Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to restart interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, as the job market stabilizes and inflation has not yet shown a downward turning point [2] - The report highlights that New Oriental's FY26Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with net revenue of $1.191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, and a net profit of $45.45 million, up 42.3% year-on-year [5] - The report projects an upward revision of New Oriental's net profit forecasts for FY26 to FY28, with estimates raised to $497 million, $585 million, and $680 million respectively, reflecting a 13%, 14%, and 17% increase [5] Group 2 - The A-share stock selection for February 2026 includes companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Hikvision, and China Life, indicating a focus on stable holdings during the holiday period [3] - The report notes that the bond market is increasingly influenced by non-bank financial sectors, emphasizing the need for macro-prudential mechanisms to address risks in the bond market [4]

公司研究 FY26Q2 业绩超预期增长，全年收入指引上调彰显信心 ——新东方-S（9901.HK）FY26Q2 业绩点评 买入（上调） 当前价：44.70 港元 2026 年 1 月 29 日 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 15.80 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 706.39 | | 一年最低/最高(港元)： | 30.85/47.31 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 14.06% | 股价相对走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 25/1 25/2 25/3 25/4 25/5 25/6 25/7 25/8 25/9 25/10 25/11 25/12 26 ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 总量研究 一季度美联储重启降息概率不高 ——2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 如期降息，扩表在途——2025年12月FOMC 会议点评（2025-12-11） 美联储有望开启新一轮宽松周期——2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-09-18） 美联储在等待关税"冲击"——2025 年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-06-20） 美联储短期强硬，下半年或更为主动—— 2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-05-08） 美联储"降息的心"始终不变——2025 年 3 月 FOMC 会议点评（2025-03-20） 美联储降息窗口正徐徐打开——2024年3月 FOMC 会议点评（2024-03-21） 美联储为何主动向市场预期靠拢？——2023 年 12 月 FOMC 会议 ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 总量研究 近期"新设货币政策工具"的猜想 ——2026 年 1 月 29 日利率债观察 要点 1、近期"新设货币政策工具"的猜想 近期，部分市场投资者猜测央行有可能会创设新的货币政策工具，用于更加精准 地调控货币市场利率。但我们认为，当前货币市场利率运行稳健，创设该工具的 必要性并不大。从利率水平上看，自 2025 年下半年至昨日（注：2026 年 1 月 28 日），DR001 的均值为 1.35%，处于 1.4%的 7D OMO 利率（注：即政策利 率）附近。从利率的波动率上看，2025 年 DR001 的标准差为 0.20，亦处于自 2019 年以来的较低水平。而且，当前我国已经类似的工具。人民银行于 2024 年 7 月 8 日设立了隔夜期限的临时正、逆回购操作，操作利率为 7D OMO 利率 减点 20bp 和加点 50bp。即便需要强化临时正、逆回购工具对 DR001 的"框定" 作用，那么直接压缩上述减、加点幅度即可，而没有必要再创设出个类似的工具。 退一步讲，倘若此时创设出这样一个工具，那么对债券市场利率亦不会有明显影 响。DR 利率是债券市场估值的锚，近些年 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The total scale of convertible bonds held by funds decreased to 308.256 billion yuan at the end of Q4 2025, down by 8.362 billion yuan from Q3 2025 [2] - The banking sector continues to have a large scale of convertible bonds held by funds, with significant holdings in the power equipment, basic chemicals, electronics, and agriculture sectors [2] - The largest increase in individual convertible bonds held by funds was seen in the Xingye convertible bond, while the non-ferrous metals sector experienced the most significant reduction in holdings [2] Group 2: Banking Sector Insights - Corporate loans acted as a stabilizing force, with double-digit growth maintained in technology sectors, while real estate loans continued to show negative growth [3] - Qingdao Bank reported a revenue of 14.6 billion yuan for 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 5.2 billion yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year, marking the successful completion of a three-year strategic plan [3] - The bank's asset expansion intensity has increased, with loans maintaining double-digit growth and a reduction in non-performing loans, indicating strong risk compensation capabilities [3] Group 3: Energy Sector Developments - China National Petroleum Corporation emphasized its role in energy supply security and outlined key tasks for the current and future periods during its 2026 work meeting [4] - The integrated advantages of the China National Petroleum Corporation's entire industry chain suggest investment opportunities in companies such as China National Petroleum, Kunlun Energy, and others [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All - A Index rising, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 1.32%. The equity and convertible bond markets fluctuated at high levels with weaker overall gains than in Q3. The conversion premium rate increased from 44.73% on September 30 to 46.57% on December 31 [1][10]. - At the end of Q4 2025, the scale of convertible bonds held by funds decreased, but the proportion of the market value of convertible bonds held by funds to the balance of the convertible bond market increased. Different - type funds had differentiated changes in the scale of convertible bonds held, with mixed - bond - type secondary funds increasing their holdings and passive - index - type bond funds reducing their holdings [2][11]. - Convertible bond funds' scale increased quarter - on - quarter. Their performance was weaker than the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index in Q4 2025. The average return rate was 0.86%, and the median return rate was 1.09% [3][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Q4 Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.22%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.01%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.32%. The conversion premium rate increased from 44.73% on September 30 to 46.57% on December 31 [1][10]. 3.2 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Behavior Analysis 3.2.1 Fund Holding Convertible Bond Total Scale Change - By the end of Q4 2025, the balance of the convertible bond market was 552.999 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.551 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter. The scale of newly issued convertible bonds was 15.035 billion yuan. The scale of convertible bonds held by funds was 308.256 billion yuan, a reduction of 8.362 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter, a 2.64% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The proportion of the market value of convertible bonds held by funds to the balance of the convertible bond market was 55.74%, a 3.71 - percentage - point increase from the end of Q3 2025 [11]. 3.2.2 Various Funds' Holding Convertible Bond Scale Change - In Q4 2025, mixed - bond - type secondary funds held the largest scale of convertible bonds (110.566 billion yuan), followed by mixed - bond - type primary funds (66.391 billion yuan) and passive - index - type bond funds (60.141 billion yuan). Mixed - bond - type secondary funds increased their holdings by 39.28 billion yuan, and mixed - bond - type primary funds increased by 16.07 billion yuan. Passive - index - type bond funds reduced their holdings by 90.87 billion yuan, and other types of funds also had different changes in holdings [15][19]. 3.2.3 Fund Positioning Behavior Analysis - **Fund Positioning Industry Distribution**: The top five industries with the largest scale of convertible bonds held in Q4 2025 were banking (55.014 billion yuan), power equipment (47.634 billion yuan), basic chemicals (24.739 billion yuan), electronics (24.298 billion yuan), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (17.188 billion yuan). Non - ferrous metals had the largest reduction in holdings (4.636 billion yuan), and the electronics industry had a relatively large increase in holdings (2.853 billion yuan) [23][24]. - **Fund Positioning Individual Bond Distribution**: Among the top 5 convertible bonds held by funds, 3 were bank - related (Industrial Bank Convertible Bond, Shanghai Bank Convertible Bond, and Chongqing Bank Convertible Bond). Industrial Bank Convertible Bond had the largest increase in holdings (1.905 billion yuan) [29][30]. - **Fund Holding Convertible Bond Rating**: AA - rated convertible bonds had the highest proportion (30.81%) among those held by funds [33]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Fund Holding Convertible Bond Behavior Analysis 3.3.1 Convertible Bond Fund Scale Change - By the end of Q4 2025, there were 38 existing convertible bond funds, with a holding scale of 51.287 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 2.15 billion yuan [34]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bond Fund Positioning Behavior Analysis - **Convertible Bond Fund Positioning Industry Distribution**: The convertible bond funds held the largest market value of convertible bonds in the power equipment industry (7.331 billion yuan). The banking industry had the largest increase in holdings (659 million yuan), and non - ferrous metals had the largest reduction in holdings (1.553 billion yuan) [35]. - **Convertible Bond Fund Performance**: In Q4 2025, the average return rate of convertible bond funds was 0.86%, the median return rate was 1.09%, and the average return rate of the top - ten convertible bond funds was 2.79%. Their performance was weaker than the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that corporate loans act as a stabilizing force, while real estate loans continue to experience negative growth. The total new RMB loans in 2025 reached 16.27 trillion, a decrease of 1.82 trillion year-on-year, with a year-end loan balance growth rate of 6.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter and 1.2 percentage points from the beginning of the year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Corporate Loans - By the end of 2025, corporate loan balances grew by 8.9% year-on-year, with a total of 15.2 trillion in new corporate loans, an increase of 1.3 trillion compared to the previous year. Key sectors such as technology, inclusive finance, and green finance maintained double-digit growth rates [5]. - The manufacturing sector saw a slight slowdown in medium to long-term loans, with a year-end balance growth of 6.6%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - High-tech enterprise loans reached a balance of 18.61 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, and small and medium-sized technology enterprise loans grew by 19.8% [5]. - Green loans maintained a growth rate of over 20%, with a year-end balance growth of 20.2% and a total of 7.7 trillion in new green loans for the year [5]. Real Estate Loans - By the end of 2025, real estate loan balances experienced a negative growth of 1.6%, dropping below 52 trillion, with a total decrease of 0.96 trillion for the year. The fourth quarter alone saw a reduction of 0.88 trillion [7][9]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on real estate loans in 2026 due to weak sales and high market inventory, alongside downward pressure on real estate prices [7]. Household Loans - Household loan balances grew by only 0.5% year-on-year, with a total increase of 0.44 trillion for the year, reflecting a decline in consumer demand [8][10]. - Business loans for households increased by 4%, but overall household loans saw a significant decrease in growth momentum, particularly in non-housing consumer loans, which grew by only 0.7% [10][15]. Infrastructure Loans - Infrastructure medium to long-term loans reached a balance of 43.7 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. The fourth quarter saw a significant increase in the proportion of infrastructure loans within corporate medium to long-term loans [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [1] Core Insights - The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has demonstrated significant resilience and competitive strength, achieving top-tier performance among state-owned enterprises for four consecutive years [4] - The strategic goal for the next five years is to fully realize high-quality development by 2030 and to establish a world-class enterprise [5] - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness and fulfill its responsibilities in ensuring national energy security and advancing modernization [6] Summary by Sections Strategic Goals - CNPC's chairman emphasized the importance of strategic goals to empower a better life through energy security, highlighting the company's achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - The company plans to implement a dual-phase strategy to achieve high-quality development and establish itself as a world-class enterprise by 2030 [6] Operational Highlights - In 2024, CNPC is projected to achieve a domestic crude oil production of 106.15 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, and a natural gas production of 158.6 billion cubic meters, up 3.8% [8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure in the refining and chemical sectors, with plans to produce over 2 million tons of new materials in 2024 [8] Reform and Transformation - CNPC is actively pursuing reforms to enhance its governance and operational efficiency, including the implementation of a divisional system to improve management effectiveness [9] - The company is committed to deepening its technological innovation and digital transformation to lead in smart development [9] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on several entities under CNPC, including China National Petroleum, Kunlun Energy, and China Oil Engineering, which are expected to benefit from the integrated advantages of the CNPC [10]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The profit cycle for industrial enterprises has entered an upward channel, with significant year-on-year profit growth in December despite high base pressure, indicating a recovery in volume, price, and profit margins [2] - Profit growth is primarily driven by upstream non-ferrous metals and midstream equipment manufacturing, linked to tightening global resource competition and effective domestic policies [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, a rebound in PPI readings and stabilization in investment are expected to support continued recovery in industrial profits, with profit distribution increasingly favoring midstream and upstream sectors [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The results of the mechanism electricity price bidding for new energy projects show significant differentiation, with some provinces still having downward space for future electricity prices [4] - Existing projects are seeing improved cash flow, and attention is drawn to the valuation recovery of leading companies in the sector [4] - The integration of wind, solar, hydrogen, and methanol is identified as a core path for new energy operators to explore a second growth curve [4] Group 3: Company Research - Anta Sports (2020.HK) plans to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA for a total consideration of €1.5 billion, funded by its own resources, with a PE ratio of 15 times based on PUMA's 2024 net profit [6] - This acquisition marks a significant milestone in Anta's multi-brand and global strategy, positioning the company as a minority shareholder in a leading global sports brand [6] - The EPS estimates for Anta for 2025-2027 are maintained at 4.69, 5.10, and 5.67 RMB, with a PE ratio of 15, 13, and 12 times respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [6] Group 4: Sector Focus - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) is focusing on a new industrial structure characterized by "one base, two wings, three chains, and four new" as part of its strategic development for 2026 [5] - The company benefits from an integrated full industrial chain advantage, with recommendations to focus on Sinopec, Sinopec Oilfield Service, and other related entities [5] - The report highlights the achievements of Sinopec in 2025 and outlines the goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the importance of capital expenditure and price stability in oil and gas [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [1] Core Views - Anta Sports announced its intention to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA SE for €15.06 billion (approximately ¥122.8 billion), at a price of €35 per share, representing a 62% premium over PUMA's closing price on January 26 [5] - The acquisition is seen as a significant milestone in Anta's multi-brand globalization strategy, enhancing its brand portfolio and market presence in Europe and globally [7][8] - PUMA, a globally recognized sports brand, faced challenges in 2025, with a revenue decline of 8.5% in the first three quarters, leading to a net loss of €3.1 billion [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Anta Sports is a leading global sports goods company with a diverse brand portfolio including Anta, Fila, Descente, and Amer Sports [7] - The acquisition of PUMA will complement Anta's existing brands and enhance its competitive position in the global sports market [8] Financial Performance - PUMA's revenue for 2024 was €8.82 billion (approximately ¥72.73 billion) with a net profit of €340 million (about ¥2.82 billion), reflecting a net profit margin of 3.9% [6] - Anta's projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at ¥4.69, ¥5.10, and ¥5.67 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [9] Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to leverage Anta's experience in brand management and retail operations to revitalize PUMA's brand value and market presence, particularly in China where PUMA's market share is currently low [8] - Anta aims to enhance its influence in the global sports market through this strategic investment, following its previous acquisition of Amer Sports [7][8]