Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [1]. Core Insights - The automotive market is expected to continue strong sales in the second half of the year, supported by a reduction in inventory and a decrease in price war risks. However, there are concerns regarding sales fluctuations due to potential electric vehicle subsidies next year, which may suppress market sentiment [1]. - The report suggests actively observing opportunities in the sector after market sentiment stabilizes, particularly in the context of the recent strong performance of Hong Kong stocks [1]. Data Tracking - In June, new energy vehicle deliveries showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 382,585 units (up 12% year-on-year), while Li Auto and Xpeng saw deliveries of 36,279 units (down 24.1% year-on-year) and 34,611 units (up 224.4% year-on-year), respectively [4][21]. - Traditional automakers also reported strong sales, with Geely's sales reaching 236,000 units (up 42.1% year-on-year) and SAIC Motor leading with 365,000 units (up 21.6% year-on-year) [4][23]. Industry Recommendations - For complete vehicles, the report recommends Jianghuai Automobile, highlighting potential for growth in both volume and profitability in the second half of the year. It also suggests monitoring new models from Li Auto and Baic Blue Valley, as well as the accelerated delivery of Xiaomi's YU7 [6]. - In the parts sector, the report advises a selective approach to stock picking, focusing on companies with lower valuations (below 15 times) and expected growth rates above 15% for the next year. Recommended stocks include Xingyu Co. and Aikodi [6]. - The heavy truck segment is expected to maintain strong growth, with policy support driving demand. Recommendations include Heavy Truck A and Weichai H/A [6]. Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 0.56% this week, ranking 29th out of 29 sectors. In contrast, the overall market indices showed positive growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.09% and the ChiNext Index up 2.36% [9][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for resource stocks, emphasizing the continued performance of the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Views - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on copper imports, which have led to a decrease in domestic copper prices by 1.63% [5]. - It notes a decline in aluminum ingot inventory and an increase in aluminum rod inventory, indicating mixed trends in the aluminum market [5]. - The report emphasizes the strong earnings growth forecasts for several companies in the sector, driven by production increases and favorable raw material prices [5][7][8]. Industry Overview - **Basic Industry Data**: The non-ferrous metals sector comprises 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 31,100.02 billion and a circulating market value of 27,077.84 billion [2]. - **Performance Metrics**: The sector has shown a 6.0% absolute performance over the past month and 18.7% over the past year, indicating a positive trend [3]. - **Copper Market**: The report discusses the implications of a 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the U.S., which has led to a significant market reaction and price adjustments [5]. - **Aluminum Market**: The report notes a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory and an increase in aluminum rod inventory, suggesting a complex market dynamic influenced by both supply and demand factors [5]. Company Insights - **Yun Aluminum Co.**: The company forecasts a 7.19% to 11.16% increase in net profit for H1 2025, attributed to full production capacity and favorable raw material prices [5]. - **Zhongfu Industrial**: Expected net profit growth of 53.35% to 62.37% for H1 2025, driven by cost reductions and increased sales prices [5]. - **Jincheng Mining**: Anticipates a net profit increase of 74.62% to 82.78% for H1 2025, supported by higher sales volumes and effective cost control measures [5]. - **Hunan Gold**: Projects a 40% to 60% increase in net profit for H1 2025, primarily due to rising sales prices of gold and antimony products [7]. - **Huayou Cobalt**: Forecasts a net profit increase of 55.62% to 67.59% for H1 2025, benefiting from integrated operations and rising cobalt prices [8]. - **North Rare Earth**: Expects a staggering net profit increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% for H1 2025, driven by significant growth in production and sales of rare earth products [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the steel industry, suggesting to focus on the bottom repair opportunities in steel stocks [1]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand during the off-season, but improved market sentiment has led to an increase in steel prices [2][3]. - The overall profitability of the steel industry has improved in the first half of the year due to a significant decline in raw material prices, which has positively impacted steel production costs [3][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy proposed by the Central Financial Committee is expected to enhance market conditions for the steel industry, leading to both valuation and performance recovery in the long term [4][10]. Industry Data Summary Production Data - As of July 11, the production of five major steel products totaled 8.7272 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 124,000 tons [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3981 million tons, down 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products was 8.7307 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 121,900 tons [1][2]. - The consumption changes for specific products included a decrease of 33,700 tons for rebar, 29,100 tons for wire rod, and 18,600 tons for hot-rolled products [1]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory was reported at 13.3958 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 3,500 tons [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 21,200 tons to 9.1401 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [1]. Profitability Data - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills was stable at 2,256 yuan per ton [1]. - As of July 11, the gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar was 196 yuan, hot-rolled sheets 142 yuan, and cold-rolled sheets 31 yuan, with week-on-week increases of 9 yuan, 16 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively [1][3].

证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业周报（20250707-20250711） Grok 4 发布：xAI 引领 Agent 加速落地 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 07 月 13 日 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 8.2% | 4.0% | 51.4% | | 相对表现 | 6.1% | 5.5% | 37.8% | 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周志浩 邮箱：zhouzhihao1@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 338 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 45,343.43 | 4.40 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 39,023.53 | 4.82 | 相对指数表现 -9% 21% 52% 82% 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/07 2024-07-15~2025-07-11 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, which serves as a market fear index. It reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility[7]. - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance process - \( \mu \): Drift rate of the asset price - \( \kappa \): Rate of mean reversion of variance - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of volatility - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Two Wiener processes with correlation \( \rho \)[7]. - **Model Evaluation**: The Heston model is widely used in financial markets for its ability to capture the stochastic nature of volatility, making it a robust tool for implied volatility estimation[7]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Multi-Industry Timing Factor (Scissor Difference) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is based on the difference between the number of stocks with bullish and bearish signals within an industry. It is used to construct an industry timing strategy[15]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Define the number of stocks with bullish signals as \( N_{bullish} \) and bearish signals as \( N_{bearish} \). - Compute the scissor difference as: $ \text{Scissor Difference} = N_{bullish} - N_{bearish} $ - Normalize the scissor difference by the total number of stocks in the industry to obtain the scissor difference ratio: $ \text{Scissor Difference Ratio} = \frac{N_{bullish} - N_{bearish}}{N_{total}} $ - Use this ratio to construct an industry timing strategy[15]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The backtesting results show that the timing model outperforms the respective industry indices in all cases, demonstrating excellent historical performance[15]. --- Backtesting Results of Models and Factors 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 14.41% (+2.91% WoW)[9] - SSE 500: 15.4% (+0.83% WoW)[9] - CSI 1000: 18.09% (+1.24% WoW)[9] - CSI 300: 14.48% (+3.15% WoW)[9] 2. Multi-Industry Timing Factor - **Performance Metrics**: - The timing model outperformed the respective industry indices in all cases, with a 100% success rate in backtesting[15]. - Specific industries with bullish signals include retail, light manufacturing, home appliances, and others[18].

- The report mentions multiple quantitative models, including the "Volume Model," "Low Volatility Model," "Feature Institutional Model," "Feature Volume Model," "Smart CSI 300 Model," "Smart CSI 500 Model," "Limit-Up/Down Model," "Calendar Effect Model," "Long-Term Momentum Model," "Comprehensive Weaponry V3 Model," and "Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model"[2][12][13][15] - The "Volume Model" is short-term and indicates a bullish signal for most broad-based indices[12] - The "Low Volatility Model" is short-term and provides a neutral signal[12] - The "Feature Institutional Model" is short-term and indicates a bearish signal[12] - The "Feature Volume Model" is short-term and indicates a bullish signal[12] - The "Smart CSI 300 Model" and "Smart CSI 500 Model" are short-term and indicate bullish signals[12] - The "Limit-Up/Down Model" is a mid-term model and provides a neutral signal[13] - The "Calendar Effect Model" is a mid-term model and provides a neutral signal[13] - The "Long-Term Momentum Model" is a long-term model and provides a neutral signal for all broad-based indices[14] - The "Comprehensive Weaponry V3 Model" and "Comprehensive CSI 2000 Model" are composite models that indicate bullish signals[15] - The "Turnover-to-Volatility Model" is a mid-term model for the Hong Kong market and indicates a bullish signal[16] - Backtesting results for the "Double Bottom Pattern" show a weekly return of 2.52%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.43%[43] - Backtesting results for the "Cup-and-Handle Pattern" show a weekly return of 2.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.91%[43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Broadcom's management has indicated a significant surge in AI inference demand, which is expected to drive a systematic reassessment of profit structures and industry capacity [13][15]. - The AI inference demand has exceeded current capacity, suggesting potential upward revisions in profitability forecasts for Broadcom, with a projected market space of $60-90 billion for three major AI clients by 2027 [13][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high bandwidth and low latency networks for AI inference workloads, with a current spending ratio of approximately 3:1 between computing and networking devices in AI systems [14]. Market Performance - The communication sector (Shenwan) rose by 2.13% in the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.31 percentage points and underperforming the ChiNext index by 0.23 percentage points [6][7]. - Year-to-date, the communication sector has increased by 9.54%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 7.51 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 6.48 percentage points [6][7]. Stock Performance - The top five gainers in the communication sector for the week were: SanChuan Wisdom (+27.91%), GuoYuan Technology (+27.72%), BoChuang Technology (+19.84%), ShiJia Photon (+14.85%), and ZhongXin SaiKe (+12.46%) [10][12]. - The top five losers were: YouFang Technology (-18.52%), RuiSiKangDa (-13.48%), XuanJi Information (-7.31%), HeZhong ShiZhuang (-5.09%), and RunZe Technology (-4.10%) [10][12]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on major operators such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [21]. - For optical modules and devices, the report recommends companies like XinYiSheng, TianFu Communication, and ZhongJi XuChuang, while suggesting to pay attention to YuanJie Technology and ShiJia Photon [21]. - In the military/satellite communication sector, recommended companies include HaiGe Communication, Shanghai HanXun, and QiYiEr [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various policies and regulatory measures across multiple sectors, including macro - economic, fiscal, monetary, financial regulatory, real estate, and tariff policies. It details the government's efforts in promoting economic development, stabilizing the market, and enhancing regulatory efficiency. For example, the government is promoting "anti -内卷" governance, advancing "two - heavy" construction projects, adjusting fiscal and monetary policies, and making targeted adjustments in the real estate and financial sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro -基调 - Central government deploys "anti -内卷" governance in multiple industries, with various departments taking actions. A total of 4218 policies hindering unified market and fair competition have been cleared [8][9][13] - 8000 billion yuan of "two - heavy" construction project lists have been fully released, covering both "hard investment" in key fields and "soft construction" reform measures [9] - The government increases support for employment stability and raises the basic pension for retirees. The unemployment insurance stabilization and job - expansion return ratio for small, medium, and large enterprises is adjusted, and the pension for retirees is increased by 2% [10] - The "Child - Rearing Subsidy System Implementation Plan" is announced, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year [11] 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal incremental reserve policies are expected to be introduced in a timely manner, aiming to promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation. Possible measures include issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and establishing new policy - based financial instruments [14] - The Ministry of Finance adjusts the issuance rhythm of treasury bonds in the third quarter. Some varieties' issuance time is advanced, and the scale of some ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is adjusted [15] - The scope of special bonds' investment expands, from traditional infrastructure to public services, industrial upgrading, and debt resolution. Three departments allow local special bonds to be used for zero - carbon park construction [16] 3.3 Monetary Policy - The "moderately loose" monetary policy remains unchanged. Despite the stable economic performance in the first half of the year, the central bank will continue its supportive stance due to external challenges, insufficient domestic demand, and the real - estate market adjustment [19] - In June, the central bank did not conduct treasury bond trading but actively injected liquidity through multiple tools at the end of the quarter, with a total injection of 6560 billion yuan [19] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issues a new batch of QDII quotas worth 3080 million US dollars, and the scope of domestic investors in the Bond Connect "South - bound Link" is expanded to non - banking institutions [20] 3.4 Financial Supervision - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs are approved and fully subscribed in one day, with a total scale of 30 billion yuan [23] - The "pension loan" product is suspended, and China Merchants Bank is approved to establish a financial asset investment company with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan [24] - Bank wealth management valuation rectification faces a "mid - year assessment", and investors will face net - value fluctuations after the rectification [25] - The long - term assessment mechanism for state - owned commercial insurance companies is improved, with a new 5 - year cycle indicator added to the "net asset return rate" assessment [27] 3.5 Real Estate Policy - Local governments are encouraged to use real - estate regulation policy autonomy to promote the real - estate market's recovery and increase investment in new urbanization using "two - heavy" and "two - new" funds [29] - Guangzhou plans to support "commercial - to - public housing loan conversion" to relieve residents' repayment pressure. When the housing provident fund loan - to - deposit ratio is below 75%, the conversion can be initiated [30] - Jingmen, Hubei promotes the spot - housing sales policy. Newly - transferred high - quality real - estate development land will be preferentially developed using the spot - housing sales model starting from January 1, 2026 [31] 3.6 Tariff Policy - The US lifts the export license requirements for three major global chip - design software suppliers to China [34] - China and the US are accelerating the implementation of the London framework results, and US and Chinese officials are expected to meet in August to discuss trade issues [34] - The US "reciprocal tariff" is postponed to August 1. The US plans to impose tariffs on multiple countries, with rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Starting from August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on all imported copper [35][36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [48]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the low-altitude economy, particularly in the eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) sector, driven by favorable government policies and increasing market interest [4][10]. - JOBY has reached a market capitalization milestone of $10 billion, reflecting a 50% increase in value over the past month, showcasing strong investor confidence in the eVTOL market [5][19]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, noting that Chinese companies are positioned to lead in the eVTOL sector globally, with both the U.S. and China recognizing the strategic importance of the low-altitude economy [18][19]. Industry Overview - The report provides key industry data, including a total market capitalization of approximately 33,326.88 billion RMB and a circulating market capitalization of about 28,543.14 billion RMB [3]. - The performance of the transportation sector has shown a 13.2% increase over the past 12 months, with a 6.5% increase over the last six months [3]. Company Analysis - The report discusses the business model of the company, which operates in high-end manufacturing and high-end consumer goods, focusing on the private aircraft sector. The company has increased prices significantly, with the SR2X series and Vision Jet prices rising by 26% and 24% respectively from 2021 to 2024 [2][20]. - Comparatively, the report notes that the company’s valuation is lower than its international peers, with expected net profits of 11.5 billion, 13.3 billion, and 15.4 billion RMB for 2025-2027, respectively [2][20]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index has increased by 8% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which has risen by 2% [22][24]. - Notable stock performances include a 14% increase in the stock price of the company, with a year-to-date increase of 140% as of July 11 [19][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key segments within the low-altitude economy, including manufacturers, supply chains, new infrastructure, and operational applications [30][32]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Wan Feng Ao Wei, Xi Rui, and Yong Li, which are expected to benefit from the growth in the low-altitude economy [33][34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The bond market fluctuated weakly this week due to multiple negative disturbances such as regulatory guidance on rural commercial bank bond investment and the supply of real estate and ultra - long - term bonds. The adjustment range of credit bonds was smaller than that of interest - rate bonds, and the spreads were mostly passively narrowed. Institutions may continue to explore high - coupon individual bonds after the stock - bond seesaw effect, which helps to further narrow the credit spreads. It is advisable to allocate high - coupon varieties on rallies, and pay attention to the right - hand opportunities for long - term credit bonds after the market stabilizes [2][5]. - For institutions with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds. For institutions with strong liability - side stability, take advantage of stable liabilities to extend the duration and actively allocate long - term varieties [2][14]. - When considering taking profits on long - term credit bonds, pay attention to three time points: when funds continue to net buy but credit spreads do not further compress significantly; when the net buying power of funds weakens or turns to small net selling; and using 10 - 15BP above the lowest spread last year as a reference line [5][13]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog I. Bond Market Review and Credit Strategy Outlook - This week, the equity market sentiment was strong, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. The bond market fluctuated weakly. Most credit bond yields rose, and spreads were mostly passively narrowed. The 3y - and - below short - end spreads of most varieties were compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term varieties still had some room [5][9][12]. - Looking forward, with the current fundamental pattern unchanged significantly and the second - quarter economic data being relatively strong, the risk of a trend reversal in the bond market is controllable. Institutions may continue to explore high - coupon bonds, and if the adjustment continues next week, it may bring better layout opportunities [5][13]. II. Key Policies and Hot Events - Shenzhen Longfor Holdings Co., Ltd. announced adjustments to the principal and interest repayment arrangements of 21 bonds, indicating that the debt restructuring of real - estate enterprises is accelerating and risk clearing is speeding up [2][16]. - Gansu Province established a 10 - billion - yuan provincial emergency working capital pool, with 2 billion yuan from provincial finance and 8 billion yuan from bank supporting financing, to support key enterprises in repaying due debts and effectively alleviate debt risks [2][3][16]. - The central bank and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced three opening - up optimization measures at the "Bond Connect Anniversary Forum 2025", which may bring new investment opportunities for Chinese overseas bonds traded in the Hong Kong market [2][3][17]. - Ten science - innovation bond ETFs completed their issuance, raising a total of 28.988 billion yuan, with subscriptions being extremely popular. Attention should be paid to the subsequent scale expansion [3][17]. III. Secondary Market - Credit bond yields generally rose this week, and spreads were mostly passively narrowed. In terms of different varieties: - For urban investment bonds, yields generally rose, and spreads mostly narrowed. Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of high - coupon urban investment bonds within 3y and extend the duration of medium - and high - grade varieties [20]. - For real - estate bonds, low - grade varieties were relatively weak. Currently, real - estate bond yields are still attractive, and attention can be paid to 1 - 2y central and state - owned enterprise real - estate AA and above varieties [21]. - For cyclical bonds, coal and steel bond yields mostly rose, and spreads mostly narrowed. For coal bonds, appropriate credit - risk exposure can be taken for short - end varieties, and the duration of medium - and high - grade varieties can be extended to 3y. For steel bonds, consider short - duration AA + implicit - rated varieties [21]. - For financial bonds, bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds generally underperformed, with yields rising and spreads mostly narrowing. Brokerage sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds also had yield increases and spread narrowing [22]. IV. Primary Market - This week, the credit bond issuance scale was 287.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 66.8 billion yuan, and the net financing was 88.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 47.8 billion yuan. The urban investment bond issuance scale was 102.3 billion yuan, an increase of 39.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 26 billion yuan, an increase of 174 billion yuan [6]. V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity of credit bonds in the inter - bank market decreased, while that in the exchange market increased [6]. VI. Rating Adjustments - This week, 1 entity's rating was downgraded, and 6 entities' ratings were upgraded [6].