresses the market, and the price oscillates and strengthens. The current fundamental situation of nickel has not improved significantly, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to be loose in February. The high LME inventory suppresses prices, but the downward revision of Indonesia's nickel ore quota in 2026 supports nickel prices [16]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 53,721 tons, a month - on - month increase of 590 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 287,976 tons, with no month - on - month change. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million tons and 270 million tons. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), with no change compared with the 28th. The domestic production of electrolytic nickel in January increased month - on - month, and the production of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia in January remained high. The overall supply pressure of nickel still exists, and the fundamental situation is in excess. Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota in 2026 and plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of nickel cost and balance [15][16]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market oscillates upwards. In January, the production schedule increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but it is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak in the traditional off - season, but considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and the support from the ore end, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [17]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 52,185 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was 15 yuan/ton relative to the stainless - steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), with no change compared with the 28th. The price of nickel iron is strong, and the chromium end is stable, providing some support for the cost of stainless steel. The production schedule in January increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but it is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival. The terminal demand is still cautious, and the social inventory has accumulated, and the warehouse receipt has also increased marginally [17]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: Supply concerns still exist, and tin prices have strong support. In the long - term, due to high supply risks, tin prices are expected to oscillate and strengthen [19]. - **Analysis**: On March 2, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons to 7,550 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 113 tons to 11,531 tons; the Shanghai tin position increased by 23,491 lots to 113,075 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin ingot was 434,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The armed conflict in Myanmar has raised market concerns, although it did not occur in the main tin - producing area of Wa State and will not significantly affect tin production for the time being. Indonesia's short - term supply is restricted due to RKAB approval. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, increasing supply concerns. The supply of tin mines is tightening, the processing fee of tin concentrates is at a low level, and the output of refined tin is difficult to increase. The semiconductor industry is growing rapidly, and the consumption in new energy vehicles and other fields continues to rise, and the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow [19]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodity index showed that the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index were 2458.25 (+1.60%), 2824.14 (+1.76%), and 2331.34 (+1.48%) respectively. The non - ferrous metal index was 2732.94, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 1.38%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.37%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.75% [146][148].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand expectations of new energy metals are differentiated, and lithium carbonate is relatively strong. In the short - to - medium term, the price trends of new energy metals will diverge. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, and the price center may rise; the supply - demand surplus of lithium ore is expected to narrow, and the price center will be pushed up [2]. - Industrial silicon: Supply has rebounded, and silicon prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - Polysilicon: Inventory continues to accumulate, and polysilicon is temporarily under pressure. - Lithium carbonate: Concerns about demand expectations have led to a correction in lithium carbonate [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: As of March 2, the price of Tongyang 553 in Xinjiang was 8,650 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,300 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9,750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of last week, domestic inventory was 462,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; market inventory was 186,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; factory inventory was 276,050 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [7]. - **Production Data**: In February, the production of industrial silicon was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%; the cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [7]. - **Export Data**: In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the operation in the southwest during the dry season has dropped to a very low level, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. The operation of large northwest factories has rebounded, and it is expected to continue to recover. On the demand side, the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak. In the long - term, there is still pressure of over - supply [7]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, silicon prices are still under pressure due to the increasing supply. Currently, the market sentiment is volatile, and silicon prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On March 2, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 54.5 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day [7][8]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: On March 2, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,510 lots, with no change from the previous day [8]. - **Import and Export Data**: In December 2025, the export volume of polysilicon was about 1,670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December was about 25,115.57 tons; the import volume in December was about 1,872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was about 19,051.01 tons [8]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the production of polysilicon in the southwest has decreased, and it is expected to continue to contract. On the demand side, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt numbers are increasing, putting pressure on prices. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation may tighten, and prices may show a wide - range fluctuation [10]. - **Outlook**: The weak demand drags down the price of polysilicon, but considering the continued supply contraction, the price may show a wide - range fluctuation [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Information**: On March 2, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.28% to 172,020 yuan/ton; the total open interest decreased by 4,164 lots to 707,561 lots. The morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 172,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,150 yuan/ton from the previous day; the evening market price was 173,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 170,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous day; the evening price was 173,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 265 lots to 38,196 lots [11]. - **Main Logic**: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, but the terminal performance needs further observation. From January to February, supply was relatively strong, and demand was also good, maintaining a tight balance. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand have recovered. In March, strong demand and the ban on lithium ore exports from Zimbabwe have boosted market sentiment, but the new energy vehicle sales from January to February were not optimistic. In the short - term, the fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 3.2行情监测 There is no specific content provided in the given text for this part. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,458.25, an increase of 1.60%; the commodity 20 index was 2,824.14, an increase of 1.76%; the industrial product index was 2,331.34, an increase of 1.48% [49]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On March 2, 2026, the index was 547.74, with a daily decline of 0.52%, a 5 - day increase of 1.77%, a 1 - month decline of 7.48%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.47% [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 2, equity index futures were mixed, with most commodities performing well and Energy & Chemicals leading the gains. In equity index futures, IH rose 0.1% and IM dropped 1.1%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.55% and T rose 0.13%. In commodity futures, SCFIS(Europe), Silver, and Fuel Oil were the top three gainers, while Poly-Silicon, Live Hog, and Sodium Hydroxide were the top three decliners [10][11][12]. - The price of crude oil is expected to rise due to supply disruptions. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have supported prices since January, and after the military conflict on February 28, oil prices entered a phase of verifying supply disruptions. The outcome of the conflict will affect the price range of Brent crude [16][17][20]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has stronger geopolitical sensitivity. The military conflict between the U.S. and Iran will impact Iran's fuel oil exports, and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause further supply losses. High-sulfur fuel oil is expected to reflect geopolitical premiums more strongly than bitumen, leading to a faster narrowing of the bitumen - fuel oil spread [26][27][29]. - The rise in the SCFIS(Europe) contract is mainly sentiment - driven in the short term. Houthi militants' threat to resume attacks on vessels in the Red Sea may lead shipping lines to return to the Cape of Good Hope route, increasing the transit premium for the Strait of Hormuz. The SCFIS Europe Apr contract may rise to 1450 - 1500 points, and bullish sentiment may spread to the May and June peak - season contracts [33][35][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures - Overview - On March 2, equity index futures were mixed, and most commodities showed high performances, with Energy & Chemicals leading the raise. In equity index futures, IH rose 0.1% and IM dropped 1.1%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.55% and T rose 0.13%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were SCFIS(Europe), Silver, and Fuel Oil, and the top three decliners were Poly - Silicon, Live Hog, and Sodium Hydroxide [10][11][12]. 3.2 China Futures - Daily Raise 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On March 2, the front - month contract of Crude Oil rose 9.0% to 527.8 yuan/barrel (INE). Since January, prices have been supported by escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. After the military conflict on February 28, oil prices entered a phase of verifying supply disruptions. If the conflict is limited to military targets and ends in the short term, Brent crude is expected to fluctuate between $70 - 78 per barrel before retreating. If the conflict impacts crude oil production or transportation, short - term price volatility will intensify [16][17][20]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - On March 2, the front - month contract of Fuel Oil rose 9.0% to 3186 yuan/ton (SHFE). High - sulfur fuel oil has stronger geopolitical sensitivity. The military conflict between the U.S. and Iran will directly hit Iran's fuel oil exports, and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause further supply losses. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to reflect geopolitical premiums more strongly than bitumen, leading to a faster narrowing of the bitumen - fuel oil spread. Investors may watch for opportunities to long bitumen and short fuel oil if the forward spread falls below 400 yuan per tone [26][27][29]. 3.2.3 SCFIS(Europe) - On March 2, the front - month contract of SCFIS(Europe) rose 15.0% to 1429.2 points (INE). Houthi militants' claim to resume attacks on vessels in the Red Sea may lead shipping lines to return to the Cape of Good Hope route, increasing the transit premium for the Strait of Hormuz. The impact on Europe routes is mostly sentiment - driven in the short term. The SCFIS Europe Apr contract may rise to 1450 - 1500 points, and bullish sentiment may spread to the May and June peak - season contracts [33][35][39]. 3.3 China News - Macro News - On March 1, Wang Yi spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. China and Russia pushed for an emergency UNSC meeting on Iran. China upholds the UN Charter, opposes the use of force, and is highly concerned about the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. On March 2, MOFCOM stated China will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S.-Iran conflict has significant impacts on various sectors, with prices in energy, precious metals, chemicals, and container shipping likely to be affected [8][9]. - The development of the conflict has three scenarios, each with different impacts on the market [8][27]. - Different sectors will respond differently to the conflict, with some being more directly affected and others being more indirectly affected [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Event Development Progress - On February 28 local time, the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, and Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was reported killed in an attack on the same morning [21][23][59]. - As of March 1, most vessels around the Strait of Hormuz remained congested and awaiting passage [22][59]. - Three scenarios for subsequent event development are envisioned: symbolic Iranian retaliation and rapid regime transition; stable Iranian regime and intensified retaliation; prolonged but contained conflict [27][62]. Crude Oil - Crude prices have been supported by U.S.-Iran tensions since January, and after the February 28 military escalation, the market will test whether geopolitical risks translate into actual supply disruptions [9][31][63]. - If conflicts remain limited to military targets and end quickly, Brent crude is expected to trade between $70–$78/bbl before retreating. If production or transport is impacted, short-term price elasticity will increase [9][31][63]. - China's domestic crude futures may see additional support from rising tanker costs and increased demand for alternative crudes, widening the spread between domestic and international benchmarks [9][31][63]. Chemicals - Chemicals like methanol, MEG, fuel oil, and LPG may rise short-term due to geopolitical, cost, and transport concerns, but major facilities in the region remain largely undamaged [10][50]. - Continued attention is needed on conflict duration and strait accessibility [10][50]. Natural Gas - The impact of the Iran situation on the global natural gas market depends primarily on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz [11][38][69]. - A phased slowdown in trade flows following a conflict escalation would provide bullish support to gas prices in Europe and Asia. If a sustained and significant drop in Middle Eastern LNG exports emerges later, it would further stimulate price increases in Eurasian gas markets [11][38][69]. Precious Metals - Precious metals may benefit from rising safe-haven demand in the short term, but the sustainability of rallies depends on the severity and longevity of geopolitical tensions [12][39][70]. - Gold and silver prices could challenge recent highs in March [13][40][70]. Container Shipping - Freight rates on Middle Eastern container routes have already increased, and war surcharges are a key focus. Other routes may follow [14][41][71]. - The Middle East accounts for ~5% of global container volume, with ~3% transiting the Strait of Hormuz [14][41][71]. - The April contract highs could reach 1,450–1,500 points [14][41][72]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The U.S.-Iran military conflict is likely to intensify concerns over potential supply shocks in the near term, providing upward impetus to base metal prices [15][42][73]. - In the medium term, base metals are expected to continue to exhibit a volatile but bullish trend [15][42][73]. Ferrous Metals - The impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on ferrous metals is primarily sentiment-driven, with minimal direct supply or cost transmission [16][44][74]. - Higher oil prices may raise seaborne iron ore transport costs, but with a lag [16][44][74]. Agriculture - The U.S.-Iran conflict affects the agriculture sector mainly through oil price volatility, with synthetic rubber being the most sensitive [17][45][75]. - Traditional crops may see mild gains from higher fertilizer costs, but historical data shows low sensitivity in agricultural markets [18][45][75]. U.S. Treasuries - A prolonged conflict could erode the safe-haven appeal of U.S. assets [19][46][76]. - Treasury yields are more tied to domestic fundamentals than geopolitics [19][46][76]. Chinese Government Bonds - Risk-off sentiment may support bond markets, but policy uncertainty looms [20][48][78]. - Short-term, bonds may see upward momentum, but pre-meeting policy speculation could lead to range-bound trading. Medium-term, potential RRR/cut cuts may support a bullish bias [20][48][78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, under the background of supply tightening, tin prices are expected to fluctuate, with the price movement range between 360,000 - 500,000 yuan per ton. It is not recommended to chase high now. If the tin price adjusts later, it can be continuously concerned. In the medium - term, if the resumption and new production in the main tin - producing areas go smoothly, tin supply and demand may ease but still maintain a tight balance, with increasing callback risks and high - level fluctuations in tin prices. In the long - term, with obvious increase in mine supply and strong demand, the central price of tin is expected to show an upward trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On February 27, 2026, tin prices continued to rise sharply. The Shanghai tin main contract rose 8.88% to 453,240 yuan per ton. The main reason for the rise is the intensification of armed conflicts in Myanmar, which has caused concerns about tin ore supply. However, the conflict mainly occurred in non - main tin - producing areas, so it is considered that it will not have an obvious impact on tin ore production for the time being [3] 2. Fundamental Situation - Currently, the domestic mine end is in a tight situation, which restricts the output of refined tin. As of February 13, the processing fee for 60% grade tin ore is 10,000 yuan per ton, and that for 40% grade is 14,000 yuan per ton, remaining at a relatively low level. In January, domestic refined tin output was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.74%; the domestic tin smelter start - up rate was 56.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points. Recently, the explicit inventory of tin has accumulated. As of February 26, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 11,556 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 7,575 tons [4] 3. Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the mine end is continuously tightening, resulting in raw material shortages for smelters and low tin ore processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin output. In terms of demand, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, consumption in new energy vehicles and other fields continues to rise, and considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand is expected to continue to grow [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, under the background of supply tightening, tin prices are expected to fluctuate, with the price movement range between 360,000 - 500,000 yuan per ton. Currently, it is not recommended to chase high prices. If the tin price adjusts later, it can be continuously monitored. In the medium - term, if the resumption and new production in the main tin - producing areas proceed smoothly, tin supply and demand may ease slightly but still remain in a tight - balance state, with relatively high callback risks, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the long - term, with a significant increase in ore supply and strong demand, the center of tin prices is expected to show an upward trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On February 27, 2026, tin prices continued to rise sharply. As of the close, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose 8.88% to 453,240 yuan per ton. The main reason for the increase in tin prices is the intensification of armed conflicts in Myanmar, which has caused market concerns about tin ore supply. However, the conflict mainly occurred in areas other than the main tin - producing area of Wa State, so it is considered that it will not have an obvious impact on tin ore production for the time being [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the domestic ore supply is tightening, which restricts refined tin production. As of February 13, the processing fee for 60% grade tin ore is 10,000 yuan per ton, and that for 40% grade tin ore is 14,000 yuan per ton, remaining at a relatively low level. In January, the domestic refined tin output was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.74%; the domestic tin smelter operating rate was 56.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points. Recently, the visible tin inventory has accumulated, mainly because some smelters transported goods to the warehouse and registered warehouse receipts. As of February 26, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 11,556 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 7,575 tons [4] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the continuous tightening of the ore end has led to a shortage of raw materials for smelters and low tin ore processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin output. In terms of demand, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in areas such as new energy vehicles continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand is expected to continue to grow [5]