Report Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation, which may lead to more cautious monetary policies and increased market volatility [13]. - The US economic slowdown and the impact of export restrictions on corporate earnings may cause the stock market to remain weak [21]. - In the bond market, the overall situation is bullish before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven, but the upward trend may be volatile [24]. - In the commodity market, most commodities are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, showing weak or volatile trends [25][33][53]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US retail sales in March increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since January 2023. Powell said that tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation [12][13]. - Gold prices reached a new high, and the stock market declined significantly. The tariff issue is the main trading logic in the market, and risk - aversion sentiment drives funds into gold [13]. - Short - term market sentiment is over - bullish, and risks need to be noted [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - As of February, 14 US states had more unemployed people than job vacancies, the highest in 14 years. The US may relax the repayment requirements for Ukraine's aid [14][15]. - Powell is worried that the Fed may be caught between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. The market risk appetite has weakened, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell reiterated that the Fed will wait and see before taking action. The H20 chip of NVIDIA faces a cost of $5.5 billion due to export restrictions [19][20]. - The market risk appetite has deteriorated, and the stock index is expected to remain weak [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's GDP in Q1 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 104.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.44 billion yuan on the day [23][24]. - Although economic indicators in Q1 showed signs of stabilization, there are still challenges in the future. The bond market is in a bullish trend before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven [24]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in Q1 2025 was 67.844 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased by 7.05% month - on - month. The short - term trend of the oil market is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [27][28]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment from January to March increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to factors such as tariffs and weak demand [29][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to decline, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The terminal demand is not optimistic [35]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in northern ports has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The price of old - crop corn may be driven up after the May 05 contract delivery [37]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Overseas alumina market transactions are active, and prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Santa Cruz copper project has obtained financing intentions, and establishing a joint venture may be a way to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine [40][41]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Junda Co., Ltd.'s Q1 revenue decreased by 49.52% year - on - year, with a net loss. The polysilicon price may be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the PS2507 contract [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project in Shaanxi is under environmental assessment. The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Jiuwu Hi - tech and Zhongke Chun cui signed a strategic cooperation agreement. Lithium prices may stabilize in the short term, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the medium - term [47][48]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some lead alloy smelting enterprises have reduced production by 30%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions [50]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Zhuzhou Smelter Group's zinc production in 2024 was 642,500 tons, and Luoping Zinc & Electricity plans to produce 80,000 tons of zinc ingots in 2025 [51][52]. - Zinc prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [53]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has adjusted the nickel ore royalty. Nickel prices may be supported, and it is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low prices [54][56]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price of LPG in Shandong decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to policy trends and reduce risk exposure [57][58]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased slightly. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [59][60]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The long - term impact of tariffs on the textile and clothing industry is negative [61][62]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply has increased, and the demand is fair. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. It is recommended to wait and see due to the macro - impact [64][66]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder is slightly weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and domestic stimulus policies [67]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene enterprise inventories decreased. The potential impact on demand may not be fully priced in, and the valuation has room to decline [68][70]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea enterprise inventories increased. The market is affected by supply and demand, and the 05 contract may be under pressure [71][72]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. With the increase in supply and the possible decline in photovoltaic glass production, it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [73]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. The near - month contract may be under pressure, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [74].

洁美科技 002859.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 营收稳健增长，离型膜放量在即 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 0.69/0.91/1.23 元（原 25 年预测为 1.17 元， 主要下调收入及毛利率预测，上调研发费用率预测），根据可比公司 25 年 30 倍 PE 估值水平，对应目标价为 20.70 元，维持给予买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游需求复苏不及预期、客户拓展不及预期、国产化率不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,572 | 1,817 | 2,268 | 2,743 | 3,301 | | 同比增长 (%) | 20.8% | 15.6% | 24.8% | 21.0% | 20.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 286 | 216 | 332 | 435 | 591 | | 同比增长 (%) | 60.9% | -24.5% | 53.5% | 31.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.47 CNY, based on a 33x PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue decline of 4.3% to 2.026 billion CNY and a net profit drop of 27% to 229 million CNY. However, there is an expectation for demand recovery in 2025, which could lead to gradual performance improvement [2][8]. - The company is focusing on dual drivers for growth, emphasizing technological advancements and expanding service capabilities, particularly in emerging industries [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 2,117 million CNY - 2024: 2,026 million CNY (down 4.3%) - 2025: 2,455 million CNY (up 21.2%) - 2026: 2,883 million CNY (up 17.4%) - 2027: 3,476 million CNY (up 20.6%) [3][11] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 314 million CNY - 2024: 229 million CNY (down 27.0%) - 2025: 298 million CNY (up 30.1%) - 2026: 372 million CNY (up 24.5%) - 2027: 497 million CNY (up 33.6%) [3][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.62 CNY - 2024: 0.45 CNY - 2025: 0.59 CNY - 2026: 0.73 CNY - 2027: 0.98 CNY [3][11] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: - 2023: 45.6% - 2024: 44.5% - 2025: 44.2% - 2026: 44.2% - 2027: 44.4% [3][11] - Net Margin: - 2023: 14.8% - 2024: 11.3% - 2025: 12.2% - 2026: 12.9% - 2027: 14.3% [3][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: - 2023: 26.8 - 2024: 36.7 - 2025: 28.2 - 2026: 22.7 - 2027: 17.0 [3][11] - Price-to-Book (PB) Ratio: - 2023: 3.3 - 2024: 3.2 - 2025: 2.8 - 2026: 2.6 - 2027: 2.3 [3][11]

洁美科技 002859.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 营收稳健增长，离型膜放量在即 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 0.69/0.91/1.23 元（原 25 年预测为 1.17 元， 主要下调收入及毛利率预测，上调研发费用率预测），根据可比公司 25 年 30 倍 PE 估值水平，对应目标价为 20.70 元，维持给予买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游需求复苏不及预期、客户拓展不及预期、国产化率不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,572 | 1,817 | 2,268 | 2,743 | 3,301 | | 同比增长 (%) | 20.8% | 15.6% | 24.8% | 21.0% | 20.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 286 | 216 | 332 | 435 | 591 | | 同比增长 (%) | 60.9% | -24.5% | 53.5% | 31.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.11 CNY based on a projected EPS of 2.01, 2.16, and 2.41 CNY for 2025-2027 respectively [4][7]. Core Views - The company's main products are still experiencing a bottoming out in market conditions, but the profitability is supported by the fertilizer and new materials segments, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [11]. - The company achieved a revenue of 34.226 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.6%, and a net profit of 3.903 billion CNY, up 9.1% year-on-year [11]. - The report highlights that the chemical industry is currently at a low point in the economic cycle, but the company is leveraging its advantages in product offerings to improve performance [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 27.26 billion CNY in 2023, 34.226 billion CNY in 2024, and expected growth to 35.96 billion CNY in 2025, 40.608 billion CNY in 2026, and 41.734 billion CNY in 2027 [6]. - The company's gross profit margin is projected to improve from 18.7% in 2024 to 21.3% in 2025, while the net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 11.9% in 2025 [6]. - The report indicates a significant decrease in operating profit in 2023, down 41.8% year-on-year, but forecasts a recovery with a projected increase of 18.6% in 2025 [6].

华鲁恒升 600426.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | 盈利基本盘扎实，新材料项目贡献增长 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 目前公司主要产品景气仍在持续磨底，我们根据产品价格及价差情况对公司营收和 利润进行调整，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 2.01、2.16、2.41 元（原 25 年预测为 2.60 元），根据可比公司 25 年 11 倍市盈率，给以公司目标价 22.11 元 并维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 产品和原材料价格波动风险；项目建设不及预期风险。 | 公司主要财务信息 | | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 27,260 | 34,226 | 35,960 | 40,608 | 41,734 | | 同比增长 (%) | -9.9% | 25.6% | 5.1% | 12.9% | 2.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,428 | 5,008 | 5,942 | 6,35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 117.25 CNY based on a projected average PE of 67 for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share (EPS), with projections of 1.75 CNY, 2.52 CNY, and 3.29 CNY for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively, reflecting adjustments in main business revenue [2][11]. - The company has experienced a substantial increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue reaching 3.64 billion CNY (up 59% year-on-year) and net profit at 1.41 billion CNY (up 213% year-on-year) [10]. - The company is a leader in the DDR5 memory interface chip market, with its DDR5 chip shipments surpassing those of DDR4, indicating a strong competitive position [10]. Financial Information Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2.29 billion CNY in 2023 to 9.65 billion CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -38%, 59%, 50%, 37%, and 30% respectively [4]. - **Profitability**: Operating profit is expected to increase from 472 million CNY in 2023 to 4.24 billion CNY in 2027, with significant growth rates of -67%, 199%, 52%, 47%, and 34% [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 451 million CNY in 2023 to 3.77 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of -65%, 213%, 42%, 44%, and 31% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share**: EPS is projected to increase from 0.39 CNY in 2023 to 3.29 CNY in 2027 [4]. - **Margins**: The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 61.5% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to be approximately 39.1% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.98% to 177 million yuan [9] - New orders continued to grow rapidly, with a total of 1.786 billion yuan in new orders signed in 2024, an increase of 18.74% year-on-year, and a backlog of 3.273 billion yuan, up 27.57% year-on-year, providing a solid foundation for future growth [9] - The company emphasizes innovation in drug research and development, with R&D expenses increasing by 39% to 172 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 15.9% of revenue [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) has been adjusted downwards to 1.98 yuan for 2025 and 2.36 yuan for 2026, with a new estimate of 2.95 yuan for 2027 [2] - The reasonable valuation level for the company is set at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 29 times for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 57.42 yuan [2] Financial Information Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1.078 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.753 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 15.7%, 22.0%, 15.6%, and 15.3% [4] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 50.5% to 50.8% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to improve from 16.8% in 2025 to 18.9% in 2027 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 18.4% in 2025 to 19.6% in 2027 [4]

家用产品表现亮眼，海外稳健增长 ——普门科技 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 24 年报，我们下调收入预测，上调毛利率预测，预测公司 25-27 年 EPS 分 别为 0.91/1.06 /1.18 元（前值为 2025 年 1.19 元，2026 年 1.51 元）。基于可比公 司估值，给予 25 年 19 倍 PE，目标价为 17.29 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 研发进展不及预期的风险，产品销售不及预期的风险，行业竞争加剧的风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,146 | 1,148 | 1,294 | 1,465 | 1,650 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.5% | 0.2% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 12.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 345 | 378 | 413 | 492 | 547 | | 同比增长 (%) | 34.6% | 9.5% | 9.3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [7][51]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in Q2 is experiencing a downturn, with a focus on whether unexpected policies will be introduced to stabilize the market [2]. - In 2025, under the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," it is expected that the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will increase, and urban village renovations will accelerate [3][51]. - The report highlights that the sales volume of new homes in 44 major cities is approximately 20,000 units, showing a 23% increase month-on-month (excluding the Spring Festival effect), which is higher than the 13% increase in 2024 but lower than the 24% increase in 2023 [51]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 15th week, the real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 1.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [11]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 3750.52 with a weekly decline of 2.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2190.21 with a weekly decline of 1.7% [11][15]. Sales Data - In the 15th week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 28.8% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities increased by 15.3% to 21,000 units [16]. - Inventory in 18 major cities increased to 842,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 23.7 months, indicating a slight increase in inventory pressure [23]. Policy Developments - Local policies include Guangzhou's "land acquisition and immediate construction" model, Fuzhou's new housing provident fund regulations, and Hainan's increase in maximum loan limits for new self-occupied housing [13][21]. - Nanjing has introduced a government subsidy program to promote housing consumption through "old-for-new" exchanges [21]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Poly Developments (600048) and China Merchants Shekou (001979), while suggesting to pay attention to China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), and others [3][51]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in real estate intermediary platforms like Beike-W (02423) that will benefit from policy support and increased market activity [3][51].