李婷 021-68556855 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 铁矿石月报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 供需边际转弱 铁矿重心向下 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责条款 ⚫要点需求端：铁水产量偏强运行。铁水产量持续高位运 行，4月日均铁水产量超过240万吨，最高突破245万 吨，创近年同期新高。利润约束逐步显现，4月末长 流程螺纹利润收窄，部分电炉亏损扩大，加之粗钢 限产预期升温，钢厂进一步提产空间受限。 ⚫ 供应端：4月铁矿石供应端呈现"主流减量、非主流 补充"特征， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff policy has raised concerns about a global economic recession, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and dragging down the oil and fat market. However, the US biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment, with US soybean oil rising sharply and providing some support to the oil and fat sector. Meanwhile, Canadian canola has been relatively strong in April due to good crushing demand and low inventory. Palm oil in the producing regions has entered an increasing production cycle, with a significant increase in production in April and a tendency for the increase to expand in May. As prices fall, demand countries like India and China have increased their purchases, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy has fallen short of expectations, and domestic and international inventories are expected to increase during the current production cycle [3][44][45]. - In terms of importing countries, India's palm oil imports in March were 430,000 tons, below the average level, and the market expects April imports to be below normal, remaining below the average for five consecutive months. China's cumulative imports in the first three months of 2025 were 390,000 tons, far lower than the same period in previous years. With the sharp decline in producer quotes, import profits have improved, and recent purchases in China have increased. According to institutional statistics, the purchases for May shipments are relatively sufficient, and the inflection point of domestic inventory is expected to occur in June [3][44]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed has once again paused interest rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The UK-US tariff agreement has been reached to some extent, but the market anticipates limited substantial progress. After a recent rebound, the US stock market still faces pressure, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level. Facing economic uncertainties and expectations of increased supply, the weak pattern of oil prices remains unchanged. Fundamentally, after entering the production increase season, production from May to October will show a seasonal recovery. After the decline in palm oil prices, import profits have improved, and demand countries have increased their purchases. However, considering the increased supply of soybeans in China, the substitution demand for soybean oil remains, which may suppress the export demand of producers. Domestic and international inventories are expected to start a seasonal recovery in May - June. Coupled with the under - performance of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation, palm oil may fluctuate weakly [3][45]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Oil and Fat Market - Since April, the overall oil and fat sector has been fluctuating weakly. Palm oil has been the weakest due to the arrival of the production increase season and poor export demand. In the domestic market, at the end of April, the palm oil 09 contract fell 522 to 8,148 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.14%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 122 to 7,832 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.53%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 142 to 9,297 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.5%. In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 401 to 3,910 ringgit/ton, a decline of 9.3%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 3.59 to 48.97 cents/pound, an increase of 7.91%; the ICE canola active contract rose 82.5 to 693.6 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 13.5%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 910 to 8,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.42%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong fell 190 to 8,070 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 40 to 9,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% [8]. - In early April, palm oil first soared and then fell sharply. The soaring was mainly due to the US biodiesel policy boosting the demand for US soybean oil, which drove the overall oil and fat market up. However, as the palm oil producing regions entered the production increase season, supply gradually increased, and the US tariff policy raised concerns about the global economic outlook. The sharp decline in crude oil prices drove the oil and fat market down, causing palm oil to fall rapidly. From mid - to late April, palm oil entered a wide - range oscillation. After the sharp price decline, the buying interest of demand countries like India and China increased, and the increased bargain - hunting purchases supported the market, while the production increase cycle suppressed it. After the May Day holiday, the domestic market made significant adjustments. With production increasing more than expected and export demand not as optimistic as expected, coupled with the continuous suspension of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy, palm oil oscillated weakly [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - The monthly data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in March was 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%; exports were 1.0055 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%; imports were 121,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%; and the ending inventory was 1.5626 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, in line with expectations, and the overall report was neutral [19]. 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - According to the data of the Malaysian Palm Oil Processors Association (SPPOMA), from April 1 - 30, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 14.50%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.48%, and palm oil production increased by 17.03%. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production from April 1 - 30, 2025, increased by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons compared with the same period last month. Among them, the production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 28.06%, the production in East Malaysia increased by 20.76%, the production in Sabah increased by 24.07%, and the production in Sarawak increased by 11.37%. According to the latest data of SPPOMA, from May 1 - 5, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 61.58%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.59%, and palm oil production increased by 60.17% [27]. - According to the data of shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in April were 825,309 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,874 tons, a decrease of 0.23%. According to the data of shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in April were 1,120,747 tons, an increase of 54,270 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 5.09%. According to the data released by independent inspection company AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil exports in April were 1,087,133 tons, an increase of 37,879 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 3.61% [28]. 2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), Indonesia's palm oil production in February 2025 was 3.79 million tons, 3.828 million tons in January, 4.25 million tons in February 2024, and the five - year average was 3.87 million tons. The total production from January - February 2025 was 7.62 million tons, compared with 8.89 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of exports, Indonesia's palm oil exports in February 2025 were 2.8 million tons, 1.96 million tons in January, 2.17 million tons in February 2024, and the five - year average was 2.34 million tons. The total exports from January - February 2025 were 4.76 million tons, compared with 4.98 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of inventory, Indonesia's palm oil inventory in February 2025 was 2.25 million tons, 2.94 million tons in January, and 3.26 million tons in February 2024 [31]. 2.4 Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - According to the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India's vegetable oil imports in March 2025 were 970,000 tons, an increase of 9.48% compared with 886,000 tons in February. In March 2024, imports were 1.15 million tons, and the five - year average was 1.05 million tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, the total vegetable oil imports were 5.64 million tons, compared with 5.77 million tons in the same period last year [33]. - For different oils, India's palm oil imports in March 2025 were 425,000 tons, an increase of 13.64% compared with 374,000 tons in February. In March 2024, imports were 485,000 tons, and the five - year average was 520,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's palm oil imports were 2.42 million tons, compared with 3.53 million tons in the same period last year. India's soybean oil imports in March 2025 were 355,000 tons, an increase of 25% compared with 284,000 tons in February. In March 2024, soybean oil imports were 219,000 tons, and the five - year average was 270,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 1.91 million tons, compared with 880,000 tons in the same period last year, showing a significant increase. India's sunflower oil imports in March 2025 were 191,000 tons, a decrease of 16.23% compared with 228,000 tons in February. In March 2024, sunflower oil imports were 446,000 tons, and the five - year average was 250,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 1.31 million tons, compared with 1.35 million tons in the same period last year [34]. 2.5 China's Oil Imports - Data from the General Administration of Customs of China shows that China's palm oil imports in March 2025 were 170,000 tons, 100,000 tons in February, 160,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 224,000 tons. The cumulative palm oil imports from January - March 2025 were 390,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons in the same period last year. China's rapeseed oil imports in March 2025 were 344,000 tons, 236,000 tons in February, 195,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 161,000 tons. The cumulative rapeseed oil imports from January - March 2025 were 732,000 tons, compared with 520,000 tons in the same period last year. China's sunflower oil imports in March 2025 were 39,000 tons, 42,000 tons in February, 126,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 111,000 tons. In 2025, sunflower oil imports were 131,000 tons, compared with 412,000 tons in the same period last year. In total, the imports of the above three major oils in March 2025 were 553,000 tons, 378,000 tons in February, 481,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 496,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils from January - March 2024 were 1.253 million tons, compared with 1.483 million tons in the same period last year [36]. 2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - According to data from My Agri, as of the week ending May 2, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 1.7788 million tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 99,800 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 626,800 tons, an increase of 8,300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 231,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 356,100 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 103,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 795,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous week and an increase of 434,500 tons compared with the same period last year [41]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The US tariff policy has raised concerns about a global economic recession, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and dragging down the oil and fat market. The US biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment, with US soybean oil rising sharply and providing some support to the oil and fat sector. Palm oil in the producing regions has entered an increasing production cycle, with a significant increase in production in April and a tendency for the increase to expand in May. As prices fall, demand countries like India and China have increased their purchases, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy has fallen short of expectations, and domestic and international inventories are expected to increase during the current production cycle [44]. - In terms of importing countries, India's palm oil imports in March were 430,000 tons, below the average level, and the market expects April imports to be below normal, remaining below the average for five consecutive months. China's cumulative imports in the first three months of 2025 were 390,000 tons, far lower than the same period in previous years. With the sharp decline in producer quotes, import profits have improved, and recent purchases in China have increased. According to institutional statistics, the purchases for May shipments are relatively sufficient, and the inflection point of domestic inventory is expected to occur in June [44]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed has once again paused interest rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The UK - US tariff agreement has been reached to some extent, but the market anticipates limited substantial progress. After a recent rebound, the US stock market still faces pressure, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level. Facing economic uncertainties and expectations of increased supply, the weak pattern of oil prices remains unchanged. Fundamentally, after entering the production increase season, production from May to October will show a seasonal recovery. After the decline in palm oil prices, import profits have improved, and demand countries have increased their purchases. However, considering the increased supply of soybeans in China, the substitution demand for soybean oil remains, which may suppress the export demand of producers. Domestic and international inventories are expected to start a seasonal recovery in May - June. Coupled with the under - performance of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation, palm oil may fluctuate weakly [45].

豆粕月报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 关注5月USDA报告 连粕或震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/21 图表目录 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 国际方面：中美经贸谈判进入长周期的博弈过程，在当 前税率的情况下，对远月合约仍形成支撑。4月USDA报告 对美国和巴西大豆调整有限，新季美豆播种季开启，整 体进度较快，有利于产量增加，播种初期天气较为良好； 新年度美豆种植面积下调，或有供应收紧预期，关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, boosting market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and various economic data [2]. - The prices of most commodities showed different trends of fluctuations. Precious metals prices continued to adjust, copper prices were strongly volatile, aluminum prices were weakly volatile, and the prices of other commodities also changed according to their respective fundamentals [3][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, with the US retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel - aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK car imports. Trump encouraged stock - buying, leading to a rebound in US stocks and cryptocurrencies, the US dollar index stabilizing above 100, the US bond yield rising to 4.37%, and the gold price falling by over 1%. Oil and copper prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced trading volume, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to 1.32 trillion. The ChiNext and small - cap stocks performed well, and sectors such as military and optical modules led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered the decline since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April. In the bond market, after the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the money market became looser, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Attention should be paid to April's foreign trade, financial, and price data [2]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures tumbled 2.40% to $3310 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures edged down 0.57% to $32.6 per ounce. The trade agreement between the US and the UK reduced the appeal of gold as a safe - haven asset. If the Sino - US trade talks reach an agreement, the gold price may face further downward pressure [3]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper soared overnight. The spot market trading was light, and the LME inventory decreased to 194,000 tons. The first - quarter copper production of First Quantum decreased by 10.7% quarter - on - quarter. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum closed at 19,510 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. LME aluminum rose 0.17%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 16,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 9,000 tons. The market sentiment was relieved by the US - UK trade agreement. The aluminum price is expected to remain weakly volatile due to consumption concerns [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the alumina futures main contract rose 3.25% to 2794 yuan per ton. Negative news about new capacity led to a small rebound in alumina prices, but the sustainability and height of the rebound are expected to be limited [9]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, and LME zinc closed up. Recently, imported zinc ingots have flowed in, and with the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the zinc price is under pressure, and short positions can be held against the 10 - day moving average [10][11]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead fluctuated narrowly, and LME lead also had a narrow - range fluctuation. The social inventory increased. Some lead smelters plan to conduct maintenance, and the supply reduction provides support. The lead price is expected to move sideways in the short term [12][14]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin first rose and then declined, and LME tin had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve slightly, and the consumption is stable. The tin price is expected to fluctuate [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon main contract trended downwards. The supply side has limited expansion power, and the demand side is weak. The social inventory remains at 600,000 tons, and the industrial silicon price is expected to continue to decline in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the lithium carbonate price fluctuated widely, and the spot price fell. The short - selling sentiment subsided after the price failed to break through. The downstream purchasing is weak, and the basis correction risk has materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price fluctuated widely. The macro - level still has tariff risks, and the downstream replenishment willingness is weak after the holiday. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate [20]. Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil trended strongly. The false news of Kazakhstan's production cut and geopolitical conflicts co - existed. The long - term downward pressure on oil prices comes from OPEC +'s continuous large - scale production increase. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures declined. The supply of the five major steel products decreased, the inventory increased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The steel price is expected to weaken due to weak supply and demand [22][23]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Downstream steel mills cut production, and the supply is relatively loose. The iron ore price is expected to trend weakly [24]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract declined. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the soybean harvest forecast. The double - meal prices are expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [25]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 09 contract declined. The BIMP - EAGA Commercial Committee plans to strengthen the quality monitoring of crude palm oil. The palm oil price is expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [26][27].

工业硅月报 供需持续失衡，工业硅延续探底 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 2025 年 5 月 7 日 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 16 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 宏观方面，我国4月制造业PMI陷入萎缩，而工业企 业利润同比增速转正，美国对华关税态度软化推动 人民币汇率升值，央行MLF延续净投放，"两新政策" 引领下我国经济内循环将逐渐加速，政治局会议强 调超常规宏观政策储备仍然充裕，我国将继续全力 推进科技创新和高质量发展。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macro level: Trump's policy is volatile, and the market is gradually desensitized to tariff disturbances. The Fed may start cutting interest rates in June, but the better economic data in April has postponed the rate - cut expectation [3]. - Cost: Indonesia has twice lowered the domestic trade benchmark price in April, but the nickel ore supply shortage persists. The new resource tax regulation has raised the overall cost of nickel products, and domestic nickel ore port inventories are at a multi - year low [3]. - Fundamentals: Due to high stainless - steel inventories, the demand for ferronickel has cooled, and its price has weakened. The supply and demand of nickel sulfate are both strong, and its price is relatively stable. The export window for electrolytic nickel remains open, and domestic resources are flowing to LME. The fundamentals remain bearish [3]. - Outlook: The impact of tariffs and resource tax is weakening, and the subsequent rate - cut expectation may boost nickel prices. The supply of electrolytic nickel remains high, stainless - steel de - stocking is slow, and the new - energy sector is about to enter the off - season. The fundamentals will remain bearish, and nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level [3][40]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Futures: In April, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated widely. In the early April, affected by Trump's tariff policy, the nickel price fell. Then, due to the resource tax regulation in Indonesia, the price quickly corrected upwards and then entered a shock [7]. - Spot: The spot premium dropped from a high level. After the sharp decline in nickel prices, the spot market was active, and the premium rose rapidly. As the price stabilized at a high level, the premium declined slightly [8]. 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - Manufacturing: In April, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. The new export orders declined significantly, while domestic orders and employment indexes increased slightly [11]. - Labor market: The US unemployment rate in April was 4.2%. The non - farm payrolls were 177,000, slightly weaker than the previous period but better than expected. Wage growth is slowing down, and there are still hidden dangers in the labor market [12]. Domestic - Manufacturing: China's manufacturing PMI in April was 49, below the expected 49.8 and the previous value of 50.5. New export orders and other sub - indexes declined significantly, and enterprises continued to reduce inventories [13]. - Fiscal policy: In March, the general public budget expenditure increased by about 5.67% year - on - year. The proportion of people's livelihood expenditure reached a new high since 2018, and promoting domestic demand through redistribution optimization is the clear path [13]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Nickel Ore - Price: The price of nickel ore continued to rise. The FOB price of Indonesian (1.5%) laterite nickel ore rose by 1.5 dollars/wet ton, and that of the Philippines rose by 4 dollars/wet ton [17]. - Supply: Indonesia has twice lowered the domestic trade benchmark price, but the supply shortage persists. In March, China's nickel ore imports decreased by 0.45% year - on - year, and domestic port inventories reached a multi - year low [17][18]. Electrolytic Nickel - Production: In April, the national refined nickel production was 36,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37.82%. The production capacity was 54,099 tons, slightly higher than the previous period, and the over - capacity was more obvious [19]. - Trade: In March, China imported 8,832 tons of refined nickel, a year - on - year increase of 34.16%, and exported 14,527 tons, a year - on - year increase of 93.53%. The export window is open, and domestic resources are flowing to LME [21]. Ferronickel - Price: In April, the price of high - nickel pig iron dropped from a high level, from 1,333 yuan/nickel point at the beginning of the month to 969 yuan/nickel point at the end of the month [23]. - Supply and demand: In April, China's ferronickel production was 25,460 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%. Stainless - steel inventories are high, and the demand for ferronickel has cooled [23]. Nickel Sulfate - Price: In April, the price of nickel sulfate fluctuated weakly. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 28,260 yuan/ton to 28,080 yuan/ton [27]. - Supply and demand: In April, the production of nickel sulfate was 27,895 tons (metal content), with a year - on - year decrease of 19.04% and a month - on - month increase of 7.19%. The supply and demand were basically balanced, and the profit margins of different processes showed signs of weakening [28]. Stainless Steel - Price: In April, the price of 300 - series stainless steel fluctuated. The price of 304 stainless steel (Baoxin Shanghai) dropped from 14,600 yuan/ton to 14,150 yuan/ton, a decline of about 3.08% [30]. - Supply and demand: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.92 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The demand for stainless steel in the small - appliance market is strong, but the real - estate market transaction heat has cooled [30]. New - Energy Vehicles - Sales: From January to March, the cumulative sales of new - energy vehicles were about 3.075 million, a year - on - year increase of 47.13%. In the first 20 days of April, the retail sales of new - energy vehicles decreased by 11% compared with the same period last month [34]. - Outlook: The new - energy vehicle market may enter the off - season in the second and third quarters. Although new technologies and models are expected to be launched, and the negotiation on the minimum car price between China and the EU is ongoing, the overall demand outlook is not optimistic [35]. Inventory - As of April 25, 2025, domestic refined nickel social inventories decreased, while LME inventories increased. Domestic resources are flowing to LME, and the resource structure of primary product imports and refined nickel exports may continue [38]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The supply will remain high, which is bearish for the market [40]. - Demand: High stainless - steel inventories and the upcoming off - season for new - energy vehicles mean no bright spots in demand, which is bearish [40]. - Cost: The nickel ore shortage is gradually easing, but the new resource tax regulation has raised the cost center [40]. - Macro: The Fed's rate - cut may boost market sentiment, which is neutral to bullish [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The risk appetite in the domestic market has rebounded due to the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US officials in Switzerland. The A - share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, and the bond market is influenced by expectations of monetary policy and tariff policies [2]. - Gold prices remain strong, driven by factors such as potential US tariffs on imported drugs, Chinese demand, and the EU's trade stance. The market is awaiting Powell's speech after the Fed meeting [3]. - Copper prices are strengthening as Sino - US economic and trade meetings are about to start, and the global trade situation is expected to improve [4]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure near the 20,000 - yuan mark due to inventory accumulation during the holiday and the approaching seasonal off - season for consumption [6][7]. - Alumina prices have some support from production cuts, but new production capacity in May may weaken this support [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the approaching Sino - US economic and trade talks and the low absolute inventory providing support. Attention should be paid to the liquidity pressure of the current - month contract [10][11]. - Lead prices have limited upside and downside space. Although inventory accumulation during the May Day holiday was small, supply reduction due to the production cut of recycled lead provides some support [12]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation due to the tight balance between supply and demand [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline in the short term due to the imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and cost inversion [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weakly volatile as the supply increase expectation is clear and the market is pessimistic [17]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate as the improvement in fundamentals is limited [18][19]. - Crude oil prices are oscillating. The OPEC + production increase plan and the dim global demand outlook keep the medium - term fundamentals bearish [20]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound due to the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks and policy expectations [21]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate upward due to the improvement in macro - sentiment [22]. - Soybean meal prices may oscillate weakly in the short term due to the increasing domestic soybean arrivals and the expected supply tightening of US soybeans in the long term. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal but has some support from aquaculture demand [23][24]. - Palm oil prices may oscillate weakly due to the increase in supply during the production season and the inventory increase after the holiday [25][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US trade deficit in March reached a record high of $140.5 billion. Sino - US officials will hold talks in Switzerland. The market risk appetite has contracted, the US dollar index has fallen below 100, the US stock market has corrected, the 10Y US Treasury yield has risen to 4.3%, gold prices have increased by more than 2%, and oil prices have risen by nearly 3% [2]. - Domestic: After the holiday, the A - share market had a significant increase in trading volume, with the turnover reaching 1.36 trillion yuan. The market's risk appetite has significantly increased. The bond market is influenced by expectations of monetary policy and tariff policies [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold prices rose by 3.60% on Tuesday, reaching above the $3400 mark. Silver prices also increased by 2.96% to $33.44 per ounce. The increase was due to concerns about US tariffs on imported drugs, strong Chinese demand, and the EU's trade stance [3]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward, and LME copper broke through the $9500 mark. The Sino - US economic and trade high - level meeting is approaching, and the global trade situation is expected to improve. The inventory of LME copper decreased to 196,000 tons [4]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,785 yuan/ton, down 1%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 22,000 tons during the holiday. The market sentiment is cautious, and aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term [6][7]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures fell 1.94% to 2675 yuan/ton. An alumina enterprise in Shandong reduced production by 550,000 tons. Production cuts in May provide some support, but new production capacity may weaken it [8][9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated. The inventory of zinc ingots increased during the holiday. Glencore's zinc production in Q1 2025 increased by 4% year - on - year. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the liquidity pressure of the current - month contract [10][11]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated. A small - scale recycled lead smelter in South China plans to stop production for maintenance. The inventory increased slightly during the holiday. Lead prices have limited upside and downside space [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated strongly. The demand for tin is stable but will seasonally weaken later. The supply is expected to improve but remains tight in the second quarter. Tin prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to decline. The inventory of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts remained high. The supply is difficult to expand due to cost inversion, and the demand is weak. Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices were weakly volatile. The supply is expected to increase, and the market is pessimistic. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices oscillated widely. The Indonesian nickel ore reference price has decreased, but the shortage situation has not changed significantly. The production of electrolytic nickel in May is expected to decrease, and stainless steel production is under pressure. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [18][19]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, crude oil prices oscillated strongly. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. OPEC + plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels in June, and the global demand outlook is dim. Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [20]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures opened high and then fell, and rebounded at night. The Sino - US economic and trade talks are approaching, and policy expectations are strengthening. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The inventory of major ports in Australia and Brazil increased. The macro - sentiment has improved, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate upward [22]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - As of May 2, the inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal increased. The sowing progress of US soybeans was 30%. Brazilian farmers plan to expand the soybean planting area. Domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, and soybean meal prices may oscillate weakly. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal but has some support [23][24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil prices fell. The production of Malaysian palm oil in April increased by 24.62%, and the production from May 1 - 5 increased by 60.17%. The inventory of three major oils increased. Palm oil prices may oscillate weakly [25][26]. 3.17 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts on May 6, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver [27]. 3.18 Industrial Data - The report presents the industrial data of various metals, such as the inventory, spot price, and basis of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals, comparing the data between May 6 and April 30 [28][30][32].

商品日报 20250430 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普放松汽车关税，国内关注今日中国 PMI 海外方面，3 月美国职位空缺数降至去年 9 月来新低、4 月美国谘商会消费者信心暴跌 至近五年低点、美国 3 月份商品贸易逆差扩大至 1620 亿美元。特朗普签署行政令减缓美股 汽车进口关税、利于美国本土车企，同时外媒称其拟将 AI 芯片作为贸易谈判的新筹码。尽 管美国经济数据偏弱，但关税政策放宽提振市场风偏，美股低开高走，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.17%，金价回调，铜价收涨，油价因市场担忧 OPEC+增产跌幅近 2%， 国内方面，节前市场交投清淡，A 股缩量震荡，两市成交额回落至 1.04 万亿，风格上 北证 50、小微盘股领涨，行业上日用化工、化纤、家居等行业领涨，市场近期热度降温，等 待增量信息指引方向。债市方面，央行持续净投放、资金面整体偏松，同时市场预期 4 月经 济数据偏弱，主要期限国债利率均下行，今日关注 4 月 PMI 制造业数据 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250429 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美债利率持续回落，A 股节前避险情绪浓厚 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续恶化，4 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数大幅低于预期，创 下 2020 年 5 月来新低，关税引发的"滞涨"预期仍在发酵。美财政部上调二季度举债规模 预期至 5140 亿美元，针对债务上限问题的"X 日"将于近期公布。美国财长：首笔贸易协 议可能最早在本周或下周达成，印度或是首批之一。美元指数失守 99 关口，10Y 美债利率 下行至 4.2%、创三周新低，金价、铜价收涨，油价回落。 国内方面，发改委：我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措；将建立 实施育儿补贴制度，定向增发购车指标。常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备。央行：将适时 降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具。A 股继续缩量下跌，两市成交额回落至 1.08 万 亿，假期前夕避险情绪浓厚，风格上北证 50、小微盘股跌幅较大， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - level shows that Trump signaled tariff adjustment, the Sino - US tariff dispute may ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates in June after getting more economic data. The market risk preference has cooled [5]. - Fundamentally, although Indonesia lowered the nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in April (Phase II), the FOB price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore is still strong, and the price of Philippine nickel ore has risen significantly. Domestic nickel ore port inventories are at a low level. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel shows signs of destocking but is still at a high level, suppressing the continuous decline of ferronickel prices. The nickel sulfate market is mediocre. After the nickel price stabilizes, the domestic - foreign price difference is corrected, and the export window re - opens, supporting high domestic production. Market transactions are dull, waiting for the implementation of Indonesian policies [5]. - In the later stage, there are disturbance risks in both policy and resource aspects. It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see in the short term. The new Indonesian tax regulations come into effect on Saturday, and the negotiated tax rate may differ from expectations. In the industry, as the auto sales enter the off - season, there is no incremental expectation in the power market, and the high stainless - steel inventory will continue to pressure the ferronickel price. Supply remains high with no recent disturbances, and there is no current supply - demand contradiction. However, with overseas nickel ore shortages, domestic nickel ore port inventories are at an absolute low, and the overseas shortage may gradually affect the domestic market. While being vigilant about policy disturbances, pay attention to the risks at the mine end [5][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel price on April 25, 2025, was 125,800 yuan/ton, up 1,660 yuan/ton from April 16 [6]. - LME nickel price on April 25, 2025, was 15,545 dollars/ton, down 138 dollars/ton from April 16 [6]. - LME inventory on April 25, 2025, was 203,850 tons, down 678 tons from April 16 [6]. - SHFE inventory on April 25, 2025, was 24,800 tons, down 520 tons from April 16 [6]. - Jinchuan nickel premium on April 25, 2025, was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from April 16 [6]. - Russian nickel premium remained unchanged at 250 yuan/ton from April 16 to April 25 [6]. - The average price of high - nickel pig iron on April 25, 2025, was 990 yuan/nickel point, down 20 yuan/nickel point from April 16 [6]. - Stainless - steel inventory on April 25, 2025, was 926,000 tons, down 17,400 tons from April 16 [6]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The FOB price of Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore rose from 49.25 dollars/wet ton to 51 dollars/wet ton, and the FOB price of Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore rose from 36.25 dollars/wet ton to 38 dollars/wet ton (April 18). Although Indonesia recently lowered the April (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price, the shortage situation continues, and the prices of both Indonesian and Philippine nickel ores have increased [7]. - Domestic nickel ore port inventories have reached a low level in recent years. Despite the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore arrivals this year, the demand for nickel ore is strong due to the record - high domestic refined nickel production [7]. Ferronickel - The average arrival - port duty - paid price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped from 987 yuan/nickel point to 973 yuan/nickel point. In March, China's ferronickel production was 25,400 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. In March, the total domestic ferronickel imports were about 1.0133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60%, and the import scale exceeded one million tons for the first time. Indonesia's ferronickel production in April is expected to be 141,000 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%, with the production growth rate significantly slowing down [8]. - In April, the total production of China's 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.92 million tons, an increase of 26 tons compared with the same period last year. As of April 24, the domestic stainless - steel inventory was 579,600 tons, a month - on - month destocking of 15,900 tons. Overall, the inventory accumulation of stainless steel has slowed down, but the destocking trend is not obvious, and the inventory remains at a high level. Currently, domestic ferronickel still faces strong cost pressure and high import dependence, with the import scale reaching a new high. However, the current nickel ore supply in Indonesia is tight, and the growth of ferronickel production has significantly slowed down [8]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,050 yuan/ton to 28,080 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate rose from 29,750 yuan/ton to 30,750 yuan/ton. In April, the expected production of nickel sulfate is about 27,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.19%. In April, the production of ternary materials rebounded month - on - month, with a total of about 62,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.22%. Overall, the new - energy power market performs mediocrely, the mainstream cathode is still lithium - iron phosphate, and the market share of ternary materials is continuously compressed. With the future entry of CATL's sodium - ion batteries into the market, the market share of ternary batteries may be further squeezed, and the long - term demand for nickel sulfate is expected to decline [9]. Macro - level - Trump signaled tariff negotiations and said that the tariff sanctions on China would be significantly reduced, but as of the report release, Sino - US tariff negotiations had not started. The US economic survey report shows that there is no obvious change in the US domestic economy, but it repeatedly emphasizes the uncertainty of the impact of tariff policies on the economy. Fed officials said that there are signs of cooling in the US labor market, and the Fed may start to cut interest rates in June after getting more data support. After the news was released, non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and gold rebounded significantly [5][9][10]. Fundamentals - Supply side: In April, domestic production capacity was stable, and production reached a new high. The expected production of refined nickel in April was 34,280 tons, an increase of about 2,120 tons from the previous month; the sample production capacity was 53,299 tons, the same as the previous period; the expected operating rate in April was 64.32%, an increase of about 0.12 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the domestic electrolytic nickel export scale was about 145,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 93.53%. As of April 23, the export profit of Chinese nickel under the SMM caliber was 218.08 dollars/ton. Overall, although the month - on - month export of domestic electrolytic nickel has shrunk, the year - on - year increase is significant, and the absolute volume remains at a high level. With the stable nickel price, the domestic - foreign price difference is corrected, and the export window re - opens, which will still support high domestic electrolytic nickel supply [10]. - Consumption side: From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% compared with the same period in April last year and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 53.3%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have been 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. In early April, the growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales slowed down significantly, dragging down the annual consumption growth rate. According to the CPCA, the production - sales ratio of new - energy vehicles is at a low level, and the post - holiday rebound is weaker than in previous years. The weak demand momentum leads to a mismatch between vehicle manufacturers' production plans and sales expectations, and the inventory pressure on the whole vehicle remains. Short - term consumption may depend on the results of the auto show in the second half of the month. Currently, China and the EU have started negotiations on electric - vehicle prices, and a minimum - pricing plan will replace the tariff plan. However, regardless of the pricing result, the competitiveness of domestic brands in the European market will gradually weaken, and the external demand for exports is not optimistic. In the traditional field, as of April 20, the cumulative sales of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities were 285,600 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.87%; the cumulative sales area was 29.6657 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. Overall, the domestic commodity sales have weakened again, and the year - on - year negative growth shows signs of expanding, indicating that the previous replacement demand may be coming to an end. With the lack of financial attributes, the rigid - demand consumption of housing is limited. However, there is still a window for the easing of Sino - US trade, and electrical appliance orders are expected to gradually recover in the near future, but the incremental expectation is limited, and it is difficult to change the bearish fundamentals [11]. Inventory - The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six locations is 44,661 tons, an increase of 701 tons from the previous period; the SHFE inventory is 24,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 520 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 203,850 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 678 tons; the total inventory of the world's two major exchanges is 228,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,198 tons [12]. 3. Industry Highlights - LG's withdrawal may delay Indonesia's goal of becoming an electric - vehicle battery center. The vice - chairman of the Indonesian Energy, Mineral, and Coal Suppliers Association said that LG's withdrawal from the "Titan Project" may delay Indonesia's goal of becoming a center for electric - vehicle (EV) batteries [14]. - The construction of Jinchuan's nickel - cobalt nickel smelter project has accelerated. In 2025, Jinchuan's nickel - cobalt nickel smelter launched a "key - project mode" focusing on technological innovation, equipment upgrading, and green transformation. The number of projects increased by 145% year - on - year, and the investment increased by 41.5% to comprehensively enhance core competitiveness [14]. - Hanrui Cobalt has postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelter in Indonesia to 2026. Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co., Ltd. has postponed the commissioning of its nickel - smelting project in Indonesia to March 31, 2026, citing delays in obtaining administrative permits at the project site and complex geological conditions [14]. - Zhefu Holdings' nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation. As of April 16, Zhefu Holdings stated on the investor interaction platform that its nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation, with a nickel equivalent production of about 6,400 tons in 2024. The refined cobalt sulfate and lithium carbonate projects have basically completed construction and are ready for commissioning [14].