Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of increased steel import tariffs in India is likely to boost demand for South African thermal coal, as the tariffs aim to protect domestic steel producers from low-priced imports [2] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, suggesting that these companies may benefit from the current market dynamics [3][6] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of April 30, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) increased by $3.8/ton (+4.1%) to $97.5/ton, while European ARA coal decreased by $1.0/ton (-1.1%) to $93.8/ton [1][37] - South African coal exports are expected to rebound to over 6 million tons due to increased demand from the sponge iron industry [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies such as Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua, and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential growth [6] - Specific companies highlighted for their strong performance include China Coal Energy and Jinneng Holding, with EPS forecasts for 2024 ranging from 1.21 to 2.95 [6] Market Trends - The report notes a significant drop in energy prices, with Brent crude oil down by $3.00/barrel (-4.54%) and WTI down by $4.06/barrel (-6.52%) as of the latest review [1][14] - The overall coal market is experiencing fluctuations, with the potential for increased operational costs due to transportation challenges in South Africa [7]

Core Viewpoint - The coal chemical industry in China is characterized by a diverse range of listed companies, each with distinct business layouts and performance metrics, focusing on both traditional and modern coal chemical products [1][3][20]. Industry Overview - The coal chemical industry is supported by upstream coal mining companies, which provide raw materials, and is influenced by coal price fluctuations that affect production costs and profit margins [1]. - The industry is divided into traditional coal chemical (e.g., coal-based fertilizers, synthetic ammonia) and modern coal chemical (e.g., new coal-based energy and materials) [1]. Key Listed Companies - Major listed companies in the coal chemical sector include China Shenhua (601088), Yanzhou Coal (600188), Baofeng Energy (600989), and others, with varying degrees of involvement in the coal chemical value chain [1][3][4]. - China Shenhua is recognized as a global leader in coal-based comprehensive energy [3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, China Shenhua reported revenues of 1680.78 billion, while other companies like Yanzhou Coal and Baofeng Energy reported revenues of 723.12 billion and 168.97 billion respectively [4][5]. - The overall gross profit margins in the coal chemical sector vary significantly, with Baofeng Energy achieving a gross margin exceeding 40% [19]. Business Layout and Strategy - Companies are strategically located in resource-rich regions, primarily in North and East China, focusing on traditional coal chemical products while expanding into modern coal chemical sectors [16][18]. - Business strategies emphasize safety, environmental protection, energy efficiency, and technological advancement to align with national policies and market demands [20][21]. Employee Composition - China Shenhua has the largest workforce in the sector, employing approximately 83,400 individuals, including 11,400 technical staff [11]. Future Planning - Companies are focusing on high-quality development, with plans to enhance core competencies, ensure energy security, and promote green and sustainable practices [21][22].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector's overall performance in Q1 2025 showed a decline, with a total net profit of 24.12 billion yuan, down 41.5% year-on-year. Among 37 listed companies, 25 reported profits, with 23 experiencing a year-on-year decline in net profit [3] - The report suggests that the weak demand in Q1, influenced by holidays and higher temperatures, led to increased supply and falling coal prices. However, due to long-term contract pricing, the performance of thermal coal companies remained relatively stable. A rebound in coal prices is expected around mid-May [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand recovery and suggests that the current demand may represent the annual bottom, with a potential rebound in prices during the peak season [3] Industry Market Performance - As of April 29, the CITIC coal industry index fell by 3.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 2.89%. Year-to-date, the coal sector has dropped by 13.99%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 9.93 percentage points [10] - The coal industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 11.5, which is relatively low compared to other sectors, ranking 27th among 30 CITIC primary industries [10] Supply and Demand Situation - In Q1 2025, the average daily sales of the top 20 coal groups decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while national coal production increased by 8.1% to 1.2 billion tons [4][40] - The total coal consumption in China for Q1 2025 was 1.27 billion tons, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with the power sector consuming 740 million tons, down 3% [59] - The report indicates that coal prices have generally declined in Q1, with thermal coal prices at 767.6 yuan/ton, down 16.5% year-on-year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies during market dips, specifically mentioning China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy for thermal coal, and Huabei Mining and Lu'an Environmental Energy for coking coal [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent annual report of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group (601225.SH) reveals a slight increase in revenue but a decrease in net profit, highlighting the need for transformation in the coal and electricity industry due to cyclical fluctuations [2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, an increase of 1.47% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.21% [2]. - The coal production reached 170.4846 million tons, up 4.13% year-on-year, and coal sales increased to 258.4308 million tons, a rise of 9.13% [4]. - The average coal price fell to 561.30 yuan per ton, down 8.50% year-on-year [5]. Business Segmentation - In 2024, coal business revenue accounted for 88.34% of total revenue at 162.674 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, while electricity business revenue was 16.176 billion yuan, down 7.84% [8]. - The transportation business generated 0.876 billion yuan, up 0.51%, and other businesses contributed 4.420 billion yuan, down 13.96% [8]. Strategic Moves - The company has engaged in over 10 billion yuan in acquisitions to mitigate industry impacts, with a focus on coal-electricity integration [3][9]. - A significant acquisition of 15.695 billion yuan for an 88.6525% stake in Shaanxi Coal Power Group is aimed at enhancing operational synergy [9][11]. - The restructuring of non-core assets prior to the acquisition is intended to streamline operations and focus on core fire power generation [10]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates that electricity and chemical coal will be the main sources of coal consumption growth, with stable coal production expected [11]. - The energy market is expected to face tight supply-demand conditions during peak electricity consumption periods in 2025 [12].

Group 1 - The core investment strategy of Honghu Fund in Q1 2025 involved significant increases in holdings of Yili Co. and Shaanxi Coal, while maintaining its position in China Telecom [1][5][8] - Honghu Fund's holdings include 1.53 billion shares of Yili Co. valued at 4.289 billion yuan, and 1.16 billion shares of Shaanxi Coal valued at 2.304 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 2025 [5][8] - The fund's investment in China Telecom remained unchanged, with a holding of 760 million shares valued at 5.979 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in market value due to stock price appreciation [5][8] Group 2 - The fund's sector allocation shows a distribution of 47.56% in communication services, 34.12% in data services, and 18.33% in coal mining [4][3] - The total number of stocks held by Honghu Fund is three, with two stocks increased and one stock unchanged in Q1 2025 [3][5] - The insurance capital market is experiencing a significant increase in long-term stock investments, with the scale rising from 500 billion yuan to 1.62 trillion yuan, indicating a growing trend of insurance funds entering the equity market [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024 but a decline in net profit, with challenges in coal prices impacting performance in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 184.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.21% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 40.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, and a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan, down 1.23% [1]. - The company's coal production in Q1 2025 reached 43.94 million tons, an increase of 6.00% year-on-year, while self-produced coal sales were 39.55 million tons, up 5.81% [1]. Coal and Power Segment - The coal segment generated revenue of 162.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, but the gross profit decreased by 11.0% to 55.8 billion yuan [2]. - The company’s average selling price for coal was 561 yuan per ton, down 8.50% year-on-year, while the self-produced coal price was 532 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9.99% [1][2]. - In 2024, the company’s power generation was 37.6 billion kWh, an increase of 4.41% year-on-year, with sales of 35.1 billion kWh, also up 4.37% [2]. Project Development and Future Outlook - The company is advancing new coal and power projects, with production capacity at Yuan Datang coal mine increasing from 8 million tons/year to 10 million tons/year [3]. - The company has 11,320 MW of thermal power capacity under construction, with significant projects receiving approval [3]. - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, having distributed a total cash dividend of 1.348 yuan per share in 2024, with a dividend ratio of 65% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 157.8 billion yuan, 162.3 billion yuan, and 165.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 18.3 billion yuan, 17.8 billion yuan, and 18.7 billion yuan [3].

险资入市又有了新进展。 4月29日晚，新华保险公告称，公司拟出资不超过100亿元认购由国丰兴华（北京）私募基金管理有限公司发起 设立的私募基金的份额。该基金成立规模为200亿元，新华保险与中国人寿拟各出资100亿元认购私募基金份 额。 公告显示，该基金投资范围为中证A500指数成份股中符合条件的大型上市公司A+H股。 据了解，该私募基金的名称暂定为国丰兴华鸿鹄志远二期私募证券投资基金（简称"鸿鹄志远二期"），由国丰 兴华发起设立。鸿鹄志远二期存续期限为10年，私募基金贯彻长期投资理念，通过低频交易、长期持有的方式 以获得稳健股息收益。 鸿鹄志远二期的规模为200亿元，新华保险与中国人寿拟各出资100亿元认购私募基金份额。基金投资范围为， 中证A500指数成 份 股中符合条件的大型上市公司A+H股。 据新华保险公告，鸿鹄志远二期的投资标的应当公司治理良好、经营运作稳健、股息相对稳定、股票流动性相 对较好，与保险资金长期投资需求相适应。 新华保险表示，本次投资事项符合国家推动中长期资金入市的相关政策，以及未来本公司整体战略发展方向。 本公司坚持长期投资、价值投资和稳健投资的理念，积极发挥好长期资本、耐心资本、高能 ...

2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024 but a decline in net profit, with expectations for stable coal prices supporting long-term profitability and cash flow [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.21% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 40.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.30%, and net profit of 4.805 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.23% [1]. Coal and Power Business - The company increased its raw coal production to 170 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, and sales volume reached 258 million tons, up 9.13% [3]. - The average cost of raw selected coal was 289.92 yuan per ton, down 2.25% year-on-year, driven by reductions in material costs, maintenance, and taxes [3]. - The company has a total approved capacity of 162 million tons, with an increase in annual capacity at the Yuandatan coal mine from 8 million tons to 10 million tons [3]. - The company controls 8,300 MW of operational thermal power capacity and has 11,320 MW under construction, with expected growth in operational capacity from 10,300 MW in 2025 to 16,300 MW by 2027 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 21.15 billion yuan and 21.90 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 17% and 20% from previous estimates [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.18, 2.26, and 2.29 yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.4%, +3.6%, and +1.4% [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of around 60% from 2021 to 2024, with a target price adjustment to 28.36 yuan based on a 13x PE valuation for 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 and Q1 2025 performance, showing stable revenue despite a decline in net profit, primarily due to coal price drops and effective cost management [1][2][3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 184.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with a net profit of 22.36 billion yuan, down 3.2% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 48.71 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% in net profit [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 40.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, with a net profit of 4.80 billion yuan, down 1.2% [2]. Coal Business Performance - The coal business generated revenue of 162.67 billion yuan in 2024, up 3.0% year-on-year, but gross profit fell by 11.0% to 55.75 billion yuan [3]. - Coal production and sales increased, with 2024 raw coal production and sales reaching 170 million tons and 260 million tons, respectively, up 4.1% and 9.1% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 629 yuan per ton, down 5.6%, while the cost per ton increased by 2.8% to 414 yuan [3]. Power Business Contribution - The company completed the acquisition of Shaanxi Coal Power in December 2024, contributing 16.2 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year [4]. - The power business had a gross profit of 2.3 billion yuan, accounting for 3.8% of total gross profit, with a sales volume of 35.1 billion kWh, up 4.4% year-on-year [4]. Dividend Policy and Forecast - The total profit distribution for 2024 was 13.07 billion yuan, representing 65% of the distributable profit, with a cash dividend ratio of 60% [4]. - The company forecasts net profits of 18.70 billion, 19.67 billion, and 20.82 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.93, 2.03, and 2.15 yuan per share [5].