Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of oil and gas are rising, and due to the cold snap, coal prices are also strong, providing cost support for chemicals. Chemicals also have some industry benefits. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of spring maintenance, and the market anticipates the possible "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak after the Spring Festival. The futures prices have limited adjustment space and will generally fluctuate [2]. - Crude oil still has the possibility of geopolitical risks, and chemicals should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and oil prices continue to oscillate. Supply pressure persists, but geopolitical premium may fluctuate. It should be viewed as oscillating in the short - term [3][6]. - **Main Logic**: Global on - land crude oil inventories have been accumulating, overseas refined oil inventories are under pressure, and the supply surplus pattern remains. The shutdown of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield supports the Western market. Geopolitics is the short - term focus, and previous military actions between Iran and Israel had little impact on oil supply. If relevant tail risks materialize, oil prices are likely to rise and then fall. If the Iranian situation eases, oil prices may approach the lower limit of the oscillation range [6]. Asphalt - **View**: The high valuation of asphalt is gradually being revised downward, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - term [3][6][7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1, and the partial lifting of sanctions on Venezuela will increase its oil production and exports. The current asphalt market is still trading the reduction of discounts due to the US selling Venezuelan oil at the current price, which supports asphalt costs. However, it will lead to abundant long - term supply, which is a major negative for asphalt. The US - Iran situation has not further escalated, and the decline in crude oil has led to the downward revision of asphalt's high valuation. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high [6]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has declined, and it is expected to oscillate. Venezuelan oil production growth expectations will long - term pressure high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [3][7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of a surge in heavy - oil supply, which pressures high - sulfur fuel oil in the long - term. The US - Iran situation has temporarily cooled, and the geopolitical premium of fuel oil has significantly declined. Although Iraq may resume fuel - oil power generation in the short - term, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle East are long - term negatives for high - sulfur fuel oil. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a cooling trend, but the expansion of the asphalt - fuel oil spread may increase the processing demand for fuel oil [7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates widely and is expected to oscillate. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high - sulfur fuels, with limited demand space, but its current valuation is low and it follows crude - oil fluctuations [3][9]. - **Main Logic**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude - oil fluctuations. The expected release of Venezuelan oil has led to an increase in the Brent - Dubai crude oil spread and a rebound in the low - high sulfur spread. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage over refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9]. PX - **View**: The bottom of polyester load is relatively confirmed, and PX's profitability has stabilized. In the short - term, PX prices will seek upward drivers without new negatives, and PXN is expected to remain in the range of [300, 350] dollars/ton [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Crude - oil prices oscillate in a range, naphtha remains stagnant, and PX strengthened significantly in the afternoon. Macroeconomic利好 policies were successively introduced, boosting market sentiment. There were rumors of individual factories' far - month maintenance plans, which stimulated the market. The bottom of polyester's new - year start - up is confirmed, and PTA's good profitability supports the upstream, so PX's profitability has stabilized after half a month of correction [11]. PTA - **View**: Funds have flowed in again, and TA's profit has expanded. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the TA05 - 09 maintains a positive - spread logic [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are tepid, the commodity - market sentiment is positive, and TA rose rapidly in the afternoon with a large increase in positions and inflow of funds. Fundamentally, the low point of downstream polyester load is confirmed, and demand has bottomed out. Without new negatives, prices are expected to be warm in the short - term. With the rapid rise of futures prices, the basis is expected to be weak overall [12]. Pure Benzene - **View**: Port de - stocking is obvious, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. Short - term high inventory may limit the increase, but there will be a quarterly improvement [13][15]. - **Main Logic**: The East - China pure - benzene port has de - stocked for the first time in two months. Low - price pure benzene and strong downstream styrene have created a market waiting for a rise. Downstream profit - locking has pushed up the price of pure benzene. There is a possibility of the US canceling the 15% tariff on South Korean pure benzene. In the chemical industry, pure benzene, with a relatively low valuation, has become a long - position choice for funds [15]. Styrene - **View**: Supply and demand are tight, and styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. If there is no unexpected significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term under the repeated stimulation of exports [16]. - **Main Logic**: The strength of styrene comes from export disturbances, geopolitical disturbances leading to rising crude - oil prices, and a positive overall commodity atmosphere. The expected inventory accumulation in January has been reversed, and the non - integrated device profit is relatively high. Before the restart of Sinochem Quanzhou in late January, the supply - demand pattern is favorable [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The main - port inventory continues to accumulate, and ethylene glycol is in a difficult situation. In the short - term, prices will remain in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [17][18]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas imports are still large, and there is obvious seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure. Domestic supply is shrinking slowly, some port inventories are tight, and polyester factories are gradually reducing production, making it difficult to reverse the weak pattern [18]. Short - Fiber - **View**: Short - fiber moderately follows the rise, and profits are compressed. Prices will follow the upstream for adjustment, and processing fees are under some pressure [19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw materials have risen sharply, and short - fiber sales have improved slightly. However, due to the strong short - term cost, short - fiber profits are under pressure, and the absolute price is expected to moderately follow the rise [20]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **View**: Supply continues to compress, and processing fees have a repair expectation. The absolute value will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees at the bottom has increased [21]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw materials rose in the afternoon, and polyester bottle - chips followed the cost increase. The trading atmosphere was good, and the price of polyester bottle - chips will mainly follow the upstream in the short - term, with support for processing fees at the bottom [21]. Methanol - **View**: The inland area remains weak, and there is a long - short game in the coastal area. Methanol will oscillate in a range in the short - term [24]. - **Main Logic**: The inland market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and producers are actively reducing prices to clear inventory. Coastal port high - inventory pressure is significant, and the shutdown of the Zhejiang Xingxing device has further weakened the MTO external - procurement demand. Short - term negatives are stronger than the positives of overseas macro uncertainties [24]. Urea - **View**: New orders at low prices have improved, and urea has stabilized and oscillated. The market has no substantial guiding information, and the trading rhythm is adjusted according to prices. In the short - term, the fundamentals have little change, and it will oscillate [25]. - **Main Logic**: The daily production of urea remains at a high level, and the supply of goods is sufficient. The demand for compound fertilizers and other industries is relatively rigid, and the agricultural demand in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions is also advancing. After several days of price decline, new orders at low prices have improved, and the market has temporarily stabilized [25]. LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Maintenance has slightly decreased, and plastic will oscillate. In the short - term, it will oscillate [29]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. Fundamentally, the pressure has been released, and after the rebound, the profits of various production methods have been repaired. Maintenance has decreased recently, and demand is in the off - season. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and the improvement in inventory and downstream confidence, the downside space is limited [29]. PP - **View**: Maintenance and macro - expectations still provide support, and PP should be viewed as oscillating. It will oscillate in the short - term [30]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. The profits of various PP production methods have been repaired, and the upside space is limited. The downstream is in the off - season, and trading volume has decreased recently. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and short - term maintenance support, the downside space is limited [30]. PL - **View**: Supply has tightened, and PL will oscillate. It will oscillate in the short - term [31]. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance expectation still provides support. Individual domestic devices have stopped, and the market supply has tightened again. However, downstream follow - up is weak, suppressing the overall buying rhythm. Enterprises mainly maintain stable prices for sales, and the actual - order price range has little change. Short - term powder profits fluctuate slightly, and downstream demand support in the off - season is limited [31]. PVC - **View**: "Rushing for exports" provides support, and the downside space should be carefully considered. It is expected to oscillate. The cancellation of export tax - refunds and the expected increase in the external - market price may promote short - term export - rushing, but in the long - term, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and the market will be oscillating [34]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the export tax - refund for PVC will be cancelled on April 1st. At the micro - level, short - term "rushing for exports" may promote de - stocking, but long - term supply - demand expectations are still under pressure. Profits have improved, boosting the production willingness of marginal enterprises. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and restocking willingness is poor. Upstream price increases are not conducive to export orders, and the sustainability of this week's export orders needs to be observed. The supply of calcium carbide has decreased while demand has increased, and its price may be boosted. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, and its profit is squeezed, and the price is under pressure [34]. Caustic Soda - **View**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and it is running weakly. Inventory pressure is large, and with stable costs, profits may still be squeezed, and the market will run weakly [35]. - **Main Logic**: The weak reality of caustic soda continues, and inventory is still accumulating. Alumina marginal - device profits are poor, and production cuts may be slow. Weiqiao's caustic - soda inventory is high, and the purchase price has been lowered again. The commissioning of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will marginally boost caustic - soda demand. Non - aluminum start - up is weakening, and the restocking willingness of the middle and lower reaches is not high. Upstream start - up has changed little, and caustic - soda production remains at a historical high. The "rushing for exports" of epichlorohydrin supports the price of liquid chlorine, and the short - term cost of caustic soda may be stable [35]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are given, including the latest values and changes [37]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [38]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the content, only the variety names are listed. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2414.16, down 0.15%. The commodity 20 index is 2773.48, down 0.23%. The industrial - products index is 2308.47, down 0.34% [281]. - **Energy Index**: On January 20, 2026, the energy index was 1099.40, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day decline of 2.59%, a 1 - month increase of 2.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.18% [283].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-01-21 股债跷跷板效应再度显现 股指期货：TMT及军⼯拖累情绪 股指期权：备兑防御为主 国债期货：⻛险偏好降温，债市上涨 股指期货方面，周二全天弱势，其中下跌个股多于上涨个股，尾盘跌 势收窄。行业方面，石化、地产、建材等价值行业领涨，高股息资产表现 占优，这显示盘面情绪偏向防御。触发早盘调整的因素有三，其一，亚太 市场早盘弱势，日韩股市普跌间接传导至A股及港股市场，其二，上午部 分宽基ETF成交放量，市场近期担心大资金集中止盈的可能性，故转向保 守，其三，以军工为代表的题材加速跳水，隐含融资新规之后，资金调仓 换股。展望后市，仍积极看待市场，尽管负面因素累积，但两会之前政策 偏暖预期、弱势美元、经济数据空窗期等有利因素难以证伪，短期虽有波 折，但不改趋势。同时降温之后，资金向稳健方向游走，中证500在主要 宽基中仍有比较优势。 股指期权方面，各个品种市场成交额有所回升；品种成交量则涨跌互 现，多数品种以提升为主；而持仓量的变化总体有限。结合日内行情，我 们的推测是，短期市场波动加剧，但中期卖权交易思路依旧主导，期权 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance, showing a structural differentiation. The lithium carbonate futures limit - up became the market focus, and the precious metals sector was strong, while the coking coal and coke futures led the decline, and most energy - chemical products fell. The overall market fluctuations revolved around the reconstruction of the supply - demand of sub - industries and macro - risk sentiment [14]. - The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool, consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, industrial production rebounded unexpectedly, and the Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, with the interest - rate cut expectation postponed to June [14]. - In China, policies focused on new fields, exports showed unexpected resilience, corporate loans and bond financing in social financing data were stronger than seasonal, but real estate and infrastructure were weak due to seasonality, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - In the short term, there is a risk of continued adjustment of risk assets; in the medium term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 20, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4708.6, with a daily decline of 0.5%, a weekly decline of 0.31%, and a monthly increase of 2.37%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had different price changes and fluctuations [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all showed certain price increases and fluctuations on January 20, 2026 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 99.0423, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and the US dollar mid - price decreased by 63 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 3.42 bp, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield decreased by 0.31 bp [2]. 3.2 Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 20, 2026, different industries had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, the non - ferrous metals industry had a monthly increase of 12.65%, while the defense and military industry had a daily decline of 3.21% [5]. 3.3 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - On January 16, 2026, overseas commodities such as energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations. For example, NYMEX natural gas had a monthly decline of 16.22%, and COMEX silver had a monthly increase of 26.72% [8]. 3.4 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - Various domestic commodities such as crude oil, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemical products, and agricultural products had different price changes and fluctuations on January 20, 2026. For example, lithium carbonate had a daily increase of 8.93% and a monthly increase of 31.86% [11]. 3.5 Macro - Essentials - **Today's Market**: The domestic commodity futures market closed with a mixed performance. The rise of lithium carbonate was driven by the rise of energy - storage demand and the reversal of the supply - demand pattern, and precious metals were supported by geopolitical risks [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy expanded moderately, inflation cooled, consumption was "K - shaped", industrial production rebounded, and the Fed postponed the interest - rate cut expectation to June [14]. - **Domestic Macro**: Chinese policies focused on new fields, exports were resilient, social financing data showed strong corporate financing, but real estate and infrastructure were weak, and there were clear signs of inflation improvement [14]. - **Asset Views**: The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates in January, and the first interest - rate cut is postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while mid - term long positions in some assets are recommended [14]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, waiting for incremental funds; stock index options and treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [15]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe is expected to be volatile, focusing on factors such as shipping company's resumption of flights and cargo volume [15]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most basic metals are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies [18]. - **Agriculture**: Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, and some are expected to rise or decline in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policies [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are lackluster. The short - term disk is expected to continue its weak adjustment. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is still an expectation of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - Steel demand remains resilient, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The fundamentals have limited highlights. Recently, accidents in some steel mills have disturbed the supply side, and the cost support has weakened. The disk performance is poor. The inventory pressure of iron ore may continue to increase, and the disk is weakly adjusted. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, but the first round of price increases by coke enterprises has been postponed, and the disk is weakly declining. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the disk price [1][2] 3.2 Different Element Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Element - The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply side is still subject to disturbance expectations due to weather, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption has also increased, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 3.2.2 Carbon Element - The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal. As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot still has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals after the change of trading logic on the disk is limited [2] 3.3 Different Product Analysis 3.3.1 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The steel mill复产 rhythm has slowed down, the iron water output has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory level is moderately high. Later, there is still seasonal weakening pressure on demand, and the steel mill still has room for复产. There is still pressure to accumulate inventory on the steel side. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to be weakly adjusted [8] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the supply side is subject to disturbance expectations due to weather. The demand side has rigid support, and the steel mill restocking is in progress but the enthusiasm is weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The supply increase expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9] 3.3.3 Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased significantly, and the daily consumption has also increased. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The recent price of finished products is under pressure, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [10] 3.3.4 Coke - The cost side of coke has strong support, but the price increase implementation has been postponed due to the slight decrease in steel mill iron water output. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking starts, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal [12] 3.3.5 Coking Coal - The trading logic of the disk has changed, and it is weakly operating. The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The winter storage inventory of the mid - and downstream is gradually in place. As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the spot has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the disk is limited. It is expected to oscillate [13] 3.3.6 Glass - The supply is still subject to disturbance expectations, and the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.3.7 Soda Ash - The supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [14][16] 3.3.8 Manganese Silicon - The cost support of manganese silicon has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is large. The upside space of the disk price is limited, but the current disk price is at a low level, and excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [16] 3.3.9 Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. In the short term, the disk price is expected to follow the sector. The current price valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [17] 3.4 Index Information - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2414.16, down 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, down 0.34%. The steel industry chain index on January 20, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.28%, a decline of 2.75% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.05% in the past month, and a decline of 0.23% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, many products are expected to be in a state of shock, while in the long - term, the pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. - Overall, the supply of oilseeds (soybeans and rapeseeds) is relatively abundant, and the annual output of palm oil is high. Although it is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend, the overall situation of the oil market is complex[7]. - The protein meal market is affected by factors such as international soybean supply and domestic demand, and is expected to be in a state of shock[8]. - The corn market is in a state of tight balance, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short - term[9]. - The rubber market (both natural and synthetic) is expected to be in a state of shock, with different influencing factors[13][16]. - The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and gradually strengthen in the medium - to - long - term, while the sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[17][18]. - The pulp and double - gum paper markets are expected to be in a state of shock and weaken, and the log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[19][22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**: Export expectations drive the rebound of palm oil. The price of palm oil is strong, driving up the prices of soybean and rapeseed oils slightly. The supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively abundant, and the future supply expectations of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are different[7]. - **Logic**: For palm oil, the market expects good export data in Malaysia from January 1 - 20, but the domestic spot inventory is increasing, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment is insufficient. For soybean oil, the global soybean production and inventory are expected to increase, and the domestic market's acceptance of high prices is decreasing. For rapeseed oil, future supply expectations are turning loose, but the spot is still tight, and the near - end basis is relatively strong[7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to be in a state of shock, palm oil in a state of shock, and rapeseed oil in a state of shock and weaken[7]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**: Terminal stocking and point - pricing drive the rebound of double - meal prices at low levels[8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing of Argentine soybeans is nearly finished, and the US soybean demand is supported. The supply of overseas soybeans is expected to increase. Domestically, the low prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal attract downstream stocking, but the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact[8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to be in a state of shock. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal[8]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Corn is in a state of range - bound shock[8]. - **Logic**: The current fundamentals are in a tight balance. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the logistics is affected by snow. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a certain impact on prices. Policy grain auctions also affect the price[9]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to be in a state of shock[9]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**: Slaughterhouses' procurement slows down, and the spot and futures prices of live pigs decline[10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the early - January slaughter progress is slow, and secondary fattening has re - entered in some areas. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until April 2026. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand shows a slight weekly increase in slaughter volume, and there is a slight inventory accumulation[11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be in a state of shock. The industry is advised to focus on short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. 3.1.5. 沪胶与20号胶 - **观点**: The natural rubber market is in a state of wide - range shock[12]. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity adjustment trend, the rubber price is in a narrow - range shock, and the fundamentals have not changed much. It is mainly driven by macro factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream buying is weak after the price increase[13]. - **Outlook**: The natural rubber market is expected to be in a state of shock[13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**: The price is in a state of correction and adjustment, and the market is in a state of shock[16]. - **Logic**: After the previous price increase, there is no further upward momentum, but the downside space is limited. The mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged, mainly based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The price of butadiene has been rising recently[16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is still pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen in the medium - term[16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**: The price continues to adjust, and attention should be paid to the lower support[17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, due to the exhaustion of short - term benefits and the decline in positions, the cotton price has stopped rising. The fundamentals are generally good, but the increase in cotton yarn imports is a marginal negative factor. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise based on the expected tight supply and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang[17]. - **Outlook**: The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen[17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**: The sugar price is under pressure and closes down[18]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, and both domestic and international prices are under pressure. In the domestic market, the supply is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure during the northern hemisphere's listing period[18]. - **Outlook**: The sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**: The price of broad - leaf pulp continues to weaken, and the fundamentals have more concerns[19]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of pulp have not changed much, with both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the increase in import costs and the relatively low price difference between needle and broad - leaf pulp. The negative factors include the seasonal decline in demand, abundant supply in the spot market, and the weakening of the broad - leaf pulp price[19]. - **Outlook**: The pulp market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[19]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**: There are no major contradictions, and the price is in a low - level shock[20]. - **Logic**: The market is in a low - level shock, with stable production by large - scale paper enterprises and rational stocking by dealers. The demand is weak, and the price increase is difficult to pass on to the downstream[22]. - **Outlook**: The double - gum paper market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**: The price of the log futures contract continues to decline, and the valuation has entered a deep - water area[23]. - **Logic**: The log futures contract has declined with increasing positions, and the short - term is dominated by bears. The valuation has entered a low - value area, and the downward space is relatively limited. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the delivery situation has changed. The spot price in the Jiangsu market is rising due to tight supply[23]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[23]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 No specific data analysis or summary content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2414.16, a decrease of 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, a decrease of 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, a decrease of 0.34%[184]. - The agricultural product index on January 20, 2026, was 934.25, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a decline of 1.15% in the past 5 days, an increase of 2.39% in the past month, and an increase of 0.13% since the beginning of the year[186].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-21 避险情绪持续⾼涨，⾦价强势拉升 据央视新闻报道，当地时间20⽇，特朗普再次强调美国要拥有格陵兰岛； 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩随即在世界经济论坛表态，丹⻨及格陵兰岛领⼟ 主权和完整不容谈判。市场避险情绪持续⾼涨，万得数据显⽰，⽇内海内 外⾦价上涨均超1%，涨幅明显⾼于⽩银。同⽇，上期所发布通知，宣布 ⾃ 1 ⽉ 22 ⽇收盘结算时调整⻩⾦、⽩银等期货合约保证⾦⽐例及涨跌停 板制度。此外，20⽇晚间，据财联社报道，波兰央⾏已批准购买150吨⻩ ⾦的计划。预计短线⻩⾦或延续震荡偏强运⾏，⽽短线⽩银波动率明显放 ⼤、或⾼位震荡运⾏，需警惕地缘问题上特朗普TACO⻛险。 黄金观点：短期或延续震荡偏强运行，警惕地缘问题上特朗普TACO风 险 逻辑：万得数据显示，受20日格陵兰岛相关局势紧张及关税威胁再度 升级影响，日内海内外金价均涨超1.5%，COMEX金价一度突破4750美 元。据央视新闻报道，当地时间20日，特朗普再次强调美国要拥有格 陵兰岛；欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩随即在世界经济论坛上表示，丹麦 及格陵兰岛领土主权和完整不 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum: Supply disruptions and rising geopolitical risks will cause platinum to continue to fluctuate. In the short term, the platinum price may continue to fluctuate. In the future, the supply side has risks, and the demand side is in a structural expansion stage. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate strongly [3]. - Palladium: Tariff expectations and rising geopolitical risks will cause palladium to continue to fluctuate. In the short term, the palladium price may maintain a wide - range fluctuation. Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage supports the price, and the palladium price has a certain bottom support [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Market Situation**: As of January 20, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 619.35 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 0.43% [2]. - **Main Logic**: South African floods may affect production and supply. Geopolitical and trade frictions are heating up, and the EU may counter Trump's tariff threat. The nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations for platinum and palladium are also key factors. In the future, South Africa still has power supply and extreme weather risks on the supply side, and on the demand side, the automotive catalyst demand is stable, the hydrogen energy industry is a growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy and the macro - expectations are positive, so the platinum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Palladium - **Market Situation**: As of January 20, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 490 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 1.97% [2]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of a 50% tariff on palladium in the US was not fulfilled, and the price corrected. The US investigation report on Russian palladium has not been released, and the spot shortage supports the price. In the long - term, the supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, but in the short - term, the spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle provides bottom support [4]. - **Outlook**: The short - term spot shortage supports the palladium price, but in the medium - and long - term, it is restricted by weak fundamentals and low investment attributes, so the palladium price is expected to fluctuate [4]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2414.16, down 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, down 0.34% [50]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 20, 2026, was 2793.66, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a 5 - day decline of 2.04%, a 1 - month increase of 8.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.01% [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 20, most equity index futures declined, most CGB futures rose, and most commodities increased, with Lithium Carbonate, Silver, and Tin leading the gains [10][11][12]. - The price of Lithium Carbonate is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to bargain - hunting long opportunities driven by sentiment fluctuations [37][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On January 20, in equity index futures, IC dropped 1.0% and IH dropped 0.5%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.52% and T rose 0.13%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Lithium Carbonate (up 9.0% with 1.0% month - on - month open interest increase), Silver (up 3.6% with 3.7% month - on - month open interest decrease), and Tin (up 3.1% with 9.7% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were Coking Coal (down 4.5% with 6.0% month - on - month open interest increase), Coke (down 3.5% with 2.1% month - on - month open interest increase), and Glass (down 3.1% with 0.5% month - on - month open interest decrease) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Drop - **Coking Coal**: On January 20, it fell 4.5% to 1,124 yuan/ton. Supply is stable after the resumption of production in major coal - producing areas, and Mongolia coal imports have rebounded. Coke output has edged down, but coking enterprises' winter stockpiling has depleted upstream mine inventories. However, mid - and downstream enterprises have completed winter stockpiling, cooling the spot market [18][20][21]. - **Coke**: On January 20, it dropped 3.5% to 1,673 yuan/ton. The first - round price increase application by coking enterprises has not been responded to by steel mills, and the coking industry's losses are deepening. Steel mills' hot metal output has slightly declined, but their inventories are increasing steadily. Coking enterprises' shipments have improved [26][27][28]. 3.1.3 Daily Raise - **Lithium Carbonate**: On January 20, it rose 9.0% to 160,500 yuan/ton. The market trend is dominated by capital sentiment and policy changes. The adjustment of export tax rebate policies has strengthened short - term demand expectations. There are risks of phased disruptions to supply, and the marginal demand has weakened slightly but with good long - term expectations. Inventory has shifted from de - stocking to accumulation. Overall, the price is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern [33][34][36]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The NDRC will implement a more pro - active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy. The MOF stated that in 2026, the fiscal expenditure intensity will be maintained at an increasing level, and in 2025, the newly - added government debt scale reached 11.86 trillion yuan, a year - on - year rise of 2.9 trillion yuan [43][44][45]. 3.2.2 Industry News - The NDRC will research and formulate regulations for the development of a unified national market and release three key lists to clarify local governments' actions in promoting economic development [48].

More English Reports on CITIC Futures Insights：https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights Abstract 摘要 Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026-01-21 One-Stop Guide for QFII Application Procedures 合格境外投资者审批流程指南 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No.：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 At the Lujiazui Forum on Jun 18, 2025, Wu Qing, Chairman of the CSRC, stated that the CSRC would "issue an optimized p ...

台湾FCFC2号重启,沙特装置故障短停 2026/01/20 伊 尹伊君 从业资格号:F03107980 究 投资咨询号: Z0021451 品 台湾FCFC2号装置重启,沙特装置故障短停。根据卓创及计算,截至2026年1月19日,海外苯乙烯开工 73.2%,环比-0.9pct,同比-7.8pct,处于近五年同比偏低水平。台湾FCFC2号35万吨装置于2025年11月中 停工、已经于2026年1月中旬重启。沙特55万吨苯乙烯装置1月15日意外短停,原计划3月或4月检修正常进 行。 全球苯乙烯开工处于偏低水平。截至2026年1月19日,全球苯乙烯开工72.0%,环比-0.5pct,同比- 7.4pct,处于近六年同期最低水平。 风险提示: 宏观政策落地效果不及预期;纯苯进口偏离预期;装置预期外检修或恢复:油价波动。 | 100% | -2021 | -2022 | -2023 | 元/吨 | -2021 | -2022 | -2023 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ARA | 2024 | -2025 | -2026 | 3500 D ...