Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - This week, the simulated portfolio's returns turned negative, with the credit - style portfolio's retracement relatively controllable. Among the interest - rate style portfolios, the short - end sinking of urban investment bonds and the sinking strategy of certificates of deposit (CDs) had relatively high weekly return readings, both around - 0.41%. Among the credit - style portfolios, the short - end sinking of urban investment bonds and the sinking strategy of CDs had smaller retracements, with return readings of - 0.16% and - 0.16% respectively [2][15][16]. - Since July, the CD strategy has a higher odds. The average weekly return of the credit - style CD heavy - position portfolio dropped to - 0.17%, a decrease of about 24bp from last week. It is also one of the few strategies with positive cumulative returns in the past three weeks. The corresponding interest - rate style portfolio underperformed the defensive strategy again after two weeks [2][19]. - In terms of return sources, the coupon of the credit - style urban investment bond heavy - position strategy is approaching the annual low and can hardly withstand recent fluctuations. The coupon contributions of the credit - style portfolio this week generally fell within the range of - 25% to - 5%, and capital gains significantly dragged down the comprehensive return [3][27]. - In the past four weeks, except for the short - end sinking of urban investment bonds, the remaining mainstream strategies generally lacked excess returns. From the perspective of strategy terms, short - term strategies significantly outperformed. Short - term CD strategies outperformed the benchmark, and the excess return of urban investment sinking reached the highest since late June [4][31][33]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Portfolio Strategy Return Tracking 1.1 Portfolio Weekly Return Overview - As of August 15, this year, the cumulative returns of the interest - rate style and credit - style portfolios have significantly lagged behind the same period in the past two years. Among the main credit - style portfolios, the cumulative comprehensive returns of the long - term industrial portfolio, the short - end sinking of urban investment bonds, and the duration portfolio led, reaching 1.48%, 1.39%, and 1.22% respectively. The cumulative returns of the credit - style portfolios all exceeded the corresponding interest - rate style portfolios, while the cumulative returns of the interest - rate style portfolios basically fell back to within 1% [10]. - The average weekly return of the credit - style CD heavy - position portfolio dropped to - 0.17%, a decrease of about 24bp from last week. The weekly return of the urban investment bond heavy - position portfolio decreased by 38.6bp to - 0.27% compared with the previous week. The weekly return of the secondary bond heavy - position portfolio decreased by more than 40bp, but its absolute return performance was slightly stronger than that of the interest - rate style portfolio. The average return of the long - term bond heavy - position strategy dropped to - 0.55%, a decrease of about 64bp compared with the previous week [2][19]. 1.2 Portfolio Weekly Return Sources - The coupons of the main strategy portfolios continued to decline. The coupons of the short - end sinking and dumbbell - shaped portfolios of urban investment bonds were around an annualized 1.92% and 1.97% respectively, less than 5bp away from the annual low. The coupon of the secondary bond duration portfolio was still 14bp away from the low point, and the coupon volatility remained high [3][27]. 2. Credit Strategy Excess Return Tracking - In the past four weeks, the cumulative excess returns of the short - end sinking of urban investment bonds, the bullet - shaped portfolio of commercial financial bonds, and the sinking strategy portfolio of secondary bonds reached 16.2bp, 0.9bp, and 0.6bp respectively, while the cumulative readings of the remaining strategy portfolios dropped to the negative range. This week's weak performance widened the gap between the cumulative returns of the heavy - position strategy of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds and the urban investment bond heavy - position strategy, with the cumulative excess return dropping to below - 22bp [4][31]. - From the perspective of strategy terms, short - term strategies significantly outperformed. Short - term CD strategies outperformed the benchmark, and the excess return of urban investment sinking reached the highest since late June. In the medium - and long - term, all strategies showed negative excess returns, except that the excess return of the short - end sinking of urban investment bonds reached 9.7bp. The negative deviations of Tier 2 capital bonds and the bullet - shaped portfolio of commercial financial bonds from the benchmark were within 2bp, also having a certain defensive property [4][33]. Appendix: Simulated Portfolio Allocation Method - The simulated portfolio has some limitations, including the distortion of the portfolio allocation method and errors in the return calculation method. The actual product's bond allocation in terms of grade and term distribution is more complex and may change strategies according to market conditions. The fixed bond ratio in the simulated portfolio may be distorted, and there are some assumptions and simplifications in the calculation method of coupon and capital gains [5][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the bond market's micro - trading thermometer dropped significantly by 10 percentage points to 50%. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 30%, and the proportion of indicators in the cold range increased to 40%. The average value of the comparison ratio quantile dropped by 19 percentage points [2][14][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This period's micro - trading thermometer reading dropped significantly - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - trading Thermometer" dropped 10 percentage points to 50%. TL/T long - short ratio, fund duration, fund - rural commercial bank buying volume, commodity comparison ratio, and consumer goods comparison ratio quantiles all dropped significantly. Only the turnover rates of 30/10Y treasury bonds, the overall market turnover rate, institutional leverage, allocation disk strength, and policy spread quantiles increased slightly. Currently, indicators with high congestion include the turnover rate of 30/10Y treasury bonds and the trading volume ratio of long - term treasury bonds [2][14] 3.2 The number of indicators in the over - heated range dropped to 30% - Among 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 6 (30%), the number in the neutral range remained 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range increased to 8 (40%). The TL/T long - short ratio dropped from the over - heated range to the cold range, fund duration, monetary tightness expectation, and listed company wealth management buying volume dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range, fund - rural commercial bank buying volume and commodity comparison ratio dropped from the neutral range to the cold range, and allocation disk strength rose from the neutral range to the over - heated range [3][19] 3.3 TL/T long - short ratio quantile dropped significantly - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 50%, in the neutral range remained 17%, and in the cold range increased to 33%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile dropped 42 percentage points from the over - heated range to the cold range [5][20] 3.4 Allocation disk strength increased slightly - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 38%, in the neutral range increased to 38%, and in the cold range increased to 25%. The fund duration quantile dropped 14 percentage points to 67% from the over - heated range to the neutral range. Monetary tightness expectation and listed company wealth management buying volume quantiles also dropped slightly from the over - heated range to the neutral range. The fund - rural commercial bank buying volume quantile dropped 65 percentage points to 2% from the neutral range to the cold range. The only rising indicator in institutional behavior was the allocation disk strength quantile, which increased 2 percentage points from the neutral range to the over - heated range [6][25] 3.5 Policy spread continued to narrow slightly - The yield of 3 - year treasury bonds dropped slightly. The policy spread narrowed from 2bp to 1bp, and the corresponding quantile increased 4 percentage points to 47%, still in the neutral range. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread widened by 5bp and 1bp to 53bp and 2bp respectively, and the agricultural development - state - owned development spread dropped 1bp to 4bp. The average of the three spreads widened from 18bp to 20bp, and its quantile dropped 4 percentage points to 42%, still in the neutral range [7][29] 3.6 Commodity comparison ratio quantile dropped significantly - The proportion of comparison ratio indicators in the cold range increased to 100%. All indicator quantiles dropped. The commodity and consumer goods comparison ratio quantiles dropped 47 and 18 percentage points to 1% and 0% respectively, with the former dropping from the neutral range to the cold range. The stock - bond and real - estate comparison ratio quantiles also dropped slightly by 7 and 4 percentage points, both in the cold range [8][32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is currently dominated by risk appetite, leading to a steepening adjustment in yields. This is primarily influenced by the performance of risk assets such as equities and commodities, which have shown a trend of upward movement [3][8][16] - The report highlights four specific scenarios that contribute to the current dominance of risk appetite in the bond market: 1) A trend in risk assets like equities and commodities; 2) A lack of clear direction from policy statements; 3) Interest rates being at historical lows, reducing attractiveness; 4) External market influences affecting sentiment [3][16][21] - The report suggests that if the influence of these factors diminishes, the market will eventually revert to being driven by fundamentals and liquidity conditions. Key indicators to watch include the operational space of monetary policy in the second half of the year and whether social financing (社融) shows signs of a turning point [3][16] Group 2 - The report notes that while there is an increasing expectation of "absence of total easing" in the short term, the core tone of monetary policy remains one of "moderate easing" and "maintaining ample liquidity," indicating that policy space has not been closed off [5][20] - It emphasizes that the urgency for total easing in the third quarter has decreased, with a shift in focus towards structural policies and stabilizing prices. However, the possibility of total policy re-engagement in the fourth quarter remains, especially if the fundamentals come under pressure [5][20] - The report also points out that the current market's expectations for monetary easing are relatively low, suggesting that the likelihood of a significant market adjustment similar to earlier in the year is reduced [5][20][21] Group 3 - The report indicates that the short-term market is influenced by insufficient release of risk appetite and institutional sentiment, leading to weaker performance. However, it cautions against overemphasizing concerns about an upward turning point in interest rates [6][33] - It highlights that the growth rate of social financing is likely to peak in the fourth quarter, and price increases may be a result of financing expansion rather than a sign of a new cycle [6][33] - The report concludes that while the market's expectations for monetary easing are low, the actual probability of easing remains significant, suggesting that interest rates may form a mid-term top after the current pullback [6][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on overseas Chinese assets, particularly in the context of the ongoing earnings season and the revaluation of these assets [3][11]. Core Views - The enthusiasm for the revaluation of overseas Chinese assets continues, with the Hong Kong stock market showing a sustained profit effect, driving up risk appetite for these assets. Many companies have reported earnings that exceeded expectations, and this trend is expected to continue in the coming weeks. The overflow of dollar liquidity and rising expectations for interest rate cuts are clearly beneficial for overseas Chinese assets [3][17]. - The report expresses a continued positive outlook on blockchain and virtual asset-related sectors, noting a clear upward trend in these areas. Despite a recent cooling in sentiment in the Greater China region, the underlying industry trends remain strong, particularly for BTC/ETH and asset trading platforms [3][17]. Industry Situation Tracking 1. Education - The Chinese education index rose by 0.76% during the period from August 11 to August 15, underperforming compared to major indices. Notable performers included Dongfang Zhenxuan, which rose by 39.61%, and NetEase Youdao, which increased by 14.46% [12][23]. 2. Luxury Goods - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index increased by 1.92%, while the MSCI Europe Luxury Goods and Apparel Index rose by 0.32%. Key luxury stocks such as Samsonite and Prada saw increases of 6.43% and 2.62%, respectively [23][27]. 3. Coffee and Tea Beverages - The Hang Seng Non-Essential Consumer Index showed a cumulative increase of 1.08%. Key stocks in this sector included Dashi Holdings (+4.92%) and Luckin Coffee (+1.08%) [28][30]. 4. E-commerce and Internet - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rose by 1.52%, with notable stock performances from Vipshop (+10.56%) and Tencent Holdings (+5.53%) [32][36]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng Media Index increased by 1.6%, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music showing significant gains of 15.32% and 4.95%, respectively [38][40]. 6. Virtual Assets and Internet Brokers - As of August 15, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $404.37 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices at $117,340 and $4,431, reflecting increases of 0.6% and 10.4%, respectively [43][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant price appreciation in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.36 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with a gross profit growth of 4.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.6% to 110 million RMB [2]. - The revenue structure is shifting towards productization and project-based services, with high-margin fintech solutions generating 710 million RMB, up 15.9%, and AI and big data products achieving 60 million RMB, a remarkable growth of 73.5%. Conversely, low-margin digital operations and services saw a decline of 21.1% to 330 million RMB [3]. - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guofu Quantum to establish a joint venture focused on RWA technology platform development, targeting applications in Web3.0, AI, and cross-border payments [3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, establishing relationships with Chinese clients in Hong Kong and collaborating with clients in Southeast Asia, while optimizing its business delivery model in Hong Kong [3]. Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.92 billion RMB, 5.32 billion RMB, and 5.83 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 6.2%, 8.1%, and 9.5% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 330 million RMB, 378 million RMB, and 441 million RMB, with growth rates of 6.8%, 13.6%, and 16.5% respectively [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative large model companies such as iFlytek, and AI hardware is expected to become a new carrier for application implementation, with recommendations to pay attention to Hikvision, Rainbow Soft Technology, and Hesai [3] Core Viewpoints - The AI industry chain, intelligent driving, domestic substitution, and overseas expansion are expected to have relatively better prosperity, with profit margins benefiting from cost savings driven by AI empowerment [5][13] - The report anticipates a significant increase in AI application deployment in the second half of the year compared to the first half, with a focus on hardware-software integration, C-end software, B-end enterprise services, and G-end large model deployments [5][13] - The report identifies high-prosperity sectors for 2025, including AI computing power and lidar, while sectors like industrial software and medical IT are expected to face pressure [14][11] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the release of the end-to-end dual-system full-body intelligent VLA model by Starry Sky Map, which features a dual-system structure for high-level reasoning and low-level action modules [5][13] - NVIDIA has released a series of AI technology achievements and tools, including the Cosmos Transfer-2 world model and the Cosmos Reason model, which are expected to support advancements in physical AI and robotics [5][13] Market Performance - From August 11 to August 15, 2025, the computer industry index (Shenwan) rose by 5.3%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.01 percentage points [15] - The report notes that the average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased by 246.6% year-on-year during this period [21] Sector Analysis - The report categorizes the prosperity of various sectors, indicating that AI computing power and lidar maintain high prosperity, while sectors like education IT and enterprise services are at an inflection point for growth [11][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of software outsourcing, financial IT, quantum computing, and data elements as stable growth areas, while sectors like industrial software and medical IT are under pressure [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI-PCB and core computing hardware industry, as well as the Apple supply chain and AI-driven sectors [4][32]. Core Insights - The demand for AI-PCB is significantly increasing, driven by the strong performance of companies like NVIDIA and the rapid development of ASIC chips by major tech firms [1][4]. - The report highlights a price increase in copper-clad laminates due to high raw material costs, with several manufacturers announcing price hikes [1][32]. - The overall PCB industry is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with expectations for continued growth in the third quarter [7][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The AI-PCB sector is witnessing robust demand, with major companies like NVIDIA ramping up production of AI servers and switches, leading to a shift towards M8 and potentially M9 materials [1][4]. - The report predicts that by 2026, the number of ASIC chips from companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta will exceed 7 million units, further driving demand for AI-PCB [1][4]. 2. Subsector Analysis 2.1 Consumer Electronics - The launch of innovative products, such as the影翎 Antigravity A1 drone, is expected to enhance user experience and differentiate from competitors [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the folding screen opportunities in the Apple supply chain, particularly with the anticipated launch of new products [6]. 2.2 PCB - The PCB industry is maintaining a high prosperity level, with significant growth driven by automotive and industrial control sectors, alongside AI demand [7]. 2.3 Components - The report notes the collaboration between Bloom Energy and Oracle to provide power solutions for AI data centers, highlighting the growth potential for SOFC technology [19]. - The demand for passive components is expected to rise due to increased usage in AI applications, with a notable increase in MLCC usage in mobile devices [19]. 2.4 Semiconductor Design - The storage segment is projected to see upward trends, with DRAM prices expected to rise by 10% to 15% in Q3 2025, driven by increased demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [21][23]. 2.5 Semiconductor Equipment and Materials - The report discusses the ongoing trend of de-globalization in the semiconductor industry, with a focus on domestic equipment and materials as companies adapt to new export controls [24][31]. 3. Key Companies - Companies such as 建滔积层板 are expected to benefit from the rising demand for AI-PCB and the ongoing price increases in raw materials [32][39]. - 北方华创 is positioned to gain market share due to the domestic semiconductor equipment replacement trend, with a strong focus on advanced manufacturing processes [34]. - 兆易创新 is highlighted for its growth potential driven by domestic substitution and the increasing demand for storage solutions in AI applications [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the PCB upstream industry chain, particularly focusing on copper foil, electronic cloth, and equipment [1][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the price trends of AI copper foil and the recent price increases announced by several CCL companies, indicating a favorable market environment for AI copper foil due to low domestic replacement rates and a healthy competitive landscape [1][11]. - The report highlights the robust growth potential in the African building materials sector, particularly for local manufacturing companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is expected to benefit from increased local production and supply chain protection [12][13]. - Traditional building materials are showing signs of recovery, with improved land acquisition sentiment and a potential stabilization in new construction starts, suggesting a positive trend for the real estate sector [13]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Continued recommendation for PCB upstream industry chain, focusing on AI copper foil, electronic cloth, and equipment due to favorable market conditions and limited domestic competition [1][11]. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices are under pressure, with a national average of 340 RMB/t, down 42 RMB year-on-year, while glass prices are declining, indicating a challenging environment for these sectors [14][15]. - The report suggests that the demand for AI materials, particularly high-end copper foil and special fiberglass, remains strong, with price trends serving as key indicators of market health [15][16]. Market Performance - The building materials index showed a positive performance of 4.07% during the week, with specific segments like fiberglass and cement also reflecting gains, indicating a recovering market sentiment [18][29]. Building Materials Price Changes - National cement prices increased by 0.2% week-on-week, with regional variations in price adjustments, reflecting a gradual recovery in demand as weather conditions improve [29][30]. - The floating glass market continues to face challenges, with prices declining and inventory pressures persisting, although some signs of demand recovery are noted [39][40]. Fiberglass Market - The domestic fiberglass market remains stable, with prices holding steady, while electronic cloth prices are also stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario [61][62]. Carbon Fiber Market - The carbon fiber market is stable, with prices averaging 83.75 RMB/kg, reflecting steady production rates and cautious demand from downstream industries [67][68].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate sector, recommending to buy on dips due to low valuations and potential policy benefits [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector increased by 3.9% this week, ranking 6th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector rose by 1.6%, ranking 5th [3]. - The average premium rate for land transactions has rebounded to 12%, with a significant decrease in transaction volume compared to previous weeks [3]. - The report highlights a seasonal low in commodity housing sales, with a 2% decrease week-on-week and a 13% decrease year-on-year [4]. - The report indicates that the real estate data is stabilizing at the bottom, but further efforts are needed for recovery [6]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the real estate sector in A-shares and Hong Kong has shown positive performance, with specific stocks experiencing significant gains [3][22]. - The property service and management index in Hong Kong increased by 2.2%, outperforming other indices [28]. Land Market - In the week of August 9-15, 2025, the total area of residential land sold across 300 cities was 450 million square meters, reflecting a 42% decrease week-on-week and a 49% decrease year-on-year [33]. - The cumulative area of residential land sold from the beginning of 2025 to date is 22,895 million square meters, showing a 4% year-on-year decline [33]. Housing Sales - The report indicates that 264 million square meters of commodity housing were sold in 47 cities during the week, with a 2% decrease from the previous week and a 13% decrease year-on-year [4][38]. - The sales volume in first-tier cities increased by 7% week-on-week, while second-tier cities saw a 20% decrease [4]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China announced a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing, aimed at supporting local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties [5][14]. - The report emphasizes the need for policy optimization to accelerate the acquisition of existing housing stock to aid in inventory reduction [5][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on developers with strong operations and potential benefits from policy changes, particularly those active in core first and second-tier cities [7]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Jianfa International Group, Greentown China, and China Overseas Development [7].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding in the express delivery segment and Hecun Co., Ltd. in the smart logistics space [2][3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 15% year-on-year increase in business volume in July, but the average revenue per ticket decreased by 5.3%. The report anticipates a potential increase in ticket prices due to seasonal demand and price adjustments in production areas [2]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a stabilization in hazardous chemical water transport prices, with a recommendation for Hecun Co., Ltd. as it focuses on smart logistics and benefits from improving demand [3]. - The aviation sector is responding to regulatory changes aimed at curbing unhealthy competition, with a noted increase in flight operations and a recommendation for major airlines like Air China and China Southern Airlines due to expected profit elasticity from supply-demand optimization [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 0.5% from August 9 to August 15, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 2.4%, indicating underperformance in the transportation sector [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The report indicates that the shipping sector is under pressure, with the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1193.34 points, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 40.9% year-on-year. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1460.19 points, down 2.0% week-on-week and down 52.9% year-on-year [20]. - Domestic shipping is showing a slight improvement, with the Domestic Container Freight Index (PDCI) at 1068 points, up 1.7% week-on-week and up 7.9% year-on-year [28]. Aviation and Airports - The report notes a slight increase in domestic flight operations, with an average of 17,225 flights per day, up 2.76% year-on-year. The report also highlights the release of a self-regulatory charter by the China Air Transport Association to combat unhealthy competition [4][49]. - The domestic air passenger volume in June 2025 was 54.01 million, a 3% increase year-on-year, while international passenger volume increased by 17% [52]. Rail and Road - The report indicates a stable upward trend in road transport, with a 2.44% year-on-year increase in truck traffic on highways. The railway sector also shows positive signs, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in freight volume for the Daqin Railway in July [73][78].