Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas risk assets have recovered, and A-shares opened lower and closed higher. The gold price reached a new high of $4,132 due to uncertainties such as Trump's tariff threats, the US government shutdown, and interest rate cut expectations. A-shares showed resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding over 2% after touching 3,800 points. In the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. China's September export and import data were better than expected, and the export structure continued to diversify [2][3]. - Precious metals are in a strong upward phase. Silver prices have reached new highs, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, Fed interest rate cut expectations, and central bank gold - buying. If the shortage of London silver persists, silver prices are expected to continue to soar [4]. - Copper prices rebounded. Although there are uncertainties in Sino - US trade, China's September import data was strong, and the Fed's dovish stance on interest rate cuts is expected to support copper prices in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices were adjusted. The market was mainly influenced by news, and the aluminum price is expected to remain in a favorable shock range considering the supply - demand fundamentals [8]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply, rigid demand, and a supply - demand balance leaning towards surplus [10]. - Zinc prices stabilized and oscillated. Sino - US tariff friction cooled down, and the Fed's hint of interest rate cuts supported zinc prices, but the increase in domestic social inventory limited the upward space [11]. - Lead prices faced increasing downward pressure. With the approaching delivery and the resumption of production in refineries, supply is expected to increase while demand improvement is limited [12]. - Tin prices adjusted at a high level. Supply disturbances limited the downward space, and the market was waiting for further developments in Sino - US tariff friction [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices oscillated within a range. Supply was slightly in surplus, and demand showed mixed trends, resulting in short - term price oscillations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated weakly. Although the power and energy storage markets were strong, supply continued to hit new highs, and with the cooling of resource disturbances, prices may decline [17]. - Nickel prices may rebound. Sino - US trade disturbances cooled down, and although the supply of nickel ore was expected to be loose, the current price was at the lower end of the range [19]. - The prices of soda ash and glass oscillated at a low level. After the holiday, inventory increased, and downstream purchasing was weak, so the market sentiment was low [20][21]. - Steel prices oscillated weakly. Terminal demand was weak, and the supply pressure increased, so the futures prices of steel showed a weak trend [22]. - Iron ore prices oscillated. The supply was stable, and the arrival of goods increased, while the demand from steel mills remained high, so the price was expected to oscillate [23][24]. - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal oscillated weakly. Brazil's soybean sowing progress was fast, and domestic soybean inventory increased after the holiday, resulting in sufficient supply in the short term [25][26]. - Palm oil prices adjusted with wide - range oscillations. Malaysia's palm oil production and demand both increased in October, and although there were some supporting factors, the weakening of oil prices and cautious market sentiment led to price oscillations [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - This section provides the closing prices, changes, change percentages, trading volumes, and positions of various metal futures contracts on October 13, including copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and agricultural products such as soybean and rapeseed meal [29]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the prices, inventory changes, and other data of SHFE copper and LME copper from October 10 to 13, including spot prices, warehouse receipts, inventory, and price spreads [30]. - For nickel, it presents the price changes, inventory, and other information of SHFE nickel and LME nickel from October 10 to 13 [30]. - For other metals such as zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean and rapeseed meal, it also provides relevant price, inventory, and spread data from different periods [33][34][35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, there is a risk of tariff escalation between China and the US, and global market risk - aversion drags down the sentiment of the domestic industrial products market. However, China's economic long - term trend of steady improvement remains unchanged, with the 9 - month manufacturing PMI approaching the boom - bust line, a significant rebound in industrial enterprise profit growth, and continuous support from expansionary fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The photovoltaic supply - side reform will be further deepened [3][49]. - On the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang has steadily risen to 70%, the output in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season is higher than the same period in previous years, and the new capacity investment in Gansu and Inner Mongolia has slowed down. The supply side shows a steady recovery, and social inventory fluctuates at a high level [3][49]. - On the demand side, polysilicon production is increasing, and the production plan for October is still rising month - on - month. Silicon wafer manufacturers' production plans are waiting for the implementation of the component export tax - rebate policy. Battery prices are rising, but new orders are shrinking. Component price increases are stagnant due to the slowdown in photovoltaic installations. Some leading enterprises have pre - arranged for the recycling of retired crystalline silicon components. In traditional industries, the operating rate of silicone has declined due to the incomplete recovery of terminal demand, and the aluminum alloy output has slightly increased due to the rebound in processing fees. Overall, the supply - demand structure of industrial silicon will reach a new balance in October, and the futures price is expected to remain stable and fluctuate [3][49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 September Industrial Silicon Market Review - **Industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a range**: In September 2025, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated between 8215 - 9325 yuan/ton, with the price center remaining flat compared to the previous month. The improvement in industrial enterprise profit growth, the implementation of anti - involution policies, and the improvement in the production profit of photovoltaic upstream and mid - stream enterprises supported the price, but the decline in polysilicon prices dragged down market sentiment. By the end of September, the national furnace - opening number increased to 311, with a month - on - month increase of 23. From the demand side, polysilicon enterprises' production cuts were less than expected, silicon wafer price support was limited, photovoltaic battery supply - demand was in a tight balance, and component price increases were stagnant. As of September 30, the main 2511 contract closed at 8640 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.98% [8]. - **The spot market fluctuated**: In September, the average production cost of industrial silicon was 9095.49 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The social inventory was high, and the traditional industries' demand was weak. The anti - involution policy was expected to suppress the medium - term demand for industrial silicon. By the end of September, the prices of mainstream grades such as 553, 441, 421, and 3303 showed different degrees of increase. It is expected that in October, the prices of domestic mainstream grades will mainly fluctuate upwards [9][10][12]. Macroeconomic Analysis - In September, the central bank emphasized moderately loose monetary policy, strengthened counter - cyclical adjustment, and created a suitable monetary and financial environment for economic recovery. The RMB exchange rate was basically stable, and the financial market operated smoothly. China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, and the industrial enterprise profit in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year. The equipment manufacturing industry played a significant role in driving profit growth, and some traditional industries turned losses into profits. China's economic long - term trend of steady improvement remained unchanged [14][16]. Fundamental Analysis - **Northern production slowly recovered, and the capacity in Sichuan and Yunnan was strongly released during the wet season**: In September, the operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang rose to about 70%, and the capacity in the southwest was strongly released due to the decline in electricity prices during the wet season. The new production increments in Inner Mongolia and Gansu were limited. The national industrial silicon output in September was 42.1 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. As of September 26, the national furnace - opening rate rose to 39.1%. Overall, the supply side was relatively loose [18][19][20]. - **Exports maintained stable growth in August**: From January to August, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 49.1 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 18%. The export volume in August was 7.66 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 18%. The export destinations were mainly in Southeast Asia. It is expected that the export volume in October will recover to about 8 tons [24]. - **The social inventory fluctuated at a high level in September**: As of September 30, the national industrial silicon social inventory rose to 54.5 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise. It is expected that the social inventory will slightly increase in October [29]. - **Polysilicon production cuts were less than expected, and silicon enterprises' production profit turned losses into profits**: In September, the polysilicon output was 12.5 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. The cumulative output from January to September was 81.13 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 33.2%. The ex - factory price of polysilicon dense material was 51 yuan/kg. In October, the production is expected to increase by 0.3 tons month - on - month. For silicon wafers, the production plan is waiting for the component export tax - rebate policy. For batteries, the price increased, but new orders decreased. For components, the price increase was limited. The recycling of retired photovoltaic components has broad prospects [32]. - **The operating rate of silicone declined, and the DMC spot price slightly increased**: In September, the output of silicone DMC was 20.88 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%. The average operating rate of silicone monomer enterprises dropped to 72.84%. The DMC spot price rose to 11050 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 13.3%. It is expected that the DMC price will slightly increase in October [35]. - **The aluminum alloy output slightly increased, and the aluminum rod processing fee stabilized and rebounded**: From January to August, the aluminum alloy output was 1232.4 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. The output in August was 163.5 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The average processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods in August was 206 yuan/ton. It is expected that the aluminum alloy output will slightly decline in October [36]. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, China's economic long - term trend of steady improvement remains unchanged. On the supply side, the supply is steadily recovering, and social inventory fluctuates at a high level. On the demand side, the demand structure is being adjusted, and the overall supply - demand will reach a new balance. It is expected that the industrial silicon futures price will remain stable and fluctuate in October, and attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution policies [49][51].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Indonesian government plans to enforce the B50 biodiesel program in the second half of 2026, which will generate an additional demand for 530,000 tons of crude palm oil. However, the progress of the US biodiesel policy remains uncertain due to the government shutdown [4]. - The September MPOB report showed an increase in the ending inventory to 2.36 million tons, which was bearish for the market. But the production in the producing areas will enter the off - season, leading to a gradual contraction in supply. In India, the palm oil imports decreased in September due to more soybean oil imports. In China, the palm oil trading was sluggish, with weekly inventory decreasing and expected to be stable in the future. The domestic soybean oil inventory is at a five - year high, while the import of rapeseed products is expected to decrease [4]. - The Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, reducing the market's expectation of easing at the APEC meeting. The US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level, and the oil price is weakening. The Malaysian palm oil production is entering the off - season, and there is support from the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the September MPOB report showed lower - than - expected consumption, increasing the ending inventory and limiting price increases. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate widely in October with strong support at the bottom [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1:油脂市场行情回顾 - Since September, the oil and fat sector has been oscillating. In the domestic market at the end of September, the palm oil 01 contract fell 88 to 9228 yuan/ton (-0.94%), the soybean oil 01 contract fell 218 to 8140 yuan/ton (-2.61%), and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 255 to 10044 yuan/ton (+2.60%). In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 55 to 4351 ringgit/ton (-1.25%), the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.66 to 49.44 cents/pound (-5.11%), and the ICE rapeseed active contract fell 23.6 to 603.9 Canadian dollars/ton (-3.76%). In the spot market, the palm oil in Guangzhou fell 260 to 9060 yuan/ton (-2.79%), the first - grade soybean oil in Shandong fell 170 to 8300 yuan/ton (-2.01%), and the imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu rose 350 to 10250 yuan/ton (+3.54%) [9]. 3.2:基本面分析 3.2.1: MPOB Report - In August 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.855 million tons (+2.35% month - on - month), exports were 1.3247 million tons (-0.29% month - on - month), imports were 49,000 tons (-19.66% month - on - month), and the ending inventory increased to 2.2025 million tons (+4.18% month - on - month). The report was slightly bearish [19]. 3.2.2: Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From September 1 - 30, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month according to SPPOMA, and by 2.35% according to MPOA, with an estimated total production of 1.81 million tons in September. Different institutions' data on September exports varied, with ITS showing a 9.6% increase, AmSpec showing a 7.3% increase, and SGS showing a 13.41% decrease compared to the previous month [22][23]. 3.2.3: Indonesian Situation - In July 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.606 million tons, exports were 3.537 million tons, domestic consumption was 2.034 million tons, and the inventory was 2.568 million tons. Compared with the previous year and the five - year average, there were significant changes in production, exports, and consumption [29]. 3.2.4: Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - In August 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.62 million tons. Among them, palm oil imports were 991,000 tons, soybean oil imports were 368,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 257,000 tons. There were changes compared with the previous month and the previous year [31][32]. 3.2.5: Chinese Oil and Fat Imports - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, rapeseed oil imports were 138,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 20,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January to August also showed different trends compared with the previous year [36]. 3.2.6: Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3794 million tons, with soybean oil inventory at 1.2487 million tons, palm oil inventory at 552,200 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory at 578,500 tons. There were changes compared with the previous week and the previous year [41]. 3.3:总结与后市展望 - The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy will generate additional demand for palm oil, but the US biodiesel policy has uncertainties. The September MPOB report was bearish, but the production will enter the off - season. In India, palm oil imports decreased, and in China, the palm oil inventory is expected to be stable. The Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, and the US dollar index and oil price are weak. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate widely in October with strong support at the bottom [44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - International aspect: Sino-US trade conflict has escalated again, and China has not purchased US soybeans. There are concerns about soybean procurement during the APEC meeting at the end of the month. China's large - scale procurement from Argentina has narrowed the supply gap from November to January. The US government shutdown has led to a suspension of data release, and the market expects a slight reduction in the US soybean yield per acre in the October USDA report. Brazil's continuous precipitation is conducive to sowing [3][76]. - Domestic aspect: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no soybean procurement agreement is reached between China and the US, policy adjustments will be concerned. After the holiday, the oil - mill crushing rate is expected to gradually recover, and the domestic supply peak may occur in October, with sufficient current spot supply [3][76]. - Outlook: Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing. The US soybean yield may be adjusted downwards, but it is under pressure due to harvesting and weak export demand. There are still procurement gaps from November to January in China. Pay attention to the Sino - US negotiation during the APEC meeting and policy - end soybean release. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose, with spot prices under pressure. The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [3][77]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since September, soybean meal has shown a weakening trend. By the end of September, the 01 - contract of soybean meal, South China's spot price, and the CBOT November - contract of US soybeans all declined. In the first half of August, the price fluctuated slightly due to sufficient domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operation rates, and concerns about future supply. In the second half of September, it declined due to Sino - US trade sentiment and China's large - scale procurement from Argentina [9]. 2. International Aspect 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the USDA September report, the global soybean production in 2025/2026 is 425.88 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. The global crushing demand is 366.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.08 million tons. The ending inventory is 123.99 million tons, a decrease of 910,000 tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 29.25% [15]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The September USDA report is slightly bearish. In 2025/2026, the US soybean planting area increased by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, the yield per acre decreased slightly to 53.5 bushels/acre, and the production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The crushing demand increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the export demand decreased by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory increased slightly to 300 million bushels [22]. 2.3 US Soybean Production Area Weather - As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, the good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79%. Due to the government shutdown, the weekly crop growth report was suspended. As of October 5, the harvest progress was estimated to be 39%. Future precipitation is generally conducive to harvesting [28]. 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In August 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels, higher than expected. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative crushing volume increased by 5.81% year - on - year. As of September 26, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.84 dollars/bushel [30]. 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of September 18, 2025, the US soybean net export sales in the current market year were 724,000 tons. The cumulative export sales in the 2025/2026 season were 9.42 million tons, and China has not purchased new - crop US soybeans [31]. 2.6 Brazil's Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production remains at 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, ending inventory is 37.26 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 21.38%. In August 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 9.34 million tons. As of early October, the sowing progress was 8.2% on average, and future precipitation is conducive to sowing [36][40][43]. 2.7 Argentina's Soybean Situation - In the 2025/2026 season, Argentina's soybean production remains at 48.5 million tons, export demand increases by 200,000 tons to 6 million tons, crushing demand decreases by 600,000 tons to 42.4 million tons, ending inventory is 23.85 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 42.66%. After Argentina suspended the soybean export tax in September, China purchased nearly 2.3 million tons [51][54]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Imported Soybeans and Others - In August 2025, China imported 12.28 million tons of soybeans. As of September 23, the procurement progress of November, December, and January shipments was 36%, 2.9%, and 0% respectively. The estimated arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million, 9 million, and 8.5 million tons respectively [57]. 3.2 Domestic Oil - Mill Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the main oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 4.1017 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 172,160 tons, and the daily提货量 was 189,330 tons [62][63]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 32.9%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound and concentrated feed was 14.3% [66]. 4. Summary and Outlook - International: Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, and China has not purchased US soybeans. The supply gap from November to January has narrowed. Pay attention to policy and international procurement. The US soybean harvest is expected to progress smoothly, but there are concerns about exports. Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing [76]. - Domestic: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no procurement agreement is reached, pay attention to policy adjustments. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose [76]. - Outlook: The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overall, influenced by repeated news and with the alumina supply under pressure and the electrolytic aluminum consumption in the peak season, the aluminum price shows a volatile and positive trend [2][3][59] - There are risks such as Fed policy changes and a significant weakening of consumption [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Alumina futures: In September, it continuously declined, reaching a monthly high of 3048 yuan/ton and a low of 2862 yuan/ton, and closed at 2904 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 4.35% [9] - Shanghai aluminum futures: In September, it first rose and then fell, reaching a high of 21130 yuan/ton and closing at 20625 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [9] - LME aluminum: In September, it also first rose and then fell, with a high of 2720 US dollars/ton, and the performance was slightly weaker than that of Shanghai aluminum [9] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and there are differences within the Fed on further interest rate cuts [12] - US economic data: In August, PPI was negative for the first time in four months, CPI increased moderately, ADP employment decreased, GDP growth rate increased, manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined, retail sales increased, and the real estate market was weak [12][13] - European economic data: In the second quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rate declined slightly, the ZEW economic sentiment index rebounded slightly, the consumer confidence index improved, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate increased, and the European Central Bank's attitude towards interest rate cuts was cautious [14] Domestic - In August, industrial added value, service industry production index, and social consumer goods retail sales increased, while fixed - asset investment increased slightly. Import and export growth rates declined, CPI was negative, and PPI ended its continuous decline [15][16] - It is expected that stable - growth policies will be introduced in the fourth quarter [19] 3. Alumina Market Analysis Bauxite - Domestic bauxite: In September, the overall domestic mine opening rate was low, and the market price fluctuated slightly [21] - Imported bauxite: In August, imports decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The long - term order price in the fourth quarter may decline, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Guinea [22] - Overall, the price of bauxite may be slightly weaker [22] Alumina Supply - Production: In August, the output increased year - on - year, and it is expected that the supply will still be slightly excessive in September. Some production capacity may decrease in October [23][25] - Import and export: In August, it maintained a net export pattern, and imports are expected to increase in October [25] Alumina Inventory and Spot - Inventory: By the end of September, the exchange inventory increased significantly for the second consecutive month [26] - Spot premium: In September, the alumina spot premium was high at first and then low, and the high premium led to high enthusiasm for spot delivery [26] Alumina Cost and Profit - In August, the average cost of the alumina industry decreased slightly, mainly due to the decrease in the cost of imported ores [27] Alumina Outlook - The supply pressure is large, the cost support is weakened, but some production capacity is in the theoretical loss stage. If there is concentrated production reduction and the consumption in the northwest region increases during the winter storage period, the price may stop falling [3][28][59] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Domestic production: In August, the output increased year - on - year. In September, the production capacity increased slightly, and it is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in China and the world (excluding China) will be 362.5 million tons and 237 million tons respectively [32] - Import and export: In August, imports increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, exports increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and net imports increased year - on - year. It is expected that imports will continue to decrease slightly [34] Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - By the end of September, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased, the aluminum rod inventory decreased, the social inventory decreased but the decline was weaker than in previous years, the SHFE inventory was flat, and the LME inventory increased [35] Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In September, the spot premium was stable at a discount of 10 - 20 yuan/ton at the beginning and end of the month, and the LME premium was high at first and then low [36] Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In September, the average cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry decreased, and the profit increased [37] 5. Consumption Analysis Aluminum Processing - In September, the overall performance of aluminum processing improved month - on - month, but was still weaker than the traditional peak season year - on - year [51] Domestic Terminal Consumption - Real estate: The new construction scale is at a low level, and the completion area continues to decline [52] - New energy vehicles: In August, retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and exports increased year - on - year. It is expected to continue to drive aluminum consumption [53] - Power: From January to August, the investment in power grid construction increased year - on - year, and the order volume in the fourth quarter and next year is guaranteed [53] - Photovoltaic: In August, the new installed capacity decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, but component exports increased. It is expected that exports will boost demand [54] Aluminum Product Exports - In August, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. Although affected by US tariffs, it still showed strong resilience [55][56] 6. Market Outlook - Macro: The US economic situation gives room for the Fed to cut interest rates, but the tariff policy is volatile. There are still policy expectations in the domestic fourth quarter [59] - Alumina: The supply pressure is large, the cost support is weakened, but there may be a stop - falling opportunity when the supply and demand are improved [59] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply increase pressure is not large, the consumption is in the peak season, and the price has support, but it is restricted by macro fluctuations and other factors [60]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Views - In the short term, due to factors such as the Fed's independence crisis, US government shutdown, monetary easing expectations, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold - buying, and investment inflows into gold and silver ETFs, precious metal prices have risen strongly and hit new highs. However, long - position funds are crowded, and speculative funds may take profits. There is a risk of short - term adjustment, but Sino - US tariff friction will limit the adjustment space, and prices may adjust through high - level oscillations [3][49]. - In the long term, the safe - haven and monetary attributes of precious metals are strengthening, and the logic for long - term price increases remains solid. Precious metal prices are still in a long - term upward trend and will hit new highs in the future [3][49]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metal Market Review - In September 2025, precious metal prices continued to rise strongly. COMEX gold futures broke through the previous high of $3509.9 per ounce in September, and after the Fed's rate cut, prices hit new highs, with a 10.57% increase in September and breaking through $4000 in early October. COMEX silver futures showed stronger performance, with a 14.94% monthly increase in September and approaching the historical high of $50 per ounce on October 9 [8]. - Domestic precious metal prices were slightly stronger than overseas. Shanghai gold futures rose 11.37% in September, and Shanghai silver futures rose 16.32% and hit a historical high of 11,490 yuan per kilogram on October 9 [8]. 2. Analysis of Factors Affecting Precious Metal Prices 2.1 US Government Shutdown Intensifies Dollar Credit Crisis - The US government shut down again on September 30 due to a dispute between the two parties over the extension of medical insurance subsidies. The shutdown may last more than 15 days, with about 750,000 government employees on unpaid leave. This exposes political struggles and a trust - system collapse, intensifying the US government's and the dollar's credit crises, and strengthening the safe - haven and monetary attributes of precious metals [15][16]. 2.2 Trade Tensions Remain High and Tariff Frictions Escalate Again - The US has frequently imposed tariffs on trading partners. It imposed a 15% tariff on EU automobiles and parts from August 1, and announced new high - tariff policies on multiple products from October 1. On October 10, it was announced that a 100% tariff would be imposed on all Chinese imports from November 1, which is a retaliation against China's new rare - earth export controls and a way to divert domestic contradictions [17][18]. 2.3 The US Economy Remains Resilient and Rate Cuts Will Continue - Except for employment data, the US economy shows relative resilience. The second - quarter GDP growth was 3.8%, and inflation data was in line with expectations. The market's previous pricing of a US economic recession may be revised, and the dollar index may stabilize and rebound in the short term. The Fed officials have different views on monetary policy, but the market generally expects rate cuts in October and December [19][20]. 3. Analysis of Market Structure and Capital Flows 3.1 Changes in the Gold - Silver Ratio - In September, silver prices were stronger than gold prices, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio dropped from 88.6 to around 81.7, and the Shanghai gold - silver ratio dropped from 85 to around 79. Although silver prices have risen significantly in the past two months, they are still relatively low compared to gold, and the ratio may continue to decline [23]. 3.2 Changes in Futures - Spot and Domestic - Overseas Price Spreads - Domestic precious metal prices are closely linked to overseas prices, and there is usually a premium in the domestic market. In September, the spread between Shanghai gold futures and COMEX gold futures was negative, and the spread between Shanghai silver futures and COMEX silver futures narrowed, with a rare negative spread on October 9, indicating a tight overseas silver spot market [25]. 3.3 Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends - Since 2010, global central banks have been net buyers of gold. In 2024, they bought over 1000 tons of gold. In the second quarter of 2025, central bank purchases slowed down, with a net purchase of 166 tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease. China's central bank increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) in September, the 11th consecutive month of increase [30][31]. 3.4 Changes in Precious Metal Inventories - Since December last year, COMEX gold inventories have increased significantly, and as of October 8, 2025, they were about 1247 tons, a 2.93% month - on - month and 135% year - on - year increase. COMEX silver inventories also increased, and as of October 8, 2025, they were about 16,428 tons, a 1.89% month - on - month and 72% year - on - year increase. The total silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold and Futures Exchanges decreased by 116 tons in September [32][34]. 3.5 Analysis of Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - In recent months, the holdings of the world's largest gold and silver ETFs have increased slightly. As of October 9, the SPDR gold ETF held 1014 tons of gold, and the iShares silver ETF held 15,415 tons of silver. Investment funds are no longer the main driver of precious metal prices, but geopolitical and macro - economic uncertainties will strengthen the safe - haven and wealth - preservation attributes of gold [41][42]. 3.6 Changes in CFTC Positions - As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold futures were 266,749 contracts, and those of COMEX silver futures were 52,276 contracts. The inflow of speculative funds was the direct factor driving the precious metal price increase in September [45]. 4. Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - In the short term, beware of adjustment risks, and prices may adjust through high - level oscillations. In the long term, the logic for precious metal price increases remains solid, and prices will hit new highs [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the demand for iron ore from steel mills was strong, with the daily average hot metal production remaining above 2.4 million tons. However, in October, the demand for iron ore will face challenges, and the domestic hot metal production may slightly decline from the current high level of 2.4 million tons per day [3]. - In September, the overseas shipment of iron ore decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level in recent years. In October, the supply of imported ore will be mainly stable, with both shipments and arrivals decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year [3]. - In the next month, macro factors may dominate the market trend. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar, there is support from the macro - side. The supply and demand drivers are not strong, so it is expected that iron ore will show a volatile trend, with the price range of 700 - 890 yuan/ton [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In September, iron ore showed a high - level volatile and pre - holiday weakening trend. The global weekly average shipment volume increased by 2% month - on - month, and the inventory of 45 ports decreased to 138 million tons. The hot metal production remained at a high level of 2.4 million tons per day, but the steel mill profitability rate decreased from 62.2% to 58%. By the end of September, the 62% Platts index fell 0.1% to $103.45/ton, and the PB powder spot price fell 1 yuan to 778 yuan/wet ton [8]. - Looking forward to October, the terminal demand pressure remains, the inventory pressure of finished products increases, the space for further increase in blast furnace production is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore increases [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Demand Adjusts at a High Level and Its Resilience Faces Challenges - In September, the demand from steel mills was strong, but the terminal was weak. The daily average hot metal production of steel mills remained above 2.4 million tons, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 56.71% at the beginning of October, 19 percentage points higher than the same period last year. However, the terminal steel demand continued to weaken. In October, the demand for iron ore will face challenges, and the domestic hot metal production may slightly decline [12]. - Overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates. The crude steel production of major iron ore - importing countries has been poor. In August 2025, the global crude steel production of 70 countries/regions increased by 0.3% year - on - year [13]. 2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments Remain at a High Level - From January to August, China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year. In September, the overseas shipments decreased month - on - month but were at a high level in recent years. The weekly average shipment from Brazil was 6.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.35 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.63 million tons; the weekly average shipment from Australia was 15.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4 million tons. In October, the supply of imported ore will be mainly stable [17][18]. 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - By the beginning of October, the total iron ore inventory of 45 ports was 140.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10.81 million tons. In the fourth quarter, the port inventory may continue to accumulate [21]. 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory - In September, steel mills actively replenished inventory, and the in - plant inventory increased significantly. By the beginning of October, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 100.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.96 million tons. After the National Day holiday, the inventory decreased rapidly [34]. 2.5 Domestic Mine Production - From January to August, the domestic iron ore production was weakly stable with regional differentiation. The national domestic ore production decreased by 1.839 million tons year - on - year. In September, the domestic mine production was still in a tight supply pattern, and the annual production is expected to decrease by 500,000 - 1 million tons [35][38]. 2.6 Freight Rates - In September, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was strong, but it has weakened since October. As of October 9, the BDI index was 1923 points, a month - on - month decrease of 8.9%. The shipping market sentiment fluctuated with the change of Chinese steel mills' replenishment [39]. 3. Market Outlook - In the next month, macro factors may dominate the market trend. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation is increasing, and the weakening of the US dollar supports commodity prices. The supply and demand drivers are not strong, and it is expected that iron ore will show a volatile trend, with the price range of 700 - 890 yuan/ton [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Report's Core View - In the future month, steel supply pressure remains high, demand growth is limited, and changes in inventory data should be closely monitored. Policy-wise, the Fourth Plenary Session in October may lead to policy support. Fundamentally, the weak demand during the peak season persists, and the weak reality is hard to change. Supply shows a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. If inventory pressure continues to rise, a new round of production cuts may occur. Overall, steel supply outstrips demand, policy support is limited, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference range for rebar is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. Short-term attention should be paid to Sino-US tariff policy interference [3][50]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, steel futures fluctuated repeatedly and gradually weakened with a lower center of gravity, mainly influenced by the game between expectations and reality. In the first ten days, rebar was weak while hot-rolled coils were strong. Rebar futures fell below 3,100 yuan/ton, and hot-rolled coils rose from 3,282 yuan/ton to over 3,350 yuan/ton. The demand improvement for rebar during the peak season was limited, while the military parade production restrictions led to reduced production in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, causing the supply of hot-rolled coils to shrink and the spread between coils and rebar to widen. In the middle ten days, steel prices rebounded due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment driving up raw material prices and strengthening cost support. In the last ten days, market sentiment weakened. On one hand, supply recovered and inventory pressure emerged; on the other hand, building materials were dragged down by the sluggish real estate market, with weak demand during the peak season. Moreover, after the inventory replenishment cycle ended, raw material prices declined and were transmitted to the finished product end, leading to an adjustment in steel prices. Overall, in September, the demand drive in the steel market was limited, and futures prices fluctuated with supply-side disturbances. In October, the pattern of weak reality and strong expectations remained unchanged, but market expectations shifted from the demand side to macro policies [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply Pressure Persists - In September, steel supply showed a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. Long-process steel mills were in good profit conditions, with strong willingness to start blast furnaces, and molten iron production remained at a high level. At the beginning of October, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 56.71%, a 19-percentage-point increase compared to the same period last year, and the daily average molten iron production of steel mills remained above 2.4 million tons. At the electric furnace end, due to the rising price of scrap steel, the utilization rate of short-process production capacity decreased month-on-month, and the daily consumption of scrap steel dropped to 534,000 tons, increasing the production cut pressure. Statistical data showed that from January to August, the crude steel production decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, and the pig iron production decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. The monthly crude steel production continued to decline while the pig iron production turned positive, reflecting a shift in iron element demand towards iron ore. The supply structure was significantly differentiated. Long-process steel mills maintained production by converting to billet production, and the supply contradiction of flat products began to emerge, with the inventory of hot-rolled coils increasing significantly year-on-year. For rebar, due to the production cuts at electric furnaces, the supply-demand contradiction was slightly alleviated. Overall, in October, the supply side featured rigid production in blast furnaces and elastic adjustment in electric furnaces. If the seasonal recovery of terminal demand falls short of expectations, a new round of production cuts may occur [14]. 2.2 High Steel Inventory Pressure - In September, steel inventory rebounded significantly, and industrial contradictions accumulated faster. As of October 8, the total inventory of the five major steel products reached 16.01 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared to the beginning of the previous month. Among them, the inventory of rebar and wire rod increased by 430,000 tons, and the inventory of hot-rolled coils increased by 380,000 tons. The inventory increase was mainly concentrated in the social inventory link. The social inventory of rebar increased by 50% year-on-year, and the inventory of hot-rolled coils reached a historical high, indicating weak terminal demand. The inventory in steel mills was at a low level, and the pressure was relatively controllable. Although the marginal improvement in demand during the peak season may drive inventory reduction, given the high supply from steel mills and the lack of substantial improvement in terminal demand, the inventory reduction intensity may be limited [22]. 2.3 Weak Demand During Peak Season - In September, steel demand was weak during the peak season. Affected by the real estate market, the demand for building materials was weak. In August, the land transaction area in 100 large and medium-sized cities was 50.82 million square meters, a 14% year-on-year decrease, and the commercial housing sales decreased by 11% year-on-year, with the decline in new construction expanding to 19.8%. A survey by Baonian Construction showed that at the end of September, the fund availability rate of construction sites was only 59.54%, and the capital sources of real estate enterprises continued to decline. Currently, the real estate industry is still in a difficult bottoming-out stage. The manufacturing industry maintained resilience, with good growth in automobile and home appliance production, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased slightly year-on-year. In October, as the weather cools down, the construction site start-up rate is expected to increase, but the seasonal improvement space for steel demand is limited. Weak real estate sales restrict front-end investment. The manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and the incremental space for automobile and home appliance demand is limited. Overall, it is difficult for steel demand to have unexpected growth [25]. 2.4 Attention to Policy Expectations from Conferences - In September, the Political Bureau Meeting of the CPC Central Committee was held to study major issues in formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting decided that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd. On September 5th, Shenzhen issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policy Measures." This new real estate policy in Shenzhen mainly made adjustments in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home purchases, and optimizing credit. The real estate policies in first-tier cities continued to be relaxed. On October 9th, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement on implementing export control measures for five items including superhard materials, rare earth equipment and raw materials, holmium, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials, which will be officially implemented on November 8th. Trump publicly threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US. The real estate industry has been in a continuous downturn, and the data in August did not improve. From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 6.0309 trillion yuan, a 12.9% year-on-year decrease. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, a 9.3% year-on-year decrease. The new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, a 19.5% decrease. Although first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have successively introduced new real estate policies, the policy effects have been limited, and the market is still in the stage of "stopping the decline and stabilizing." The real estate sector has significantly dragged down the demand for construction steel, and it is expected that it will not contribute incremental demand in the short term. The growth rate of infrastructure construction continued to slow down. From January to August, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a 0.5% year-on-year increase. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. The investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. Major projects in Xinjiang, Tibet, and other places started, with a relatively high investment boom, but the overall driving effect on steel demand was limited. In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, a 0.4-percentage-point increase from the previous month. The manufacturing industry's prosperity level continued to improve, but it was in the contraction range for six consecutive months, with limited marginal improvement in the manufacturing industry and pressure on downstream demand. From January to August, the production and sales of automobiles reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively. The new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total new vehicle sales. The export of complete automobiles was 4.292 million units, a 13.7% year-on-year increase. The export of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million units, an 87.3% year-on-year increase. The export of new energy vehicles became the driving force for the growth of automobile exports. From January to August, the cumulative refrigerator production was 70.19 million units, a 1.9% year-on-year increase; the cumulative air conditioner production was 199.65 million units, a 5.8% year-on-year increase; and the washing machine production was 78.26 million units, a 7.8% year-on-year increase. The home appliance production schedule data in October was average, and the overall production of white goods decreased by 9.9% year-on-year, with the largest decline in the production schedule of household air conditioners, a 18% year-on-year decrease. This year, steel exports have remained resilient, but there is high uncertainty in overseas policies. From January to August, China's cumulative steel imports were 1.98 million tons, a 14.1% year-on-year decrease, and the cumulative exports were 77.49 million tons, a 10% year-on-year increase. The export of hot-rolled coils was 14.54 million tons, a 19% year-on-year decrease, affected by anti-dumping measures from South Korea and Vietnam (this year, the export of steel to Vietnam decreased by 21% year-on-year, and to South Korea by 11%); the export of steel bars was 2.6 million tons, a 71% year-on-year increase, continuing the upward trend but with a small proportion [29][30][46][47]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In September, steel supply showed a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. Long-process steel mills were in good profit conditions, with strong willingness to start blast furnaces, and molten iron production remained at a high level, with the daily average molten iron production of steel mills above 2.4 million tons. At the electric furnace end, due to the rising price of scrap steel, the utilization rate of short-process production capacity decreased month-on-month, and the daily consumption of scrap steel dropped to 534,000 tons, increasing the production cut pressure. The supply structure was significantly differentiated. Long-process steel mills maintained production by converting to billet production, and the supply contradiction of flat products began to emerge, with the inventory of hot-rolled coils increasing significantly year-on-year. For rebar, due to the production cuts at electric furnaces, the supply-demand contradiction was slightly alleviated. Overall, in October, the supply side featured rigid production in blast furnaces and elastic adjustment in electric furnaces. If the seasonal recovery of terminal demand falls short of expectations, a new round of production cuts may occur. - Demand side: Steel demand was weak during the peak season. Affected by the real estate market, the demand for building materials was weak. A survey by Baonian Construction showed that at the end of September, the fund availability rate of construction sites was only 59.54%, and the capital sources of real estate enterprises continued to decline. The real estate industry is still in a difficult bottoming-out stage. The manufacturing industry maintained resilience, with good growth in automobile and home appliance production, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased slightly year-on-year. In October, as the weather cools down, the construction site start-up rate is expected to increase, but the seasonal improvement space for steel demand is limited. It is difficult for steel demand to have unexpected growth. In the future month, steel supply pressure remains high, demand growth is limited, and changes in inventory data should be closely monitored. Policy-wise, the Fourth Plenary Session in October may lead to policy support. Fundamentally, the weak demand during the peak season persists, and the weak reality is hard to change. Supply shows a pattern of increased blast furnace production and reduced electric furnace production. If inventory pressure continues to rise, a new round of production cuts may occur. Overall, steel supply outstrips demand, policy support is limited, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference range for rebar is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. Short-term attention should be paid to Sino-US tariff policy interference [49][50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lead market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations. The cost side supports the lead price, but the supply is gradually recovering while the demand fails to meet expectations, increasing the pressure for the lead price to fall after a rise [2][67][68] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Lead Market Review - In September, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated greatly. It rose above 17,000 yuan/ton mid - month due to pre - holiday stocking but fell at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.36%. The center of the London lead price shifted slightly upward, with a monthly decrease of 0.55% [7] 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to July 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 257.5 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. Overseas output is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons, and domestic output is expected to increase by about 70,000 tons [9][10] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In October, domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees decreased. The import volume of lead concentrate and silver concentrate increased in August. The demand for silver concentrate imports is expected to remain high [15][16] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to July 2025, global refined lead output was 7.702 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The annual output is expected to be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [18] - **Repairing smelters resume production, and electrolytic lead output recovers in October**: In September, electrolytic lead output was 327,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 335,000 tons in October [23] - **The price adjustment space of waste batteries is limited, and the improvement of smelter profits is beneficial to supply recovery**: In September, the price of waste batteries stopped falling and stabilized. The output of secondary refined lead in September was 236,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 256,100 tons in October [28][29] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to July 2025, global refined lead consumption was 7.676 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The annual demand is expected to reach 13.19 million tons, with a surplus of 82,000 tons [39] - **Lead battery operation is stable, and the peak consumption season is weak**: In September, the operating rate of lead battery enterprises was slightly better year - on - year but still did not meet expectations. After the holiday, the operating rate will gradually return to the pre - holiday level [42][43] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures suppress battery exports**: In August, the export volume of refined lead increased, but it is expected to remain low in September. The import volume of refined lead increased, and the export of batteries was under pressure [44][45] - **The terminal sector demand growth is slow, and sector performance is differentiated**: The demand for lead batteries in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors is relatively stable, and the demand in the energy storage sector is expected to grow [57][58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from a High Level - In September, LME inventory continued to decline from a high level, and social inventory also dropped from a high level. However, inventory is expected to increase again due to the supply - demand mismatch [63][66] 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The lead ore shortage situation is difficult to ease in the fourth quarter, supporting the lead price. The supply of electrolytic lead and secondary lead is expected to increase in October, but the demand is less than expected. Overall, the lead price is under increasing pressure to fall after a rise [67][68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle, which is favorable for risk assets, but the US government shutdown and the resurgence of China - US tariff conflicts have increased macro uncertainties. China's economy faces certain pressures, and new policy - based financial instruments are expected to strengthen economic growth this year, with the possibility of further policy stimulus still existing [3][88]. - The divergence between domestic and foreign zinc processing fees has intensified. The inflection point of domestic ore processing fees has emerged, and there is still room for adjustment as smelters' winter storage demand rises. The continuous decline in the price of by - product sulfuric acid has compressed smelter profit margins, reducing production enthusiasm. Although refined zinc supply will recover in October, the room for further growth is limited. The current Shanghai - London price ratio is near the critical point for zinc ingot exports, and the opening of the export window is expected to relieve the domestic surplus pressure [3][88]. - The peak consumption season is somewhat dull. The start - up rate of primary enterprises has improved month - on - month but is weaker than the same period. They maintain a just - in - time purchasing rhythm and lack the willingness to actively replenish inventories. In the terminal market, infrastructure has a marginal repair demand and may become an important support for demand in the future; the consumption of automobiles and household appliances remains resilient, the performance in the wind and solar sectors is divergent, the export of galvanized sheets faces weakening pressure, and the real estate sector continues to be weak [3][88]. - Overall, there are more overseas macro disturbances, and market sentiment may fluctuate. The macro trend is less clear. Fundamentally, the situation remains strong overseas and weak domestically. The resumption of smelter production has promoted supply recovery, and demand lacks significant highlights, leading to an increase in supply - demand pressure. However, the expectation of zinc ingot exports is strengthening, which will relieve the domestic surplus pressure, while the liquidity risk of LME zinc will also decrease. These two forces will balance each other, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In September, the main contract price of SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, seeking support. At the beginning of the month, supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the peak consumption season, zinc prices fluctuated strongly. After the Fed cut interest rates, the market sold on the news, and the strong US economic data supported the US dollar, causing zinc prices to fall to 21,825 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.42%. LME zinc rose first and then fell. In the first half of the month, it broke through $2,900/ton and reached a high of $3,003.5/ton. After the interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks from Powell, it corrected and closed at $2,956.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.06% [8]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Situation - The US economy is cooling but remains resilient. The Q2 real GDP grew by 2.08% year - on - year and 3.8% quarter - on - quarter. In August, retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. In September, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, but new orders declined. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50, with business activity falling below the boom - bust line. The ADP employment data in September decreased by 32,000, and inflation continued to rise slowly. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.0 - 4.25% [11][12]. - The US government shut down in late September, and Trump announced additional tariffs on China in October, which increased market uncertainties [13]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Situation - In September, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, while the services PMI rose to 51.4. Inflation rose slightly, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.2% in August. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in September, and its officials' statements were cautious [14]. 3.2.3 China's Situation - In August, most of China's economic indicators continued to decline. Exports, industrial production, consumption, and investment all showed different degrees of slowdown. The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%. The consumption during the National Day holiday was structurally differentiated [16]. - Policy support is expected. The Politburo meeting in September decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan are expected to boost infrastructure investment [17]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate supply has recovered as expected. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 7.1994 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.02%. Overseas zinc concentrate output is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons this year, and domestic output is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons [30]. - The divergence between domestic and foreign processing fees has intensified. In October, the average domestic processing fee was 3,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton, while the average import processing fee was $87.51/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of $16.83/dry ton. In August 2025, 467,300 tons of zinc concentrate were imported, and from January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06% [34][35]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - Overseas smelters are operating at low loads, while China contributes to the increase in supply. From January to July 2025, global refined zinc output was 7.911 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.15%. Overseas output decreased by 4.7%, while China's output increased by 2.65% [41]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of refined zinc was 5.0691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. In September, the output was 600,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. It is expected that the output in October will increase by 3.77% to 622,700 tons. In August, 25,600 tons of refined zinc were imported, and from January to August, the cumulative import volume was 235,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.81%. The import window remains closed, and the export window may open [45][46]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - Globally, from January to July 2025, refined zinc consumption was 7.843 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. Overseas consumption increased by 1.33%, and domestic consumption increased by 2.96%. The supply surplus in the global zinc market was 72,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous year [56]. - In the overseas market, the real estate and automotive sectors showed marginal improvement. In the US, new home sales in August reached an annualized rate of 800,000 units, and new car sales in August were 1.4913 million units. In the eurozone, the construction confidence index improved slightly [57]. - In September, the start - up rate of primary processing enterprises showed a slow recovery. In August, 1.0975 million tons of galvanized sheets were exported, and from January to August, the cumulative export volume was 9.2182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.96% [60][62]. - In the traditional infrastructure sector, investment growth has declined, but there is a demand for recovery. In the real estate sector, investment and sales continue to be weak. In the automotive and household appliance sectors, production and sales are resilient. In the emerging consumption sector, the photovoltaic industry is expected to drive zinc consumption growth, and the wind power industry is also developing well [64][72][73]. 3.3.4 Global Visible Inventory - In September, LME zinc inventory continued to decline, reaching 38,200 tons at the end of the month. The LME 0 - 3 spot premium rose and then slightly declined to $55.98/ton. - In September, China's social inventory first increased and then decreased, reaching 141,400 tons at the end of the month. There is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation during the National Day holiday in early October, but inventory is expected to decline again after the holiday [87].