丙烯日报 | 2026-01-27 供需支撑尚可，盘面延续走高 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6320元/吨（+117），丙烯华东现货价6440元/吨（+90），丙烯华北现货价6350元/吨 （+175），丙烯华东基差120元/吨（-27），丙烯山东基差30元/吨（+58）。丙烯开工率71%（-4%），中国丙烯CFR- 日本石脑油CFR245美元/吨（+2），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR72美元/吨（+4），进口利润-402元/吨（+16），厂内库存38980 吨（-7290）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率31%（-0.84%），生产利润-250元/吨（-175）；环氧丙烷开工率73%（+1%），生产利润 -288元/吨（-4）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润751元/吨（-9）；辛醇开工率96%（+2%），生产利润856元/ 吨（+24）；丙烯酸开工率82%（-1%），生产利润178元/吨（-32）；丙烯腈开工率75%（-3%），生产利润-1175元/吨 （-6）；酚酮开工率86%（-4%），生产利润-803元/吨（+249）。 市场分析 供应端，PDH装置停车消息逐步兑现，巨正源 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats fluctuated yesterday. Despite the good soybean production, the China - Canada talks have not released the relevant result documents on rapeseed trade. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, the rising crude oil prices, and the production reduction in palm oil producing areas, the prices of oils and fats fluctuated upwards [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9092.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +182 yuan and a 幅度 of +2.04%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8226.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +132.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +1.63%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9345.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +354.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +3.94% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9060.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +180.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +2.03%, and the spot basis was P05 - 32.00, with a 环比 change of -2.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8520.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +100.00 yuan/ton and a 幅度 of +1.19%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 294.00, with a 环比 change of -32.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10180.00 yuan/ton, with a 环比 change of +360.00 yuan and a 幅度 of +3.67%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 835.00, with a 环比 change of +6.00 yuan [1] Market Information - As of January 23, 2026 (Week 4), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 74.23 tons, a 环比 decrease of 0.38 tons and a decrease 幅度 of 0.51%, and a 同比 increase of 27.38 tons and an increase 幅度 of 58.44% compared with 46.85 tons last year [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1227 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1147 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1040 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1020 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 545 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 553 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 479 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 473 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium quotes: The premium of the Gulf of Mexico (February shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged compared with the previous trading day; the premium of the US West Coast (February shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged compared with the previous trading day; the premium of Brazilian ports (February shipment) was 160 cents/bushel, an increase of 4 cents/bushel compared with the previous trading day [2] - According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 25 was 1099033 tons, a 7.97% increase compared with the export volume of 1017897 tons in the same period last month [2] - According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%, among which the production in the Malay Peninsula decreased by 14.29%, the production in Sabah decreased by 11.12%, the production in Sarawak decreased by 23.21%, and the production in Borneo decreased by 14.6% [2]

油料日报 | 2026-01-27 豆一节前偏稳，花生供需胶着 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4384.00元/吨，较前日变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.46%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+56，较前日变化-20，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：昨日东北大豆现货价格整体持稳。从市场结构来看，不同品质货源价格呈现分化，其中低端价格 略有抬升，高端价格则小幅回落，整体在多空力量相持下保持稳定。目前下游需求相对清淡，导致产区大豆走货 节奏依然偏缓。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山 宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔 粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.33元/斤；黑龙江黑河 嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮 装车报价2.30元/斤。 昨日豆一期货主力合约价格冲高回落。南方市场因东北大豆价格偏高，部分需求开始转向本地货源 ...

期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4959元/吨（+38）；华东基差-259元/吨（+22）;华南基差-209元/吨（+52）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4700元/吨（+60）；华南电石法报价4750元/吨（+90）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（-15）；电石价格2855元/吨（+0）；电石利润-23元/吨（+12）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-800元/吨（-137）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-49元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润-16.5美元/吨（-8.1）。 氯碱日报 | 2026-01-27 氯碱现货成交偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.8万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存57.6万吨（+1.5）；PVC电石法开工率80.14%（-0.52%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.04%（-2.44%）；PVC开工率77.98%（-1.10%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量88.4万吨（-4.2）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1973元/吨（+28）；山东32%液碱基差-82元/吨（-81）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价605元/吨（-17）；山东50%液 ...

尿素日报 | 2026-01-27 新单成交好转，关注消息扰动 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-26，尿素主力收盘1791元/吨（+3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1740 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1760元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：-41 元/吨（-13）；河南基差：-51元/吨（-3）；江苏基差：-31元/吨（-3）；尿素生产利润185元/吨（-10），出口利润969 元/吨（+99）。 供应端：截至2026-01-26，企业产能利用率86.39%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为94.60 万吨（-4.01），港口样本 库存量为13.40 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2026-01-26，复合肥产能利用率42.96%（+2.88%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.65%（+1.47%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.88日（-0.18）。 尿素现货降价企业成交较好。供应端1月部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端上周因雨雪天气影响， 采购有所减弱，近期好转，农需冬腊肥和返青肥持续采购中。厂家后续陆续进行春节收单 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-01-27 全球避险情绪升温，贵金属延续涨势 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振 消费，以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。1月15日，央行 宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步 调整。并强调，今年降准降息还有一定空间，人民币汇率预计将继续双向浮动，保持弹性。1 月 20 日，财政部官 网集中发布 5 个重要政策文件，涵盖个人消费贷款、设备更新、中小微企业贷款、服务业经营主体贷款及民间投 资专项担保五大领域，以 "延长期限、扩大范围、提高标准" 为核心导向，通过财政贴息与担保支持，降低融资成 本、激发市场活力，助力扩大内需与经济高质量发展。此外，伊朗和委内瑞拉的地缘局势骤紧，在民粹主义和贸 易保护主义思潮下，全球争 ...

流动性日报 | 2026-01-27 市场流动性概况 2026-01-26，股指板块成交11938.64亿元，较上一交易日变动+28.53%；持仓金额18070.08亿元，较上一交易日变动 +1.80%；成交持仓比为65.62%。 国债板块成交2856.62亿元，较上一交易日变动-14.61%；持仓金额8570.33亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.32%；成交 持仓比为32.45%。 基本金属板块成交13099.44亿元，较上一交易日变动+35.25%；持仓金额8224.14亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.48%； 成交持仓比为149.07%。 贵金属板块成交15762.69亿元，较上一交易日变动+38.17%；持仓金额7175.83亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.60%；成 交持仓比为263.61%。 能源化工板块成交7511.93亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.91%；持仓金额5292.83亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.83%；成 交持仓比为128.20%。 农产品板块成交3214.88亿元，较上一交易日变动+34.74%；持仓金额6433.86亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.73%；成 交持仓比为45.11%。 | 一、板块 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The mid - stream is continuously differentiating, and the prices of the upstream are warming up [1] - The production industry in Beijing encourages the development of value - added services based on commercial satellite data and the integration of the industrial chain [1] - The service industry will develop service trade, open up the service market, and promote the export of various services [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - In the non - ferrous metals sector, the price of nickel has rebounded [2] - In the agricultural sector, the prices of eggs and palm oil have rebounded [2] - In the energy sector, the price of liquefied natural gas has continued to rise [2] Mid - stream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PX and urea have remained at high levels [3] - In the energy industry, the coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [3] - In the infrastructure industry, the operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [3] Downstream - In the real estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [3] - In the service industry, the number of domestic flights has continued to increase [3] Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products: On January 26, the spot price of corn was 2267.1 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.13%; the spot price of eggs was 8.3 yuan/kg with a year - on - year increase of 5.48%; the spot price of palm oil was 9000.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 3.16%; the spot price of cotton was 15997.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.7 yuan/kg with a year - on - year increase of 0.81% [38] - Non - ferrous metals: On January 26, the spot price of copper was 102426.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.27%; the spot price of zinc was 24682.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.15%; the spot price of aluminum was 24040.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.63%; the spot price of nickel was 153883.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 5.66%; the spot price of aluminum was 17031.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% [38] - Ferrous metals: On January 26, the spot price of rebar was 3214.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.55%; the spot price of iron ore was 815.6 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the spot price of wire rod was 3425.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%; the spot price of glass was 13.1 yuan/square meter with a year - on - year increase of 1.56% [38] - Non - metals: On January 26, the spot price of natural rubber was 16016.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 3.50%; the China Plastics City Price Index was 777.6 with a year - on - year increase of 0.30% [38] - Energy: On January 26, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 61.1 US dollars/barrel with a year - on - year increase of 2.92%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 65.1 US dollars/barrel with a year - on - year increase of 1.47%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3668.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 4.38%; the coal price was 806.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.37% [38] - Chemical industry: On January 26, the spot price of PTA was 5247.5 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 4.75%; the spot price of polyethylene was 6846.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%; the spot price of urea was 1745.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.27%; the spot price of soda ash was 1202.9 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.94% [38] - Real estate: On January 26, the national cement price index was 133.5 with a year - on - year decrease of 0.75%; the building materials composite index was 114.9 with a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the national concrete price index was 90.2 with a year - on - year change of 0.00% [38]

原油日报 | 2026-01-27 2、 1月25日，虽然特朗普将接管委内瑞拉石油销售描绘成美国的胜利，但当其政府希望迅速出售价值数十亿美元 的燃料时，他们求助的专家却是两家外国贸易行。维多集团和托克集团获得的运送受制裁委内瑞拉原油的特殊许 可，使它们在这一潜在利润丰厚的贸易中抢占了先机。与此同时，由于特朗普的封锁导致库存积压并迫使工业减 产，委内瑞拉方面正承受着恢复石油流动的巨大压力。接收并为数千万桶受制裁石油（包括大量存储在委内瑞拉 海岸外"影子舰队"油轮上的石油）寻找买家，是一项巨大而复杂的任务。特朗普政府之所以转向维多和托克，是 因为这两家公司被认为能够最快地转运首批原油。这些公司向美国墨西哥湾沿岸炼油厂提供了比布伦特基准价格 每桶折价约8至9美元的货源；路透社上周报道称，维多已向瓦莱罗能源和菲利普斯66以类似价格售出原油。考虑 到交易商从委内瑞拉国家石油公司购买原油的价格约为布伦特折价15美元，这预示着巨大的利润空间——在这个 行业，交易毛利通常以美分而非美元计。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 1月25日，里海石油管线财团表示，一处海上系泊设施已重新投入使用，使得这条承担哈萨克斯坦约90%原油 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Despite entering the consumption off - season, actual consumption is strong, social inventory shows no accumulation trend, and the overall situation is positive. Domestic mine supply is weak but supplemented by imported mines. The decline of imported mines continues, and it's hard for import TC to rise. Comprehensive smelting faces losses, so zinc ingot supply pressure is not obvious. Long - term consumption is promising, inventory pressure is low, and zinc price is undervalued with limited downward adjustment space [4]. 3. Summary by Category Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$32.62/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,680 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day and a premium of 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,750 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton and a premium of 25 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton and a premium of -25 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 26, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,715 yuan/ton, closed at 24,725 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 207,921 lots, and the position was 121,627 lots. The highest price was 24,880 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,635 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 26, 2026, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 116,800 tons, a change of -2,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 111,325 tons, a change of -175 tons from the previous trading day [3]