Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations with revenue of $2.981 billion, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year. System sales rose by 2%, and core operating profit reached $405 million, reflecting an 8% increase after excluding currency effects [2]. - Profitability continues to improve, with the overall restaurant profit margin at 18.6%, up by 1.0 percentage points, driven by higher gross margins and a decrease in the proportion of property rents and other operating costs [3]. - The company is making progress with new store formats, including the successful expansion of KFC and Pizza Hut, with KFC's same-store sales decline narrowing and significant increases in order volume for Pizza Hut [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1, KFC's system sales increased by 3%, with a same-store sales growth rate holding steady. The restaurant profit margin improved to 19.8%, benefiting from lower raw material costs and operational efficiencies [3]. - Pizza Hut also saw a 3% increase in system sales, with a notable 17% rise in order volume. The restaurant profit margin improved to 14.4%, despite a decline in average customer spending [4]. - The company forecasts a steady improvement in same-store sales growth driven by new product marketing, price increases at KFC, and enhanced value propositions at Pizza Hut [5]. Financial Projections - The company projects net profits for 2025 to be $940 million, with a growth rate of 3.2%, and anticipates a combined shareholder return of $3 billion over 2025-2026, highlighting a strong dividend yield [5]. - Key financial metrics include projected revenue growth rates of 2.82% for 2025 and 3.83% for 2026, with a consistent increase in diluted earnings per share [10].

利率择时模型：总信号维持看利率震荡。 波动信号由 2025 年 4 月 21 日开始看利率上行，趋势信号由 2025 年 4 月 24 日开始看利率下行，模型总体看利率震 荡。本信号为量化模型客观运行结果，谨供参考。 久期全知道：久期继续上升。 4 月 28 日至 4 月 30 日，公募基金久期中位值上升 0.01 至 2.95 年，处于过去三年 77%分位。 久期全知道：分歧度增加。 4 月 28 日至 4 月 30 日，久期分歧度指数上升至 0.58，处于过去三年 84%分位。 风险提示 模型适用性风险，模型估算误差 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 利率择时模型 模型最新信号：模型维持看利率震荡 图表1：择时模型信号 | 信号类型 | 最新判断 | 起始时间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 总信号方向 | 利率震荡 | 2025/4/24 | | 趋势 | 利率下行 | 2025/4/24 | | 波动 | 利率上行 | 2025/4/21 | 来源：国金证券研究所 模型信号解读：波动信号由 2025 年 4 月 21 日开始看利率上行，趋势信号由 2 ...

事件 公司发布一季报：公司实现营业收入 20.65 亿元，同比微降 0.47%； 实现归母净利润 2.76 亿元，同比增长 24.70%；实现扣非归母净利 润 2.69 亿元，同比增长 28.27%。 经营分析 新能源汽车齿轮带动公司业绩稳健增长。公司主营业务收入在 2025Q1 实现 12.48%的同比增长，新能源汽车齿轮业务是其核心 增长引擎。这得益于公司作为行业龙头，深度绑定全球领先的电 动车企，订单有保障。海外拓展是未来重要看点，公司匈牙利工 厂建设顺利推进，预计将承接欧洲客户订单，打开新的增长空 间。公司凭借国内积累的成本和效率优势，在海外市场具备较强 竞争力。 盈利能力持续改善。2025Q1 公司毛利率约为 26.8%，较去年同期 提升了 4.2 个百分点。毛利率提升主要受益于：1）主营业务规 模效应显现；2）高毛利产品（如新能源车齿轮，尤其是混动、 同轴减速器齿轮）占比提升带来的产品结构优化；3）公司持续 推进的降本提效措施取得成效。费用方面，公司期间费用管控良 好。销售费用率 1.00% (同比-0.17pct)，管理费用率 3.76% (同 比-0.11pct)，财务费用率 0.44% (同 ...

一、存量市场概览 截止上周五，地方债存量规模达到 50.49 万亿元。存续的地方债中新增专项债规模占比超过 43%，再融资专项债占比 为 21%。明确资金用途的存量债中，棚户区改造、园区新区建设、乡村振兴是规模较大的投向领域，存量余额均在 1 万亿以上。其次收费公路存量余额超过 8700 亿元，水利和生态项目存量余额也在 2000 亿以上。截止 4 月 25 日，广 东、江苏、山东地方债存量规模仍位居三甲，三省地方债存量规模均超过 3 万亿元，其余 GDP 大省如四川、浙江、湖 南、河南、河北、湖北存量规模也位于 2 万亿以上。 二、一级供给节奏 上周地方政府债共发行 1911.22 亿元，较前一周微降。其中，新增专项债 1167.07 亿元，再融资专项债 429.21 亿元。 分募集资金用途来看，"普通/项目收益"和"偿还地方债券"是专项债资金的主要投放领域，"置换隐性债务"发行 规模较上周有所下降。截至 4 月 25 日，4 月份特殊再融资专项债发行已有 2616.69 亿元，占当月地方债发行规模的 比例达到 37.74%。 发行期限结构方面，上周 1-7 年和 7-10 年期地方债发行占比相对较高，占比 ...

存量市场特征 超长信用债再临调整。"负 carry"担忧缓释、关税政策释放缓和信号，债市做多情绪回归冷静，超长信用债收益率 继续回调。与上周相比，2.4%以上收益率的存量超长信用债只数增加不少。 一级发行情况 超长信用债单周发行量创新高。长债收益率总体偏低，发债主体发行超长债的成本优势仍在，最新一周超长信用债新 增供给量突破 800 亿，其中 7-10 年超长产业债是本周超长信用债的主要扩容品种。从发行利率走势来看，超长产业 债平均票面利率还在下行，读数已不及 2.2%。也正是由于较低的票面收益，超长信用新债投资性价比稍显不足，本周 一级市场认购情绪延续降温。 二级成交表现 超长信用债指数跌幅靠前。债市整体回调，主流债券全价指数多有下跌，其中超长信用债指数调整幅度相对大于其余 债券品种，10 年以上 AA+信用债周度跌幅 0.77%。 超长信用债成交再现冷清。最新一周 7 年以上城投债成交笔数缩减至 40 笔以下，是今年 2 月以来成交量相对最小的 一周；超长产业债单周累计成交笔数也已不足 200 笔，性价比偏低是制约其成交走向活跃的难题。从成交收益来看， 7 年以上产业债平均成交收益率仅在 2.3%附近，相 ...

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 3.00 5.00 7.00 9.00 11.00 240430 240731 241031 250131 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 潮宏基 沪深300 产品力优势显著，看好公司持续跑出α，预计 25-27 年归母 净利润为 4.81/5.79/6.69 亿元，同比+148%/+20%/+15.5%， 对应 PE 分别为 19/16/14 倍，维持"买入"评级。 终端消费疲软、加盟拓展不及预期、金价剧烈波动，女包业 务恢复不及预期等。 | 项目 | 2023 2025E | 2024 | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,900 7,968 | 6,518 | 9,312 10,697 | | | 营业收入增长率 | 33.56% 10.48% 22.25% 16.86% | | | 14.87% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 333 | | | 669 | | 归母净利润增长率 | 67.41% -41.91% 148.29% 20. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6-12 months with expected price appreciation of over 15% [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.47 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [3]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, representing an 80% year-on-year growth and a 4% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a net profit of 83 million yuan, up 171% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in its iron-lithium segment, with revenues of 4.8 billion yuan, a 72% increase year-on-year, and a sales volume of 126,000 tons, up 179% year-on-year [4]. - The automotive parts business is expanding, with multiple new projects secured, including components for leading electric vehicle manufacturers [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company reported a total revenue of 8.47 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 320 million yuan, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [3]. - Q1 2025 results showed a revenue of 2.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 83 million yuan, both significantly higher than the previous year [3]. Operational Analysis - The iron-lithium segment saw a revenue increase to 4.8 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 20.8 percentage points [4]. - The automotive parts segment is gaining traction with several new projects, including components for popular electric vehicle models [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 900 million yuan, 1.45 billion yuan, and 2.02 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. - The report highlights a structural supply-demand tightness in the high-pressure iron-lithium market, with expectations for continued market share growth and profit improvement [6].

产品力优势显著，看好公司持续跑出α，预计 25-27 年归母 净利润为 4.81/5.79/6.69 亿元，同比+148%/+20%/+15.5%， 对应 PE 分别为 19/16/14 倍，维持"买入"评级。 终端消费疲软、加盟拓展不及预期、金价剧烈波动，女包业 务恢复不及预期等。 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 3.00 5.00 7.00 9.00 11.00 240430 240731 241031 250131 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 潮宏基 沪深300 | 项目 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,900 | 6,518 | 7,968 | 9.312 10.697 | | | 营业收入增长率 | | 33.56% 10.48% 22.25% 16.86% 14.87% | | | | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 333 | 194 194 481 | | 579 | 669 | | 归母净利润增长 ...

业绩简评 4 月 29 日公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年实 现营业收入 826 亿元，同比-36%，归母净利润-86.18 亿元，同比 -180%。其中Q4实现归母净利/扣非归母净利分别为-21.13/-22.59 亿元。25Q1 公司实现营收 137 亿元，同比-23%、环比-43%，实现 归母净利/扣非归母净利分别为-14.36/-19.83 亿元。 经营分析 产业链价格下降盈利承压，BC 组件出货占比持续提升。2024 年公司实现电池组件出货 82.32GW，其中组件外售 73.48GW、同增 10.6%，BC 产品出货超 17GW；2024 年产业链价格持续下跌，公司 电池组件业务毛利率 6.27%，同比下降 12.11PCT。2024 年公司实 现硅片出货 108.46GW，其中外售 46.55GW、同降 13.45%；硅片价 格持续下跌背景下，公司持续进行成本优化，2024 年硅片非硅成 本同比下降 19%，硅片业务毛利率为-14.31%。25Q1 公司实现硅片 出货 23.46GW（外售 11.26GW）；电池组件出货量 16.93GW，其中 BC 组件销量 4. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected revenue growth and profit margins improving over the next few years [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.856 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.59%, and a net profit of 118 million RMB, down 37.30% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the divestiture of the wireless automotive business, but excluding this impact, the company’s revenue is expected to show growth [3]. - The company is focusing on growth in the automotive and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) sectors, driven by new customer acquisitions and increased 5G penetration in overseas markets [3]. - The establishment of an AI research institute and a robotics product line indicates a strategic shift towards AI and robotics, which are anticipated to become significant growth drivers for the company [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 17%, a decrease of 4.51 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 2.04 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The net profit margin improved to 6.5%, reflecting a 5.5 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 8.598 billion, 10.742 billion, and 13.367 billion RMB respectively, with net profits of 646 million, 796 million, and 1.019 billion RMB [5]. Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency, with a 34.65% reduction in sales expenses and a 93.57% decrease in financial expenses due to reduced foreign exchange losses [3]. - The AI and robotics initiatives are expected to create a second growth curve, contributing positively to the company's performance in the coming years [4].