证 券 研 究 报 告 新城控股（601155）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 商管利润占比渐提升，开发持续承压 目标价：17 元 事项： 2024 年公司实现营业收入 889.99 亿元，同比下降 25.32%，归母净利润 7.52 亿 元，同比上升 2.07%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 88,999 | 63,948 | 57,387 | 54,139 | | 同比增速(%) | -25.3% | -28.1% | -10.3% | -5.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 752 | 570 | 722 | 816 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.1% | -24.3% | 26.8% | 13.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.36 | | 市盈率(倍) | 39 | 52 | 41 | 36 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China National Freight (601598) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [1] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns by maintaining an annual cash dividend of 0.29 yuan per share [1] - The total operating revenue for 2024 is projected at 105.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - The report highlights a decline in profit margins, with a gross profit margin of 5.2%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The operating revenue for 2024 is 105.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The gross profit for 2024 is 5.54 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 5.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2024 is 1.09 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - The net profit margin for 2024 is 3.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - Freight forwarding segment revenue reached 67.2 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 2.25 billion yuan, down 2.2% [2] - The professional logistics segment generated 28 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, but the segment profit decreased by 31.8% [2] - E-commerce logistics revenue was 10.5 billion yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 160 million yuan [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts total operating revenue to reach 118.67 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase to 4.01 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 2.3% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.55 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 [4] Market Position and Valuation - The target price for the stock is set at 6.44 yuan, representing a potential upside of 23% from the current price of 5.23 yuan [4] - The report indicates a focus on shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 55.2% for 2024 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for China National Freight (601598) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [1] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns by maintaining an annual cash dividend of 0.29 yuan per share [1] - The total operating revenue for 2024 is projected at 105.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The operating revenue for 2024 is 105.6 billion, with a gross profit of 5.54 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 5.2%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 19.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33% [1] - The investment income for 2024 is 2.04 billion, down 12% year-on-year, while other income is 2.18 billion, down 11% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - Freight forwarding segment revenue reached 67.2 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 2.25 billion, down 2.2% [2] - The professional logistics segment generated 28 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, but the segment profit fell by 31.8% to 724 million [2] - The e-commerce segment reported revenue of 10.5 billion, down 14.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 160 million [3] Financial Projections - The projected total operating revenue for 2025 is 118.67 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 4.01 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 [4] Market Performance - The target price for the stock is set at 6.44 yuan, representing a 23% upside from the current price of 5.23 yuan [4]

行业研究 证券研究报 告 新疆周报（20250324-20250330） 推荐（维持） 东方希望准东煤电化一体化项目开工 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 31 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 联系人：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 486 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 42,562.87 | 4.31 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 37,635.09 | 4.79 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 0.9% | 12.7% | 11.1% | | 相对表现 | 0.3% | 7.0% | -0.1% | 本周新疆指数 100.7，环比-2.10%；新疆煤化工投资指数 100.59，环比- 1.44%；新疆国企改革指数 103.1，环比-2.03%。本周涨幅前三的公司：合金 投资（00063 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) with a target price range of HKD 547.75 to HKD 608.61 [1][5]. Core Insights - Tencent's 4Q24 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of CNY 172.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11%, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3%. The NON-IFRS net profit reached CNY 55.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year but down 8% quarter-over-quarter [1][8]. - The company is increasing its investment in AI infrastructure, anticipating significant advancements in application scenarios [1][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 4Q24, Tencent achieved revenue of CNY 1724 billion, YOY +11%, QOQ +3%, exceeding expectations by 2%. The NON-IFRS net profit was CNY 553 billion, YOY +30%, QOQ -8%, surpassing expectations by 4% [1][8]. - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to CNY 721.8 billion, with a YOY growth of 9%. The NON-IFRS net profit forecast is CNY 225.9 billion, reflecting a YOY increase of 16.4% [5][6]. Business Segments - **Gaming**: Revenue reached CNY 492 billion, YOY +20%, marking the highest growth rate since 2021. The international gaming segment contributed CNY 160 billion, YOY +15%, while the domestic market generated CNY 332 billion, YOY +23% [4][20]. - **Social Networks**: Revenue was CNY 298 billion, YOY +6%, driven by mobile game income and TME membership growth [27]. - **Marketing Services**: Revenue reached CNY 350 billion, YOY +17%, supported by the WeChat ecosystem [31]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Revenue was CNY 561 billion, YOY +3%, meeting expectations [33]. Capital Expenditure and AI Investment - Tencent's CAPEX for the quarter was CNY 39 billion, a significant increase of 418% YOY and 225% QOQ, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure [33][34]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities, with plans to integrate self-developed and open-source models into its applications [34]. Shareholder Returns - Tencent announced a cash dividend of CNY 41 billion, corresponding to a dividend rate of approximately 17%, and plans to repurchase over CNY 80 billion worth of shares [38].

证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报（20250324-20250328） 投资驱动业绩高增，假设审慎调整 ❑ 本周行情复盘：本周保险指数+0.65%，跑赢大盘 0.64pct。保险个股表现分化， 新华+3.03%，太保+1.29%，人寿+0.64%，平安+0.41%，人保-0.58%，友邦-1.49%， 财险-2.17%，太平-2.91%。10 年期国债收益率 1.81%，较上周末-3.3bps。 ❑ 本周动态： （1）上交所：3 月 28 日，上交所修订发布了《上海证券交易所首次公开发行 证券发行与承销业务实施细则》《上海证券交易所上市公司证券发行与承销业 务实施细则》2 项发行承销业务规则，其中指出，在参与新股申购、上市公司 定增方面，给予银行理财和保险资管与公募基金同等政策待遇。 （2）金融监管总局：印发《银行业保险业养老金融高质量发展实施方案》，支 持符合条件的商业银行、保险机构等参与提供企业年金、职业年金基金管理服 务。 （3）港交所：瑞众人寿于 3 月 20 日斥资约 3200 万港元买入中国神华 H 股， 持股比例从 4.97%上升至 5.00%，达到香港市场的举牌线。 （4）*ST 同州发布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Weichai Power, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][8]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's 4Q24 earnings exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 537 billion yuan, maintaining a stable performance compared to the previous quarter and showing a 9% increase year-on-year. The gross margin reached 24.2%, close to historical highs, attributed to product structure optimization and ongoing cost reductions [2][4][8]. - The company reported a total revenue of 215.7 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.4 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% increase year-on-year [2][4][8]. - The report projects optimistic growth for 2025, with expected net profits of 12.7 billion yuan, representing an 11.3% increase, and a target price of 21.8 yuan for A-shares and 23.4 HKD for H-shares [2][4][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is forecasted at 215.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.8% for 2025, 7.2% for 2026, and 3.7% for 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 11.4 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 12.7 billion yuan in 2025, 14.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 15.2 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 26.5%, 11.3%, 12.7%, and 5.9% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.31 yuan in 2024 to 1.74 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 12 in 2024 to 9 in 2027 [4]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - Weichai Power declared a total dividend of 6.27 billion yuan for the year, with a payout ratio of 55%, corresponding to a dividend yield of over 5% [8].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（0317-0323）：4 月供需格局或继续 改善 债券周报 2025 年 03 月 30 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 电话：010-66500886 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】财政收支压力仍大，土地市场低温 运行——信用周报 20250329》 2025-03-29 《【华创固收】经济韧性或将进入"验证期"—— 每周高频跟踪 20250329》 2025-03-29 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0312-0327）：MLF 多 重利率招标，信用债 ETF 纳入回购质押库》 2025-03-27 《【华创固收】转债估值回落的原因和结构变化 ——可转债周报 20250324》 | 一、 | 供给：净融资延续为正，期限结构压缩 | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | | 二、 | 需求：货基为二级市场配置主力，一级市场 ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250324-20250328） 本周指数普遍下跌 ❖ 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍下跌，其中沪深 300 上涨 0.01%，中证 500 下跌 0.94%，中证 1000 下跌 2.14%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 13.8%，相对于上周下跌了 1.09%。上证 500 的 隐含波动率为 17.61%，相对于上周下跌了 0.95%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率为 21.93%，相对于上周下跌了 0.47%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 13.99%，相对 于上周下跌了 0.47%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 3 月 17 日到 2025 年 3 月 21 日正 面信号共出现了 2104 次，未来高点平均胜率为 25.32%，负面信号出现 4436 次，未来低点平均胜率为 78.94%。 从宽基择时策略来看，上证 50 出现看多信号，其余宽基信号为中性。 从行业形态择时策略来看，消费者服务、银行出现看多信号，其余行业信号为 中性。 出现连续看多信号股票、特殊看多信号股票和券商金股出现看多信号股票见正 ...

【市场观点】 【本周思考】 ❑ 海内外模型侧密集上新，Manus 公布美区商业化方案，关注 AI 动漫和 Agent 方向。本周 A 股市场 TMT 方向交投情绪较弱，但产业侧有较多变化，一方面 海内外大模型厂商密集上新：Deepseek 迭代 V3 小版本 0324；谷歌发布 Gemini 2.5 pro，并在多个测试上稳居第一；OpenAI 上线 GPT-4o 文生图功能，动漫风 格图片生成效果较好。基于 GPT-4o 的文生图功能，搭配图生视频工具所制作 的吉卜力动画风格指环王预告片出圈，形成 AI 视频（尤其是 AI 动画）方向催 化。此外，应用侧 AI agent 产品 Manus 公布其美区商业化计划，分为 39 美元 /月和 200 美元/月的两个订阅制方案。展望后续，我们认为目前多模态大模型 仍在持续迭代过程中，看好 AI 视频领域相关进展；且相较于真人视频，动画 以二次元形象为主，更适合 AI 生成，建议关注动画相关产业链：1）动画/影 视投制公司：上海电影、中文在线、光线传媒、百纳千成、果麦文化等；2） 动画 IP 方及出版产业链：奥飞娱乐、荣信文化等。此外，看好 AI Agent 方向 ...