Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the copper price rose and then fell due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, with Trump threatening to impose high tariffs on China again, which caused market panic. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed a large divergence between hawks and doves on the pace of interest rate cuts this year. The US government shutdown may delay important inflation and employment data, affecting the Fed's decision on future interest rate cut paths. These factors dampened market risk appetite, causing the London copper price to be blocked after rising to $11,000. On the fundamental side, Teck Resources significantly lowered its production forecasts for this year and next due to the extended shutdown of the QB project, intensifying concerns about global mine - end supply. Domestic refined copper production is expected to decline, social inventories are running at a low level, and the near - month futures market maintains a flat - water structure. Overall, although the supply shortage disturbances at overseas resource ends continue to heat up, Sino - US trade frictions reappeared last week, and the Fed's hawks and doves have differences on the interest rate cut rhythm. In the context of the spread of overseas macro - panic sentiment, the copper price is expected to enter a shock adjustment in the short term [2][3][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Price Changes**: From September 26th to October 10th, LME copper rose from $10,205/ton to $10,374/ton, an increase of $169 or 1.66%; COMEX copper rose from 476.45 cents/pound to 484.5 cents/pound, an increase of 8.05 cents or 1.69%; SHFE copper rose from 82,470 yuan/ton to 85,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,440 yuan or 4.17%; international copper rose from 72,870 yuan/ton to 73,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,010 yuan or 1.39%. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 8.08 to 8.28, an increase of 0.2. The LME spot premium/discount rose from -$33.91/ton to -$31.19/ton, an increase of $2.72 or - 8.02%. The Shanghai spot premium/discount rose from - 5 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: From September 26th to October 10th, LME inventory decreased from 144,400 tons to 139,400 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons or 3.46%; COMEX inventory increased from 322,284 short tons to 339,525 short tons, an increase of 17,241 short tons or 5.35%; SHFE inventory increased from 98,761 tons to 109,672 tons, an increase of 10,911 tons or 11.05%; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased from 76,300 tons to 88,000 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons or 15.33%. The total inventory increased from 641,745 tons to 676,597 tons, an increase of 34,852 tons or 5.43% [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The rise and fall of the copper price last week were mainly due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions and the Fed's internal differences on interest rate cuts. Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on China and the possible delay of important economic data due to the US government shutdown dampened market risk appetite. On the fundamental side, the extension of the shutdown of Teck Resources' QB project and production problems in other mines intensified concerns about global mine - end supply [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of September 26th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 641,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 3,200 tons, the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts decreased to 7.15%; SHFE inventory decreased by 7,000 tons; Shanghai bonded area inventory was basically flat. The rebound of the Shanghai - London ratio last week was mainly due to the Fed's overall interest rate cuts falling short of expectations, which boosted the US dollar index to rise from a low level [8]. - **Macro Situation**: Trump's threat to impose tariffs on China and export controls on key software hit market risk appetite, causing a sharp decline in overseas financial market prices. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed differences among officials on the rate and frequency of interest rate cuts. The continued shutdown of the US government may make the Fed lose economic data as a policy reference. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in September rose to 49.8, indicating that manufacturing production activities are accelerating and market demand is improving [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Teck Resources lowered its production guidance for this year and next due to the extended shutdown of the QB project. Panama's copper mine has no hope of resuming production this year, and some mines in Indonesia and Chile are also facing production declines. Global refined copper production is expected to decline slightly in October due to the shortage of overseas ore supply and the new waste copper policy. In terms of demand, the construction progress of power grid investment projects has been postponed, the start - up rate of copper cable production is lower than usual, but the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries show certain demand [10]. Industry News - **Chilean Copper Mines**: Codelco's copper production in August decreased by 25% due to a fatal collapse accident at the El Teniente copper mine. The Escondida copper mine's production was basically stable, while the Collahuasi copper mine's production decreased by 27% due to lower ore grades [12]. - **Teck Resources**: Due to the extended shutdown of the QB project to raise the tailings dam height, Teck Resources lowered its 2025 production guidance from 210,000 - 230,000 tons to 170,000 - 190,000 tons and its 2026 production forecast from 280,000 - 310,000 tons to 200,000 - 235,000 tons. The net cash unit cost in 2025 is expected to be between $2.65 - $3.00 per pound, higher than the previous forecast [13]. - **Freeport - McMoRan**: The company found the remains of all 7 missing workers at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia after a mudslide. The mine is expected to fully resume operations in 2027, and some unaffected areas may restart production later this year. The company has declared force majeure on its Indonesian freight and lowered its production forecasts for this year and next [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas, the US government shutdown persists, the Senate has rejected the appropriation bill for the seventh time, and there are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The dollar index has risen, and the prices of gold, oil, and stocks have fluctuated. Domestically, the stock and bond markets both rose on the first trading day after the holiday. The stock market is expected to rise structurally in the short term, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate in October [2][3]. - For precious metals, the easing of the Middle - East situation has weakened the safe - haven demand, and investors are taking profits. Gold and silver prices may face short - term adjustment risks [4]. - For copper, Teck Resources has lowered its production forecast, and the copper price is expected to continue to rise in the short term under the strong support of fundamentals [5][6]. - For aluminum, news has driven the price to continue to be strong, and the short - term price is expected to remain strong [7][8]. - For alumina, the supply pressure is still high in the short term, but the bottom support may gradually strengthen [9]. - For zinc, the short - term market sentiment is positive, and the zinc price is expected to continue to be strong in a volatile manner [10]. - For lead, the decrease in inventory during the holiday is beneficial to the price, but the increase in supply and weak consumption will limit the upward space [11]. - For tin, supply - side disturbances support the price, and the short - term price is expected to be strong, but the upward trend may slow down [12]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is slightly loose, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [13][14]. - For steel products, the demand has recovered after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - For iron ore, the demand is stable, the supply is flat, and the price is expected to fluctuate [17]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, the domestic supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [18][19]. - For palm oil, the expectation of the Indonesian B50 policy provides support, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - SHFE copper closed at 86,750 yuan/ton, up 4.38%; LME copper closed at 10,777 dollars/ton, up 0.74% [22]. - SHFE aluminum closed at 21,090 yuan/ton, up 1.98%; LME aluminum closed at 2,783 dollars/ton, up 1.13% [22]. - SHFE alumina closed at 2,875 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [22]. - SHFE zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, up 2.25%; LME zinc closed at 3,014 dollars/ton, up 0.65% [22]. - SHFE lead closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, up 1.03%; LME lead closed at 2,021 dollars/ton, up 0.80% [22]. - SHFE nickel closed at 124,480 yuan/ton, up 2.96%; LME nickel closed at 15,485 dollars/ton, up 0.67% [22]. - SHFE tin closed at 287,090 yuan/ton; LME tin closed at 36,820 dollars/ton, up 1.57% [22]. - COMEX gold closed at 3,991.10 dollars/ounce, down 1.71%; SHFE silver closed at 11,169.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.30%; COMEX silver closed at 47.66 dollars/ounce, down 1.62% [22]. - SHFE rebar closed at 3,096 yuan/ton, up 0.78%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,286 yuan/ton, up 1.01% [22]. - DCE iron ore closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1.28% [22]. - DCE coking coal closed at 1,164.0 yuan/ton, up 3.37%; DCE coke closed at 1,654.0 yuan/ton, up 1.91% [22]. - GFEX industrial silicon closed at 8,640.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [22]. - CBOT soybeans closed at 1,021.8 yuan/ton, down 0.78%; DCE soybean meal closed at 2,939.0 yuan/ton; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2,435.0 yuan/ton [22]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, SHFE copper's main contract price rose from 83,110 yuan/ton on September 30th to 86,750 yuan/ton on October 9th. LME copper's March contract price rose from 10,697 dollars/ton to 10,776.5 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 275 tons to 139,475 tons [23]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel's main contract price was 124,480 yuan/ton on October 9th. LME nickel's March contract price rose from 15,382 dollars/ton to 15,485 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 4,260 tons to 236,892 tons [23][26]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc's main contract price rose from 21,825 yuan/ton to 22,315 yuan/ton. LME zinc price rose from 2,994.5 dollars/ton to 3,014 dollars/ton. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,646 tons to 58,867 tons [26]. - For lead, SHFE lead's main contract price rose from 16,940 yuan/ton to 17,115 yuan/ton. LME lead price slightly decreased from 2,005 dollars/ton to 2,004.5 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 625 tons to 236,075 tons [26]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum's continuous third - month contract price was 21,085 yuan/ton. LME aluminum's March contract price rose from 2,751.5 dollars/ton to 2,782.5 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 2,200 tons to 508,600 tons [26]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina's main contract price rose from 2,868 yuan/ton to 2,875 yuan/ton. The national average spot price of alumina decreased from 3,008 yuan/ton to 2,998 yuan/ton [26]. - For tin, SHFE tin's main contract price was 287,090 yuan/ton. LME tin price rose from 36,250 dollars/ton to 36,820 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 115 tons to 2,390 tons [26]. - For precious metals, there were no significant price changes in SHFE gold, COMEX gold, and related gold products. SHFE silver and COMEX silver also had relatively stable prices. The SHFE gold - silver ratio rose from 80.09 to 81.86, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased slightly from 83.83 to 83.75 [26]. - For steel products, SHFE rebar's main contract price rose from 3,072 yuan/ton to 3,096 yuan/ton. SHFE hot - rolled coil's main contract price rose from 3,253 yuan/ton to 3,286 yuan/ton. The north - south price difference of rebar decreased slightly [28]. - For iron ore, DCE iron ore's main contract price rose from 780.5 yuan/ton to 790.5 yuan/ton. The price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose from 778 yuan/ton to 784 yuan/ton [28]. - For coking coal and coke, DCE coking coal's main contract price rose from 1,126.0 yuan/ton to 1,164.0 yuan/ton. DCE coke's main contract price rose from 1,623.0 yuan/ton to 1,654.0 yuan/ton [28]. - For lithium carbonate, the main contract price of lithium carbonate rose from 7.274 to 7.36. The spot prices of electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly [28]. - For industrial silicon, the main contract price of industrial silicon was 8,640 yuan/ton. The average price of East China's 3303 industrial silicon was 10,550 yuan/ton [28]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, CBOT soybean's main contract price rose from 1,000.75 to 1,021.75. DCE soybean meal's main contract price rose from 2,928 yuan/ton to 2,939 yuan/ton. CZCE rapeseed meal's main contract price rose from 2,421 yuan/ton to 2,435 yuan/ton [28].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 宏观：国际金价站上 4000，国内假期出行活跃 海外方面，美国政府陷入停摆、9 月非农就业报告推迟发布，截至目前尚未解决，参议 院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。日本高市早苗当选自民党总裁，将接任日本首相，其政策 主张宽货币、宽财政；法国总理提交辞呈，再度引发政治担忧，日元、欧元兑美元贬值，美 元指数升破 99 后回落。海外政府不确定性及地缘政治摩擦升温，推动金价站上 4000 美元关 口，AI 产业叙事进一步发酵，假期期间海外股指均收涨、铜价涨幅超 4%、油价走平。近期 关注美国政府关门进展、美联储官员的讲话、以及海外地缘政治的风险。 国内方面，国庆中秋假期出行活跃度高于去年，但消费增速放缓，跨区域流动保持较快 增长，零售餐饮销售同比上升但较五一假期回落，出行热度与消费动力呈现结构性分化。假 期地产成交整体低迷，同比去年整体回落，一线城市因前期限购放松表现相对坚挺。目前国 内处于经济基本面温和、预期先行的格局，本周关注 9 月金融数据。 贵金属：金银再创新高，预计将维持强势运行 十一长假期间，美国政府停摆导致的经济数据延迟，令资金大举流入黄金与白银等避险 资产。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the resumption of production at primary lead smelters, the gradual resumption of secondary lead production, and the arrival of some crude lead, the supply side shows a recovery trend. However, downstream battery companies have completed their stockpiling, and the inventory reduction will slow down. There is a supply - demand mismatch during the National Day holiday, and there is an expectation of inventory increase, which will put pressure on lead prices. With fewer trading days this week and cautious pre - holiday funds, it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate weakly at high levels [3][7] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Transaction Data - From September 19th to September 26th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,150 yuan/ton to 17,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the LME lead price dropped from 2,003 dollars/ton to 2,001.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio dropped from 8.56 to 8.55; the SHFE inventory decreased by 8,123 tons to 49,209 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 875 tons to 219,425 tons; the social inventory decreased by 0.84 million tons to 4.64 million tons; the spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2511 fluctuated at a high level, closing at 17,110 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.23%. The LME lead first declined and then rose, maintaining a sideways oscillation, closing at 2,001.5 dollars/ton with a weekly decline of 0.07%. In the spot market, near the National Day holiday, the supply of circulating goods was limited. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and most lead battery companies had completed pre - holiday stockpiling and only maintained rigid procurement. The inventory decreased significantly but the downward trend will slow down later [5][6] Industry News - In October, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 400 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 115 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 dollars/dry ton. A large smelter in Henan resumed production on September 26th. In August, the import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates decreased by 6.51% month - on - month and increased by 30.87% year - on - year; the import volume of refined zinc increased by 43.3% month - on - month and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year; the export volume of galvanized sheets decreased by 8.35% month - on - month and increased by 1.71% year - on - year [8] Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan to promote stable growth in the non - ferrous metals industry restricts the new and under - construction project commissioning speed of alumina, and the alumina industry is expected to undergo a new round of supply - side reform, with market supply pressure under control [2][6]. - Affected by the news, the market may have a short - term concentrated release of bullish sentiment, and alumina will start a phased rebound. The rebound height and duration are greatly affected by sentiment and are highly uncertain [2][6]. - Alumina futures' main contract fell 1.76% last week, closing at 2,901 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market on Friday was 3,022 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from the previous week [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - Alumina futures (active) dropped from 2,953 yuan/ton on September 19th to 2,901 yuan/ton on September 26th, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price dropped from 3,061 yuan/ton to 3,022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 133 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [3]. - The FOB price of Australian alumina dropped from 323 US dollars/ton to 321 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss decreased from 175.36 yuan/ton to 153.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.8 yuan/ton [3]. - The exchange warehouse inventory decreased by 1,182 tons to 149,211 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [3]. Market Review - The supply of bauxite is in a severe situation, but due to strong market wait - and - see sentiment, the ore price has no obvious adjustment. The FOB price of imported bauxite from Guinea in the fourth - quarter long - term contract has dropped slightly compared with the third quarter [2][4]. - On the supply side, alumina supply has increased. As of September 25th, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 96.3 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.89% [4]. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Shandong continued to transfer production capacity to Yunnan, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Gansu, Guangxi, Xinjiang, and Qinghai released maintenance capacity. Overall, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the demand for alumina increased [4]. - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 149,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][4][6]. Market Outlook - The cost support of alumina may weaken in the future. The operating capacity on the supply side continues to increase, and the overseas alumina spot price is still weak, with the import window remaining open. It is expected that about 130,000 tons will arrive in October [2][6]. - The electrolytic aluminum enterprises on the consumption side mainly focus on production capacity transfer, with little change in theoretical demand. Before the National Day holiday, some procurement through bidding increased, and the spot trading volume increased [2][6]. Industry News - As of August 2025, China's total bauxite imports reached 141.756 million tons. In August, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, of which 12.326 million tons were from Guinea, and 4.43 million tons were from Australia, reaching a five - year high [7]. - The COBAD bauxite mine in Guinea has been shut down since September 24th due to a general strike. The strike events of Guinean mining enterprises are on the rise, which poses a risk to the global bauxite supply chain [7]. - In August 2025, China imported 94,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1,392%; exported 180,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 21.4% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 488,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 61.3%, and the cumulative export volume was 1.753 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 59%, with a cumulative net export of 1.265 million tons [7]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][11][13][17][19][25][26][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is optimistic about the aluminum price, rating it as "oscillating and moderately strong" [1][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk of a US recession has decreased, and the expectation of the Fed continuing to cut interest rates in October remains as high as 85%, with positive macro - expectations [1][6] - On the fundamental side, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is basically stable. There may be concentrated arrivals after the National Day holiday, leading to a temporary inventory build - up. The consumption side is in the traditional peak season, and consumption resilience is expected to remain [1][6] - Considering both macro and fundamental expectations, the aluminum price is expected to be oscillating and moderately strong [1][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum decreased from 2676 yuan/ton on September 19th to 2649 yuan/ton on September 26th, a drop of 27 yuan/ton [2] - SHFE aluminum continuous third contract decreased from 20790 dollars/ton to 20755 dollars/ton, a drop of 35 dollars/ton [2] - The LME aluminum inventory increased by 3800 tons to 517700 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 8729 tons to 63230 tons [2] - The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.1 tons to 61.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 12.3 tons [1][2][5] - The electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased by 135.9 yuan/ton to 4570.03 yuan/ton [2] Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20732 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average price of the South China storage spot was 20670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 158 yuan/ton from the previous week [3] - In terms of the macro - aspect, the US economic data was strong, but the Fed had a large divergence on future monetary policy [4] - The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63% [1][5] Market Outlook - The macro - expectation is positive, and the fundamental supply is basically stable. After the National Day, there may be a temporary inventory build - up. The consumption side is in the peak season, and consumption resilience is expected to remain. The aluminum price is expected to be oscillating and moderately strong [1][6] Industry News - PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry plans to commission its aluminum smelter in stages, with the first - phase annual production capacity of 500,000 tons and a future expansion plan to 1.5 million tons [7] - In August 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 217,344.071 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.48%. From January to August, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were 1.715 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [7] Related Charts - The report provides 10 related charts, including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous third price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc. [8][9][14]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures bottomed out and rebounded. The macro - situation is centered around the Fed's October interest - rate cut expectation, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payrolls report. The improvement in demand has led to inventory reduction, and the low overseas inventory and strong structure support the zinc price. However, the resumption of production in domestic refineries and new capacity input will keep the supply high, limiting the upward elasticity of zinc prices. Overall, the long - and short - term forces are balanced, and the continuous adjustment space of zinc prices is limited [3][4][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From September 19th to September 26th, the price of SHFE zinc remained unchanged at 22,045 yuan/ton; the price of LME zinc rose from 2898.5 to 2922.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 24 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.61 to 7.54. The inventory of SHFE increased by 4666 tons to 99315 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 4025 tons to 43,800 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.66 million tons to 15.04 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 50 to - 60 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc, ZN2511, fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after bottoming out and rebounding. The final price was 21,980 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.27%. LME zinc first declined and then rose, supported by the 30 - day moving average, and finally closed at 2886.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.41%. In the spot market, by September 25th, the trading was dominated by traders' shipments, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed, with weakening purchasing power and a slight decline in spot discounts [6][7]. 3. Industry News - In October, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the average imported ore processing fee was 87.51 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 16.83 dollars/dry ton. Antamina Mine's zinc production is expected to reach 450,000 tons this year, a 67% increase from last year, offsetting a 12% decline in copper production [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external ratio, spot and LME premiums, inventory situations of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream end - user enterprise operating rates [15][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US Q2 economic data was strong, with GDP and personal consumption growth exceeding expectations. The core PCE growth slowed in August, and the risk of stagflation seemed to subside. Fed officials had differences on the interest - rate cut path, and the market bet on a 25bp rate cut in October. In China, the interest - rate benchmark remained unchanged, with expectations of RRR and interest - rate cuts [3]. - Fundamental situation: The conflict in the Middle East had limited impact on overseas nickel mines, mainly affecting the loading and unloading efficiency of southern Chinese ports. The Boroy typhoon might have affected Philippine nickel mines, but the ore price was stable. Nickel - iron plants faced cost pressure, and the game on nickel - ore prices between upstream and downstream continued. Some nickel - sulfate manufacturers stopped production, with prices firm but limited price - increase power for nickel salts. The trading of pure nickel did not improve [3]. - Future outlook: With expected disturbances in the macro and resource aspects, nickel prices may fluctuate widely. During the National Day, overseas economic data will be released, and the domestic market closure may bring more uncertainties. Indonesia will announce a new RKAB approval plan in October, making the supply outlook of the ore end uncertain. The market trading is expected to be cold before the holiday, and nickel prices may fluctuate, with attention to overseas market disturbances during the holiday [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Variety | 2025/9/26 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121380 | 121500 | - 120 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15166.91 | 15271 | - 104.09 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 230124 | 228444 | 1680 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 25153 | 25843 | - 690 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2350 | 2400 | - 50 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 350 | 450 | - 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 961 | 961 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 82.4 | 81.9 | 0.49 | Tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macroeconomic data**: The market bet that the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in October was 85.5%. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3.8%, personal consumption expenditure was 2.5%, and the core PCE price index was 2.6%. The initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 were 218,000. The August core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, and personal expenditure monthly rate was 0.6% [5]. - **Nickel - ore market**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines was stable at 49 US dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia was 37.65 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic nickel - ore port inventory was 971 million tons as of September 19, a significant increase of 18 million tons from the previous period but still lower than last year [6]. - **Pure - nickel market**: In August, China's refined - nickel production was 35,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The monthly production capacity was about 53,699 tons, and the operating rate was 66%. The profit margins of MHP and integrated high - matte nickel improved. In August, China imported 24,186 tons of refined nickel, a significant year - on - year increase but a month - on - month decrease. The export volume was about 15,048 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.12%. As of September 26, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was 164.32 US dollars/ton [7][8]. - **Nickel - iron market**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) fluctuated around 954.5 yuan/nickel point. In August, China's nickel - iron production was 25,280 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.77%, and Indonesia's was 137,900 nickel tons, a year - on - month and month - on - month increase. As of September 15, the nickel - iron inventory decreased slightly. Nickel - iron plants still faced losses, and the raw - material inventory was cautious [8]. - **Stainless - steel market**: In August, the production plan of China's 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.79 million tons. As of September 25, the inventory was about 532,400 tons, a slight increase. In September, the steel - mill production plan increased, and the de - stocking trend might continue [9]. - **Nickel - sulfate market**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,150 yuan/ton to 28,200 yuan/ton, and that of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate was stable at 29,750 yuan/ton. In August, the nickel - sulfate metal output was about 30,480 tons. The output of ternary materials increased. As of September 26, the downstream and upstream inventory days were 9 days and 5 days respectively. The price of nickel sulfate was stable, and the actual trading volume was limited [10]. - **New - energy vehicle market**: From September 1 - 21, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 697,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Overseas, the US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars. In China, the high - frequency sales growth rate continued to pick up, but there were still concerns in the later stage [10]. - **Inventory situation**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel was 40,828 tons, a decrease of 656 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory was 25,153 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 690 tons, and the LME inventory was 230,123 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1680 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 990 tons [11]. 3.3 Industry News - On September 20, 2025, Qingmeibang's 30,000 - ton electrowinning nickel production line was officially opened, becoming the first full - industrial - chain base for nickel resources and downstream products in Indonesia [13]. - The ESDM department suspended 190 mining companies in Indonesia, with a maximum suspension period of 60 days. The suspension could be lifted if the companies submitted reclamation plans and provided reclamation deposits. Otherwise, their mining licenses might be permanently revoked [13]. - Starting from October 1, 2025, the Indonesian ESDM will require the submission of the RKAB through the MinerbaOne application. The government is communicating with IUP holders [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [15][17][19][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The trading margin and daily price limit for rebar and hot-rolled coil have been adjusted by the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The spot market shows weak trading, confirming the weak reality. The industry data last week was favorable, with both production and apparent demand increasing and inventory decreasing for the five major steel products. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded, production remained flat, and inventory significantly decreased, while the data for hot-rolled coil changed little. As the pre-holiday inventory replenishment by steel mills nears completion, the positive factors for raw materials have been realized and prices have declined. It is expected that the futures prices will fluctuate under pressure. Attention should be paid to holiday risks. [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3114 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 1.83%, with a total trading volume of 7,678,373 lots and an open interest of 2,832,803 lots. - SHFE hot-rolled coil closed at 3313 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 1.81%, with a total trading volume of 2,616,236 lots and an open interest of 1,369,716 lots. - DCE iron ore closed at 790.0 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan or 2.17%, with a total trading volume of 1,419,700 lots and an open interest of 529,740 lots. - DCE coking coal closed at 1196.5 yuan/ton, down 35.5 yuan or 2.88%, with a total trading volume of 6,549,970 lots and an open interest of 907,095 lots. - DCE coke closed at 1692.5 yuan/ton, down 46.0 yuan or 2.65%, with a total trading volume of 141,015 lots and an open interest of 53,441 lots. [2] Market Review - The steel futures market adjusted downward after fluctuating last week. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2970 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the Shanghai rebar price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil price was 3360 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. [4] Industry News - Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target for the added value of the steel industry at around 4% in the next two years. The plan proposes measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, classification management of steel enterprises, and stable supply of raw materials. [6][7] Relevant Charts - The content provides multiple charts related to the futures and basis spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil, production, inventory, and apparent demand, as well as the regional price differences and profits of steel products. [9][10][11]

铜周报 矿端扰动不断，铜价突破上行 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价突破向上，主因美国8月核心通胀表现符合预期， 进一步助推年内降息预期回升，上周多位美国经济领域的 前任领袖阻止解雇库克，称此举将会严重损害美联储政策 独立性以市场对美国货币政策的公信力，解雇风波暂缓提 振美元指数低位反弹；此外，我国8月工业企业利润同比 大幅反弹，反内卷政策效果显著提振市场信心。基本面来 看，印尼Grasberg和秘鲁安塔米纳均大幅下调近期产量预 期，精矿供应愈发趋近，国内精铜产量预期下滑，社会库 存偏低运行，近月盘面回归平水结构。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ...