Economic Performance - In November 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.4%[6] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.5%, also above the expected 0.4%[5] - The consumer confidence index reached 54.0 in January 2026, up from 51.0 in October 2025 and 52.9 in November 2025, indicating improved consumer sentiment[23] Market Reactions - Following the release of retail data, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.09%, 0.53%, and 1.00% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3 basis points to 4.15%, while the 2-year yield fell by 2 basis points to 3.51%[2] Future Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to decline to 1.1% from 4.3% in Q3, but a rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in Q1 2026 due to a low base effect[8] - Tax refunds in Q1 2026 are projected to total between $100 billion and $150 billion, potentially boosting GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points[9] Interest Rate Projections - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve may first cut interest rates in June 2026, with a 47.0% probability of a 25 basis point reduction[26] - The likelihood of a government shutdown at the end of January 2026 is currently estimated at 30%, considered a low probability event[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [4][6]. Core Insights - The coating and developing equipment market is highly concentrated, with a pressing demand for domestic alternatives. The company is the only domestic provider capable of offering mass production front-end coating and developing equipment, positioning it well to benefit from this urgent need for domestic substitution [1]. - The semiconductor equipment market remains robust, with global sales expected to reach $115.7 billion in 2025, driven primarily by advanced logic and memory demand. The company is poised to benefit from this growth as domestic semiconductor equipment companies are likely to see increased bidding activity [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 990 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.35%, but overall orders showed a year-on-year increase. The front-end equipment orders accounted for 60% of total orders, with significant growth in orders for high-end chemical cleaning machines [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1,717 million yuan in 2023 to 3,508 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 39.42% [5][10]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 64 million yuan, a decrease of 81% from previous estimates, with projections of 255 million yuan for 2026 and 525 million yuan for 2027 [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decline to 0.32 yuan in 2025, before rebounding to 1.26 yuan in 2026 and 2.60 yuan in 2027 [5][10]. Market Position and Performance - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic market for advanced packaging and developing equipment, securing repeat orders from major clients such as TSMC and other leading domestic manufacturers [3]. - The company's financial metrics indicate a projected return on equity (ROE) of 15.14% by 2027, reflecting a recovery in profitability as the market conditions improve [12].

2026 年 1 月 15 日 公司研究 净利润增速稳健，不良率稳中略降 ——中信银行（601998.SH）2025 年业绩快报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：7.60 元 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-50578031 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 556.45 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 4,229.03 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 6.11/8.69 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 15.02% | 股价相对走势 资料来源：Wind | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -1.75 | 0.12 | -5.73 | | 绝对 | 2.43 | 3.06 | 18.39 | 资料来源：Wind 要点 事件： 不良贷款率较 3Q 末下降 1bp 至 1.15%，拨备 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates optimism for China's export performance in 2026, driven by high-tech products, integrated circuits, and automobiles, despite facing a high year-on-year comparison base [2] - The report highlights that the easing of inflation concerns in the U.S. is not sufficient to influence the interest rate cut schedule for the year, with a low probability of cuts in the first quarter [3] - The chemical industry is transitioning from mere digitization to intelligence under the guidance of national "AI+" policies, with companies adopting three main paths for implementation [4] Group 2 - The report provides a detailed analysis of the A-share market performance, noting a slight decline in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index showed positive growth [5] - It outlines the closing prices and percentage changes for various commodities, indicating a rise in gold, fuel, and copper prices, while also providing insights into the foreign exchange market with the USD/CNY exchange rate [5]

Export Performance - In December 2025, China's exports reached $357.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, surpassing the expected 2.2%[2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth for exports in 2025 was 5.5%[3] - High-tech products, integrated circuits, and automobiles were the main drivers of export growth, while labor-intensive products showed weak contributions[3] Import Trends - Imports in December 2025 totaled $243.64 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, up from 1.9% in November[2][18] - Key imports included copper and iron ore, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 33.2% and 10.1%[18] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for December 2025 was $114.14 billion, slightly up from $111.68 billion in the previous month[2] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the EU and ASEAN grew by 11.6% and 11.1% respectively, while exports to the US fell by 30.0%[5] - The combined share of exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN accounted for 42.6% of total exports[5] Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 remains optimistic, driven by fiscal expansion in major economies and alignment of China's competitive industries with global demand[22] - Potential impacts from easing US-China trade tensions and possible changes in tax policies in the EU and Japan are expected to have limited effects on exports[22] Risks - Risks include potential inflation in the US, high interest rates affecting global demand, and escalating international trade conflicts[25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the fusion energy industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [9]. Core Insights - The upcoming 2026 Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference in Hefei is expected to promote collaboration and innovation within the fusion industry, showcasing China's capabilities in magnetic confinement fusion [1]. - Significant experimental breakthroughs have been achieved in domestic fusion devices, including the EAST confirming the existence of a density-free zone and the successful long-pulse operation of the world's first high-temperature superconducting tokamak, Honghuang 70 [2]. - Multiple financing and construction advancements in fusion projects have been reported, including TMTG's plans to build the world's largest fusion power plant in the U.S. and significant funding rounds for domestic fusion startups [3]. - The fusion industry is anticipated to benefit from dual catalysts of policy support and positive industrial progress, with various projects in China and abroad showing promising developments [4]. Summary by Sections Research Developments - The EAST experiment confirmed methods for high-density operation in magnetic confinement fusion, published in the journal "Science Advances" [2]. - The Honghuang 70 achieved a 120-second steady-state long-pulse plasma operation, marking a significant milestone for commercial fusion devices [2]. Industrial Progress - TMTG announced plans to construct a major fusion power plant in the U.S. by 2026, following its merger with TAE Technologies [3]. - Domestic fusion projects, such as Dongsheng Fusion and the NTST device, have secured significant funding and are set to commence construction in the coming years [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with leading positions in the fusion supply chain, particularly those involved in vacuum chambers, magnet systems, power systems, and low-temperature systems [4].

2026 年 1 月 14 日 总量研究 通胀担忧缓和，但短期降息必要性不强 ——2025 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评 美国通胀温和上涨，为后续降息打开空间— — 2025 年 8 月美国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2025-09-12） 关税传导可控，降息预期升温——2025 年 7 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-08-13） 关税影响逐步显性化——2025 年 6 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-07-16） 美国通胀压力何时显现？——2025年5月美 国 CPI 数据点评（2025-06-12） 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 如何看待"失真"的美国通胀数据？——2025 年 11 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-12-19） 美国通胀不及预期，为降息铺平道路—— 2025 年 9 月美国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2025-10-25） 美国通胀继续回落， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical and new materials industry is set to drive the comprehensive "AI + manufacturing" transformation, as outlined in the State Council's policy document released in August 2025, which aims for deep integration of AI across six key sectors by 2027 [3][4] - The focus for the petrochemical industry is on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" through AI, utilizing large models and digital twin technologies to optimize various processes [5] - The report identifies three main pathways for chemical companies to implement AI: self-developed large models, third-party model integration, and investment in AI startups [13][14] Summary by Sections Policy Guidance - The State Council's document emphasizes the necessity for AI integration in the chemical industry, marking it as a compulsory aspect for achieving high-quality development [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's implementation opinions further detail goals for AI technology and its application in manufacturing by 2027 [4] AI Empowerment in Petrochemical Industry - AI's role in the petrochemical sector focuses on enhancing operational efficiency and safety through predictive maintenance and process optimization [5] - The establishment of high-quality data sets and infrastructure is crucial for supporting AI applications in the industry [5] AI Empowerment in New Materials Industry - The new materials sector aims to leverage AI for deep integration in research and development, enhancing capabilities in material design and synthesis [5] Implementation Pathways - **Self-Developed Large Models**: Companies like China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) are developing proprietary AI models to enhance their operational capabilities [9][10] - **Third-Party Model Integration**: WanHua Chemical collaborates with Huawei Cloud to implement AI solutions for predictive maintenance and operational efficiency [11] - **Investment in AI Startups**: Companies like Qicai Chemical are investing in AI startups to accelerate innovation in materials science [12][13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that excel in data utilization and AI integration, such as CNPC, Sinopec, and WanHua Chemical [14] - Attention is also drawn to companies involved in new materials and fine chemicals, which are expected to benefit significantly from AI-driven R&D advancements [14]

2026 年 1 月 14 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【银行】9 个热点问题看理财新叙事——银行理财 2025 年回顾与 2026 年展望(买入) 2025 年，受存款"脱媒"资金外溢、估值整改"浮盈"释放、拓展含权增厚收益等 多重因素提振，全市场理财规模预估增长 3.5 万亿左右至 33-34 万亿。展望 2026 年， 理财业务的运行逻辑可能有哪些新的变化？我们围绕 9 个热点问题从五个维度分析。 【房地产】2025 年核心 30 城新房成交面积同比-19%，成交均价同比+0.7%——光大 核心城市房地产销售跟踪（2025 年 12 月）(增持) 2025 年，核心 30 城新房成交面积同比-19%，成交均价同比+0.7%，其中北上广深 杭蓉成交均价 42,196 元/㎡，同比+2.6%，余下二线 24 城成交均价为 16,709 元/㎡， 同比-2.5%，城市分化进一步加深。随着供给侧逐步出清，部分信用优势明显的龙头 央国企地产将持续受益于竞争结构优化，实现经营业绩的企稳回升，推荐招商蛇口、 中国金茂、绿城服务等。 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector [5] Core Insights - In 2025, the total market wealth management scale is expected to grow by approximately 3.5 trillion to reach 33-34 trillion, driven by factors such as deposit disintermediation, the release of valuation adjustments, and the expansion of products with embedded rights [1][14][15] - For 2026, the growth of wealth management is projected to continue, albeit with potential fluctuations in the growth pace due to various market dynamics [21] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Scale - Deposit disintermediation remains a crucial support for wealth management scale growth, with a neutral estimate of an increase of around 3 trillion for 2026, leading to an expected year-end scale of 36-37 trillion [1][21] - The maturity of deposits over 2 years for listed banks is estimated at approximately 41 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of about 9 trillion, which may intensify the competition between deposits and wealth management products [24][21] Product Layout - The report highlights a focus on maintaining a stable base with low volatility while actively expanding products with embedded rights, predicting that wealth management could bring in 150-300 billion in equity market allocations in 2026 [2][61] - The "fixed income plus" wealth management products are expected to grow by 1.5 trillion in 2025, with a year-end scale increase of nearly 16% [2][52] Asset Allocation - There is a rigid allocation towards deposit-type assets, with a shift towards multi-asset strategies to enhance returns, while the potential for a shift in allocation from deposits to bond-type assets is being monitored [3][60] - The report anticipates a strong demand for short-term bond allocations, while the capacity for mid to long-term allocations may decrease, leading to a steepening yield curve [3][60] Wealth Management Operations - The performance benchmarks for wealth management are expected to face downward pressure, with potential liquidity concerns being minimal due to ample liquidity reserves and regulatory support [4][32] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with wealth management companies increasing their market share, driven by channel factors and the need for enhanced customer reach [4][5] Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the market share of wealth management companies is likely to continue rising, with distribution channels expanding into rural areas and non-licensed institutions gradually exiting the market [4][5]