当地时间 5 月 7 日，美联储宣布将联邦基金目标利率区间维持在 4.25%-4.50%，这是自 2024 年 9 月本轮降息周期开启 以来的连续第三次"暂停"。2024 年 9 月至 12 月，美联储连续三次会议分别降息 50/25/25bps，累计幅度达 100bps。 美联储降息自由度继续受限，"滞胀"风险进一步凸显 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 美联储 2025 年 5 月会议将联邦基金目标利率区间维持在 4.25%-4.50%，符合市场预期，这也是本轮降息周期开启后的 连续第三次"暂停"。或是考虑到在 3 月议息会议后公布的大超预期的"对等关税"，此次会议声明在 3 月的基础上，进一 步强调了在特朗普极高的政策不确定性背景下，对美国经济"滞胀"风险的担忧，值得关注的声明变动如下：1）将 3 月份 声明中新增的"经济前景不确定性增加"的表述强化为"进一步增加"(increased further)；2）新增"认为高失业和高通 胀的风险都有所上升"的表述，换言之，美联储认为实现双重目标的难度均有所加大。 美联储反复强调"政策不确定性"，因此难以给出清晰的利率路径指引，短期内重启降息周期 ...

基本内容 "抢消费"、"抢进口"、"抢库存"、"抢设备投资"，是在关税乌云下美国经济活动前置的真实写照；近期美国经济一 些数据表现说明美国全行业都几乎处于关税到来前的"活动激增"状态，这种状态的持续性相对脆弱，也从某种程度 上掩盖了周期性走弱所带来的增长放缓。 美国经济的循环更可能呈现系统性的走弱，广泛而缓慢的发生在所有部门，并没有任何单一的实体部门具备明显脆弱 点；走弱的斜率将随着关税对实体经济冲击的显现而越发增加，也会随着特朗普其他"内政"的深入推进而产生更明 显变化。 因此当美国衰退逐渐成为"共识"之后，很重要的一点是不能只戴着关税"滤镜"来看待美国经济，关税视角的解释 效用正在下降，衰退来自于特朗普上任后更广泛的政策变化。 美国经济未来走出衰退，需要的不仅是关税战的偃旗息鼓，还有利率和通胀的自然回落，以及特朗普一系列排毒式的 "内政改革"取得成果。 风险提示 1）"DOGE"改革的进程推进节奏 2）特朗普关税政策巨大的不确定性 3）美国企业劳动力需求快速恶化 4）美国债务上 限难以解决导致政府停摆 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 "抢消费"、"抢进口"、"抢库存"、"抢设 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with an expected increase of over 15% in the next 3-6 months [6]. Core Insights - The reform plan aims to innovate and restructure the quantitative assessment system, which is expected to influence institutional investment behavior, promote long-term investment, and encourage the development of equity funds, ultimately benefiting the healthy development of the capital market [4]. - The plan includes a mechanism linking management fees to fund performance, enhancing the "risk-sharing, benefit-sharing" ecosystem, which is anticipated to restore investor confidence and attract more retail funds into the market [4]. - The initiative emphasizes increasing the proportion of equity products, which, along with policies encouraging long-term capital inflows, positions public funds as a core force in institutional investment, likely improving market pricing efficiency and stability [4]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On May 7, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released the "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds," outlining new regulations regarding fund operation models, assessment systems, and industry development [1]. Event Commentary - The plan optimizes fund operation models by establishing a performance-linked floating management fee mechanism, aiming for top institutions to issue at least 60% of their actively managed equity funds in this format within a year [2]. - It enhances the industry assessment system by emphasizing long-term performance metrics, with at least 50% weight on investment returns for executives and 80% for fund managers [2]. - The plan also aims to improve the compensation management system for fund managers, linking their pay to fund performance relative to benchmarks [2]. Investment Recommendations - The reform is expected to shift the industry focus from "quantity to quality," encouraging fund companies to enhance research capabilities and operational efficiency for competitive differentiation [4]. - The linkage of fees and performance is anticipated to lead fund managers to favor stocks aligned with their investment styles, potentially improving overall fund performance [4].

"双降"是否构成增量利好？ "双降"落地，时点略超预期。 5 月 7 日上午，国新办举行三部委联合新闻发布会，人民银行行长潘功胜宣布 10 项货币政策新举措，内容涵盖数量 类、价格类及结构类三大方向。重点包括降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点、下调政策利率和 LPR10BP、降低结构性货 币政策工具和个人公积金贷款利率 25BP 等。 结合此前预期看，此次下调 OMO 利率 10BP+降准 50BP 的组合在力度上并未显著超出市场预期，真正略显意外的是其 宣布的时点。今年 1-4 月央行持续保持定力，市场对宽货币落地时间的期待不断后延。由于预期后延，4 月收益率曲 线呈牛平走势，长短端表现有较大差异，因而本次"双降"是否构成增量利好，要区分长短端看待： 对长端而言，本次降息虽释放了宽松信号，但并未有效打开全年更大幅度的降息空间。市场此前对全年的宽货币幅度 已有较充分预期。在此背景下，此次双降尚不足以构成推动长端利率下破 1 月低点的有力催化剂。 对短端而言，从 4 月市场表现来看，短端利率债整体走势偏保守：曲线平坦化、5 年以内国债收益率下行幅度仅追上 或甚至小于资金利率降幅、短端对贸易摩擦的定价也相对温和。 ...

事件概况 国务院新闻办公室于 2025 年 5月 7 日上午 9 时举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国 证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 事件点评 一是资金面迎利好： 1）发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜介绍，降准 0.5 个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿元，并降低 政策利率 0.1 个百分点； 2）证监会主席吴清在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，全力支持中央汇金公司发挥类平准基金作用； 3）优化两项支持资本市场货币政策工具，将 5000 亿元证券基金保险公司互换便利和 3000 亿元股票增持回购再 贷款两个工具的额度合并，总额度变为 8000 亿元。宽松的货币政策以及支持资本市场的政策工具为资本市场创 造了良好的流动性环境，体现了监管呵护资本市场的决心与信心，有利于市场情绪的提升。 二是改革端有深化： 国新办发布会上，吴清主席表示大力推动中长期资金入市，抓紧印发和落实《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方 案》、抓紧发布新修订的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》。预计未来基金公司将从"重规模"向"重回报" 转变，与投资者利益绑定，更利于 ...

业绩简评 2025 年 5 月 7 日公司披露 25Q1 业绩，25Q1 公司实现营收 74.38 亿美元，同比+36%，GAAP 毛利率为 50%，同比+3pct，GAAP 净利润 为 8.06 亿美元，同比+2139%。公司 25Q1 Non-GAAP 毛利率为 54%， 同比+2pct，Non-GAAP 净利润 15.66 亿美元，同比+55%。 公司指引 25Q2 营收为 74±3 亿美元，Non-GAAP 毛利率为 43%，其 中包括 MI308 限制销售造成的 8 亿库存减值损失，如果不考虑该 库存减值损失，预计 25Q2 毛利率为 54%。 经营分析 公司数据中心业务、PC CPU 业务实现高速同比增长。公司 25Q1 数据中心、客户端（PC CPU）业务实现营收 36.74、22.94 亿美元， 同比+57.21%、+67.69%。我们认为，公司数据中心业务营收增长 主要来自 MI 系列 AI 芯片的放量，以及服务器 CPU 端份额的提升； 公司客户端收入营收增长主要来自 Zen5 Ryzen CPU 批量出货带动 的 ASP 提升，以及客户因关税提前备货带动的销量增长。公司游 戏业务 25Q ...

Economic Activity Insights - The U.S. economy is experiencing a preemptive surge in activity due to tariffs, characterized by "grabbing consumption," "grabbing imports," "grabbing inventory," and "grabbing equipment investment" [2] - Recent data indicates that all sectors of the U.S. economy are in a state of heightened activity, which may mask underlying cyclical weaknesses [2] - The overall economic cycle is likely to show systemic weakening across all sectors, with no single sector exhibiting significant vulnerabilities [23] Consumption and Investment Trends - Private sector final purchases remain relatively robust, but this growth is largely driven by preemptive demand for goods, particularly durable goods [4] - Consumer spending is expected to weaken further, as income growth, particularly in non-farm payrolls, is showing signs of slowing down [6] - The wealth effect supporting consumer resilience is diminishing, with total wealth growth for U.S. households expected to slow down significantly in Q1 2025 [9] Labor Market Dynamics - Non-farm payroll data shows healthy job growth, but the demand for labor may face challenges as companies respond to tariff impacts [15] - Job vacancy numbers have been declining, indicating a cautious approach from businesses regarding hiring amid tariff uncertainties [20] Risks and Policy Implications - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies poses significant risks to economic stability, with potential for increased volatility [24] - A broader range of policy changes since Trump's administration is contributing to the economic downturn, suggesting that tariff perspectives alone may not fully explain the situation [23] - Future recovery from recession will require not only a resolution to the tariff conflict but also a natural decline in interest rates and inflation, alongside successful domestic reforms [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The yield of ultra - long credit bonds unexpectedly declined, and the sentiment for subscribing to new ultra - long credit bonds warmed up, but the index increase of ultra - long credit bonds was difficult to match that of treasury bonds, and the spread of ultra - long credit bonds widened passively, showing the problems of slow growth and low cost - effectiveness [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1存量市场特征 - The yield of ultra - long credit bonds unexpectedly declined. Factors such as the loosening of the capital market at the cross - month node and continuous trade frictions strengthened the bullish logic of the bond market. Before the holiday, the yield of long - duration interest - rate bonds dropped rapidly, and the interest rate of ultra - long credit bonds also declined. More than a hundred existing ultra - long credit bonds had yields below 2.2% compared with the previous week [2][13] 3.2一级发行情况 - The sentiment for subscribing to ultra - long credit bonds warmed up. Before the holiday, the supply of new ultra - long credit bonds slowed down. However, the average issuance interest rate of ultra - long industrial bonds rebounded to 2.39%. Benefiting from the increase in the coupon yield of new bonds and the loosening of the capital market, the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds showed signs of marginal warming [3][22] 3.3二级成交表现 - The index increase of ultra - long credit bonds was difficult to match that of treasury bonds. Treasury bonds over 10 years strengthened rapidly. Although the ultra - long credit bond index followed the increase, the increase was far less than that of interest - rate bonds. The weekly increase of AA + credit bonds over 10 years was only 0.21% [4][29] - The trading volume of ultra - long credit bonds suddenly increased. Within three trading days of the week before the holiday, the number of transactions of credit bonds over 7 years exceeded the readings of the previous two weeks, with the most obvious increase in the trading volume of 7 - 10 - year long - term bonds. The sudden increase in trading volume may be related to some investors missing the interest - rate market and then increasing their allocation of ultra - long credit bonds to make up for losses. Since April, the proportion of transactions of new ultra - long credit bonds has increased significantly, and the reading in the latest week was close to 30% [4][30] - In the latest week, the proportion of TKN transactions of ultra - long credit bonds rose to over 75%, and the overall trading form was mainly low - valuation transactions [4] - Before the holiday, both public funds and wealth management products had positive net purchases of ultra - long credit bonds. In particular, the scale of wealth management products' increase in holdings of long - term credit bonds over 5 years reached a two - year high, with a weekly net purchase scale of 1.75 billion, exceeding that of insurance, a stable buyer [4][38] - From a more microscopic perspective, the spread of ultra - long credit bonds widened passively. The credit spreads of active bonds around 10 years and 30 years both exceeded 60bp, rising to over 80% of the quantile level in the past 24 years. Although the net price of active ultra - long credit bonds also increased in the latest week, the increase was significantly weaker than that of interest - rate bonds of the same term. The floating profits of long - term bond issuers below 20 years were not much different from those of medium - term issuers, exposing the problems of "slow growth and low cost - effectiveness" of this variety [5][43]

整车竞争的核心是爆款大单品，其背后是一家公司的自身战略。 汽车整车具有一面制造、一面消费、一面周期的三重特性，并有逐步向科技品转型的趋势。其中在周期角度，长期以 来，整车的市场竞争均是围绕打造爆款大单品展开的，导致车企销量明显围绕新品周期呈现周期波动，并影响车企股 价跟随其销量、订单波动。因而，判定整车新车爆款对于汽车研究至关重要，我们认为，整车爆款主要围绕三个要素 展开，分别是市场竞争格局（外部因素）、品牌力（车企本身）、性价比（产品本身）。并最终形成了新兴市场策略、 性价比策略、品牌力策略三种爆款产品打造策略。需要强调的是，虽然车企爆款产品的打造策略各不相同，但爆款大 单品背后是整车厂自身战略的体现，因而只要主机厂在战略上走在正确的道路上，其爆款大单品的打造能力就是有保 障的。 复盘整车产品打造策略：新能车时代比亚迪、吉利、小鹏、零跑、理想爆款打造能力最强 由整车爆款产品的三个要素而来，我们认为，整车的产品打造策略有三种：1）新兴市场策略：公司产品集中布局于此 前总量少、供给匮乏的细分市场，即我们常说的蓝海市场，如理想增程系列，长城哈弗 H6、坦克系列等；需要的是一 家公司对细分市场的判断足够精准；2）性 ...

事件 5 月 7 日，金融监管总局局长李云泽在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，一是进一步扩大保险资金长期投资试点范围， 近期拟再批复 600 亿元，为市场注入更多增量资金；二是调整偿付能力监管规则，将股票投资的风险因子进一步调降 10%，鼓励保险公司加大入市力度；三是推动完善长周期考核机制，调动机构积极性，促进实现"长钱长投"。 核心内容 长期股票投资试点：截至当前金融监管总局批复的保险资金长期投资改革试点已达 1620 亿元，共计 8 家头部险企参 与，预计主要投向为二级市场优质的高股息标的。 股票投资风险因子：偿付能力充足率水平决定保险公司投资权益的上限，偿付能力对于权益配置的约束在于权益投资 *风险因子影响最低资本要求，以投资沪深 300 的基础因子从 0.3 优化至 0.27、2025Q1 偿付能力、2024 年股票数据进 行简单测算，对平安寿、太保寿、国寿、新华核心偿付能力充足率提振幅度分别为 4.4%/6.3%/4.4%/7.9%，综合偿付 能力充足率提振分别为 6.1%/9.9%/6.0%/11.0%，因此降低股票投资风险因子将缓释股票持仓高的险企的偿付能力压力， 打开险资入市空间，加快险资入市进程 ...