1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for some and "oscillating weakly" for others [5][6][7][8][9][11][13][14][15][17][18][20] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various agricultural products. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products facing downward pressure while others are in a state of oscillation. The macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and policy factors all have an impact on the market [1][5][6][7][8][9][11][13][14][15][17][18][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook for Each Product - **Oils and Fats**: Concerned about the effectiveness of the lower technical support. Due to the pessimistic outlook for US soybean export demand, the market is in an oscillating and downward - adjusting state. Palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory, while domestic soybean oil inventory may peak and decline, and rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decrease. Overall, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate and consolidate [5] - **Protein Meal**: The sentiment boost is limited, and the market continues to oscillate at a low level. US soybeans are facing challenges in exports, and the domestic supply pressure is large in the short - term, but the demand may increase steadily in the long - term [5][6] - **Corn/Starch**: With the new grain selling pressure coming, the spot price drives the futures price to decline significantly. In the short - term, the market needs to deal with the new grain listing pressure, and in the long - term, it may show a pattern of short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7] - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter volume in October increases, and the pig price is under pressure. In the short - term, the supply pressure increases, and in the long - term, if the capacity reduction is implemented, the supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [8] - **Natural Rubber**: The negative factors have not been realized, but the market sentiment remains weak. The futures price may have over - declined due to sentiment. NR may show a relatively strong performance in the near - term. In the short - term, it can be considered from a long - bias perspective of oversold rebound, but the increase range is limited [1][9][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The raw material has weakened significantly, and the futures price has dropped sharply. The high production volume and high inventory are the main pressures, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [13] - **Cotton**: The decline of cotton price has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. Based on the expected increase in production, the cotton price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [14] - **Sugar**: Both domestic and international sugar prices have weakened. In the medium - and long - term, the sugar market is expected to be in a bearish pattern due to the expected increase in global supply [15] - **Pulp**: The game of the virtual - to - real ratio may lead to intraday fluctuations, but the effectiveness needs to be observed. The high supply and the issue of birch pulp warehouse receipts are the main downward drivers [17] - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. The market supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and the price may decline slightly after the festival [18] - **Logs**: The peak season is not prosperous, and the logs oscillate weakly. The weak demand and high inventory are the main factors affecting the market [20] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - glued paper, and logs, but does not provide specific data analysis content [22][54][67][113][126][140][163] 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [175]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets such as equities next week. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, focus on the new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of further escalation of conflicts before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, and the market may start to pay attention to medium - and long - term marginal changes in the next five years. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are also worth tracking [6]. - **Asset Views**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold. Be cautious about risk assets such as equities next week. In the fourth - quarter medium - term, hold the view of equities > commodities > bonds and watch for buying opportunities in equity assets after the turmoil [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. With crowded funds in small - cap stocks, the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the risk of insufficient liquidity in the options market, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Affected by factors such as policy, fundamental repair, and tariffs, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, with the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and increased risks to the Fed's independence, the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, the load is under pressure and there is a lack of upward momentum. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel Products**: Poor demand and policy disturbances. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as special bond issuance progress, steel exports, and iron - water production need to be monitored [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, but macro disturbances are increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and the market is temporarily stable. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment need to be watched [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply decreased during the holiday, and downstream replenishment slowed down. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment should be monitored [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and cost support is strong. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as raw material costs and steel procurement need to be considered [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support still exists, but supply and demand are loose, and prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as cost prices and foreign quotes should be watched [7]. - **Glass**: Supply concerns have eased, and intermediate inventories are high. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and spot production and sales need to be monitored [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Production has slightly decreased, and inventories are continuously being transferred. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and soda - ash inventories should be watched [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices continue to be strong. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement, and factors such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, and Fed policies need to be monitored [7]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as ore resumption and electrolytic - aluminum resumption need to be watched [7]. - **Aluminum**: Boosted by macro sentiment, aluminum prices are volatile and strong. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro risks and supply disturbances need to be monitored [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory has returned to accumulation, and zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro risks and zinc - ore supply need to be watched [7]. - **Lead**: With supply - side disturbances and slow battery exports, lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as supply - side disturbances and battery exports need to be monitored [7]. - **Nickel**: The expectation of loose supply and demand remains unchanged, and RKAB quota progress is fluctuating. Nickel prices are widely volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies need to be watched [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, stainless steel prices are volatile and rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as Indonesian policies and demand growth need to be monitored [7]. - **Tin**: Supply disturbances continue, and tin prices are volatile at high levels. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement need to be watched [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The restart rhythm of coal and northwest production is fluctuating, and industrial - silicon prices are volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as supply - side over - reduction and photovoltaic installation need to be monitored [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The expectation of production suspension has ended, and lithium - carbonate prices are under pressure and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as demand and supply disturbances need to be watched [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Affected by macro disturbances, the fundamentals are under continuous pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations need to be monitored [8]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in excess, and the low - valuation situation is difficult to change. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as crude - oil and overseas propane costs need to be watched [8]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are continuously falling, and asphalt futures prices are also falling. The short - term trend is expected to be a downward movement, and factors such as sanctions and supply disturbances need to be monitored [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the expectation of increased production and geopolitical cooling, high - sulfur fuel - oil futures prices are falling. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as geopolitics and crude - oil prices need to be watched [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and crude - oil prices need to be monitored [8]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins but with Iranian disturbances still existing, pay attention to arbitrage opportunities between methanol and olefins. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics need to be watched [8]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, there are insufficient positive factors, and the short - term weakness continues. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as the improvement of Sino - Indian relations and export expectations need to be monitored [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The fundamentals have weak support and the macro sentiment is pessimistic, so prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions need to be watched [8]. - **PX**: Cost collapse drags down the valuation of chemical products. In a situation where supply and demand are both strong, the benefits are mainly volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil, macro abnormalities, and PTA device restarts need to be monitored [8]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation has slightly improved, but costs and macro sentiment have a significant drag, so prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil, macro abnormalities, and the peak - season performance need to be watched [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Costs drag down the absolute price, but the processing fee remains stable under stable supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand need to be monitored [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: The raw - material cost support is weak, and the low - level speculative replenishment demand supports the bottle - chip processing - fee profit. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction target implementation and terminal demand need to be watched [8]. - **Propylene**: Cost decline and the resurgence of tariff games lead to a weak and volatile PL. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices and domestic macro factors need to be monitored [8]. - **PP**: The raw - material end collapses and there are tariff disturbances, so PP prices are falling. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices and domestic and foreign macro factors need to be watched [8]. - **Plastic**: Oil prices have significantly declined, and plastic prices are weak and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as oil prices and domestic and foreign macro factors need to be monitored [8]. - **Styrene**: Inventory pressure is still high, and styrene prices are weak and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics need to be watched [8]. - **PVC**: There is still fundamental pressure, and PVC prices are volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as expectations, costs, and supply need to be monitored [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price can be stopped for profit at low levels. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as market sentiment, production start - up, and demand need to be watched [8]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower - level technical support. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data need to be monitored [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The sentiment boost is limited, and the market continues to be volatile at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as weather, domestic demand, and trade wars need to be watched [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: The pressure of selling new grain is coming, and the spot price drives the futures price to decline significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as demand, macro factors, and weather need to be monitored [8]. - **Pig**: The planned October slaughter volume is increasing, and pig prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies need to be watched [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Although the negative factors have not been realized, the market sentiment remains weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro changes need to be monitored [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The range - bound pattern remains unchanged. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil need to be watched [8]. - **Cotton**: The decline of cotton prices has slowed down. Pay attention to the purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as demand and inventory need to be monitored [8]. - **Sugar**: Both domestic and foreign sugar prices are weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as imports and Brazilian production need to be watched [8]. - **Pulp**: The game of the virtual - to - real ratio may cause intraday fluctuations, but the effectiveness needs to be observed. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as macro - economic changes and US - dollar - denominated quotes need to be monitored [8]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up need to be watched [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures are "oscillating with a bullish bias", for stock index options are "oscillating", and for treasury bond futures are "oscillating" [7][9][10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The panic sentiment in the stock index futures market is controllable, and geopolitical shocks present an opportunity to increase positions. In the stock index options market, the impact of risk events is limited, and it is appropriate to configure short - volatility strategies. In the treasury bond futures market, the risk - aversion sentiment has declined, and bond yields have rebounded. The short - term bond market is still significantly affected by risk appetite, but the impact of this round of tariffs may be lower than that in early April [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The opening of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.5% on Monday, then quickly recovered and filled the gap. The recovery was driven by Trump's concession speech and institutional FOMO sentiment. Only IM increased its position by 14,000 lots. It is recommended to increase long positions in IM at low levels. The risk factors include the decline of incremental funds and the rise of the US dollar index [7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market opened low and moved high. The option market turnover increased by 16.12% to 13.362 billion yuan. The trading rhythm slowed down later. The sentiment is positive, and the impact of risk events is limited. It is recommended to configure short - volatility strategies such as covered calls and double - selling [2][8] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures opened high and closed low, with all contracts closing up. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly rose. The central bank's net injection of 137.8 billion yuan supported the short - end of the bond market. The easing of Sino - US relations and the rise of the equity market were negative for the bond market. It is recommended to adopt corresponding strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curves [3][9][10] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On October 13, 2025, China's September export annual rate in US dollars was 8.3%, higher than the forecast of 7.1%. Other data such as China's September social financing scale and the US September non - farm payrolls are yet to be released [12] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - In the first three quarters, China's total goods trade volume reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, China's exports and imports both increased, and the trade surplus decreased. China's September rare - earth exports decreased compared to August, while imports increased. Trump hinted at canceling new tariffs on China [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products are rated as "oscillating weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, pure benzene, styrene, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, polyester bottle - chip, LLDPE, PP, PL; methanol and urea are rated as "oscillating"; PVC and caustic soda are also rated as "oscillating" [9][10][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][24][29][30][31][32][33] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the energy and chemical industry remains weak. Although there are some temporary positive factors such as the easing of trade tensions and the progress of the peace agreement in the Middle East, the fundamental pressure persists. The industry is still dominated by the high - growth production period of OPEC +, facing the pressure of accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation. Most product prices are expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Macroeconomic factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. Global supply is in an increasing period dominated by the high - growth production of OPEC +. Later, there will be pressure of accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation due to the decline of refinery operations. The geopolitical support is weakening, and the macro - risk is fluctuating. The short - term macro - factors play a more significant role. The oil price may rebound but the downward trend is hard to reverse [9] - **Market News**: OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and maintain the growth forecast of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's crude oil production in September increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. India and the US are expected to reach a trade agreement before the autumn deadline, and India hopes to buy more energy and natural gas from the US. World leaders participated in the signing ceremony of the Gaza peace agreement [9] 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The spot price is continuously falling, and the asphalt futures price is also falling. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled down, and the trade conflict has put pressure on the crude oil price, which in turn suppresses the asphalt futures price. The asphalt spot price is falling, the production plan in October has increased by 19% year - on - year, the supply tension has been greatly relieved, and the over - valued premium is starting to decline [10] 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The expectation of production increase and the cooling of geopolitical situation lead to the decline of high - sulfur fuel oil futures price. Geopolitical upgrading has a short - term impact on the price, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Although the processing demand of domestic refineries is increasing, the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, and the power generation demand in the Middle East is lower than expected, so the overall demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with limited demand space, but the current valuation is low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [12] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The reduction of export tax rebates for refined oil in China may lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand for low - sulfur fuel oil [12] 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: There is still capital gambling on the impact of Iran - related factors, and methanol rebounds cautiously. It is expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term [24] - **Main Logic**: On October 13, the methanol futures price rebounded. Some capital is gambling on the news that the unloading of Iranian - sanctioned ships may be blocked. Although the port inventory of methanol is still at a relatively high level, considering the high probability of Iranian - related disturbances in winter, methanol still has the value of low - level buying. However, it is restricted by the overall weak sentiment of the energy and chemical industry and the weak downstream olefin market [24] 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: There is a short - term improvement in transactions, but the downward pressure trend continues. The fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure after a short - term positive period [24] - **Main Logic**: On October 13, driven by the expected monthly guiding price of urea announced by the nitrogen fertilizer association in the next half - year, the downstream transactions improved and the futures price rose briefly. However, the fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and it is necessary to wait for the agricultural demand after the autumn sowing [24] 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The port inventory has reached an inflection point and will accumulate slightly in the short term. The long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [20] - **Main Logic**: The oil price is oscillating weakly, and the cost support is weak. The supply of ethylene glycol remains high, the port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the pressure of future arrivals is increasing. It is in a stage of weakening supply - demand balance, and the spot market is loose [20] 3.1.8 PX - **View**: After the oil price breaks through and then recovers, PX's supply and demand are both strong, and its profit is adjusted within a certain range. It is expected to oscillate within a range [13] - **Main Logic**: Trump's attitude has eased, and the international oil price has rebounded slightly after breaking through the low level. PX has followed the cost and fallen slightly. Fundamentally, there is no significant change. PTA has no further production reduction plan, and the polyester load is relatively stable, which provides some support for PX demand. However, PX's own supply is still in a strengthening trend [13] 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: There is no further production reduction plan, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [14][15] - **Main Logic**: The international oil price broke through and fell last Friday, and although it rebounded later, the cost support has been slightly dragged down. PTA factories have no further production reduction plan, and some devices will increase their load in the short term. With the expectation of new device commissioning, the basis is weak. The downstream polyester demand provides certain support, and the sales of polyester yarn have increased under the promotion of price concessions [14][15] 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the cost, but the processing fee has a certain support. The absolute value will follow the raw material price [21] - **Main Logic**: The upstream market is generally weak, and the short - fiber price has oscillated and fallen due to the cost. At a low price, it has triggered some speculative stockpiling, and the sales have increased slightly. It is expected to follow the upstream price in the short term, and the processing fee has some support [21] 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle - Chip - **View**: The low price has triggered speculative replenishment, and the processing fee has been further repaired. The absolute value will follow the raw material price, and the support at the lower end of the processing fee has increased [22] - **Main Logic**: Due to Trump's attitude easing over the weekend, the upstream raw material price did not fall deeply. The low price of bottle - chips has triggered some speculative replenishment, and combined with factory production reduction, the processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has been further repaired [22] 3.1.12 LLDPE - **View**: The fundamental support is limited, and it oscillates weakly under the influence of macro - factors [29] - **Main Logic**: Recently, the overall energy and chemical market has been oscillating weakly, and LLDPE has followed. The oil price is oscillating, and although the US has increased sanctions on Iran - related entities, the Iranian oil supply is still stable. The global supply is in an increasing period, and there is pressure of supply surplus. The plastic's own fundamental support is limited, and the peak season is coming to an end, so the upper - and middle - stream enterprises have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices [29] 3.1.13 PP - **View**: The cost support is limited, and it oscillates weakly [30] - **Main Logic**: The Sino - US trade friction has intensified again. The oil price is oscillating, and the supply is in an increasing period with the pressure of supply surplus. PP's own fundamental support is limited, with high production and limited demand, and the high - level inventory will suppress the price. It is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change of maintenance [30] 3.1.14 PL - **View**: The raw material support has weakened, and it oscillates weakly [31] - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment is bearish, and downstream buyers are cautious. Enterprises have difficulty in selling products and have to offer discounts. The regional differentiation is intensifying, and the high - price transactions are difficult to achieve [31] 3.1.15 PVC - **View**: There is still fundamental pressure, and it oscillates. The fundamental situation is under pressure, and it is expected to run weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariffs and the 14th Five - Year Plan on market expectations [32] - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, Sino - US tariff disputes have arisen again. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamental situation is under pressure, with the cost moving down. The upstream autumn maintenance will increase in mid - October, the downstream start - up rate is weak, the export orders have improved, and the calcium carbide price is under pressure [32] 3.1.16 Caustic Soda - **View**: The spot price has stabilized, and the short - term spot supply and demand have improved. The pressure on the spot market has been relieved, and short - positions should be closed at the appropriate time [33] - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, Sino - US tariff disputes have arisen again. At the micro - level, the short - term spot supply and demand of caustic soda have improved. The procurement of some enterprises has relieved the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong. The non - aluminum peak season is coming to an end, and the low inventory may drive non - aluminum enterprises to buy at low prices. The production of caustic soda will decline in mid - October due to maintenance [33] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different products have different changes in inter - period spreads. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.48 (change: 0.03), and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is - 52 (change: - 10) [34] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various products also vary. For example, the basis of asphalt is 178 (change: 16), and the warehouse receipts are 43,900 [35] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., also show different changes [37] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report also monitors the basis and spread of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but the specific content is not fully presented in the text [38][51][63] 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 13, 2025, shows that the commodity index is 2233.00 (+0.01%), the commodity 20 index is 2525.09 (+0.17%), and the industrial products index is 2211.57 (-0.64%) [279] - **Sector Index**: The energy index on October 13, 2025, is 1139.91, with a daily decline of 1.42%, a 5 - day decline of 7.10%, a 1 - month decline of 4.63%, and a decline of 7.17% since the beginning of the year [281]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Expected to fluctuate in the short term, with potential downward pressure due to oversupply [6][7] - Polysilicon: Expected to fluctuate under pressure, with prices potentially continuing to decline if policy expectations fade [7][9] - Lithium carbonate: Expected to trade sideways in the short term, with long - term oversupply and supply recovery expectations weighing on prices [11] 2. Core Viewpoints - The policy on the supply side of new energy metals is unclear, and the current supply - demand situation is temporarily driving the market. In the medium - short term, due to the fluctuating supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to wait for the supply - side policy to become clear. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center, while the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1] 3. Summary by Variety Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Monitor the resumption rhythm in the northwest, and the silicon price will fluctuate in the short term [6] - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The cumulative production from January to September was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. In August, the export volume was 76,642 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. The cumulative export from January to August was 491,353 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The latest domestic inventory was 442,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [6] - **Main Logic**: Before the holiday, the resumption progress of large factories in the northwest slowed down, and the fluctuating coal prices affected the cost support. In October, the supply was still relatively loose, and the demand improved slightly month - on - month [6] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The current supply - demand situation is poor, and the polysilicon price is under pressure and fluctuating [7] - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price range of N - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. In August, the export volume was about 2,992 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.9%, and the cumulative export from January to August was 16,517 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.3%. The import volume in August was about 1,005.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.81%, and the cumulative import from January to August was 13,385 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.59% [7] - **Main Logic**: From August to September, the production of polysilicon has recovered to over 130,000 tons, and high production is expected to continue in October. The demand for photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year is expected to decline, and the demand for polysilicon may weaken further [8][9] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: With strong supply and demand, the price will trade sideways [10] - **Information Analysis**: On October 13, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 0.63% to 72,280 yuan/ton. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 73,100 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 70,850 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 839 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton [10] - **Main Logic**: Currently, the market has strong supply and demand, but there is still an expectation of oversupply after the peak season. The supply is expected to reach 90,000 tons in October, and the apparent demand in October is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month to 114,000 tons. The social inventory is still relatively high [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - Affected by tariff expectations, the prices of most black building materials varieties fluctuated weakly during the day. The panic in the market was relatively limited due to the uncertainty of tariff increases and the weaker intensity compared to April. The prices continued to fluctuate weakly at night. In mid - October, the terminal demand of the industry remained poor, and the reduction of hot metal production limited the support for prices. In the fourth quarter, the influence of macro and policy factors increased, and attention should be paid to the possibility of positive signals from the macro and policy levels [1] - The current fundamental situation can hardly provide clear upward support for the prices of the sector's varieties. The tariff issue drags down the market sentiment and slightly affects the price performance of the sector. However, there are still expectations for overseas interest rate cuts and positive signals from domestic important meetings [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Analysis - **Iron Element**: Iron ore demand is supported at a high level, supply is expected to be stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap steel has insufficient fundamental drivers and is expected to follow the price of finished products [2] - **Carbon Element**: Coke has rigid demand support from hot metal, and its price is expected to remain stable. Coking coal's fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and its price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Alloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are supported in the short term but have downward pressure after the peak season [2] - **Others**: Glass may have a rebound space if post - holiday production and sales are good; otherwise, the price may be under pressure. Soda ash is in a supply - surplus pattern and is expected to oscillate widely [2][5] 2. Individual Variety Analysis - **Steel**: The inventory is at a moderately high level, the fundamentals are weak, and the overseas risks are increasing. The short - term price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited [7] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported at a high level, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited upside space [7][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamental drivers are insufficient, and the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [9] - **Coke**: The fundamentals are healthy in the short term, and the price is expected to remain stable [10] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [11] - **Glass**: If the post - holiday production and sales are good, there is a rebound space; otherwise, the price may decline. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction [11][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price is expected to oscillate widely and decline in the long term [14] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is short - term support, but the price may decline after the peak season [15] - **Ferrosilicon**: There is short - term support, but the price may decline after the peak season [16] 3. Other Data - **Commodity Index**: On October 13, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index changed by +0.01%, +0.17%, and - 0.64% respectively [100] - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On October 13, 2025, the steel industry chain index had a daily decline of - 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of +0.07%, a 1 - month decline of - 0.83%, and a decline of - 5.54% since the beginning of the year [102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report introduces the development history, major exchanges, core products, market structure, and volume - price characteristics of the North American futures market. The US futures market has Chicago and New York as its dual cores, with a complementary and comprehensive variety of functions. The Canadian futures market, centered around the Montreal Exchange, is smaller in scale but provides risk - management tools for local investors and operates stably [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Development History 3.1.1 United States - The US futures market has a "dual - core driven" pattern of CME and ICE. CME Group has strengthened its system - important position through energy derivatives pricing and technological innovation, while ICE Futures US has become a global pricing benchmark in the soft - commodity field [8]. - Chicago is the origin of the US futures market. The development of commodity futures was promoted by its position as a transportation hub and agricultural center. The CBOT, established in 1848, marked the birth of modern agricultural futures trading. The CME, founded in 1898, transformed into a leading financial derivatives exchange in the 20th century, launching foreign exchange and interest - rate futures. In 2007, CME and CBOT merged, and in 2008, CME Group acquired NYMEX and COMEX, becoming a comprehensive trading platform [9]. - The US government's regulatory framework evolution also influenced market development. The 1922 "Grain Futures Act" brought futures trading under unified regulation, and the 1974 establishment of the CFTC regulated both commodity and financial futures markets [10]. - New York is the second core of the US futures market. The New York Cotton Exchange in 1870 started futures trading in New York. The development of energy and metal futures, such as the launch of WTI crude oil futures by NYMEX in 1983 and the establishment of COMEX as a global metal derivatives pricing center, contributed to its growth. ICE, founded in 2000, promoted the electronic trading of energy futures and formed a dynamic pricing mechanism [11]. 3.1.2 Canada - The development of the Canadian futures market is centered around the Montreal Exchange (MX). MX, formerly the Montreal Stock Exchange, started as a securities exchange in 1874. In 1975, it launched Canada's first stock options. In 1982, it was renamed MX, focusing on options and futures. In the 21st century, it went through adjustment and transformation, and since 2020, it has been upgraded to a "North American - characteristic derivatives hub" [15][16]. 3.2 Futures Products 3.2.1 United States - **CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange)**: It offers equity futures (e.g., S&P 500 index futures), commodity futures (covering agriculture, energy, and cryptocurrencies), and exchange - rate futures (the world's largest regulated FX futures market) [20][21][23]. - **CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade)**: Specializes in interest - rate futures (e.g., 10Y and 2Y US Treasury bond futures) and commodity futures (corn, soybeans, and wheat futures) [24][25][26]. - **NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange)**: A global center for energy and some metal futures, with WTI crude oil futures as one of the global oil - pricing benchmarks [27]. - **COMEX (New York Commodity Exchange)**: Focuses on metal futures and options, being a global pricing center for precious and industrial metals, such as gold and copper futures [28]. - **ICE (Intercontinental Exchange)**: Covers equity futures (e.g., MSCI emerging - market index futures), commodity futures (Brent crude oil, natural gas, and agricultural products), and exchange - rate futures (with the US dollar index futures as the core) [29][30][32]. 3.2.2 Canada - **MX (Montreal Exchange)**: Provides equity futures (e.g., S&P/TSX 60 index futures) and interest - rate futures (Canadian government bond futures and CORRA futures) [34][35][36]. 3.3 Volume - Price Overview - From 2012 to 2024, the trading volume of North American futures derivatives generally showed an upward trend with fluctuations. In 2025, the overall trading volume of the six major North American exchanges remained high. Interest - rate derivatives are the core driving force, followed by stocks, stock index futures, and US - dollar - related currency derivatives. Emerging categories are expanding rapidly [37]. - In terms of energy, NYMEX and ICE are dominant; in agriculture, products like corn, soybeans, etc., are actively traded; in metals, COMEX's gold futures have high trading volume. Overall, the North American futures market is characterized by interest - rate product dominance, followed by energy and agriculture, with stable precious metals and currencies, and rapid growth in emerging categories [38]. - In terms of open - interest amounts, the E - mini S&P 500 and 10 - year US Treasury bond futures are the mainstays of the North American derivatives market. The E - mini S&P 500 shows an upward - trending and volatile pattern, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond futures maintain a high open - interest scale [38]. 3.4 Appendix: North American Futures Exchanges' 2025 Futures Trading Volume Ranking - **CME**: The trading volume of stock index products is 813,667,719, short - term interest - rate futures (STIRS) is 607,317,183, etc., with a total trading volume of 1,623,724,330 [46]. - **CBOT**: The trading volume of medium - term interest - rate futures (2 - 10 years) is 875,104,350, long - term interest - rate futures (> 10 years) is 143,363,588, etc., with a total trading volume of 1,314,723,478 [47]. - **NYMEX**: The trading volume of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is 157,735,117, natural gas is 92,166,306, etc., with a total trading volume of 350,951,301 [49]. - **ICE**: The trading volume of natural gas is 136,932,054, stock index products is 31,665,405, etc., with a total trading volume of 240,545,798 [50]. - **COMEX**: The trading volume of gold is 68,242,447, copper is 13,883,451, etc., with a total trading volume of 96,761,551 [52]. - **MX**: The trading volume of medium - term interest - rate futures (2 - 10 years) is 50,756,344, short - term interest - rate futures (STIRS) is 23,876,422, etc., with a total trading volume of 84,199,074 [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On the week of October 12, global on - shore crude oil inventories, floating storage inventories, and full - scope (including in - transit) inventories all increased. The full - scope (including in - transit) inventory has been rising for five consecutive weeks and is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. In terms of on - shore inventory by region, China's inventory decreased, while inventories in India, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East all rebounded [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Trends** - Global on - shore, floating storage, and full - scope (including in - transit) crude oil inventories increased in the week of October 12, with the full - scope inventory rising for five consecutive weeks and reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years [2]. - **Regional On - shore Inventory Changes** - China's on - shore crude oil inventory decreased [2]. - On - shore crude oil inventories in India, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East increased [2].

9月非OPEC产 量韧性仍存 EEOPEC Company Limited 产量数据报告 2025-10-13 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 彭博援引自Rystad数据显示，9月重点非OPEC国家产量韧性仍在。环比来 看,美国产量延续增长,创下年内新高,此外圭亚那、英国、俄罗斯均有可观 增量,但加拿大产量受到季节性检修拖累,导致样本国家总量环比走低。同比 来看,9月挪威、圭亚那、巴西、加拿大、美国同比增量高达144万桶/日,俄罗 斯因OPEC+配额增加,产量同比增速达31.7万桶/日,供应压力的持续释放仍在 体现。 风险提示:彭博对数据进行回溯调整。 | 单位:千桶/日 | 2025年9月 | 环比数值 | 同比数值 | 同比涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国 | 12338. 46 | 64. 12 | 420. 35 | 3.53 | | 英国 | 432. 98 | 83. 19 | -30. 79 | -6. 64 | | 俄罗斯 | 9408. 64 | 79.00 | 317.00 | 3.49 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 41st week of 2025, including the issuance and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds, as well as their issuance progress [4][8][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Special Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 16 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 20.1 billion [4]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.6%, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 0 billion [4][5]. New General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 9.9 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 0 billion [8]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0%, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 0 billion [8][10]. Local Bonds - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6% [13]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -24.6 billion, a decrease of 87.8 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -19.8 billion [14]. National Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was 184.4 billion, an increase of 184.4 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -38.4 billion [17]. - As of October 12, the net financing progress of national bonds was 83.4% [19]. Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 159.8 billion, an increase of 96.6 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -58.2 billion [21]. - As of October 12, the net financing of national bonds plus the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.5% [21].