Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The exchange's position limits have curbed the previous market excitement, leading to a correction in lithium prices. However, the demand for lithium carbonate remains resilient, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The supply - demand situation in December is expected to continue the tight pattern. The report maintains a bullish view and suggests buying on dips [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 21, the price of lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, with the main contract falling by over 8% to the range of 91,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. This is mainly due to the cooling of the previous high - pitched market sentiment [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an increase in handling fees for some lithium carbonate contracts and set stricter single - day opening limits after the market closed on November 20. Starting from the trading time on November 24, the handling fees for LC2001 contracts will be adjusted to 0.032% of the trading amount, and for LC2602 - LC2605 contracts to 0.016%. The single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients will be restricted, with no more than 500 lots for LC2001 contracts and no more than 2,000 lots for LC2602 - LC2606 contracts [2]. - This week, the de - stocking rate of lithium carbonate has slightly slowed down. As of November 20, the social inventory of lithium carbonate was 118,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,062 tons (- 1.7%). The upstream and downstream inventories continued to decline, while the inventory in other links increased [2]. Fundamental Situation - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate remains optimistic. The de - stocking trend is expected to continue from November to December. Downstream consumption is active, and the production schedules in November and December are still supported. The possibility of a short - term sharp decline is small. Terminal demand is also strong, with policies such as "replacing old with new" and purchase tax reduction supporting the production and sales of new energy vehicles at the end of the year, and the improvement of energy storage economy driving the construction of new energy storage projects. However, the demand in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [3]. - Supply: As of November 20, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was about 22,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 565 tons (+ 2.7%). In October, 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate were imported, a month - on - month increase of 21.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The supply is still on the rise. The resumption progress of small - scale lithium mines needs to be closely monitored [3]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the social inventory was 118,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,062 tons (- 1.7%). The upstream inventory was 26,000 tons (- 8% week - on - week), the downstream inventory was 44,000 tons (- 9% week - on - week), and the inventory in other links was 48,000 tons (+ 10% week - on - week) [3]. Summary and Strategy - Summary: The exchange's position limits have curbed the market sentiment, causing a correction in lithium prices. But the demand for lithium carbonate is still strong, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The supply - demand situation in December is expected to remain tight [4]. - Strategy: Maintain a bullish view and consider buying on dips when prices fall [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains largely unchanged, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. Investors are advised to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase allocations appropriately if there is a certain degree of correction in the fourth quarter [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The core drivers of major assets this week are the "anticipatory overshoot" after the restart of the US government and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. After the release of the "delayed" US September non - farm payroll data, both non - farm employment and the unemployment rate exceeded expectations, but the market seemed to focus on the weaker unemployment data, causing US stocks to open high and close low with a significant decline [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, economic data continued the weak and stable trend, and the boost of incremental policies to the fundamentals was not yet evident. Affected by factors such as the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak fund arrival, rhythmic decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow slightly but remained resilient. The 500 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan local government's unused quota withdrawn in October are expected to take effect as early as the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year in October, and the financial data generally met expectations [8]. 2. Asset Performance 2.1 Financial Assets - **Stock Index Futures**: Include CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures. They showed varying degrees of decline on a daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly basis, but had significant increases this year, with increases ranging from 12.12% to 24.19% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures also had different performance trends. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a 0.00% daily change, and a - 0.50% change this year [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index, euro - US dollar, US dollar - yen, and US dollar central parity rate all had their own change rates, with the US dollar - yen having a 0.7% increase this year [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, and 10Y US treasury bond yield had corresponding changes, for example, the 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by about 45 bp this year [3]. 2.2 Industry Indexes - **Domestic Industries**: Industries such as construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals showed different degrees of increase, while industries like food and beverage, and computers had varying degrees of decline. For example, the non - ferrous metals industry had a 33.74% increase this year, while the food and beverage industry had a - 4.32% change [4]. 2.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil, ICE Brent crude oil, and other energy commodities had different performance. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil had an 18.24% decline this year, while NYMEX natural gas had a 28.59% increase [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and COMEX silver both had significant increases this year, with increases of 54.46% and 71.92% respectively [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper and LME aluminum also showed different trends, with LME copper having a 21.69% increase this year [4]. 2.4 Domestic Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe route had a - 27.74% change this year [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver in the domestic market also had different performance, with silver having a 61.31% increase this year [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals had their own trends, for example, copper had a 16.75% increase this year [5]. 3. Sector and Variety Analysis 3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is in a state of "trading time for space" with a dumbbell - style allocation transition. Facing the problem of insufficient incremental funds, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The strategy is mainly based on covered call defense. Due to the possible insufficient liquidity in the options market, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The impact of the capital market may be limited. Affected by factors such as unexpected incremental policies, unexpected stock market rises, and unexpected monetary policies, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Affected by factors such as the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe Route**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, the loading is under pressure and lacks upward momentum. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, the spot price is firm, and the trading volume is marginally weakening. Pay attention to factors such as the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron ore production, and the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Coke**: The profit has been repaired, and the spot price is temporarily stable. Affected by factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: After the restart of the US government, the copper price is consolidating at a high level. Affected by factors such as supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, and unexpected Fed policies, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price has corrected. Affected by factors such as macro - risks, supply disruptions, and unexpected demand, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [9]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12]. - **LPG**: The refinery's external supply volume has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Affected by cost - related factors such as crude oil and overseas propane, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12]. 3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The strength of US soybean oil has boosted the domestic soybean and palm oil markets. Affected by factors such as US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [12]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of state reserves release is strong, and the futures market has reduced positions and declined. Affected by factors such as weather, domestic demand, and trade frictions, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound and high - elasticity oscillation, with no clear trend in the short term, and the spread - widening strategy of RU - NR has basically ended [1][2][15]. - The sentiment in the oil market weakened due to the fluctuating expectations of the US biodiesel policy, and the market will face a game of multiple long and short factors in the future, with all types of oils expected to oscillate [7]. - In the protein meal market, the US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly, and the domestic continuous meal is also expected to oscillate strongly, influenced by factors such as South American weather and Chinese procurement [8]. - The corn and starch market will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the game between selling pressure after freezing and inventory building [8][9]. - The pig market has an abundant supply of pigs, with prices running weakly in the short term and a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern in the long term [11]. - The synthetic rubber market has a stable atmosphere and the disk continues to oscillate. Before the butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to short at high prices [16][17]. - The cotton price has limited upward and downward space, with a short - term callback risk and a long - term tendency to oscillate strongly [17]. - The sugar price is under increasing supply pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [18]. - The pulp market is mainly driven by funds, with the futures market showing a wide - range oscillation [19]. - The double - gum paper market is driven by limited tender support and will oscillate [20]. - The log market has a low valuation and will fluctuate at a low level [22][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils - **View**: The sentiment in the oil market weakened due to the fluctuating expectations of the US biodiesel policy. - **Logic**: The US biodiesel policy expectations are fluctuating, the macro - environment is complex, and the industrial situation shows that the US soybean harvest is nearing completion, the Brazilian and Argentine soybean plantings are progressing, and the domestic and international supply and demand situations vary. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate [7]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: In the South American weather market, US soybeans are stronger than the continuous meal. - **Logic**: Globally, the South American soybean planting is affected by La Nina, the US soybean planting area is expected to expand, and the export is under pressure. Domestically, the soybean import profit is deteriorating, and the supply pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and continuous meal will oscillate strongly [8]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The oscillation market continues, and attention should be paid to the game between selling pressure after freezing and inventory building. - **Logic**: The supply side has a slow selling rhythm due to cold weather, and the demand side has concentrated demand in the Northeast. There is also import corn auction. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [8][9]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and the prices are running weakly. - **Logic**: In the short term, the scale - farm's daily average slaughter volume may increase at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is being reduced. The demand is affected by temperature, and the inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillation and weakening, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Maintain the range - bound pattern. - **Logic**: The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, the raw material price is firm but may fall, the demand has not changed significantly, and the RU has greater selling pressure than NR. - **Outlook**: Continue to maintain a wide - range and high - elasticity oscillation, with no trend in the short term [1][15]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market atmosphere is stable, and the disk continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The BR's rise is affected by overseas device news. The butadiene supply is abundant, and the downstream buying is cautious. The market has a short - term bottom support. - **Outlook**: Before the butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions, short at high prices [16][17]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price has limited upward and downward space. - **Logic**: The previous bullish factors have been digested, the production expectation is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weakening. - **Outlook**: Short - term callback risk, long - term tendency to oscillate strongly [17]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price continues to weaken. - **Logic**: The new sugar in the Northern Hemisphere is being squeezed, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the new season. - **Outlook**: Oscillation and weakening in the medium and long term [18]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The disk price has dropped significantly, which is still affected by the inflow and outflow of funds. - **Logic**: The futures drive the spot, the long - position funds are leaving, and there is a clear position - shifting phenomenon. The supply and demand are both high, and there is no serious contradiction. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [19]. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **View**: The tender support is limited, and the double - gum paper oscillates. - **Logic**: The paper mills want to maintain prices, the downstream demand is rigid, the tender price is low, and the cost support is general. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [20]. 3.1.11 Logs - **View**: The valuation is low, and the disk fluctuates at a low level. - **Logic**: The supply will increase in December and the long - term pressure exists. The demand is weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026. - **Outlook**: Low - level oscillation [22][23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring No specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index is 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial product index is 2200.99, down 0.68%. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On November 20, 2025, the agricultural product index is 924.06, with a daily decline of 0.52%, a 5 - day decline of 1.46%, a 1 - month decline of 0.45%, and a year - to - date decline of 3.21% [183][185].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Thursday's precious metal prices fluctuated. After significant weakening in July and August, the number of new non - farm jobs in September rebounded more than expected, but the unemployment rate rose simultaneously. The Fed's data - dependent style further reduces the probability of a December interest rate cut, but long - term interest rate cut expectations remain optimistic due to the negative impact of the government shutdown [1][3] - In the long term, the upward trend of precious metals remains. The over - issuance of debt and de - globalization, as the core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit, have not reversed. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - In September, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000, far exceeding the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, the highest since 2021. The average hourly wage increased by 3.8% year - on - year. These data strengthen the position of hawkish members of the FOMC [2] - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 220,000, lower than the expected 230,000. The four - week average was 224,250. The number of continued jobless claims from November 8 was 1,974,000, slightly higher than the expected 1,960,000 [2] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in November was - 1.7, lower than the expected 2. The employment index was 6, and the price acquisition index was 17.7 [2] 3.2 Price Logic - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains. Gold is a hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from spill - over effects. In 2026, the global economic shift is favorable for silver's elasticity [3] - The expected price range for spot London gold is [3800, 4200] US dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver is [46, 53] US dollars per ounce [3] 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 20, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index was 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial products index was 2200.99, down 0.68% [42] - The precious metals index on November 20, 2025 was 3328.49, with a daily decline of 0.57%, a 5 - day decline of 2.27%, a 1 - month increase of 0.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 50.45% [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is expected to continue oscillating, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern. The geopolitical premium of crude oil is expected to keep fluctuating, and the supply pressure persists. [3][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - Market news: Iran has raised its combat readiness level; a Venezuelan crude oil upgrading unit has stopped operating; Singapore's medium and light distillate inventories have reached multi - week highs. [6] - Main logic: After the release of non - farm data, the overseas risk appetite weakened. The geopolitical concerns have diminished, but the risks related to Russia and Venezuela are still hard to disprove, causing the geopolitical premium to swing. The alleviation of refined oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads provide phased support to oil prices. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production due to the supply surplus, but the current oversupply situation remains unchanged, so the price will oscillate. [7] 3.2 Performance and Outlook of Each Variety - **Asphalt**: On November 20, 2025, the main asphalt futures closed at 3058 yuan/ton. The price oscillated widely. OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, and the geopolitical situation has eased, causing the asphalt price to first fall below 3000 yuan/ton and then rise. The high absolute price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts. [8][9] - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: On November 20, 2025, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2517 yuan/ton. The price was driven down by the expectation of a Russia - Ukraine framework agreement. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the crack spread is continuously weak. Geopolitical upgrades will have a short - term impact on prices, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine situation. [8] - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: On November 20, 2025, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3139 yuan/ton. It followed the sharp decline of diesel. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil. [10] - **PX**: On November 20, the CFR China Taiwan price was 831(+4) dollars/ton. The price was affected by frequent speculation in oil blending, and its profitability was maintained under the support of polyester demand. In the short term, it will be significantly affected by market sentiment and funds, and the price is expected to oscillate. [11] - **PTA**: On November 20, the spot price was 4633(-7) yuan/ton. The fundamentals improved marginally due to longer - than - expected device maintenance and the support of downstream polyester demand. The price will oscillate with costs, and the TA01 - 05 reverse spread position can be temporarily withdrawn for observation. [11] - **Pure benzene**: On November 20, the 2603 contract closed at 5596 yuan, up 1.14%. The price rebounded after a decline, driven by US aromatic oil blending. The game between expectations and reality will repeatedly dominate the market, leading to an oscillating and chaotic market. [11][12] - **Styrene**: On November 20, the East China spot price was 6580(+70) yuan/ton. The price rebounded and then oscillated. The driving force for going long is difficult to confirm, and the short - selling space is limited. The price will be affected by oil - blending news and the pressure on pure benzene. [13] - **Ethylene glycol (MEG)**: On November 20, the main contract 2601 closed at 3822 yuan, down 2.05%. The price is weakly operating due to the medium - term inventory accumulation pressure. The rebound height is limited, and it will maintain a low - level oscillating and weak operation. [15][17] - **Polyester staple fiber**: On November 20, the Zhejiang market spot price rose 15 yuan to 6310 yuan/ton. The price passively followed the upstream. The export demand is strong, and the price will oscillate with the upstream, with the processing fee expected to be compressed. [18][19] - **Polyester bottle chips**: On November 20, the main contract closed at 5682 yuan/ton (-64 yuan/ton). The supply - demand drive is limited, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger downward support. [20] - **Methanol**: On November 20, the low - end spot price in Taicang was 1985 yuan/ton. The price oscillated at a low level due to high inventory and insignificant overseas disturbances. In the short term, it will have a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for overseas disturbance information. [22] - **Urea**: On November 20, the high - end and low - end prices in the Shandong market were 1650(+20) yuan/ton and 1630(+10) yuan/ton respectively. The price oscillated in a narrow range. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is supported. The market sentiment is uncertain, and the price may reverse its upward trend. [22] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: On November 20, the spot mainstream price was 6850 yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The support from its own fundamentals is limited, and the profit support is also limited. It will oscillate in the short term. [23][24] - **PP**: On November 20, the East China PP拉丝 mainstream transaction price was 6430(-20) yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The self - fundamental support is limited, and attention should be paid to the changes in device maintenance. It will oscillate in the short term. [24][25] - **PL**: On November 20, the low - end market price in Shandong was 5900 yuan/ton. The price oscillated. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It will oscillate in the short term. [26] - **PVC**: On November 20, the East China calcium carbide - based PVC benchmark price was 4500(-30) yuan/ton. The price may be anchored to production cuts due to high inventory. The fundamentals are pessimistic, and the market will be cautiously weak, with attention paid to marginal device dynamics. [27] - **Caustic soda**: On November 20, the Shandong 32% caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2438 yuan/ton. The price oscillated with weak supply - demand and low valuation. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost, and the price will have a wide - range oscillation. [28] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, etc., including the latest values and changes. [33] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The report shows the basis, basis changes, and warehouse receipt quantities of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [34] - **Inter - variety spread**: The report presents the inter - variety spreads of combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., along with their changes. [35] 3.4 Index Performance - **Comprehensive index**: The commodity index was 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index was 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial product index was 2200.99, down 0.68%. [276] - **Energy index**: On November 20, 2025, the energy index was 1140.78, with a daily decline of 1.49%, a 5 - day decline of 0.74%, a 1 - month decline of 1.34%, and a year - to - date decline of 7.10%. [278]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the stock index futures market, use a dumbbell structure to cope with the market. The market is expected to be under pressure and stable before the main line becomes clear. December中下旬 may be a potential turning point. In the short term, use a dumbbell structure to deal with the market [1][7]. - In the stock index options market, adopt a covered call strategy for defense. The market style is rotating, and no capital main line has been formed yet. It is recommended to continue holding the covered call strategy [2][7]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the funding factor may support the bullish sentiment. The bond market is currently volatile, and the market space may not be opened yet. Towards the end of the year, the bond market allocation power may remain strong, and there is a possibility of further implementation of loose monetary policies. The bond market is expected to be volatile with a bullish bias [3][7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: Use a dumbbell structure to cope with the market. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have different basis and spread changes, and the total positions have also changed. The market is expected to be under pressure and stable before the main line is clear. December中下旬 may be a potential turning point. Short - term strategy is to hold IM + dividend [7]. - **Logic**: The equity market on Thursday continued to be weak, with coal, new energy, and petrochemical sectors leading the decline. The trading volume of the price - increase chain is at a high level, and the divergence among funds has intensified. The trading volume is around 1.7 trillion, and the turnover rate is at the bottom, indicating low participation. After the overnight rebound of the US and Japanese stocks, the market preference continued to decline, implying a strong profit - taking demand [1][7]. Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: Adopt a covered call strategy for defense. The total turnover of each option variety decreased by 6.70%, and the liquidity is at a relatively low level since October. The trading volume decline indicates that the market is not overly pessimistic. It is recommended to continue holding the covered call strategy [2][7]. - **Logic**: The equity index fluctuated weakly yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.40%. The market style is rotating, and no capital main line has been formed [2][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The funding factor may support the bullish sentiment. The trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed. The bond market is currently volatile, and towards the end of the year, it is expected to be volatile with a bullish bias. Operational suggestions include trend strategy (volatile with a bullish bias), hedging strategy (pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis), basis strategy (pay attention to basis widening), and curve strategy (the curve may remain steep) [7][8][10]. - **Logic**: Treasury bond futures rose and fell differently yesterday. The central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 10 billion yuan. Due to the weakening of tax - period factors, the funding situation has eased, and the funding rate has declined slightly, which may support the bullish sentiment, especially for the short - end. The long - end TL variety may be affected by the expectation of intensified real - estate policies [3][7][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report lists the economic data of the EU, China, and the US from November 19 - 20, 2025, including CPI, core CPI, LPR, unemployment claims, non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng conducted research in Hubei and Hunan from November 18 - 20, emphasizing the promotion of foreign trade quality improvement, the construction of a high - standard logistics system, and the support of high - quality development of the manufacturing industry [12]. - Shenzhen will conduct a bond auction on November 24. The 2025 Shenzhen Special Bond (Sixty - fourth Issue) plans to issue 6.52 billion yuan with a 10 - year term, and the funds are intended for the Shenzhen government investment guidance fund. This year, many places have issued special bonds to local government investment funds, with a total scale exceeding 50 billion yuan [13][14]. - Since November, more than 15 bond funds have suffered large - scale redemptions, mainly pure - bond funds. The new - issue market for bond funds is also cold. In contrast, equity products have shown strong capital - attracting ability, with a net subscription of 143.623 billion yuan for equity ETFs since October [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On November 20th, equity index futures fell while CGB futures rose; commodity futures performed poorly, with energy products leading the decline [9][11]. - The November Loan Prime Rate (LPR) quotation shows that both the 5 - year and 1 - year rates remain unchanged, at 3.5% and 3% respectively [35]. - As of November 17, 2025, the number of newly registered private equity funds has exceeded 10,000, with stock strategies being the dominant force in the issuance market [35]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IH fell by 0.49%, IF fell by 0.69%, and TL fell by 0.21% [9]. - Commodity futures: The top three gainers are benzene (up 2.0% with a 7.7% month - on - month increase in positions), eggs (up 2.0% with a 1.0% month - on - month rise in positions), and apples (up 1.3% with a 13.1% month - on - month growth in positions). The top three decliners are low - sulfur fuel oil (LSFO, down 3.5% with an 8.1% month - on - month decrease in positions), coking coal (down 3.2% with a 2.3% month - on - month reduction in positions), and soda ash (down 2.9% with a 1.1% month - on - month fall in positions) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Benzene**: On November 20, it rose by 2.0% to 5596 yuan/ton. Recent price rebounds are driven by U.S. aromatics gasoline blending. However, the game between expectations and reality dominates the market, leading to a volatile phase [15][16][17]. - **Ethenylbenzene**: On November 20, it rose by 1.2% to 6595 yuan/ton. Currently, the bullish driver is hard to verify, but the downside for short - selling is limited. The market may be affected by gasoline blending news and the pressure from benzene [22][23][24]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **LSFO**: On November 20, it dropped by 3.5% to 3139 yuan/ton. Media reported that the U.S. and Russia's closed - door negotiations on the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a fall in crude oil prices. LSFO is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations and faces supply - demand pressure [28][29][30]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The November LPR quotation shows that the 5 - year LPR is 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR is 3%, both remaining unchanged from the previous month [35]. 2.2 Industry News - As of November 17, 2025, the number of newly registered private equity funds has exceeded 10,000, with stock strategies being the dominant force in the issuance market [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short and medium term, the actual supply and demand of lithium carbonate are favorable, and inventory depletion is accelerating. However, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has started to limit positions on lithium carbonate, which may cool down the recent exuberant sentiment. For polysilicon, the rumors of state reserve purchases have been refuted, but there are still expectations for supply - side contraction policies, and the price has support at the bottom. In the long term, the supply - side contraction expectation of silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in the rising stage, but the demand expectation is also increasing, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing [1]. - The sentiment of industrial silicon has declined, and the supply and demand are still weak, with the price fluctuating. The policy expectation of polysilicon is volatile, and the price is in a wide - range shock. The trading sentiment of lithium carbonate has cooled down, and attention should be paid to the high - level fluctuations of lithium prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of November 2025, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly. The domestic inventory decreased by 0.1% month - on - month to 452,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.8% week - on - week. In October 2025, the monthly output increased by 7.5% month - on - month to 452,000 tons, but decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. The export volume in October decreased by 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year. The organic silicon industry may enter a production - reduction and price - support stage [6]. - **Main Logic**: The anti - involution in the organic silicon industry has strengthened the market's expectation of anti - involution in surplus varieties, but the production reduction in the organic silicon industry is negative for the demand of industrial silicon. From the fundamental perspective, the supply in the southwest decreased due to the dry season, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon may decline. The inventory is still at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are being depleted [6]. - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the organic silicon start - up rate, and the over - supply pressure of industrial silicon still exists [6]. Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price of N - type re - feedstock polysilicon was stable, and the number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 20. The export and import volumes from January to September 2025 decreased year - on - year. The photovoltaic installation growth rate decreased from June to September [6][9]. - **Main Logic**: In terms of supply, the production of polysilicon will decrease in the dry season, and there are still expectations for anti - involution policies. In terms of demand, the photovoltaic installation growth rate decreased in the second half of the year, and the demand for polysilicon may weaken in November. Overall, the supply - demand situation still has pressure, and the price is expected to remain in a wide - range shock [7][9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant boost to the polysilicon price, but the inventory pressure is still large. The price of polysilicon is expected to show a wide - range shock [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On November 20, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 0.32%, and the total position decreased by 15,651 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,400 yuan/ton. In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate increased by 22% month - on - month and 3% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply and demand are both strong, and inventory depletion is expected to continue from November to December. The supply is expected to remain strong, but there is a shortage of ore. The demand is good, and speculative demand may push up the price. The social inventory is depleting, and the warehouse receipts have stabilized. In the short term, the resumption of production of Jiaxiawo is the key factor affecting the balance sheet. In the long term, a bullish view is recommended [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 2. Market Monitoring Industrial Silicon No specific monitoring content provided. Polysilicon No specific monitoring content provided. Lithium Carbonate No specific monitoring content provided. 3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 20, 2025: the commodity index was 2,234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index was 2,535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial products index was 2,200.99, down 0.68%. The new energy commodity index was 452.94, with a daily decline of 2.17%, a 5 - day increase of 5.19%, a 1 - month increase of 10.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.83% [54][56].

P信期货 CITIC Futures EIA周度数据:季节性特征显著 | 2025年11月20日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为 | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 F03141405 | 关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | 险,投资需谨慎。 | 美国11月14日当周商业原油库存减少342.6万桶,原油净出口增加61.4万桶/日,炼厂开工率延续底部回 升,加工量增加25.9万桶/日,共同驱动原油库存回落。美国单周原油产量减少2.8万桶/日至1383.4万桶/ 日,炼厂开工率回升至90%。石油产品方面,汽柴油库存均有回升,成品油表需回落,原油与石油产品总库 存高位继续回落,单周数据偏向利好。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 | 单位:万桶 | | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - Currently, the supply - demand situation in the industry is marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The fundamental pattern is expected to continue, with limited trend guidance for prices. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are more positive macro and policy signals later, there may be phased upward opportunities [5] Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume has continued to decline after peaking. Port inventories have decreased slightly. Small - sample hot metal production has slightly decreased, and large - scale maintenance has not occurred. In the short term, hot metal is expected to be supported, and iron ore restocking demand is expected to be released, so iron ore prices are firm. Scrap steel has a weak supply - demand situation, and its spot price is expected to fluctuate with finished products in the short term [1] 2. Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and coke demand is still supported. However, cost support has weakened. After four rounds of price increases, coke is in a dilemma of rising or falling, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. Coking coal supply is expected to remain weak. Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level but with limited replenishment. Although downstream procurement is gradually slowing down, the fundamentals are still healthy, and spot coal prices are strongly supported. However, the futures price is still suppressed by finished products, and the warehouse receipt pressure is still large, with a small possibility of further significant decline [2] 3. Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The firm cost also supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the price has insufficient upward driving force. It is expected to run around the cost at a low level [2] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Supply still has disturbance expectations, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress prices, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, prices will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, with obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the decline in glass prices has dragged down soda ash prices, which are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 5. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is weak, mainly with low - price transactions. Steel mill profits are poor, and production has decreased significantly. Construction site funds have increased slightly, and demand shows some resilience after the off - season decline. Steel inventories are still higher than the same period last year, and there are still fundamental contradictions. It is expected to oscillate widely [7][9] Iron Ore - Port trading volume has increased. Spot prices are oscillating. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has decreased. Hot metal is expected to be supported in the short term, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. Inventories are expected to accumulate. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [7][9] Scrap Steel - Supply and demand are both weak. After the price decline, the cost - performance ratio has recovered, and the downward space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate with finished products [8] Coke - The futures price is under pressure and oscillating. The spot price is stable. Supply is temporarily stable, and demand is still supported. Inventories are low. It is expected to follow coking coal to oscillate [8][11][12] Coking Coal - The market sentiment is poor, and the futures price is under pressure and oscillating. Supply recovery is slow, and imports are at a high level but with limited replenishment. The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot price is strongly supported. The futures price is suppressed by finished products, and the warehouse receipt pressure is large. It is less likely to fall significantly, and attention can be paid to the winter storage situation in the industrial chain [13] Glass - Macro is neutral. Supply is expected to decline due to possible cold repair at the end of the year. Demand is weak, and mid - and downstream inventories are high, suppressing the price. If there is no more cold repair, it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - Macro is neutral. Production has decreased due to maintenance. Demand is weakening. The cost has increased, with obvious bottom support. The supply - demand surplus suppresses price increases. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [14] Ferromanganese Silicon - The futures price has declined due to the weakening of coking coal and coke. The spot price is stable. The cost is supported, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to run around the cost at a low level [17] Ferrosilicon - The futures price is oscillating at a low level. The spot market trading is average. The cost is supported, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to run around the cost at a low level [18]