Group 1: Market Overview - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with an average weekly job loss of 13,500 positions over the past four weeks, up from 2,500 previously, leading to increased expectations for a Fed rate cut[4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 86.40%, up from 71.00% the previous week[4] - The US dollar index has fallen below 100, indicating a weaker dollar, while most equity markets have seen gains, with the A-share index rising across all but convertible bond indices[4] Group 2: Capital Flows - Both domestic and foreign capital have significantly flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign capital inflows of $22.57 million and domestic inflows of $30.41 million over the past week[4] - In the past week, global funds have seen a net inflow into money market funds, with emerging markets receiving more inflows than developed markets[4] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is at the 84.2% percentile compared to the S&P 500 and CAC 40, indicating relatively high valuation but still lower than US equities[4] - The risk-adjusted returns for the Shanghai Composite have improved, with its percentile rising from 83% to 88%[4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The US manufacturing PMI for October has weakened to 48.7, indicating economic cooling, while inflation expectations have declined[4] - In China, investment data continues to weaken, but CPI and PPI show signs of recovery, confirming further recovery signals[4] Group 5: Risk Sentiment - The S&P 500 closed at 6849.09, above the 20-day moving average, with a decrease in implied volatility, indicating improved market sentiment[4] - In the A-share market, there is a cautious attitude reflected in the options market, with significant reductions in positions for call options below 4950[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][38]. Core Views - The report highlights two major opportunities: the rise of favorable policies for quality housing and the potential revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets due to the current monetary easing cycle [4][38]. - It suggests that while the real estate market continues to stabilize, core cities are expected to recover sooner [4][38]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - In the week of November 22-28, 2025, 34 key cities saw a total new housing transaction volume of 2.52 million square meters, a decrease of 1.7% week-on-week [6][9]. - Year-on-year, November transactions in these cities dropped by 35%, with first and second-tier cities down by 33.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 51.4% [9][10]. Second-hand Housing Transaction Volume - In the same week, 13 cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction volume of 1.16 million square meters, an increase of 4.2% week-on-week [14][15]. - Year-to-date, the total transaction volume for second-hand housing is 5.37 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [14][15]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of November 22-28, 2025, 15 cities had a total of 1.37 million square meters of new housing launched, with a transaction volume of 1.03 million square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.75 [24][30]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.846 million square meters, a 0.4% increase week-on-week [24][30]. Policy and News Tracking Real Estate Industry - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of REITs to include hotels and commercial offices [33][34]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated a pilot program for commercial real estate REITs [33][35]. Company Announcements - New City Holdings successfully issued a private REIT with a scale of 616 million yuan [38][41]. - China Jinmao announced plans to sell 100% equity of its Sanya tourism business for 2.27 billion yuan [38][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7][6]. Core Views - The company is advancing its waterproof segment by acquiring Tangshan and Suzhou Yuanda Hongyu, enhancing its regional competitiveness and market share [7]. - The acquisition is deemed reasonably valued, with Tangshan Yuanda Hongyu's price-to-book (PB) ratio at 0.9 times and price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at 4.9 times based on 2024 net profit [7]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in waterproof demand by 2026, which may lead to significant profit elasticity [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 25,821 million yuan in 2024, with a slight increase to 25,997 million yuan in 2025, and further growth to 30,551 million yuan by 2027 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3,647 million yuan in 2024, decreasing to 3,516 million yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 4,802 million yuan by 2027 [6]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.6% in 2025 to 14.3% by 2027 [6]. Market Data - As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 25.31 yuan, with a market capitalization of 42,761 million yuan [2]. - The company has a dividend yield of 3.42%, and its price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 12 for 2025, decreasing to 9 by 2027 [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on the robotics supply chain and related companies [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the stock prices of companies in the robotics supply chain have adjusted recently, leading to lower expectations, while industry advancements continue [4]. - Key companies to watch include Tesla and Xiaopeng, along with robotics supply chain firms such as Hengbo, Shuanghuan, Longsheng, Fuda, and Yinlun [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong performance support and relatively low valuations, recommending KBD, Xingyu, Jifeng, and Songyuan [4]. - The report also notes the significant changes brought about by state-owned enterprise reforms, particularly in SAIC and Dongfeng [4]. Industry Updates - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the third week of November were 71,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 7% but an increase of 7% compared to the previous month [4]. - Recent increases in traditional and new energy raw material price indices were noted, with traditional car raw material prices rising by 0.9% week-on-week and 0.2% month-on-month, while new energy vehicle raw material prices increased by 1.6% week-on-week and 1.4% month-on-month [4]. - The total transaction value of the automotive industry for the week was 402.936 billion yuan, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.29% [4]. Market Situation - The automotive industry index closed at 7545.76 points, with a weekly increase of 3.24%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.64% [9]. - A total of 252 stocks in the industry rose, while 16 fell, with the largest gainers being Tianpu Co., Chaojie Co., and Fusa Technology, which increased by 35.3%, 28.4%, and 27.3% respectively [13]. - The report identifies key events, including the launch of the Leap Lafa5, which aims to set a new benchmark in the 100,000 yuan pure electric sedan market [5][27]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies involved in intelligent trends like Huawei's HarmonyOS [4]. - It suggests monitoring state-owned enterprise consolidations, particularly in SAIC, Dongfeng, and Changan [4]. - The report highlights component manufacturers with strong growth potential and robotics layouts, recommending Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, New Spring, Fuda, Shuanghuan, and Yinlun [4]. Key Events - The report notes significant partnerships and product launches, including BYD's collaboration with Midea to create a smart living paradigm and Changan's plans to release its first vehicle-mounted robot in Q1 next year [20][21]. - The report also mentions the launch of the new electric sedan Lafa5 by Leap, which targets the global market with competitive pricing and features [5][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company is set to enhance its waterproof segment through the acquisition of Tangshan and Suzhou Yuanda Hongyu, with a total investment of approximately 41.8 million yuan for 80% equity in each entity [7] - The acquisition is deemed reasonably valued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.9 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 4.9 for Tangshan Yuanda Hongyu [7] - The merger is expected to strengthen the company's regional competitiveness and is anticipated to release significant earnings elasticity by 2026 as market demand recovers [7] - The company has been actively expanding through both external and internal mergers, with ongoing projects in various locations including Tanzania and Uzbekistan [7] - Price increases for gypsum boards are expected to improve profitability, indicating a potential end to price wars in the industry [7] - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.516 billion, 4.030 billion, and 4.802 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE valuations of 12, 11, and 9 times [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 25,997 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.7% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 3,516 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.6% year-on-year [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 2.07 yuan [6] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to be 28.1% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.7% [6]

2025 年 11 月 30 日 唐猛 A0230523080003 tanqmeng@swsresearch.com 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究成功费 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 商业不动产 REITS 推行，盘活 并化解风险 -申万宏源建筑周报（20251124-20251128） 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW建筑装饰指数+2.81%，沪深 300 指 O 数+1.64%，相对收益为+1.17pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为生态 园林 (+9.04%)、基建民企 (+7.21%)、设计咨询 (+6.23%)，对应行 业内三个公司：国晟科技（+57.69%）、汇通集团（+20.00%）、招标股 份 (+24.71%); 年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别是基建民企 (+71.33%)、生态园林 (+53.39%)、装饰 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in China is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities likely to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the elevation of housing policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which may lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [5]. Industry Data Summary - **New Housing Transactions**: In the week of November 22-28, 2025, 34 key cities saw a total new housing transaction of 2.52 million square meters, a decrease of 1.7% week-on-week. Year-on-year, new housing transactions in November dropped by 35% [6][9]. - **Second-Hand Housing Transactions**: In the same week, 13 cities recorded a total of 1.16 million square meters in second-hand housing transactions, an increase of 4.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date, second-hand housing transactions have increased by 0.7% [14]. - **Inventory Levels**: As of November 28, 2025, the total available residential area in 15 cities was 89.846 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4%. The average months of inventory depletion was 23.3 months, a slight decrease [25]. Policy and News Tracking - **REITs Development**: The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of public REITs to include hotels and commercial offices. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated a pilot for commercial real estate REITs [34][36]. - **Local Housing Policies**: Qingdao has introduced housing subsidies for talent, offering up to 300,000 yuan for doctoral graduates. Fuzhou plans to provide subsidies for families with multiple children, while Beijing's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the housing supply system [34][35]. - **Land Market Activity**: In Shanghai, nine land parcels were sold for a total of 17.33 billion yuan, while Wuhan's land sales totaled approximately 3.97 billion yuan [34][39]. Company Dynamics - **New City Holdings**: Successfully issued private REITs with a scale of 616 million yuan, backed by the Wuyue Plaza asset [5]. - **Vanke**: Engaged in discussions regarding the extension of a bond due on December 15, 2025, with a remaining balance of 2 billion yuan [5][41]. - **China Jinmao**: Announced plans to sell 100% equity in Jinmao (Sanya) Tourism Co., Ltd. for 2.27 billion yuan [5][43].

行 业 及 产 业 建筑装饰 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 30 日 商业不动产 REITS 推行，盘活存量 并化解风险 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20251124-20251128） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+2.81%，沪深 300 指 数+1.64%，相对收益为+1.17pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为生态 园林（+9.04%）、基建民企（+7.21%）、设计咨询（+6.23%），对应行 业内三个公司：国晟科技（+57.69%）、汇通 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance compared to the overall market [61]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of AI Infrastructure (AI Infra) as a foundational system for AI workloads, which includes computing power, storage, and networking [5][11]. - The AI Infra market in China is projected to grow significantly, reaching CNY 3.45 billion in 2024 and CNY 6.73 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 95.1% [7][10]. - Key players in the AI Infra space include both domestic and international companies, with a focus on data layer software and models [4][36]. Summary by Sections AI Infra Overview - AI Infra is defined as the hardware and software systems designed to support AI workloads, aiming for efficient and large-scale AI model training and inference [5][11]. - The infrastructure consists of several layers, including computing, storage, and networking, with a focus on optimizing AI model performance [8][11]. Market Growth and Trends - The AI Infra market is expected to see rapid growth, with a significant increase in the number of AI applications anticipated in 2024 [29][32]. - The demand for private deployment and data integration solutions is rising, particularly in sectors with stringent data security requirements [29][36]. Key Players and Technologies - Major players in the AI Infra market include Alibaba Cloud, Huawei Cloud, and various startups focusing on Machine as a Service (MaaS) [12][13]. - Technologies such as virtualization and containerization are central to the computing management layer, enhancing resource utilization and efficiency [12][22]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment targets across different categories, including AIGC applications, digital economy leaders, and data infrastructure [52][53]. - Companies like Snowflake and MongoDB are highlighted as international benchmarks for data layer software, with strong revenue growth trends [36][38]. Future Outlook - AI infrastructure providers are expected to maintain high growth potential due to their critical role in supporting AI applications and the increasing integration of AI into traditional industries [51].

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound after a significant decline, but the adjustment in technology growth stocks has only partially addressed the value-for-money issue, with the adjustment amplitude over half but time still insufficient [2][4][5] - Historical experience suggests that when technology adjustments reach near the bull-bear boundary, it indicates a mid-term bottom area, but there may be a scenario of "amplitude in place, time insufficient" [2][4][5] - The current adjustment in technology growth stocks has passed the halfway mark, but the time required for recovery is more challenging, relying on industry catalysts and performance verification to digest valuations [2][4][5] Group 2 - The spring market is positioned as a potential rebound within a high-level consolidation phase, with two possible scenarios: a rebound in the high-level consolidation phase or a transition from adjustment to a bottom consolidation phase [5][6] - The spring market may see effective rebounds in offensive assets (technology and cyclical stocks), but upward breakthroughs are difficult to achieve, limiting the upper bound of the spring market [6][7] - The cyclical sector is expected to be the foundational asset for the spring market, with a focus on basic chemicals and industrial technology, while technology stocks may also see a general rebound due to improved short-term value-for-money [7][8] Group 3 - The "bull market two-stage theory" is a typical feature of the A-share bull market cycle, with historical examples indicating that structural bull markets are often followed by comprehensive bull markets after consolidation phases [5][6] - The current market is in a structural bull high position, with expectations for a comprehensive bull market to potentially begin in 2026 due to cyclical improvements in fundamentals and shifts in asset allocation towards equities [5][6] - The report highlights the importance of waiting for industry catalysts and performance verification to restore long-term value-for-money to historical medians, which may signal the restart of an upward trend [2][4][5]