1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The European diesel cracking spread is expected to return to fundamental - based pricing, with limited downside potential, and is projected to trade sideways at a high level in December. Europe's long - term structural capacity withdrawal will support the bottom [5][9][11] 3. Summary according to Related Catalogs Price Movement - The monthly average of ICE Gasoil Crack Spread in November was $29.78 per barrel, a 26 - month high, with the highest intraday closing price reaching $35.77 per barrel. After peaking, it gradually pulled back, closing at approximately $25.36 per barrel on December 1st [4] Fundamentals Supply - Europe's refinery autumn maintenance season is in the final stage, and its impact has weakened significantly. New refinery projects in India and Bahrain have started operations, adding supply to the market. Rumors about China's first batch of quotas for 2026 have also affected market expectations [6][9] Demand - As the largest heating oil market in Northwest Europe, France's diesel imports have been sluggish, and the seasonal consumption pattern has not fully started. Currently, European temperatures are below normal, and Germany's fuel tax will increase in January 2026, which may prompt enterprises to replenish heating oil inventories in December, boosting short - term demand. There are still expectations for the peak heating season in December [7][9] Inventory - ARA diesel inventories are still above the 5 - year historical average for the same period but show signs of destocking [8][9] Outlook - The European Gasoil Crack Spread is expected to return to fundamental - based pricing, and it is projected to trade sideways at a high level in December due to Europe's long - term structural capacity withdrawal [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report provides a daily data tracking of the aluminum industry chain on December 2, 2025, including key data on alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy. 3. Summary by Directory Alumina - On December 2, the SMM AOD average price was 21,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the premium/discount was -50 yuan/ton [1]. - The domestic ore price was 509 yuan/ton on December 2, with no change compared to the previous day; the price of imported ore from Guinea was 71 US dollars per dry ton, also unchanged [1]. - The spot price index was 2,826 yuan/ton on December 2, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The futures inventory was 253,612 tons on December 2, with no change compared to the previous day [1]. - The aluminum import profit and loss was -2,006 yuan/ton on December 2, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Electrolytic Aluminum - On December 2, the Baotai ADC12 price was 20,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous day [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum smelting profit was 5,284 yuan/ton on December 2, a decrease of 246 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The futures inventory was 64,198 tons on December 2, a decrease of 29 tons compared to the previous day [1]. - The import profit and loss was -375 yuan/ton on December 2, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The scrap price difference between raw aluminum and profile aluminum on December 2 was 1,669 yuan/ton and 2,421 yuan/ton respectively, both decreasing by 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The futures inventory was 66,833 tons on December 2, with no change compared to the previous day [1]. - The import profit and loss was 58 yuan/ton on December 2, with no change compared to the previous day [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver and Zinc are rated as "Potential", while Copper is rated as "On hold" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly analysis of cross - border arbitrage opportunities in China's commodity futures market, covering various commodities such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, and agriculturals. It gives last week's performance, this week's recommendations, and key influencing factors for each commodity [4][12][14] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals 1.1 Gold - Last week: The price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets, as well as the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread, fluctuated [14] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the price is rising moderately and there is a lack of short - term drivers for the spread [14] 1.2 Silver - Last week: The domestic - foreign silver price spread continued to decline, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread also fluctuated and declined [25] - This week: Recommendation is to long COMEX and short SHFE as the London silver squeeze risk drives price increase and the external silver price is strongly supported [20][25] 2. Non - Ferrous Metals 2.1 Copper - Last week: LME inventory slightly increased, and the copper import window remained in a loss state [26] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [26] 2.2 Aluminum - Last week: Domestic aluminum price correction drove trading volume recovery, inventory declined but at a slower rate, and the LME inventory continued to decrease. The short - term exchange ratio was range - bound [31] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [31] 2.3 Zinc - Last week: The domestic zinc ingot export window opened, domestic inventory decreased, and LME inventory rose rapidly but remained at a low level [37] - This week: Recommendation is to short LME zinc and long SHFE zinc in a rolling manner [37] 2.4 Lead - Last week: Inventories rose slightly as smelter inventory was low, and canceled warrants for LME surged again during destocking [43] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [43] 2.5 Nickel - Last week: The import window was closed, with numerical fluctuations, and the extreme price difference situation improved significantly [49] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [49] 2.6 Tin - Last week: The domestic - foreign tin price ratio dropped, the spot tin import window was closed, and the import loss was 16,784 yuan/ton with no obvious spread driver [52] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for cross - market arbitrage [52] 3. Ferrous Metals 3.1 Iron Ore - Last week: The iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers [56] - This week: Suggestion is to hold [56] 4. Energy 4.1 Crude Oil - Last week: The SC - Brent spread edged higher [63] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the Middle - East crude oil spot is stable, freight is highly volatile, and Russian oil supply is uncertain [62] 5. Agriculturals 5.1 Soybean - Last week: Import crushing margins were at the bottom and oscillating, and Sino - US trade relations improved [68] - This week: Recommendation is to long the external market and short the domestic market [68] 5.2 Sugar - Last week: Import crushing margins increased, and the external market is expected to be stronger than the domestic market in the medium - to - long term [72] - This week: Suggestion is to hold [72] 5.3 Natural Rubber - Last week: There was little change, and the spread was in the non - arbitrage range. Supply is expected to increase, but demand is weak [75] - This week: Suggestion is to hold [75] 6. Overseas Arbitrage 6.1 COMEX - LME Copper - Last week: The market absorbed the Fed's hawkish stance in December. With the upcoming Fed chair pick and stronger gold/silver prices, the COMEX - LME copper spread may rise. The expected US copper tariff limits the spread's downside [81] - This week: Suggestion is to hold for COMEX - LME copper arbitrage [81] 6.2 Brent - Dubai EFS - Last week: Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS rebounded [87] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the Middle - East crude oil spot discount is oscillating and freight is highly volatile [86] 6.3 WTI - Brent - Last week: The WTI - Brent spread fluctuated [93] - This week: Suggestion is to hold as the US refinery operating rate is stabilizing and rising, refined oil inventory is low, and shale oil production is expected to be stable [92] 6.4 Natural Gas (TFU - HH) - Last week: The price gap continued to decline. Cold wave and export growth expectations pushed up US gas prices, while LNG supply increase pressured European gas prices [96] - This week: Suggestion is to hold. Be cautious about shorting as the spread is approaching the reasonable long - term contract spread [96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to experience weak and volatile trends, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics presenting a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - In December, the rebound space of the industry is expected to be limited under the weak fundamental outlook, and special attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - **Geopolitical Factors**: The situation in the Caribbean region remains tense. After the reduction of Russian oil output, the marginal positive impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has diminished. The OPEC+ production policy is set until the first quarter of next year, with limited short - term disturbances. The global crude oil inventory has been rising since the fourth quarter, and the situation of supply surplus is difficult to change [7]. - **Chemical Industry**: The chemical industry as a whole continues to fluctuate and consolidate. Most liquid chemicals have accumulated inventory this week. The reduction of disproportionation load will help reduce the supply of pure benzene [3]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure persists. The weak fundamental situation in December limits the rebound space, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [4][7]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt profits continue to be compressed. The supply and demand are both weak, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is high [4][8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of high - sulfur fuel oil shows a weak and volatile trend. The three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak, and the demand is relatively weak [4][8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil shows a weak and volatile trend. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy and high - sulfur fuel, but its current valuation is low and it follows the movement of crude oil [4][10]. - **Methanol**: The unloading at coastal areas fails to meet expectations, and the supply - demand situation in the inland provides phased support, so the upward trend of methanol continues [4]. - **Urea**: The progress of off - season storage slows down, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The rebound height is limited under the pressure of supply and demand, and the price fluctuates widely [4]. - **PX**: The market anticipates a shortage of raw materials in the second quarter in advance, and short - term benefits remain strong [4]. - **PTA**: Supported by strong upstream costs and an improved supply - demand pattern, the price rises synchronously [4]. - **Short Fibers**: Downstream customers make moderate replenishments in stages, but the willingness to continuously chase price increases is not strong [4]. - **Bottle Chips**: The support from the cost side strengthens, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants [4]. - **Propylene**: Driven by PG, PL fluctuates and rebounds [4]. - **PP**: Driven by propane but with limited fundamental support, attention should be paid to changes in maintenance [4]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and the price fluctuates [4]. - **Styrene**: The inventory reduction continues in December, and market sentiment improves [4]. - **PVC**: There is a game between long and short positions, and PVC shows a weak rebound [4]. - **Caustic Soda**: The marginal cost decreases, and caustic soda fluctuates weakly [4]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, changes in basis, and the number of warehouse receipts for different varieties including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The report presents the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads for different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the supply - demand tightness persists. It continues to lead the trend of new energy metals. In the short - term, after the negative impact on investor sentiment, the price stops falling and rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus is expected to narrow, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the silicon price fluctuates in a range. The supply is affected by the dry season in the southwest and potential environmental protection and power - limit factors in the north, while the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - The policy expectation for polysilicon is rising again, and the price fluctuates at a high level. The supply is shrinking due to the dry season, and the "anti - involution" policy is expected to have an impact. The demand is weakening in November [7][9]. - The supply - demand gap of lithium carbonate is slightly improved, and the lithium price fluctuates at a high level. The supply is expected to remain strong, the demand is better than in previous years, and the inventory is being depleted. The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: The spot price is stable, the inventory is under pressure to accumulate, the production in November decreased, the export in October decreased, the photovoltaic new - installed capacity in October increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the organic silicon industry may enter a production - cut and price - support stage [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in December, and the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening. The inventory is high, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipt registration [6]. - **Outlook**: If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand will further weaken, and the inventory - accumulation pressure may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate [6][7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The transaction price of N - type re - feeding materials is stable, the warehouse receipt quantity has increased slightly, the export and import volumes have decreased, the photovoltaic new - installed capacity from January to October increased year - on - year, and the industry association is promoting "anti - involution" work [7]. - **Main Logic**: The policy expectation is rising, the warehouse receipt quantity is low, providing support for near - month contracts. The supply is shrinking in the dry season, and the demand is weakening in November. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [7][9]. - **Outlook**: The "anti - involution" policy can boost the price, but the actual demand is weak, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On December 1st, the closing price of the main contract increased, the total position increased, the spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: The supply is expected to remain strong, the demand is better than in previous years, and the inventory is being depleted. The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, and the resumption of production of Jiaxiawo is a key factor [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, but the sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11]. 3.2 Market Monitoring The report only lists the sub - items of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the market monitoring section but does not provide specific content. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of CITIC Futures show different degrees of increase. The comprehensive index includes the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.76%, 1.09%, 0.74%, and 1.26% respectively. The new energy commodity index has a daily increase of 0.91%, a 5 - day increase of 1.94%, a 1 - month increase of 7.96%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.19% [53][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm, and the steel plate is strong. Although there are disturbances in the steel supply, the actual impact on production is limited. Iron ore has strong support, and coking coal and coke have rebounded from low levels [1]. - In the off - season, steel continues to destock, with limited fundamental contradictions. There may be positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the plate may have phased upward opportunities due to improved macro - sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron water production is expected to decline, and the rigid demand support for iron ore is weakening. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly, port inventories are accumulating, and steel mills' import ore inventories are decreasing. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][8]. - Scrap steel arrivals are stable, and after the price drop, its cost - effectiveness has increased. The demand from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke supply has increased slightly, and steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. There is an expectation of winter storage replenishment, and the futures price is expected to follow coking coal to oscillate [2][10]. - The fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated, but the current valuation of the futures is too low. There is a strong expectation of winter storage replenishment, and the spot price has bottom support. Near - month contracts may oscillate, while far - month contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [2][11]. 3.3 Alloys - The cost of ferromanganese silicon remains relatively high, but the market supply and demand are loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level [3][15]. - The cost of ferrosilicon supports the price bottom, but the market supply and demand are weak, and the price increase is weak. The futures price of the main contract is expected to run at a low level [3][16]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass supply may be disturbed, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, otherwise, the price will rise [6][12]. - The price of soda ash is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [6][14]. 3.5 Steel - The macro - environment is warm, and the steel plate is strong. Although the steel mill profitability is decreasing, the willingness to reduce production is limited. The demand is under pressure to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing, but the inventory level is still high year - on - year [7]. 3.6 Commodity Index - On December 1, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed an increase. The special indices such as the Commodity 20 Index and the Industrial Products Index also rose. The steel industry chain index had a daily increase of 1.24%, a 5 - day increase of 0.62%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.31%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.33% [99][100]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different price trends and influencing factors. Overall, most varieties are expected to be in a state of shock, with some having upward or downward trends [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Yesterday, the market showed shock and differentiation. Pay attention to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical buying, US soybeans and soybean oil rose last Friday. Yesterday, domestic oils and fats showed shock and differentiation, with rapeseed oil showing a weak shock. From a macro - environmental perspective, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December, and there may be progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. The crude oil market faces geopolitical uncertainties, and OPEC+ agreed to maintain the production forecast in 2026. Last Friday, the US dollar weakened and crude oil fell slightly. From an industrial perspective, the planting of South American soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the planting of Brazilian soybeans is in the later stage. The planting of Argentine soybeans is expected to accelerate. As of the week of November 26, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans was 36%, with a five - year average of 37.24%. Continue to pay attention to China's procurement of US soybeans and changes in US biodiesel policies. Recently, the domestic soybean inventory is relatively high, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is relatively large, so the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. For palm oil, the expected increase in the monthly output of Malaysian palm oil in November has narrowed. The output of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.24% month - on - month according to MPOA and decreased by 0.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The exports of Malaysian palm oil in November decreased by 19.7% and 15.9% according to ITS and AmSpec respectively. Since this year, the consumption of palm oil by Indonesian biodiesel has increased year - on - year, and the inventory of Indonesian palm oil has remained low. The import of Indian vegetable oil may decline seasonally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply is currently tight, and the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. However, with the large - scale listing of Russian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage. Also, pay attention to changes in China - Canada trade relations and the import of Canadian rapeseed [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to be in a strong shock, palm oil in a strong shock, and rapeseed oil in a shock. Recently, the sentiment in the oils and fats market has stabilized, the cost of domestic soybean oil continues to provide support, the domestic rapeseed supply is tight, and rapeseed oil continues to de - stock. Continue to pay attention to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil in November [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is firm, the futures market shows a shock, and the basis of soybean meal has increased slightly [6]. - **Logic**: On December 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes. The average profit of China's imported soybean crushing was - 49.58 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 12.64 yuan/ton or - 20.32%. Internationally, the premium and discount spread between North and South American soybeans has narrowed, and attention should be paid to China's procurement. South American soybeans are affected by La Nina. The global agricultural meteorological report shows that in the next two weeks, there will be significant climate differentiation in the main agricultural areas of South America: continuous heavy rain in the central and northern parts of Brazil, increasing the risk of local floods, while the drought in Argentina and southern Brazil is deteriorating, increasing the growth pressure on new - season corn and soybeans. Overall, it is expected that US soybeans will operate in the range of [1100 - 1170]. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean inventory is high, the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal is slow, and the logic of futures - spot convergence dominates the narrow - range fluctuation of the January contract. In the medium term, China has returned to the US soybean market, and the procurement progress in January has exceeded 45%. The import of Australian seeds is expected to be strong. The inventory of soybean meal of downstream feed and breeding enterprises has increased year - on - year. Pay attention to the performance of the consumption peak season in December. It is expected that the basis of soybean meal will increase slightly, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract may widen. In the long term, whether the weather in South America is normal determines the price trend and increase or decrease of soybean meal [6][7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to be in a shock. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased, China's procurement has returned to the US soybean market, and attention should be paid to the hype of La Nina for South American soybeans. It is expected that US soybeans will be in a high - level shock. The import crushing profit has been repaired, soybean procurement has accelerated, the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal by oil mills is slow, downstream buyers have placed orders at low prices in the futures market, and spot transactions have increased, leading to an increase in the basis. It is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be in a range - bound shock. Pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the change of the main contract [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The price in the Northeast continues to strengthen, and pressure is beginning to appear in North China [8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices have shown mixed trends. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast has decreased significantly, and they have generally raised prices to increase the volume. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in North China is uneven, and enterprises adjust prices flexibly according to actual conditions. The arrival volume at ports has increased, and prices are temporarily stable under the support of demand. Recently, the futures and spot prices of corn have been strong. The core indicator supporting the strong price is the low - level operation of the inventory at northern ports, and this trend will temporarily continue. Due to the difference in grain quality structure and regional price spread, the outflow of corn from the Northeast is much higher than that of the same period last year, which is the core reason why the port inventory has not been accumulated. First, the quality of corn in North China is poor and the toxin content is high, so local corn cannot flow into the feed market in large quantities, resulting in feed enterprises in various places purchasing orders from the Northeast. Second, since the price of corn in the Northwest has been rising since the start of the purchase, the cost of traders is relatively high, and the price of corn in the Northwest is continuously inverted with the sales area, so it cannot supply the gap in the sales area in the short term. Therefore, the national demand depends on Northeast corn (with good quality and high bulk density) in the short term, resulting in a much higher outflow of Northeast corn than in previous years. In addition, many traders pre - sold corn (signed sales contracts but did not purchase) because the market was generally bearish before. As the contracts are approaching the expiration date, traders are rushing to purchase and ship the grain to fulfill the contracts; there are even cases of repeated purchases due to the tight transportation capacity, and the short - term concentrated demand has pushed up the price at northern ports. In North China, as the mainstream price in Shandong reaches 2300 yuan/ton, the market's reluctance to sell has been significantly alleviated, and the supply of wet corn has gradually increased, which will limit the further increase in prices. In the short term, the bullish driving force continues, and the price will maintain a strong shock. In the future, it is still necessary to wait for the release of upstream inventory and the alleviation of the downstream tense situation. Before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to remain in a high - level shock. Currently, it is a game between the realization of selling pressure and the inventory building of traders. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to changes in port inventory and wheat prices [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be in a shock. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the shock trend of the spot price will continue [9]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The pressure of slaughter remains, and the price is in a low - level shock [10]. - **Logic**: **Supply**: In the short term, the number of second - fattened pigs in late November decreased by 18% month - on - month, and large pigs were put on the market. In the medium term, the production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 was still fluctuating at a high level, and the number of newly - born piglets from January to October continued to increase month - on - month. According to the breeding cycle, it is expected that the supply of commercial pigs will continue to be in excess until the first quarter of 2026. In the long term, the production capacity of sows began to decline in the third quarter of 2025. According to the samples of the Ministry of Agriculture, the number of sows decreased month - on - month from July to October, and the national sow inventory in October decreased to 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Currently, the self - breeding and self - raising of pigs continue to be in a loss state. Driven by "policy + loss", the reduction of sow production is expected to continue, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. **Demand**: There is sporadic bacon - curing in the South, and the demand drive is still insufficient. **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight has increased for three consecutive weeks. **Rhythm**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, the inventory of large pigs is large, the slaughter weight of large - scale farms has increased, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has decreased month - on - month but is still at a high level, the supply and demand are loose, and the pig price is weak. In the medium term, according to the production capacity realization cycle of sows and piglets, the supply of commercial pigs will remain at a high level before the first quarter of 2026, and the cycle is still in a downward trend. In the long term, the production capacity of sows in the country began to show signs of decline in the third quarter of 2025. Currently, driven by "anti - involution + loss", the reduction of sow production is expected to continue, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be in a weak shock. In the near - term, in the fourth quarter, pigs are still in the period of high - level production capacity realization, and the pressure of large - pig slaughter at the end of the year will continue to weaken the pig price. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture guides enterprises to reduce production, and the breeding profit continues to be in a loss state, which is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The price of far - month contracts is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It fell against the trend of industrial products, and the price is in a range - bound shock [12]. - **Logic**: Affected by the weakening of floods in Thailand, the pressure of increased output, the accumulation of inventory at domestic ports, and the weak trend of Japanese rubber, the price of natural rubber fell against the trend of industrial products yesterday. Recently, natural rubber has maintained a narrow - range shock pattern. Last week, the news of floods in the southern part of Thailand fermented, but the futures market did not respond accordingly. Instead, it oscillated downward under the influence of bearish news such as inventory accumulation, the addition of new delivery substitutes for NR, and the postponement of the EUDR confirmation. However, it was also supported by the downstream procurement enthusiasm and its relatively low valuation, and the decline was very limited. In the second half of the week, with the expectation of the flood receding in the production area and the gradual resumption of raw material procurement by processing plants, the futures market rebounded rapidly, but the upward pressure was still obvious. In the recent period, the futures market has basically maintained such a tug - of - war trend. Although the support below is strong and the long - term bullish consensus is high, it is also restricted by the current seasonal increase in output and the inventory - accumulation period. In the future, it is expected that there will be no strong unilateral driving force for the time being. Attention can be paid to the quantitative situation of domestic delivery products in mid - to - late December [12][14]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables are limited. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to maintain a wide - range shock with high elasticity, and it is still difficult to have a trend - like market unilaterally [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The driving force is not strong, and it maintains a follow - up shock [15]. - **Logic**: BR's price fell yesterday due to the weakening of natural rubber and its weak supply - demand situation. In the past two weeks, it has basically shown a shock - consolidation trend after rebounding from the listing low, but there is a lack of new marginal variables. It is waiting for new driving forces under the support of the natural rubber futures market and the good trading volume of butadiene. Although the short - term raw material pressure, especially the supply pressure shown by the butadiene port inventory, is relatively large, most of it has been reflected in the previous futures market's decline due to the expected increase in imports. So, for the time being, even if the raw material price has not improved and this price gives production enterprises a good processing profit, the futures market has not further traded this bearish situation. In the raw material market, the price of butadiene first fell and then rose last week, showing a slight shock overall. After the price was slightly pushed up in the early stage, there was a co - existence of the mentality of upstream enterprises to sell at high prices and downstream enterprises to buy at low prices, resulting in poor high - price transactions, and the market was under pressure to decline at the beginning of the week. However, the external market rose slightly during the week, and some domestic suppliers controlled the quantity and supported the price, driving the butadiene market to stop falling and oscillate in the middle of the week. Although there has been a continuous follow - up of rigid - demand buyers, the inventory has been at a high level recently, and the cautious supply - side expectation has also led to poor transactions of some slightly high - priced offers, and the market has maintained a small - range shock [15]. - **Outlook**: There is no upward driving force for the time being, and it is supported by natural rubber below. The futures market is expected to maintain a range - bound shock [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The hedging pressure restricts the short - term upward height [15]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, new cotton is continuously being listed, and the inspection progress is faster than in previous years. The output of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be between 7.3 - 7.5 million tons, an increase of 0.6 - 0.8 million tons year - on - year, and the supply is continuously increasing. In terms of demand, affected by seasonal factors, the number of new orders has slightly decreased month - on - month recently, but the overall level is still good, and there is no obvious bearish or negative feedback on the demand side. In terms of inventory, according to BCO data, currently in the peak listing period, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously increasing, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing. However, the inventory as of mid - November has decreased year - on - year, indicating that the apparent demand for cotton is good, which supports the price. Recently, the 01 contract has continued to rebound, and the support below is obvious. However, as the price rises, the hedging pressure gradually increases, and the upward space is limited. Overall, the short - term rebound space of the 01 contract is limited; in the long term, the cotton price may maintain a shock - strong pattern, and the far - month contracts have long - position allocation value [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is in a range - bound shock; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to be in a shock - strong pattern. It is advisable to buy on dips [16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is in a low - level shock [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - and medium - term, the domestic and international sugar prices are expected to be in a weak shock. The core logic is that the global sugar market will have a loose supply in the 25/26 crushing season. Major producing countries such as Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. The prospect of supply surplus makes the long - term price of domestic and international sugar have a downward driving force, so the general direction of the sugar price is downward. In addition, StoneX expects that Brazil may further increase production in the 26/27 crushing season, making the long - term price outlook rather pessimistic. Currently, the Northern Hemisphere has entered the new - season sugar production. According to Pan - Sugar Technology Information, as of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, and 113 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, India, have started production, with a cumulative cane crushing of 1.03582 million tons. As the supply

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 1st, equity index futures and CGB futures rallied; most commodities advanced, with metals leading the gains while agricultural products remained weak [2][9][12]. - Gold re - entered the uptrend, and silver's short squeeze boosted upside, unlikely to ease soon. Poly - Silicon prices trended higher, but its fundamentals remained weak [16][17][24]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 1st, equity index futures and CGB futures rallied; most commodities advanced, with metals leading the gains while agricultural products remained weak. China's financial futures: IH rose by 0.76%, IM rose by 1.08%, TL fell by 0.08%. In commodity futures, silver, platinum, and polysilicon topped the gainers, while egg futures, glass futures, and alumina led the decliners [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold & Silver - On December 1st, Gold rose 1.3% to 963.28 yuan/g, Silver rose 5.9% to 13278 yuan/kg. Gold re - entered the uptrend as the market became desensitized to Fed's possible actions in December, and the reshuffle of the Fed chair may open long - term rate cut expectations. Silver's short squeeze boosted upside, and it's unlikely to ease soon due to tight overseas spot supply and year - end delivery peak [15][16][17]. 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On December 1st, Poly - Silicon rose 3.3% to 57705 yuan/ton. Recent policy expectations picked up, but its fundamentals remained weak. Southwest China entered the dry season, reducing supply. Demand was also weak, and inventory remained high. Overall, 11 - 12 saw a decline in both supply and demand, with supply dropping more sharply, expecting a slight surplus or tight balance by year - end [23][24][25]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - French President Emmanuel Macron will pay a state visit to China from December 3rd to 5th. Chinese citizens can enter Russia visa - free for tourism and business purposes until September 14, 2026, with a maximum stay of 30 days [27]. 2.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China convened the Meeting of the Coordination Mechanism for Cracking Down on Virtual Currency Trading and Speculation on November 28, 2025. Starting January 1, 2026, Shanghai Futures Exchange decided that futures company members, overseas special brokerage participants and overseas intermediaries shall not be subject to position limits. As of the end of October, the total assets under management of public funds had approached 37 trillion yuan, an increase of over 4 trillion yuan year - to - date [28].

期货有限公司 s Company I imited 政策预期升温与仓单集中注销,多晶硅波动加剧 12月1日，多晶硅明货价格快速回升，主力合约最高涨超-5%触及 50200元/吨，突破前期高点并再创阶段新高。近期多最猛价格走强主要受两方面因素驱动：一是随着 12月到宋，年末市场 对党给侧改革可能释放明确政策信号的预期升温；二是 11 月仓单集中注销后、交割仓单变动受到市场关注，广期所多品拒台单已快速降至 1330 手，市场担忧短期仓单注册进度偏慢，从而带动 近月合约出现显著拉涨。 基本面情况 从基本面来看，在光伏终端装机承压的背景下，多晶硅酸体延续弱势，供需呈现"双弱"格局。供给端，11月西南枯水期，水电成本上升导致当地多晶硅产能持续成产。SMM数据显示，11月多 晶高产量11.5万吨，环比-14.5％，同比·2.7％；1-11月多磊硅累计生产119万吨，同比-28.1％。随着枯水锅减产继续链接，12月多晶硅热应预计处于10-11万吨区间，阶段性供给压力有所缓和。 需求端受到新能源电价上网市场化双草的影响，光伏装机收益承压，虽加年末下游戏产进入淡季，需求进一步减弱。电池片和组织排产自10月起持续回落，硅片生产当 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of the year, the market's policy expectations for supply - side reform are rising, and the change in the number of delivery warrants has attracted high attention, leading to increased volatility in polysilicon prices. The polysilicon price at the end of the year still shows a wide - range oscillation pattern [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 1st, the spot price of polysilicon rebounded rapidly, with the main contract rising by over - 5% at the maximum, reaching 50,200 yuan/ton, breaking through the previous high and reaching a new stage high. The recent strength of polysilicon prices is mainly driven by two factors: the rising expectation of clear policy signals from supply - side reform at the end of the year, and after the concentrated cancellation of warrants in November, the change in delivery warrants has attracted market attention. The number of warrants on the GZEX polysilicon platform has rapidly dropped to 1,330 lots, and the market is worried that the short - term warrant registration progress is slow, which drives the significant increase of near - month contracts [2] Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: In the context of the pressure on photovoltaic terminal installation, the overall situation of polysilicon remains weak, with a "double - weak" supply - demand pattern. In November, due to the dry season in the southwest region, the increase in hydropower costs led to continuous production cuts of local polysilicon capacity. SMM data shows that the polysilicon output in November was 115,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%. From January to November, the cumulative production of polysilicon was 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.1%. With the continuation of production cuts in the dry season, the polysilicon supply in December is expected to be in the range of 100,000 - 110,000 tons, and the phased supply pressure has been alleviated [3] - **Demand**: Affected by the market - oriented reform of new - energy electricity price grid - connection, the profitability of photovoltaic installation is under pressure. Coupled with the off - season of downstream production at the end of the year, the demand has further weakened. The production schedules of battery chips and modules have been continuously declining since October, and the production of silicon wafers has also decreased significantly. SMM data shows that the silicon wafer output in November was 8.4 GW, a month - on - month increase of 10.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.4%. From January to November, the cumulative production of silicon wafers was 608.2 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. The weakness of terminal installation has gradually spread to the mid - stream, and the prices of battery chips and silicon wafers have slightly fluctuated recently. There may be a further decline in short - term demand [3] - **Inventory**: The polysilicon industry inventory remains at a high level. However, due to the recent concentrated cancellation of warrants, along with higher requirements for delivery products, supply contraction in the dry season, and industry sales control, the market is somewhat worried about the speed of warrant re - registration. The progress of warrant registration needs to be followed up [3] Summary and Strategy - Polysilicon manufacturers can conduct hedging operations on rallies; institutional investors can consider selling out - of - the - money put options and continue to hold them. In addition, pay attention to the subsequent progress of warrant registration. After the warrants return, consider gradually deploying the near - far month reverse spread strategy [4]