Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for various agricultural products, including "Oscillation" for oils and fats, protein meals, corn and starch, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, and double - glue paper; "Oscillation Weakly" for sugar, paper pulp, and live pigs; and "Oscillation Strongly" for logs [1][5][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][18]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural products. For example, the price of natural rubber rebounds due to low valuation and bottom - position position - increasing; the inventory of Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate as Brazilian soybean planting progresses smoothly; the price of live pigs rebounds in the short - term but remains under supply pressure in the long - term [1][5][8]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory. The market is affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, trade negotiations, and production expectations. The outlook is for oil prices to oscillate [5]. - **Protein Meals**: With the increasing expectation of Sino - US relations easing, double - meal prices are under pressure in the low - level oscillation. The market is influenced by factors such as international soybean prices, import volume, and downstream demand. The outlook is for bean meal and rapeseed meal to oscillate [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The port inventory has slightly increased, and the spot price increase has slowed down. The market is affected by factors such as production expectations, weather, and demand. The outlook is for corn prices to oscillate [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Second - fattening continues to enter the market, and pig prices rebound in stages. However, the supply pressure remains. The market is affected by factors such as production capacity, demand, and inventory. The outlook is for pig prices to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The valuation is low, and the rubber price rebounds with increasing positions at the bottom. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - factors. The outlook is for rubber prices to oscillate and seek the bottom [1][9][10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the rise of natural rubber. However, due to high production and inventory, the outlook is for the price to oscillate and grind the bottom, with the possibility of hitting a new low this year [11][12]. - **Cotton**: The increase in the purchase price raises the cost, and the cotton price continues to rebound. The market is affected by factors such as production expectations and purchase prices. The outlook is for cotton prices to oscillate within a range and be slightly stronger this week [12][13]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - and long - term, the driving force is downward, and the sugar price oscillates weakly. The market is affected by factors such as global supply and demand and production expectations. The outlook is for sugar prices to oscillate weakly [13]. - **Paper Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the paper pulp price runs at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - factors. The outlook is for paper pulp prices to oscillate weakly [13][15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: It is the tender season, and the price of double - glue paper stabilizes. The market is affected by factors such as production, demand, and cost. The outlook is for the price to oscillate [16][17]. - **Logs**: Logs oscillate strongly. The market is affected by factors such as port fees, supply and demand, and inventory. The outlook is to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low positions for the 01 contract in the future weeks [18]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, corn and starch, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, paper pulp and double - glue paper, and logs [20][51][110][123][138][161]. 3. Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "Strong", "Oscillation Strongly", "Oscillation", "Oscillation Weakly", "Weakly", and the corresponding expected price changes and time periods [173].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Global Market Volatility**: There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic effect of government shutdowns and data vacuums on interest - rate cut expectations is reduced, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline, increasing market volatility. In the domestic market, there are marginal policy changes, and physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7]. - **Asset Performance**: Precious metals and equity markets, which were most benefited from liquidity, may face increased short - term volatility. In the domestic market, low - valued commodity assets may rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Index and Asset Price Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4577.6, up 1.57% daily, 2.06% weekly, down 0.87% monthly and quarterly, and up 16.75% this year. The SSE 50 futures closed at 3004.8, up 1.16% daily, 1.41% weekly, up 0.53% monthly and quarterly, and up 12.20% this year. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7052.8, with a complex set of fluctuations including a 2.08% daily increase and others [4]. - **Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.372, up 0.04% daily, down 0.01% weekly, and flat monthly and quarterly, down 0.58% this year. The 5 - year treasury bond futures closed at 105.715, up 0.06% daily, down 0.06% weekly, up 0.08% monthly and quarterly, down 0.77% this year [4]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.6219, unchanged daily, up 0.07% weekly, up 0.82% monthly, and down 9.03% this year. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1642, with various pip - based fluctuations [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Overseas, COMEX gold closed at 4374.3, up 2.49% daily, 12.5% monthly, and 65.74% this year. NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 56.93, down 0.56% daily, 8.81% monthly, and 20.79% this year. In the domestic market, the container shipping European line index was at 1769.3, up 5.19% daily, 6.93% weekly, and down 21.61% this year [4][5]. 3.2 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock markets showed a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles. Stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, considering factors such as the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increased risk of the Fed's independence [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline. The container shipping European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter fades, and there is a lack of upward - driving force [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The industry's demand data is poor, and it is expected that policies will release positive signals. Steel, iron ore, coke, and other products are expected to fluctuate, with various influencing factors such as policy changes, supply - and - demand situations, and production data [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: They are waiting for the clarity of macro - policies, and basic metals are in a state of shock consolidation. Copper, aluminum, zinc, and other metals have different short - term expectations based on factors such as supply - and - demand, policy, and inventory [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade - tension situation has slightly eased, but the supply - and - demand pattern of energy and chemicals remains weak. Crude oil, LPG, and many other products are expected to fluctuate, with most showing a downward - trending or complex - fluctuating state due to factors such as cost, supply - and - demand, and policy [10]. - **Agriculture**: The mood has warmed up, but the trends are differentiated. Oils, protein meals, and other agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as planting progress, weather, and trade relations [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is affected by alumina production cuts, with the main contract of caustic soda falling 4.37% to 2,344 yuan/ton today [1]. - In the short - term, upstream maintenance of caustic soda is frequent in mid - October, supply pressure eases, and caustic soda spot stabilizes. In the medium - term, supply and demand of caustic soda both increase, and the spot may be in a volatile state [2]. - Looking ahead, supply and demand of caustic soda will both increase, the futures market may enter a wide - range oscillation, and it is advisable to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Caustic soda production starts low and then rises. In mid - October, there are many maintenance activities, and caustic soda production decreases month - on - month; from November to December, there is less maintenance, and production tends to increase. New capacity is concentrated in Q3, and there are still 250,000 tons of capacity to be put into production in Hebei in Q4 [2]. Demand - Alumina production cuts and new production coexist, non - aluminum industry is about to enter the off - season, and exports are average. Specifically: 1) Alumina operating capacity has reached a high level, industry profits are poor, and marginal plants have started to cut production recently; 2) Wenfeng's procurement eases the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong, but Weiqiao's caustic soda receipts are equal to daily consumption, inventory is high, and the purchase price may remain stable; 3) The commissioning of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in 2026 will boost caustic soda demand, and some factories have issued caustic soda procurement tenders; 4) Non - aluminum operating rate is stable, restocking willingness is low, and the operating rate will weaken from November to December. There are no large export orders heard [2]. Valuation - Valuing liquid chlorine at 0 yuan/ton, the comprehensive cost of caustic soda is about 2,250 yuan/ton. The probability of liquid chlorine price decline is high, and the cost center of caustic soda is expected to move up [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in a state of "oscillation" or "oscillation on the weak side," suggesting a relatively cautious view of the energy and chemical industry [3][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's Q3 economic data is strong, but the weakness in the energy and chemical sector mainly stems from the supply side. The good economic data provides some support to the crude oil market, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [1]. - The export of chemical products in September generally maintained a good trend, with polyester products performing particularly well. Expanding overseas markets may be the future hope for the chemical industry [2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry is still anchored by crude oil and is expected to continue its weak oscillation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Macroeconomic Situation - China's Q3 GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the GDP growth rate from January to September was 5.2%. In September, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year - on - year. The demand for petroleum in September increased by 6% year - on - year, continuing the positive year - on - year growth since June [1]. - The President of Ukraine stated that the Russia - Ukraine conflict will not end soon, but the pre - conditions for peace have emerged. Russia's oil transportation to India continues [8]. 3.2 Product - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Macroeconomic factors disrupt the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: Supply is in an increasing phase dominated by the high - growth rate of OPEC+ production. Later, there will be pressure on accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation due to the peak and decline of refinery operations. Although China's inventory has decreased recently, overseas and sea - borne inventories have increased, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still being realized. The fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and macro - risks are fluctuating. Oil prices are expected to continue their weak oscillation. If concerns about tariffs ease or there are temporary geopolitical risks, oil prices may rebound but the downward trend is difficult to reverse [8]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price is testing the 3200 resistance level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the positive impact of China - US negotiations remains. In the short term, crude oil has entered an oscillation mode, and asphalt futures prices will follow the oscillation of crude oil. The asphalt spot price has been continuously falling, the asphalt - fuel oil price difference is expected to continue to decline, the asphalt production plan in October has increased by 19% year - on - year, the supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the driving force supporting the high premium of asphalt has significantly weakened. The pricing power of asphalt futures is expected to return to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the pressure on asphalt inventory accumulation is still high. Currently, asphalt is still overvalued compared to crude oil, rebar, low - sulfur fuel oil, and high - sulfur fuel oil, and the overvalued premium is starting to decline [9]. 3.2.3 Fuel Oil - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: The fuel oil futures price has entered an oscillation mode. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export discount to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled. Among the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil (the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and the Palestine - Israel conflict), the Palestine - Israel conflict and the Russia - US call have a negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short term, the fuel oil futures price will follow the oscillation of crude oil. As refinery operations increase, the demand for fuel oil processing by refineries gradually increases, but the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, the demand for residue processing is sluggish, and the peak power - generation season in the Middle East is coming to an end, so the demand for fuel oil is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has declined following crude oil, and the 3500 resistance level is effective in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and substitution by high - sulfur fuel oil. It is undervalued and is expected to follow the movement of crude oil. Fundamentally, the reduction of export tax rebates for refined oil products in China and the cancellation of export tax rebates for UCO have increased the supply pressure of refined oil products in China. The pressure to reduce oil and increase chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, which is facing a trend of increased supply and decreased demand and may maintain a low - valuation operation [11]. 3.2.4 Chemical Products - **PX** - **Viewpoint**: Cost drags down the absolute price, but the processing margin has been repaired due to the improvement in supply - demand on a month - on - month basis. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are generally oscillating weakly, and the cost support is weak. There is no obvious positive support from its own supply - demand, and the marginal changes in supply - demand are limited. The import volume of PX in September remained stable with narrow fluctuations. Under the situation of strong supply and demand of PX, and with the expected commissioning of PTA, there is some support for downstream demand, and the downward space for the processing margin is limited [12]. - **PTA** - **Viewpoint**: Under the expectation of new plant commissioning and restart, both the basis and the processing margin are under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost support is average, the atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and PTA follows the cost to oscillate and decline. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The new Fengming plant is about to be commissioned, so there is some supply pressure. The downstream polyester demand is stable, and there is more speculative replenishment at low prices. Polyester factories have enough space to offer promotions after profit repair, and the sales volume has increased slightly. The overall price mainly fluctuates following the upstream and macro - economic sentiment [12]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Viewpoint**: After the profit improvement, there is more room for profit to promote sales, the inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the support for the low processing margin has increased. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is not good, and the short - fiber price has declined following the cost. In terms of the supply - demand pattern, short - fiber is still generally stronger than the upstream. There is still support at the low processing margin. After the weather turns cold, orders are being placed smoothly, and the export data is strong. There is no expectation of inventory accumulation in the short - fiber industry in the short term, and there is support for demand at the end of the peak season [21]. - **Bottle Chips** - **Viewpoint**: There is not much positive support from the fundamentals, and the low price stimulates the increase in speculative replenishment demand. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polymerization cost is average, and the bottle - chip price has declined following the cost. The spot processing margin has slightly decreased. The export data of polyester bottle chips in September was average, showing a decline compared to August. The demand is in the off - season, and there is no obvious driving force for supply - demand [22]. - **Styrene** - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is weak and inventory continues to accumulate, and styrene resumes its downward trend. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment for pure benzene in the future is still pessimistic. With styrene's own profit at a low level, the number of maintenance operations has increased, and the supply - demand situation has slightly improved. However, the biggest current pressure is the high port inventory. As the end - of - year seasonal inventory accumulation period approaches, the concern about over - inventory persists, dragging down the performance of the industrial chain prices [17]. - **Methanol** - **Viewpoint**: The coal end provides slight support, and methanol is expected to oscillate widely. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the methanol futures price oscillated and may continue in the short term. The production enterprises are offering discounts to sell, and the downstream purchases on demand. The price is weakly declining. The port inventory of methanol is still at a relatively high level, but considering the high probability of disturbances from Iran approaching winter, methanol still has value for long - position investment at low prices. However, it is restricted by the overall weak sentiment in the energy and chemical industry, and the weakness of downstream olefins also limits the upward space of methanol. Therefore, it is advisable to view it as oscillating in the short term [26]. - **Urea** - **Viewpoint**: The price support of individual spot goods has weakened, and the urea futures price is continuously under pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 20, the mainstream spot prices of urea in Shandong and Hebei declined, and the downstream's follow - up purchases were cautious. Fundamentally, both supply and demand have weakened to a certain extent. The operation rate is at a relatively low level, and the agricultural demand has not improved. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and there is no effective positive support, so the futures price shows a narrow - range oscillation [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of substantial positive factors, and it is in a low - level range adjustment without fundamental driving forces. - **Main Logic**: The overall atmosphere in the chemical product market is cold, and ethylene glycol oscillates and declines. Fundamentally, supply is increasing while demand is stable. The operation rate of ethylene glycol is at a high level, and multiple integrated plants have restarted. Although there will be maintenance operations at Shell and Fulian plants later, they are all short - term shutdowns with limited impact. The port inventory continues to accumulate gradually, and the price is still under pressure under the expectation of weakening supply - demand [18]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)** - **Viewpoint**: The oil price is still weak, and plastic oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price is still weak, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for plastic itself is still limited. It is now in the second half of the "Golden September and Silver October" period. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of the price. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. In the short term, the futures price has slightly stabilized near the previous low, and the support strength should be monitored [31]. - **PP** - **Viewpoint**: The weakness of the oil price continues, and PP oscillates on the weak side. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates weakly, the fundamental pressure persists, the geopolitical support is weakening marginally, and the macro - economic expectation is constantly fluctuating. The indication of the oil price is still pessimistic. The oil price has a limited impact on the expected US production next year, and it is still in the downward - seeking bottom stage. If there are positive macro - economic and geopolitical factors, it will rebound, but the downward trend is difficult to reverse. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Currently, the production continues to increase year - on - year, but the demand support is limited, and the high - level inventory will still suppress the price performance. The profit support is limited. The profit of oil - based refineries is stable under the weak oil price, the coal - based profit has slightly declined, and the profit of gas - based ethane is still good. PP has slightly stabilized near 6600, and the focus of subsequent attention is the change in maintenance operations [32]. - **PVC** - **Viewpoint**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, and the cost is stable. Specifically, the autumn maintenance of upstream plants increased in mid - October, so the PVC production will decline; the downstream operation has recovered stage by stage, and only the low - price purchases have increased; the export order signing of PVC has improved; the operation rate of calcium carbide has decreased, and the number of PVC maintenance operations has increased, so the calcium carbide price is weakly stable; there coexist the marginal production reduction of alumina plants and the stockpiling for new plant commissioning, and the caustic soda spot may fluctuate narrowly. The static cost of PVC is 5190 yuan/ton, and the dynamic cost is expected to remain stable [35]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the disturbance of China - US tariffs has resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the negotiations between the two sides at the APEC meeting. At the micro - level, the medium - and long - term demand growth for caustic soda may be limited, and the production may also increase. The spot price may oscillate narrowly, manifested as: the alumina market remains in surplus, and the industry profit is poor. Recently, marginal plants have started to reduce production; the procurement by Wenfeng has relieved the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong, but the caustic soda receipt volume of Weiqiao is equal to its daily consumption, and the caustic soda inventory of Weiqiao is high; the commissioning of a 4.8 - million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and some factories have issued caustic soda procurement tenders; the non - aluminum operation rate is stable, and the replenishment intention is not high, and the operation rate will decline from November to December; the production of caustic soda in late October is not high, and the production will increase after the end of maintenance and new plant commissioning in the future [36]. 3.3 Product Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., along with their changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are presented, as well as their changes [39]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The inter - product spreads between different products such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., are given, along with their changes [41].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [7] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [8] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating [10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, with supply - side policies yet to be clarified, the prices of new energy metals will continue to oscillate. In the long run, there is a strong expectation of supply contraction for silicon, especially polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in an upward phase, and the high - growth supply of lithium carbonate will limit the upside of lithium prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, domestic monthly industrial silicon production was 421,000 tons, a 9.1% month - on - month increase and a 7.3% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative production from January to September was 3.017 million tons, an 18.3% year - on - year decrease. In September, industrial silicon exports were 70,233 tons, an 8.4% month - on - month decrease and a 7.7% year - on - year increase; the cumulative exports from January to September 2025 were 561,000 tons, a 2.3% year - on - year increase. The latest domestic inventory was 445,500 tons, a 0.7% month - on - month increase [7] - **Main Logic**: Supply is increasing in the northwest and is expected to decrease in the southwest during the dry season. Demand has slightly improved, with polysilicon driving consumption up, the organic silicon DMC market stable, and aluminum alloy demand remaining rigid. The supply is generally loose, but coal price fluctuations provide some support, so the price will oscillate in the short term [7] Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The N - type re - feedstock polysilicon transaction price range is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The latest polysilicon warehouse receipt quantity on the GME is 9,150 lots, an increase of 540 lots from the previous value. From January to August 2025, domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 230.61 GW, a 65% year - on - year increase [8] - **Main Logic**: Production has recovered to over 130,000 tons from August to September and is expected to remain high in October. The demand may weaken in the fourth quarter. The supply - demand situation is under pressure, and the price may reverse if policy expectations fade [8][9][10] Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On October 20, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract remained unchanged at 75,700 yuan/ton, and the total contract positions decreased by 594 to 706,153 lots. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 74,000 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 71,750 yuan/ton [10][11] - **Main Logic**: The current supply and demand are both strong, but there is an expectation of oversupply after the peak season. Supply is increasing, and demand is strong in the short term. Social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still high. The price will oscillate due to weak price drivers [11] 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the categories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate for market monitoring but does not provide specific monitoring content 3. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,231.41, a 0.06% decrease; the commodity 20 index was 2,533.64, a 0.15% decrease; the industrial products index was 2,183.97, a 0.37% increase [52] - **Sector Index**: The new energy commodity index on October 20, 2025, was 399.92, with a daily decline of 0.63%, a 5 - day increase of 2.23%, a 1 - month increase of 0.61%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.02% [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating, including soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [5] - Protein Meals: Oscillating, covering soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [6] - Hogs: Oscillating weakly [2][8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Cotton: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week [12] - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [13] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [14] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, while in the long - term, factors like production capacity changes and consumption trends play important roles. For example, the hog market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, with short - term supply pressure but potential relief in the second half of 2026 [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Continue to oscillate and consolidate, waiting for further information guidance. The market is affected by both macro and industrial factors. Macro factors include the US government "shutdown", expectations of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Industrial factors involve the suspension of US soybean data updates, expectations of lower US soybean yields, increased expected production of Brazilian new - season soybeans, and the inventory and export situations of palm oil [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate. The market lacks upward momentum due to factors such as the expected accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the suspension of US soybean data updates, and the smooth progress of Brazilian soybean planting [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **View**: Double meals are oscillating at a low level, and selling put options can be attempted. Internationally, US soybean production and exports are affected by policies, and Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestically, short - term oil mill operations are increasing, and downstream inventory levels are not low. In the medium - term, Sino - US trade relations and downstream replenishment after seasonal destocking need to be monitored. In the long - term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. The market should pay attention to the support level around 2850 - 2900, as well as weather and Sino - US trade trends. Selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [5]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: There is a temporary shortage at ports, leading to a continuous rebound in futures and spot prices. Short - term price increases are due to factors such as bad weather, farmers' reluctance to sell, port shortages, and state - owned reserve purchases. However, the selling pressure has not been fully released, and the market is expected to be oscillating weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. If prices rebound slightly due to recent weather disturbances and inventory shortages, short - selling opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, the expectation of tight annual supply supports the idea of low - buying in the far - month contracts [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Second - fattening replenishment has diverted part of the supply pressure, leading to a rebound in hog futures and spot prices. In the short - term, consumption is in the off - season, and supply is abundant. In the medium - term, the high - level production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 will lead to an increase in hog slaughter in the fourth quarter. In the long - term, sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction, and supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. Near - month contracts are under supply pressure, while far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The hog industry presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention can be paid to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [2][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Return to the oscillating bottom - grinding trend. The recent divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber is due to factors such as the impact of state - reserve sales on RU and the low import volume and limited warehouse receipts of NR. The raw material price of cup rubber is relatively firm, and there are still some weather disturbances in the producing areas. The demand for tires in the fourth quarter is expected to decline [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Due to high macro uncertainty, if the overall commodity performance is poor, rubber prices are expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom [10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market performance is dull, with narrow - range oscillations. High production this year has been a major pressure on the market. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than that of production, resulting in high social inventory. The price of butadiene, the raw material, has been fluctuating [11]. - **Outlook**: With high fundamental pressure and a lack of improvement in the raw material end, the market is expected to continue to oscillate and grind the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The purchase price has increased, leading to a rebound in cotton prices. The expected cotton production in Xinjiang has been adjusted downward, and the firm purchase price of seed cotton has provided cost - side support. In the short - term, the downward driving force of Zhengzhou cotton has weakened, and there is a demand for a rebound [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, and upstream enterprises are advised to hedge actively when prices are high [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are oscillating at a low level, with weak supply and demand. In the medium - and long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and sugar prices are in a bearish pattern. In the short - term, Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, but exports have increased, and domestic sales and inventory situations are not optimistic [13]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly as a whole, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [13]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Spot trading is light, and pulp prices are running at a low level. After the National Day, pulp futures have shown a bottom - oscillating trend. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, and the market is concerned about the high ratio of virtual to real pulp and the concentrated cancellation at the end of the year. However, the game sentiment for the 01 contract has weakened. In general, the pulp market is difficult to rise significantly [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The market is dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand conditions, and the weakness of pulp futures is difficult to reverse [14][15]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: With the approaching of tenders, offset paper prices may stabilize. The spot price center of offset paper remains stable, but the market is not active. The cost support is average, and the upcoming tenders have a pessimistic market expectation. Although the supply pressure has been alleviated to some extent, the increase in new production capacity in South China may restrict paper prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. There is a possibility of a slight decline in spot prices in the short - term [16]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Freight rates have increased, leading to the relatively strong operation of logs. The increase in port fees has raised the cost of some ships, affecting the price of logs. The market has been running weakly recently due to factors such as the negative impact of domestic timber delivery in Chongqing and the failure of the peak - season expectation. The inventory level is not low, and the demand in the real - estate market is weak [19]. - **Outlook**: In the next few weeks, due to the disturbance of increased port - fee costs, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the progress of foreign merchants' replacement of involved ships and the risk of price decline after the relaxation of Sino - US policies [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, precious metal prices may enter a shock adjustment phase, and when gold and silver prices fall below the 5 - day moving average, it can be regarded as a reference for phased profit - taking. In the long run, the contraction of the US dollar credit will drive up the value of physical currency, and the price centers of gold and silver will continue to move upward. The long - term bull market of gold has not reversed, and the silver price center is expected to follow the long - term upward trend of gold [1][3]. - The expected trading range for London gold spot this week is [3900, 4400] US dollars per ounce, and for London silver spot, it is [48, 55] US dollars per ounce [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Key Information - The Bank of Japan may slightly raise its economic growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 at its October policy meeting and maintain the view that the economy is moving towards a mild recovery. Bank of Japan official Takada So said it is necessary to further adjust monetary easing policies, the inflation target has basically been achieved, concerns about the impact of tariffs have eased, attention must be paid to the risk of inflation exceeding expectations in Japan, the process of reducing bond purchases must be cautious and time - consuming, the US economy is unlikely to experience a significant recession, and now is the best time to raise interest rates [2]. - US President Trump signed an executive order on October 17 (local time), imposing a new 25% tariff on imported medium - and heavy - duty trucks and parts starting from November 1, and will also impose a 10% tariff on imported passenger cars [2]. - White House economic advisor Hassett said that if the government shutdown does not end, the White House will consider taking stronger measures [2]. 2. Price Logic - On Monday during the Asian trading session, precious metals fluctuated. Before the opening of the domestic night session, the prices of gold and silver in the overseas market rose slightly, but immediately fell back after the opening of the domestic night trading session, and the domestic market was weaker than the overseas market. After the price volatility in the overseas and domestic markets significantly increased, both COMEX and domestic exchanges increased margin requirements and issued risk warnings, indicating a further over - heating risk in the market [1][3]. - In the short term, the positive factors are gradually being digested. Positive signals from China - US trade negotiations have reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Non - farm and inflation data are to be released this week, which may end the trading logic of "no news is good news" after the National Day. The silver lease rate has declined from its peak, and the overseas spot situation has been alleviated temporarily [3]. - In the long term, debt over - issuance and anti - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the US dollar credit. Gold, as a currency beyond sovereignty, is still the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks. The trend of global central banks' gold purchases remains unchanged, and the long - term bull market of gold has not reversed. The silver trend is still consistent with that of gold, and the value loosening of credit currency has a spill - over effect on physical currency, so the silver price center is expected to follow the long - term upward trend of gold [3]. 3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 20, 2025 is presented, including the characteristic index and the sector index. The commodity index is 2231.41, down 0.06%; the commodity 20 index is 2533.64, down 0.15%; the industrial products index is 2183.97, up 0.37%. For the precious metals index on October 20, 2025, the current value is 3394.67, with a daily decline of 3.31%, a 5 - day increase of 2.88%, a 1 - month increase of 16.11%, and a year - to - date increase of 53.44% [43][44][46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The A-share market does not have a basis for continuous adjustment, and the trend is bullish. It is recommended to hold a dumbbell structure during the volatile period. The option side should focus on selling options to increase income, and the short-term bond market remains cautious [1][2][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views a. Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the equity market opened higher and then fluctuated. The easing of trade frictions boosted market sentiment, but there are still variables. The trading volume remained low, with a full-day turnover of 1.75 trillion yuan, and the futures market showed a trend of reducing positions. Defensive stocks led the rise, indicating a conservative sentiment among funds. In the future, the impact of trade events on A-shares will decrease. It is recommended to hold a dumbbell structure, allocating dividend + IM long positions [1][6]. b. Stock Index Options - The overall market turnover of each option variety decreased by 25.57%, and the liquidity fell below 10 billion again. The implied volatility of options decreased by an average of 1.65%, and the sentiment indicator did not form a unilateral trend, indicating a slow - fluctuating market. It is recommended to focus on selling options to increase income [1][6][7]. c. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The decline was due to the possible weakening of the tariff war expectation and the strong performance of the stock market. The economic data in September and the third quarter were in line with expectations, having limited impact on the bond market. In the short term, the bond market may be greatly affected by policy factors and should remain cautious. It is recommended to adopt a trend strategy of being cautiously volatile, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, basis widening, and the curve may remain steep [2][7][9]. 2. Economic Calendar - On October 20, 2025, China announced a series of economic data, including the unchanged LPR rates, a decline in the year - to - date growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment in September, an increase in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in September, and the unchanged year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail总额. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8% [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the scope of tradable varieties for qualified overseas investors from the night session on October 28, 2025. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held on the 20th. China's economy grew by 5.2% in the first three quarters, faster than the same period last year. IBM and Groq established a strategic partnership [11][12]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific data summaries provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6][7][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, 2025, the main economic indicators for September were announced. Data in real estate, infrastructure, and other fields related to black building materials remained poor. The prices of leading sector varieties dropped from their intraday highs and remained under pressure at night. The demand side of the industry continued to be weak. With the "15th Five - Year Plan" meeting underway, the market still expects policy benefits to boost confidence [1][2] - Entering late October, the traditional peak season is ending, and with tariff disturbances, the demand side is unlikely to perform well. Although high molten iron still supports the furnace charge in the short term, the market's negative feedback expectation strengthens as the peak season ends. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the "15th Five - Year Plan" meeting releasing sector benefits [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments rebounded slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped from a high level. The demand side saw a slight decline in the average daily output of sample molten iron and the steel mill profitability rate, but molten iron remained at a high level. Port inventories continued to accumulate. The fundamentals of iron ore weakened marginally, but the overall pressure was not prominent. Policy expectations may cause fluctuations, and steel demand improved slightly. The future of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain, so short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume at steel mills decreased, and the electric furnace profit improved slightly. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no obvious contradictions. With the current pressure on finished product prices and poor electric furnace profits, short - term prices are expected to follow finished products [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The short - term supply and demand of coke remained tight. With rising costs, the second price increase was initiated, but steel prices were still weak. The price increase needs time to be implemented, and coke prices are expected to oscillate [2][11][13] - **Coking Coal**: Supply disturbances continued, and the production increment space of coal mines was limited. With low inventories, the fundamentals were healthy. Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate [2][11][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still room for the price center to decline in the future [3][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term peak demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on prices [3][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are weak. After the negative feedback between futures and spot, short - term prices show an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to oscillate downward [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - changes and oscillate widely. In the long run, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3][14] 3.5 Steel - The fundamentals of steel still have contradictions. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory level is still moderately high. With the domestic important meeting this week, attention should be paid to policy disturbances, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On October 20, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity 20 index was 2533.64, down 0.15%; the industrial products index was 2183.97, up 0.37%. The steel industry chain index was 1976.21, up 0.55% on the day, up 0.13% in the past 5 days, down 1.65% in the past month, and down 6.26% since the beginning of the year [102][104]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 20, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell; commodities showed mixed performances, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [9][12] - The industry presents a pattern of "weak current reality + strong future expectations" for live hogs in the fourth quarter, and the cycle is still in a downward phase in the short term, but supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 if production reduction is implemented [17][18][19] - Coking coal fundamentals remain relatively sound, with short - term support on the futures market, but there is a downside risk if important meetings fail to meet expectations [23][24][27] - Silver entered a correction phase, and long - position holders are advised to take profits in stages, while the central level of silver prices is expected to move upward in the long run [31][32] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On October 20, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Commodities showed mixed performances, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [9] - Among China's commodity futures, the top three gainers are live hog (up 2.9% with open interest down 4.1% month - on - month), coking coal (up 2.7% with open interest up 2.0% month - on - month), and apple (up 2.3% with open interest up 11.1% month - on - month). The top three decliners are silver (down 4.0% with open interest down 8.2% month - on - month), poly - silicon (down 3.7% with open interest down 16.7% month - on - month), and glass (down 2.4% with open interest up 4.2% month - on - month) [10][11][12] - Among China's financial futures, equity indices rose, with IC increasing by 0.6%. CGB futures fell, among which TL decreased by 0.4% [12] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Live Hog - On October 20, live hog increased by 2.9% to 12155 yuan/ton. The industry presents a pattern of "weak current reality + strong future expectations" in the fourth quarter [17][20] - In the short term, consumption is in the off - season, monthly slaughter volume increases, and the average weight of live hog remains high. The supply - demand relationship is loose, and the cycle is still in a downward phase. In the long term, if the anti - involution policy to reduce the number of sows by 1 million head is implemented, supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [18][19][20] 1.2.2 Coking Coal - On October 20, coking coal increased by 2.7% to 1216 yuan/ton. Due to frequent coal mine accidents and production inspections, there is limited room for further growth in coal mine production [23][27] - The fundamentals are relatively sound, with short - term support on the futures market, but there is a risk of decline if important meetings fail to meet expectations [24][27] - On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi resumed normal operations, while supply in Inner Mongolia Wuhai is still restricted. Import at Ganqimaodu Port decreased. On the demand side, coke output declined month - on - month, but short - term rigid demand provides support, and overall inventories remain at a low level [25][26][27] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Silver - On October 20, silver decreased by 4.0% to 11742 yuan/kg. Key data disclosure and events such as U.S. non - farm payrolls, inflation, retail data, U.S. government shutdown, and China - U.S. trade negotiations should be focused on [30][32] - With the transfer of silver inventories from New York to London, the spot supply tightness in LBMA has eased. Silver entered a correction phase, and long - position holders are advised to take profits in stages. In the long term, the central level of silver prices is expected to move upward [31][32] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The fourth plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee began in Beijing on the morning of October 20 [36][38][39] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 101.5036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. In the third quarter, GDP was 35.4500 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [36][38][39] - In September 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.1971 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, it was 36.5877 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.5% [38][39] - In September 2025, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 6.5% year - on - year. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% [38][39] - From January to September 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed asset investment fell by 3.1% year - on - year [38][39] 2.2 Industry News - Starting from the night trading session on October 28, 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the investment scope of Qualified Foreign Investors to LLDPE, PVC, PP Monthly Average Price Futures Contracts [40]