石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-11 策略 单边：中性，关注伊朗局势发展，节前轻仓运行 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 现货大体持稳，供需两弱格局延续 市场分析 1、2月10日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3343元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌0元/吨，跌幅0%； 持仓57736手，环比下跌9679手，成交82908手，环比下跌39924手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3600元/吨；山东，3180—3240元/吨；华南，3290—3350元/吨； 昨日山东地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，川渝地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。临近 春节，沥青现货市场供需双弱，整体交投氛围较为平淡。就期货盘面而言，由于中东地缘风险并未完全消退，包 括沥青在内的能化板块商品可能受到消息面的反复扰动，需要保持谨慎。目前国内炼厂已经开始准备3月份之后的 原料切换，已经有炼厂采购浮仓与保税罐中的伊朗原油来替代马瑞原油，还有炼厂在竞标加拿大冷湖原油。整体 来看，原料端替代并无绝对瓶 ...

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-11 液氯价格进一步下降，烧碱现货小幅调涨 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 烧碱库存与开工：液碱工厂库存47.14万吨（-4.89）；片碱工厂库存2.76万吨（+0.05）；烧碱开工率87.80%（+0.10%）。 烧碱下游开工：氧化铝开工率84.06%（-0.71%）；印染华东开工率27.91%（-22.74%）；粘胶短纤开工率88.43% （+0.00%）。 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4971元/吨（-21）；华东基差-231元/吨（-19）;华南基差-141元/吨（-39）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4740元/吨（-40）；华南电石法报价4830元/吨（-60）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-659元/吨（+86）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利103元/吨（+82）；PVC出口利润11.1美元/吨（+2.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存28.8万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存59.3万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率80.37%（+0.39%）； PVC乙烯法开工率7 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-02-11 标猪供应整体充足，备货呈季节性特征 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2605合约11470元/吨，较前交易日变动-95.00元/吨，幅度-0.82%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.21元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.26元/公斤，现货基差 LH05+740，较前交易日变动-165；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 12.19元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.24元/公斤，现货基差LH05+720，较前交易日变动-145；四川 地区外三元生猪价格10.79元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH05+-680，较前交易日变动+15。 据农业农村部监测，2月10日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.50，比昨天下降0.01个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为132.33，与昨天持平。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.26元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；牛肉66.13元/公 斤，比昨天上升0.1%；羊肉64.30元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；鸡蛋8.26元/公斤，比昨天下降1.5%；白条鸡17.14元/ 公斤，比昨天下降0.2%。 市场分析 ...

甲醇日报 | 2026-02-11 内地方面。煤头维持高开工，但下游待发订单表现尚可，内地工厂库存进一步回落，仍未兑现年前的季节性库存 回建。传统下游延续季节性淡季走低，甲醛进入年前快速降负阶段，醋酸维持亏损低负荷状态，MTBE开工表现尚 可。 策略 继续关注伊朗局势进展 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤505元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润358元/吨（-30）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1843元/吨（-30），内蒙北线基差202元/吨（-40），内蒙南线1880元/吨（+80）；山东临沂2189元/吨（-16）， 鲁南基差148元/吨（-26）；河南2035元/吨（+15），河南基差-6元/吨（+5）；河北2055元/吨（+15），河北基差74元/ 吨（+5）。隆众内地工厂库存368900吨（-55820），西北工厂库存189000吨（-53100）；隆众内地工厂待发订单287051 吨（+21391），西北工厂待发订单166000吨（+2200）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2210元/吨（+0），太仓基差-31元/吨（-10），CFR中国264美元/吨（+2），华东进口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastics market is oscillating. The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiations and the resurgence of geopolitical risk premiums may support oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. The supply of PE is under pressure with high - level开工率 and more imported resources, while the demand is in the off - season. PP's supply pressure is currently acceptable, but the demand is expected to decline seasonally [3][4]. - The current supply - demand structure of PP is still weak, and the cost side fluctuates sharply. For both PE and PP, it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the inventory accumulation amplitude after the Spring Festival [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,775 yuan/ton (+54), PP main contract at 6,688 yuan/ton (+58). LL North China spot was 6,550 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot 6,700 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 225 yuan/ton (-124), LL East China basis - 75 yuan/ton (-54), PP East China basis - 8 yuan/ton (-58) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 85.9% (+0.6%), PP开工率 73.9% (-0.9%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was - 192.2 yuan/ton (-110.8), PP oil - based production profit - 452.2 yuan/ton (-110.8), PDH - based PP production profit - 462.7 yuan/ton (+22.5) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 118.1 yuan/ton (-34.0), PP import profit - 304.7 yuan/ton (+58.1), PP export profit - 62.5 US dollars/ton (-2.1) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 30.2% (-4.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 38.8% (-3.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 36.7% (-5.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 64.6% (+0.4%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The plastics market oscillates due to weakened macro - sentiment and weak fundamentals. The cost support is strengthened by rising oil prices. The supply side has pressure with more restarted devices and more imported resources. The demand side is in the off - season with declining downstream开工率. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is under pressure [3]. - **PP**: There is still short - term cost support. The supply pressure is currently acceptable with some device overhauls. The demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see, as the short - term market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [5]. - **Cross - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP price spread when it is high [5].

消息扰动后氧化铝重心回落 重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23290元/吨，较上一交易日变化-110元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-190元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价23170元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-310元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录23380元/吨，较上一交易日变化-50元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化35元/吨至-100 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-02-10日沪铝主力合约开于23550元/吨，收于23515元/吨，较上一交易日变化-70元/吨，最 高价达23660元/吨，最低价达到23410元/吨。全天交易日成交188582手，全天交易日持仓184786手。 库存方面，截止2026-02-10，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存85.7万吨，较上一期变化2.1万吨，仓单库存166516 吨，较上一交易日变化2004吨，LME铝库存486975吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-02-10SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2555元/吨，河南价格录得 ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-11 站在品种自身基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油近期市场结构偏强运行，下游船燃需求良好，亚太地区现货边际收 紧，现货贴水与月差相对坚挺，且FU期货注册仓单量减少。在委内瑞拉原油供应减少后，国内沥青炼厂开始寻找 替代原料，高硫燃料油需求存在一定增量预期。但与此同时，俄罗斯1月发货量明显回升，预计体现在本月亚太地 区的到港上，上周新加坡库存大幅回升。整体来看，在地缘局势相对可控的前提下，高硫燃料油市场不具备持续 走强的动力，尤其在高运费的环境下，估值过高会抑制下游炼厂端需求。 低硫燃料油方面，当前基本面矛盾不明显，科威特等局部地区供应存在增量，但整体压力相对有限。值得一提的 是，近期外盘汽柴油裂解价差出现回落，对低硫燃料油支撑边际减弱，3月份春检开启，部分RFCC装置将再度进 入检修，低硫燃料油供应预计将保持充裕。 策略 高硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势发展，节前轻仓运行 低硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势发展，节前轻仓运行 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 地缘溢价仍未消退，低硫油市场支撑边际转弱 期权：无 市场分析 风险 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.15%，报2845元/吨；INE低 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-02-11 3月份涨价能否成功尚不明，主力合约短期走势震荡 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹 WEEK7报价1270/2040，WEEK8 报价1210/1920，WEEK9报价 1200/1900，WEEK11报价1200/1900（其中上海-伦敦基本港WEEK11周报价涨至1320/2100）；HPL 2月上半月船期 报价1135/1835，2月下半月船期报价1135/1835，3月份船期报价1835/2935 。HPL发布3月份涨价函1900/3100 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 2月上半月价格1280/2140，2月下半月船期价格1280/2140；ONE 2月上半月船期报 价1290/2035，2月下半月船期报价1290/2035，3月上半月船期报价1620/2535；HMM上海-鹿特丹2月上半月船期报 价1233/2036，2月下半月船期1233/2036 ，3月份船期报价1783/3136.MSC发布3月份涨价函1800/3000. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The MPOB report was released, and the market for edible oils fluctuated. The overall report met market expectations [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan or 0.82% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2605 contract closed at 8,098 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan or 0.20%; the rapeseed oil 2605 contract closed at 9,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan or 0.45% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 8,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 1.11%, with a spot basis of P05 - 60 yuan, a decrease of 26 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 292 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.51%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 754 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan [1] Market News Summary - Argentina: In January, the export volume of soybean oil decreased from 562,000 tons in December to 460,000 - 480,000 tons (502,000 tons in the same period last year), and the export volume of soybean meal decreased from 2.05 million tons to 1.95 - 2 million tons (2.22 million tons in the same period last year). The soybean processing volume decreased, and it will continue to decline in February. The export volume of sunflower oil tripled to 100,000 tons compared to the same period last year, the export volume of sunflower meal increased from 105,000 tons to 150,000 - 160,000 tons, and the export volume of sunflower seeds was close to 100,000 tons. It is expected to continue to grow in February. The sunflower seed processing usually increases seasonally from February to March and will reach its peak after the new processing facilities are put into operation in April. The national sunflower seed harvest is 25% complete, and the output is expected to reach a record of 6.2 - 6.6 million tons (5.5 million tons in 2025 and 4.5 million tons in 2024) [2] - France: The French Ministry of Agriculture slightly increased the sown area forecast for winter soft wheat and rapeseed in 2026. The sown area of winter soft wheat is expected to reach 4.59 million hectares, slightly higher than the initial forecast of 4.56 million hectares in December last year. The sown area of rapeseed is forecast to increase from 1.34 million hectares estimated in December last year to 1.37 million hectares, an 8% increase compared to 2025 and 11.6% higher than the five - year average [2] - Malaysia: In January, the export volume of palm oil was 1,484,267 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.44%; the inventory was 2,815,493 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.72%; the output was 1,577,454 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.78%; the import was 32,316 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93%. From February 1 - 10, according to AmSpec, the export volume of palm oil was 399,995 tons, a 14.25% decrease compared to the same period last month; according to ITS, it was 451,340 tons, a 10.5% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is in a clear off - season pattern, with steel prices fluctuating weakly. Glass and soda ash markets also show a weakening trend due to shrinking downstream demand. The double - silicon market in the black sector is in a state of consolidation [1][3] - The glass market has an increasing expectation of production line cold - repair in the Shahe area, which provides some support to the market. The soda ash supply pressure is increasing with new projects, and the downstream consumption is seasonally declining [1] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved slightly, but the inventory pressure is still high. The fundamentals of silicon iron are controllable, and the demand is expected to improve marginally [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main glass contract fluctuated weakly yesterday, and the trading volume decreased approaching the Spring Festival. The spot price was stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract continued to show a weakening trend, and the market sentiment was cautious. In the traditional off - season, the spot market mainly had transactions based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: There is a strong expectation of production line cold - repair in the Shahe area, which supports the market. However, the fundamental contradictions have not been effectively resolved, and attention should be paid to cold - repair progress, terminal demand recovery, and coal price impact on costs [1] - Soda Ash: The current production of soda ash is high, and the supply pressure is increasing with new projects. Downstream consumption is seasonally declining, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is high, and the de - stocking process is slow. Attention should be paid to new project situations [1] Strategy - Glass: Expected to fluctuate [2] - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate weakly [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese futures weakened yesterday, and the spot market was filled with a festive atmosphere. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures fluctuated downward, the market was weak, and the sentiment of cautious waiting and seeing was strong. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production area was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals have improved, and the demand is expected to increase marginally. However, the inventory pressure is still high, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. The South African tariff policy may increase the manganese ore cost, and attention should be paid to cost support and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of steel mills, the demand is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity suppresses the price increase, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation and power price policies in production areas [3] Strategy - Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to fluctuate [4]