Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals show supply increase and demand stability, with no significant improvement. The price increase provides hedging opportunities for the upstream, driving smelters to increase production. The cost of lithium spodumene and lithium mica has slightly increased. The lithium price was strong during the week due to macro - sentiment and market rumors, but was restricted by fundamentals and declined at the end of the week. The spot is expected to improve marginally, which may support the futures market. The government may strengthen management of car price competition, and new energy vehicle sales have accelerated in June. However, the market inventory has increased since late May, and the improvement in terminal consumption may lag in driving demand. Overall, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the lithium price decline is expected to be limited [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data - From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) remained unchanged. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.36%, while the industrial - grade increased by 2.22%. The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 3.58%. The price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.64%, and the prices of cobalt - lithium oxide remained unchanged. The prices of ternary materials 811 and 622 decreased by 0.34% and 0.39% respectively [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of June 13, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 32,118 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 60,420 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 147,400 lots [8]. - **Supply Side**: As of June 13, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 17,018 tons, an increase of 1,005 tons from the previous period. The price increase provided good hedging opportunities for salt factories, and production may remain stable. In mid - June, Zhongkuang's 40,000 - ton salt - lake production capacity will enter the market, and the proportion of low - cost lithium salt may increase [8]. - **Import**: In April, the lithium carbonate import volume was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. The import from Chile was 20,200 tons, and from Argentina was 6,850 tons. The export of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The import of lithium ore in April was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The increase mainly came from Zimbabwe, and the import from Nigeria also increased. Although the shipment of some African mines was hindered, the overall shipment of African lithium mines was on the rise [9][10]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of June 13, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 65,938 tons, with an operating rate of 59.99% (an increase of 0.06 percentage points), and the inventory increased by 513 tons. The production of ternary materials was about 15,085 tons, with an operating rate of 47.95% (an increase of 0.14 percentage points), and the inventory decreased by 200 tons. The prices of ternary materials slightly declined, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate remained stable. In the short term, downstream replenishment may be limited, but terminal consumption improvement may drive raw material inventory depletion [11]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From June 1 - 8, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 202,000, a year - on - year increase of 40% and a month - on - month increase of 4%. The retail penetration rate was 58.8%. The government's policy to regulate "involution - style" competition may indicate that car prices have reached a bottom, which may stimulate consumers. As of May 31, there were 4.12 million subsidy applications for car replacement. The new regulation on payment to small and medium - sized enterprises may affect some car companies' cash flow [12]. - **Inventory**: As of June 13, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 98,615 tons, an increase of about 3,400 tons. The factory inventory increased by about 800 tons, and the market inventory increased by about 2,600 tons. The exchange inventory was relatively stable, and the market inventory increased significantly, indicating some downstream replenishment. However, the upstream inventory also increased, showing supply elasticity [14]. This Week's Outlook - The spot is expected to improve marginally, which may support the futures market. The government's regulation of car price competition may stimulate new energy vehicle sales. Although the new energy vehicle sales have accelerated in June, the market inventory has increased since late May, and the improvement in terminal consumption may lag in driving demand. Supply may remain relatively stable due to hedging opportunities. Overall, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the lithium price decline is expected to be limited [15]. Industry News - **Shengxin Lithium Energy**: The Indonesian lithium salt project is expected to supply in bulk in the third quarter. The company is also involved in the metal lithium business for solid - state batteries and is promoting the construction of a 2,500 - ton metal lithium production capacity project [16]. - **Zimbabwe**: It will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027 to encourage local refining. Last year, it supplied about 14% of China's lithium imports, and the produced lithium sulfate will still be shipped to China [16]. - **Tianci Materials**: Its Moroccan electrolyte project with an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons has been finalized, with a total investment of about 2.03 billion yuan [17]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, supply structure, import volume, and the prices and production of related materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [18][19][24][27][30][31].

贵金属周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 中东紧张局势升级，金价再度走强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周黄金价格震荡上行，COMEX期金主力合约再度站上 3450美元/盎司上方，最高至3468美元/盎司，创近两个月 新高。主要因为中东地缘局势恶化，以色列空袭伊朗，再 次引发市场对中东地区爆发更广泛冲突的担忧，资金纷纷 涌向避险资产。而白银价格则呈震荡偏弱走势，COMEX期 银主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that US inflation data is weakening, labor market is stable, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the US - Iran conflict may push up the US dollar index and put pressure on nickel prices. [2] - Fundamentally, the risk of resource disturbances has decreased as the Philippines cancels the nickel ore export ban. Indonesia's resource supply is tight, and the high ore price provides cost support. The demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak, and the supply side has also weakened, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. [2] - In the later stage, macro factors may cause periodic disturbances, and the weak fundamental expectation will continue. Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - SHFE nickel price dropped from 122,710 yuan/ton on June 9, 2025, to 119,920 yuan/ton on June 13, 2025, a decrease of 2,790 yuan/ton. LME nickel price decreased from 15,421 US dollars/ton to 15,128 US dollars/ton, a decline of 293 US dollars/ton. [4] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,568 tons to 197,538 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory increased by 573 tons to 21,765 tons. [4] - The average price of high - nickel pig iron dropped from 960 yuan/nickel point to 947 yuan/nickel point. [4] - Stainless steel inventory increased from 893,000 tons to 917,000 tons, an increase of 23,500 tons. [4] 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from 50 US dollars/wet ton to 51.55 US dollars/wet ton. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia remained at 41.3 US dollars/wet ton. The resource disturbance risk has been eliminated, but the supply in Indonesia is still tight, and the cost side is supported. [5] 3.2.2 Ferronickel - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 951.5 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point. In May, China's nickel pig iron production was expected to be about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. In April, domestic ferronickel imports totaled about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. In May, Indonesia's ferronickel production was expected to be 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase/decrease of 16.9%/ - 0.47%. The cost pressure on ferronickel plants is prominent. [6] 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,815 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate metal was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61%/ - 2.27%. The production of ternary materials increased slightly, but the demand is expected to have no increment. [7] 3.2.4 Macro and Fundamental Aspects - In the macro - aspect, US economic data is generally good, inflation is in a downward channel, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. [7][8] - In the fundamental aspect, on the supply side, the smelting start - up rate has decreased, but the export window is still open. In terms of terminal consumption, the new - energy vehicle market had good sales at the beginning of June, but it is in the off - season, and consumption is difficult to boost significantly. [8][9] 3.3 Industry News - The Philippines' Senate and House of Representatives decided to cancel the nickel ore export ban clause in the final law, and the PNIA welcomed this decision. [12] - ITSS nickel - iron plant's No. 14 furnace was successfully restarted after maintenance. [12] - Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved new progress, and the two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework to implement the important consensus of the leaders' phone call and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory. [14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, leading to a decline in macro - risk appetite. Fundamental support has increased, with a sequential decline in recycled lead supply due to environmental inspections and losses. However, consumption is in the transition phase between peak and off - peak seasons, showing no obvious recovery, and inventory has increased slightly, slowing down the upward momentum of lead prices. Supply - side contradictions support lead prices to fluctuate strongly, but significant improvement in consumption is needed to effectively open up the upside space. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance around 17,200 yuan/ton [3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From June 6th to June 13th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,780 yuan/ton to 16,945 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,974 dollars/ton to 1,992.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 18.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio remained unchanged at 8.50. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 49,811 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 264,975 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.08 million tons to 5.47 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 205 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the price center of the main SHFE lead contract PB2507 moved up, mainly boosted by the production cuts of recycled lead smelters in Inner Mongolia and Anhui due to environmental inspections. However, the increase was slowed down by the inventory increase, and it finally closed at 16,945 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.98%. The LME lead price maintained a sideways shock, closing at 1,992 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.91%. In the spot market, by June 13th, the price of Chihong and Honglu lead in the Shanghai market was 16,930 - 16,980 yuan/ton, at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2507 contract. The ex - factory prices of electrolytic lead smelters were firm, and recycled lead smelters actively quoted for sales. Downstream enterprises were more cautious, with fewer inquiries and weaker spot market transactions [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of June 13th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 600 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and recycled lead, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, production of primary and recycled lead, social inventory of lead ingots, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation shows progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and proposed real - estate policy optimization in Guangzhou. The industrial data last week was poor, with both output and apparent demand declining. Hot - rolled coils have been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, affected by the slowdown in manufacturing steel use and weakening exports. The apparent demand for rebar has declined month - on - month, dragged down by the terminal real - estate and seasonal weakening of demand. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate weakly [1][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2969 | - 6 | - 0.20 | 8652225 | 3086173 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3082 | - 10 | - 0.32 | 2922804 | 1566756 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 704.0 | - 3.5 | - 0.49 | 1262009 | 716699 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 774.5 | - 4.0 | - 0.51 | 6009851 | 695773 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1349.5 | - 1.0 | - 0.07 | 158036 | 56573 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend, with weak supply and demand and limited macro - support, resulting in a lack of upward momentum for steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2900 (0) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3080 (- 40) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3180 (- 20) yuan/ton [4]. Industry News 1. The China Iron and Steel Association called on the steel and automotive industries to break the "involution" [6][7]. 2. The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, achieving new progress in resolving economic and trade concerns [1][4][10]. 3. On June 13, 2025, the Israel Defense Forces launched an air strike on Iranian nuclear and military facilities [10]. 4. Guangzhou plans to optimize real - estate policies, cancel purchase and sales restrictions, reduce down - payment ratios and interest rates, and promote the renovation of old communities and villages [10]. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 [8][11][13][15][16][21][23][25][27][29][31][33][35][36][40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the alumina spot market has tight supply, and the continuous decline in warehouse receipt inventory supports the near - term prices, making them relatively resistant to decline. However, as alumina复产 progresses, the expectation of increased future supply is growing, and the support for near - term prices will gradually weaken. The near - term prices are expected to decline to find a reasonable range. Considering the firm bauxite prices due to Guinea's bauxite supply, the cost support is good, and the downward space is expected to be limited [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/13 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2901 | 2852 | - 49 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3306 | 3287 | - 19 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 279 | 287 | 8 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 363 | 363 | 0 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 85.69 | 44.27 | - 41.4 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 92468 | 80143 | - 12325 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 300 | 300 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 75 | 74.5 | - 0.5 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract fell 1.69% last week, closing at 2852 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 3287 Yuan/ton, down 19 Yuan/ton from the previous week. - For bauxite, domestic bauxite supply remains tight. With strong profit recovery expectations for alumina, the procurement of bauxite is cautious, resulting in a situation of high prices but few transactions, and the price center of domestic bauxite has slightly declined. For imported bauxite, factors such as shipping schedules from Guinea have made enterprises cautious about spot procurement. Sellers still have a certain attitude of holding up prices due to the upcoming rainy season in Guinea, and the price game between supply and demand continues. - On the supply side, some alumina enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, increasing the alumina supply. However, the supply in some regions is still tight, and it is difficult to pick up goods. As of June 12, China's alumina installed capacity was 112.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 88.05 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.34%. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guizhou have plans to resume production, and those in Yunnan may also release new production capacity. It is expected that the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will increase slightly next week. - In terms of inventory, last Friday, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12325 tons to 80,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 300 tons [4]. Market Outlook - The bauxite supply was basically stable last week. Attention should continue to be paid to the impact of the political situation in Guinea and the rainy season on imported bauxite. On the supply side, some alumina enterprises are promoting the resumption of production, and the operating capacity of alumina has increased. However, after a long - term operation at a low capacity, the spot supply in some regions is slightly tight, and the overall supply pressure has not been clearly shown. The market spot price remains relatively firm. On the consumption side, the capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, but there is a relatively bearish view on the alumina price, and procurement is cautious. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 12325 tons last week to 80,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 300 tons. Overall, the current alumina spot market has tight supply, and the continuous decline in warehouse receipt inventory affects the market, making the near - term prices relatively resistant to decline. But as alumina production resumes, the expectation of increased future supply is growing, and the support for near - term prices will gradually weaken. The near - term prices are expected to decline to find a reasonable range. Considering the firm bauxite prices due to Guinea's bauxite supply, the cost support is good, and the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. Industry News - Ambassador Yang Renhuo of China to Guinea - Bissau attended the commencement ceremony of the bauxite exploration project of Chinalco in the Boé region of Gabu Province. - A public notice was issued for the new establishment of the mining right for the Xiaozaozhuang block bauxite mine in Zhongyang County, Shanxi Province. The mining right holder is Ningbo Kunye Trading Co., Ltd. The public notice period is from June 9, 2025, to June 20, 2025 [7]. Related Charts The report provides charts including alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - month spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [8][9][11].

工业硅周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 终端消费回落，工业硅反弹乏力 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 二、市场分析及展望 上周工业硅反弹乏力，主因全球关税疑云未散，国内宏观政策进入真空期，光伏供给侧 改革进入实质性阶段对原料需求打击较大。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复至 65%,川滇地 区开炉数小幅回升，内蒙产量平稳，但供应端总体增长有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅产量供 应不确定性较大，拉晶 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures showed a trend of first declining and then rising. The Sino - US negotiation in London had no obvious changes. US inflation data in May was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. China's inflation data remained weak, and May's credit and social financing data had both positive and negative aspects. The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated on Friday, leading to a decline in market risk appetite [3][11]. - Overseas zinc ore inflows increased, raw materials remained abundant, and smelters' bargaining power recovered. The internal and external processing fees increased steadily. With the repair of profits and sufficient raw materials, the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end was smooth. It is expected that the supply of refined zinc will recover strongly in June, and the supply side will gradually loosen. On the demand side, galvanized pipe orders decreased, and galvanized structural part orders decreased marginally. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased significantly, but there was a lack of continuous export orders. Environmental inspections slightly affected the production of zinc oxide enterprises, and their operating rate decreased slightly [4][11]. - Overall, the Sino - US negotiation had no obvious changes, and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict increased macro - uncertainty. The market's risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the fundamentals maintained a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The zinc price center moved down. However, downstream restocking at low prices made the inventory - reduction rhythm fluctuate, and it was difficult for the zinc price to decline rapidly. It is expected that the zinc price will remain oscillating weakly, and continuous attention should be paid to macro risks and inventory changes [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From June 6th to June 13th, the SHFE zinc price decreased from 22,385 yuan/ton to 21,815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price decreased from 2,662.5 dollars/ton to 2,626.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 36 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.41 to 8.31. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1,546 tons to 45,466 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 5,975 tons to 131,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.22 million tons to 7.71 million tons. The spot premium increased from 150 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract ZN2507 of Shanghai zinc futures first declined and then rose. Affected by the continuous increase in inventory on Monday, short - sellers increased their positions, and the zinc price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton. However, downstream purchasing at low prices increased, and with the Sino - US negotiation and the increasing expectation of a rate cut, the macro - environment improved. The zinc price recovered the decline at the beginning of the week, closing at 21,815 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.55%. The zinc price center moved down on Friday night. Due to macro - uncertainty and high inventory, the LME zinc price remained weak, closing at 2,626.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 1.35% [6] - As of June 13th, in the Shanghai spot market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,185 - 22,370 yuan/ton, with a premium of 350 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream price was 22,205 - 22,340 yuan/ton, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream price was 22,190 - 22,390 yuan/ton, with a premium of 180 - 300 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream price was 22,190 - 22,390 yuan/ton, with a premium of 270 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract. As the inflow of imported zinc ingots increased and the downstream had some inventory after purchasing at low prices, the purchasing intensity weakened in the second half of the week, and traders lowered the spot premium. The market transaction was relatively dull [7] - As of June 13th, the LME zinc inventory was 131,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,975 tons. The SHFE inventory was 45,466 tons, a decrease of 1,546 tons from last week. As of June 12th, the social inventory was 7.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from Monday and 0.22 million tons from last Thursday. After the zinc price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton during the week, downstream purchasing at low prices led to a significant decline in inventory in many places, especially in Shanghai and Tianjin. The inventory in Guangdong changed little due to the slow downstream pick - up rhythm and normal arrivals during the week [8] - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides had a frank and in - depth dialogue, reached a principle agreement on the measure framework for implementing the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns. The US Federal Appellate Court extended the validity of Trump's tariffs, and a key hearing will be held at the end of July. US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and PPI and core PPI both increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with the core PPI growth rate hitting a new low in nearly a year [9] - China's CPI in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, and core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. In the first five months, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. In May, new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, the stock social financing growth rate was 8.7%, M2 increased by 7.9% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 2.3% year - on - year [10] 3. Industry News - As of the week ending June 13th, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,600 yuan/metal ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week; the imported zinc concentrate index was 53 dollars/dry ton, an increase of 2.65 dollars/dry ton compared to the previous week [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend chart of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio chart, the spot premium chart, the LME premium chart, the inventory charts of SHFE, LME, social, and bonded areas, the zinc ore import profit - loss chart, the smelter profit chart, the domestic refined zinc production chart, the refined zinc net import chart, and the downstream primary enterprise operating rate chart [13][15][17]

关税疑云未散，铜价小幅调整 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价高位回落，主因全球关税疑云未散，美国政府虽 然愿意延长7月8日的最后期限，但将对伙伴国发出信函说 明具体的贸易协议条款，恐遭伙伴国反制，贸易局势不确 定性仍然较大；此外，中美二轮经贸谈判达成战略性框架 协议的乐观预期也在逐步消化，鲍威尔及美联储官员均表 示当前的货币政策是经济不确定性背景下的最优方案，而 就业市场近期的疲态也体现了美国经济的滞涨风险，海外 宏观对铜价有承压作用。基本面来看，卡莫阿重启但下调 产量预期近3成，全球显性库存持续下降，洋山铜仓单溢 价高企，国内库存低位震荡，盘面近月B结构收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 铜周报 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the weakening of US high - frequency employment data and the intensification of the Middle - East geopolitical situation have increased market risk - aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts. Domestically, the A - share market is in a sideways shock, and attention should be paid to the release of May financial and economic data [2][3]. - Precious metals are boosted by factors such as the decline in US inflation and geopolitical risks. Gold is expected to maintain a high - volatility trend, while silver may have short - term profit - taking pressure but its catch - up rally is still worth expecting [4][5]. - The copper price is expected to fall from a high and enter an adjustment phase due to trade policy disturbances, although supply - side tightness can support the medium - term price [6][7]. - The aluminum price is in a favorable pattern due to factors such as the slowdown of inflation, the decline of inventory to a low level, and the weakening of the US dollar index [8][9]. - The alumina price is in a short - term stalemate and shows an oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the realization of supply increments and cost support [10][11]. - The zinc price is in a weak operation, with the decline trend slowed down due to inventory reduction, but the fundamental weak pattern remains unchanged [12]. - The lead price is oscillating strongly in the short term, with support from supply restrictions and pressure from inventory accumulation and weak consumption [13]. - The tin price is expected to maintain an oscillating and convergent trend, and attention should be paid to inventory data [14]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to continue its low - level weak oscillation as the industry enters the off - season and social inventory rises slightly [15][16]. - The lithium carbonate price may reach a new low in the near future, but the movement of in - market funds needs to be observed [17][18]. - The nickel price is oscillating at a low level, with no significant new drivers in the short term [19][20]. - The oil price is oscillating, and if the sixth round of US - Iran talks releases a mild signal, the oil price may fall from a high [21]. - The steel price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the weak supply - demand situation [22]. - The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure as the spot market is weak and port inventory increases [23][24]. - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to stage adjustments [25][26]. - The palm oil price may oscillate in the short term, supported by factors such as the increase in India's import volume [27][28]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented, including both domestic (SHFE) and international (LME) markets [29]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, data such as the closing prices of SHFE and LME copper, warehouse receipts, inventory, spot quotes, and price spreads are provided and compared between June 12 and June 11 [30]. - Similar data for nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean and rapeseed meal are also presented and compared for different time points [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37].