Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - On February 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 145,800 yuan/ton and closed at 132,780 yuan/ton, with a -10.68% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 531,724 lots, and the open interest was 329,777 lots, down from 359,912 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is 8,540 yuan/ton [1]. - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 9,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the price of 6% lithium concentrate decreased by 70 US dollars/ton. The sharp decline in lithium carbonate is due to multiple factors such as regulatory strengthening leading to capital outflows, weakening demand after pre - holiday stocking, macro - sentiment drag, and loose supply expectations [2]. - The downstream manufacturers' pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, the procurement rhythm has slowed down significantly, and the spot trading has become dull. The expected decline in both supply and demand weakens price support. The resumption of production of Brazil's Sigma lithium mine this week has alleviated the supply shortage expectation to some extent [2]. - The total spot inventory is 105,463 tons, a decrease of 2,019 tons compared to the previous period. The total weekly output of lithium carbonate is 20,744 tons, a decrease of 825 tons compared to the previous period [3]. 3. Strategy - Given the large price fluctuations of lithium carbonate and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to position risks. Short - term range trading is the main strategy. If the callback is too large, consider going long at low prices after the holiday [4]. - Unilateral: Short - term range trading; if the callback is large, consider going long at low prices. Options, inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not provided [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are oscillating weakly with inventory accumulation and weak spot sales. The double - silicon market has insufficient supply - demand contradictions and is oscillating [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market price remained stable with mediocre sales. This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 53.064 million heavy cases, a 0.95% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and production is expected to decrease. Rising coal prices have pushed up costs, and the inventory pressure on glass factories is not high, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply - demand is still loose, and the industry faces pressure without significant demand improvement. Attention should be paid to cold repairs of production lines and industrial policies [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures oscillated weakly, and the market was cautious. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. This week, the soda ash inventory was 1.5811 million tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. After some alkali plants completed maintenance, supply increased. Considering new projects and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, the production profit of soda ash enterprises needs to be suppressed. Attention should be paid to changes in float glass production lines and new soda ash projects [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon manganese futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment fluctuated with the futures, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price in the northern market was 5,590 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,720 - 5,770 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals have improved, and there is an expected increase in hot metal production, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs, and attention should be paid to cost support and inventory changes [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly, mainly for rigid demand. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5,850 - 6,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. With the resumption of steel mills, demand is expected to improve marginally. However, the overall over - capacity suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and power price policies in production areas [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-06 节前需求淡季，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-05日沪镍主力合约2603开于136810元/吨，收于134430元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.11%，当日成交量 为582524（+100958）手，持仓量为93478（-5975）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现高开低走的弱势震荡态势，日内波动加剧，核心驱动源于供应过剩与节前需求 淡季的双重压制，叠加宏观情绪偏弱，短期仍以偏弱震荡为主。春节临近，不锈钢和新能源电池产业链进入季节 性淡季，下游备货基本结束，采购活动停滞，市场需求淡静，缺乏支撑镍价上涨的动力。美元走强压制大宗商品 价格，隔夜伦镍收跌 0.37%，对沪镍形成联动影响。有色板块整体回调，市场情绪偏谨慎，进一步加剧沪镍下行 压力。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场延续分化态势。菲律宾矿山招标价格在强劲的采购需求下继续冲高， 而中国国内市场因成本严重倒挂，买方陷入全面观望，交投几近停滞，市场呈现"外热内冷"的鲜明对比。菲律宾 方面，矿山招标价格涨势未止，市场看涨情绪依然浓厚。据市场消息，北方矿山Eramen的1.4% ...

油脂日报 | 2026-02-06 节前油厂陆续停机，油脂价格稳定 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9042.00元/吨，环比变化-96元，幅度-1.05%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8104.00 元/吨，环比变化-36.00元，幅度-0.44%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9144.00元/吨，环比变化-99.00元，幅度-1.07%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9010.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.66%，现货基差P05-32.00，环比变化+36.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8390.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.36%，现货基差Y05+286.00，环比变 化+6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9890.00元/吨，环比变化-100.00元，幅度-1.00%，现货基差OI05+746.00， 环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：根据调研全样本口径油厂情况来看，有16家油厂，在2026年1月之前就陆续停产，占比13%。 计划在2月9日（腊月二十二）至2月14日（腊月二十七）之间停产的油厂最多，占59%，其次是2月1日至8日（腊月 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-06 下游维持刚需采购 铅价难有强劲表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-02-05，LME铅现货升水为-51.45美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16400 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25 元/吨至16475元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16375元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-25元/吨至16450元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至9925元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至10000元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10225元 /吨。 期货方面：2026-02-05，沪铅主力合约开于16585元/吨，收于16555元/吨，较前一交易日变化-35元/吨，全天交易日 成交44073手，较前一交易日变化-6760手，全天交易日持仓54708手，手较前一交易日变化-3568手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16640元/吨，最低点 ...

美国就业数据表现趋弱 美联储释放偏鹰信号 市场分析 地缘方面，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐率领的代表团抵达阿曼首都马斯喀特，将出席与美国代表团举行的核问题谈判。 据悉，代表团成员还包括伊朗外交部政治事务副部长拉万奇、法律与国际事务副部长加里巴巴迪以及外交部发言 人巴加埃等多名外交官。一名谈判代表团成员表示，本轮对话的重点将仅限于核问题，媒体关于其他潜在议题的 各种猜测均不属实，也无法得到确认。美联储方面，美联储理事库克表示，美联储必须在近期将通胀率拉回目标 水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前景不确定性仍处高位。经 济数据方面，美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万人，新增招聘岗位仅5300多个，均创17年来同期最差。去年12 月职位空缺数量大幅下降至654万，为2020年以来最低。上周初请失业金人数则意外大增2.2万至23.1万。 期货行情与成交量： 贵金属日报 | 2026-02-06 2026-02-05，沪金主力合约开于1131.84元/克，收于1105.76元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-3.15%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream overall start - up of polyolefins continued to decline. The polyolefin market was affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - sentiment, with the overall situation being weak. The supply - demand fundamentals of PE and PP were not substantially reversed and showed signs of weakening, with large destocking pressure. The short - term disk trends were expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - level guidance and the destocking process [2][3] - For the strategy, it was recommended to wait and see for L/PP in the single - sided trading. For the cross - variety trading, it was advisable to cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it was high [4] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - Period Structure - The L main contract closed at 6,777 yuan/ton (- 141), and the PP main contract closed at 6,676 yuan/ton (- 125). The LL North China spot was 6,650 yuan/ton (- 80), the LL East China spot was 6,850 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the PP East China spot was 6,680 yuan/ton (+ 0). The LL North China basis was - 127 yuan/ton (+ 61), the LL East China basis was 73 yuan/ton (+ 141), and the PP East China basis was 4 yuan/ton (+ 125) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 85.9% (+ 0.6%), and the PP operating rate was 73.9% (- 0.9%). The PE oil - based production profit was - 88.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), the PP oil - based production profit was - 498.5 yuan/ton (- 105.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 450.8 yuan/ton (- 88.0) [1] 3. Non - Standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - Not elaborated on specific data in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was 13.2 yuan/ton (+ 54.6), the PP import profit was - 282.1 yuan/ton (+ 4.7), and the PP export profit was - 60.1 US dollars/ton (+ 19.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 30.2% (- 4.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 38.8% (- 3.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 36.7% (- 5.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 64.6% (+ 0.4%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated on specific data in the text

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-06 氧化铝库存矛盾难以解决 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23340元/吨，较上一交易日变化-420元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-180元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化30元/吨；中原A00铝价23240元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化50元/吨至-280元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录23340元/吨，较上一交易日变化-430元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化15元/吨至-180元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-02-05日沪铝主力合约开于23800元/吨，收于23385元/吨，较上一交易日变化-525元/吨， 最高价达23905元/吨，最低价达到23300元/吨。全天交易日成交473671手，全天交易日持仓207370手。 库存方面，截止2026-02-05，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存83.6万吨，较上一期变化1.9万吨，仓单库存154332 吨，较上一交易日变化4043吨，LME铝库存492975吨，较上一交易日变化-2200吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-02-05SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2555元/吨，河南价格录得 2 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Volatile [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when it's at a low level [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Some manufacturers' price cuts have improved order collection, and agricultural demand is following up. The price is expected to remain firm before the Spring Festival. On the supply side, some gas - based and technical - renovation enterprises resumed production in January, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers are conducting Spring Festival order collection. The off - season storage procurement is in the later stage, and 10% of off - season storage supplies are expected to be released in February. The compound fertilizer operation rate increased slightly this week, at a relatively high level. The downstream fertilizer demand is approaching, and the sales are improving. There is an expected decline in operation rate before the Spring Festival. The melamine operation rate decreased due to more temporary shutdowns this week, with only rigid demand. The overall inventory in urea factories decreased slightly, while the port inventory increased slightly. Affected by the Iranian situation, international urea prices rose. India is expected to tender again. There is no new information about the domestic export quota, and follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, off - season storage release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On February 5, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1778 yuan/ton (- 9); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was quoted at 1760 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle urea price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton (+ 10); the small - particle urea price in Jiangsu was 1800 yuan/ton (+ 10); the price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 2 yuan/ton (+ 19); the basis in Henan was - 18 yuan/ton (+ 9); the basis in Jiangsu was 22 yuan/ton (+ 19) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of February 5, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 89.14% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operation Rate - On February 5, 2026, the urea production profit was 215 yuan/ton (+ 10) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - On February 5, 2026, the export profit was 943 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of February 5, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 41.79% (+ 0.45%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.95% (- 8.50%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 8.82 days (+ 2.23) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.85 million tons (- 2.64), and the port sample inventory was 16.50 million tons (+ 2.10) [1]

现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16000元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15180元/吨，较前一 日变动-120元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1950美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1890 美元/吨，较前一日变动-25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格13000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价12550元/吨，较前一日变动-250元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 化工日报 | 2026-02-06 轮胎开工率呈现季节性下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16175元/吨，较前一日变动-210元/吨；NR主力合约13135元/吨，较前一日变动-165 元/吨；BR主力合约12855元/吨，较前一日变动-460元/吨。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年12月报告预测，12月全球天胶产量料降10.8% ...