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公募基础设施REITs周报-20251130
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-30 01:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a weekly analysis of public - offering infrastructure REITs from November 24 to November 28, 2025, including secondary - market price - volume performance, valuation, market correlation, and primary - market tracking [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary - market Price - volume Performance - Various REITs' performance data are provided, including weekly return, year - to - date return, turnover rate, trading volume, etc. For example, in the warehousing and logistics sector, the weekly return of Hongtu Innovation Yantian Port REIT was 1.24%, and the year - to - date return was - 1.07% [9]. 3.2 Secondary - market Valuation Situation 3.2.1 Valuation of Equity - type REITs - As of this Friday, the top three products in terms of internal rate of return (IRR) are E Fund Guangzhou High - tech Industrial Park REIT, CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT, and Huaxia HeDa High - tech REIT, with corresponding IRRs of 8.74%, 8.45%, and 7.66% respectively. Some REITs have P/FFO and P/NAV indicators lower than the industry average, and the top three in expected cash distribution rate are CJGX Shounong REIT, E Fund Guangzhou High - tech Industrial Park REIT, and CICC Hubei KeTou Optics Valley REIT [19][20][21]. 3.2.2 Valuation of Concession - type REITs - As of this Friday, the top three products in terms of IRR are Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT, Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT, and CICC Anhui Expressway REIT, with corresponding IRRs of 9.46%, 9.45%, and 6.94% respectively. Some REITs have P/FFO and P/NAV indicators lower than the industry average, and the top three in expected cash distribution rate are E Fund Shenzhen Expressway REIT, ICBC Inner Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT, and Zheshang Shanghai - Hangzhou - Ningbo REIT [22][23][24]. 3.3 Market Correlation Statistics - At the level of the correlation coefficient between REITs and major asset classes, this week, the correlation coefficient between REITs and the Shanghai Composite Index was the highest at 0.20. The correlation coefficients between REITs and other major asset classes such as CSI 300, ChiNext Index, etc., are also provided. Different types of REITs have different correlation coefficients with major asset classes [25][26]. 3.4 Primary - market Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, there are 12 REIT products still in the exchange acceptance stage and 1 in the passed - to - be - listed state. This week, Dongfanghong Tunnel Road Expressway REIT and Ping An Xi'an High - tech Industrial Park REIT were submitted to the exchange [28][29].
医保谈判结果公布在即,关注 ASH 大会
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-29 14:55
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the innovative drug sector, indicating a rebound and potential for further growth in the upcoming months [3][6]. Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is expected to see a rebound after previous adjustments, with significant catalysts anticipated in December and January. The results of the national medical insurance negotiations will be released in early December, which may impact the inclusion of domestic innovative drugs in the insurance catalog [3][14]. - The upcoming American Society of Hematology (ASH) conference from December 6-9 is highlighted as a key event, with multiple differentiated hematology products expected to present new data [3][4][42]. - The CXO sector shows a continuous upward trend, supported by the rapid growth of new orders and backlog, ensuring performance release in the next 1-2 years [4][53]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on dual/multi-target drugs for various cancers and chronic diseases, as well as opportunities in ADCs and small nucleic acid therapies [6][15]. - The report notes that the innovative drug financing data is showing marginal improvement, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [6][15]. Biologics - The report mentions positive preliminary results from the Phase II clinical trial of amycretin for Type 2 diabetes, suggesting continued monitoring of its clinical progress [4][46]. Medical Devices - The report highlights the emergence of innovative domestic medical devices, with expectations for profit margins to stabilize and improve as new products are approved [5]. Traditional Chinese Medicine & Pharmacies - The report suggests monitoring companies with strong brand power and good inventory management, such as China Resources Sanjiu and Jichuan Pharmaceutical, due to rising flu incidence [5]. Medical Services and Consumer Healthcare - The report discusses a collaboration between a traditional Chinese medicine group and a local health bureau to enhance the capabilities of grassroots medical services through technology [5]. Key Investment Targets - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Innovent Biologics, Kintor Pharmaceutical, and others in the innovative drug and medical device sectors [7].
公募基础设施REITs周报-20251129
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-29 13:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This report is a weekly report on public - offering infrastructure REITs from November 24, 2025, to November 28, 2025, presenting secondary - market price - volume performance, valuation, market correlation statistics, and primary - market tracking of REITs [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary - Market Price - Volume Performance - The report details the performance of various REITs, including listing date, issue price, trading volume, turnover rate, return on the listing day, return since listing, return this week, return last week, and return since the beginning of this year. For example, the red - clay innovation Yantian Port REIT had an issue price of 2.3 yuan on June 21, 2021, with a listing - day return of 2.91% and a return since listing of 19.98%. Its trading volume this week was 0.09 (in 100 million shares), and the turnover rate was 1.24% [9] 3.2 Secondary - Market Valuation Situation - The report compares indicators such as P/FFO, P/NAV, current quantile, IRR, PV multiplier, and cash distribution rate of different REITs. For instance, the red - clay innovation Yantian Port REIT has a P/FFO of 19.15, a P/NAV of 1.06, and a current quantile of 48.00% [20] 3.3 Market Correlation Statistics - The report shows the correlation coefficients between REITs and various asset types, including stocks, convertible bonds, pure bonds, and commodities. For example, the correlation coefficient between REITs and the Shanghai Composite Index is 0.20, and that between energy - type REITs and the Shanghai Composite Index is 0.04 [27] 3.4 Primary - Market Tracking - The report lists the status of multiple REIT projects in the primary market, including project nature, project type, stage, acceptance date, original equity holder, underlying project, and project valuation. For example, the Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT is a property - type project in the warehousing and logistics industry. It has passed the review, and its acceptance date was June 30, 2025. The project is valued at 22.49 billion yuan [29]
波司登(03998):H1 经营符合预期,期待旺季销售提速
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-28 15:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.928 billion RMB for the first half of FY2026, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.189 billion RMB, up 5.3%, aligning with expectations [2]. - The company's down jacket business saw revenue of 6.568 billion RMB, growing 8.3% year-on-year, driven by steady growth in both direct and franchise channels [3]. - The gross margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, although the down jacket gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% due to a higher proportion of lower-margin distribution channels [4]. - The company is optimistic about its performance in the second half of the year, supported by successful new product launches and effective inventory management [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company achieved a revenue of 8.928 billion RMB in the first half of FY2026, with a net profit of 1.189 billion RMB, reflecting a 1.4% and 5.3% increase respectively [2]. Operational Analysis - The down jacket segment generated 6.568 billion RMB in revenue, with the main brand, Bosideng, contributing 5.719 billion RMB, showing an 8.3% increase [3]. - The online channel revenue for down jackets was 1.383 billion RMB, up 2.4%, while offline direct and franchise channels reported revenues of 2.411 billion RMB and 3.701 billion RMB, growing 6.6% and 7.9% respectively [3]. Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin increased slightly to 50.0%, with effective cost control reflected in the marketing management expense ratio [4]. - Inventory turnover days decreased by 11 days compared to the previous year, indicating improved inventory management [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.920 billion RMB, 4.322 billion RMB, and 4.739 billion RMB for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [5].
北新建材(000786):拟重启远大洪雨并购,夯实防水翼
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-27 07:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The acquisition of 80% stakes in two companies enhances the company's market share in the waterproofing materials sector, particularly in North China. The acquisition price has been adjusted downwards due to the decline in the waterproofing industry's market conditions compared to 2022 [3][4]. - The company anticipates an increase in production capacity for various waterproofing materials, including 12 million square meters of asphalt waterproofing membranes, 4 million square meters of polymer waterproofing membranes, and 159,000 tons of waterproof coatings [3]. - The financial performance for the first half of 2025 shows a revenue of approximately 2.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of about 6%, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, also reflecting a 6% increase [3]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The total price for acquiring 80% stakes in Tangshan Yuanda Hongyu Waterproof Materials Co., Ltd. and Suzhou Yuanda Hongyu Building Materials Technology Co., Ltd. is 418 million yuan. The adjusted acquisition price reflects the current market conditions in the waterproofing industry [2][4]. - The expected revenue and net profit for the Tangshan entity in 2024 are 820 million yuan and 80 million yuan, respectively, with a net profit margin of approximately 9.8% [4]. - The expected revenue and net profit for the Suzhou entity in 2024 are 199 million yuan and 2 million yuan, respectively, with a net profit growth of 40.5% [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 25.99 billion yuan, 27.88 billion yuan, and 29.22 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 7%, and 5% respectively. The projected net profits for the same period are 3.15 billion yuan, 3.66 billion yuan, and 4.01 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 7%, and 8% respectively [5][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios based on the closing price on November 26 are projected to be 13, 11, and 10 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5].
债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告:供给端减产加速钢材去库:2025年11月第3周
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-26 15:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side production cuts are accelerating the destocking of steel products, while inflation shows signs of the decline in pork prices slowing down. [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking 1.1 Production: Limited Increment in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has limited increment. On November 25, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 79.3 tons, down 1.3% from November 18. On November 18, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 186 tons, up 3.3% from November 11. [4][11] - The blast furnace operating rate has been declining this month. On November 21, the national blast furnace operating rate was 82.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from November 14; the capacity utilization rate was 88.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from November 14. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 91.2% compared to November 14. [4][15] - The tire operating rate has declined. On November 20, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 61.3%, down 3.2 percentage points from November 13; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 71.1%, down 2.6 percentage points from November 13. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to decline. [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Supply - side Production Cuts Accelerate Steel Destocking - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has improved month - on - month. From November 1 - 25, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 243,000 square meters, up 11.9% from the same period in October, but down 30.4% from the same period last November, 20.1% from the same period in 2023, and 35.9% from the same period in 2022. [4][23] - The retail sales of the auto market have improved week by week. In November, retail sales were down 11% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 8% year - on - year. [4][27] - Steel prices fluctuated within a narrow range. On November 25, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by + 0.6%, - 0.3%, + 1.5%, and - 0.1% respectively compared to November 18. [4][32] - Cement prices remained stable. On November 25, the national cement price index remained flat compared to November 18. Cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell by 0.7%. [4][33] - Glass prices fluctuated strongly. On November 26, the active glass futures contract price was 1,026 yuan/ton, up 1.1% from November 19. [4][38] - The container shipping freight index showed a pattern of near - term decline and long - term increase. On November 21, the CCFI index rose 2.6% compared to November 14, while the SCFI index fell 4.0%. [4][40] 2. Inflation: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down 2.1 CPI: The Decline in Pork Prices Slows Down - The decline in pork prices slowed down. On November 26, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.9 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from November 19. [4][46] - The agricultural product price index rose moderately. On November 26, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.6% compared to November 18. By variety, fruits (+ 2.8%) > vegetables (+ 1.4%) > mutton (+ 1.3%) > pork (- 0.3%) > eggs (- 0.5%) > chicken (- 0.7%) > beef (- 1.0%). [4][53] 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Declined Weakly - Oil prices declined weakly. On November 25, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 63.2 and 58.0 dollars/barrel respectively, down 0.6% and 4.6% from November 18. [4][56] - Copper and aluminum prices rose. On November 25, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum rose 1.5% and 1.0% respectively compared to November 18. [4][61] - The decline of the domestic commodity index narrowed month - on - month. On November 25, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.6% compared to November 18, and the CRB index fell 0.7%. [4][61] - Most industrial product prices fell month - on - month in November. The prices of steam coal and wire rod rose month - on - month, while other industrial product prices fell. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices converged, except for cement and glass. [63]
“数”看期货:近一周卖方策略一致观点-20251125
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-25 09:37
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts experienced declines last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures showing the largest drop of -5.80%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest decline of -2.72% [3][11] - Average trading volumes for the current, next, and quarterly contracts increased across all contracts, with the SSE 50 showing the largest increase of 18.96% and the CSI 500 the smallest at 13.60% [3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts as of last Friday were -4.13%, -10.17%, -12.27%, and -1.89% for IF, IC, IM, and IH respectively, indicating a deepening of the basis for IF and IH while IC and IM saw a narrowing [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - As of last Friday, the cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts compared to the next contracts were at the 96.70%, 90.20%, 89.30%, and 89.10% percentiles for IF, IC, IM, and IH respectively, indicating a historical distribution skewed to the right [4][12] - Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract based on the closing prices, as the required basis rates for both long and short arbitrage strategies do not meet the necessary thresholds [4][12] Group 3: Dividend Forecasts and Market Expectations - The estimated impacts on index points for the next year from the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are 77.00, 82.49, 68.09, and 64.38 respectively [4][12] - Following the end of the main dividend distribution period, the influence of dividends on the four major index futures contracts is minimal, with a notable increase in market risk aversion reflected in the declines of all four contracts [4][12] Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - A consensus among seven brokerages indicates that the A-share market will continue to experience fluctuations in the short term, but there is potential for upward movement in the medium term [5][36] - The AI industry chain, upstream resource sectors, and high-dividend assets are viewed positively, benefiting from industry trends, improved supply-demand dynamics, and policy support [5][36]
资金跟踪系列之二十一:杠杆资金继续净卖出,机构ETF明显回流
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-24 11:27
Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries have both declined, indicating a drop in inflation expectations [1][13][19]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with volatility rising for most major indices. Over half of the sectors still maintain trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][25]. - Excluding the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index, the volatility of other major indices has increased, with the volatility of the electric new energy and electronics sectors remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31]. Group 3: Institutional Research - The sectors with the highest research activity include electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, while the research activity in oil and petrochemicals, real estate, and non-bank financials has continued to rise [3][43]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has increased across the board [4][50]. - Specific sectors such as financial real estate, machinery, military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel have also seen upward adjustments in their 2025/2026 net profit forecasts [4][50]. - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices for 2025/2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the ChiNext index and SSE 50 have been adjusted differently [4][50]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to show significant net selling of A-shares. The ratio of total buy and sell amounts in sectors like electric new energy, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals has increased, while it has decreased in electronics, communications, and home appliances [4][5]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has significantly decreased, reaching the lowest point since late July 2025. The net selling has been concentrated in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and non-ferrous metals, while media, military industry, and real estate have seen net buying [5][6]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, while ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, primarily driven by institutional ETFs. Active equity funds have mainly increased their positions in non-ferrous metals, steel, and financial sectors, while reducing positions in TMT, military, and machinery sectors [6][8].
量化观市:当前微盘股的风控指标有什么变化?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-24 11:02
- The macro timing model recommends an equity allocation of 25% for November, with signal strength of 0% for economic growth and 50% for monetary liquidity. The model's year-to-date return is 13.55%, compared to Wind All A's return of 25.61%[4][41][42] - The rotation indicator suggests investing in micro-cap stocks as their relative net value to the Moutai Index is 2.05, above the 243-day moving average of 1.74. Additionally, the 20-day closing price slope for micro-cap stocks is 0.28%, higher than the Moutai Index's -0.18%[17][18][25] - Eight major stock selection factors were tracked, with reversal (27.26%), technical (23.94%), and reversal (23.86%) factors performing well, while market capitalization (-6.86%), consensus expectations (-5.31%), and value (0.25%) factors showed weaker performance[47][48][49] - Quantitative convertible bond selection factors were constructed, focusing on the relationship between convertible bonds and their underlying stocks. Factors include parity, bottom price premium rate, and financial quality of the underlying stocks. Positive IC mean values were observed for convertible bond valuation, financial quality, and value factors[56][57][58]
名创优品(09896):公司点评:国内同店加速改善,海外增长质量提升
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-24 06:34
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 5.797 billion RMB, representing a 28% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted net profit of 767 million RMB, up 11.7% year-over-year [2]. - The domestic and overseas segments showed strong growth, with domestic revenue from Miniso at 2.909 billion RMB (+19.3%), overseas Miniso at 2.312 billion RMB (+27.7%), and TOPTOY at 575 million RMB (+111.4%) [3]. - The company is actively expanding its store network, reaching a total of 4,407 stores in China, with significant growth in first, second, and third-tier cities [3]. - The overseas segment has also seen a boost, with North America exceeding same-store growth expectations and a total of 3,424 overseas stores [3]. - TOPTOY's revenue growth is attributed to rapid store expansion and increased sales of proprietary IP products, with a total of 307 stores as of Q3 [4]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 2.964 billion RMB, 3.419 billion RMB, and 4.208 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15, 13, and 11 times, respectively [5]. - Revenue growth rates are expected to be 25.12%, 23.03%, and 21.77% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [10]. - The adjusted net profit growth rates are projected at 8.96%, 15.35%, and 23.07% for the same years [10].