1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The market digests the news of tariff mitigation and domestic policy benefits, which will drive some bargain - hunting in the market. However, the new US tariffs are in contradiction, economic data is mixed, and global demand concerns remain. With stable supply, a tail - end of the consumption peak season but still resilient demand, and the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias, testing the pressure at the 20,000 yuan mark [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2385 yuan/ton on April 17, 2025, to 2459.5 yuan/ton on April 24, 2025, an increase of 74.5 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price rose from 19565 dollars/ton to 19815 dollars/ton, an increase of 250 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.2 to 8.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased from 439325 tons to 423575 tons. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 95909 tons to 76763 tons. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased from 68.9 tons to 65.8 tons, and domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory decreased by 3.14 tons [3] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot in the spot market was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared with last week [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the market digests tariff mitigation and policy benefits, but there are still concerns. Fundamentally, supply is stable, consumption is in the tail - end of the peak season with some resilience. During the pre - May Day stocking period, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate with a positive bias [7] 3.4 Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on carbon emission trading market work, requiring tasks and time limits for key emission units in industries such as aluminum smelting. The US President will exempt some tariffs on automobile manufacturers, steel, and aluminum, and the Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese tariffs may drop to 50% - 65%. From January to March 2025, the national new photovoltaic installed capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.5% [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which can be used for further analysis of the aluminum market [9][10][13]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE lead fluctuated around 17,000 yuan. The easing of tariff concerns and the release of Fed's rate - cut remarks improved market sentiment, increasing the weight of fundamental pricing. The fundamentals showed a double - weak supply - demand situation. The supply of lead ore was not extremely tight due to imports, while the supply of recycled lead decreased due to raw material shortages and losses, and new production capacity was postponed. On the demand side, lead - acid batteries were in the off - season, and some enterprises planned to have a 5 - day holiday for May Day, 2.5 days more than last year. With the co - existence of reductions and restarts in primary lead smelters and greater impacts from recycled lead maintenance and postponed production, the supply decreased, but battery consumption was poor. The lead price had limited unilateral drivers and was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From April 18th to April 25th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,895 yuan/ton to 16,945 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1927.5 dollars/ton to 1945 dollars/ton, an increase of 17.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.77 to 8.71; the SHFE inventory decreased by 11,406 tons to 45,654 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 7,550 tons to 274,075 tons; the social inventory decreased from 54,700 tons to 46,200 tons, a decrease of 8,500 tons; the spot premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 85 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2506 contract of SHFE lead fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.53%. The LME lead rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.91%. In the spot market, the offers of different brands in different regions had certain premiums or discounts to the SHFE lead 2505 contract. The downstream enterprises' enthusiasm for purchasing large - discount goods increased, and the trading activity improved. As of April 25th, the LME inventory decreased by 7,550 tons to 274,075 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 11,406 tons to 45,654 tons. As of April 24th, the SMM five - region social inventory decreased by 16,700 tons compared to April 17th and by 8,500 tons compared to April 21st [5][6]. Industry News - In May, the monthly processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates were flat month - on - month. A small - scale lead and precious - rare metal recycling and smelting capacity in Guangxi was expected to be put into operation in Q4 2025, with an expected electrolytic lead production capacity of 60,000 tons/year. A smelter in South China started lead - zinc smelting maintenance, expected to affect about 10,000 tons of zinc and 4,000 tons of lead. A large - scale primary lead smelter in Henan resumed production. A new recycled lead smelter in Southwest China postponed its production to mid - May. Some recycled lead smelters in Central and East China reduced production due to raw material shortages. In March, the import volume of lead concentrates was 116,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 59.69%. The total import of refined lead and lead products was 11,933 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.35%, and the export was 5,228 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.6%. In 2025, the global refined lead supply is expected to exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The global refined lead demand is expected to grow by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, the global lead mine output is expected to grow by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons, and the global refined lead production is expected to grow by 1.9% to 13.27 million tons [8][9]. Related Charts - The report includes charts such as SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory situations of SHFE and LME, 1 lead premium/discount, LME lead premium/discount, price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery price, profit of recycled lead enterprises, lead concentrate processing fees, production of primary lead and recycled refined lead, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [11][12][16]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract of SHFE zinc rebounded. The macro - sentiment improved as Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs eased and Fed officials signaled potential interest - rate cuts. The Politburo meeting in China maintained a positive tone, restoring market risk appetite. The Antamina mine's short - term shutdown due to an accident had little impact, and the global zinc ore supply recovery pattern remained unchanged. In May, there are many regular refinery overhauls, with an expected output reduction of around 20,000 tons. The import of zinc ingots has not been continuously opened, and the supply of imported goods in the market is limited. Some holders are reluctant to sell, leading to a rise in spot premiums. On the demand side, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises declined, the orders of some alloy enterprises are expected to decrease, and the operating rate of zinc oxide decreased slightly. However, due to downstream restocking at low prices and holders' reluctance to sell, the inventory continued to decline to 85,800 tons. Overall, although the tariff concerns have eased, there is no substantial progress. The increase in refinery overhauls reduces the supply pressure of refined zinc, and the low inventory supports the expansion of the single - side price and the monthly spread. But approaching the May Day holiday, overseas risks still exist, and domestic margin requirements are increased, so the rebound pace of zinc prices is expected to slow down, and there is significant pressure at the upper integer levels [3][4][10][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From April 18th to April 25th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 22,050 yuan/ton to 22,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,595 dollars/ton to 2,645.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 50.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio increased from 8.50 to 8.60. The SHFE inventory decreased by 7,207 tons to 51,378 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 15,300 tons to 180,050 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. The spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of SHFE zinc ZN2506 continued to rebound from a low level last week, closing at 22,750 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.17%. The price center shifted down on Friday night. The LME zinc rebounded, closing at 2,645.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.95%. In the spot market, the spot premium rebounded, but the trading was light. As of April 25th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 15,300 tons to 180,050 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 7,207 tons to 51,378 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. In terms of the macro - environment, the US April Markit composite PMI declined more than expected, Trump mentioned potential tariff cuts on China, and Fed officials discussed interest - rate cuts. The eurozone's April composite PMI had almost zero growth. China's Politburo meeting emphasized a more proactive macro - policy [6][7][8][9]. 3. Industry News - In May, the monthly processing fees for domestic and imported zinc concentrates increased by 50 yuan/metal ton and 5 dollars/dry ton respectively. On April 22nd, the Antamina mine in Peru had an accident and resumed operation on the 24th. In March, the import volume of zinc concentrates decreased by 22.09% month - on - month and increased by 47.16% year - on - year, and the import volume of refined zinc decreased by 18.12% month - on - month and 40.5% year - on - year. In the first quarter, Teck's zinc concentrate output decreased by 14% year - on - year, Boliden's increased by 38.95% quarter - on - quarter and 45.78% year - on - year, and Newmont's decreased by 23.9% quarter - on - quarter. The demand for electronic product orders in the die - casting zinc alloy industry in Guangdong has slowed down. The ILZSG expects the global refined zinc demand to increase by 1% to 1.364 million tons in 2025 and the output to increase by 1.8% to 1.373 million tons, and the zinc mine output to increase by 4.3% to 1.243 million tons [12][13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio, spot premiums, LME premiums, inventory changes, and domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, etc., which help to visually present the market situation of zinc [15][19][20][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices remained volatile. The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the Fed may cut interest rates if the job market deteriorates. The US significantly reduced tariffs on China, but the two sides have not entered the formal negotiation stage, causing market concerns. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits turned positive, and the central bank conducted net MLF injections. The domestic economic cycle is accelerating. Fundamentally, the spot TC negative value dropped to -$40, the domestic trade spot premium was high, and the B structure of the futures market narrowed. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, pending further clarity on the Sino-US trade situation [2][3][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From April 18th to April 25th, LME copper rose from $9,254/ton to $9,360/ton, a 1.15% increase; COMEX copper rose from 470.5 cents/pound to 490.05 cents/pound, a 4.16% increase; SHFE copper rose from 76,140 yuan/ton to 77,440 yuan/ton, a 1.71% increase; international copper rose from 67,750 yuan/ton to 68,990 yuan/ton, a 1.83% increase. The Shanghai-London ratio rose from 8.23 to 8.27 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of April 25th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 563,461 tons, a 9.44% decrease from April 18th. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 9,950 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 54,858 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 2,800 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 8,849 short tons [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro Factors**: The IMF lowered the 2025 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%. The US may adjust tariffs on Chinese goods, and the Fed may cut interest rates if the job market worsens. Domestically, in Q1, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and in March, they increased by 2.6% year-on-year [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The spot weekly TC once widened to -$40. The global mine supply is expected to remain tight in the medium term. Domestic smelters maintain high operating rates, but imports decreased in March. In terms of demand, the bidding progress of power grid investment projects is slow, but the start-up rate of cable enterprises in March rebounded to 73.6%. The new energy industry has stable copper demand growth [10]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25th, the total global copper inventory decreased to 563,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME0 - 3 structure turned to C. The cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 37.9%. SHFE inventory decreased by 55,000 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 2,800 tons. The COMEX copper inventory increased to 132,000 tons [8]. 3. Industry News - Peru's Antamina copper mine had a mining accident, and production is expected to be significantly affected. In February 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 61,000 tons. In Q1, MMG's copper concentrate production reached 120,000 tons, and the production of its African mine increased. The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China increased slightly, and the start-up of refined copper rod enterprises is expected to slowly recover in early May [12][13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in various regions, copper spot premium trends, and the net long - position ratio of COMEX copper non - commercial traders, etc., to visually display the market situation [15][16][19]

宏观周报 4 月政治局会议：高质量自强应对冲击 核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面，美国最新经济数据依旧呈现出"硬数据"尚可、 "软数据"恶化的特征，4月制造业PMI超预期、服务业 景气降温，企业及居民对关税影响的担忧仍在发酵；密歇 根大学消费者信心指数、通胀预期仍在朝着"滞胀"的方 向演绎。特朗普关税谈判近期未见显著进展，中美贸易战 缓和预期发酵，国际金价创3500美元新高后回落，美元指 数站稳99关口，美股、铜、油均不同程度的修复，10Y美 债利率回落至4.23%。关注本周美国一季度GDP、3月ISM PMI、3月PCE数据。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 4 月 28 日 投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫ 国内方面，3月工业企业利润小幅修复，上游原材料、中 游装备制造转好，企业 "量升价跌"迹象仍有待扭转。4 月政治局会议召开，明确传递出两大信号：① ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon prices were in a low - level oscillation. The main reasons were the unclear global trade situation, the转正 of the profit growth rate of Chinese industrial enterprises, and the rather sluggish sentiment in the industrial products market. The supply side was shifting to contraction, while the short - term oversupply situation continued. The social inventory slightly decreased to 602,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory was still close to 70,000 lots. Overall, the year - on - year profit growth rate of Chinese industrial enterprises turned positive, but the Sino - US trade situation remained unclear, and market concerns persisted. The supply was loose, and the consumption side showed no obvious increase. It was expected that the industrial silicon would continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2][5][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - From April 18th to April 25th, the price of the industrial silicon main contract rose from 8,720 yuan/ton to 8,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69%. The prices of oxygen - passing 553 spot, non - oxygen - passing 553 spot, 421 spot, 3303 spot, and organic silicon DMC spot all decreased, with decreases of 2.54%, 2.58%, 1.88%, 0.87%, and 6.71% respectively. The price of polysilicon dense material spot remained unchanged. The industrial silicon social inventory remained at 451,000 tons [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: In the first quarter of this year, the year - on - year profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 0.8%, and in March, it increased by 2.6%. The profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and the profit of the high - tech manufacturing industry turned from a decline to an increase [6]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of April 25th, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased to 72,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.21%. The number of open furnaces in the three major main production areas decreased to 219, with an overall open - furnace rate of 27.48%. Some polysilicon enterprises have production reduction plans in May, and silicon wafer enterprises have production reduction expectations later. The price of photovoltaic cells has been continuously falling, and the support from the cost side has been gradually weakening. Component enterprises are pessimistic about the future market [7]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of April 25th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 602,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease to 6.95 lots, equivalent to 347,000 tons. After the exchange introduced new regulations on the delivery product standards, most of the 4 - series brand warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts that met the new delivery standards were actively registered and stored, resulting in an increasing warehouse receipt inventory [8]. 3. Industry News - **China's wind and photovoltaic power generation**: In the first quarter of 2025, the newly added installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power generation in China reached 74.33 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 1.482 billion kilowatts, exceeding the thermal power installed capacity for the first time. The power generation of wind and photovoltaic power accounted for 22.5% of the total social power consumption, an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year [9]. - **Saudi Arabia's photovoltaic development**: With the Saudi government gradually canceling energy subsidies, many enterprises in various industries are accelerating the shift to solar power generation. For example, Fakeeh Care Group reduced its electricity bill expenditure by more than 170,000 riyals in 2024 after installing solar panels, and Tamer Group saved more than 440,000 riyals in energy expenditure in 2024 and plans to expand the photovoltaic system to all major distribution centers within two years [10].

油脂板块震荡收涨 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨61收于4036林吉特/吨，涨幅 1.53%；棕榈油09合约涨244收于8376元/吨，涨幅3%；豆 油09合约涨230收于7934元/吨，涨幅2.99%；菜油09合约 涨285收于9506元/吨，涨幅3.09%；CBOT美豆油主连涨1.38 收于49.7美分/磅，涨幅2.86%；ICE油菜籽活跃合约涨21.4 收于697.4加元/吨，涨幅3.17%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 政策积极有为 期价震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 宏观面：中共中央政治局召开会议，会议强调，要加 紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极 的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加力实施城市更 新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。加快构 建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给，优化存 量商品房收购政策，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 持续稳定和活跃资本市场。 ⚫ 基本面： ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The fundamental outlook is marginally weakening, and lithium prices may experience a second bottoming. In terms of supply, some lithium salt plants had regular production cuts in April, and the resumption of production in May will increase domestic lithium salt supply. Meanwhile, Chile's lithium salt exports to China increased significantly in March, and there is also an expectation of an increase in imported resources. On the demand side, the high - frequency sales growth rate of new energy vehicles under the Passenger Car Association's statistics has weakened, and the boost from the April auto show to consumption was slightly less than expected. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics remains at a low level, indicating a gap between actual consumption and enterprise expectations, and the inventory pressure of finished vehicles persists. As the automotive consumption enters the seasonal off - season, the fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. Technically, the lithium price initially bottomed out last period, but the subsequent correction was less than the previous high, and after the short - covering rebound, many long - positions also left, suggesting that trend - following long - positions are not firm. With the marginal weakening of the fundamentals, lithium prices may have a second bottoming [4]. Group 2: Market Data - Imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) decreased from $118/ton to $116/ton, a change of -$2.00 and -1.69% [5]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from $730/ton to $722/ton, a change of -$8.00 and -1.10% [5]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from $730/ton to $722/ton, a change of -$8 and -1.10% [5]. - The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 7.04 million yuan/ton to 6.82 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.22 million yuan and -3.13% [5]. - The spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 7.05 million yuan/ton to 0 million yuan/ton, a change of -7.05 million yuan and -100.00% [5]. - The main contract price of lithium carbonate decreased from 7.04 million yuan/ton to 6.84 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.20 million yuan and -2.90% [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse) decreased from 6.93 million yuan/ton to 6.80 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.13 million yuan and -1.88% [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine) decreased from 7.42 million yuan/ton to 7.37 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.05 million yuan and -0.67% [5]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 96,705 tons to 95,843 tons, a change of -862 tons and -0.89% [5]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased from 3.32 million yuan/ton to 3.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.03 million yuan and -0.90% [5]. - The price of lithium cobalt oxide increased from 21.10 million yuan/ton to 21.30 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.20 million yuan and 0.95% [5]. - The price of ternary material (811) decreased from 14.95 million yuan/ton to 14.75 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.20 million yuan and -1.34% [5]. - The price of ternary material (622) decreased from 13.30 million yuan/ton to 13.15 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.15 million yuan and -1.13% [5]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of April 25, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 31,792 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 72,280 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 217,300 lots [7]. - As of April 25, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,305 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from the previous period. Domestic production remains at a relatively low level, but with the end of maintenance in some lithium salt plants in May, domestic supply may be marginally corrected. With the ramping - up of northern salt lake resources and limited demand growth, the new supply will be internally replaced, and the cost center of lithium salt is expected to move down [7]. - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Among them, 12,700 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%; 4,646 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. Chile's lithium carbonate exports in March were about 23,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 8%/37%. Among them, 16,600 tons were exported to China, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 3%/38%. In the future, the scale of lithium salt imports from Argentina is relatively stable, and the increase in domestic resources from Argentine salt lakes is limited in the short term. The main change in imports comes from Chile's shipments. The significant increase in Chile's lithium salt shipments to China in March may push up the domestic lithium salt supply scale in May [8]. - In March, about 534,500 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%. Among them, 307,700 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month increase of 32.6% and a year - on - year increase of 30.5%; 51,800 tons were imported from South Africa, a month - on - month decrease of 65.3%; 58,400 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month decrease of 39.9%; 85,100 tons were imported from Nigeria, a month - on - month increase of 82.8% [8]. - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of April 25, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,996 tons, with an operating rate of 59.27%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 38,378 tons, an increase of 60 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,600 tons, with an operating rate of 45.02%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,775 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous period. During the reporting period, the cathode material prices changed little. Most downstream enterprises have completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and when the price broke through this time, downstream spot price - fixing during trading was more cautious. The spot market had only rigid - demand purchases, and the price stimulus to material manufacturers' purchases was less than before. Currently, some material manufacturers may start a second price - increase negotiation with battery manufacturers, but the price - increase results may still show quality differentiation [9][10]. - From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% compared with the same period in April last year and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 53.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. In early April, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down significantly, dragging down the annual consumption growth rate. Under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics, the new energy sales - to - production ratio is at a low level, and the post - holiday rebound is less than in previous periods. The weak resilience of demand has led to a mismatch between vehicle manufacturers' production scheduling and sales expectations, and the inventory pressure of finished vehicles persists. Short - term consumption may depend on the effectiveness of the auto show in the second half of the month. Currently, China and the EU have started negotiations on electric vehicle prices, which will replace the tariff plan with a minimum pricing plan. However, regardless of the pricing result, the competitiveness of domestic brands in the European market will weaken marginally, and external demand for exports is not optimistic. Technologically, there have been many breakthroughs recently. CATL announced that it will launch a new sodium battery at the end of 2025. At the same time, Great Wall Motor and Guoxuan High - tech have both made progress in solid - state batteries [11]. - As of April 25, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 95,843 tons, a decrease of about - 862 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 32,560 tons, an increase of 2,860 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 63,283 tons, a decrease of 3,722 tons from the previous period. Overall, after excluding the change in exchange inventory, the market inventory is still decreasing, showing a divergence from the significant increase in factory inventory, indicating that after the second price breakdown, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and they mainly focus on digesting existing inventory [12]. This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook is marginally weakening, and lithium prices may experience a second bottoming. The supply in May will increase due to the resumption of production in some lithium salt plants and the expected increase in imports from Chile. On the demand side, the high - frequency sales growth rate of new energy vehicles has weakened, the boost from the auto show was less than expected, the sales - to - production ratio is low, and the consumption is entering the seasonal off - season. Technically, the lithium price's previous correction was less than the previous high, and long - positions left after the short - covering rebound. The increase in open interest slowed down while trading volume increased significantly [4][13]. Group 4: Industry News - The largest hard - rock lithium mine in Asia obtained a mining license. The Verasto lithium polymetallic mine in Keshiketeng Banner, Chifeng City, is the largest hard - rock lithium mine in Asia and the largest single - tin mine north of the Yangtze River. On April 21, the Ministry of Natural Resources officially approved and granted the mining license to Inner Mongolia Verasto Mining Co., Ltd., marking the implementation stage of lithium and tin resource development and utilization in Chifeng City. The Verasto lithium polymetallic mine mainly contains valuable metal elements such as lithium, tin, tungsten, and zinc, with characteristics of shallow burial, thick ore bodies, large resource reserves, and high grades. The total proven ore reserves are 55.27 million tons, including 41.98 million tons of Li2O (lithium oxide) ore, with a metal content of 576,000 tons and an average grade of 1.37% [14]. - CATL launched the second - generation Shenxing ultra - fast charging battery. On April 21, CATL released the second - generation Shenxing ultra - fast charging battery, a lithium iron phosphate battery. According to CATL, the battery has a range of 800 kilometers, a peak charging rate close to 12C, and a peak charging power of more than 1.3 megawatts, enabling "5 - minute charging for a range of over 520 kilometers" [14]. - Hunan Yueneng plans to invest in a 20,000 - ton lithium battery recycling project. Recently, the official website of Xiangxiang City Government in Hunan Province released the environmental impact approval decision and publicity of the "Annual 20,000 - ton Waste Lithium - Ion Battery Disassembly and Recycling Project of Hunan Yueneng Circular Technology Co., Ltd." [14]. - The second - phase project of a 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate production base started. Recently, under the strategic background of deepening new energy industry cooperation between China and Indonesia, the second - phase project of the 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate cathode material production base of Longpan Technology's (603906) Indonesian lithium source was launched in Semarang, Indonesia [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 1.19% to 1059.25 cents per bushel, the soybean meal 09 contract rose 0.33% to 3031 yuan per ton, the South China soybean meal spot price rose 23.4% to 3850 yuan per ton, the rapeseed meal 09 contract rose 3.35% to 2684 yuan per ton, and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 8.82% to 2590 yuan per ton [5][8]. - During the week, the spot price soared due to slow - moving soybean customs clearance policies, lower - than - expected oil mill crushing rates, low downstream inventory, and pre - holiday stocking demand. The supply - tight situation was exacerbated, and the spot price continued to rise. The futures market rebounded supported by the spot price but was pressured by the expectation of post - holiday supply relaxation, limiting its upside. The U.S. soybean planting progress was slightly faster than the same period, and the weather was conducive to sowing. Supported by the strengthening of U.S. soybean oil and the weakening of the U.S. dollar, U.S. soybeans closed higher [5][8]. - The precipitation in U.S. soybean - producing areas decreased, which was beneficial for sowing. Attention should be paid to the first release of the 2025/26 U.S. soybean balance sheet in the May USDA report. U.S. soybeans are in a low - level oscillation. The slow soybean clearance continues to affect supply recovery, and the supply shortage in the short term is difficult to ease, so the spot price may remain strong. However, as May Day approaches, the market expects post - holiday supply to be loose, and the futures market may weaken after the rebound [5][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 4/25 | 4/18 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1059.25 | 1046.75 | 12.50 | 1.19% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 447.00 | 432.00 | 15.00 | 3.47% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 448.00 | 448.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Futures Crushing Profit | 48.10 | - 24.76 | 72.87 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3031.00 | 3021.00 | 10.00 | 0.33% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2684.00 | 2597.00 | 87.00 | 3.35% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 347.00 | 424.00 | - 77.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3840.00 | 3200.00 | 640.00 | 20.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3850.00 | 3120.00 | 730.00 | 23.40% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | 819.00 | 99.00 | 720.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [6] Market Analysis and Outlook - **U.S. Soybean Situation**: As of April 20, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 8%, slightly faster than the market expectation of 7%, the previous week's 2%, last year's 7%, and the five - year average of 5%. As of April 22, about 21% of U.S. soybean - producing areas were affected by drought, down from 23% the previous week and compared with 20% last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, precipitation in U.S. soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher than the average, and the temperature will be higher than normal. After May 1, precipitation in the Midwest will decrease, which is beneficial for sowing [9]. - **U.S. Soybean Export and Sales**: As of April 17, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 550,000 tons, in line with market expectations. The net sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market year increased by 277,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 47.06 million tons, with a sales progress of 94.7%. The net sales of U.S. soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were 2,000 tons, and China's cumulative purchases were 22.34 million tons [9][10]. - **Domestic Inventory and Consumption**: As of April 18, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 4.2591 million tons, an increase from the previous week and last year; the soybean meal inventory was 125,500 tons, a decrease from the previous week and last year; the unexecuted contracts were 2.8048 million tons, a decrease from the previous week and last year; the national port soybean inventory was 4.705 million tons, an increase from the previous week but a decrease from last year. As of April 25, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in the country was 199,800 tons, a decrease from the previous week; the average daily pick - up volume was 115,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week; the main oil mill crushing volume was 1.4122 million tons, an increase from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 4.35 days, a decrease from the previous week [11][12] Industry News - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to be 17.9 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's estimate but a 7.8% increase from the previous year. The soybean output is estimated to be 49 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the 2023/24 season [13]. - A commodity research institution has lowered the forecast of U.S. soybean production in the 2025/26 season by 1% to 11.5 million tons, with an expected planting area of 84 million acres, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year [14]. - Ukraine's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 3.2 million tons, the same as the previous survey. The future weather may pose risks to rapeseed growth [14]. - The soybean production forecast of Paraná State in Brazil has been raised to 2.111 million tons [15]. - As of the week of April 20, Canada's rapeseed export volume decreased by 31.8% to 140,500 tons. From August 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, the export volume increased by 72.3% compared with the same period of the previous year [15]. - The U.S. Advanced Biofuels Association (ABFA) has proposed to the EPA to raise the Renewable Fuel Obligation (RVO) in 2026 to 5.75 billion gallons [15]