Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US economic soft data shows signs of weakening, with the labor market remaining stable overall. The Fed maintains the current policy rate but emphasizes future economic uncertainty, raising inflation expectations and lowering economic growth forecasts. There are stagflation risks, and macro - pressure persists [3]. - Fundamental situation: Nickel ore prices stay high, with most Indonesian ferronickel plants in a cost - upside - down state, and some plan to cut production. Traditional terminals remain weak, stainless - steel prices decline, suppressing steel mills' restocking. New - energy consumption performs well, and overall demand is slightly weak. Supply shows signs of narrowing, but the export window is open, keeping supply at a relatively high level [3]. - Future outlook: With the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict and the potential rise in global crude oil prices, US inflation pressure may increase. Fundamentals may be revised, mainly driven by production - cut expectations due to low corporate profits. Consumption may remain stable, with traditional sectors weak and the new - energy sector potentially having an increase. Nickel prices may rebound slightly [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Summary - SHFE nickel price decreased from 119,690 yuan/ton to 118,280 yuan/ton, a drop of 1,410 yuan/ton; LME nickel price fell from 15,069 dollars/ton to 15,011 dollars/ton, a decrease of 58 dollars/ton [5]. - LME inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 681 tons to 21,669 tons [5]. - Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,650 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton [5]. - High - nickel pig iron average price decreased from 947 yuan/nickel point to 942 yuan/nickel point [5]. - Stainless - steel inventory increased from 91.7 tons to 92.6 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons [5]. 2. Market Review - **Nickel ore**: Philippine nickel ore prices rose, while Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices declined. The acceptance of high - priced ore by downstream is weak, and July pre - sales transactions are scarce [6]. - **Ferronickel**: High - nickel pig iron prices dropped. Chinese ferronickel production in May increased, and imports decreased. Indonesian ferronickel production in May increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. Ferronickel may face the most pressure in the industry chain, with high upstream costs and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Nickel sulfate**: Battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices decreased. June production is expected to decline year - on - year and month - on - month. Ternary material production increased. Downstream inventory decreased, and upstream inventory increased. Nickel sulfate prices may continue to be weak [8]. - **Macro and fundamentals**: US economic soft data weakened, with consumption and output growth rates declining. The Fed maintains the current interest rate policy but raises inflation expectations and lowers economic growth forecasts. In terms of supply, domestic production capacity is stable in June, but smelter production schedules decline. In terms of consumption, new - energy vehicle sales in the first half of June increased year - on - year, but the growth rate in the second week weakened. Inventory shows a mixed trend, with LME inventory increasing and SHFE inventory decreasing [8][9][10]. 3. Industry News - Indonesia lowers the reference price for the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade in June by about 1.19% compared to the first - phase [14]. - Indonesia plans to punish a nickel park suspected of violating environmental regulations, which may affect some major nickel suppliers [14]. - Toyota Tsusho and LG Energy Solution plan to establish a joint venture for automotive battery recycling in North America, aiming to recycle valuable metals from battery waste [14]. 4. Relevant Charts The report provides charts on domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18].

锌周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 宏微观偏弱 锌价低位震荡 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价横盘震荡。宏观面看，美联储连续第四 次会议按兵不动，预计今年降息两次，符合预期，但将明 年的降息次数减少了一次。美国直接下场，以伊冲突升级， 市场避险情绪抬升及降息路径偏鹰，美元偏强，压制金属。 国内陆家嘴论坛未有超预期表现，5 月经济数据多数下 行，以旧换新支撑消费走高，持续性存疑。基本面看，5 月锌精矿进口符合预期，全球矿山稳步输出，加工费仍有 上涨空间。炼厂生产积极性尚可，供应回升。进口窗口关 闭后，5 月进口量低于预期，但国内产量恢复弥补进口缺 失量。需求端看，抢出口效应递减，5 月镀锌板出口环比 降幅较大，且仍又回落压力。近期受梅雨季及高位天气拖 累渐显，消费边际走弱，同时山东地区环保检查，镀锌企 业开工回落；五金汽配订单走弱，叠加部分企业因设备原 因产量减少，压铸锌合金企业开工回落；企业复工，氧化 锌开工率微增。终端需求回落，初端企业开工下滑态势不 改，且目前原料库存较高，补库动力不足，锌锭社会库存 小幅增加。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t ...

Report Title - "Bean Meal Weekly Report" [1] Report Date - June 23, 2025 [3] Core Viewpoint - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to close at 1067.25 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.12%; the September bean meal contract rose 26 to close at 3067 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.85%; the South China bean meal spot price rose 40 to close at 2920 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.39%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 5 to close at 2679 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.19%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 10 to close at 2570 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.39% [4][7] - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated at a high level during the week. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the volatile and stronger oil prices provided support, and the impact of the U.S. biodiesel policy proposal was gradually digested. The weather in the U.S. soybean producing areas was generally good, providing no driving factors. The U.S. soybean crushing volume in May was lower than market expectations. Under multiple factors, the outer market fluctuated near the resistance level. The domestic oil mill crushing start - up rate continued to rise, increasing the bean meal supply. With no purchase of soybeans for the fourth quarter yet, the expected tight supply in the distant future supported the Dalian bean meal to fluctuate strongly [4][7] - The good weather in the U.S. soybean producing areas provides no driving factors. Concerns about Sino - U.S. tariffs remain, and the domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The risk of soybean shortage will also support the Brazilian soybean premium. The U.S. soybeans may fluctuate and adjust. The oil mill crushing start - up rate continues to rise, and the bean meal is in the process of inventory accumulation. However, the terminal demand is strong, and the feed enterprise pick - up volume is at a high level in the same period. With the domestic supply tending to be loose, the spot supply is also becoming loose, and the basis is generally weak. Currently, it is suppressed by factors such as weather and loose spot supply, and at the same time, it is supported by the expected tight supply in the distant future. The Dalian bean meal may fluctuate and adjust [4][12] Market Data | Contract | June 20 | June 13 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1067.25 | 1068.50 | - 1.25 | - 0.12% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 467.00 | 454.00 | 13.00 | 2.86% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 467.00 | 453.00 | 14.00 | 3.09% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Disk | 59.99 | 133.72 | - 73.72 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 3067.00 | 3041.00 | 26.00 | 0.85% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2679.00 | 2674.00 | 5.00 | 0.19% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 388.00 | 367.00 | 21.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2920.00 | 2860.00 | 60.00 | 2.10% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2920.00 | 2880.00 | 40.00 | 1.39% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 147.00 | - 161.00 | 14.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook U.S. Soybean Conditions - As of the week of June 15, 2025, the excellent - good rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, the previous week was 68%, and the same period last year was 70%. The planting progress was 93%, lower than the market expectation of 95%, the previous week was 90%, and the same period last year was 92%, with a five - year average of 94%. The emergence rate was 84%, the previous week was 75%, the same period last year was 80%, and the five - year average was 83%. As of the week of June 17, 2025, about 13% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the previous week was 13%, and the same period last year was 2% [8] - As of the week of June 12, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 21.58 tons, in line with expectations (the previous market forecast was 17.5 - 45 tons), the previous week's revised value was 55.86 tons, and the initial value was 54.7 tons. The soybean export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. So far in this crop year, the cumulative U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 4541 tons, compared with 4088 tons in the same period of the previous year [8] - As of the week of June 12, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current year increased by 54 tons, the previous week was 6.1 tons. The cumulative export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 4913 tons, with a sales progress of 97.6%, compared with 95.8% in the same period last year. The net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in that week was 7.5 tons, and the cumulative sales volume in this season was 119.3 tons, compared with 111.8 tons in the same period last year [9] - The NOPA report showed that the U.S. soybean crushing volume in May was 192.829 million bushels, a 1.4% increase from April's 190.266 million bushels and a 5% increase from May 2024's 183.625 million bushels. As of May 31, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member units dropped to 1.373 billion pounds, a 10.1% decrease from the end of April's 1.527 billion pounds and a 20.3% decrease from the same period last year's 1.724 billion pounds [9] - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit (spread between soybeans, soybean oil, and bean meal) was 1.87 US dollars per bushel, the previous week was 1.49 US dollars per bushel; the truck - board price of soybean oil in central Illinois was 47.36 cents per pound, the previous week was 46.23 cents per pound; the wholesale price of 48% bean meal in central Illinois was 288.25 US dollars per short - ton, the previous week was 290.85 US dollars per short - ton; the truck price of No. 1 yellow soybeans in central Illinois was 10.42 US dollars per bushel, the previous week was 10.73 US dollars per bushel [10] South American Soybean Conditions - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to reach 14.37 million tons, previously expected to be 14.08 million tons [10] - The Buenos Aires Exchange reported that as of the week of June 18, 2025, the soybean harvesting progress in Argentina was 96.5%, the previous week was 93.2%, and the same period last year was 98% [10] Domestic Conditions - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.996 million tons, a decrease of 106,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 474,100 tons from the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 410,000 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 584,900 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.6056 million tons, a decrease of 824,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 286,400 tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 7.427 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 352,700 tons from the same period last year [11] - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the daily average weekly trading volume of national bean meal was 392,450 tons, including 87,990 tons of spot trading and 304,460 tons of forward trading. The previous week's daily average trading volume was 347,700 tons; the daily average weekly pick - up volume of bean meal was 208,980 tons, the previous week was 194,760 tons; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.3842 million tons, the previous week was 2.2587 million tons; the bean meal inventory days of feed enterprises was 7.74 days, the previous week was 6.83 days [11] Industry News 1. Secex data showed that Brazil exported 6,980,666.88 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of June, with a daily average export volume of 698,066.69 tons, roughly the same as the daily average export volume of 697,980.60 tons in June last year. The total export volume in June last year was 13,959,612.09 tons [13] 2. According to foreign media reports, the Mato Grosso State Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) announced that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso State from June 9 - 13 was 515.08 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 558.66 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous week. The bean meal price in that state was 1619.60 Brazilian reals per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5670.10 Brazilian reals per ton [13] 3. According to foreign media reports, the French Ministry of Agriculture predicted that the winter barley and rapeseed production in France in 2025 will strongly rebound compared with last year's rainfall - affected production. In the first forecast of this year's harvest, the French Ministry of Agriculture said that the winter rapeseed production in France in 2025 will reach 4.2 million tons, a 9.4% increase from 2024 [13] 4. According to foreign news, industry analysts said that the U.S. soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 118 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in the June supply - demand report that the U.S. soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 118.1 million tons. A previous survey showed that analysts on average expected the U.S. soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season to be 52.5 bushels, and the production to be 4.34 billion bushels. It is expected that the U.S. soybean planting area this year will be 84 million acres, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year and 500,000 acres higher than the pre - estimated value announced in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's March planting intention report [14] 5. According to foreign news, industry analysts said that the soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast. The weather forecast shows that it will be drier in the next few days in that country. Although the recent weather has been humid, the crop harvest season is almost over. The current pre - estimated values of soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/25 season by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the Rosario Grain Exchange are 50.3 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively [14] 6. According to foreign news, the European Vegetable Oil and Protein Meal Industry Federation (FEDIOL) said that in May, the rapeseed crushing volume in the 27 EU countries + the UK was 1.318 million tons, compared with 1.519 million tons in April; the soybean crushing volume was 1.332 million tons, compared with 1.328 million tons in April. The total oilseed crushing volume in Europe in May was 3.053 million tons, higher than 3.179 million tons in April. The crushing volume of enterprises participating in FEDIOL accounts for 80% of the total crushing volume of soybeans, sunflower seeds, and rapeseed in the 27 EU countries and the UK (including FEDIOL members and non - FEDIOL members) [15] 7. According to foreign media reports, analysts pointed out that the weather forecast shows that there will be rainfall in the Canadian prairie area, which will help relieve the drought. Currently, about 40% of the prairie area is experiencing drought. Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the sowing area report on June 27. Its March report showed that the rapeseed planting area was 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from the 2024/25 season [15] 8. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that the predicted total cost of U.S. soybean production in 2025 is 639.15 US dollars per acre, and the predicted total cost in 2026 is 650.34 US dollars per acre [15] Related Charts The report includes multiple charts, such as the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rate trends, regional crushing profits, bean meal main contract trends, and various inventory and trading volume - related charts [16 - 55]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the Fed kept the June interest rate unchanged. The dot - plot after the meeting showed that there might be two more rate cuts in 2025, but Powell's speech was hawkish, and the market's expectation of rapid rate cuts was dashed. The Israel - Iran conflict continued to escalate, and the geopolitical situation led to a decline in market risk appetite. In China, the May consumption data maintained high growth, but its sustainability was questionable, and investment and export data were under pressure. The economy still needed policy support. Fundamentally, the situation of high molten aluminum and low ingot casting remained unchanged, and the supply of goods in the spot market was still limited. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots continued to decline to 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last Thursday; the inventory of aluminum rods was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. On the consumption side, the rapid rise of aluminum prices was of questionable sustainability, and downstream consumers were obviously hesitant to make purchases due to high prices. According to SMM, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% last week [3][8]. - The continuous escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict and Iran's claim to block the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend have increased market risk aversion, but it is also expected to increase the transportation cost of bauxite. Trump's trade policy still has great uncertainty, and the negative impact of the tariff war on the economic fundamentals is still emerging, so there are certain macro - concerns. Fundamentally, according to the three - party research platform, the proportion of molten aluminum in China still increased slightly in June, so the ingot casting volume continued to decline. The limited supply and short - term low inventory are expected to continue, which will support the B - structure of the SHFE aluminum futures market and boost the unilateral price preference. However, high aluminum prices and the seasonal off - peak consumption season limit consumption, and the upward space for aluminum prices is restricted [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2,503 yuan/ton on June 13, 2025, to 2,561.5 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, an increase of 58.5 yuan/ton. The price of SHFE aluminum continuous third contract increased from 20,060 dollars/ton to 20,170 dollars/ton, an increase of 110 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.0 to 7.9. The LME spot premium increased from - 0.42 dollars/ton to 11.16 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 353,225 tons to 342,850 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased from 46,193 tons to 51,129 tons. The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum increased from 20,422 yuan/ton to 20,726 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from - 230 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of Southern Reserve spot aluminum increased from 20,262 yuan/ton to 20,570 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased from 160 yuan/ton to 156 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased from 46 tons to 44.9 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 16,965.29 yuan/ton to 16,833.67 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 3,456.71 yuan/ton to 3,892.34 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20,726 yuan/ton, an increase of 304 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of Southern Reserve spot aluminum was 20,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 308 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - The Fed announced its June interest rate decision, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, which was in line with market expectations. The Fed said that the uncertainty about the outlook had decreased but was still at a high level. It lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. The Fed's dot - plot showed that it was expected to cut interest rates twice by a total of 50 basis points in 2025, consistent with the March expectation, but only 25 basis points in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 50 basis points. Fed Chairman Powell said it was appropriate to maintain the current interest rate level. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of this year. US industrial output in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the second decline in three months. US new housing starts in May decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.256 million units, and building permits decreased slightly to 1.393 million units, both hitting five - year lows. US President Trump approved an attack plan against Iran but did not issue a final order for the time being to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. Iran launched a new round of missile attacks against Israel. The EU is trying to reach a trade agreement with the US similar to the one between the UK and the US to resolve some tariff issues and avoid immediate counter - measures against the US. The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0%, one step away from returning to the previous negative interest rate state. The Norwegian Central Bank announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut to 4.25%, the first interest rate adjustment since the pandemic [6]. - On the consumption side, according to SMM, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% month - on - month. The downstream aluminum processing sector as a whole entered the off - season, but the operating rates of the aluminum cable and primary aluminum alloy sectors still showed some resilience. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing may decrease slightly by 0.4 percentage points next week. In terms of inventory, according to SMM, on June 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last Thursday; the inventory of aluminum rods was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday [7]. 3. Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, the Israel - Iran conflict and macro - economic factors, along with fundamental supply and demand conditions, are considered. The short - term low inventory is expected to continue, supporting the B - structure of the SHFE aluminum futures market and boosting the unilateral price preference, but high prices and the off - peak consumption season limit the upward space for aluminum prices [8]. 4. Industry News - According to customs data, in May 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 223,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 41.4%. From January to May, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.0575 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. In May 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 190,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.5% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. From January to May, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 990,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [9]. - According to IAI data, in the first four months of 2025, the primary aluminum production in Europe (including Russia) increased by 2.2% year - on - year, from 2.26 million tons to 2.31 million tons. This was due to continuous growth in almost every month except February. The production in February this year was 537,000 tons, compared with 540,000 tons in February 2024. The production growth rate in April this year was significantly higher than the same period last year, which was the key to the overall growth. Among them, the production in January increased by 3.3% year - on - year to 597,000 tons, compared with a moderate growth rate of 0.7% in the same period in 2024; the year - on - year growth rate in March was 2.9%, compared with 0.9% in March 2024; the year - on - year growth in April was 3%, exceeding the 1.45% growth rate in April 2024 [9]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous third contract, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium (0 - 3), SHFE aluminum current - first spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of physical trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [10][11][17][18]

工业硅周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 供需弱平衡，工业硅反弹有限 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周工业硅反弹有限，主因全球经济增速存在下行预期， 工业品市场情绪偏弱，光伏供给侧改革令行业进入收缩周 期。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复至7成左右,川滇地区 丰水期临近开工率回升，内蒙和甘肃产量低位反弹，但供 应端增量有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅价格持续走跌拉晶 厂库存高压难解，7月初 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250618 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：海外聚焦今晚 FOMC，国内债市博弈央行购债 海外方面，美国 5 月零售销售环比录得-0.9%，弱于预期并创下两年最大跌幅，主要汽 车、加油站、杂货和建材类拖累，表明此前关税预期引发的提前消费热潮消退，关注薪资对 消费的支撑力度。以伊战争进入第五天，特朗普敦促伊朗"无条件投降"、警告美国"耐心 将尽"，市场风险偏好遭受打击，美股下挫，美元指数回升至 98.8，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.37%，金价窄幅波动走平，油价涨超 4%，铜价小幅收跌。GDPNow 最新预测显示，美国 二季度 GDP 环比折年率或达 3.5%，显示经济在关税扰动下仍具韧性，关注今晚 FOMC 会 议的经济预测摘要（SEP）及利率点阵图。 国内方面，A 股震荡收低，两市成交额维持在 1.2 万亿上，红利风格相对抗跌，科创 50、 微盘股、北证 50 跌幅较大，稳定币、能源、海运等板块领涨，在内生修复动能偏弱、短期 宽松政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT US soybean July contract rose 10.5 to close at 1068.5 cents per bushel, up 0.99%; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 31 to close at 3041 yuan per ton, up 1.03%; the South China soybean meal spot rose 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, up 2.13%; the rapeseed meal 09 contract rose 66 to close at 2674 yuan per ton, up 2.53%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot rose 80 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, up 3.23% [2][5]. - The US soybean fluctuated and declined during the week and then closed sharply higher. The USDA report did not adjust the US soybean balance sheet. The soybean production in Brazil and Argentina in the 2024/2025 season remained unchanged. The precipitation forecast in the Midwest increased, the weather in the production areas was good, and the US soybean export sales were lower than expected, causing the US soybean to decline. On Friday, the US Environmental Protection Agency proposed to increase the future biodiesel usage, and the US soybean oil hit the daily limit, driving the US soybean to rise sharply. The China - US economic and trade consultation meeting ended, and the optimistic trade sentiment boosted. Long - positions continued to increase, but the upward momentum weakened. There is an expected supply shortage of US soybeans in the domestic fourth quarter, which supports the prices [2][5]. - The precipitation forecast in the US soybean production areas increases and is higher than the average level, which is beneficial to the early growth and development of soybeans, and the weather is normal. China and the US have reached a framework agreement, waiting for details. China has not purchased new - season US soybeans, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expected supply shortage. The US biodiesel policy exceeds expectations and proposes to restrict imports, and the US soybean oil hitting the daily limit supports the sharp rise of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal inventory continues to rise, and the spot supply is still available. With the expected supply shortage in the far - month, the downward support for the Dalian soybean meal is strong. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and strengthen [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 6/13 | 6/6 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1068.50 | 1058.00 | 10.50 | 0.99% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 454.00 | 447.00 | 7.00 | 1.57% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 453.00 | 457.00 | - 4.00 | - 0.88% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Disk | 129.38 | 81.46 | 47.93 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3041.00 | 3010.00 | 31.00 | 1.03% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2674.00 | 2608.00 | 66.00 | 2.53% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 367.00 | 402.00 | - 35.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2860.00 | 2840.00 | 20.00 | 0.70% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2880.00 | 2820.00 | 60.00 | 2.13% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 161.00 | - 190.00 | 29.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The USDA report shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 295 million bushels, the same as the May expectation. The soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/2025 season remains at 49 million tons, and that in Brazil remains at 169 million tons. The report is overall neutral [6]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations, up from 67% the previous week and lower than 72% in the same period last year. The planting progress was 90%, lower than the expected 91%, up from 84% the previous week and higher than 86% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 88%. The emergence rate was 75%, up from 63% the previous week, higher than 68% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 72%. As of the week ending June 10, 2025, about 13% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, down from 16% the previous week and higher than 1% in the same period last year [6]. - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547,000 tons, higher than the market forecast of 155,000 - 400,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 45.19 million tons, compared with 40.54 million tons in the same period of the previous crop year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the current year increased by 61,000 tons, compared with 194,000 tons the previous week. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season is 48.71 million tons, with a sales progress of 96.8%, compared with 94.6% in the same period last year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week was 58,000 tons, and the cumulative sales volume in this season is 1.118 million tons, compared with 1.04 million tons in the same period last year. China did not purchase old - season or new - season US soybeans in the current week, and the cumulative purchase volume of US soybeans by China in the 2024/2025 season remains at 22.48 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending June 6, 2025, the gross profit of US soybean crushing was 1.49 US dollars per bushel, down from 1.9 US dollars per bushel the previous week. The FOB price of soybean oil in central Illinois was 46.23 cents per pound, down from 47.97 cents per pound the previous week. The wholesale price of 48% soybean meal in central Illinois was 290.85 US dollars per short ton, up from 290.15 US dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck price of No. 1 yellow soybeans in central Illinois was 10.73 US dollars per bushel, up from 10.51 US dollars per bushel the previous week [8]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that the Brazilian soybean export volume in June will reach 14.08 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 12.55 million tons, compared with 13.83 million tons in the same period last year. The sales progress of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season in Mato Grosso state is 76.02%, compared with 77.9% in the same period last year. The sales progress of the 2025/2026 season soybean crop is 14.15%, lower than the five - year average of 25% and 16.51% in the same period last year [8]. - According to the report of the Buenos Aires Exchange, as of the week ending June 11, 2025, the soybean harvest progress in Argentina was 93.2%, up from 88.7% the previous week and lower than 96% in the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending June 6, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week and 1.2088 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 507,000 tons from the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 5.4305 million tons, an increase of 1.7376 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 10 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 7.462 million tons, an increase of 408,000 tons from the previous week and 1.0591 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national soybean meal was 347,700 tons, including 90,620 tons of spot trading and 257,100 tons of forward trading, compared with 119,400 tons the previous week. The daily average picking - up volume of soybean meal was 194,760 tons, down from 201,200 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, up from 2.2446 million tons the previous week. The soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 6.83 days, up from 6.31 days the previous week [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that the soybean production in Argentina in the 2024/25 season will be 48.5 million tons. As of the end of May, the soybean harvest rate was 80.7%, and the early - sown soybean harvest was 86% complete. Due to recent precipitation, the soybean harvest in the northern part of Buenos Aires was the slowest. The estimated soybean yield is 3,090 kg per hectare (46.0 bushels per acre), with a yield range of 1,200 - 3,740 kg per hectare (17.8 - 55.7 bushels per acre) [11]. - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association maintains the forecast of Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season at 169.7 million tons, the soybean export volume at 108.2 million tons, the soybean oil production at 11.45 million tons, the soybean crushing volume at 57.5 million tons, the soybean oil export volume at 1.4 million tons, the soybean meal production at 44.1 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume at 23.6 million tons [11]. - The sales rate of the 2025/26 season soybean crop in Mato Grosso state has reached 14.15%, lower than the five - year average of about 25% and 16.51% in the same period last year. The report estimates that the soybean production in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season may reach 47.18 million tons. The sales rate of the 2024/25 season soybean crop in Mato Grosso state has reached 76%, lower than 77.90% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 82.39% [12]. - Affected by recent favorable rainfall, the estimated rapeseed production in the 27 EU countries and the UK in the 2025/26 season remains at 20.4 million tons, but the drought risk in Poland still exists. According to the short - term weather forecast, different weather patterns will appear in the next 10 days. Eastern and central Europe will face colder temperatures, while western/southern Europe will remain warm. Rainfall is expected only in Spain and the UK, and the rest of the countries are expected to return to a dry weather pattern, increasing drought concerns [12]. - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's National Commodity Supply Company estimates that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2024/25 season will reach 169.6058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.8845 million tons (14.8%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.264 million tons (0.8%). The sown area is expected to reach 47.6198 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.4702 million hectares (3.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 7,100 hectares. The estimated soybean yield is 3.56 tons per hectare, a year - on - year increase of 360.7 kg per hectare (11.3%) and a month - on - month increase of 26 kg per hectare (0.7%) [13]. - A consulting agency estimates that the rapeseed production in Canada in the 2025/26 season will be 18.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 16.5 - 20.1 million tons, almost the same as the previous estimate of 18 million tons (17.2 - 18.9 million tons). In the past two weeks, the main rapeseed - producing areas in the southern prairies of Canada have observed a precipitation shortage of about 33 mm, and the temperature is higher than the average level. These conditions have raised concerns about the early soil moisture conditions of rapeseed. Looking forward, the weather forecast for the next 10 days shows that the southern prairie region of Canada will have mild temperatures, and moderate rainfall is expected in Saskatchewan and Alberta, which may help relieve the current drought and support crop growth. In Manitoba, the drought is expected to continue, with a possible precipitation shortage of 35 mm [14].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply side shows that the overseas shipment volume rebounded last week, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years. On the demand side, steel mills' furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season have increased recently, leading to a continuous decline in molten iron production. With the steel demand entering the off - season, the molten iron output is decreasing while the supply is strong [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 2969 yuan/ton, a decline of 6 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.20%. The total trading volume was 8652225 lots, and the total open interest was 3086173 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3082 yuan/ton, a decline of 10 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.32%. The total trading volume was 2922804 lots, and the total open interest was 1566756 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 704.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.5 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.49%. The total trading volume was 1262009 lots, and the total open interest was 716699 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 774.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.0 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.51%. The total trading volume was 6009851 lots, and the total open interest was 695773 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1349.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.0 yuan, and a decline rate of 0.07%. The total trading volume was 158036 lots, and the total open interest was 56573 lots [2]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the iron ore futures showed a fluctuating trend. The molten iron output decreased slightly. The positive news from the Sino - US negotiations had limited boost to the market. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 719 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 613 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - grade PB powder and low - grade Super Special powder was 106 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, steel mills' furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season increased. The molten iron output continued to decline. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.36 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.05 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.66 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 241.61 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.30 tons [1][4]. - On the supply side, the overseas shipment volume rebounded last week, reaching the highest level in the same period of the past three years. The global iron ore shipment volume was 3510.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.4 tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2919.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50.6 tons. The total shipment volume from Australia was 2169.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 249.3 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1892.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 392.2 tons. The total shipment volume from Brazil was 749.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 198.7 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14503.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 102.83 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 315.25 tons, a decrease of 13.81 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - On June 6, the Western Range Iron Ore Project jointly developed by Rio Tinto Group and Baowu Resources was officially put into operation. The project can produce up to 25 million tons of iron ore per year, with a total production capacity of 130 million tons and an average iron grade of about 62% [9]. - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK. The two sides had a frank and in - depth dialogue, exchanged in - depth views on economic and trade issues of concern, reached a principle consensus on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns [9]. - On June 13, 2025, the Israeli Air Force launched air strikes on dozens of targets related to Iran's nuclear program and other military facilities in Iran and named the operation "Lion's Strength". The Israeli military said that Iran had enough enriched uranium to manufacture multiple bombs within a few days, so action was needed to address this "imminent threat" [9]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes a series of charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis trends, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and other aspects [8][10][12].

棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 美生柴政策提振 棕榈油或震荡走强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 | 合约 | | 6 月 13 | 日 | 6 月 | 6 日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT 豆油主连 | | 51.19 | | 47.43 | | 3.76 | 7.93% | 美分/磅 | | BMD 马棕油主连 | | 3927 | | 3917 | | 10 | 0.26% | 林 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The macro - environment is unstable due to uncertainties in Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's policy inclination. Fundamentally, due to less aluminum ingot casting, limited arrivals, low social and exchange warehouse inventories, and approaching delivery, the near - month futures is strong, which is expected to drive the far - month futures to be strong and deepen the B structure. After delivery, the tight market situation is expected to improve, and aluminum prices need to return to rationality [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2451.5 yuan/ton to 2503 yuan/ton, an increase of 51.5 yuan/ton; SHFE aluminum continuous third contract rose from 19915 dollars/ton to 20060 dollars/ton, an increase of 145 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.1 to 8.0; LME spot premium increased from - 4.91 dollars/ton to - 0.42 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.5 dollars/ton; LME aluminum inventory decreased from 363850 tons to 353225 tons; SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 47792 tons to 46193 tons; spot Yangtze River average price rose from 20217.5 yuan/ton to 20422 yuan/ton, an increase of 204.5 yuan/ton; spot premium decreased from 80 yuan/ton to - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan/ton; South Reserve spot average price rose from 20080 yuan/ton to 20262 yuan/ton, an increase of 182 yuan/ton; Shanghai - Guangdong aluminum price difference increased from 137.5 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.5 yuan/ton; aluminum ingot social inventory decreased from 50.4 tons to 46 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons; electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased from 16980.03 yuan/ton to 16965.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.7 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased from 3237.47 yuan/ton to 3456.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.2 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Macro: US May CPI and PPI data were lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of cooling inflation pressure, and the market increased bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to fall rapidly. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, easing trade tensions and boosting market risk appetite. China's May CPI and PPI data showed different trends. The total value of China's goods trade imports and exports in the first five months increased by 2.5% year - on - year. - Consumption: The weekly aluminum downstream processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 60.9%. During the off - peak season transition, the start - up rates of some sectors declined, with aluminum cables and industrial profiles performing well, and the aluminum plate, strip and foil sector entering the off - peak season more obviously. It is expected that the weekly start - up rate of downstream aluminum processing may decrease slightly by 0.1 percentage points next week. - Inventory: As of June 12, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 460,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with Monday; the inventory of aluminum rods in major domestic consumption areas decreased to 127,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with Monday [5][6][7]. Market Outlook The macro - environment is unstable. Fundamentally, due to less aluminum ingot casting, limited arrivals, low social and exchange warehouse inventories, and approaching delivery, the near - month futures is strong, which is expected to drive the far - month futures to be strong and deepen the B structure. After delivery, the tight market situation is expected to improve, and aluminum prices need to return to rationality [3][8]. Industry News - Kazakhstan's Prime Minister discussed the project prospect of building a vertically integrated industrial park in Kazakhstan with the founder of Orient Hope Group. The first - phase project plans to build an alumina plant with an annual output of 2 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum plant with an annual output of 1 million tons. - The 2025 industrial energy - saving supervision tasks for 2797 enterprises were determined, including energy - efficiency special supervision for key industries such as electrolytic aluminum. - In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 547,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.19%. From January to May, the cumulative exports were 2.431 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [9]. Related Charts The report provides 10 related charts, including price trends, ratios, premiums, spreads, and inventory seasonal changes of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum [10][11][16].