1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" outlook for the mid - term of the black building materials industry [7]. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the peak season draws to an end, although the demand for steel products has a slight month - on - month improvement, it cannot strongly support the prices of sector varieties. After the "15th Five - Year Plan" related meeting on October 23, the trading expectation around the introduction of favorable policies is expected to heat up. The fundamentals' guidance for prices will be "blunted", and short - term sector varieties may remain volatile. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened at the margin, but the overall contradiction is not significant. The overseas mine shipments have a slight month - on - month rebound, the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined from a high level, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The daily output of sample hot metal and the steel mill profitability rate have continued to decline slightly, but the hot metal is still at a high level. It is expected that the short - term price will fluctuate. The port trading volume is 122.9(+21.8) million tons, the swap main contract is 105.08(+0.52) dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 781(+4) yuan/ton [2][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel is relatively stable, with a significant decline in the arrival volume this week and a slight year - on - year decrease, and a slight rebound in yesterday's arrival at the port. The demand has seen a slight increase in the daily consumption of scrap steel due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival, and a decrease in the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel due to a slight decline in hot metal production. The inventory has increased slightly in steel enterprises. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the trend of finished products. The average tax - free price of shredded materials in East China is 2173(+1) yuan/ton, and the price difference between rebar and scrap steel in East China is 945(+9) yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The profit margins of the coking and steel sectors have both narrowed, and the game between coking plants and steel mills continues. With the hot metal remaining at a high level in the short term, the expectation of a price increase is strong. It is expected that the coke price will fluctuate. The futures market fluctuated yesterday, and the spot price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1470(+20) yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply has been disrupted, and capacity release is still restricted. The demand for coke production can provide rigid support in the short term, and the fundamentals are relatively healthy with low upstream inventory. However, with the steel under pressure, the upward driving force of furnace materials is temporarily limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will fluctuate in the short term. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1300 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1307 yuan/ton [12][13]. 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: Cost reduction is limited, steel production is at a high level, and macro - policy expectations support the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center may shift downward in the medium - to - long - term. The main contract price of silicomanganese rose yesterday. The ex - factory price of 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian ore blocks with 45.0% Mn at Tianjin Port is 39 yuan/ton - degree [16][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: High steel production, macro - policy expectations, and firm cost support the price. However, the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the rebound height of the ferrosilicon price is expected to be limited. The main contract price of ferrosilicon rose yesterday, and the ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5180(+50) yuan/ton [19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The upstream inventory has been continuously accumulating, and after the negative feedback between futures and spot, the short - term price shows a weak and volatile trend. The mid - stream has not significantly reduced inventory, and it is difficult to have a rebound in the short term. In the medium - to - long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to decline. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1140(-20) yuan/ton, and the national average price is 1196(-7) yuan/ton [3][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow the macro - fluctuations and have a wide - range volatile trend. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote production capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, the daily production is 105,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by about 10,000 tons on Monday [16]. 3.5 Steel Products - The spot market transactions are average, with a strong willingness to sell at low prices. The profit of blast furnaces and electric furnaces is not good, but the profitability rate of steel mills is still relatively high. The downward trend of hot metal is not obvious, and there is a situation of electric furnace restart. The supply of steel products is at a relatively high level. The demand continues to recover, but the recovery height is still limited. The steel inventory continues to decline, but the inventory level is still at a moderately high level. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate at a low level. The price of Hangzhou rebar is 3170(+20) yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260(+10) yuan/ton, the trading volume of construction steel is 107,573(+6,422) tons, and the trading volume of hot - rolled coil is 35,237(+2,107) tons [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core Views - The stock index futures market showed a volume - shrinking adjustment with overall resilience. After two consecutive days of gains, the market took a rest on Wednesday. The Wind All - A Index slightly declined by 0.38%. Defensive sectors like oil and gas and banks led the rise, while military and agricultural products led the decline. The A - share trading volume dropped to 1.69 trillion yuan, and the total position of stock index futures decreased by over 30,000 lots. The market is in a state of limited upside and downside, and it is advisable to hold a dumbbell - shaped structure and then shift to a growth - oriented allocation structure when the situation changes [1][7]. - The stock index options market witnessed a simultaneous decline in volume and volatility. The trading volume of the options market was 7815 million yuan, a 20.39% decrease from the previous day. The market liquidity declined, especially for small - and medium - cap varieties. The implied volatility index decreased by 0.51% on average. It is recommended to use covered call strategies to increase returns and also consider holding short straddles [2][7]. - The treasury bond futures market should focus on policy signal releases. The bond market showed a volatile performance. The expectation of loose monetary policy continued to boost the bullish sentiment in the bond market, and the central bank continued to conduct net injections in the open market, with a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan on the day. In the fourth quarter, there is a possibility of the implementation of quantitative tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, but the timing may be late. In the short term, caution is still needed, and attention should be paid to policy signals after the Fourth Plenary Session [2][7][9]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The current situation is a volume - shrinking adjustment with overall resilience. The basis, spread, and total position of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have changed. The operation suggestion is to hold dividend ETF + IM [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The volume and volatility have declined simultaneously, and covered call strategies can be used to deal with the situation. The trading volume of the options market decreased, the risk preference retracted, and the implied volatility continued to decline. The suggestions are covered call and short straddle strategies [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Attention should be paid to policy signal releases. The trading volume, position, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed. The central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 43.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The operation suggestions include trend strategies (volatility), hedging strategies (pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels), basis strategies (pay attention to basis widening), and curve strategies (the curve may remain steep) [7][9]. Economic Calendar - The economic data of China and the US for the week are presented, including China's October LPR, September fixed - asset investment, industrial added - value, social consumer goods retail sales, and the third - quarter GDP, as well as the US's September non - farm payrolls change [10]. Important Information and News Tracking - **Mergers and Acquisitions**: Shenzhen has launched an action plan for high - quality development of mergers and acquisitions from 2025 - 2027, aiming to improve the quality of listed companies, increase the total market value of listed companies, and promote the development of the mergers and acquisitions market [11]. - **Interest Rates**: In September 2025, the average interest rates of bank time deposits for different terms are provided, such as 0.944% for 3 - month deposits [11]. - **Huawei**: On October 22, Huawei released the HarmonyOS 6 special version, including the Harmony Galaxy Interconnection architecture with a transmission rate of 160MB/s, and enhanced functions such as "touch - to - share" [12]. - **US Government Shutdown**: The US government shutdown has entered the 22nd day, becoming the second - longest shutdown in history. The shutdown is likely to last until November [12]. Derivatives Market Monitoring - Information about the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures markets is mentioned, but specific data details are not provided in the given content [13][17][29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious metals continued the adjustment trend on Wednesday, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous day. They may enter a monthly - level adjustment, but the long - term bull market trend remains intact. The key factors to watch are Fed's monetary policy, personnel changes, geopolitical and trade changes [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information from Different Sections 1. Key News - Trump said that China and the US would reach a trade agreement at the APEC summit next week, but the two heads of state may not meet. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that they maintain close communication, and no specific information is available [2] - New Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae is preparing an economic stimulus plan worth over 13.9 trillion yen (about $92.19 billion) to help families cope with inflation. The plan focuses on anti - inflation measures, investment in growth industries, and national security. The specific scale is being finalized and may be announced next month [2] - UK's September CPI increased 3.8% year - on - year (expected 4%, previous 3.8%), and was flat month - on - month (ending the growth since February 2025, expected 0.2%, previous 0.3%). Core CPI increased 3.5% year - on - year (expected 3.7%, previous 3.6%) [2] 2. Price Logic - Precious metals continued the adjustment on Wednesday, with better performance during the Asian trading session. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets continued to repair upwards. Future focuses include Fed's monetary policy (the expectation of three rate cuts this year is well - priced, but 2026's rate - cut expectation is not), personnel changes (new Fed chair nomination may be confirmed after Thanksgiving), and the potential impact of Kaochi Sanae's right - wing tendency. In the long run, the bull market remains due to the shrinking of the US dollar's credit [3] 3. Outlook - This week, the price range of spot London gold is expected to be between $3900 and $4400 per ounce, and that of spot London silver is expected to be between $46 and $55 per ounce [3] 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indices include the commodity index (2234.80, - 0.20%), the commodity 20 index (2531.94, - 0.48%), and the industrial products index (2204.41, + 0.87%) [42] 5. Sector Index - For the precious metals index on October 22, 2025, the daily decline was 3.94%, the decline in the past 5 days was 2.56%, the increase in the past month was 12.63%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 50.14% [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On October 22, equity indices fell while most CGB futures rose. More commodities rose, with energy & chemicals performing strongly [2][10][13]. - The price of crude oil increased by 2.5% on October 22, but the rebound space is expected to be limited due to persistent downward pressure on fundamentals and uncertain macroeconomics and geopolitics [16][18]. - Gold and silver decreased by 3.9% on October 22. After the concentrated realization of bullish factors, the market may enter a phased correction period. However, in the long run, the bull market trend of precious metals has not yet reversed [23][27][28]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On October 22, equity indices fell (IC decreased by 0.8%), most CGB futures rose (TL increased by 0.1%), more commodities rose, and energy & chemicals performed strongly. Among commodities, the top three gainers were bitumen (up 2.9% with open interest up 2.7% month - on - month), rapeseed (up 2.5% with open interest up 6.5% month - on - month), and crude oil (up 2.5% with open interest up 5.1% month - on - month). The top three decliners were gold (down 3.9% with open interest down 6.0% month - on - month), silver (down 3.9% with open interest down 9.0% month - on - month), and RBD palm olein (down 1.7% with open interest up 3.8% month - on - month) [10][11][13]. 1.2 Daily Raise - Crude Oil - On October 22, crude oil increased by 2.5% to 447.2 yuan/barrel. The downward pressure on fundamentals persists, and the outlook for macroeconomics and geopolitics remains uncertain. The room for rebound is expected to be limited. API data shows a slight draw in U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories last week, but the sustainability of this trend is limited. The supply side is in a phase of production increase, and there is pressure for accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation [16][17][18]. 1.3 Daily Drop - Gold & Silver - On October 22, gold decreased by 3.9% to 952.56 yuan/gram, and silver decreased by 3.9% to 11404 yuan/kg. After nearly two months of upward trend since late August, the market may enter a phased correction period as some bullish factors are gradually digested. In the long run, the bull market trend of precious metals has not reversed, and the contraction of US dollar credit remains the core cornerstone [23][27][28]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Trump said he expected to reach a trade agreement with Chinese leader at the APEC summit, but the meeting might be canceled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that heads - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in Sino - US relations, and there is no information to share on the specific issue [3][38]. - The EU trade chief said that EU and Chinese officials have agreed to meet in Brussels for urgent talks on China's export controls on rare earth. The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized that China - EU economic and trade relations are win - win, and hopes the EU will uphold free trade principles [38][39]. 2.2 Industry News - Shenzhen has released the "Shenzhen Action Plan for Promoting High - Quality Development of Mergers and Acquisitions (2025 - 2027)", aiming to have the total market value of domestic and overseas listed companies exceed RMB 20 trillion by the end of 2027, cultivate 20 enterprises with a market value of over RMB 100 billion, and build a complete industrial chain M&A ecosystem [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The current volatility level is in a low - lying stage of accumulation. The "bad news is good news" logic may be coming to an end, and the internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated, with a possible phased increase. The domestic low - valued assets may have some support in the fourth quarter. There is a risk of increased volatility in global large - class assets next week [8]. - Domestic macro: The economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience with structural highlights. Policy expectations were further strengthened, which is expected to promote the increase of physical work volume in the fourth quarter. The low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter may have certain support [8]. - Asset views: There is a risk of increased volatility in global large - class assets next week. In the overseas market, the marginal support for risk assets may decline, and the volatility of precious metals and the equity market may increase. In the domestic market, there are marginal changes in the policy end, and the low - valued domestic commodity assets may have a rebound opportunity [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4563.4, down 0.31%; the SSE 50 futures at 3005.6, up 0.03%; the CSI 500 futures at 7011.6, down 0.58%; the CSI 1000 futures at 7163.2, down 0.27% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.358, down 0.01%; the 5 - year at 105.735, up 0.02%; the 10 - year at 108.145, unchanged; the 30 - year at 115.61, up 0.02% [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher, while the precious metals sector corrected. For example, in the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.58, up 1.14%; ICE Brent at 61.66, up 1.18%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold closed at 4138.5, down 5.39%; COMEX silver at 48.16, down 16.41% [4]. 3.2 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: The stock market had a shrinking - volume rebound, and the bond market continued to be weak. Stock index futures may see a shock - up trend due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options may fluctuate as market turnover declined slightly; treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Gold and silver prices may fluctuate due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade tensions [9]. - **Shipping Sector**: Attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline. The container shipping to Europe may be volatile as the peak season in the third quarter has passed and there is a lack of upward drivers [9]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel and ore prices have been under pressure. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as policy disturbances, production and supply, and cost [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Basic metals are waiting for the clarification of macro - policies and are in a state of shock. For example, copper prices may decline in the short term due to renewed trade frictions; aluminum prices may rise slightly as inventories are decreasing [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The trade tension has slightly eased, but the supply - demand pattern of energy and chemicals remains weak. Most products are expected to be volatile, with some products such as crude oil and LPG at risk of shock - down [11]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The sentiment has warmed up, but the trends are differentiated. Some products like cotton may see a shock - up due to rising purchase prices, while others like sugar may continue to be weak and volatile [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Bearish outlook, with palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil expected to oscillate weakly [2][5] - **Protein Meals**: Expected to oscillate, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal in a sideways trend [5] - **Corn and Starch**: Expected to oscillate, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [6][7] - **Hogs**: Expected to oscillate weakly, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [12] - **Cotton**: Expected to oscillate, with a price range of 13100 - 13800 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [13][15] - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommendation of selling on rebounds [16] - **Pulp**: Expected to oscillate weakly, dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand [18] - **Offset Paper**: Expected to oscillate, with support at the bottom during the tender season [19][20] - **Logs**: Expected to oscillate, with opportunities to go long on dips in the 01 contract in the short term [21] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday, causing domestic oils and fats to decline. The Malaysian palm oil inventory may continue to build up, and factors such as the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans and the seasonal decline in Indian vegetable oil imports increase the downward pressure on oils and fats [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade relations, with a low - level rebound. Domestically, there is a short - term expectation of increased US soybean imports, and the supply pressure is high. In the long term, the supply of soybean meal in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, while there may be a small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures price has declined slightly. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter progress has accelerated, and the rebound momentum has slowed down. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is in an oscillating and consolidating state. The recent rebound is a temporary oversold rebound, and the supply pressure is not significant for the time being. The demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price has returned to a narrow - range oscillation. The high production this year and the high social inventory are the main pressures. The raw material price has shown some support after a decline [12]. - **Cotton**: The purchase price has continued to rise slightly, boosting the cotton price. The estimated cotton production in Xinjiang has been revised down, and the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but there is a risk of correction after the rise [13]. - **Sugar**: The external market has continued to decline, and the weak pattern is difficult to change. In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is in a bear market [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the futures price is running at a low level. The supply - demand fundamentals are difficult to support a significant rise, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - **Offset Paper**: Tenders are gradually starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market is currently in a low - activity state, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - **Logs**: There is a game on the information side, and the price is oscillating. The special port fee issue is under implementation, and the market is in a weak state due to factors such as weak demand and inventory build - up [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by profit - taking and the possible build - up of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the price is under pressure. The macro environment and industrial factors are complex, with factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the production and export of soybeans and palm oil having an impact [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Internationally, US soybeans are affected by Sino - US trade and South American competition. Domestically, the short - term supply pressure is high, and the long - term supply situation varies. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price increase has slowed, and the futures price has declined. The short - term supply pressure is not fully released, and the long - term inventory is expected to be tight [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease with the reduction of sow capacity [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The recent rebound is an oversold one. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The high production and inventory are the main pressures, and the raw material price has shown some support [12]. - **Cotton**: The estimated production has been revised down, and the purchase price has risen, driving the price up. There is a risk of correction in the fourth quarter [13]. - **Sugar**: The long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term external market is weak. The internal market is relatively resistant to decline but may face downward pressure in the future [16]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the warehouse receipts have a negative impact on the futures price [18]. - **Offset Paper**: Tenders are starting, and there is support at the bottom. The market activity is low, and the cost support is general [19][20]. - **Logs**: The special port fee issue is affecting the market, and the demand is weak with inventory build - up [21]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various varieties including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data monitoring details are provided in the non - omitted content [23][42][55]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The rating standards include "bullish", "oscillating bullishly", "oscillating", "oscillating bearishly", and "bearish", with the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks and the standard deviation calculated as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price [176]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) are presented, with their respective values and changes [178][180].

Report Title - How to Trade the Coupon-Switching Market of Active 30Y Treasury Bonds? (20251022) [1] Core View - The spread evolution between new and old 30Y Treasury bonds generally shows an "M" shape, mainly influenced by liquidity premium [2] - Currently, the spread between 2400006 and 2500002 may be near the second peak of the "M" shape. If 2500002 becomes a non-active bond, there may be some convergence space for the spread. Attention can be paid to the spread convergence opportunity between 240006 and 2500002 and trading opportunities combined with Treasury bond futures [2] - The spread between 2400006 and 2500002 is currently at a relatively high level, and attention should be paid to the spread convergence opportunity [4]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with the overall outlook being "sideways" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the black building materials sector were generally stable yesterday, but steel and iron ore prices on the futures market continued to face pressure, dragging down coal and coke products. As the traditional off - season approaches, the actual demand for steel is unlikely to improve significantly. With the approaching of the blast furnace maintenance season for steel enterprises, there are still expectations of negative feedback in the industrial chain. However, in late October, the expectation of positive news from domestic and foreign macro - level meetings has increased, and short - term sector varieties are expected to remain volatile. Attention can be paid to the rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [2][3] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened at the margin, but the overall pressure is not prominent. With the still - existing macro - level expectation disturbances, a slight recovery in steel demand, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, the short - term price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. - Scrap steel: The contradictions in the scrap steel market are not prominent. With the current pressure on finished steel prices and poor EAF profits, the short - term price of scrap steel is expected to follow the trend of finished steel [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: In the short term, the supply and demand of coke are tight. With the deterioration of coking profits, the second - round price increase has been initiated. However, steel mills' profits are also poor, and the game between coking plants and steel mills continues. Whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be seen. The price of coke is expected to fluctuate. - Coking coal: Under the background of "anti - involution" and over - production inspections, the release of supply - side production capacity is restricted. The demand side still has rigid demand support from short - term coke production. With low inventories upstream, the fundamentals are relatively healthy. The price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate [2] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: Cost, high steel production, and macro - policy expectations support the price of manganese silicon, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the medium - to - long - term price center may still decline. - Ferrosilicon: Ferrosilicon is also supported by high finished steel production, policy expectations, and cost. However, the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still faces downward pressure in the later stage [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot sales of glass are weak. After the synchronous decline of the spot and futures markets, the short - term price fluctuates weakly. Currently, the middle - stream has not significantly reduced inventory, and there is little chance of a short - term rebound. In the long - term, market - based capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to decline. - Soda ash: The pattern of over - supply in the soda ash market remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following macro - level changes in the future, and the long - term price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: The recovery of post - holiday demand is limited, and steel inventories are at a moderately high level. Fundamental contradictions still exist, and the upper limit of the futures price is suppressed. With important domestic meetings this week, attention should be paid to policy - related disturbances. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] - Iron ore: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate due to marginal weakening of fundamentals, macro - level disturbances, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations [7] - Scrap steel: With its own fundamentals having no prominent contradictions, the short - term price is expected to follow the trend of finished steel due to pressure on finished steel prices and poor EAF profits [9] - Coke: In the short term, the supply and demand of coke remain tight. With the continuous deterioration of coking profits, the second - round price increase has been initiated, but it still needs time to be implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [11] - Coking coal: With supply still restricted and good auction results, the price is expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Glass: The spot sales are weak, and the short - term price fluctuates weakly. There is little chance of a short - term rebound. In the long - term, it is expected to decline if the market focuses on fundamentals [12] - Soda ash: The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following macro - level changes, and the long - term price center will decline [14] - Manganese silicon: Cost, high steel production, and macro - policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center may decline [14][15] - Ferrosilicon: Although supported by high finished steel production, policy expectations, and cost, the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still faces downward pressure [16] 3.6 Index Information - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index was 2239.21, up 0.35%; the commodity 20 index was 2544.06, up 0.41%; the industrial products index was 2185.29, up 0.06%; the PPI commodity index was 1323.60, up 0.10%. - Plate Index: The steel industry chain index on October 21, 2025, was 1968.47, with a daily decline of 0.39%, a 5 - day increase of 0.42%, a 1 - month decline of 2.87%, and a decline of 6.63% since the beginning of the year [102][103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market preference is rising. The stock index futures are led by technology stocks, the implied volatility of stock index options continues to decline, and the bond market of treasury bond futures strengthens due to the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy [1]. - Before the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, a bullish view is maintained. Technology and anti - involution may become the consensus directions, and there may be opportunities in elastic sectors recently. After the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, focus on tracking the market trading volume [8]. - The bond market is affected by the change in tariff war expectations and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. The stock - bond跷跷板 effect may weaken [2][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The equity market continued its upward trend, with technology stocks leading for the second consecutive day. The Sci - Tec 50 and ChiNext Index both rose by around 3%. The market trading volume increased to around 1.9 trillion, and the number of daily limit stocks reached 90. It is recommended to focus on the dumbbell configuration. After the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, track the market trading volume [8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety increased slightly by 1.47%, maintaining a liquidity level below 10 billion. The implied volatility of each option variety decreased by an average of 1.61%. It is recommended to continue to hold the covered call strategy [9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.16% respectively. The bond market was affected by the change in tariff war expectations and the increasing expectation of loose monetary policy. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for trends, hedging, basis, and yield curve [9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On October 20, 2025, China released a series of economic data, including the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR), September's urban fixed - asset investment annual rate, industrial added value annual rate, total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate, and the third - quarter GDP annual rate. The US also released the forecast for the September non - farm payrolls change [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - On October 20, the Ministry of Commerce held a policy interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises. The central bank will accelerate legislation in key and emerging fields. Guangdong Province issued an action plan for AI to empower the high - quality development of the manufacturing industry. Japanese central bank officials believe there is no need to raise the benchmark interest rate next week [12][13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content. Only the headings for data collection are given [14][18][30].