2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司披露 24 年年报及 25 年一季报。1）24 年 实现营收 52.2 亿元，同比+5.3%；实现归母净利 13.4 亿元，同比 +5.7%。2）25Q1 实现营收 9.6 亿元，同比+2.7%；实现归母净利 1.9 亿元，同比+2.1%。业绩符合市场预期。 分产品看：1）24 年高档/中档分别实现营收 47.6/2.6 亿元，同比 +2%/+29%，其中销量同比+3%/+36%，吨价同比-1%/-5%，毛利率同 比+0.8pct/-2.4pct。2）25Q1 高档/中档分别实现营收 8.5/0.5 亿元，同比+7%/-34%。公司目前对产品战略再梳理，目标构建水 井坊+第一坊的双品牌体系，在水井坊品牌内部实行双子星策略、 打造与八号相衬映的第二大单品。 分渠道看：1）24 年新渠道/批发代理分别实现营收 5.3/45.0 亿元， 同比+10%/+2%，其中销量同比+23%/+4%，吨价同比-11%/-2%，毛 利率同比-1.1pct/+0.7pct。2）25Q1 新渠道/批发代理分别实现营 收 2.9/6.1 亿元，同比+184%/-20%。传新渠道大幅增长、占比提 升至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.54 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and a net profit of 3.41 billion RMB, up 8.8% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 5.10 billion RMB, reflecting a 9.2% increase, with a net profit of 1.64 billion RMB, up 7.3% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5% to 12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth, focusing on maintaining a balance between profit growth and operational quality [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 74.9 billion RMB from Special A+ products and 33.5 billion RMB from Special A products, with year-on-year growth of 15% and 17% respectively. Sales volume increased by 27% and 26%, while ton prices decreased by 10% and 8%, leading to a decline in gross margins [3]. - For Q1 2025, revenue from Special A+ and Special A products was 31.7 billion RMB and 16.5 billion RMB, showing year-on-year growth of 7% and 17% respectively [3]. Regional Performance - In 2024, the company generated 105.5 billion RMB in revenue from domestic markets and 9.3 billion RMB from outside, with year-on-year growth of 13% and 27% respectively. Key regions like Nanjing and Huai'an showed steady growth [3]. - For Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 46.4 billion RMB, up 8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside was 4.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 19% increase [3]. Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 29.6%, with gross margin down by 3.6 percentage points [4]. - The company reported a contract liability balance of 540 million RMB at the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 430 million RMB year-on-year [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a 12% and 17% reduction in net profit for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with expected revenue growth of 8.3% in 2025 and 8.5% in 2026 [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.90 RMB, 3.17 RMB, and 3.57 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.0, 14.6, and 13.0 [5].

业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司披露 24 年年报及 25 年一季报。1）24 年 实现营收 360.1 亿元，同比+12.8%；实现归母净利 122.4 亿元， 同比+17.3%。2）25Q1 实现营收 165.2 亿元，同比+7.7%；实现归 母净利 66.5 亿元，同比+6.2%。业绩超市场预期。 经营分析 从营收结构来看：1）产品端，24 年中高价位酒/其他酒分别实现 营收 265.3/93.4 亿元，同比+14%/+9%；其中，销量分别+13%/+5%， 吨价分别+1%/+4%，毛利率分别+0.4pct/+1.5pct。24Q4 中高价位 酒/其他酒分别实现营收 39.2/7.0 亿元，同比+15%/-59%。25Q1 披露口径调整，汾酒/其他酒类分别实现营收 162.1/2.7 亿元，同 比+8%/-15%。25 年预计腰部产品持续发力，青花 26 导入做增量， 青花 20 稳健增长，玻汾控量区域调结构。 2）区域端，24 年省内/省外分别实现营收 135.0/223.7 亿元，同 比+12%/+14%；其中，销量分别-1%/+11%，吨价分别+13%/+2%，毛 利率分别+1.1p ...

6003008 业绩简评 公司于 4 月 29 日公布 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报，2024 全年营 收 209.57 亿元，同降 2.65%，归母净利润 21.59 亿元，同降 26.88%。 2025Q1 营收 61.87 亿元，同增 0.16%，归母净利润 9.35 亿元，同 增 5.46%。公司一季报业绩超预期，2024 年度累计现金分红总额 19.69 亿元，分红率超 91%。 经营分析 FCC 与京东奥莱等新业态发展势头良好。其他品牌增速亮眼，24 全 年/25Q1 营收分别为 26.68/7.43 亿元，同增 32.38%/100.22%。公 司于 24 年取得斯搏兹控股权，2024 年 4 月到 12 月，斯搏兹实现 营收 9.94 亿元，净利润 6705 万元，截至 24 年底公司授权代理的 阿迪达斯门店数量达 433 家。24 年 9 月首家京东奥莱开业，凭借 高性价比优势吸引消费者，截至 2025 年 4 月门店数量已达 12 家。 盈利水平边际恢复。24 全年/25Q1 毛利率为 44.52%/46.62%，保持 平稳，直营店及线上收入占比增加对冲部分关店影响。25Q1 销售 ...

业绩简评 盈利预测、估值与评级 合并后国泰海通在财富管理、投行、资管、机构等条线业务竞争 力将实现显著提升，同时更大的资产负债表有助于客需、做市等 机构业务规模增长，助推公司加快打造国际一流投资银行。我们 预计公司2025-2027年实现归母净利201亿元/185亿元/219亿元， 同比+54%/-8%/+18%，给予 2025 年 0.9 倍 PB，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 4 月 29 日，国泰海通发布 2025 年一季报。25Q1 公司实现营业总 收入 118 亿元，yoy+47%；实现归母净利润 122 亿元，yoy+392%； 扣非后归母净利润 33 亿元，yoy+61%。合并后资产规模实现跨越 式提升，总资产较上年末提升 62%至 1.69 万亿元，净资产较上年 末提升 88%至 0.32 万亿元，加权平均 ROE 为 6.46%，同比+4.91pct， 扣非后加权平均 ROE 为 1.69%，同比+0.43pct。 公司吸收合并海通证券已于 2025 年 3 月 14 日完成，归母净利润 大幅增长的主要原因为吸收合并产生负商誉带来营业外收入增 加；公司归母扣非净利润增长的主要原因为经纪、投资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 51.44 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.85 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The revenue breakdown shows that Moutai liquor and series liquor achieved revenues of 43.56 billion yuan and 7.02 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [3]. - The company is actively optimizing its dealer assessment and building a standardized assessment system, aiming to stabilize market price expectations and channel order [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 9.3%, 8.2%, and 8.0% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 9.8%, 8.6%, and 8.1% respectively [5]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 94.686 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 75.38 yuan [10]. Financial Metrics - The report indicates a gross profit margin of 52.2% for Q1 2025, with a slight decrease in gross margin by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio is projected at 75%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.7% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at 0.9 times the price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 [4]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in Q1 2025, achieving total revenue of 11.8 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.2 billion yuan, up 392% year-over-year [2]. - The substantial increase in net profit is primarily attributed to the absorption of Haitong Securities, which generated additional non-operating income due to negative goodwill [2]. - The company's performance is expected to benefit from a low base effect from the previous year and an improved market environment [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the brokerage business net income rose by 77% to 2.7 billion yuan, driven by a 71% increase in average daily trading volume in the market [2][3]. - Investment banking revenue increased by 10% to 700 million yuan, although IPO and refinancing activities saw declines of 13% and 75%, respectively [3]. - Asset management revenue grew by 27% to 1.2 billion yuan, with significant growth in public fund sizes for various funds [3]. - Proprietary trading income surged by 67% to 4 billion yuan, supported by a 39% increase in proprietary asset scale [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 20.1 billion yuan, 18.5 billion yuan, and 21.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 54%, -8%, and 18% [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 36.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 56.8 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.43% [8]. Market Position - The merger with Haitong Securities is anticipated to enhance the company's competitiveness across wealth management, investment banking, asset management, and institutional business lines, positioning it as a leading international investment bank [4].

业绩简评 公司于 4 月 29 日公布 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报，2024 全年营 收 209.57 亿元，同降 2.65%，归母净利润 21.59 亿元，同降 26.88%。 2025Q1 营收 61.87 亿元，同增 0.16%，归母净利润 9.35 亿元，同 增 5.46%。公司一季报业绩超预期，2024 年度累计现金分红总额 19.69 亿元，分红率超 91%。 经营分析 主业经营向好，线上、海外渠道增速亮眼。24 全年公司主业经营 整体平稳，海澜之家主品牌/海澜团购营收分别为152.70/22.24亿 元，同降 7.22%/2.51%，25Q1 海澜之家主品牌/海澜团购营收为 46.42/6.46 亿元，同比-9.52%/+17.58%，主业方面受消费环境影 响，整体经营情况平稳，25Q1 直营渠道实现营收 15.92 亿元，同 比增长 13.15%，2025Q1 末直营渠道为 1510 家，24 全年/25Q1 新 开 216/42 家。公司构建全域流量营销体系，24 年线上营收 44.19 亿元，同增 35.63%，线上渠道增长亮眼。公司积极寻求增量，加 码品牌"出海"，深耕马来西亚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 2.8 billion, 3.2 billion, and 4.0 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 35, 30, and 25 times [4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 9.39 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, with a net profit of 2.51 billion RMB, up 0.40% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2.42 billion RMB, reflecting a 2.5% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 618 million RMB, up 2.66% year-on-year [2]. - The recovery in the excavator market, along with the expansion into non-excavator markets, has driven stable revenue growth. The domestic engineering machinery industry showed signs of recovery in 2024, with excavator sales increasing by 3.13% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has seen a significant increase in market share for hydraulic pump and valve products, and its diversification strategy is yielding results, with non-engineering machinery products continuing to grow. International sales also increased by 7.61% year-on-year [2]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 42.83%, up 1 percentage point year-on-year, attributed to cost reduction and product mix optimization. The net margin was approximately 26.76%, down 1.1 percentage points due to increased sales and management expenses [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion RMB and a net profit of 2.51 billion RMB, with Q4 2024 revenue at 2.45 billion RMB and net profit at 717 million RMB [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.42 billion RMB and net profit was 618 million RMB, with a significant increase in non-recurring net profit [2]. Operational Analysis - The excavator market is recovering, with a total of 201,100 excavators sold in 2024, marking an end to three consecutive years of decline. Domestic sales reached 100,500 units, up 11.7% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s revenue growth is supported by increased market share in hydraulic components and successful international market expansion [2][3]. Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.83%, while the net margin was approximately 26.76%. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 39.4% and the net margin was 25.55% [2]. - The company’s profitability is stable, with a notable increase in non-recurring profit growth compared to apparent profit growth [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 332 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 130 million yuan, down 30% year-on-year [2]. - The domestic market is facing short-term pressure due to changes in the market environment, leading to adjustments in product pricing and promotional strategies, while the overseas market is expanding rapidly with a sales revenue growth of over 93% year-on-year [3]. - The company has set ambitious growth targets in its employee stock ownership plan, aiming for a net profit of no less than 600 million yuan in 2025, reflecting confidence in future operations [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 332 million yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, down 30% year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The domestic market is under pressure, but the company maintains a leading market share in domestic active artery intervention products and is expanding its market coverage for peripheral vascular intervention products. The overseas market has seen a significant increase in sales, with new registrations in three countries and over 100 total overseas product registrations [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 606 million yuan, 794 million yuan, and 965 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 31%, and 22% [5].