Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the high-performance organic pigment industry, indicating a positive outlook for leading companies in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The high-performance organic pigment industry is experiencing favorable structural changes, with ongoing consolidation benefiting domestic alternatives. Major international players are divesting their pigment businesses due to tightening profit margins and stricter environmental regulations. This trend is expected to enhance the competitive position of leading domestic firms [1]. - The rapid development of organic pigments is leading to saturation in classic organic pigment production, resulting in declining prices and profit margins. High-performance organic pigments are emerging as a new trend in the industry, characterized by high technical barriers and limited competition from a few global chemical giants [1]. - Companies like Qicai Chemical and Baihehua are expanding their production capacities in high-performance organic pigments, indicating a strategic shift towards new materials and enhanced production capabilities [2][3]. Summary by Sections High-Performance Organic Pigments - The acquisition of German pigment business by Sudarshan Chemical is part of a broader trend of industry consolidation, which is favorable for domestic high-performance organic pigment production [1]. - The report highlights that leading companies are likely to benefit from the high technical barriers associated with high-performance organic pigments, as classic organic pigment capacities become oversaturated [1]. Company Performance - Qicai Chemical reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 28.75% and a net profit increase of 1035.48% in 2024 [2]. - Baihehua also showed strong performance with a revenue of 2.403 billion yuan, up 5.23% year-on-year, and a net profit increase of 46.45% [3]. - Xinkai Technology, which went public on April 15, 2024, achieved a revenue of 1.417 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.55% [4]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing shift towards new materials, with companies like Baihehua planning to invest in high-performance organic pigment production in Hangzhou, indicating a strategic focus on expanding production capabilities [3]. - The overall market for high-performance organic pigments is expected to grow as domestic companies enhance their production technologies and capacities in response to international competition [1].

晨会速递 2025 年 5 月 8 日 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】"双降"落地，如何交易？——《央行观察》系列第十二篇 本次一揽子金融政策力度较大，超预期细节较多。下一步市场交易政策预期的重心会 切换到增量财政政策的落地。随着 5 月份陆续公布 4 月份主要经济指标，或将给出更 多推演线索。具体到不同市场，A 股更可能进入偏强震荡走势，债券收益率曲线大概 率先陡峭化再平坦化。风险提示：再贷款政策落地不及预期，流动性投放不及时导致 资金面意外收紧。 【策略】稳中求进——2025 年 5 月五维行业比较观点 若 5 月份市场情绪下降，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为公用事业、银行、 建筑装饰、交通运输、食品饮料、煤炭；若市场情绪抬升，五维行业比较框架打分靠 前的行业分别为传媒、国防军工、计算机、电子、机械设备、汽车。行业表现预计会 在这两种情景间轮动，若海外扰动因素出现缓和，或产业端出现重大催化，市场或将 偏向第二种情景，反之市场将偏向第一种情景。 【策略】寻找确定性——2025 年 5 月策略观点 4 月 A 股市场先抑后扬，外部情绪风险扰动最严重的时候或许已经过去，内部政策与 中长期资金的确 ...

2025 年 5 月 7 日 总量研究 三类十项一揽子政策超预期 ——2025 年 5 月 7 日利率债观察 要点 1、三类十项一揽子政策超预期 在今日（注：2025 年 5 月 7 日）召开的新闻会上，潘功胜行长"一口气"公布 了包括降准、降息在内的三类十项一揽子货币政策措施，这大大地超出了市场的 预期。有些投资者猜到了今日会有政策出台，但大概率想不到政策能有十项之多， 且既有数量型的，又有价格型的，还有结构型的。有些投资者猜到了今日会有"结 构性降息"，但大概率想不到所有结构性货币政策工具利率都会下调 25bp，更 想不到更为关键的 OMO 利率（及与其联动的临时正、逆回购和 SLF 利率）也会 下调 10bp。 近期外部冲击影响加大，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固。在此 背景下，4 月 25 日召开的政治局会议要求"既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势 变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固经济发展和社会 稳定的基本面"。显然，今日一揽子政策措施的出台是货币当局对政治局会议精 神雷厉风行的落实。 "适时降准降息"对债市有何影响？——2025 年 4 月 25 日利率债观察 一揽子 ...

寻找确定性——2025年5月策略观点 分析师：张宇生 执业证书编号：S0930521030001 2025年5月6日 证券研究报告 4、风险提示 2 核心观点 1 核心问题一：指数韧性来自于内部确定性。4月A股市场先抑后扬，赚钱效应表现一般。短期来看，外部情绪风险扰动最严重的时 候或许已经过去，内部政策与中长期资金的确定性是指数保持韧性的主要驱动因素。 核心问题二：未来还会有哪些变化？外部变化可能会趋于复杂。关税政策下美国经济和通胀均压力增大，同时面临美元指数持续下 行、美债到期规模新高等问题，此外本轮特朗普政府恐怕难以通过2018年的减税手段来对冲关税对美国内部的冲击，因此关税问 题后续变化值得期待。不过，关税之外，美国对华或许还有其他"遏制"手段，参考2018年，或许以科技、制造业管制和投资限 制为主。不过国内仍有政策刺激空间，关注扩大内需、鼓励外贸、刺激投资与地产等方向。未来市场的主导因素将从风险偏好逐步 转向基本面。 核心问题三：有哪些确定性主线？1）内需消费，扩内需一直是近期国内政策的重点，未来有望持续迎来政策催化，此外，消费行 业业绩整体更具韧性，建议关注家居用品、食品加工、厨卫电器、小家电等行业 ...

Core HCM 稳健增长，关注 AI+人力商业化前景 ——北森控股（9669.HK）FY25 业绩前瞻 2025 年 5 月 7 日 公司研究 | 指标 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 751 | 855 | 943 | 1,043 | 1,150 | | 营业收入增长率 | 10.5% | 13.8% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.2% | | 经调整归母净利润（百万元） | -301 | -105 | -60 | 20 | 104 | | SPS（元） | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | | PS | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 资料来源：公司公告，光大证券研究所预测 注：股价时间为 2025-5-6，汇率为 1 港币=0.9290 人民币。注：北森控股财 年时间为上年 4 月 1 日至该年 3 月 31 日，FY2025 为 2024-4-1 至 2025-3- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) [6] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a net loss of 2.42 billion yuan in Q4 2024, compared to a profit of 1.05 billion yuan in the same period of 2023, indicating significant challenges in the last quarter of the year [1] - In Q1 2025, Yili's revenue increased by 1.35% year-on-year to 33.02 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.71% year-on-year to 4.87 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Profitability Summary - Liquid milk revenue for 2024 was 75.00 billion yuan, down 12.32% year-on-year, primarily due to weak terminal demand and inventory destocking [2] - The milk powder and dairy products segment saw revenue growth of 7.53% in 2024 and 18.65% in Q1 2025, with significant contributions from the premium infant formula segment [2] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 34.10%, with a notable increase in Q1 2025 to 37.82% due to lower raw milk prices [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 10.81 billion yuan and 11.65 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a 6.1% and 5.4% reduction from previous estimates [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.70 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 2.05 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [4]

事件：今世缘发布 2024 年年报与 2025 年一季报，公司 24 年实现总营收 115.46 亿元，同比增加 14.31%，归母净利润 34.12 亿元，同比增加 8.8%，其中 24Q4 总营收 16.04 亿元，同比减少 7.56%，归母净利润 3.26 亿元，同比减少 34.84%。 25Q1 总营收 50.99 亿元，同比增加 9.17%，归母净利润 16.44 亿元，同比增加 7.27%。公司拟每股派发现金红利 1.2 元（含税），合计派发现金红利 14.96 亿 元（含税）、对应分红率约 43.85%。 2025 年 5 月 7 日 公司研究 稳健收官，市占率继续提升 ——今世缘（603369.SH）2024 年年报与 25 年一季报点评 要点 24 年收入保持双位数以上增幅。1）分产品，24 年特 A+类/特 A 类/A 类/B 类产 品收入 74.9/33.5/4.2/1.4 亿元，同比+15.2%/+16.6%/+2.0%/-11.1%，特 A+类 和特 A 类产品收入保持较高增长，低端产品收入下滑。分量价，24 年白酒销量/ 均价同比+19.5%/-4.3%，均价下移或与公司加大折扣冲 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of 605 HKD, up from the current price of 487.8 HKD [4]. Core Insights - Tencent showcased 46 game products at the SPARK 2025 game launch event, highlighting its unique capabilities in investment, IP development, and overseas expansion [1]. - The report emphasizes Tencent's strong R&D and distribution capabilities, with a focus on long-standing games and new IP adaptations, which are expected to drive sustained growth in its gaming business [2]. - The company is projected to achieve Non-IFRS net profits of 254.72 billion RMB in 2025, with a slight upward revision in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Game Development and Investment - Tencent's investment in game development is evident through its partnerships, such as the investment in Ubisoft's subsidiary, which allows access to popular IPs like Assassin's Creed [1]. - The report notes that Tencent's overseas game sales reached 4.805 billion USD in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.9% [1]. Product Line and Market Position - The report highlights the successful performance of long-standing games like Honor of Kings and Peacekeeper Elite, which dominate the mobile game revenue rankings [2]. - Tencent's user engagement is significant, with its gaming users accounting for 66.5% of the industry usage time, indicating a strong competitive position [2]. Financial Projections - The projected revenue for Tencent is expected to grow from 609.02 billion RMB in 2023 to 860.10 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.7% [3][10]. - Non-IFRS net profit is forecasted to increase from 157.69 billion RMB in 2023 to 314.10 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [3][10].

奶油业务表现亮眼，费用率优化明显 ——立高食品（300973.SZ）2024 年年报与 25 年一季报点评 要点 2025 年 5 月 7 日 公司研究 事件：立高食品发布 2024 年年报与 2025 年一季报，公司 24 年实现总营收 38.35 亿元，同比增加 9.61%，实现归母净利润 2.68 亿元、同比增加 266.94%，其中 24Q4 单季总营收 11.18 亿元，同比增加 21.99%，归母净利润 0.65 亿元（23Q4 亏损 0.85 亿元）。25Q1 总营收 10.46 亿元、同比增加 14.13%，归母净利润 0.88 亿元，同比增加 15.11%。 24 年奶油业务维持高增，餐饮新零售继续扩张。1）分品类，24 年冷冻烘焙/奶 油/水果制品/酱料/其他烘焙原材料收入分别为 21.33/10.58/1.66/2.25/2.26 亿 元，同比-3.53%/+61.75%/-11.34%/-3.58%/+20.66%。冷冻烘焙业务收入占比 约 56%、营收同比略有下降，烘焙食品原料收入占比约 44%、收入同比增长约 33%，其中奶油业务营收增长亮眼，UHT 稀奶油系列发展势头延续（24 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1, with significant contributions from both the medical and consumer goods sectors [1][13] - The revenue for 2024 reached 8.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 700 million yuan, up 19.8% [5][6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing the net profit estimates by 17% and 18% respectively [13] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.61 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.5%, and a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 36.3% [6] - The medical consumables segment saw a revenue increase of 1.1% in 2024, while the consumer goods segment grew by 17.1% [7][9] - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 47.3%, with a notable decline in the medical consumables segment [11][19] Revenue Breakdown - The medical consumables accounted for 43.5% of total revenue in 2024, with a significant contribution from the acquisition of GRI [7] - The consumer goods segment, which includes health and personal care products, represented 55.6% of total revenue in 2024, with strong growth in online and offline sales channels [9][10] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 11.17 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 24.4%, and a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 46.6% [14] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 1.75 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 30 [14][20] Market Position - The company is expanding its market presence through both organic growth and acquisitions, with a focus on enhancing its overseas capabilities [13] - The consumer goods segment is leveraging a product strategy centered around popular items, contributing to robust sales growth [13]