1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, adopt a defensive allocation strategy as the equity market is weak. The inflow of funds into the price - rising chain has slowed, and the market is in an observation period for sector rotation, with risk preference declining [1][7]. - For stock index options, continue to hold covered strategies for defense. The market sentiment has stabilized, but there is no clear capital main - line yet [2][8]. - For treasury bond futures, the market divergence is large. Although the bond market has been weak recently, it is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias towards the end of the year due to potential broad - money policies and strong allocation demand [3][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month contract basis points are - 4.89, - 2.35, - 6.15, 3.19 respectively, with a change of - 6.30, - 2.93, - 7.93, 5.69 points compared to the previous period. Their current - month and next - month contract spreads are 18.2, 7.0, 61.8, 92.2 points respectively, with a change of 3.6, 1.0, - 11.2, - 1.6 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, IM changed by - 6521, - 2454, - 5507, 2119 hands [7]. - **Logic**: The equity market was weak on Wednesday. The All - A index fell 0.3%, with over 4000 stocks declining. Only the price - rising chain and banks were resilient. The inflow of funds into the price - rising chain has slowed, and the market is in a sector rotation observation period, so a short - term cautious allocation is recommended [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM + Dividend [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Data**: The trading volume of each option variety increased slightly by 1.08%, with liquidity rising for 4 consecutive trading days but the increase rate slowing. The sentiment index (PCR of open interest) recovered, and the implied volatility decreased by an average of 1.14% [2][8]. - **Logic**: The equity index was oscillating and differentiated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.18%. Since there is no clear capital main - line, continue to hold covered strategies for defense [2][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered strategy [8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts are 66875, 54572, 28995, 100953 hands respectively, with a 1 - day change of 3202, 2656, - 5728, 11525 hands. Their open interests are 154751, 88573, 42295, 80575 hands respectively, with a 1 - day change of - 22730, - 12266, - 7951, - 16039 hands. Other data such as spreads and basis points are also provided [8]. - **Logic**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The bond market was weak but the decline was not large, mainly due to market divergence on the central bank's broad - money operations. Towards the end of the year, the bond market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [3][8][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillating with an upward bias; Hedging strategy: pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis points; Basis strategy: pay attention to basis widening; Curve strategy: the curve may remain steep [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It includes data such as the Eurozone's CPI in October (both month - on - month and year - on - year), the US retail sales and CPI in October, and the US unemployment - related data from September to November [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - In October, the consumer market maintained a steady growth trend, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 4.63 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 41.2 trillion yuan, a 4.3% increase [11]. - The Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated part of the central - fiscal subsidy funds for urban affordable housing projects in 2026 [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [12]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific variety, it gives the following outlooks: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Protein meal: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate, with an expected upward - trending range - bound movement for soybean and rapeseed meal [10]. - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [12]. - Hogs: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend [15]. - Natural rubber: Expected to fluctuate [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short at high prices [20]. - Cotton: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [21]. - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [24]. - Offset paper: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, international trade, weather, and policies to provide short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - **Logic**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined due to technical resistance, while CBOT soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil and soybean oil being stronger. The market is waiting for US economic data, and there are uncertainties in the Fed's monetary policy and Russian oil supply. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the planting progress in Brazil and Argentina is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is relatively high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in November, while exports decreased. The consumption of palm oil for biodiesel in Indonesia increased, and its inventory remained low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of domestic rapeseed is currently tight, but it is expected to increase later [2][9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. Protein Meal - **Logic**: The USDA's supply - demand report lowered the export forecast for US soybeans. The premium of US soybeans over South American soybeans is high, but Chinese purchases have returned. The crushing volume of US soybeans in October reached a new high. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. In China, the import profit of soybeans has recovered, and there are expectations of soybean auctions. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in recent years, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased. The soybean inventory of oil mills is high, and the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing but still high year - on - year [10]. - **Outlook**: CBOT soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 3000 [10]. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn spot price has a narrow fluctuation range, with a "strong in the south, weak in the north" pattern in ports. On the supply side, cold weather has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. In the demand side, the demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the China National Grain and Oil Information Center continues [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, as the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price is expected to remain strong [13]. Hogs - **Logic**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and there is sporadic bacon - curing in the south. In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days is slow. In the medium term, the supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend. The near - term contracts face high - capacity realization and post - poned inventory from secondary fattening, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [15]. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market sentiment is currently strong, but there are no new marginal bullish factors from the fundamental perspective. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, which supports the market to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price decline [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a wide range with high elasticity. There is no obvious trend in the short term [17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures showed a volatile trend and rose rapidly before the close, which was affected by overseas device news. The main reason for the support of the futures is the relatively stable trading of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Some downstream enterprises have made low - price replenishments, and the market has received short - term bottom support [20]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and the raw material side are under great pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices before there are obvious supply - demand contradictions in butadiene [20]. Cotton - **Logic**: In October, the Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded due to the downward adjustment of production expectations and the firm purchase price of Xinjiang cotton seeds. In November, the driving force for the rebound weakened, and the supply pressure increased as the production expectation was raised again and the listing peak season arrived. The downstream demand also weakened seasonally [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices [21]. Sugar - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again this week. In the medium - to - long term, both domestic and international sugar prices have downward drivers. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. The new sugar pressing in the Northern Hemisphere has started, and the supply pressure will gradually increase [22]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the short - term price range is expected to be between 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton [22]. Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures continued to decline, mainly because the long - side funds left after the price reached above 5500. There is an obvious position - shifting behavior this week, which has accelerated the exit of funds from the 01 contract. The supply - demand relationship has no serious contradictions, and both supply and demand are high [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely [24]. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The tender for offset paper has limited support. The offset paper futures have followed the pulp to weaken, but the overall fundamentals are still at the bottom in November. In the short term, factors such as paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream printing factories' rigid demand, and the limited driving force of tender prices affect the price. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market, and in the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to enter a sideways - consolidation phase [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures rebounded slightly in the first half of the week and then weakened again. The supply pressure is expected to ease seasonally in the first quarter of next year, but there is still long - term supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The inventory is expected to decline slowly in the short term and then increase seasonally [27]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of CITICS Futures showed different degrees of increase on November 19, 2025. The agricultural product index increased by 0.07% on that day, decreased by 1.18% in the past five days, increased by 0.52% in the past month, and decreased by 2.70% since the beginning of the year [186][187].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics having a slightly stronger pattern. [3] - In the short term, the prices of various energy and chemical products will mainly fluctuate, with different influencing factors and trends for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are loosening, and supply pressure persists. The price will fluctuate in the short term due to the uncertain geopolitical situation, the decline in US commercial crude inventories, and the support from refined oil cracking spreads. [7] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price will oscillate weakly. Factors such as OPEC+ production increase, the end of the Palestine-Israel conflict, and the possible restart of Russia-Ukraine talks have led to a high inventory and a weak demand, resulting in a high overvaluation of the absolute price. [8] - **High-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price will oscillate weakly. The supply may decrease due to the reduction of Russian exports, but the demand is weak, and the cracking spread is also weak. [8] - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strength of refined oil supports low-sulfur fuel oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, its current low valuation and the support from refined oil prices will cause it to fluctuate with crude oil. [10] - **Methanol**: High inventory restricts the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It will oscillate at a low level. The inventory is still at a historical high, and although there is a slight decline, it still suppresses the price. [25] - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price oscillates narrowly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand has certain support, but the market sentiment is uncertain after the spot price increase. [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The boosting effect is limited, and there is insufficient driving force for a unilateral increase. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is expected to decline in the off-season, resulting in a limited upward space for the price. [17] - **PX**: Rumors of blending oil have disturbed the market again. The price will oscillate slightly upward in the short term, affected by market sentiment and rumors of device maintenance. [11] - **PTA**: The upstream supports the valuation, and the new downstream filament production capacity is put into operation, with a marginal improvement in supply and demand. The price will fluctuate with the upstream cost, and the processing profit is temporarily supported. [13] - **Short Fiber**: The fundamentals are average, and it follows the upstream passively. The price will oscillate with the upstream, and the processing fee may be compressed. [20] - **Bottle Chip**: The slight rebound of upstream raw materials supports the price of polyester bottle chips. The price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has certain support. [22] - **Propylene**: The spot price strengthens in the short term, and PL oscillates. The spot has short-term support, and the demand has increased due to the restart of downstream maintenance devices. [30] - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in maintenance. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and high inventory. [29] - **Plastic**: The oil price drops, and the maintenance support is limited, so it oscillates. The price will oscillate, affected by factors such as the decline in oil prices and the high inventory of the upstream and middle reaches. [28] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending oil disturbs the market, and it oscillates after the rebound. The price will oscillate, affected by the uncertainty of the blending oil narrative and the pressure from the pure benzene inventory. [16] - **PVC**: High inventory restricts the price, and it may be anchored to production reduction. The price will be cautiously weak, and the market focuses on the production reduction logic and marginal device dynamics. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply and demand, it will oscillate. The supply and demand are expected to be poor, and the price will oscillate due to the possible increase in cost caused by the decline in liquid chlorine price. [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for the future price trends of different varieties. For example, the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is - 12, a change of - 4. [34] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also change. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 15, a change of - 13, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, PTA and ethylene glycol, etc., have also changed, which reflects the relative price relationship between different varieties. [36] 3.3 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content for analysis is provided in the text, so it is skipped. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and plate index of commodities have different degrees of increase. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2553.16, an increase of 0.73%. [278] - **Energy Index**: On November 19, 2025, the energy index increased by 1.26% today, 2.26% in the past 5 days, 2.56% in the past month, and decreased by 5.69% since the beginning of the year. [279]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/20 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: MFA responds to China's suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. Fu ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall configuration idea in the fourth quarter remains largely unchanged, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. Investors are advised to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and consider increasing allocations if there are appropriate pullbacks [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The core drivers of major assets this week are the "anticipatory front - running" after the US government's restart and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. With the absence of key inflation and employment data, the market has shifted from data - dependence to assumption - dependence. Weak high - frequency private indicators have led to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts, limiting the US dollar's rebound and lowering US Treasury yields. The financial attributes of precious metals have been continuously strengthened. However, the impact of the expected difference after front - running should be警惕 [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the economic data showed a weak and stable trend overall, and the boost of incremental policies to the fundamentals has not been reflected. Affected by factors such as the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak funds in place, a phased decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow down slightly but still showed resilience. The 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan of local government's unused quota withdrawals implemented in October are expected to take effect as early as the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year in October, and the financial data generally met expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: The overall configuration idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. The macro - environment is favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and consider increasing allocations if there are pullbacks in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.2 Market Performance of Various Asset Classes - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4565.2, up 0.22% daily, - 0.77% weekly, - 1.43% monthly, - 1.14% quarterly, and up 16.43% this year; the SSE 50 futures closed at 3011, up 0.45% daily, - 0.64% weekly, - 0.14% monthly, 0.74% quarterly, and up 12.43% this year; the CSI 500 futures closed at 7054.8, down 0.35% daily, - 2.59% monthly, - 3.23% quarterly, and up 23.92% this year; the CSI 1000 futures closed at 7298.2, down 0.73% daily, - 1.00% weekly, - 0.95% monthly, - 1.46% quarterly, and up 24.74% this year [3]. - **Treasury Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury futures closed at 102,462, down 0.03% daily, 0.01% weekly, - 0.08% monthly, 0.09% quarterly, and down 0.50% this year; the 5 - year Treasury futures closed at 105.88, down 0.04% daily, 0.00% weekly, - 0.17% monthly, 0.24% quarterly, and down 0.62% this year; the 10 - year Treasury futures closed at 108.425, down 0.07% daily, - 0.23% monthly, 0.54% quarterly, and down 0.46% this year; the 30 - year Treasury futures closed at 116.09, down 0.38% daily, - 0.06% weekly, - 0.51% monthly, 1.92% quarterly, and down 2.314% this year [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 99.5932, unchanged daily, up 0.31% weekly, - 0.14% monthly, - 8.19% this year; the euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1581; the US dollar - yen exchange rate was 155.525, up 0.64% weekly, 0.98% monthly, 5.14% quarterly, - 1.07% this year; the central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0872, up 16 pips daily, 47 pips weekly, - 8 pips monthly, - 183 pips quarterly, - 1012 pips this year [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.55, unchanged daily, up 8 bp weekly, 9 bp monthly, 10 bp quarterly, - 20 bp this year; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.82, up 0.6 bp daily, 0.4 bp weekly, 2.3 bp monthly, - 4.3 bp quarterly, 0.1 bp this year; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.12, down 1 bp daily, - 2 bp weekly, 0.1 bp monthly, - 4 bp quarterly, - 43 bp this year; the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.54, up 1 bp daily, 0 bp weekly, - 0.02 bp monthly, - 2 bp quarterly, 21 bp this year [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: For example, COMEX gold was at 4067.4, up 0.55% daily, - 0.42% weekly, 1.35% monthly, 4.62% quarterly, and up 54.11% this year; NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 60.57, up 1.42% daily, 1.03% weekly, - 0.51% monthly, - 2.98% quarterly, - 11.72% this year [3]. - **Domestic Commodities**: For example, domestic gold was at 937, up 2.01% daily, - 1.70% weekly, 1.64% monthly, 7.16% quarterly, and up 51.72% this year; the Shanghai - Europe container shipping line was at 1640.1, down 2.26% daily, 2.19% weekly, 5.57% monthly, - 0.16% quarterly, - 27.33% this year [2][4]. 3.3 Sector - by - Sector Views - **Finance**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner; stock index options are expected to be volatile; Treasury futures are expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [8]. - **Shipping**: The Shanghai - Europe container shipping line is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the rate of freight rate decline [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, coal, and building materials are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, with some like aluminum and lithium carbonate expected to rise in a volatile manner, and nickel expected to fall in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile, while oils and fats are expected to rise in a volatile manner, and some agricultural products like live pigs and sugar are expected to fall in a volatile manner [11]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with some like natural rubber and cotton expected to be volatile, and some like live pigs and sugar expected to fall in a volatile manner [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metals rebounded on Wednesday, with silver showing greater elasticity. Due to the upcoming release of important earnings reports of US stocks and key data such as the Fed's October meeting minutes and non - farm payroll data, and the continuous cooling of the labor market, the market may have some anticipatory trading. Attention should be paid to the release of this week's data [1][3]. - In the long - term, the bullish trend of precious metals remains. The core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit, such as excessive debt issuance and de - globalization, have not reversed. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Key Information - The Fed will release its October meeting minutes on Thursday at 3:00 am. There is increasing uncertainty among investors about the direction of US interest rates. Fed officials have significant differences on whether it is appropriate to further ease policy before the end of the year. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December is only 51% [2]. - The US trade deficit in August was $59.6 billion, better than the expected deficit of $61 billion. Exports were $280.8 billion, and imports were $340.4 billion [2]. - The eurozone's October CPI final value increased by 2.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The core CPI final value increased by 2.4% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [2]. b. Price Logic - In the short - term, precious metals rebounded on Wednesday, with silver showing greater elasticity. Market caution may prevail before the release of important US stock earnings reports. Based on the cooling labor market, anticipatory trading may occur, and attention should be paid to data releases this week [1][3]. - In the long - term, the bullish trend of precious metals remains. Gold is a hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. The global economic shift in 2026 is favorable for silver's elasticity. The expected range for London gold this week is [3800, 4200] dollars per ounce, and for London silver is [46, 53] dollars per ounce [3]. c. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2249.04, up 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2553.16, up 0.73%; the industrial products index was 2216.05, up 0.32%; the PPI commodity index was 1337.81, up 0.22% [42]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on November 19, 2025, had a daily increase of 2.58%, a 5 - day decline of 2.84%, a 1 - month increase of 0.78%, and a year - to - date increase of 51.31% [43].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the "Scheme" provides effective support for carbon prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [3]. - In the short - term, the increase in the basic carry - over volume of the three major industries leads to an increase in potential purchase demand, but it is necessary to note that it may not all be converted into market buying demand [3]. - In the long - term, the total quota gap of quota - deficient enterprises in the three major industries increases, and the supply - demand may be tight, which will drive up carbon prices [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Policy Adjustment - On November 17, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Scheme", which has two adjustments compared with the previous draft: the coefficient of carbon emission intensity and carbon emission intensity deviation is adjusted from 0.1 to 0.15, and the upper and lower limits of carbon emission intensity deviation are adjusted from ±30% to ±20%; the basic carry - over volume of key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries is adjusted from 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons. For key emission units included in two or more industries, the basic carry - over volume is adjusted to the sum of the basic carry - over volumes of key emission units in each industry (≥110,000 tons) [1]. Market Performance - On November 19, 2025, the carbon emission quota rose sharply in the early trading and hit the daily limit, with a slight pull - back at the close. The closing price was 66.86 yuan/ton, with a gain of over 8%. The trading volume for the whole day was 1.1464 million tons, a 17.6% increase from the previous day's trading volume [2]. Short - term Impact - The adjustment of the "Scheme" allows enterprises in the three major industries to buy more quotas before the end of the year to carry over to next year, increasing short - term potential purchase demand. After the adjustment, the potential purchase demand of newly added enterprises increased from 1.334 million tons to 13.34 million tons [3]. Long - term Impact - The increase in the coefficient of carbon emission intensity and carbon emission intensity deviation makes the quota surplus or deficit of enterprises larger. Considering that the quota carry - over policy only lasts until the end of 2025, in 2026, quota - surplus enterprises may be more inclined to "hoard" quotas, while quota - deficient enterprises will convert all quota gaps into market demand due to compliance requirements, so the supply - demand may be tight and drive up carbon prices [4]. Operation Suggestions - Quota - surplus enterprises should confirm whether the remaining quotas meet the maximum carry - over volume requirements, and sell the excess part on rallies; key emission units in the three newly included major industries in the national carbon market can pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips in the carbon market [4]. Noun Explanation - Carbon emission intensity coefficient: An indicator characterizing the advanced level of an enterprise's carbon emission intensity control; when an enterprise is better than the industry benchmark level, the value is >0; otherwise, the value is <0 [5]. - Carbon emission intensity deviation: In 2025, the carbon emission intensity coefficients of steel enterprises, cement clinker production lines, and aluminum electrolysis processes are based on the gap between the carbon emissions per ton of products in their main processes and the industry balance value [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of industrial silicon remains high, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon has significantly contracted. The anti - involution policy has little impact on industrial silicon, and its price may be under pressure. For polysilicon, the anti - involution policy has a clear impact, and its price has strong bottom support [4][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 10, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rebounded significantly. The industrial silicon main contract price exceeded 9,500 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon main contract price approached 55,000 yuan/ton. The smooth convening of the organic silicon industry production - reduction meeting and concerns about supply - side disturbances due to winter heating season contributed to the price rebound [4] Fundamental Situation Industrial Silicon - Supply: The supply of industrial silicon has a marginal contraction as the southwest dry season approaches, but the national monthly output is still expected to be above 350,000 tons, and supply pressure remains. - Demand: In November, the demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, and the demand from aluminum alloy has limited growth. - Inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are gradually being cleared in November [5] Polysilicon - Supply: The production of polysilicon will contract in November and December, with an estimated output of less than 120,000 tons in November and 110,000 tons in December. - Demand: The demand for polysilicon may weaken from November due to the decline in domestic photovoltaic installation and the weakening of the demand for battery and component exports in the fourth quarter [6] Summary and Strategy - Industrial silicon: It is recommended that investors use short - selling hedging. In terms of arbitrage, investors can gradually engage in the inter - period positive spread of industrial silicon. - Polysilicon: Investors can focus on selling put options of polysilicon [7]

伊 张默涵 从业资格号:F03097187 投资咨询号: Z0020317 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 三大行业基础结转量增加,碳价大幅上涨! 2025年11月17日,生态环境部发布《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和 分配方案》（下称《方案》）:对比生态环境部之前发布的征求意见稿,《方案》有两处调整:(1)碳排放强度与碳 排放强度偏离度的系数由0.1调整为0.15,碳排放强度偏离度上下限由±30%调整为±20%; (2)钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行 业重点排放单位基础结转量由1万吨调整为10万吨;对于纳入两个及两个以上行业的重点排放单位,其基础结转量由1万 吨调整为各行业重点排放单位基础结转量的总和(≥11万吨)。 2025/11/19 2025年11月19日,碳排放配额早盘直线拉升涨停,收盘略有回调,收盘价66.86元/吨,涨幅超8%。 能源转型与碳中和组 受《方案》的影响,碳价早盘直线拉升,并于10:53涨停,收盘时价格略有回调;全天成交量为114.64万吨,较昨日成交 量上涨17.6%。短期需关注基础结转量的增加带来的潜在需求是否能转化为有效的市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate remain tight, and the market is optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year, driving the continuous rise in lithium carbonate prices. In the context of good demand expectations, short - term trading is recommended. If the price回调 due to factors such as mine复产, it is more prudent to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons On November 19th, the lithium carbonate futures price strengthened again, with the main contract rising over 4% and the disk price approaching 100,000 yuan per ton. The core reason for this price rebound is the continuous improvement in the demand side. The demand for power batteries and energy - storage batteries remains high, driving the accelerated depletion of lithium carbonate inventory. The market has an optimistic demand expectation for next year. The prices of industrial chain materials are rising synchronously, enhancing the upward momentum of lithium carbonate. On November 18th, a seminar on "Cost Research in the Lithium Iron Phosphate Material Industry" was held, emphasizing the need to guide the industry's orderly development [3]. Fundamental Situation Supply of lithium resources is gradually recovering, but demand is stronger, and the supply - demand relationship remains in a tight balance. SMM data shows that the lithium carbonate production in October rose to 92,300 tons, and is expected to remain high from November to December. The demand side is strong. From November to December, there is still support. Policies such as "trade - in" and purchase tax relief promote the production and sales of new - energy vehicles. The energy - storage economy is improving, and the market's optimistic expectation for next - year's energy - storage demand will boost lithium carbonate in the long - term. The production of cathodes and electrolytes remains high, with lithium hexafluorophosphate rising over 190% since mid - July. The current inventory of lithium carbonate is continuously depleting, and it is expected to continue from November to December. The overall supply - demand pattern from November to December is still tight [4]. Summary and Strategy Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are tight, and the market's optimistic demand expectation for next year drives the price up. In the context of good demand expectations, short - term trading is recommended. If the price回调 due to factors such as mine复产, it is more prudent to buy on dips [5].