1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - As the traditional peak season nears its end, the industry's terminal demand support is expected to weaken further. Future market price increases will rely more on policies and the macro - level. It is necessary to continue to monitor the possibility of positive signals from the macro and policy fronts [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron and Steel and Related Products 3.1.1 Steel - Core logic: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade relations persists, cost - side support is loosening, and the futures market is weak. Spot market transactions are generally weak, with low speculative interest. Iron - water production is decreasing from a high level, electric - furnace profits are poor, and steel mills are conducting some maintenance and production conversions. After the National Day holiday, demand recovery is limited. With high supply, the inventory of five major steel products has increased significantly, and the fundamentals are weak [6]. - Outlook: Steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamentals are lackluster. Considering increased overseas risks, short - term futures prices are expected to face pressure. However, due to potential positive signals from the end - of - October meeting and the difficulty of a trend - like decline in costs under high iron - water production, the downside space is limited [6]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: Spot market prices have fallen significantly. Overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has increased significantly. The demand - side iron - water production is still at a high level, and some steel mills plan to replenish inventory after the holiday. Port inventory has increased, and overall inventory pressure is not prominent [6]. - Outlook: There is still support for the rigid demand for iron ore, short - term supply is generally stable, and fundamental pressure is not significant. However, macro - level disturbances and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations limit the upside space, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [7]. 3.1.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered this week, approaching the same - period level in previous years. Demand has decreased as finished - product prices are under pressure and electric - furnace profits are poor. Inventory has decreased slightly during the holiday [8]. - Outlook: With insufficient fundamental drivers, scrap - steel prices are expected to follow finished - product prices in the short term [8]. 3.2 Carbon - Related Products 3.2.1 Coke - Core logic: The futures market is under pressure and oscillating. On the spot side, supply is temporarily stable, demand is supported by iron - water production, and overall inventory is at a low level. The price of coke is in a stalemate between rising and falling due to the game between coking plants and steel mills [9]. - Outlook: With rigid demand support, limited supply growth, and a healthy short - term fundamental situation, coke prices are expected to remain stable in the future [9]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal - Core logic: The futures market is under pressure and oscillating. Supply is generally stable, but imports are affected by some factors. Demand is supported by coke production, and inventory is at a low level. Spot prices are oscillating steadily [10]. - Outlook: After coal mines return to pre - holiday production levels, there is limited room for output growth. Import recovery will take time, and with high short - term coke production, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Considering the warm macro - environment, prices are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.3 Other Products 3.3.1 Glass - Core logic: With the approaching of important domestic meetings, the supply side has limited changes. Demand is in the peak season, but due to large intermediate - level inventory and limited restocking ability, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The upstream is facing pressure to increase inventory and reduce prices [11]. - Outlook: After the National Day holiday, production and sales are poor, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to decline [11]. 3.3.2 Soda Ash - Core logic: Supply is still high, and demand is stable with some differences between heavy and light soda ash. The industry is in a bottom - clearing stage, and upstream inventory is expected to increase. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - Outlook: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. Prices are expected to oscillate widely following macro - changes, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [13]. 3.3.3 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The terminal steel - using demand peak season is lackluster, and the manganese - silicon futures market has followed the black - goods sector. The first - round inquiry price has decreased, and the market is waiting and watching. Cost - side prices have slightly declined, demand is resilient, but supply is at a high level, and inventory - reduction difficulty is increasing [14]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak - season demand, and policy expectations support prices, but due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations, the price center may decline after the peak season [14]. 3.3.4 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The terminal steel - using demand in the peak season is weak, and the ferrosilicon futures market has followed the black - goods sector. The first - round inquiry price has decreased, and market confidence is low. Supply is at a high level, and inventory - reduction difficulty is increasing. Demand from steel mills is resilient, but the metal - magnesium market is oversupplied [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak - season demand, and policy expectations support prices, but as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser, prices may decline after the peak season [15].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly lower, with non-metallic building materials leading the decline [1] 2. Asset Performance 2.1 Equity Index Futures - CSI 300 futures: Current price 4507.2, daily decline of 1.21%, weekly decline of 1.85%, monthly decline of 2.40%, quarterly decline of 2.40%, and annual increase of 14.95% [2] - SSE 50 futures: Current price 2958.4, daily decline of 0.11%, weekly decline of 0.58%, monthly decline of 1.02%, quarterly decline of 1.02%, and annual increase of 10.47% [2] - CSI 500 futures: Current price 7010, daily decline of 3.06%, weekly decline of 3.52%, monthly decline of 3.85%, quarterly decline of 3.85%, and annual increase of 23.13% [2] - CSI 1000 futures: Current price 7145.8, daily decline of 2.19%, weekly decline of 2.65%, monthly decline of 3.52%, quarterly decline of 3.52%, and annual increase of 22.18% [2] 2.2 Bond Futures - 2-year treasury bond futures: Current price 102.38, daily increase of 0.01%, weekly increase of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.01%, quarterly increase of 0.01%, and annual decline of 0.57% [2] - 5-year treasury bond futures: Current price 105.78, daily increase of 0.09%, weekly increase of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.14%, quarterly increase of 0.14%, and annual decline of 0.72% [2] - 10-year treasury bond futures: Current price 108.17, daily increase of 0.10%, weekly increase of 0.18%, monthly increase of 0.30%, quarterly increase of 0.30%, and annual decline of 0.69% [2] - 30-year treasury bond futures: Current price 114.76, daily increase of 0.28%, weekly increase of 0.69%, monthly increase of 0.76%, quarterly increase of 0.76%, and annual decline of 3.43% [2] 2.3 Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index: Current price 99.26, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.44%, monthly increase of 1.47%, quarterly increase of 1.47%, and annual decline of 8.50% [2] - EUR/USD: Current price 1.157, daily unchanged, weekly decline of 53 pips, monthly decline of 164 pips, quarterly decline of 164 pips, and annual increase of 1217 pips [2] - USD/JPY: Current price 152.31, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 0.76%, monthly increase of 2.96%, quarterly increase of 2.96%, and annual decline of 3.11% [2] - USD mid-price: Current price 7.1021, daily increase of 14 pips, weekly decline of 27 pips, monthly decline of 34 pips, quarterly decline of 34 pips, and annual decline of 863 pips [2] 2.4 Interest Rates - 7-day interbank pledged repo rate: Current rate 1.46%, daily unchanged, weekly increase of 9 bp, monthly increase of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 1 bp, and annual decline of 29 bp [2] - 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield: Current rate 1.84%, daily increase of 1.8 bp, weekly decline of 0.8 bp, monthly decline of 2.2 bp, quarterly decline of 2.2 bp, and annual increase of 0.2 bp [2] - 10Y US treasury bond yield: Current rate 4.05%, daily decline of 9 bp, weekly unchanged, monthly increase of 0.01 bp, quarterly decline of 11 bp, and annual decline of 50 bp [2] - US 10Y-2Y yield spread: Current spread 0.53%, daily decline of 1 bp, quarterly increase of 0.03 bp, quarterly decline of 3 bp, and annual increase of 20 bp [2] - 10Y breakeven inflation rate: Current rate 2.3%, daily decline of 4 bp, monthly unchanged, quarterly decline of 0.05 bp, quarterly decline of 6 bp, and annual decline of 1 bp [2] 2.5 Metals - Gold: Current price 938.98, daily increase of 1.23%, monthly increase of 7.39%, quarterly increase of 7.39%, and annual increase of 52.04% [2] - Silver: Current price 11533, daily increase of 0.02%, monthly increase of 5.63%, quarterly increase of 5.63%, and annual increase of 54.39% [2] - Copper: Current price 84410, daily decline of 0.83%, monthly increase of 1.56%, quarterly increase of 1.56%, and annual increase of 14.42% [2] - Aluminum: Current price 20860, daily decline of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.87%, quarterly increase of 0.87%, and annual increase of 5.46% [2] - Alumina: Current price 2805, daily decline of 0.53%, monthly decline of 2.20%, quarterly decline of 2.20%, and annual decline of 41.53% [2] - Zinc: Current price 22220, daily decline of 0.16%, monthly increase of 1.81%, quarterly increase of 1.81%, and annual decline of 12.73% [2] - Lead: Current price 120830, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly decline of 0.06%, quarterly decline of 0.06%, and annual decline of 3.14% [2] - Nickel: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Stainless steel: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Tin: Current price 280430, daily decline of 0.60%, monthly increase of 1.95%, quarterly increase of 1.95%, and annual increase of 14.53% [2] - Lithium carbonate: Current price 72680, daily increase of 0.55%, monthly decline of 0.16%, quarterly decline of 0.16%, and annual decline of 5.73% [2] - Industrial silicon: Current price 8520, daily decline of 3.24%, monthly decline of 1.39%, quarterly decline of 1.39%, and annual decline of 22.44% [2] - Rebar: Current price 3061, daily decline of 0.71%, monthly decline of 0.36%, quarterly decline of 0.36%, and annual decline of 7.49% [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Current price 3241, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 0.37%, quarterly decline of 0.37%, and annual decline of 5.18% [2] - Iron ore: Current price 782, daily decline of 2.80%, monthly increase of 0.19%, quarterly increase of 0.19%, and annual increase of 0.39% [2] - Coke: Current price 1654.5, daily increase of 0.73%, monthly increase of 1.94%, quarterly increase of 1.84%, and annual decline of 8.69% [2] - Coking coal: Current price 1153.5, daily increase of 0.65%, monthly increase of 2.44%, quarterly increase of 2.44%, and annual decline of 0.60% [2] - Ferrosilicon: Current price 5378, daily decline of 0.52%, monthly decline of 2.11%, quarterly decline of 2.11%, and annual decline of 14.03% [2] - Manganese silicon: Current price 5738, daily decline of 0.14%, monthly decline of 0.35%, quarterly decline of 0.35%, and annual decline of 5.78% [2] - Glass: Current price 1138, daily decline of 3.48%, monthly decline of 5.95%, quarterly decline of 5.95%, and annual decline of 14.24% [2] - Soda ash: Current price 1234, daily decline of 1.04%, monthly decline of 1.67%, quarterly decline of 1.67%, and annual decline of 13.89% [2] 2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Current price 448.6, daily decline of 1.12%, monthly decline of 6.48%, quarterly decline of 6.48%, and annual decline of 19.88% [2] - Fuel oil: Current price 2700, daily decline of 1.35%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 5.82%, and annual decline of 18.82% [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Current price 3203, daily decline of 0.90%, monthly decline of 6.13%, quarterly decline of 6.13%, and annual decline of 20.02% [2] - Asphalt: Current price 3290, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly decline of 3.91%, quarterly decline of 3.91%, and annual decline of 10.82% [2] - Methanol: Current price 2274, daily decline of 2.90%, monthly decline of 2.32%, quarterly decline of 2.32%, and annual decline of 15.87% [2] - PX: Current price 6338, daily decline of 1.43%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.35% [2] - PTA: Current price 4440, daily decline of 1.55%, monthly decline of 3.35%, quarterly decline of 3.35%, and annual decline of 9.24% [2] - Urea: Current price 1597, daily decline of 0.81%, monthly decline of 4.37%, quarterly decline of 4.37%, and annual decline of 6.44% [2] - Short fiber: Current price 6060, daily decline of 1.17%, monthly decline of 2.82%, quarterly decline of 2.82%, and annual decline of 11.22% [2] - Styrene: Current price 6544, daily decline of 2.18%, monthly decline of 4.26%, quarterly decline of 4.26%, and annual decline of 19.19% [2] - Ethylene glycol: Current price 4061, daily decline of 1.22%, monthly decline of 3.47%, quarterly decline of 3.47%, and annual decline of 16.20% [2] - PP: Current price 6602, daily decline of 1.36%, monthly decline of 3.65%, quarterly decline of 3.65%, and annual decline of 11.70% [2] - PVC: Current price 4692, daily decline of 0.61%, monthly decline of 3.04%, quarterly decline of 3.04%, and annual decline of 11.30% [2] - Caustic soda: Current price 2428, daily decline of 1.46%, monthly decline of 4.07%, quarterly decline of 4.07%, and annual decline of 16.48% [2] - Rubber: Current price 14845, daily decline of 0.64%, monthly decline of 1.23%, quarterly decline of 1.23%, and annual decline of 16.69% [2] - 20 rubber: Current price 106611, daily decline of 0.42%, monthly decline of 0.91%, quarterly decline of 0.91%, and annual decline of 19.61% [2] - Pulp: Current price 4846, daily increase of 0.08%, monthly increase of 0.25%, quarterly increase of 0.25%, and annual decline of 18.47% [2] 2.7 Agriculture - Soybean meal: Current price 2902, daily decline of 1.02%, monthly decline of 0.89%, quarterly decline of 0.89%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Soybean oil: Current price 8240, daily decline of 0.34%, monthly increase of 1.23%, quarterly increase of 1.23%, and annual increase of 6.85% [2] - Palm oil: Current price 9330, daily decline of 0.36%, monthly increase of 1.11%, quarterly increase of 1.11%, and annual increase of 7.64% [2] - Rapeseed oil: Current price 8664, daily decline of 0.63%, monthly decline of 0.85%, quarterly decline of 0.85%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Rapeseed meal: Current price 2348, daily decline of 1.84%, monthly decline of 3.02%, quarterly decline of 3.02%, and annual decline of 2.57% [2] - Cotton: Current price 13265, daily decline of 0.26%, monthly increase of 0.38%, quarterly increase of 0.38%, and annual decline of 1.70% [2] - Sugar: Current price 5397, daily decline of 1.33%, monthly decline of 1.75%, quarterly decline of 1.75%, and annual decline of 9.46% [2] - Live pigs: Current price 11450, daily increase of 2.92%, monthly decline of 7.32%, quarterly decline of 7.32%, and annual decline of 10.55% [2] - Eggs: Current price 2852, daily increase of 1.57%, monthly decline of 6.12%, quarterly decline of 6.12%, and annual decline of 15.62% [2] - Red dates: Current price 11110, daily decline of 0.18%, monthly increase of 2.68%, quarterly increase of 2.68%, and annual increase of 20.63% [2] - Apples: Current price 8664, daily increase of 0.30%, monthly increase of 0.55%, quarterly increase of 0.55%, and annual increase of 22.37% [2] - Peanuts: Current price 7864, daily decline of 0.48%, monthly increase of 1.29%, quarterly increase of 1.29%, and annual decline of 0.81% [2] - Corn: Current price 2093, daily increase of 0.05%, monthly decline of 2.33%, quarterly decline of 2.33%, and annual decline of 6.10% [2] 3. Macro Analysis 3.1 Overseas Macro - Focus on new tariff threats from Trump and marginal changes in the US government shutdown [5] - There is a risk of further escalation of conflicts before the APEC meeting at the end of October [5] - If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will weaken the "bad news is good news" logic and push up the recession risk [5] 3.2 Domestic Macro - China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies [5] - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Potential [5] - Crude Oil: Potential [5] - Silver: On hold [5] - Copper: On hold [5] - Lead: On hold [5] - Zinc: On hold [5] Core Viewpoints - Maintains the view that the RMB will remain stable with a slight upward trend in the second half of the year, with the downside space around 7.05. The impact of the latest tariff threats on the RMB is likely to be less. Focus on the appreciation opportunity in the fourth quarter [6] - Recommends going long on SHFE Gold and short on COMEX Gold due to the low valuation of the gold price spread and the potential negative impact of escalating trade frictions on the RMB [5] - Suggests going long on Brent crude oil and shorting SC crude oil as domestic port inventories remain high, refinery processing volumes are under pressure, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil is weak [5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the gold price differential fluctuated lower, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread declined. This week, recommends going long on the domestic - international gold price spread at a low level as the valuation of the gold price spread remains low and escalating trade frictions may weigh on the RMB [13][14] - **Silver**: Last week, the internal and external price spread of silver fluctuated downward, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread dropped sharply. This week, suggests waiting for the bullish opportunity after the situation eases as the short - term overseas price remains strong due to the shortage of London silver spot [20] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, Chinese copper inventories were de - stocked slowly, and the copper import profit window had a significant loss. This week, recommends gradually taking profit on the strategy of going long on LME copper and shorting SHFE copper [26] - **Aluminum**: Last week, the short - term domestic - international ratio remained range - bound with fluctuations, and the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [32][33] - **Zinc**: Last week, there was already a profit in the spot export of Chinese zinc ingots to Southeast Asia, and the delivery window for warehouse receipt submission in Southeast Asia was close to opening. This week, recommends closing the position of going long on LME zinc and shorting SHFE zinc [38] - **Lead**: Last week, previously affected recycled lead smelters resumed production, and as the delivery of the SHFE Lead 2510 approached, the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots was expected to increase. Overseas lead inventories started de - stocking again but remained at a high level. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [44][49] - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window was closed, with fluctuations within a numerical range, and the situation of extreme price differences improved significantly. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [50] - **Tin**: Last week, the tin ratio rebounded, the spot tin import window remained closed, the import loss was 19,251 yuan/ton, and the driving force behind the tin price spread was not obvious. This week, suggests temporarily observing cross - market arbitrage [54] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers. This week, recommends maintaining a wait - and - see attitude [60] Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price spread fluctuated. This week, recommends shorting SC and going long on Brent as China's inventories are at a high level, imports have slowed down since September, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil is weak. Hold the spread strategy during the contract rollover period and pay attention to freight risks [65][66] Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, import crushing margins were consolidating, and the Chinese market was expected to outperform ICE. This week, recommends short - term observation [71] - **Sugar**: Last week, import crushing margins edged lower, and the Chinese market was expected to outperform ICE in the medium to long term. This week, recommends short - term observation [75] - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there was little change, and the price spread remained stable. Globally, as the tapping season began, there was an expectation of increased supply, but the demand side showed no improvement. This week, recommends observation [78] Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the U.S. White House stated that refined copper was excluded from tariffs, which differed from market expectations, and the premium of COMEX copper over LME copper remained at a low level. This week, recommends observing the COMEX - LME copper arbitrage position [84] - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated. This week, recommends observation. Although OPEC+ is increasing production, the short - term medium and heavy crude oil may be supported by the profit of middle distillate refined oil, and the re - widening of the light - heavy oil price difference may need to wait. Pay attention to freight disturbances [89][90] - **Brent - WTI**: Last week, the Brent - WTI spread fluctuated. This week, recommends observation. The U.S. production remains resilient, and refined oil inventories are high, but the expected decline in U.S. production due to falling oil prices may support the U.S. fundamentals, and the spread will fluctuate [95][96] - **TTF - NYMEX NG M1**: Last week, the spread fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, both Europe and the U.S. are in the off - season for consumption, and freight performance is weak. This week, recommends short - term observation. In the medium term, the expected low temperature in north - western Europe in winter is stronger than that in the U.S., and the European inventory reserve adequacy rate is lower than that in the U.S., so the winter spread is expected to rise [99][100]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite Trump threatening to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and then signaling willingness to reach an agreement, the RMB exchange - rate implied volatility remained low, and the impact of this trade friction on the exchange - rate market was far lower than during the April reciprocal tariff period [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Reasons for the Stable Performance of the RMB - After the holiday, the domestic central parity rate was continuously raised, and the adjustment range of the counter - cyclical factor increased, sending a "stable exchange - rate" signal to support the RMB [2] - The US faces risks such as government shutdown and a weakening labor market, which may increase the US demand for an agreement, and the market has pre - digested this round of tariff friction [2] - The Sino - US swap points have further narrowed, reducing the impact of Carry on the RMB spot exchange rate [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - Methanol futures prices have fluctuated significantly recently, mainly due to intensified trading behavior on the futures market under the coexistence of inventory pressure, olefin drag, and Iranian disruptions. The current near - term fundamentals of methanol face significant pressure, but there are still expectations of overseas shutdowns in winter in the long - term. Considering short - term news, the long - short game on the futures market is intense, and investors are advised to be cautious and view it as a wide - range oscillation [3] Group 2: Summary by Related Content Fundamental Situation - As of October 9, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1543200 tons, an increase of 51000 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in the East China region increased by 47800 tons, and that in the South China region increased by 3200 tons. The port inventory is at the highest level in the past five years, and the domestic production facilities continue to operate at a relatively high rate, so short - term supply pressure still exists [3] Downstream Market - The prices of core downstream olefins have continued to decline due to Sino - US disturbances and weak oil prices, which is the main factor restricting methanol prices [3] International Situation - There are still disruptions from Iran. The US previously imposed sanctions on some Iranian vessels, including some methanol transport vessels. But early today, Trump's stance towards Iran changed, suggesting the possibility of lifting sanctions, which has short - term impacts on the futures market and significantly increases the volatility of methanol [3]

| | 董丹丹 | 杨家明 | 杨晓宇 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 从业资格号:F03142141 | 从业资格号:F3046931 | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 证监许可【2012】669号 | | 册 | 投资咨询号:Z0021744 | 投资咨询号:Z0015448 | 投资咨询号:Z0020561 | | | 分 | | | | | | | 陈子昂 | 尹伊君 | 李云旭 | 杨黎 | | | 从业资格号:F03108012 | 从业资格号:F03107980 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0021454 | 投资咨询号: Z0021451 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | 苯乙烯国内非一体化利润 苯乙烯国内开工 3500 -2020 -- 2021 -- 2023 -- 2024 2025 3000 100% 最新数据: 国内苯乙烯开工上升。截至2025年10月9日,国内苯乙烯开工率73.6%,环比+2.37pct ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The volatility of precious metals has increased, and while they are in a long - term bull market, short - term risks should be watched out for. Precious metals are in an annual - level bull market, with the decline of the US dollar credit as the core foundation, and they have long - term strategic allocation value [2][5]. 3. Summary Based on Content Price Performance - On October 14, gold and silver prices rose significantly and then fell. By the domestic market close, the gains of Shanghai gold and silver exceeded 2%. The intraday high of spot London gold reached $4179 per ounce, and that of spot London silver reached $53.5 per ounce. Since this week, the volatility of gold and silver prices has increased significantly, and the prices adjusted after the intraday high, showing a certain tail - end feature [4]. Driving Factors for the Uptrend Since August - After the deterioration of the non - farm payrolls data in early August, the negative factors suppressing precious metal prices were gradually digested, and the market shifted to a bull - dominated situation. On August 22, Fed Chairman Powell turned dovish at the Jackson Hole meeting, confirming the start of a new round of interest - rate cuts, and the rise of precious metals officially began. Since late August, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the risk of the Fed's independence have been the core driving factors for price increases. Elements such as the US government shutdown, repeated geopolitical conflicts, Japanese right - wing extremism, and the risk of trade friction escalation have also driven the prices up. In addition, the shortage of spot London silver has led to a rare premium in the spot price, and silver has shown greater elasticity [4]. Short - term Risks - After the National Day holiday, the price volatility has increased significantly, and short - term price fluctuation risks have intensified. The increase in volatility is often a tail - end feature of the phased uptrend of precious metals. Before October, the volatility of gold and silver was always low, and the price increase was relatively stable. After the National Day, the increase accelerated, and short - term adjustment risks should be noted. The impacts of the US government shutdown and the escalation of trade frictions are being gradually digested [5]. Long - term Outlook - Precious metals are still in a long - term bull market. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, there is still room for trading on the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and the risk of the Fed's independence due to personnel changes has not been eliminated, so the positive driving force from the interest - rate side remains. In the long run, factors such as the over - issuance of US debt, the lack of political and trade order under de - globalization, the decline in the intrinsic value of credit currency, the continuous increase in the value of physical currency, and the steady increase in the precious - metal holdings of central banks and ETFs will keep the price centers of gold and silver in a long - term upward channel [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 13, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose. Most commodities fell, with energy & chemicals performing weakly [2][10][13]. - China's exports increased by 7.1% and imports decreased by 0.2% in the first three quarters year-on-year [1][3][43][44]. - Gold may enter a high-level consolidation phase in the short term, and remains in a long-term bull market. Silver may continue its upward trend in the short term, and its mid-term price level is expected to move upward [21][22][23][24]. - Oil prices still show a downward trend. If tariff concerns do not improve, the short-term downward trend of oil prices is expected to continue; if tariff concerns ease or phased geopolitical risks emerge, oil prices will rebound accordingly, but the downward trend will still be hard to reverse [27][28][29]. - Glass prices are expected to mainly fluctuate in line with macroeconomic trends in the short term, and high inventories in the midstream and downstream sectors may suppress glass prices for forward-month contracts in the medium to long term [35][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On October 13, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose. Most commodities fell, with energy & chemicals performing weakly [10]. - The top three gainers of China's commodity futures are rapeseed, silver, and methanol, while the top three decliners are glass, LSFO, and synthetic rubber [11][12]. - Equity indices fell, with IF decreasing by 0.7%. CGB futures rose, among which TL increased by 0.4% [13]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Gold/Silver - On October 13, gold increased by 2.0% to 927.56 yuan/gram, and silver increased by 2.8% to 11531 yuan/kg [18][23]. - Gold may enter a high-level consolidation phase in the short term. In the long term, it remains in a long-term bull market. Silver may continue its upward trend in the short term, and its mid-term price level is expected to move upward [19][20][21][22][23][24]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Crude Oil - On October 13, crude oil decreased by 2.7% to 453.7 yuan/barrel. Oil prices still show a downward trend [27][29]. - Fundamental pressures persist, geopolitical support is marginally weakening, and macro risks are intensifying again. If tariff concerns do not improve, the short-term downward trend of oil prices is expected to continue; if tariff concerns ease or phased geopolitical risks emerge, oil prices will rebound accordingly, but the downward trend will still be hard to reverse [27][28][29]. 3.1.3.2 Glass - On October 13, glass decreased by 3.7% to 1179 yuan/ton [34][40][41]. - Short-term demand is seasonally recovering, but long-term demand lacks upward flexibility. Recently, industrial contradictions have been limited, and glass prices are expected to mainly fluctuate in line with macroeconomic trends. In the medium to long term, high inventories in the midstream and downstream sectors may suppress glass prices for forward-month contracts [35][40]. - The resumption of U.S. tariff hikes on China has a limited impact on glass supply and demand, but it may make the overall macro atmosphere relatively pessimistic, leading to a decline in the macro premium of glass futures prices [39][40]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Canadian provincial governments call for the removal of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [43][44]. - China's goods trade import and export reached 33.61 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, up 4% year-on-year. Among them, exports reached 19.95 trillion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year; imports stood at 13.66 trillion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year [43][44]. - The Dutch government will impose restrictive measures on Nexperia under Wingtech Technology, and China responds by opposing the overgeneralization of the concept of "national security" and discriminatory practices [43][44]. 3.2.2 Industry News - Multiple banks execute the first batch of cross-border bond repurchase transactions, with the trading volume on the first day reaching 5.8 billion yuan. The cross-border RMB repurchase market is expected to achieve steady growth in scale and activity, marking China's bond market moving towards a deeper "rule- and system-based" opening-up [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The threat of Trump's tariffs has a negative impact, but the marginal negative impact is weakening. The potential incremental stimulus policy can partially offset the negative impact of the tariff policy. In the short - to - medium term, the supply and demand of basic metals are expected to tighten, which supports the prices. One can continue to cautiously focus on the opportunities of low - buying and long - holding for copper, aluminum, and tin. When the copper - to - aluminum ratio returns above 4, one can pay special attention to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price increase. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin is still subject to disturbances, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices will decline in the short term. In the long term, copper prices may show a pattern of fluctuating upwards. - **Analysis**: Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting from November 1st, and the US government "shut down". In September, the output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month. As of October 13th, the copper inventory increased, and the strike risk of a copper mine increased. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the processing fees are at a low level. The cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, and the output of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The terminal demand is in the peak season, and the downstream stocking willingness may increase [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price of alumina is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the price of alumina in various regions decreased or remained stable. Some refineries are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is high, and the inventory is strongly accumulating. The decline of ore long - term contracts in the fourth quarter is limited, which restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea's disturbances will have a great impact on prices [8]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price fluctuates. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the medium term, the price center may move up. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. Trump's tariff threat was later eased. Some replacement capacities are being put into production, the operating capacity and the start - up rate are high. The demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the price fluctuates. In the short term, one can participate in cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the spread between ADC12 and AOO increased. The supply start - up rate increased marginally, and the demand improved marginally. The 9 - month automobile sales were resilient, and the inventory continued to accumulate [11][13]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price fluctuates with non - ferrous metals. In the short term, it may fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is still room for decline. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the spot zinc price was at a discount. As of October 13th, the zinc inventory increased. A mine's production was delayed, and the zinc ore supply was temporarily loose. The refinery's profitability was good, and the demand was in the off - peak to peak season transition period [13][14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: The inventory decreased slightly, and the lead price fluctuated at a high level. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the price of lead remained stable, and the inventory decreased. After the holiday, the production of recycled lead enterprises gradually recovered, and the demand for lead - acid batteries increased [15][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The LME nickel inventory exceeded 240,000 tons, and the nickel price fluctuated widely. In the short term, it will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, it is to be observed. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic and global inventories increased. Indonesia plans to build a number of nickel - related projects, and a nickel - iron factory in Brazil increased its production capacity. The market sentiment dominates, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally [17][19]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel - iron price weakened, and the stainless - steel price decreased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel - iron price weakened, and the chromium price was relatively stable. The stainless - steel output increased in September, and the inventory accumulated [20][21]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: There are still supply constraints, and the tin price fluctuates. - **Analysis**: On October 13th, the tin inventory decreased, and the price decreased. During the National Day, there were continuous supply disturbances in tin. The supply of refined tin in the world is tightening, and the domestic tin ore supply is tight. The processing fees of tin concentrate are at a low level, and the start - up rate of refined tin is low [22]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the sub - items of different varieties for monitoring, but no specific monitoring content is provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2525.09, up 0.17%; the industrial products index was 2211.57, down 0.64% [149]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 13th was 2448.42, with a daily decline of 0.80%, a 5 - day increase of 1.73%, a 1 - month increase of 2.55%, and an increase of 6.07% since the beginning of the year [151].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold reached a new all - time high of $4070 per ounce, and silver broke through the $50 mark and remained strong. The escalation of Sino - US trade friction and the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year created a resonance, and the continuation of the US government shutdown and data vacuum intensified the demand for hedging and allocation. Although the short - term sentiment is bullish, the risk of high - level fluctuations has increased [1]. - If risk events continue to ferment, the prices of gold and silver are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. London gold is expected to trade in the range of [3900 - 4200] dollars per ounce, and London silver in the range of [48 - 55] dollars per ounce [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports from November 1st and restrict the export of key software. China warned of counter - measures. The market is still worried about the uncertainty of the negotiations around the APEC meeting [2]. - The US government shutdown has entered its third week, and the congressional budget negotiation has reached a deadlock. The Senate plans to resume voting on Tuesday, and the unpaid leave of some federal employees has caused fiscal implementation risks [2]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been strengthened. The CME FedWatch shows that the probabilities of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in October and December are 96% and 87% respectively. New York Fed President Williams reiterated support for further interest rate cuts this year to address labor market weakness [2]. - Trump said that if Russia does not "compromise" soon, he will consider providing "tactical cruise missiles" to Ukraine. Russia warned that this would lead to an "uncontrollable escalation" of the situation, and geopolitical risk aversion sentiment has increased [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - **Gold**: The resonance of trade friction and loose expectations has pushed up the gold price. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the decline of the US dollar, and the US fiscal deadlock jointly support the price. The government shutdown has weakened the availability of economic data, and the market continues to chase the rise in the sentiment of "no data is bullish". If there is a correction due to short - term technical overbought, $4000 is the primary support level, and the increase in price volatility may lead to phased profit - taking [3]. - **Silver**: Supported by the structural tightness of the London spot market, the lease rate remains high, and the physical premium is obvious. The abundant overall liquidity of precious metals and the short - squeeze effect make the increase of silver relatively ahead of gold. If the volatility significantly increases, one should be vigilant about the correction risk after the short - term increase in volatility. In the long - term, it is still supported by global de - dollarization and the recovery of industrial demand [3]. 3.3 Market Performance of Indexes - On October 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2232.76, down 0.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2520.82, down 0.80%; the industrial products index was 2225.76, down 0.58% [43]. - The precious metals index on October 10, 2025: the daily decline was 1.21%, the increase in the past 5 days was 4.99%, the increase in the past month was 11.25%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 43.23% [45].