宏观经济 | 专题报告 "TACO"信仰淡化关税风险定价 ——海外札记 20250603 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。政策不确定性。 ⚫ 20250524-20250531，受到关税缓和、AI 龙头财报驱动，全球市场继续反弹：美国 股市小幅回升，纳指、标普 500 分别收涨 2.01%和 1.88%。周中日本长期主权债拍 卖再度遇冷，市场在等待日银态度，长债收益率下降后回升，但同期美债收益率企 稳回落。商品价格普遍继续回调，天然气价格回落 7.06%，布油收跌 3.35%，黄金 收跌 1.57%。年初至今，美国-非美再平衡趋势仍在延续。德国、香港仍在全球股市 当中领涨。 ⚫ 经济基本面：美国 5 月软指标反弹，4 月投资端下行。5 月美国咨商会消费者信心超 预期改善，由前值 85.7 上升至 98，这期调查多数结果是在 5 月 12 日中美谈判后收 集的，一定程度上印证了 5 月中美关税缓和将会支撑经济短期修复。 ⚫ 耐用品订单环比回落，4 月耐用品订单环比录得-6.3%。此外，剔除波动较大的国防 和飞机后核心资本货物新订单 4 月环比下降 1.3%。企业端数据反映出特朗普的关税 政策对企业未来预 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [9] Core Viewpoints - The wind power bidding data from January to May 2025 shows a prosperous trend, with a total scale of approximately 64.46 GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of nearly 20% [9] - International bidding maintains a high growth trend, with wind turbine exports expected to activate new capacity, as April exports reached 134 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 49.31% [9] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 22.7% increase in domestic public bidding, indicating a potential shift from a "cycle" to a growth phase for the industry [9] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The land wind cycle is recovering from the bottom, with a focus on companies like Goldwind Technology (002202), Mingyang Smart Energy (601615), and others in the wind power supply chain [4] - The offshore wind cycle is poised for improvement, with recommendations for companies like Dongfang Cable (603606) and Zhenjiang Co., Ltd. (603507) [4] Industry Statistics - In Q1 2025, the domestic public bidding market added 28.6 GW, with onshore capacity at 27.8 GW and offshore at 0.8 GW, indicating a positive outlook for industry demand [9][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company is experiencing stable revenue growth, with a profit turning point already evident [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, while net profit estimates have been revised upwards [2] - The target price is set at 19.74 CNY, based on a PE valuation of 21X for 2025 [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 24,531 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 15.5% [4] - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26,497 million CNY, 29,649 million CNY, 33,012 million CNY, and 36,383 million CNY respectively, with growth rates of 8.0%, 11.9%, 11.3%, and 10.2% [4] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,166 million CNY, with a projected increase to 1,073 million CNY in 2025 [4] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 35% in the coming years, with a slight decrease in 2024 [4] Business Expansion and Strategy - The company continues to expand its retail business, with a significant increase in the number of stores, including 907 new self-built stores and 420 acquired stores in 2024 [9] - The retail business generated 219.2 billion CNY in 2024, accounting for 82.7% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 36.6% [9] - The company is actively developing its new retail business, achieving an 80.4% coverage rate for O2O delivery services by the end of 2024 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company is experiencing stable revenue growth, with a profit turning point already evident [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, while sales expense ratios have been increased, predicting net profits of 1.073 billion, 1.247 billion, and 1.395 billion yuan respectively for those years [2] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 24.531 billion yuan, 2024A: 26.497 billion yuan (YoY +8.0%), 2025E: 29.649 billion yuan (YoY +11.9%) [4] - **Net Profit**: - 2023A: 1.166 billion yuan, 2024A: 915 million yuan (YoY -21.6%), 2025E: 1.073 billion yuan (YoY +17.3%) [4] - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2023A: 1.02 yuan, 2024A: 0.80 yuan, 2025E: 0.94 yuan [4] - **Gross Margin**: - 2023A: 35.9%, 2024A: 34.3%, 2025E: 35.0% [4] - **Net Margin**: - 2023A: 4.8%, 2024A: 3.5%, 2025E: 3.6% [4] - **Return on Equity**: - 2023A: 17.9%, 2024A: 13.3%, 2025E: 14.3% [4] Business Expansion and Strategy - The company opened 907 new self-built stores and acquired 420 stores in 2024, with a total of 16,553 stores by the end of the year [9] - Retail business revenue reached 219.2 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the expansion of direct-operated stores and new openings [9] - The company is actively developing new retail business, achieving an 80.4% coverage rate for O2O delivery services by the end of 2024 [9]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5%, slightly up from 49% in April[5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, down from 50.4%[5] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.4% from 50.2%[5] Group 2: Sector Performance - In May, the production and new orders PMI were 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively, indicating improvements[5] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors showed PMIs of 50.9% and 51.2%, both in the expansion zone[5] - The raw materials sector PMI was at 47%, indicating insufficient production and demand[5] Group 3: Export and Import Trends - New export orders PMI rose to 47.5% from 44.7%, signaling a key demand recovery[5] - Import PMI also increased to 47.1% from 43.4%, reflecting a significant rebound[5] - Despite improvements, external trade orders are expected to have limited long-term impact due to high tariffs[5] Group 4: Business Size Impact - Large enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, while medium and small enterprises recorded 47.5% and 49.3%, respectively[5] - Large enterprises were crucial for the PMI rebound, with their production and demand indices returning above the neutral line[5] Group 5: Price Stability and Service Sector - The factory price and major raw material purchase price PMIs were 44.7% and 46.9%, indicating price stability[5] - The service sector showed slight recovery with business activity and new orders indices at 50.2% and 46.6%[5]

Group 1: Legal and Judicial Developments - On May 29, the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled that Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, marking a judicial constraint on Trump's executive power in trade policy[1] - The ruling emphasizes the constitutional principle of separation of powers, highlighting the legal controversy surrounding Trump's tariff policies and their impact on the U.S. trade governance system[1] - Although the CIT ruling has nationwide effect, the Trump administration can delay its implementation through appeals or by invoking other legal grounds[1] Group 2: Tariff Implications and Future Actions - Following the CIT ruling, the Trump administration filed an appeal, and the appellate court allowed Trump to continue imposing import tariffs, with responses due by June 5 and June 9[2] - Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% starting June 4, disrupting ongoing negotiations with trade partners like Canada and the EU[1] - The ability to delay the execution of the CIT ruling may influence the establishment of a normalized tariff mechanism, with the Justice Department seeking a long-term stay on the ruling[2] Group 3: Constitutional and Legislative Concerns - The core debate centers on whether Trump's use of IEEPA to impose tariffs exceeds the constitutional powers granted to the presidency, as only Congress has the authority to levy tariffs[3] - The lawsuit was initiated by Arizona, with multiple states participating, reflecting a broader concern over executive overreach in tariff imposition[3] - The ruling indirectly criticizes Congress for allowing the expansion of presidential powers and calls for clearer legislative boundaries regarding tariff authority[4] Group 4: Alternative Taxation Strategies - The Trump administration may explore other taxation methods to circumvent judicial constraints, including tariffs based on national security under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962[4] - Potential expansion of tariffs to other industries, such as semiconductors and lumber, could be pursued under existing trade laws[4] - The outcome of the appeals process may affect the leverage Trump has in trade negotiations, with partners likely to pause concessions until a definitive judicial ruling is made[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price of 172.90 HKD [6][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Meituan's performance in Q1 2025 was better than expected, driven by growth in its ecosystem and overseas expansion despite short-term impacts from delivery subsidies [12][21]. - The report projects a high single-digit growth in food delivery orders, with improvements in user engagement and supply-side offerings contributing to revenue growth [2][9]. - Instant retail is expected to see approximately 30% growth in order volume, with strong brand operations enhancing performance [3][9]. - The hotel and travel segment is forecasted to grow over 30% in transaction value, with ongoing category expansion and improved consumer recognition through membership benefits [4][9]. - New business segments, particularly community group buying, are showing signs of reduced losses, and international expansion efforts are being actively pursued [4][9]. Summary by Sections Food Delivery - Q1 2025 food delivery orders are expected to grow in the high single digits, with improved user stickiness and frequency of purchases [2]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to outpace order volume growth due to enhanced advertising monetization and effective subsidies [2]. - Meituan plans to invest 100 billion CNY over the next three years to promote high-quality development in the industry [2]. Instant Retail - Q1 2025 instant retail orders are projected to grow by about 30%, with over 500 million transaction users and a significant increase in non-food orders [3]. - The establishment of over 30,000 instant warehouses is expected to enhance order volume contributions [3]. Hotel and Travel - The hotel and travel segment is expected to see a GTV growth of over 30% in Q1 2025, with ongoing product category expansion [4]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to be lower than GTV growth due to advertising revenue impacts [4]. New Business and International Expansion - New business revenue reached 22.2 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [4]. - Meituan's community group buying segment is expected to continue reducing losses, while international expansion plans include significant investments in markets like Brazil [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a revenue of 385.2 billion CNY for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [13]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at 36.9 billion CNY, with an EPS of 6.04 CNY [10][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [10][18]. Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have slightly decreased this week, but the focus remains on agricultural chemicals due to the ongoing spring farming season [10][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy [10][18]. - Recommendations include companies like Wanhua Chemical, Huangma Technology, Runfeng Co., Guoguang Co., and Hualu Hengsheng, highlighting their respective strengths and market positions [10][18]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of May 30, Brent oil price decreased by 1.35% to $63.90 per barrel, with concerns about supply growth impacting the market [14]. - U.S. crude oil commercial inventory stood at 440.4 million barrels, a weekly decrease of 2.8 million barrels [14]. - Among 188 monitored chemical products, hydrochloric acid saw the highest weekly price increase of 35.4%, while acrylic acid experienced the largest decline of 9.7% [15][16]. Price and Spread Changes - The top three products with the highest weekly price increases were hydrochloric acid (up 35.4%), liquid chlorine (up 21.8%), and international potassium chloride (up 8.4%) [10][15]. - The highest price spread increases were seen in the following products: BDO spread (up 71.6%), lithium hexafluorophosphate spread (up 54.9%), and carbon black spread (up 39.3%) [10][19]. - Monthly price changes showed hydrochloric acid leading with a 43.4% increase, while the BDO spread saw a significant monthly increase of 588.0% [10][19].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | | 利空或已提前反应，6 月债市或存机会 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 建议在 3Y 左右做下沉挖掘：固定收益市场 | 2025-05-27 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 存单利率重回下行时间点或早于预期：固 | 2025-05-26 | | 定收益市场周观察 | | | 降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化？ | 2025-05-22 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the US debt crisis and tariff shocks, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in the gold sector [12]. - Steel prices are experiencing a significant decline, with the overall price index dropping by 1.90% [37]. - The supply and prices of new energy metals are both on the decline, indicating potential challenges in this sector [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The US debt crisis and tariff shocks are leading to a focus on gold investment opportunities, with expectations of continued high gold prices due to market conditions [12]. - Steel consumption has slightly increased, but overall prices are down, with rebar prices falling to 3217 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.94% [13][37]. 2. Steel Industry - Steel consumption for rebar reached 2.49 million tons, a slight increase of 0.63% week-on-week [17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 933 thousand tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar steel shows divergence, with long process profitability slightly increasing while short process profitability decreased [32]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in April 2025 was 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.87% [41]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 61,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.17% [50]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper smelting fees (TC) have slightly increased, with the current fee at -43.50 USD/thousand tons, up 1.69% week-on-week [61]. - The overall production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang decreasing by 3.79% [15].