1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, ratings include: "Weakly Bullish" (Urea), "Bullish within a Range" (Crude Oil, Asphalt, High - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, PX, PTA, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Methanol, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, Caustic Soda, Styrene), and "Weakly Bearish" (Crude Oil, PP, LLDPE, PL, PVC, Caustic Soda) [4][8][9][10][11][12][13][15][16][17][20][21][23][24][25][26][28][29][30][32][33][34] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ may increase production beyond expectations in the meeting on September 7, which will exacerbate supply pressure and make the oversupply situation in the global crude oil market in Q4 2025 more severe. The price of oil is expected to be weak. The decline in raw material prices has dragged down the chemical industry. The weak pattern of olefins will continue. The implementation of measures such as "reducing oil and increasing chemicals" by Chinese leading petrochemical enterprises may weaken the upcoming anti - involution efforts in the petrochemical industry. Investors are advised to approach oil and chemical investments with a range - bound mindset and wait for the implementation of specific anti - involution policies in the domestic petrochemical industry [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about production increases have resurfaced. OPEC+ may increase production beyond expectations in the September 7 meeting, and the US has threatened to impose more sanctions on Russia. The supply pressure is increasing, and the oil price is expected to be weak [2][8] - **Asphalt**: The upward trend has paused. The market is focusing on negative factors such as tariff increases and OPEC+ production increases. The supply shortage has been alleviated, and demand remains unoptimistic [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price is fluctuating. The market is concerned about negative factors, but geopolitical premiums have increased. The increase in warehouse receipts limits price increases [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates with crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low valuation [12] - **Methanol**: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and the price is fluctuating. Inner Mongolia's market sentiment is good, but port inventories have increased. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdowns in the far - term, there may be opportunities for long - positions in the far - term [24][25] - **Urea**: The market stalemate continues and is expected to strengthen. The market is waiting for the Indian tender information. The supply is expected to decrease, and autumn demand is expected to pick up [25][26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a game between low - inventory support and divergent expectations. The commodity sentiment is cold, and the polyester sales are falling. There is pressure on future supply [17][18] - **PX**: The sales of polyester downstream are poor, and sellers are under pressure to lower prices. The macro - financial market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and PX lacks positive support [13] - **PTA**: It is oscillating to find support, with cost and sentiment determining the direction. The commodity market sentiment is poor, and polyester sales are flat. There is support at the bottom, but processing fees may be compressed [13] - **Short - Fiber**: Sales are mediocre, and the sustainability of the peak season is questionable. The upstream cost is poor, and the supply - demand situation has weakened. It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [20][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: The upstream cost is poor, and its own driving force is weak. It follows the cost fluctuations of raw materials [21] - **PP**: The oil price has fallen, and the support from maintenance is limited. The supply is increasing, and the demand support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [29][30] - **Propylene (PL)**: It fluctuates with PP in the short - term. The downstream cost pressure is increasing, and the price is mainly adjusted within a narrow range [30] - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The oil price has decreased, and it fluctuates weakly. The oil price is under pressure, and the actual impact of domestic measures to address overcapacity is limited. The fundamentals are under pressure [28] - **Pure Benzene**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price will fluctuate weakly. The import volume is increasing, and the demand of downstream products has not improved significantly [14][15][16] - **Styrene**: Short - sellers have reduced their positions, and the market has rebounded. The inventory is at a high level, and the demand of downstream products is poor. There is support at a certain price level, but there is a risk of further decline in valuation [16][17] - **PVC**: Weak reality suppresses its performance, and it operates weakly. The macro - policy has not been implemented, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The cost has decreased, and the export expectation is under pressure [33] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has temporarily reached a peak, and the market is cautiously bearish. The macro - policy has not been implemented, and the fundamentals have marginally improved. Considering the expected alumina production in the far - term, the downward space is limited [33][34] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in spreads [35] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on basis and warehouse receipts for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are provided, along with their changes [36] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - variety spread data, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, showing the changes in spreads [38] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - The report mentions monitoring of basis and spreads for products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented [39][52][64] 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 3, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index), and sector index (energy index) of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index showed different degrees of change. For example, the energy index increased by 0.16% on the day, 1.59% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.39% in the past month, and decreased by 0.59% since the beginning of the year [281][282][284]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "oscillating" [5]. - For individual varieties, the mid - term outlooks for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all "oscillating" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the military parade on the sector is gradually diminishing. As coal - coking and steel enterprises resume production, the demand for furnace materials is increasing, especially for iron ore. However, the overall upward movement of the sector's prices depends on the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector sentimentally [1]. - Overall, the terminal demand during the peak season needs to improve for the sector to rise again. Attention should also be paid to the boosting effect of strengthened policy expectations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The intraday futures prices of the sector rose and then fell, and the night - session continued the oscillating and pressured trend, mainly due to the impact of the military parade on the supply - demand side of the industrial chain. After the parade, some enterprises resumed production, increasing the demand for furnace materials, especially for iron ore. The overall upward movement of the sector's prices requires the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector [1]. 2. Analysis of Different Elements and Products Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The low profit of electric furnaces due to pressured finished - product prices and the tight supply lead to an expected short - term price oscillation [2]. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating. After the parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price [2]. Alloys - Manganese ore and coke prices are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [2][12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][15]. 3. Analysis of Individual Varieties Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is generally weak. Affected by the military parade, steel production and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. After the parade, the hot metal production may return to a high level, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the futures price [7]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. The port inventory decreased, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [7]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel decreased this week. Due to the pressured finished - product prices, the electric - furnace profit is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both electric furnaces and blast furnaces decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Coke - The expectation of the eighth round of price increases has basically failed, and the market sentiment is bearish. After the parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating [9][11]. Coking Coal - After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [11][12]. Glass - The demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [13][15]. Manganese Silicon - The prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16]. Ferrosilicon - The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each financial derivative, it gives a "neutral" outlook, indicating a "hold" or "neutral" stance on trading in these markets [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the stock index futures market has ebbed, with the All-A Index falling for two consecutive days, a significant reduction in trading volume, and multiple signs of weakening capital. It is recommended to shift to a barbell-style allocation and consider reducing positions [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, the equity market performed weakly. It is recommended to continue holding put options for defense [1][6]. - The bond market has returned to the stock-bond seesaw logic. If the stock market continues to adjust, the bullish sentiment in the bond market may further increase; otherwise, the bond market may give back its gains. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of the stock market [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The All-A Index fell 1.19% for two consecutive days, with military, non-bank, and software sectors leading the decline. Trading volume shrank to around 2.4 trillion, and the number of falling stocks exceeded 4,000. There are multiple signs of weakening capital, such as the breaking of the China Securities Convertible Bond and Microcap Index, the widening of the discount of IC and IM, and the decline in the proportion of margin trading purchases [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in IM + dividend style or hold half of the long positions in IM [6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: The equity market was weak, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%. The trading volume of each option variety decreased, the PCR of open interest continued to decline, and the implied volatility showed mixed trends [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold put options for defense [1][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The bond market returned to the stock-bond seesaw logic. The stock market was weak, and the Shanghai Composite Index adjusted, which may have driven up risk aversion and bullish sentiment in the bond market. The open interest of the main contracts of each variety increased, especially the T and TL contracts [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The trend strategy is neutral. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, pay attention to long-end arbitrage opportunities. For curve strategies, pay attention to steepening the yield curve [6][7]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar shows data on the EU's unemployment rate, CPI, core CPI, PPI, and the US's ISM manufacturing PMI and ADP employment data from September 1 - 4, 2025 [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held its second meeting, aiming to strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies and promote the stable and healthy development of the bond market [10]. - According to the China Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.952 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 14.698 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers was 2.409 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 17.934 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the text [11][15][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On September 3, the spot gold price reached $3,560 per ounce, hitting a new historical high, and the spot silver price rose to $41 per ounce, a 14 - year high [2][4]. - Fed officials' speeches and economic data on Wednesday evening strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. The U.S. July JOLTs job openings dropped to 7.181 million, far lower than expected, and factory orders were - 1.3%, still in the contraction range, indicating weak economic momentum [4]. - Looking ahead, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions in the market. Technically, gold's next target is $3,900 - $4,000, and silver may challenge the historical high of $49 - $50 [4]. - The weekly range for London gold spot is [3350, 3600], and for London silver spot is [38, 42] [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Key Information - Trump called for "substantial" interest rate cuts from the Fed [3]. - The federal appellate court ruled that most of Trump's comprehensive tariff measures were illegal, and the tariff case may go to the Supreme Court [3]. - Russia expects to continue negotiations with Ukraine but requires recognition of "new territorial realities" and the establishment of a new security system [3]. Price Logic - The speeches of Fed officials and economic data on Wednesday evening strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. The decline in JOLTs job openings and the contraction of factory orders indicated a weakening economy, supporting the interest - rate cut expectation [4]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks are the core contradictions in the market. Technically, gold has an upward target, and silver may reach a historical high. Attention should be paid to potential fluctuations [4]. Market Outlook - The weekly range for London gold spot is [3350, 3600], and for London silver spot is [38, 42] [4]. Index Information - On September 3, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index increased by 0.17%, 0.29%, and 0.05% respectively [42]. - The precious metals index rose 0.90% on September 3, 2025, 4.26% in the past 5 days, 4.89% in the past month, and 29.14% since the beginning of the year [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 3, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodity futures fell, with lithium carbonate and SCFIS(Europe) dropping by over 3% [2][9][10][11] - Gold increased by 1.3% to 814.88 yuan/gram due to the U.S. Manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations; the next target price level for gold is seen at $3,900 - $4,000 [14][15][16] - Iron ore increased by 0.7% to 777 yuan/ton, with high demand, stable supply and inventory, and expected price fluctuations in the later market [19][21][22] - Crude oil increased by 0.7% to 493.2 yuan/barrel, with prices expected to fluctuate with a weak bias, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine issue negotiations [26][27][28] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 3, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodity futures fell, with lithium carbonate and SCFIS(Europe) dropping by over 3% [9][10][11] - The top three gainers in China's commodity futures are egg (up 2.6% with open interest down 14.1% month - on - month), gold (up 1.3% with open interest up 2.7% month - on - month), and ethenylbenzene (up 1.0% with open interest down 6.1% month - on - month) [9][11] - The top three decliners in China's commodity futures are lithium carbonate (down 3.1% with open interest down 0.6% month - on - month), SCFIS(Europe) (down 3.0% with open interest down 4.1% month - on - month), and sodium hydroxide (down 2.7% with open interest up 4.8% month - on - month) [10][11] - In financial futures, IH and IC recorded relatively large declines of 1.3%, while TL saw a relatively large increase of 0.46% [10][11] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold - On September 3, gold increased by 1.3% to 814.88 yuan/gram; the U.S. Manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations supported gold prices [14][16] - The next target price level for gold is seen at $3,900 - $4,000, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and political intervention risk are core market contradictions [15][16] 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On September 3, iron ore increased by 0.7% to 777 yuan/ton; demand is high, supply and inventory are stable, and prices are expected to fluctuate later [19][21][22] - Overseas mine shipments and 45 - port arrivals increased month - on - month; Hebei steel plant maintenance may lead to a limited decline in pig iron production; post - parade demand may return to a high level [20][21][22] - This week, port inventory decreased, port congestion increased, plant inventory decreased, and total inventory declined slightly [21][22] 1.2.3 Crude Oil - On September 3, crude oil increased by 0.7% to 493.2 yuan/barrel; prices are expected to fluctuate with a weak bias, and short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine issue negotiations should be noted [26][28] - Concerns over U.S. - Venezuela conflicts and Trump's attitude towards Russia add to geopolitical premiums; OPEC+ production hikes bring supply pressure, and U.S. production resilience is evident [27][28] - Crude oil inventories face dual pressures from refinery operating rate decline and OPEC+ production increases, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited [27][28] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of September 3, the gathering marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War was held at Tian'anmen Square in Beijing [30] 2.2 Industry News - On September 2, Southbound capital recorded a net purchase of HKD 9.281 billion, pushing its annual net purchases beyond HKD 1 trillion, a new record; this year, the cumulative net investment in the Hong Kong stock market has approached HKD 4.7 trillion [31] - In August 2025, the number of newly opened A - share trading accounts was 2.65 million, a 165% year - on - year increase [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, most equity indices and CGB futures declined, while commodities showed mixed performance, with poly-silicon leading the gainers and lithium carbonate leading the losers [2][9][10][11]. - The anti-involution policy has significantly boosted the price of poly-silicon, but there is still pressure on the actual supply and demand, and it is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy [19][20]. - The price of silicon metal will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and if production resumption becomes concentrated, the price may come under pressure [23][26][27]. - A supply-demand gap in the domestic lithium carbonate market is gradually emerging, but the shortage is not significant, and it is necessary to be vigilant against extreme price movements caused by position liquidation [31][32][33]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 2, most equity indices and CGB futures declined. Among commodities, some rose while others fell, with poly-silicon leading the gainers and lithium carbonate leading the losers [9][10][11]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon (up 4.0% with open interest down 3.0% month-on-month), SCFIS(Europe) (up 3.6% with open interest up 3.6% month-on-month), and LSFO (up 2.5% with open interest up 11.8% month-on-month) [9][11]. - The top three decliners were lithium carbonate (down 4.3% with open interest up 2.6% month-on-month), ethylene glycol (down 2.2% with open interest up 6.5% month-on-month), and IM (down 1.8% with open interest up 6.9% month-on-month) [10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Poly-Silicon - On September 2, poly-silicon increased by 4.0% to 51875 yuan/ton. The anti-involution sentiment has heated up, leading to increased volatility in prices [15][20]. - On the macro front, six government departments held a joint symposium on the PV industry, and Reuters reported more information on the industry restructuring plan, boosting the anti-involution sentiment [16][20]. - On the supply side, the operating production capacity in Southwest China has improved with the arrival of the high-water season, and it is necessary to monitor the impact of the anti-involution policy on supply in the medium to long term [17][20]. - On the demand side, the growth rate of PV installed capacity from January to May increased significantly, but it has overdrawn the demand in the second half of the year, and there is a risk of weakening subsequent demand [18][20]. 1.2.2 Silicon Metal - On September 2, silicon metal increased by 1.1% to 8470 yuan/ton. The price will continue to fluctuate in the short term under the influence of macro sentiment and coal prices [23][26][27]. - On the supply side, the overall supply pressure is likely to continue rising, mainly from the northwest region, while the southwest region has limited new supply in the follow-up [24][26][27]. - On the demand side, there are signs of a certain improvement month-on-month, driven by the resumption of production by poly-silicon enterprises and a slight increase in the operating rate of organic silicon [25][27]. - In terms of inventory, recent changes have been small, but social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate as output recovers [26][27]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Lithium Carbonate - On September 2, lithium carbonate decreased by 4.3% to 72620 yuan/ton. The first wave of sentiment impact caused by the production suspension at the Jianxiawo Mine has ended, and the market has returned to the stage of gaming over mine production suspensions [29][32]. - Fundamentally, a supply-demand gap is gradually emerging, but the data is more lackluster than expected. The weekly output decreased slightly month-on-month, and the monthly output in August exceeded expectations, indicating accelerated supply release [30][33]. - Demand continues to grow, and September is about to enter the peak season, with expected month-on-month growth. Social inventories have decreased slightly, but warehouse receipts have been gradually recovering since August [30][33]. - Overall, the supply-demand gap is not significant, and it is necessary to be vigilant against extreme price movements caused by position liquidation and mainly adopt range-bound trading strategies [32][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of September 2, President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh held the 7th China-Russia-Mongolia trilateral meeting of heads of state at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. President Xi put forward three proposals for advancing China-Russia-Mongolia cooperation [35][37]. - On the same morning, President Xi held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a visa-free policy trial for Russian citizens holding ordinary passports from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [37]. 2.2 Industry News - On September 1, the margin balance of A-shares reached 2.28 trillion yuan, hitting a record high in the history of A-shares [38]. - Starting from September 10, 2025, SHFE will further expand the range of tradable products available to Qualified Foreign Investors, including bitumen futures contracts and fuel oil, bitumen, and woodpulp option contracts [38][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has pushed up market expectations of interest rate cuts. Although there are positive feedbacks on investment and consumption, there are still tail risks. Domestically, the market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved, and recent real - estate policies in first - tier cities may boost transaction volume [7]. - In the short term, market volatility in China may increase. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. The political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, pushing up market interest - rate cut expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the improvement of mid - stream profits in July. In the real - estate market, first - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, which may increase transaction volume but the sustainability needs to be observed [7]. - **Asset Views**: In China, short - term market volatility may increase at the beginning of September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, supporting total demand recovery [7]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options will fluctuate, and treasury bond futures will also be in a shock state, still depending on the performance of the stock market [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to rise in shock as the US interest - rate cut cycle may restart in September, but market risks need attention [8]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line may fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to be in a shock state due to factors like inventory changes, policy influences, and supply - demand relationships [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Although the weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, the weak demand also needs attention. Most varieties will be in a shock state, with zinc prices expected to fall in shock [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to fall in shock, while most other chemical products will be in a shock state due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, new - capacity pressures, and cost changes [10]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, including grains, oils, and fibers, are expected to be in a shock state, waiting for further information such as field inspection results [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange launched a large - scale IPO mechanism reform on August 4, 2025, aiming to balance the new - share allocation ratio between institutional and retail investors [2]. - In August 2025, the number of new stocks was small, and the new - share subscription opportunities were limited. The new - share subscription yield was thin, and the basis difference dragged down the portfolio return. This situation may continue in September [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 New - share Subscription Rules - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO reform requires issuers to allocate at least 40% of new shares to institutional investors, who can participate in new - share pricing through a 40% book - building allocation share [2]. - The retail investors' allocation ratio has decreased. For example, when a new stock is over - subscribed 100 times, the retail allocation ratio drops to 35% [2]. - The initial public shareholding ratio is set according to market capitalization brackets, with the initial public shareholding ratio of H - shares decreasing from 15% to 10% [2]. - At least 25% of an issuer's shares after listing should be freely tradable to prevent excessive concentration of chips [2]. 3.2 Market Environment - In August 2025, only three new stocks were listed on the main board and the Star Market and ChiNext, with a total market capitalization of less than 10 billion yuan. The new - share subscription success rate and the number of offline institutional subscriptions decreased significantly compared to the first half of the year [2]. - In September 2025, it is expected that 3 new stocks will be listed on the Star Market and ChiNext, and new - share subscription opportunities remain limited [2]. 3.3 New - share Subscription Yield - With a 150 - million - yuan stock bottom - position, the offline new - share subscription portfolio yield in August was about - 0.33%. The significant loss was mainly due to the impact of the market on the basis difference [3]. - In August, due to a deep discount at the beginning of the month and a large influx of speculative funds into the futures market, the discounts of IF and IH accelerated to converge. The monthly bottom - position hedging loss was about - 0.42%, and the new - share income could not cover the cost of discount convergence [3]. - In September, the IF discount is still deep, and the impact of the basis difference on the portfolio strategy cannot be underestimated. It is recommended to wait for the IF discount to converge and more new - share subscription opportunities to appear before making in - depth arrangements [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillation [6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillation [6] - **Corn/Starch**: Weak oscillation [7] - **Live Pigs**: Oscillation [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillation [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillation [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [13] - **Sugar**: Weak oscillation [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillation [16] - **Logs**: Weak oscillation [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, and the pig price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" policy may lead to a turnaround in the pig cycle in 2026 [1][8]. - Oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, but have a high probability of running strongly in the medium term [6]. - Protein meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge [6]. - The market sentiment for corn should not be overly pessimistic. Traders are pre - arranging to stock up, and there are opportunities for short - term profit - taking and long - term low - buying [7][8]. - The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber follows the oscillation of natural rubber, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger from now to early October, with the key to upward breakthrough being the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. - Sugar prices are under increasing supply pressure and are expected to run weakly [15]. - The core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. - The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs in the second half of the year is expected to increase. In the long term, the "anti - involution" policy aims to eliminate excess capacity, but there are resistance to active production cuts [1][8]. - **Demand**: The temperature is getting cooler, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is expanding, and the price ratio of meat to pigs is stable [1][8]. - **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year, with the main goal of destocking before the National Day [1][8]. - **Outlook**: Before the National Day, the spot and near - month pig prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract prices are supported by the expectation of supply - side capacity reduction, presenting a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [2][8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Macro Environment**: The market focuses on the Fed's September monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and US crude oil supply and demand [6]. - **Industrial End**: The drought - affected area of US soybeans is expanding, and the export demand of US soybeans is affected by Sino - US trade relations. The inventory of domestic soybeans and rapeseed has different trends, and attention should be paid to trade negotiations and policies [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, oils and fats may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the medium term, they are more likely to run strongly [6]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **International Situation**: The excellent rate of US soybeans is high, and attention should be paid to weather changes. The discount of Brazilian soybeans has been adjusted, and the export of US soybeans is affected by the trade war [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is expected to improve. There is no supply gap before December, and attention should be paid to trade relations and national reserve auctions [6]. - **Outlook**: The internal - external price difference may be repaired, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Supply**: The inventory of old - crop corn is decreasing, and new - crop corn is about to be listed. There are doubts about whether there will be a supply gap during the transition period [7][8]. - **Demand**: The downstream inventory is seasonally low, and the procurement intention of large feed enterprises is low, but small enterprises in South China are replenishing stocks [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, short - term short positions are recommended to take profits, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be waited for. In the long term, there is a low - buying opportunity [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of various rubber products and raw materials have different changes, and the global natural rubber production and consumption have different trends [9]. - **Logic**: The upward driving force of rubber prices is limited, but the downside support is strong. There are many speculative themes, and the short - term supply may decrease while the demand is rigid [9][11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have different trends [12]. - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market follows the natural rubber market, and the short - term tightness of raw material butadiene provides cost support [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Supply**: The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level in the same period, and the supply pattern is tight before the new cotton is listed [13]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and the orders are increasing [13]. - **Purchase**: The expected purchase price of seed cotton by ginners may increase, but the expected large increase in new cotton production will suppress the increase [13]. - **Outlook**: From now to early October, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the key to upward breakthrough is the purchase price. After the large - scale listing of new cotton, prices may be under pressure [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **International Market**: In the new crushing season, the sugar production in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar is in the pure sales period, and the import volume is increasing [15]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to run weakly [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Market Situation**: The pulp futures have been weak, and the main reason for the decline is the low market acceptance of Brilliant Needle pulp [16]. - **Outlook**: The internal contradictions of the pulp market are divided, and the trend is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Market Situation**: The log market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations, with some positive factors such as cost support and reduced supply pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [8] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum alloy: Oscillating [13] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [16] - Lead: Oscillating [17] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23] - Stainless steel: Oscillating in the short - term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Report's Core View - Overall non - ferrous metals: Weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues are driving up the prices of basic metals. In the medium and short - term, prices are supported but the weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions support prices [1]. - Copper: Macro factors and supply disruptions support prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the US copper tariff is a negative factor [7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Aluminum: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Aluminum alloy: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Zinc: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Lead: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Nickel: The market expects Indonesia's RKAB approval soon, so the price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and the industry needs to observe the raw material and macro factors [23]. - Stainless steel: The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the implementation of the peak season and inventory changes need attention [24]. - Tin: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Information analysis: The Fed may cut interest rates, US GDP growth is better than expected, copper production has decreased, the spot premium has declined, and inventory has increased [7]. - Main logic: Macro factors and supply disruptions support copper prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the demand needs to be observed [7]. - Outlook: Copper may oscillate [8]. 3.2 Alumina - Information analysis: Spot prices have declined, some enterprises have reduced production due to environmental protection, and warehouse receipts have increased [8]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly, with opportunities for short - selling and reverse arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: The price and inventory of aluminum have changed, an Indonesian enterprise is expected to be put into production, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [10]. - Main logic: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Outlook: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [12]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information analysis: The price and spread of aluminum alloy have changed, the exchange has adjusted margins and price limits, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [13]. - Main logic: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Outlook: Short - term prices are oscillating at a low level, and there is room for recovery and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [15]. 3.5 Zinc - Information analysis: The spot discount and inventory of zinc have increased, and a smelter will conduct maintenance [15]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. 3.6 Lead - Information analysis: The price, spread, and inventory of lead have changed, and the market transaction is light [16]. - Main logic: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.7 Nickel - Information analysis: The inventory of nickel has increased, and there are many industry news items [19]. - Main logic: The market sentiment dominates the price, the industry fundamentals are weakening marginally, and short - term trading is recommended [23]. - Outlook: The nickel price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - Information analysis: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts has increased, and the production in Indonesia is normal [24]. - Main logic: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron have changed, production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. - Outlook: The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. 3.9 Tin - Information analysis: The inventory and price of tin have changed, and a company will conduct maintenance [25]. - Main logic: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase [25].