1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall trend of global inflation remains unchanged. The recent sharp decline in the market does not alter this long - term narrative. The core overseas driver is Trump's policies, and the nomination of Kevin Warsh aims to cut interest rates, lower credit card rates, and boost the real estate market. In China, domestic policies are also pushing up inflation [2][3]. - In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against market volatility, especially the potential reversal of extreme emotions. However, from a long - term perspective, there are still investment opportunities in different commodity sectors [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Areas Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Warsh's well - known policy combination is "interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction". After the nomination, the market priced in "a review of the Fed's independence", causing silver to fall by more than 30%, gold to drop by 11% (the largest single - day decline since March 1980), and Bitcoin, precious metals, and US stocks to face pressure in the short term. Trump hopes that his nominee can stimulate the economy to grow at a rate of 15%, indicating a pursuit of significant interest rate cuts and a higher tolerance for inflation [2]. Inflation and Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference on December 11 emphasized boosting consumption, rectifying "involution - style" competition, and promoting economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. On January 15, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points. On January 20, the Ministry of Finance issued five important policy documents to support multiple loan areas. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and carry out regular treasury bond transactions [3]. Global Economic and Geopolitical News - US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, with the fastest growth rate since 2022. The US ADP employment increase in January was 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with the US imposing an 18% "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods, and India promising to purchase $500 billion of US products over five years. Trump confirmed that India will stop importing Russian oil. In Japan, the ruling coalition won a majority in the House of Representatives election, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio plans to discuss food tax cuts [3]. Commodity Market - In the non - ferrous metals sector, long - term supply constraints remain unresolved, with high certainty. Precious metals have regained allocation value after the recent adjustment. In the energy sector, OPEC+ plans to keep oil production stable in March, and the US will "sell on consignment" Venezuelan oil. Trump hopes to lower the oil price to $50 per barrel. In the chemical sector, PTA and PVC are relatively resistant to decline. The agricultural products sector needs to pay attention to weather and short - term pig disease conditions, and the black metals sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair potential [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [5]. Important News - The central bank's 2025 Q4 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report shows that the central bank suspended buying treasury bonds in the open market in January 2025 and resumed purchases in October, with net purchases of 20 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan, and 50 billion yuan in October, November, and December respectively. In the future, it will carry out regular treasury bond transactions. Trump's nominee for the Fed Chairman is expected to stimulate 15% economic growth. Japan will hold a special parliamentary session on February 18 for the prime minister nomination election. The UK Prime Minister's ruling crisis has temporarily eased. Iran's air force is on the highest - level combat readiness, and the US has advised US merchant ships to stay away from Iranian waters [7].

糖价内强外弱，郑棉延续震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14655元/吨，较前一日变动+75元/吨，幅度+0.51%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15713元/吨，较前一日变动+24元/吨，现货基差CF05+1058，较前一日变动-51；3128B棉全国均价15988元/吨， 较前一日变动+21元/吨，现货基差CF05+1333，较前一日变动-54。 近期市场资讯，据棉花信息网生产调查，2026年全国棉花意向种植面积同比减少82.7万亩，减幅1.7%。根据近三年 各省平均单产情况，推算全国棉花总产同比减少45.2万吨，减幅5.8%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收涨。国际方面，25/26年度全球供需格局整体仍偏宽松，美棉出口签约进度仍偏慢，终端需求 受关税政策以及地缘政治局势恶化影响，整体表现疲软，短期ICE美棉预计仍将维持低位震荡。中长期看，美棉已 处于低估值区间，进一步下跌的空间预计不大，但向上驱动暂不明确，后续需持续关注新季供应方面的题材。国 内方面，25/26年度国内棉花延续大幅增产，不过商业库存增幅远不及产量增幅。受减面积预期支撑，贸易商近期 持货意愿较强，现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure from Brazilian soybeans will suppress the prices of US soybeans and domestic soybean meal. With sufficient domestic supply, the soybean meal price will maintain a volatile trend, and future focus should be on US soybean purchases and the Brazilian harvest [3] - Due to the low import volume of corn in the previous season, the channel inventory has been significantly depleted. Although there was a bumper harvest of corn in Northeast China this season, affected by rain disasters in North China and the uncertainty of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply this season is not expected to be abundant. The corn price is predicted to fluctuate, and future attention should be paid to the spot purchase and sales situation, import situation, and grain auction situation [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2734 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2244 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the spot price of soybean meal was 3130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M05 + 396, down 15 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was M05 + 286, down 5 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was M05 + 266, down 5 from the previous day. In Fujian, the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was RM05 + 156, down 6 from the previous day [1] 3.1.2 Recent Market Information - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 16% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, up 6 percentage points from the previous week, slightly higher than the 15% progress of the same period last year. In the first week of February, Brazil exported 118.4 million tons of soybeans, with a daily average export volume of 23.7 million tons, a 26% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of the entire month of February last year [2] - As of the week ending February 5, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 113.6 million tons, with a market expectation of 80 - 165 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 131.8 million tons [2] 3.1.3 Market Analysis - The current weather in Brazil is favorable, and local institutions expect the new - season soybean production to reach a record 181 million tons. The supply pressure of Brazilian soybeans will suppress the prices of US soybeans and domestic soybean meal. Currently, feed enterprises have basically completed their stocking, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased again, and the soybean inventory remains at a high level. The domestic supply is still sufficient, and the soybean meal price will maintain a volatile trend [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2286 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.93% from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2547 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was C03 + 54, down 21 from the previous day; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS03 + 83, down 9 from the previous day [4] 3.2.2 Recent Market Information - In the first week of February, Brazil exported 55 million tons of corn, with a daily average export volume of 11 million tons, a 55% increase compared to the daily average export volume of the entire month of February last year [4] - As of the week ending February 5, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 130.8 million tons, with a market expectation of 90 - 120 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 114.7 million tons [4] 3.2.3 Market Analysis - The import volume of corn in the previous season was low, and the channel inventory has been significantly depleted. Although there was a bumper harvest of corn in Northeast China this season, affected by rain disasters in North China and the uncertainty of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply this season is not expected to be abundant. The corn price is predicted to fluctuate, and future attention should be paid to the spot purchase and sales situation, import situation, and grain auction situation [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on February 10, 2026, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report provides multiple figures related to plate liquidity, such as the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][5][8] 2. Stock Index Plate - On February 10, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 494.08 billion yuan, a - 28.99% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1596.591 billion yuan, a - 2.69% change; the trading - holding ratio was 30.48%. Multiple figures show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other information of each variety in the stock index plate [1][5][15] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 394.548 billion yuan, a - 13.26% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 930.491 billion yuan, a - 0.22% change; the trading - holding ratio was 40.94%. Figures display the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, etc. of each treasury bond variety [1][19][24] 4. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the basic metals plate was 454.304 billion yuan, a - 28.82% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 643.815 billion yuan, a - 0.84% change; the trading - holding ratio was 71.95%. The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 712.245 billion yuan, a - 33.96% change; the holding amount was 507.264 billion yuan, a + 1.44% change; the trading - holding ratio was 181.24%. Figures show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, etc. of each variety in the metal plate [1][27][33] 5. Energy and Chemicals Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemicals plate was 451.117 billion yuan, a - 8.43% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 481.033 billion yuan, a - 0.24% change; the trading - holding ratio was 82.65%. Figures present the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, etc. of the main varieties in the energy and chemicals plate [1][36][37] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 236.648 billion yuan, a + 5.17% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 607.150 billion yuan, a - 0.21% change; the trading - holding ratio was 35.12%. Figures display the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, etc. of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate [1][46][52] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 133.708 billion yuan, a - 17.65% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 320.108 billion yuan, a + 1.40% change; the trading - holding ratio was 40.19%. Figures show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, etc. of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][54][55]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various index options on February 9, 2026, including trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), to reflect the market situation of index options [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On February 9, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 793,300 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,024,800 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,902,000 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 46,200 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,421,400 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 29,600 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 119,400 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 266,900 contracts [1] - The table shows the trading volume details of call, put, and total contracts for each index option [20] Option PCR - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various index options and their corresponding changes are as follows: for example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was 0.64, with a change of - 0.30, and the position PCR was 0.77, with a change of + 0.04 [2] - The table provides a comprehensive list of the trading volume PCR, its change, position PCR, and its change for various index options [36] Option VIX - The VIX of various index options and their corresponding changes are presented. For instance, the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 17.05%, with a change of - 0.47% [3] - The table lists the VIX and its change for each index option [51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the US non-farm payrolls data. The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, reflecting structural changes in the labor market. The market expects about 70,000 new jobs in the January non-farm payrolls report [1]. - Due to the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1100 yuan/gram and 1200 yuan/gram. Silver also shows a price recovery, and is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2604 contract fluctuating between 20,000 yuan/kg and 21,000 yuan/kg [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, but this does not mean a weakening of economic growth momentum, but rather reflects structural changes in the labor market. The January non-farm payrolls report will be released on Wednesday, and the market expects about 70,000 new jobs. In addition, there was a "black swan" event in British politics, with several officials resigning and calls for the prime minister to step down [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 9, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1104.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1125.94 yuan/gram, a change of 3.29% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1122.92 yuan/gram and closed at 1127.00 yuan/gram, a 0.09% increase from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On February 9, 2026, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,500.00 yuan/kg and closed at 20,873.00 yuan/kg, a change of 11.03% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 1,015,255 lots, and the open interest was 222,366 lots. In the night session, it opened at 20,500 yuan/kg and closed at 20,934 yuan/kg, a 0.29% increase from the afternoon closing price [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 9, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.202%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.723%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 2507 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions changed by -3023 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 447,637 lots, a change of -23.27% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -2303 lots and the short positions changed by -3455 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,971,263 lots, a change of -20.79% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The holdings of gold ETFs remained unchanged at 1,076.23 tons compared with the previous trading day. The holdings of silver ETFs decreased by 56 tons to 16,191 tons compared with the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On February 9, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -22.59 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -655.69 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 53.94, a change of 6.22% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 64.99, a change of 5.27% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (February 9, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 47,556 kg, a change of -2.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 327,768 kg, a change of -0.53% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7].

石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-10 终端需求逐步收尾，局部现货下跌 市场分析 1、2月9日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3334元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌33元/吨，跌幅 0.98%；持仓67415手，环比下跌15761手，成交122832手，环比下跌39625手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3600元/吨；山东，3200—3240元/吨；华南，3290—3350元/吨； 华东，3250—3280元/吨。 昨日国内沥青现货价格整体持稳，局部（山东、华南）出现下跌。近期油价波动受到伊朗局势影响较大，目前形 势仍不明朗。上周伊朗与美国谈判缺乏实质性结果，本周可能举行新一轮核谈判。中东地缘风险并未完全消退， 包括沥青在内的能化板块商品可能受到消息面的反复扰动，需要保持谨慎。如果抛开地缘与宏观层面的扰动，沥 青市场目前处于供需两弱状态，节前终端需求逐步收尾，交投氛围较淡，短期矛盾相对有限。原料切换带来的成 本与收率变化可能会在3月份后逐步明朗，已经有炼厂采购浮仓与保税罐中的伊朗原油来替代马瑞原油，考虑到伊 朗油的折价，成本端的增长在一定程度上可控。但如果中东局势恶化，则 ...

原油日报 | 2026-02-10 印度俄油采购不会归零 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨81美分，收于每桶64.36美元，涨幅为1.27%；4月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨99美分，收于每桶69.04美元，涨幅为1.45%。SC原油主力合约收涨2.13%，报471元/桶。 （来源：Bloomberg） 2、 2月10日，墨西哥停止向古巴运送所有石油的决定，给这个燃料匮乏的国家带来了沉重打击，该岛国录得了十 年来首个无石油进口的月份。墨西哥总统辛鲍姆周一证实，鉴于特朗普威胁要对任何向古巴出售或提供石油的国 家征收关税，石油出货已"暂停"。由于古巴不公开相关信息，目前很难估算机动车燃料供应还能维持多久。在2024 年的一次罕见表态中，一名政府官员曾表示，这个拥有约1000万人口的岛国每天的汽油需求量约为8200桶，但在 制裁和封锁下，这一需求仅能勉强得到满足。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 2月9日，委内瑞拉国家石油公司已撤销其在主要产油区奥里诺科带大部分油田及合资项目的减产指令，推动 该国总产量接近每日100万桶。熟悉运营情况的消息人士称，上周末多个项目增产后， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-10 宏观情绪有所修复，镍价震荡走高 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-09日沪镍主力合约2603开于133020元/吨，收于134520元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化1.45%，当日成交量为 417105（-137339）手，持仓量为83976（-1500）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约探底回升，美元指数走弱，伦镍隔夜涨 1.03% 带动内盘氛围回暖；国内资金向有色 金属板块流入，为沪镍提供流动性支撑，前期超跌后空头止损推动价格反弹。此外，镍矿价格持稳，镍铁成本支 撑存在，部分高成本冶炼厂减产预期抬头，供应边际收缩预期对价格形成一定支撑。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场整体表现平静，价格持稳运行。随着春节假期临近，市场参与者逐步 减少，交投氛围趋于清淡，买卖双方均以观望为主，价格在高位维持平稳。国内工厂因原料成本高企，即期生产 压力较大，对当前价位的镍矿采购意愿低迷。考虑到长假因素，多数工厂以消耗现有库存、执行长协为主，暂停 了新的现货采购计划，市场实际成交稀少。印尼市场同样进入节前平稳期，未有新的重大成交或政策消息传出。 市场继续执行2月上半月的定 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is average, and steel prices are fluctuating weakly. The supply - demand contradictions in the glass and soda ash markets remain unresolved, leading to wide - range fluctuations. For double - silicon, the pre - holiday replenishment is nearing the end, causing significant declines in double - silicon futures [1][3] - Glass is expected to show an oscillatory trend, while soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly. Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to show an oscillatory trend [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main glass contract showed wide - range fluctuations yesterday, with the open interest steadily increasing as the market rebounded and high market activity. Spot prices fluctuated with the market, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract showed a weak - oscillatory trend yesterday, with obvious multi - short game. The short - position open interest increased, spot prices stabilized, and buyers mainly replenished stocks based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Glass production decreased slightly year - on - year due to cold - repair and production cuts, alleviating supply pressure and providing some support for prices. However, the downstream is still in the traditional off - season, and the inventory - replenishment sentiment is low, limiting the upside space for prices. The absolute glass price is currently low, and the tolerance for inventory during the Spring Festival is high. The fundamental contradictions have not been effectively resolved [1] - Soda Ash: The current production of soda ash is high, and with the advancement of new projects, the supply - side pressure is increasing. Downstream consumption shows a seasonal decline as cold - repair increases. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers remains at a high level, and the de - stocking process is slow, resulting in significant supply - demand contradictions [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Weakly oscillatory [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: As the Chinese New Year approaches, raw - material replenishment is nearing the end, and the silicon manganese futures dropped significantly yesterday. The silicon manganese market is oscillating, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. The mainstream steel procurement has not yet started. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures followed the overall downward trend of the black - metal market yesterday. The silicon iron market is operating weakly, with strong cautious wait - and - see sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, and there is an expectation of an increase in hot - metal production in the future, leading to a marginal improvement in silicon manganese demand. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern remains relatively loose. The recent tariff policy in South Africa may increase the cost of manganese ore, so attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable, and enterprises are actively reducing production loads. Considering the resumption of production by steel mills, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of silicon iron suppresses the price increase. Continuous attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of silicon iron and the electricity - price policy in the production areas [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Silicon Iron: Oscillatory [4]