2026 年 1 月 27 日 总量研究 "4.5%至 5%"的预期与长债的收益率 ——2026 年 1 月 27 日利率债观察 要点 1、"4.5%至 5%"的预期与长债的收益率 经济基本面变化超预期，不理性的预期引发市场快速波动，对当前的货币政策框 架理解不到位。 作者 分析师：张旭 执业证书编号：S0930516010001 010-58452066 zhang_xu@ebscn.com 近段时间，部分投资者预期 2026 年 GDP 增长目标将设定为"4.5%至 5%"， 我们亦认为这个预期兑现的概率是不低的。鉴于"4.5%至 5%"这个表述低于之 前"5%左右"的市场普遍预期，其成为了推动债券收益率下行的催化剂之一。 事实上，今年 1 月 7 日 10 年期国债收益率是 1.90%，至昨日（注：1 月 26 日） 已降至了 1.82%。 为何 GDP 增长目标预期值降低会催化收益率下行？这是因为部分投资者认为， 较低的经济增长目标对应于较低的利率水平。但我们认为，这个观点是值得商榷 的，因为其混淆了（调控者希望达到的）增长目标和（经济自身的）潜在增速两 个概念。无论是上文中提及的"4.5%至 5%" ...

当前价：76.35 港元 作者 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 2026 年 1 月 27 日 公司研究 大手笔收购 PUMA29%股权，多品牌全球化布局再一里程碑 ——安踏体育（2020.HK）拟收购公告点评 买入（维持） 分析师：孙未未 执业证书编号：S0930517080001 021-52523672 sunww@ebscn.com 分析师：朱洁宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070004 021-52523842 zhujieyu@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 27.97 | | 总市值(亿港元)： | 2135.24 | | 一年最低/最高(港 | 73.55-106.30 | | 元)： | | | 近 3 月换手率： | 32.2% | 股价相对走势 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -10.2 | -10.8 | -37.1 | | 绝 ...

Profit Growth - In December 2025, industrial enterprises' profit growth rebounded significantly to +5.3% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 13.1% in the previous month[4] - The cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to December 2025 was +0.6%, up from +0.1% for the first eleven months[2] - The cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to December 2025 was +1.1%, down from +1.6% for the first eleven months[2] Price and Profit Margin - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in December 2025 was 5.57%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points year-on-year[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth improved from -2.2% in November to -1.9% in December 2025[4] - The cumulative revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises from January to December 2025 was 5.31%, higher than 5.29% in the first eleven months[4] Structural Changes - Profit distribution is increasingly concentrated in upstream and midstream industries, while downstream sectors face pressure from rising costs[3] - The cumulative profit growth for the mining industry from January to December 2025 was -26.2%, an improvement from -27.2% in the first eleven months[13] - The cumulative profit margin for the manufacturing sector was 4.70%, up from 4.62% in the previous month[13] Market Dynamics - Private enterprises' cumulative profit growth stabilized at 0% in 2025, while state-owned enterprises saw a decline of -3.9%[26] - The inventory growth for industrial enterprises was 3.9% year-on-year in December 2025, down from 4.6% in November[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric equipment and new energy sector [6] Core Insights - The mechanism electricity bidding results show significant differentiation, with a general trend of "higher in the east, lower in the west" for the 2025-2026 incremental projects. Eastern regions have higher bidding limits and results, while western and northern regions face pressure on actual bidding results [1][11] - The internal rate of return (IRR) for wind and solar projects is estimated at around 8% and 6% respectively. There is potential for further decline in mechanism electricity prices in provinces with prices above 0.31 yuan/kWh, while regions like the Three Norths and Shandong are under significant pressure [2][11] - The profitability of existing projects is stabilizing, and cash flow is improving, which may lead to valuation recovery for leading companies in the sector [3][12] - Integrated projects involving wind, solar, hydrogen, and methanol are seen as a key path for new energy operators to explore new growth avenues, leveraging existing resources and optimizing consumption capabilities [4] Summary by Sections Mechanism Electricity Bidding Results - The bidding results for the 2025-2026 incremental projects reflect a clear differentiation based on regional factors, with eastern provinces achieving higher results compared to western provinces [1][11] - The average mechanism electricity price for solar projects is approximately 0.31 yuan/kWh, which is about 15% lower than the average coal benchmark price [23] Project Profitability and Internal Rate of Return - The IRR for wind and solar projects is estimated at 8% and 6% respectively, with potential for further price declines in certain provinces [2][11] - Specific regions like Zhejiang and Ningxia are projected to maintain IRRs above 6%, even with lower mechanism electricity prices [39][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading new energy operators such as Longyuan Power, Xintian Green Energy, and others actively exploring new growth paths [5][12]

2026 年 1 月 27 日 行业研究 开启二次创业新征程， 构建"一基两翼三链四新"产业新格局 ——中国石化集团跟踪报告之六 石油化工 增持（维持） 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 二、引领石化事业新发展，2026 年做好六项工作 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 两大石化集团实施战略重组，提升成品 油、贸易全产业链竞争力——中国石化集 团跟踪报告之五（2026-01-09） 要点 事件： 2026 年 1 月 26 日，中国石化集团公司 2026 年工作会议在京召开，总结 2025 年工作和"十四五"发展成就，研究提出"十五五"发展思路和目标任务，部署 2026 年重点工作。 点评： 一、全面开启二次创业新征程，奋力谱写新时代振兴石化新篇 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the petrochemical industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the initiation of a "second entrepreneurship" journey for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), focusing on high-quality development as the central task during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] - The strategic framework proposed includes "One Foundation, Two Wings, Three Chains, and Four New" to enhance the industry structure and competitiveness [4] - Sinopec aims to strengthen its core capabilities in oil, gas, and coal resources while promoting the development of new energy and materials [4][5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Sinopec's 2026 work meeting highlighted the achievements of 2025 and outlined the goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on high-quality development and strategic initiatives [3] Strategic Initiatives - Six strategic initiatives will be implemented during the 15th Five-Year Plan: 1. Innovation-driven strategy to enhance technological independence and market responsiveness [5] 2. Transformation and upgrading strategy focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green development [5] 3. Resource assurance strategy to strengthen the oil and gas supply chain [5] 4. Market expansion strategy centered on customer needs [5] 5. Cost leadership strategy to improve cost competitiveness [5] 6. Open cooperation strategy to enhance international operations [5] Key Focus Areas for 2026 - The report identifies six key battles for 2026, including safety and environmental protection, energy security, market marketing, quality and efficiency improvement, innovation in finance and technology, and governance reform [6] Financial Performance - In 2024, Sinopec reported total revenue of 3,138.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 57.8 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year [7] Competitive Advantages - Sinopec's integrated business model across the entire industry chain is highlighted as a competitive advantage, with significant investments in upstream, midstream, and downstream operations [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key companies within the industry, including Sinopec, Sinopec Engineering, and others, due to their strong market positions and growth potential [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Cloud (3896.HK) [6] Core Views - The cloud service industry is expected to undergo a valuation reshaping, driven by strong AI demand and cost pressures, leading to an imminent price increase across the sector [2] - Kingsoft Cloud is positioned to benefit from its unique ecosystem, particularly through its strategic partnership with Xiaomi, which enhances its AI capabilities and revenue potential [3] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 27 billion CNY in Q4 2025, representing a 22% year-on-year growth and a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase, primarily fueled by AI-driven public cloud business growth [1] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Kingsoft Cloud have been revised upwards for 2026 and 2027 to 121 billion CNY and 140 billion CNY respectively, reflecting an increase of 9% and 11% [4] - The expected revenue growth rates are 22.3% for 2025 and 26.6% for 2026, with a projected revenue of 9.522 billion CNY in 2025 and 12.060 billion CNY in 2026 [5] - The adjusted EBITDA margin is anticipated to be around 22% in Q4 2025, indicating sustained profitability [1] AI Business Growth - Kingsoft Cloud's AI business is entering a harvest phase, with expected revenue growth of 85% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 8.8 billion CNY [3] - The company has established a comprehensive AI training and deployment platform, enhancing its service offerings and operational efficiency [3] - The AI revenue is projected to maintain high double-digit growth into 2026, supported by ongoing demand from various sectors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark [4]. Core Insights - The UK has launched the "Warm Homes Plan," committing £15 billion in public funds to retrofit 5 million homes and assist 1 million families in energy poverty by 2030. This plan is expected to significantly boost demand for residential solar storage and heat pumps [1]. - The plan allocates £2.7 billion for subsidies and £2 billion for low-interest loans to support the purchase of residential solar storage and heat pump systems, alongside £5 billion for assistance to low-income households and £1 billion for heating network investments [1]. - The anticipated growth in the residential solar storage and heat pump sectors is substantial, with projections of 3 million new solar installations and over 450,000 heat pumps installed annually from 2026 to 2030 [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Residential Solar PV - By the end of 2025, the UK is expected to have a cumulative installation of 1.6 million residential solar PV systems, with less than 200,000 new installations in 2025. The "Warm Homes Plan" aims for an additional 3 million installations from 2026 to 2030, translating to an annual increase of 600,000 installations [2]. Residential Energy Storage - In 2025, the UK is projected to add 0.7 GWh of residential energy storage, equivalent to 70,000 units based on a 10 kWh per unit calculation. If 600,000 new solar PV systems are installed annually, with a storage integration rate of 50%, this would result in 300,000 new storage units each year, potentially increasing to 600,000 units if the integration rate reaches 100% [2]. Heat Pumps - The report indicates that approximately 60,000 heat pumps will be installed in 2024. The "Warm Homes Plan" targets an average annual installation of over 450,000 heat pumps from 2026 to 2030, representing a significant increase compared to 2024 [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the European and Australian residential storage markets, such as Airo Energy, GoodWe, Jinlang Technology, and Pylontech. It also highlights the potential for valuation increases in the residential storage sector and recommends low-valuation leading companies like Deye Technology [3]. Additionally, it advises attention to companies in the heat pump sector, such as Rujing Technology, and battery cell manufacturers like Penghui Energy, which may see improved profitability with unexpected demand increases [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price of oriented silicon steel has reached its lowest level since 2018, indicating potential market challenges [2] - The liquidity indicators show that gold prices have reached a historical high, with the London gold spot price at $4,981 per ounce, reflecting strong demand [11] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained in the medium to long term, which could lead to a recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for January 2026 is at 50.27, up 6.62% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.7 percentage points in December 2025, down 1.60 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The current London gold price is $4,981 per ounce, reflecting an 8.31% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate in January is expected to be at its highest level for the same period in five years [20] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.51%, up 0.03 percentage points week-on-week [39] - The report notes that the prices of titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide priced at 13,300 yuan per ton, up 0.76% week-on-week [76] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at 74.56%, up 1.12 percentage points [2] - The report indicates that the price of electrolytic aluminum is 24,130 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.54% increase [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 543,000 yuan per ton, up 6.37% from the previous week [2] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.62%, while the best-performing sector was oil and petrochemicals, which increased by 7.71% [4] - The PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December was 49.00%, up 1.4 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,208.75 points, down 0.09% [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.90%, up 0.20 percentage points [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The public utility sector saw a 2.27% increase this week, ranking 15th among 31 sectors, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84% [21]. - The total electricity market transaction volume for 2025 reached 66,394 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, accounting for 64.0% of total social electricity consumption [2][15]. - The peak electricity load in the country surpassed 1.4 billion kilowatts for the first time in winter, reaching 1.417 billion kilowatts due to a cold wave [2][15]. - The report highlights significant profit growth for companies like Qianyuan Power, which expects a net profit of 567-633 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160%-190% [10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The public utility sector's performance this week included a 2.71% increase in thermal power, a 7.21% increase in photovoltaic power, and a 4.56% increase in energy comprehensive services [21]. - Domestic and imported coal prices have decreased, with domestic coal prices dropping to below 700 yuan per ton [2][12]. Key Events - The report notes that the annual long-term contract bidding results are being disclosed, with expectations of reasonable outcomes due to the decline in coal prices [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price for 2025 is projected to be around 513.29 yuan per megawatt-hour, reflecting a slight increase compared to the previous year [11]. Company Performance - Companies like Longxin Technology and Guangdong Power A are expected to see significant profit growth, while Guangdong Power A anticipates a decline in profits by 21.45%-40.12% [10][11]. - The report suggests focusing on national thermal power operators such as Huaneng International and Guodian Power, which are expected to maintain stable dividends [3].