Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The capital rate in July continued to decline, and the capital market was relatively friendly. It is expected that the capital rate in August will likely maintain a stable and slightly loose pattern [2][6] Group 3: Summary of July Review - Most term capital rates declined in July. The operating centers of DR007 and DR014 decreased by 6bp and 8bp respectively, and those of R001, R007, and R014 decreased by 4bp, 10bp, and 12bp respectively. The deviation of DR007 from the policy rate also narrowed [2][12] - The number of days when DR007 dropped below "policy rate + 10bp" increased significantly in July, rising from 5% in previous months to 45% [2][13] - The central bank continued to support the capital market in July. The total capital injection through reverse repurchase, MLF, and outright reverse repurchase was 48.8 billion, with the net injection scale being the second - highest in the same period since 2018. The capital injection during the tax period was the highest in the same period since 2018, and a large - scale reverse repurchase was carried out after the unexpected tightening of capital rates on July 24 [2][14] - The rapid decline in the bill rediscount rate may indicate poor credit demand in July. Banks may use bill financing to increase credit scale, which reduces the consumption of excess reserves and benefits the capital market [3][19] - The yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit fluctuated. The R007 - DR007 spread reached a new low in the same period since 2019 [21] Group 4: Summary of August Outlook - The market's expectation for further loosening of the capital market in the future is not strong, but the capital rate in August may still maintain a stable and slightly loose pattern [4][6] - Whether the capital market will experience "secondary tightening" is crucial for the bond market. The current bond market adjustment is mainly driven by price increase expectations. If the capital follows and tightens, it will form an additional negative factor [4][32] - Historically, commodity price increases do not necessarily lead to synchronous increases in capital prices. There were cases in 2017, 2018, and 2021 where the building materials composite index rose while the capital rate remained flat or declined [4][33] - The current social financing and exchange rate situations are different from those in the first quarter. Social financing is likely to decline in the second half of the year, and the exchange rate pressure has significantly eased [5][39] - The PMI indicates that the current fundamentals are weaker than those in the first quarter. Since 2024, the capital rate has been more sensitive to fundamental changes. The recent decline in high - frequency fundamental signals suggests that there is no upward risk for the capital rate [5][43] - The net financing pressure of government bonds in August will increase slightly compared to July, but the overall liquidity gap will narrow. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs of maturing monetary tools, the estimated excess reserve ratio in August will decline [44][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 FY2026 revenue of $575 million, a year-over-year increase of 38.8%, slightly below Bloomberg consensus estimates of $579 million. Non-GAAP operating profit was $25 million, exceeding expectations of $12 million, while Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $42 million, surpassing the forecast of $31 million [2]. - The tutoring and online school segments are driving stable growth in learning service revenue, with a healthy class renewal rate of approximately 80%. However, growth is expected to gradually slow due to market saturation and a balanced supply-demand dynamic in the tutoring sector [3]. - The learning machine business is still in the investment phase, with sales growth reported at 70% year-over-year, totaling approximately 190,000 units sold. Despite a decrease in average selling price due to new product launches, the company is expanding its market penetration [3]. - The company achieved a significant improvement in profitability, with an operating profit margin of 2.5%, up 6.7 percentage points year-over-year. Gross margin was reported at 54.9%, reflecting operational efficiency and changes in business structure [4]. - The company has been aggressive in share buybacks, repurchasing $477 million worth of shares, which is about 12% of total trading volume during the period. A new buyback plan was approved for up to $600 million over the next 12 months [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - Q1 FY2026 revenue was $575 million, up 38.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations. Non-GAAP operating profit was $25 million, and Non-GAAP net profit was $42 million, both exceeding forecasts [2]. Operational Analysis - The tutoring business is experiencing stable growth, with a class renewal rate of around 80%. The online school segment saw over 100% year-over-year growth in monthly active users [3]. - The learning machine segment reported a 70% increase in sales, with total sales revenue of approximately $8 million, despite a decrease in average selling price [3]. Profitability and Buyback - The company reported an operating profit margin of 2.5%, with a gross margin of 54.9%. The company has been active in share buybacks, repurchasing $477 million worth of shares [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 to FY2028 is $214 million, $330 million, and $462 million, respectively, with adjusted PE ratios of 31, 20, and 15 times [5].

Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, following a contraction of 0.5% in the previous quarter, exceeding the expected 2.6%[7] - However, the overall economic growth rate is projected to decline to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, significantly lower than the second half of 2024[7] - The domestic private final purchases (PDFP) growth has weakened, with Q1 revised down to 1.9% and Q2 at only 1.2%, indicating a decline in internal economic momentum[13] Federal Reserve Policy - Jerome Powell is characterized as a hawkish figure, prioritizing inflation risks over full employment, advocating for tighter monetary policy to suppress inflation[3] - The recent FOMC meeting saw two dissenting votes, marking a notable increase in opposition during Powell's tenure, reflecting the end of a "great moderation" era[5] - The removal of the phrase "uncertainty further reduced" from the Fed's statements suggests ongoing concerns about policy uncertainty, particularly related to Trump's administration[6] Risks and Challenges - Increased uncertainty in the Middle East could significantly raise oil prices, leading to higher inflation in the U.S. and complicating the Fed's rate-cutting decisions[4] - Trump's domestic policies may face greater resistance, potentially leading to increased fiscal stimulus and unexpected easing from the Fed[4] - Heightened volatility in U.S. financial markets could accelerate capital outflows and a decline in the dollar, risking a deeper recession[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 revenue of 12.359 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 47.1%, with self-operated store revenue up 45.6% and franchise revenue up 55.0% [2]. - GAAP net profit for Q2 was 1.251 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 43.6%, with a profit margin of 10.1% [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 1.399 billion RMB, up 44.0% year-over-year, with a profit margin of 11.3% [2]. - The company experienced strong operational metrics, benefiting from delivery platform subsidies, with same-store sales up 13.4% and monthly active users reaching 91.7 million, a year-over-year increase of 31.6% [3]. - The company accelerated its store openings, adding 2,109 new stores in Q2, bringing the total to 26,206 stores [3]. - The overall gross margin improved by 2.86 percentage points year-over-year, although fulfillment costs increased, impacting operating profit margin [4]. - The actual tax rate for Q2 was 29.76%, with a GAAP operating profit margin of 13.8%, reflecting healthy business performance [4]. - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 has been adjusted to 4.401 billion RMB, 5.516 billion RMB, and 6.999 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding adjusted PE ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [5].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" with an expected price increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.4%, with the education segment revenue reaching $1.089 billion, up 18.7%, exceeding guidance [2]. - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, estimating a total return of no less than $186 million for FY2025 [4]. - The education business is expected to experience a slowdown in revenue growth due to economic conditions and increased competition, with Q1 FY2026 international exam preparation and study abroad consulting revenues projected to decline by 5% year-over-year [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - FY2025 Q4 revenue was $1.243 billion, with a 9.4% year-over-year increase. The education business revenue was $1.089 billion, up 18.7%, surpassing guidance. Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 6.5%, a 4.1 percentage point increase year-over-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The education business revenue growth is expected to slow in FY2026 due to economic and international factors. Q1 FY2026 international business is projected to decline by 5%, while K9 business is expected to grow by 15-16% [3]. - Profit pressure is anticipated from the slowdown in education revenue, but cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to positively impact profit margins by 1-1.5 percentage points [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of $5.276 billion, $5.719 billion, and $6.228 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 8% [5]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are $560 million, $598 million, and $641 million for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with adjusted PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [5].

Economic Policy and Planning - The Politburo meeting announced the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee will be held in October, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its alignment with the 2035 modernization goals[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to set economic targets, particularly whether GDP quantitative goals will be restored, and to outline major engineering projects with significant investment scales[2][5] - The meeting emphasized a more positive internal economic outlook, shifting from "using policy tools effectively" to "implementing and optimizing" policies[5][7] Risk Management and Market Adjustments - The meeting highlighted the need to prevent the emergence of hidden debts and to effectively clear local financing platforms, aligning with the central government's focus on debt management as a core aspect of performance evaluation[5][7] - Adjustments were made to the "anti-involution" policy, clarifying that it does not equate to price hikes but rather focuses on orderly capacity governance in key industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles[3][8] - There is a risk of inadequate policy implementation leading to "运动式去产能" (campaign-style capacity reduction), which could create further issues in the economy[4][10] Future Economic Outlook - The economic growth targets for 2023-2025 are set at around 5%, reflecting a cautious approach amid global uncertainties[5][6] - The meeting did not mention new policy financial tools or direct risk prevention measures related to real estate, indicating a shift in focus towards high-quality urban renewal and new consumption growth points[5][6][7] - The potential for economic weakness in the third and fourth quarters is acknowledged, particularly as export demand may decline[10]

2025 年 07 月 31 日 宁德时代（300750.SZ） 买入（维持评级） 公司点评 证券研究报告 业绩好于预期，量利保持稳健 业绩简评 7 月 30 日，公司发布 1H25 财报，①H1：实现收入 1789 亿元，同 +7%；实现归母 305 亿元，同+33%；实现扣非 272 亿元，同+36%。 ②Q2：实现收入 942 亿元，同/环+8%/11%；实现归母 165 亿元， 同/环+34%/18%；实现扣非 154 亿元，同/环+42%/30%。毛利率、 扣非净利率分别 26%、19%，净利率同/环+4/2pct。业绩超预期！ 经营分析 1H25 具体业绩拆分： n 量：公司 H1/Q2 出货 275/150GWh，Q2 同/环+36%/20%。预计 动/储分别 80%/20%，国内/海外各 50%。欧洲、中东需求超预期， 美国 H1 抢装透支有限。 n 价：拆分 Q2 均价 0.56 元/Wh，H1 动力/储能分别 0.60/0.52 元/Wh，同/环-17%/9%，储能降幅扩大，主要系原材料降本、行业 竞争等。 n 利：拆分 H1/Q2 净利为 0.08 元/Wh，同/环-14%/持平，主要 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In Q2 2025, the Hong Kong stock market showed a V-shaped trend of sharp decline followed by recovery. The returns of various types of Hong Kong stock funds were positive, and the scale and share of Hong Kong stock funds increased. The stock positions and Hong Kong stock positions of Hong Kong stock funds increased slightly. In terms of heavy - position sectors, there were increases in medicine, finance, and technology, and a decrease in consumption. Among heavy - position stocks, pharmaceutical stocks showed obvious increases, while some Internet platform leaders declined. The scale of some fund companies increased significantly [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Hong Kong Stock Fund Performance and Scale Development - **Performance**: In Q2 2025, among the main indices tracked by Hong Kong stock funds, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 4.42% and 1.9% respectively, outperforming the CSI 300. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by - 1.70%. The leading indices in terms of gains were the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index (25.6%) and the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Non - Banking Financial Index (21.8%). The average returns of various types of Hong Kong stock funds were positive, with "Hong Kong QDII - Active" leading with an average increase of 10.22% [3]. - **Scale and Share**: As of the end of Q2, the total scale of Hong Kong stock funds was 619.134 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.54 pct; the total share was 623.83 billion shares, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.45 pct. In Q2, the number of newly issued funds was 28, an increase from the previous quarter, but the newly issued scale was 7.517 billion yuan, lower than the previous quarter [3]. 3.2 Hong Kong Stock Fund Positioning Characteristics - **Stock and Hong Kong Stock Positions**: In Q2, the average stock position was 92%, a slight increase from the previous quarter. The stock position of index funds was higher than that of actively managed funds. The average Hong Kong stock position was 85%, an increase from the previous quarter, and the gap between index funds and actively managed funds narrowed in Q2 [3]. - **Heavy - Position Sector Allocation**: Technology (39%) and consumption (25%) ranked first and second in terms of proportion. The sectors with more increases were medicine (+2.27 pct), finance (+2.25 pct), and technology (+1.67 pct), while consumption (-5.97 pct) was significantly reduced [3]. - **Heavy - Position Stock Industry Distribution**: Media ranked first for four consecutive quarters, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 0.66 pct in Q2; Commerce and Retail ranked second for four consecutive quarters, with a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 3.5 pct; Electronics became the third for two consecutive quarters, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 0.88 pct. The sector with the highest quarter - on - quarter increase was Medicine and Biology, accounting for 12.42% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 2.27 pct [3]. - **Individual Stock Level**: The "herding effect" of funds on leading stocks decreased. In terms of the number of funds holding heavy - position stocks, Xiaomi rose one place to become the third, and Sino Biopharmaceutical and Pop Mart entered the top 10 for the first time in four quarters. The concentration of heavy - position stocks decreased, and the proportion of large - cap stocks with a market value of over 80 billion yuan rose to 90% [3]. 3.3 Hong Kong Stock Fund Company Analysis - **Scale Ranking**: In Q2, the top 5 fund companies in terms of scale were Huaxia, E Fund, Fullgoal, GF, and ICBC Credit Suisse, and their total scales increased to varying degrees compared with the previous quarter. Huaxia's Hong Kong stock product scale exceeded 10 billion yuan, and ICBC Credit Suisse's scale increased by 35.45 pct quarter - on - quarter. Among the top 20, the most obvious expansion was by Huatai - PineBridge, with a quarter - on - quarter increase of 91.13 pct, rising four places to the seventh [3]. 3.4 Performance - Oriented Hong Kong Stock Fund Positioning Display and Quarterly Report Views - **Positioning Display**: Some actively managed Hong Kong stock funds in Q2 2025 held stocks that were among the top 50 in terms of gains, such as Rongchang Biologics, Sino Biopharmaceutical, and Innovent Biologics [54]. - **Quarterly Report Views**: Fund managers generally expressed optimism about the development prospects of sectors such as innovative drugs, new consumption, and technology Internet, and adjusted their investment strategies according to market conditions [57][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows mixed trends with production indicators like power plant consumption and blast furnace operation rates having their own characteristics, while demand - side indicators such as new home sales and cement prices face challenges. Inflation presents a situation where CPI is affected by weakening pig prices and PPI is influenced by rising oil prices [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Cement Prices Near Previous Lows 3.1.1 Production: Power Plant Consumption Oscillates at a High Level - Power plant consumption is in a high - level oscillation. On July 29, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 88.21 tons, a 0.01% decrease from July 22. On July 22, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 218 tons, a 4.0% decrease from July 15. After rainfall, with the approaching of mid - dog days, power coal consumption is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and the daily consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces is predicted to stay between 210 - 240 tons [6][17]. - Blast furnace operation rates remain at a high level. On July 25, the national blast furnace operation rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 18, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 18. The operation rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills was 92.0% on July 25, also unchanged from July 18. At current price levels, steel mills' profits are relatively good, so they are reluctant to reduce production even in the off - season [21]. - Tire operation rates are weakly stable. On July 24, the operation rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17, and the operation rate of semi - steel car tires was 75.9%, also a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from July 17. The operation rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region declined moderately. On July 24, the operation rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 92.1%, an 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from July 17, and the operation rate of downstream weaving machines was 55.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from July 17 [6][24]. 3.1.2 Demand: Cement Prices Near Previous Lows - New home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From July 1 - 29, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 20.1 million square meters, a 31.4% decrease from June, an 18.8% decrease from July last year, a 34.7% decrease from July 2023, and a 52.9% decrease from July 2022. By region, sales areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities decreased by 27.9%, 15.9%, and 12.3% year - on - year respectively [29]. - The car market's retail sales are steadily strong. In July, retail sales increased by 9% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 17% year - on - year. Since February 2025, the industry replacement rate has been stable above 60%, becoming the main driving force for the passenger car market [31]. - Steel prices maintain resilience. On July 29, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 2.1%, 0.8%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respectively compared to July 22. Steel products have had inventory accumulation for two consecutive weeks. On July 25, the inventory of five major steel products was 9.271 million tons, a 50,000 - ton increase from July 18 [36]. - Cement prices are near previous lows. On July 29, the national cement price index decreased by 1.6% compared to July 22, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions dropping by 2.3% and 2.7% respectively. The national cement market continues to operate weakly with obvious regional differentiation [39]. - Glass prices have corrected. On July 29, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,182 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from July 22. High inventory has dragged down prices [45]. - The container shipping freight index has declined for seven consecutive weeks. On July 25, the CCFI index decreased by 3.2% compared to July 18, and the SCFI index decreased by 3.3%. Except for the European route, the freight rates of the other three major ocean routes continued to fall [49]. 3.2 Inflation: Pig Prices Weaken 3.2.1 CPI: Pig Prices Weaken - Pig prices are weakening. On July 29, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.5 yuan/kg, a 1.2% decrease from July 22. Terminal consumption is suppressed by high temperatures, and the long - term supply is abundant. In July, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.6 yuan/kg, a 1.2% increase month - on - month and a 16.9% decrease year - on - year [56]. - The agricultural product price index oscillates weakly. On July 29, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.04% compared to July 22. By variety, the price changes were in the order of eggs (up 5.1%) > fruits (up 1.7%) > mutton (up 0.9%) > vegetables (up 0.7%) > chicken (up 0.4%) > beef (down 0.02%) > pork (down 1.2%) [60]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Rise - Oil prices are rising. On July 29, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.6 and 69.2 dollars/barrel respectively, increasing by 2.2% and 6.0% compared to July 22. Concerns about crude oil supply support oil prices [63]. - Copper and aluminum prices are falling. On July 29, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 0.9% and 1.2% respectively compared to July 22. Most industrial product prices increased in July, and the year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices narrowed [69][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report This week, due to the strong performance of risk assets such as commodities and stocks, the bond market was significantly impacted, leading to a decline in the performance of ultra - long - term credit bonds. The supply of new ultra - long - term credit bonds increased, while the secondary market trading was weak, and the buying willingness decreased. In the future, attention should be paid to the entry rhythm of incremental funds from insurance and wealth management [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long - term credit bond yields retreated. This week, affected by the strong performance of risk assets, the yields of existing ultra - long - term credit bonds significantly adjusted, and the yield center rose to 2.1% - 2.3% [2][13]. 2. Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long - term credit bonds increased. This week, the total issuance scale of new ultra - long - term credit bonds was 36.41 billion, significantly higher than that in the first three weeks of July. Some issuers may have issued bonds to reduce financing costs when long - term bond interest rates were relatively low [3][22]. - The average coupon rate of new ultra - long - term industrial bonds rose and remained at a relatively low level of 18.1% since 2024 [3][22]. - The subscription enthusiasm in the primary market declined. Due to the improvement of investors' risk appetite, the subscription enthusiasm for ultra - long - term credit bonds in the primary market dropped significantly [3][22]. 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The ultra - long - term credit bond index dropped sharply. This week, the weekly declines of the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year AA + credit bond indexes reached - 0.73% and 1.31% respectively, erasing the gains in July [4][31]. - The number of long - term bond transactions decreased. Except for 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds, the number of transactions of long - term bonds with other maturities decreased to some extent. However, the trading volume of long - term secondary capital bonds increased significantly, possibly due to the early position - swapping of some institutional investors [4][34]. - The buying willingness weakened. Against the background of the sharp decline in the bond market, the buying willingness for ultra - long - term credit bonds significantly weakened, and the TKN transaction ratio of over - 10 - year credit bonds dropped to 46.5% [4][38]. - High - valuation transactions were dominant. This week, the selling pressure on ultra - long - term credit bonds was significant, mainly in the form of high - valuation transactions, with the valuation deviation of 10 - 20 - year industrial bonds being relatively high [4][38]. - Fund selling increased. Since last week, due to concerns about insufficient spread protection for ultra - long - term credit bonds, funds have significantly adjusted their positions. This week, the net buying ratio of 7 - 30 - year bonds continued to decline, and the total scale of funds selling over - 7 - year ultra - long - term general credit bonds reached 5.77 billion [4][42]. - The spread between active ultra - long - term credit bonds and Treasury bonds widened. From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between active ultra - long - term credit bonds and Treasury bonds of similar maturities widened this week, but the spread of active ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of 20 years and above was still at a relatively low level [5][43].