1. Report Summary - The report provides an overview of China's futures market on October 23, 2025, including price movements of equity indices, CGB futures, and commodities. It also offers comments on lithium carbonate, lead, and RBD palm olein, and covers recent China news [2][4]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Overall Market - On October 23, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Most commodities rose, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [2][4][11]. 2.2 Commodity Futures - Top three gainers: coking coal (up 5.1% with 14.4% MoM open interest increase), coke (up 4.2% with 3.3% MoM open interest increase), and lithium carbonate (up 4.2% with 18.7% MoM open interest increase) [12]. - Top three decliners: rapeseed (down 1.2% with 12.1% MoM open interest decrease), RBD palm olein (down 1.0% with 3.3% MoM open interest increase), and rapeseed oil (down 0.8% with 1.0% MoM open interest decrease) [13]. 2.3 Financial Futures - Equity indices rose, with IH increasing by 0.6%. CGB futures fell, with TL decreasing by 0.3% [14]. 3. Daily Raise and Drop Analysis 3.1 Lithium Carbonate - On October 23, it increased by 4.2% to 79940 yuan/ton. Short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, while long - term oversupply expectations suppress prices. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply is increasing slightly, demand is strong, social inventories are being destocked, and warehouse receipts have decreased [19][20][22]. 3.2 Lead - On October 23, it increased by 2.7% to 17615 yuan/ton. Supply growth is slightly lower than expected due to factors like environmental controls and smelter maintenance. Demand still has resilience, but exports are under pressure. Social inventories are declining, and spot supply is tight. Prices are expected to be volatile with an upward trend in the short term [26][29][32]. 3.3 RBD Palm Olein - On October 23, it decreased by 1.0% to 9132 yuan/ton. Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory, and India's vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The macro - environment includes the US government shutdown, China - US trade negotiations, Fed rate - cut expectations, and potential loose fiscal policy in Japan [37][38][40]. 4. China News 4.1 Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee - Held from October 20 - 23, 2025, in Beijing. The session proposed main goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan, including promoting high - level self - reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and boosting consumption and investment [44][45][47]. 4.2 China - US Economic and Trade Consultations - From October 24 - 27, 2025, in Malaysia. Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to consult on important issues in China - US economic and trade relations [46][47]. 4.3 EU Sanctions on Chinese Companies - On October 23, the Foreign Ministry expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition to EU sanctions on 12 Chinese companies, emphasizing China's neutral stance on the Ukraine crisis and commitment to safeguarding its rights [46][47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The market shows signs of emotional repair. High - dividend sectors like coal, petrochemicals, and utilities lead the rise. The "technology + anti - involution" is expected to be the mid - term main line. In the short term, use a dumbbell structure for operation. For options, continue the covered call strategy, and for bonds, pay attention to policy signal releases [1][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday's market showed a V - shaped trend with a significant afternoon rebound. The Wind All - A Index rose slightly by 0.14%. High - dividend sectors led the gains. Although the style was value - oriented, there were signs of emotional repair. The futures positions increased significantly, and the decline of hot topics like semiconductors narrowed in the afternoon. After the Fourth Plenary Session, "technology + anti - involution" is the mid - term main line. Use a dumbbell structure for operation. Suggest holding Red Chip ETF + IM [1][7] Stock Index Options - On Thursday, the trading volume of each option variety recovered compared to Wednesday but remained below 10 billion. The low trading volume on Wednesday implied a recent market trading idea of being inclined to fluctuate. The increase in trading volume on Thursday was due to the morning market decline and the increased hedging demand. The implied volatility of options increased by 0.84%. Currently, continue the covered call strategy [2][7] Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The long - position holders may have strong motivation to leave the market, with the T main contract's position decreasing by 7491 lots. The central bank ended the continuous net injection and had a net withdrawal of 2.35 billion yuan, but the capital was still relatively loose. The bond market adjustment was affected by policies and the stock - bond seesaw. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the Fourth Plenary Session's communiqué was released. In the short term, be cautious and pay attention to policy signals. In the medium term, the expectation of loose money may support the bond market [2][7][9] Economic Calendar - It shows the economic data of China and the US from October 20th, 2025, including China's LPR, urban fixed - asset investment, industrial added - value, retail sales, GDP, and the US's non - farm employment population change [10] Important Information and News Tracking - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025, and relevant reports and suggestions were passed. A Chinese shipbuilding company won a large foreign order for anti - rolling fins. The National People's Congress will continue to review the draft amendment to the Cybersecurity Law. Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th [11][12] Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only lists the sub - items of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data is provided [13][17][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for most energy and chemical products, the mid - term outlook is "oscillating", which implies a neutral investment stance for the industry in the short - to - medium term. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US sanctions on two major Russian oil producers have led to an increase in energy prices, which in turn boosts the chemical products. The potential reduction in Russian oil supply due to sanctions is difficult to quantify, but it may support oil prices in the short term. The chemical industry, although with high inventory levels, is expected to shift from a downward trend to an oscillating pattern due to autumn maintenance and reduced supply [2][3]. - The supply side of crude oil has entered a stage where the expected reduction in Russian oil is difficult to disprove, and short - term price support is relatively stable. Geopolitical factors are delaying the downward trend of oil prices, and the substitution effect of Middle Eastern crude oil may strengthen the SC - Brent spread [7]. - Most chemical products, including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, etc., are expected to oscillate in the short term, affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **原油** - **观点**：Geopolitical risks increase, and Russian oil exports face new challenges. The market is affected by news such as Trump's statement on Venezuela, Kuwait's oil minister's remarks, the US plan for offshore oil drilling, and the EU's new sanctions on Russia. The short - term price support is relatively stable, and the market is expected to oscillate [6][7]. - **Main Logic**：The supply side has entered a stage where the expected reduction in Russian oil is difficult to disprove. Although Russia's oil exports have been relatively stable under previous sanctions, the new sanctions may have a greater impact. The potential reduction in supply is difficult to quantify, and the impact on the global supply - demand balance is uncertain. Geopolitical factors are delaying the downward trend of oil prices [7]. - **沥青** - **观点**：Geopolitical premium resurfaces, and asphalt prices rise significantly. - **Main Logic**：The increase in oil prices driven by factors such as sanctions and the expectation of US oil reserve purchases has led to a resurgence of the expectation of asphalt raw material supply disruption. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the supply tension has been relieved. The high valuation of asphalt is starting to decline [8]. - **高硫燃油** - **观点**：Geopolitical premium resurfaces, and fuel oil futures prices rise. - **Main Logic**：The increase in oil prices has driven the rebound of high - sulfur fuel oil. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to drive up fuel oil prices. However, the demand for fuel oil is still weak [9]. - **低硫燃油** - **观点**：Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**：Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may decline, but the current valuation is low [10]. - **PX** - **观点**：Oil prices rebound from a low level, and the strengthening of downstream demand supports the expansion of processing fees. - **Main Logic**：The increase in international oil prices and the sanctions on Russian oil companies have affected the supply expectation of crude oil. Naphtha prices have followed the rise of oil prices, providing cost support for PX. The downstream demand for PX has strengthened, and the profit of PX has been significantly repaired. In the short term, PX prices are expected to rebound from an oversold level [11][12]. - **PTA** - **观点**：The increase is less than the cost, and the profit margin is compressed to the lowest level of the year. - **Main Logic**：The upstream cost has strengthened, supporting the upward movement of PTA prices. However, due to the pressure on PTA's supply - demand relationship, the increase is less than that of the upstream, and the processing fee has been compressed. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the price will continue to follow the upstream cost [12][13]. - **纯苯** - **观点**：Geopolitical factors stimulate the rebound of crude oil, and pure benzene oscillates. - **Main Logic**：The low cracking profit, the restart of the Dangote refinery, and the substitution of LPG for naphtha have led to a weak naphtha price. The market is pessimistic about the future of pure benzene, and the supply is still abundant, resulting in weak prices [14][15]. - **苯乙烯** - **观点**：Crude oil rebounds, and styrene oscillates upward during the day. - **Main Logic**：The market is still pessimistic about the future of pure benzene, the main raw material of styrene. Although the supply - demand relationship of styrene has slightly improved due to increased maintenance, the high port inventory is still a major pressure. The price has rebounded due to short - covering and contract - rolling, but the fundamental improvement is limited [15][17]. - **MEG** - **观点**：Cost support drives price rebound, and the moderate improvement in polyester downstream boosts sentiment. - **Main Logic**：The rebound of coal and oil prices provides cost support. The coal - based production load is high, while the integrated oil - based production load has decreased slightly. The downstream demand has some support, and the port inventory has not continued to accumulate. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship is still under pressure [18][19]. - **短纤** - **观点**：Factories focus on sales, and the discount is reduced as the cost strengthens. - **Main Logic**：The increase in upstream prices supports the rise of polyester staple fiber prices. The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, and the reduction in discounts has led to a decline in sales. The price will follow the raw material price, and some trading strategies such as long PF short TA or PF12 - 01 positive spread can be considered [19][21]. - **瓶片** - **观点**：Follow the rise of polyester raw materials. - **Main Logic**：The rebound of upstream polyester raw material prices supports the price of polyester bottle chips. The fundamental situation is not significant, and the price will follow the cost. The processing fee has strong support at a low level, and attention can be paid to the PR12 - 01 positive spread [21][22]. - **甲醇** - **观点**：Olefins rebound, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. - **Main Logic**：The methanol futures price rebounded slightly on October 23. The price in Inner Mongolia has increased slightly, and the upstream inventory is low. The port inventory is still at a high level, but considering the potential disturbance from Iran in winter, methanol still has long - position value. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [26]. - **尿素** - **观点**：Cost support and market sentiment lead to a short - term recovery, but the price is still under pressure. - **Main Logic**：On October 23, the supply - demand relationship of urea was still weak, but the increase in coal prices and positive market sentiment drove the futures price up. However, the supply - demand contradiction needs to be resolved for a real reversal, and the price is expected to oscillate narrowly [27]. - **LLDPE** - **观点**：Oil prices rebound, and the support from maintenance is limited. LLDPE is expected to trade within a range. - **Main Logic**：The LLDPE futures price rebounded slightly on October 23. The rebound of oil prices and the potential reduction in Russian oil supply due to sanctions may relieve the current oversupply situation. However, the fundamental support of LLDPE itself is limited, and the upper price space is restricted by the inventory reduction intention of the upstream and mid - stream [29]. - **PP** - **观点**：Oil prices rebound, and maintenance provides slight support. PP is expected to trade within a range. - **Main Logic**：The PP futures price rebounded slightly on October 23. The rebound of oil prices and the potential reduction in Russian oil supply are positive factors. However, the supply is still high, and the demand support is limited. The high inventory is suppressing the price. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [30][31]. - **PL** - **观点**：The price difference with PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**：On October 23, PL prices oscillated. Enterprises' price concessions were limited, and the market trading atmosphere improved due to increased downstream demand. The PP - PL price difference oscillated around 500, and the volatility of PL has increased [31]. - **PVC** - **观点**：Low valuation and weak expectation, PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**：Macroscopically, the Sino - US tariff issue is a concern. Microscopically, the PVC fundamental situation is under pressure, with stable cost. The production is expected to increase after the autumn maintenance, and the downstream demand is only strong at low prices. The export situation has improved. The price is expected to rebound and then be sold short [33]. - **烧碱** - **观点**：The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**：Macroscopically, the Sino - US tariff issue is a concern. Microscopically, the long - term demand and production of烧碱 may increase. The spot price may oscillate narrowly, affected by factors such as the alumina industry's situation, procurement from some enterprises, and future production changes. The futures price is expected to enter a wide - range oscillation, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [33]. 3.2品种数据监测 - **能化⽇度指标监测** - **跨期价差**：The report provides the latest values and changes of the inter - period spreads of various energy and chemical products, such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [36]. - **基差和仓单**：The report shows the basis and warehouse receipts of different products, including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [37]. - **跨品种价差**：The report presents the price differences between different products, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [39]. - **化⼯基差及价差监测**：The report mentions the basis and price differences of various chemical products, including methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data is not fully presented in the provided text. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**：The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of commodities are presented, including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index, and energy index. The energy index has a daily increase of 2.40% on October 23, 2025, a 5 - day increase of 4.93%, a 1 - month decrease of 6.23%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.84% [280][281][282].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term bottom of precious metals may be confirmed, and they are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals has not reversed, and the long - term price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [1][3]. - The price of precious metals rebounded slightly on Thursday after the decline gradually slowed down. The U.S. government shutdown continued, overseas was still in a data vacuum period, and the U.S. stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were calm [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - U.S. President Trump will make a statement in Washington at 3 p.m. local time and will visit Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan next week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will accompany Trump to Japan and then attend the APEC meeting in South Korea [2]. - During the federal government shutdown, the U.S. government's national debt scale exceeded $38 trillion on Wednesday for the first time in history. The debt has been growing rapidly in the past decade due to factors like population aging and increased interest payments [2]. - The release of the U.S. initial jobless claims data originally scheduled for 8:30 a.m. on October 23 was postponed due to the government shutdown [2]. Price Logic - In the short - term, the precious metals are expected to enter a shock adjustment phase. In the month, attention should be paid to the Sino - U.S. meeting around the APEC meeting. In the fourth quarter, focus on the Fed's monetary policy, personnel changes, and geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts this year, but the 2026 interest rate cut expectation has not been reflected. Pay attention to the game around the December FOMC meeting [3]. - Personnel changes in the Fed within 1 - 2 quarters are an important variable. After Thanksgiving, the nomination of the new Fed chairman is expected to be confirmed, which may bring greater long - term interest rate imagination [3]. - Pay attention to the potential impact of the right - wing tendency after Koike Sanae is elected as the new Prime Minister of Japan [3]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The contraction of the U.S. dollar credit is the core foundation. In the long - run, the price center of gold and silver is expected to rise [3]. - This week, the price range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between $3,900 and $4,400 per ounce, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between $46 and $55 per ounce [3]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively [43]. - The precious metals index on October 23, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day decline of 5.94%, a 1 - month increase of 13.32%, and a year - to - date increase of 49.27% [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the tight supply - demand situation, lithium carbonate leads the rise of new energy metals. In the long run, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, with a possible rise in the price center. The high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, with continuous warehouse receipt depletion, the silicon price fluctuates. For polysilicon, with a slight reduction in warehouse receipts, it continues to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, with continuous warehouse receipt depletion, the lithium price rises with increased positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously depleted, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. In September, the export volume was 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The latest domestic inventory was 445,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [6]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the supply in the Northwest continues to increase, while the dry season in the Southwest is approaching, with some silicon plants reducing production. On the demand side, the consumption of industrial silicon has rebounded due to the resumption of production of some polysilicon enterprises in October, but is expected to decline slightly in November. The silicone DMC market is stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry is limited. The continuous depletion of industrial silicon warehouse receipts supports the futures price [6]. - **Outlook**: With a relatively loose supply pattern, the silicon price is under pressure. Affected by coal prices, the silicon price will fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are slightly depleted, and polysilicon continues to fluctuate [7]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the export volume of polysilicon was about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September, the export volume was 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. The import volume in September was about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September, the import volume was 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26%. Some bases in the Southwest are expected to stop production in late October - early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons per year [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the production in August - September has recovered to over 130,000 tons, expected to remain high in October and decline in November. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first half of the year was high, but the demand in the second half of the year is expected to weaken. There is still pressure on the current supply - demand of polysilicon, but there are policy expectations, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [7][9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy can boost the polysilicon price, but the current supply - demand is poor, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously depleted, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [9]. - **Information Analysis**: On October 23, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.66% to 79,940 yuan/ton, and the total open interest increased by 72,329 lots to 815,338 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 74,800 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 72,550 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts decreased by 260 lots to 28,759 lots [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. The supply is expected to reach 90,000 tons in October. The apparent demand is strong, and the production schedule in November is still strong. The social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still large. The significant reduction in warehouse receipts should be watched out for. The price has strengthened under the situation of strong supply and demand [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the long - term oversupply expectation suppresses the price. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. 3.2 Market Monitoring - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the black building materials industry. However, for individual varieties, the mid - term outlook for most is "oscillation", including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon [7][8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black building materials industry chain operates stably. Coal mine supply recovery is slower than expected, supporting coking coal and coke prices, but it's difficult to spread the impact to other varieties in the sector. Meanwhile, with continuous macro and policy expectations, short - term prices of sector varieties will remain oscillating, and attention should be paid to rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined from a high level. The sample daily average output of hot metal continues to decline, and the market's expectation of weakening hot metal has increased. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and the pressure is not significant. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply has decreased significantly this week, and demand has also declined. Steel mills' inventories are slightly reduced. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of finished products [10]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The second round of price increase is likely to be implemented. With short - term rigid demand from steel mills and strong raw materials, the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is frequently disrupted, and mid - and downstream procurement is active. The fundamentals are healthy, but the upward driving force of furnace materials is limited under the pressure of steel products. The price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: Cost reduction is limited, steel production is at a high level, and macro - policy expectations support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the medium - and long - term price center may decline [2]. - **Ferrosilicon**: High finished product output and stable cost support the price, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the expected upward price limit is limited [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Upstream inventory continues to accumulate, and the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro fluctuations and oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [3]. 3.5 Steel - The inventory of steel continues to decrease, but it is at a moderately high level. The contradiction in the fundamentals needs time to ease. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the strengthening of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [7]. 3.6 Commodity Index - On October 23, 2025, the comprehensive index, including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, showed an upward trend, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.93% on that day, 2.20% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.29% in the past month, and decreased by 4.73% since the beginning of the year [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The sanctions imposed by the US on Russian oil companies have increased trade barriers, forming a bullish driver for oil prices. However, whether it will lead to a substantial reduction in Russian oil exports is uncertain, and the geopolitical factor only delays the downward trend of oil prices. The short - term price support is expected to be relatively stable, and the SC - Brent spread is expected to widen [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics - On October 22, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil closed up 4.36% and 3.13% respectively, and on October 23, SC crude oil opened up 3.5% in the morning [3] Reasons for the Rise - On October 22, the US Treasury added Rosneft and Lukoil to the sanctions list. In 2024, these two companies' crude oil production accounted for 46% of Russia's total production, which led to increased trade barriers and a bullish driver for oil prices. Trump also canceled the meeting with Putin and said it was time to sanction Russia [4] Fundamental Situation - Geopolitical factors dominate the short - term market. After the sanctions on Gazprom Neft in January 2025 and Rosneft and Lukoil on October 22, the top four Russian oil companies are all on the US sanctions list, accounting for 77% of Russia's 2024 crude oil production. The US Treasury's exemption for normal transactions ends on November 21. Although Russian oil exports have been relatively stable after multiple sanctions, the potential impact of this new round of sanctions is difficult to quantify [5] Market Outlook - Currently, the expectation of a reduction in Russian oil supply is difficult to disprove, and short - term price support is expected to be stable. Even if there is a reduction of hundreds of thousands of barrels in Russian oil exports, it is difficult to reverse the global crude oil supply surplus. The SC - Brent spread is expected to widen due to the enhanced substitution effect of Middle Eastern crude oil [6]

Group 1: Report Core View - The EIA weekly data shows that the refinery utilization rate rebounded, while the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel remained weak [2] - In the week ending October 17, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 961,000 barrels, with an increase in net crude oil imports of 656,000 barrels per day and an increase in crude oil processing volume of 600,000 barrels per day. Domestic focus is on production resilience and refinery utilization rate. The estimated single - week crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate rose from 85.7% to 88.6%, likely due to the restart of refineries after early - month accidents [4] - Gasoline and diesel showed seasonal inventory declines, but their apparent demands were at low levels compared to the same period. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products declined from a high, and single - week data has limited indication [4] Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data (in barrels) - US commercial crude oil inventory change: decreased by 961,000 barrels (previous value increased by 3.524 million barrels) [5] - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: decreased by 770,000 barrels (previous value decreased by 703,000 barrels) [5] - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 819,000 barrels (previous value increased by 760,000 barrels) [5] - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 2.147 million barrels (previous value decreased by 267,000 barrels) [5] - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 1.479 million barrels (previous value decreased by 4.529 million barrels) [5] - US jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 1.485 million barrels (previous value increased by 146,000 barrels) [5] - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 505,000 barrels (previous value increased by 255,000 barrels) [5] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): decreased by 4.172 million barrels (previous value increased by 1.663 million barrels) [5] Production and Demand Data (in barrels per day) - US crude oil production: 13.629 million barrels per day (previous value 13.636 million barrels per day) [5] - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.014 million barrels per day (previous value 19.726 million barrels per day) [5] - US gasoline apparent demand: 8.454 million barrels per day (previous value 8.455 million barrels per day) [5] - US diesel apparent demand: 3.847 million barrels per day (previous value 4.233 million barrels per day) [5] - US crude oil imports: 5.918 million barrels per day (previous value 5.525 million barrels per day) [5] - US crude oil exports: 4.203 million barrels per day (previous value 4.466 million barrels per day) [5] - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 15.73 million barrels per day (previous value 15.13 million barrels per day) [5] - US refinery utilization rate: 88.6% (previous value 85.7%) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The EIA weekly data shows that the refinery utilization rate rebounded, while the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel remained weak. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels in the week ending October 17, 2025, with an increase in net imports and crude oil processing volume. The refinery utilization rate rose from 85.7% to 88.6%, likely due to the restart of refineries after early - month accidents. Gasoline and diesel showed seasonal inventory declines, but their apparent demands were at low levels for the same period, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products decreased from a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Crude Oil - **Inventory**: The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 770,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum inventory increased by 819,000 barrels [4][5]. - **Production**: The estimated single - week U.S. crude oil production decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day [4]. - **Imports and Exports**: Crude oil net imports increased by 656,000 barrels per day. Imports were 5.918 million barrels per day, and exports were 4.203 million barrels per day [4][5]. Petroleum Products - **Inventory**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.147 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 1.479 million barrels, jet fuel inventory decreased by 1.485 million barrels, and fuel oil inventory increased by 505,000 barrels. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) decreased by 4.172 million barrels [5]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for refined oil products was 20.014 million barrels per day, with gasoline at 8.454 million barrels per day and diesel at 3.847 million barrels per day. Both gasoline and diesel apparent demands were at low levels for the same period [4][5]. Refinery - **Processing Volume**: The U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 600,000 barrels per day to 15.73 million barrels per day [4]. - **Utilization Rate**: The refinery utilization rate rebounded from 85.7% to 88.6%, likely due to the restart of refineries after accidental shutdowns at the beginning of the month [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, mainly including "oscillation", "oscillation - slightly stronger", "oscillation - slightly weaker", etc. For example, the mid - term outlooks for most products like crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are "oscillation" [7][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - US situation and the US - India trade agreement have led to a rebound in crude oil prices. The short - term rhythm of crude oil is determined by geopolitics, while the medium - term supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [1]. - With the rebound of crude oil and the increase of chemical coal prices, the chemical industry has also started to rebound. There are minor disruptions in the supply of some chemical products, but the overall pattern has not changed significantly [2]. - For different energy and chemical products, their prices are affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, showing different trends of oscillation, rise, or fall [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased, and Russian oil exports are facing new challenges. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and EIA data shows a small reduction in US crude oil and refined product inventories last week. The downward trend of crude oil prices may be delayed, and the spread between domestic and foreign markets is expected to widen [7]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price has broken through the 3200 pressure level. OPEC+ production increase, Saudi Arabia's export price adjustment, and other factors have led to a rebound in asphalt prices. However, the spot price has continued to decline, and the inventory pressure is still large [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela have intensified, driving up the futures price. Although there are some negative factors, the market is mainly affected by geopolitical upgrades [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. It is facing multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by other fuels, but its current valuation is low [10]. - **PX**: Low prices have attracted market buying interest, and the short - term support has been strengthened under the improvement of supply - demand conditions [11]. - **PTA**: Under supply - demand pressure, the spot processing fee and basis have weakened significantly [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream consumers tend to buy on rising prices, and the sustainability of increased trading volume needs to be observed [20]. - **Bottle - Chip**: It follows the rise of polyester raw materials [21]. - **Propylene**: The price difference with PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates [3]. - **PP**: The rebound of oil prices and minor support from maintenance lead to oscillation [28]. - **Plastic**: The rebound of oil prices and increased downstream trading volume result in oscillation [27]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates upward with the rebound of crude oil [16]. - **PVC**: It oscillates at a low valuation with weak expectations [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market oscillates [31]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.34 with a change of 0.05, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 6 [33]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 81 with a change of - 102, and the number of warehouse receipts is 13040 [34]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 164 with a change of 57 [35]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but does not provide specific data analysis in the given text. It only lists the names of these products [36][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of commodities are presented. The commodity 20 index is 2531.94 with a decline of 0.48%, the industrial products index is 2204.41 with an increase of 0.87%, and the energy index on October 22, 2025, has a daily increase of 2.01% [279][281].