Group 1: ETF Rotation Strategy Tracking - The ETF rotation strategy, constructed using GBDT+NN machine learning factors, has shown excellent performance in out-of-sample testing, with an IC value of 20.91% and a long position excess return of 0.61% last week [2][12][13] - The strategy's annualized excess return is 11.91%, with a maximum drawdown of 17.31% and an information ratio of 0.68, indicating strong recent performance [2][18][16] - The strategy has recorded an excess return of 0.88% last week, 1.44% for the month, and 0.15% year-to-date, reflecting its recent success [2][18] Group 2: High-Frequency Factor Overview - Various high-frequency factors have demonstrated strong performance, with the price range factor achieving a long position excess return of 1.01% last week and 5.84% year-to-date [3][22] - The volume-price divergence factor has shown a long position excess return of 10.13% this year, while the regret avoidance factor has underperformed with a return of -0.30% [3][22] - The overall performance of high-frequency factors has been commendable, with the price range factor and volume-price divergence factor leading in returns [3][22] Group 3: High-Frequency Factor Performance Tracking - The price range factor measures the activity level of stocks within different price ranges, indicating investor expectations for future price movements, and has shown stable performance this year [4][25] - The volume-price divergence factor assesses the correlation between stock price and trading volume, with lower correlation suggesting higher future price increases, although its performance has been inconsistent in recent years [4][25] - The regret avoidance factor reflects investor behavior, showing stable excess returns, indicating that regret avoidance sentiment significantly impacts expected stock returns [4][25] Group 4: Combined Strategies Performance - The high-frequency "gold" combination strategy has an annualized excess return of 10.68% and a maximum drawdown of 6.04%, with recent excess returns of 0.14% last week and 5.98% year-to-date [5][54] - The high-frequency and fundamental resonance combination strategy has shown an annualized excess return of 14.98% and a maximum drawdown of 4.52%, with recent excess returns of 0.28% last week and 4.99% year-to-date [5][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 5.14 billion, 5.64 billion, and 6.22 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 4.4%, 9.7%, and 10.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 549 million, 653 million, and 735 million RMB for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.4%, 19.0%, and 12.6% respectively [3][8] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1, the company reported revenue of 883 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.64%. This decline is attributed to ongoing pressure from real estate completions, inventory clearance ahead of national standard replacements, and a high base from the previous year [9] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 4.97 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 8.02%. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 659 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 15.67% [8][10] Financial Metrics - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.745 RMB, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.59 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.30% in 2025 to 9.88% in 2027 [8] Market Analysis - The report indicates that the domestic civil and commercial alarm and evacuation business generated 5.4 billion RMB in revenue, down 9.54% year-on-year. However, it is anticipated that this segment will stabilize and recover in Q2 [9] - The overseas business revenue increased by 20.46% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery [9] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential growth opportunities in residential renovations, smart fire equipment upgrades, and the integration of remote monitoring and safety systems [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 654 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132 million RMB, down 6.59% year-on-year. However, the decline in revenue and profit has narrowed compared to Q4 2024, where revenue decreased by 16.82% and net profit by 44.42% [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from national policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, particularly in the furniture machinery sector, which may lead to a recovery in demand and performance [3]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 is reported at 30.93%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.09 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.30 percentage points, indicating improved profitability despite weak industry demand [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 654 million RMB, down 5.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 132 million RMB, down 6.59% year-on-year. The gross margin was 30.93%, reflecting a minor improvement [2]. Operational Analysis - The decline in revenue and profit has slowed compared to the previous quarter, with government policies expected to stimulate demand in the furniture machinery sector, potentially leading to a recovery [3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, with a gross margin of 36.70% from international operations, significantly higher than the domestic margin of 29.89% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.008 billion RMB, 3.450 billion RMB, and 3.973 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 608 million RMB, 720 million RMB, and 841 million RMB. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 12, 10, and 8 times [5].

25 年 1-2 月行业数据向好，后续季度报表有望好转。根据机床工 具工业协会数据，25 年 1-2 月金属切削机床行业营收同比增长 12.1%，金属加工机床新签订单同比增长 26.2%，在手订单同比增 长 15.2%，行业数据有所好转。根据新华社信息，在 4 月 18 日举 行的国务院常务会议上提出"要锚定经济社会发展目标，加大逆 周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优 结构提质量，做强国内大循环。"在经济刺激政策推动下行业景气 度有望继续回暖。考虑公司收入确认有一定滞后性，后续季度报 表有望好转。 四期产能逐步投放，关注新品的未来成长前景。公司四期产能建 设持续推进，设计产能 7 亿，预计 25 年上半年投产。伴随产能扩 张，公司将有更多新品投放市场，包括适用于人形机器人减速器、 丝杠加工的卧式车床系列产品等，未来有较好成长前景。 盈利预测、估值与评级 预计公司 25 至 27 年分别实现归母净利润 3.7/4.27/4.83 亿元， 对应当前 PE18X/15X/13X，考虑公司后续有望受益行业景气度复 苏，新品成长前景较好,维持"增持"评级。 业绩摘要 公司 2025 年 4 月 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its overseas expansion prospects and active layout in the robotics sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of 1.793 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.06%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 246 million RMB, up 30.76% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 226 million RMB, growing by 37.35% year-on-year [2]. - The significant increase in gross margin to 32.79% in Q1 2025, up 2.73 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 14.01%, up 2.15 percentage points year-on-year, indicates a notable improvement in profitability [3]. - The company is actively developing AI applications in garment manufacturing, with successful prototypes of high-end AI sewing machines and humanoid robots, positioning itself advantageously in the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.793 billion RMB, a 10.06% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 246 million RMB, reflecting a 30.76% increase, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 226 million RMB, up 37.35% year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The gross margin improved to 32.79%, a rise of 2.73 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin reached 14.01%, an increase of 2.15 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement in profitability is attributed to product structure optimization and increased overseas market presence, with export gross margins at 37.27%, up 3.88 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Robotics Business Outlook - The company is focusing on the integration of AI and robotics in garment manufacturing, with successful prototypes of high-end AI sewing machines and humanoid robots. This strategic move is expected to enhance product value and address industry challenges, thereby improving operational efficiency for clients [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 964 million RMB, 1.139 billion RMB, and 1.343 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16X, 13X, and 11X [5].

另外海外方面，克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长 Beth Hammack,在 4 月 24 日发言时表明如果有明确经济走弱方面的证据， 美联储最早可能在 6 月采取降息的行动。受此消息的推动，海外市场定价降息预期的程度提升，10 年期美债利率有所 回落。若短期贸易冲突舆情不继续加剧，我们预期海外资金风险偏好会有所回升。所以对于未来一周，在国内外政策 端和情绪面的支持下，我们战术性仓位推荐切换至人工智能和电子等板块。 本周央行通过 7 天逆回购投放了 8820 亿元，到期 8080 亿元，整体通过公开市场操作净投放 740 亿元。短端 1 周 SHIBOR 和 DR007，分别报 1.638%和 1.6587%，较上周分别下降 1.6 BP 和 5.29 BP。1 个月 SHIBOR 和 3 个月 SHIBOR 分别报 1.747%和 1.75%，较上周分别下降 1.6 BP 和 1.1 BP。 结合经济面和流动性来看，对于未来一周，我们建议核心仓位维持在大盘价值，而战术性仓位推荐切换至人工智能和 电子等板块。从中期来看，根据我们构建的宏观择时策略给出的信号，4 月份权益推荐仓位为 25%。拆分来看，模型 对 4 月份 ...

电子板块：Q1 业绩陆续发布，关注上半年业绩增长确定性方向。受到 Ai 需求拉货持续旺盛、消费电子国补及汽车销 量增长的带动，电子板块一季度业绩淡季不淡，多个细分板块公司业绩超预期，如 AI-PCB、算力芯片、SOC 芯片、苹 果产业链、CIS 芯片、家电芯片等。AI-PCB 方向重点受益的胜宏科技、沪电股份一季度业绩大幅增长，其中胜宏科技 指引二季度业绩环比一季度增长不低于 30%。SOC 芯片重点公司瑞芯微一季度利润同比增长 209%，恒玄科技一季度净 利润同比增长同比增长 590%，还有其他相关公司也表现亮眼。苹果链龙头立讯精密一季度营收同比增长 17.9%， 净 利润同比增长 23.1%，并指引上半年净利润同比增长 20-25%，苹果链公司蓝特光学、东山精密、蓝思科技等一季度业 绩也实现了快速增长。CIS 芯片重点公司思特威一季度业绩同比增长 1264%。我们研判这些方向二季度业绩高增长有 望持续，建议继续重点关注。台积电在 2025 年北美技术研讨会上透露，公司有望在今年下半年开始大规模生产 N2（2nm 级）芯片，这是首个依赖环栅（GAA）纳米片晶体管的生产技术，与 N3E 相比，N2 性能提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 1.782 billion RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.62% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 83 million RMB, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 155.07% and a year-on-year increase of 4.95% [2][3] - The overall product prices have increased, with average prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide, tungsten, and molybdenum rising by 3.13%, 0.55%, and decreasing by 5.02% respectively in Q1 2025. The company achieved a gross profit of 296 million RMB and a gross margin of 16.61%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.96% and 0.22 percentage points [3] - The company has made progress in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with operating expenses decreasing by 26.49% to 197 million RMB, and the expense ratio down by 4.53 percentage points to 11.05% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.782 billion RMB, net profit of 83 million RMB, and a non-recurring net profit of 78 million RMB, indicating significant growth in profitability [2] - The company expects revenues of 8.2 billion RMB, 8.9 billion RMB, and 9.6 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 325 million RMB, 369 million RMB, and 437 million RMB [5] Business Growth - The non-crystalline business showed strong growth in 2024, with new contracts amounting to 1.17 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33%. Revenue reached 974 million RMB, with a net profit of 51.35 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.63% and 60.79% respectively [4] - The company is the first in China to have the capability to produce fusion tungsten-copper filters, with a complete technology chain from raw materials to component delivery, receiving high recognition from international clients [4]

经历关税的恐慌性暴跌后，美股正面临技术性反弹与长期基本面压力的博弈。即便一些技术指标显示超跌，但三个核 心因素仍压制美股反转的可能性： 第一，关税政策冲击企业盈利。特朗普关税冲击不断加剧美国经济衰退概率，美股盈利预期或进一步下修。Mag7 中依 赖海外市场的科技公司（如苹果、特斯拉、英伟达）利润率承压，亚马逊受北美消费景气度拖累，谷歌和 Meta 则面 临广告需求萎缩风险，仅微软相对稳健。Mag7 若因衰退缩减资本支出，也可能延缓 AI 商业化进程。 第二，估值与资金面风险未充分释放。Mag7 主导了近年美股牛市，当前市盈率已回落至近三年低位。然而，标普 500 风险溢价（ERP）仍显示市场对衰退的定价不足，乐观情绪尚未完全消退。此外，特朗普对外政策正恶化美元信用，或 导致海外美元资产配置需求长期下行。 第三，特朗普与美联储的政策导向均加剧市场不确定性。特朗普有意通过短期衰退换取长期经济结构优化，默许股市 调整以缓解财富分化矛盾，美联储则在关税风险不确定下不急于行动。 综合来看，美股短期反弹以情绪驱动为主，但在关税冲击盈利、高估值消化压力及政策滞后效应下，中期或仍具备调 整可能。 风险提示 1）特朗普对外政策 ...