1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to be volatile in the short term and likely to strengthen in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Expected to remain range - bound [5] - **Corn and Starch**: Short - term: Consider closing out short positions and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; Long - term: Support for low - buying in far - month contracts [6][7] - **Hogs**: Expected to be volatile. Spot and near - month prices are likely to be weak, while far - month contracts are supported by de - capacity expectations [1][7] - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [11] - **Cotton**: Short - term: Range - bound; After new cotton is on the market: May face downward pressure [11][12] - **Sugar**: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish in the long term; Short - term: Range - bound between 5500 - 5750 [15] - **Pulp**: Expected to be volatile [16] - **Logs**: Expected to be weak in the near term and stronger in the far term [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex pattern with different trends for various products. The hog cycle is still in a downward phase in the short - to - medium term but may turn around in 2026 if de - capacity policies are implemented. Oils and fats are affected by factors such as weather, trade, and demand, with short - term volatility and medium - term upward potential. Protein meal is expected to remain range - bound. Other products like natural rubber, cotton, etc., also have their own supply - demand and market factors influencing their price trends [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to concerns about US soybean demand, US soybeans declined on Wednesday, and domestic oils continued to consolidate. The macro environment includes a weaker US dollar and falling crude oil prices. The US soybean growing area is affected by drought, and the export outlook is pessimistic. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decrease seasonally, and palm oil inventory accumulation may be limited. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: Short - term: Volatile adjustment; Medium - term: Likely to strengthen [5] 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: International soybean prices are affected by weather, with a possible reduction in US soybean yields in the September report. Brazilian soybean premiums have adjusted, and US soybean exports are affected by the trade war. Domestically, the market is range - bound, and demand may improve as the temperature drops [5] - **Outlook**: Range - bound. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low levels [5] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: Corn prices are generally stable, with local declines. Supply is affected by the release of old - crop inventory and the upcoming new - crop supply. Demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. The price difference between corn and wheat is increasing, and wheat substitution may decline [6][7] - **Outlook**: Short - term: Close out short positions and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; Long - term: Support for low - buying in far - month contracts [6][7] 3.4 Hogs - **Logic**: Supply is abundant in the short term, with an expected increase in the second half of the year. Demand shows a stable ratio of fat to lean pigs. Inventory weight has decreased slightly. In the long term, de - capacity policies may drive price increases in 2026 if implemented [1][7] - **Outlook**: Volatile. Spot and near - month prices are likely to be weak, while far - month contracts are supported by de - capacity expectations [1][7] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The price is range - bound between 157 - 161. There are many speculation themes, and the short - term supply is limited while demand is stable. The price may rise due to seasonality [10] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [10] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price is range - bound, following natural rubber and supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. Butadiene supply is under no significant pressure, and demand is stable [11] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [11] 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for cotton prices. The expected increase in purchase prices is limited by the expected large increase in new cotton production. After new cotton is on the market, prices may face downward pressure [11][12] - **Outlook**: Short - term: Range - bound; After new cotton is on the market: May face downward pressure [11][12] 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: International sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic imports are rising, resulting in downward pressure on prices [15] - **Outlook**: Long - term: Volatile and slightly bearish; Short - term: Range - bound between 5500 - 5750 [15] 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The decline is mainly due to the low acceptance of BCTMP pulp. After the 09 contract delivery, the pressure may be alleviated. The market shows a differentiated performance among different types of pulp [16] - **Outlook**: Volatile [16] 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The price decline is due to lower foreign quotes and weaker domestic spot prices. The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. Supply pressure will ease in the coming weeks [17][18] - **Outlook**: Weak in the near term and stronger in the far term [18]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the gold market, analyzing the reasons for gold price fluctuations and providing future price outlooks [1][3][7] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Gold prices are in a high - level oscillation, with multiple factors contributing to an upward trend. The core market contradictions are the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks [1][7] Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Multiple Fed officials believe labor - market concerns are the main reason for future rate cuts. Trump is still committed to promoting peace between Russia and Ukraine. Trump's government asked the Supreme Court to rule on tariff - collection rights [2] Price Logic - US economic data in August was mixed. Weak employment data strengthened the rate - cut expectation in September, while strong service - sector data added uncertainty. The market is waiting for non - farm payroll data, and the "August effect" may make the 9 - month rate - cut expectation fluctuate [3] Political and Policy Uncertainty - Concerns about the Fed's independence and potential political influence on the easing path, along with fiscal risks from tariff issues, provide support for gold [4] Future Outlook - Technically, gold's next target is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the $49 - $50 historical high. The weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3350, 3600], and the weekly London silver spot in the range of [38, 42] [7] Commodity Index - On September 4, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all declined. The precious - metals index fell 0.31% on the day, rose 3.73% in the past 5 days, 4.18% in the past month, and 28.75% year - to - date [45][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "Oscillation" [7][8][9] Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures are seeing a trend of capital rotation, with the market style possibly returning to a dumbbell structure, and investors are advised to adjust their portfolios accordingly [7] - Stock index options should continue with a hedging and defensive approach, and it is recommended to hold put options for defense [7][8] - The stock - bond seesaw continues to drive the release of long - term sentiment in treasury bond futures, but the market sentiment remains cautious, and the subsequent trend may be oscillatory [8][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts was - 15.81 points, - 10.67 points, - 51.45 points, and - 38.15 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 14.02 points, 1.32 points, 28.21 points, and 26.12 points [7] - The price difference between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM was 7.4 points, 0.0 points, 57.6 points, and 59.0 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.8 points, - 2.2 points, 7.6 points, and - 8.2 points [7] - The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 12436 lots, 8984 lots, 16332 lots, and 5496 lots [7] - The equity market declined across the board, with the Sci - Tec 50 and ChiNext Index leading the decline. The technology sector may experience capital withdrawal, and investors are advised to switch to a dumbbell - style portfolio or reduce IM long positions [7] Stock Index Options - The equity market continued to weaken, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.25% in a single day. The trading volume of each option variety increased by 22.27%, the average position PCR indicator decreased by 12.68%, and the implied volatility of current - month contracts strengthened [7][8] - It is recommended to continue holding put options for defense [7][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and position changes of T, TF, TS, and TL next - quarter contracts varied. The cross - period and cross - variety price differences also had corresponding changes, and the basis of each variety also changed [8] - The central bank announced a 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, but considering the maturity of 100 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase this month, it is hard to say it is beneficial to the bond market [8][9] - Trend strategy: Oscillation. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Look for long - end arbitrage opportunities. Curve strategy: Consider steepening the yield curve [9] 2. Economic Calendar - In the EU, the unemployment rate in the eurozone in July was 6.2%, the preliminary CPI year - on - year in August was 2.1%, the preliminary core CPI year - on - year was 2.3%, the PPI month - on - month in July was 0.4%, and the PPI year - on - year was 0.4% [10] - In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, the ADP employment number in August was 134,617,000, and the new ADP employment number was 54,000 [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote the high - end, intelligent, and green development of the industry [11] - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Releasing the Potential of Sports Consumption and Further Promoting the High - Quality Development of the Sports Industry", focusing on expanding sports consumption scenarios [12] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully provided in the given text [13][17][29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", indicating that the expected price fluctuations are within plus or minus one standard deviation in the next 2 - 12 weeks [7][97] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term impact of military parade production restrictions has ended, and enterprises in the industrial chain are resuming production. Hot metal is expected to return to a high level of 240,000 tons per day, supporting the demand for furnace materials. The performance of peak - season demand and domestic and foreign macro - policies will further intensify the sector's fluctuations [7] - Future market focus will revolve around "downstream inventory replenishment", "peak - season demand", and "overseas interest rate cuts", and attention should be paid to the possibility of the sector rising under the resonance of these three factors [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Due to the military parade production restrictions, hot metal production decreased significantly, but since September 4th, blast furnaces in Tangshan have resumed production intensively. It is expected that the impact on hot metal production reduction will be limited, and it is expected to return to a high level next week. The total iron ore inventory has increased slightly. If downstream inventory replenishment starts before the National Day, the fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The low profit of electric furnaces and tight resources are expected to keep the short - term price oscillating [2] 2. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to remain oscillating under demand support. After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the coking coal price [2] 3. Alloys - For manganese silicon, the prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. In the long - term, there is still significant downward pressure on the price, and attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. For silicon iron, the current cost still provides some support, but in the long - term, as the market supply - demand relationship becomes looser, the price center will tend to decline, and attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has weak real - world demand, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline oscillatingly. Soda ash still has an oversupply situation. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The fundamentals are weak, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory accumulating rapidly. After the military parade, hot metal production may recover, and attention should be paid to the release of short - term inventory replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the price [8] - **Iron Ore**: Supply and inventory are stable, and there is an expectation of demand recovery. The fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily consumption has decreased slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate due to low electric - furnace profits and tight resources [10] - **Coke**: After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [11] - **Coking Coal**: After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the price [12] - **Glass**: Real - world demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After mid - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline oscillatingly [12] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is weak, and there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The current cost provides some support, but in the long - term, the price center will tend to decline. Attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 4, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical products leading the decline [10][12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate later, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate at a low level, and crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate with a weak bias [17][24][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity indices fell and CGB futures rose on September 4. Most commodities declined, with energy and chemical products leading the drop [10][12]. - Among China's commodity futures, the top three gainers were rapeseed, iron ore, and egg; the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, LSFO, and fuel oil [10][11][12]. - In financial futures, IC declined by 2.4% and TL increased by 0.3% [11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Iron Ore**: On September 4, it rose 1.7% to 791.5 yuan/ton. Demand is high, supply and inventory are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate later [15][17]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On September 4, it rose 0.2% to 2519 yuan/ton. Protein meal may continue to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to international weather and domestic supply - demand changes [21][24]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Crude Oil**: On September 4, it decreased by 2.2% to 481 yuan/barrel. Oil prices are likely to fluctuate with a weak bias, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and geopolitical risks [28][30]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Leaders of China and the DPRK will hold talks to strengthen cooperation [35][36]. - The "Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry (2025 - 2026)" was issued, with specific development targets set [35][36]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of the end of July, the number of QFIIs reached 900, with 40 new ones added this year. The CSRC will introduce more reform measures to promote capital market opening [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The total global iron ore shipping volume this period was 3657 (+24) million tons. Specifically, Australia's shipping volume decreased quarter - on - quarter, while Brazil and non - mainstream countries' shipping volume increased quarter - on - quarter. The domestic ore arrival volume was 2526 (+133) million tons, as the ore from the previous shipping peak period arrived successively [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalog Global Shipping Volume - On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 3556.8 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 241 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 107.9 million tons [3]. Shipping Volume by Region - **Australia**: On August 29, 2025, the shipping volume was 1811.5 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 69.5 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6 million tons. Rio Tinto and non - mainstream mines decreased quarter - on - quarter, FMG's shipping volume slightly decreased, and BHP's shipping volume increased. Overall, Australia's shipping volume decreased [2][3]. - **Brazil**: On August 29, 2025, the shipping volume was 996.6 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 184.9 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 62.4 million tons. Vale's shipping volume increased quarter - on - quarter, while non - mainstream mines decreased [2][3]. - **Non - mainstream countries**: The shipping volume increased quarter - on - quarter [2]. Shipping Volume by Major Mines - **Rio Tinto**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 611 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 114.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.2 million tons; the shipping volume to China was 472.1 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 124.5 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.8 million tons [3]. - **BHP**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 522.7 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 61.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 49.5 million tons; the shipping volume to China was 447.4 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 62 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 31.8 million tons [3]. - **FMG**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 435 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.4 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 60.9 million tons; the shipping volume to China was 388.7 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 28.1 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 70.9 million tons [3]. - **Vale**: On August 29, 2025, the global shipping volume was 803.7 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 230.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.6 million tons [3]. Domestic Ore Arrival Volume - On August 29, 2025, the domestic ore arrival volume was 2526 million tons, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 132.7 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 316.8 million tons [3]. Shipping Ratio to China from Australia - On August 29, 2025, the ratio of Australia's shipping volume to China was 0.801, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.081 and a year - on - year increase of 0.01 [3].

期货有限公司 Futures Company Limited 政策落地预期升温,多晶硅价格再度回升 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 9月1日，多磊硅酶货车力合约大幅上涨6.0%，收于52285元吨。我们认为今日多磊硅价格上涨主要受到三方面因素能动：一是市场对落后产帮出清及落在产业重组针划关注度升高；高，二 是8月多最硅供应大幅回升后，市场预期9月起行业或将实施服产限售搭施以缓解棋需压力；三是头部企业服价或进一步上行，根据SMM标值，国内头部多最硅企业报价上调，其中棒状联主 流报价上涨至55元/千克,颗粒硅报价49元/千克。 基本面情况 多晶配行情已进入"政策地观"，市场对供给侧改革方案及政策落地出程关注度显著提升，短期价格维持贡匾震荡，走势高度依赖政策信号的强弱与执邪专。若供给侧相关方案及时 出台、产能出清路径清晰，价格有望持续偏强；否则市场情绪区将回落，交易将重新回归基本面。策略上，投资者可根据自身定位与风险偏好灵活应对，机构投资者可考虑卖出远月虚值看跌 期权,获取权利金收益。 风险提示 风险因素:供应端超预期减产;国内政策变化 研究员: | 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 | 投 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - As of August 31, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds was 74.2%, with 188 billion yuan issued this week, a decrease of 51.3 billion yuan week-on-week. In August, the cumulative issuance of new special-purpose bonds was 486.5 billion yuan [4]. - As of August 31, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 77.6%, with 35.3 billion yuan issued this week, an increase of 25.8 billion yuan week-on-week. In August, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 82.5 billion yuan [7][9]. - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 243.5 billion yuan, an increase of 34.7 billion yuan week-on-week. As of August 31, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 74.7% [11]. - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was -237.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 589.7 billion yuan week-on-week. As of August 31, the net financing progress of national bonds was 69.7% [15][17]. - As of August 31, the combined issuance progress of national bond net financing and new local government bonds was 71.9% [19]. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Directory Summaries There is no clear directory information provided in the content, so this part cannot be summarized accordingly.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is currently in a weak position as the restocking phase has ended, but the decline after the new grain harvest is expected to be less than last year. Short - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; long - term, consider low - buying when the futures price falls below cost [1][2]. - The oil market may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but is likely to strengthen in the medium term due to factors such as increased demand for palm oil and soybean oil from overseas biodiesel, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [6]. - The protein meal market will continue to fluctuate within a range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises should buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7]. - The pig market is in a low - level oscillation. Before the National Day, the inventory will be gradually released, and the spot and near - month prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract is supported by the expectation of capacity reduction, presenting a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - The natural rubber market has no obvious short - term drivers and will maintain range - bound trading, with a short - term upward bias [12]. - The synthetic rubber market will maintain range - bound trading, and the short - term price is expected to rise slightly and the market may be strong [13]. - The cotton market has support but lacks upward drivers. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. - The sugar market is in a downward trend. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new season, the price is expected to be weak; in the short term, it will fluctuate within the range of 5550 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market has unclear core drivers and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - The log market is in a weak oscillation. Technically, it is in a downward trend, but the supply will ease in the future, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oil**: Due to pessimistic demand expectations, US soybeans fell on Tuesday while US soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market continued to fluctuate. Factors such as the US soybean's reduced excellent - rate, the impact of Sino - US trade relations on export demand, and the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil were considered. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, and the inventory increase of Malaysian palm oil in August may be limited. The short - term outlook is for continued oscillation and adjustment, and the medium - term outlook is for a strong trend [6]. - **Protein Meal**: International soybean prices are affected by weather and Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean excellent - rate has decreased, and the 9 - month supply - demand report may lower the yield per unit. The domestic market has limited room for price decline, and the demand is expected to increase steadily. The outlook is for range - bound trading [7]. - **Corn/Starch**: The domestic corn price is generally stable. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The wheat substitution may decrease. The short - term outlook is to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and the long - term outlook is to consider low - buying [1][9]. - **Pig**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. The demand is affected by temperature changes, and the inventory is gradually being released. The market shows a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. There are some positive factors such as the approaching seasonal rise period, but the short - term upward space is limited [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the natural rubber market and is supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. The short - term price is expected to rise slightly [13]. - **Cotton**: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar supplies are increasing, and the price is under downward pressure. The long - term outlook is for a weak trend, and the short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the core driver of the futures is unclear. The price is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Log**: The spot price is falling, and the market is in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure will ease in the future, and the market may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the monitored varieties including oilseeds, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided [21][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for the expected price trends of varieties, including strong, oscillating - strong, oscillating, oscillating - weak, and weak, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases on September 3, 2025 [172]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 3, 2025, the agricultural product index had a daily decline of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 0.13%, a 1 - month decline of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.74% [174].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are relatively stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, boosting market expectations of interest rate cuts. At the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August, Powell's dovish stance exceeded market expectations. On August 25, Trump removed the hawkish Fed governor Cook, further increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. Currently, the US consumer's willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating widely at a low level, and the actual salary growth of US consumers is flat. The ability of residents to consume still awaits the transmission of interest rate cuts. Loose expectations and asset revaluation are expected to have a positive feedback effect on investment and consumption, but sticky service inflation, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [8] - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recently, demand - side policies in first - tier cities have been frequently introduced. The marginal relaxation of policies is expected to boost trading volume, but the sustainability remains to be seen. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size narrowed to - 1.7%. "Anti - involution" has enabled the raw material processing industry to obtain a larger share of profits, while both upstream mining and downstream consumer goods industries have seen their profits squeezed. The issue of anti - involution still has a long way to go. In the real estate sector, first - tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have successively introduced policies to relax purchase restrictions and optimize provident funds. Compared with previous policies, the overall intensity of this round of policies is relatively weak. Structurally, the relaxation of new homes in the suburbs of core cities is relatively stronger, aiming to guide residents to digest the inventory of suburban new homes first, which has a marginal support for developers' liquidity [8] - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: For stock index futures, the chips show signs of loosening, and the short - term judgment is volatile upward. For stock index options, the strategy is mainly for hedging and defense, and the short - term judgment is volatile. For treasury bond futures, continue to pay attention to the performance of the stock market, and the short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Precious Metals**: The expansion of interest rate cut expectations is beneficial to the price. For gold and silver, it is expected that the US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be noted. The short - term judgment is volatile upward [9] - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, the peak season in the third quarter has turned dull, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Black Building Materials**: After the parade, there are still upward expectations for the sector. For products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., they are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs to be emphasized. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The weakening of crude oil supply - demand and the decline of coking coal have dragged down the chemical industry. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural sector is in a high - level narrow - range volatility, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11]