新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 多晶硅受收储平台公司成立影响，盘面再次大幅上涨 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-09，工业硅期货价格大幅下跌，主力合约2601开于8600元/吨，最后收于8340元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-300） 元/吨，变化（-3.47）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓185271手，2025-12-09仓单总数为7528手，较前一日变化0 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅下跌。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（-100）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （-50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、 天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价回落，97硅价格持稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。有机硅各主要产品上调后，下游情绪偏观望，但 在预售单持续兑现下，企业库存压力不大，预计短期内市场平稳运行运行。 策略 现货价格小幅回落，期货盘面大幅下跌，主要受焦煤等商品大幅下跌以及西北地区减产不及预期影响。目前西南 减产后，供需 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The recent oil price has entered a volatile pattern. Although the mainstream market expects a huge inventory build - up in Q1, due to the dual - differentiation between the sanctioned oil and compliant oil markets, the market is relatively fragmented. The market doesn't think a single inventory build - up will pressure the absolute oil price, but rather requires a visible increase in compliant oil inventories (i.e., significant increases in European and American inventories), which explains the relative strength of the absolute price and the near - term spread [2] - The oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and a short position in the medium - term is recommended [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for January 2026 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 63 cents to $58.25 per barrel, a decrease of 1.07%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for February delivery fell 55 cents to $61.94 per barrel, a decrease of 0.88% [1] - For the week ending December 5 in the US, API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.779 million barrels (expected - 1.75 million barrels, previous 2.48 million barrels). Gasoline inventory increased by 6.955 million barrels (expected 2.343 million barrels, previous 3.136 million barrels). Refined oil inventory increased by 1.027 million barrels (expected 1.478 million barrels, previous 2.884 million barrels). Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 47 thousand barrels (previous - 89 thousand barrels). Heating oil inventory increased by 296 thousand barrels (previous 30 thousand barrels) [1] - US President Trump will hold a rally in Pennsylvania on local Tuesday to defend his economic achievements and ease voters' anxiety about rising costs. Republicans are preparing for a tough fight to retain control of Congress in next year's mid - term elections. The rally will focus on falling gasoline and egg prices and tax cuts passed this year [1] - In the week ending November 4, oil speculators reduced their net short positions in WTI crude oil by 19,142 contracts to 4,518 contracts [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent had a talk with the Ukrainian Prime Minister and her team. He emphasized President Trump's commitment to ensuring lasting peace in Ukraine and discussed the Treasury's sanctions on two major Russian oil giants, Lukoil and Rosneft [1] - The EIA Short - Term Energy Outlook Report: It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will be $68.91 per barrel in 2025 (previously $68.76 per barrel) and $55.08 per barrel in 2026 (previously $54.92 per barrel). The expected WTI crude oil price is $65.32 per barrel in 2025 (previously $65.15 per barrel) and $51.42 per barrel in 2026 (previously $51.26 per barrel). The expected average daily US crude oil production in December is 13.85 million barrels (11 月: 13.86 million barrels), and 13.71 million barrels in January [1] Investment Logic - The dual - differentiation between the sanctioned oil and compliant oil markets leads to market fragmentation. The market believes that only a build - up of compliant oil inventories will pressure the absolute oil price, which explains the strength of the absolute price and the near - term spread [2] Strategy - The oil price will fluctuate in the short - term, and a short position is advisable in the medium - term [3] Risks - Downside risks: Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: Tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) supply, large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]

Report Investment Rating - The strategy for both apple and red date is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the current price reflects the expectations of the storage volume and structure. Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of the differentiated storage structure, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival. The market is in a off - season, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] - For red dates, if the sales situation in the distribution areas improves, the price may rebound during the consumption peak season. However, due to the large inventory of two seasons, the upward rebound space is expected to be limited [9] Summary by Directory Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9,465 yuan/ton, a change of - 41 yuan/ton or - 0.43% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 - 1265 in Qixia and AP05 - 1065 in Luochuan both increased by 41 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The mainstream price of stored late Fuji remains stable. In some western producing areas, the price of below - average goods is slightly weak. The overall transaction is on - demand, and the shipment is slow. The arrival of goods in the sales areas increases, but the overall shipment is not fast, and the inventory pressure still exists [2][3] - The new - season late Fuji storage in the producing areas has ended, with the storage volume more than 10% lower than the same period last year. The merchants are generally optimistic. The inventory decreased last week, and the overall shipment is average [3] - The consumption is mainly on - demand due to the seasonal off - season, and the trading atmosphere is still light. The increasing supply of citrus fruits squeezes the apple sales space, and the sentiment in the sales areas is relatively pessimistic [3] Market Analysis - The apple futures price showed a volatile downward trend yesterday. The trading sentiment in the producing areas is not high, and the shipment of inventory goods is slow. The arrival of goods in the sales areas increases, but the overall shipment is not fast, and the inventory pressure still exists [3] Strategy - Be neutral. The current expectations of storage volume and structure have been reflected in the price. Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of the differentiated storage structure, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the large - scale stocking for the Christmas and New Year holidays has not started this week, and the market is still in an off - season. Caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,235 yuan/ton, a change of + 55 yuan/ton or + 0.60% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujube in Hebei was 8.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 635 decreased by 55 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - The acquisition of grey jujube in Xinjiang is nearing completion, with little remaining supply in each producing area. High - quality goods have a tail - end price increase trend. The acquisition of raw materials in the producing areas is based on quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price [6][7] - On December 8, the trading in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market was mainly of new goods. After the new - season harvest, the goods gradually returned to the factory for processing. With the clear procurement cost of merchants at the end of the acquisition in the producing areas, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the price was strong [7] - In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 7 trucks of goods arrived. The market supply was sufficient, and downstream merchants purchased on - demand. The morning trading was average [7] Market Analysis - The red date futures price rose slightly yesterday. The acquisition in each producing area is nearing completion, with little remaining supply. The raw material acquisition adheres to the principle of pricing by quality. The trading in the sales areas is mainly of new goods, and the spot price is relatively firm [8] - The acquisition of grey jujube in Xinjiang is about 90% complete, and the price in the producing areas has stopped falling and stabilized, with the cost gradually becoming clear. The price in the sales areas has also stabilized. With the increasing downstream procurement, some holders have tentatively increased their quotes slightly [8] - The inventory of 36 sample points has increased significantly, and the combined inventory of the two seasons is at the highest level in recent years. The inventory pressure is large, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated, and the market's future expectations are relatively pessimistic [8] Strategy - Be neutral. If the sales situation in the distribution areas improves, the red date price may rebound during the consumption peak season. However, due to the large inventory of two seasons, the upward rebound space is expected to be limited [9]

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-10 关注液氯价格变动 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4367元/吨（-64）；华东基差13元/吨（+54）;华南基差13元/吨（+34）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4380元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4380元/吨（-30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2905元/吨（+0）；电石利润-25元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-1019元/吨（-139）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-472元/吨（-8）；PVC出口利润-2.1美元/吨（+2.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.6万吨（+0.3）；PVC社会库存52.9万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.09%（-0.12%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.92%（+0.80%）；PVC开工率79.01%（+0.16%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.8万吨（+2.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2166元/吨（+42）；山东32%液碱基差53元/吨（-42）。 现货价格受山东下游调低接货价影响跟跌。供应端企业检修减少，开工率小幅提升，同期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the pure benzene market, there is significant short - term arrival pressure in China, leading to accelerated accumulation of port inventories. The most critical period for overseas gasoline has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 remains weak, and downstream operating rates are at a low level during the off - season. - In the styrene market, the port basis continues to be strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, and port inventories continue to decline. Downstream operating rates show differentiation, with EPS operating rate rebounding slightly, ABS operating rate decreasing due to inventory pressure, and PS operating rate continuing to rise at the end of the year [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 142 yuan/ton (+48), and the spot - M2 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 204 yuan/ton (+73 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 115 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 dollars/ton (+3 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 181.0 dollars/ton (+1.1 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 19 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different trends, with CPL operating rate dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol operating rate rising, and aniline and adipic acid operating rates fluctuating within a range [1][3]. - Styrene: East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (-13,800 tons), East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (-8,600 tons), and the operating rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - EPS: Production profit is 38 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.36% (+1.61%) [2]. - PS: Production profit is - 162 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 59.00% (+1.40%) [2]. - ABS: Production profit is - 865 yuan/ton (-69 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 68.30% (-2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 450 yuan/ton (+20), and the operating rate is 79.15% (-7.53%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 977 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate is 82.00% (+1.00%) [1]. - Aniline: Production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and the operating rate is 77.23% (+0.04%) [1]. - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1188 yuan/ton (+45), and the operating rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Go for long - short spread trading on EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 现货成交相对清淡 铅价暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-09，LME铅现货升水为-51.57美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-100元/吨至17100 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100元 /吨至17125元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17125元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-75元/吨至17125元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9900元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10250元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-09，沪铅主力合约开于17310元/吨，收于17170元/吨，较前一交易日变化-170元/吨，全天交易 日成交35748手，较前一交易日变化-2313手，全天交易日持仓40620手，手较前一交易日变化-2487手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17345元/吨，最低点达到1 ...

期货方面：2025-12-09沪锌主力合约开于23250元/吨，收于23070元/吨，较前一交易日-40元/吨，全天交易日成交 129703手，全天交易日持仓101254手，日内价格最高点达到23255元/吨，最低点达到23005元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-09，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为13.60万吨，较上期变化-0.43万吨。截止2025-12-09，LME 锌库存为58150吨，较上一交易日变化400吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 冶炼亏损持续扩大 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为166.73美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化60元/吨至23190元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水65元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日70元/吨至23100元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-25元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日60元/吨至23070元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-55元/吨。 市场分析 矿端TC持续下滑趋势不改，伴随绝对价格高位回落，冶炼厂亏损扩大。冶炼厂原料库存依旧回落，采购积极性仍 在，TC有望持续下滑，冶炼积极性明显回落，冶炼产量环比明显下滑，供给压力缓解。消费 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 盘面价格下跌氧化铝仓单成交平平 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21880元/吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-90元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21740元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-230元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21770元/吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-200元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-09日沪铝主力合约开于22210元/吨，收于--元/吨，较上一交易日变化-370元/吨，最高价 达22210元/吨，最低价达到21735元/吨。全天交易日成交255735手，全天交易日持仓195726手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.1万吨，仓单库存67863 吨，较上一交易日变化127吨，LME铝库存523300吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-09SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2790元/吨，山东价格录得2740元/吨，河南价格录得 2820元/ ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-10 缺乏明显驱动，板块整体震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13740元/吨，较前一日变动-10元/吨，幅度-0.07%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14843元/吨，较前一日变动-4元/吨，现货基差CF01+1103，较前一日变动+6；3128B棉全国均价14999元/吨， 较前一日变动-10元/吨，现货基差CF01+1259，较前一日变动+0。 近期市场资讯，海关总署最新数据显示，2025年11月，我国出口纺织品服装238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%，环比 增加7.22%; 其中纺织品出口122.76亿美元，同比增加1.03%，环比增加9.05%；服装出口115.94亿美元，同比下降 10.86%，环比增加5.36%。 2025年1-11月，我国出口纺织品服装2677.95亿美元，同比下降1.91%; 其中纺织品出口 1300.09亿美元，同比增加1.03%；服装出口1377.87亿美元，同比下降4.4%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲 软，短期I ...

油料日报 | 2025-12-10 豆一现货强势但物流受限，花生产区惜售价格偏强 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4089.00元/吨，较前日变化+4.00元/吨，幅度+0.10%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01+11，较前日变化-4，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆现货价格偏强运行，价格上涨30-80元/吨不等。因当前农户手中余粮不多， 持货待涨心态浓郁，挺价惜售，部分大型企业收购价格也呈趋涨态势，叠加中储粮收购价格托底，近期市场价格 连续走强，但现阶段实际大豆购销表现偏慢，塔粮价格以稳为主，后期大豆走势仍需关注下游消费情况。黑龙江 哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋 白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车 报价2.03元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前 一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化 ...