期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 2025 年全球油脂市场核心矛盾聚焦于主产国产量良好与生物柴油产业政策和贸易政策不确定性两大方面。棕榈油板块中，印尼 2025 年产量预计同比增产 10%，马来西亚全年产量也保持稳定..... 气候、地缘、生柴，迷雾中寻找新方向 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 油脂年报 2025-11-30 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 010-64405663 baixuyu@htfc.com ...

华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场展望 回顾过去十年的煤炭行情，不难发现煤炭价格波动总是围绕持续增长的消费和阶段性供给错配之间的矛盾而展开的，其中政策变化 起到了关键作用。2025 年上半年煤炭价格大幅下跌，直至反内卷政策和超产核查出台，煤炭产量受到控制，同时伴随价格回落， 进口量大幅缩减，煤炭供需矛盾有所缓解，煤炭价格才得以重新反弹...... 调节供需动态平衡，维持煤价合理区间 王海涛 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 本期分析研究员 邝志鹏 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 余彩云 从业资格号:F03096767 投资咨询号:Z0020310 从业资格号:F3054449 投资咨询号:Z0016137 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 刘国梁 从业资格号:F03108558 投资咨询号:Z0021505 邢亚文 期货研究报告 | 动力煤年报 2025-11-30 调节供需动态平衡，维持煤价合理区间 策略 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of ultra-large vessels in 2025 and 2026 is relatively small, but it will be greater in 2027 and 2028. In 2026, it is expected to deliver 1.0327 million TEU of 12,000+ TEU ships, 1.816 million TEU in 2027, 2.593 million TEU in 2028, and 1.437 million TEU in 2029. For 17,000+ TEU ships, it is expected to deliver 240,000 TEU (10 ships) in 2026, 838,000 TEU (39 ships) in 2027, 1.603 million TEU (79 ships) in 2028, and 1.215 million TEU (60 ships) in 2029 [10]. - The SCFI Shanghai - Europe price has a strong seasonal pattern. In normal years, from week 1 to about week 15, the freight rate is in a seasonal downward phase; from week 15 to about week 34, it is in a seasonal oscillating upward phase; from week 34 to about week 42, it is in a seasonal oscillating downward phase; from week 42 to week 53, it is in a seasonal oscillating upward phase. The seasonal pattern of freight rates has a strong fit with the monthly container trade volume trend in the Far East - Europe region, indicating that this variety is priced at the margin of the demand side under the condition of a certain supply [11]. - In 2026, two uncertain factors may disrupt the shipping market. First, whether the China - EU trade game will affect China - EU trade. Since 2025, the EU's trade policy towards China has tightened significantly, and as of November 27, it has implemented multiple substantial restrictive measures. Second, pay attention to the possibility of the Suez Canal resuming operation. In 2025, the weekly average capacity of most months exceeded 300,000 TEU, a new high in the same period in the past four years. If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the weekly average capacity may continue to rise, putting pressure on freight rates [12]. Summary by Directory 2025 Shipping Market Operation Review 1.1 Spot Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, among the 13 routes statistics by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 11 routes saw price declines, with the annual declines of the Shanghai - South America, Shanghai - West America, Shanghai - East America, and Shanghai - Europe routes exceeding 50%. Three routes saw price increases, with the Shanghai - Persian Gulf route having the largest increase, exceeding 19% [17]. - As of November 24, the SCFIS European route has dropped 53.4% to 1,639.37 points since the beginning of the year, and the SCFIS West America route has dropped 56.74% to 1,107.85 points [20][21]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, major container shipping companies continued to try to support the price of the Far East - Northern Europe route. For example, MSC issued price increase letters several times from September to November [26]. 1.2 Futures Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts was 72,203 lots, and the total trading volume was 34,443 lots. The total trading volume since the beginning of 2025 was 17.193 million lots, and the total funds in all contracts were about 1.814 billion yuan [31][32]. Container Shipping Market Supply Chain Tracking 2.1 Container Ship Diversion: The Suez Canal May Resume Operation in 2026 - Since November 19, 2023, the Houthi armed organization has attacked and intercepted merchant ships in the Red Sea, causing the spill - over of the Palestine - Israel conflict. Subsequently, many international shipping giants such as Maersk announced the suspension of the Red Sea route. The current situation of container ship diversion continues, with the number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal, the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, and reaching the Gulf of Aden remaining at a low level. The number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal on November 21 was only 4.21 (7 - day average), and the daily passing capacity was about 13,000 TEU. The number of container ships reaching the Gulf of Aden (7 - day average) was about 8.86, and the daily passing capacity was about 20,100 TEU. Due to the diversion of container ships, the number of container ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly, with the 7 - day average passing number being about 19.43, compared with the previous daily passing center of about 6 - 7 [39]. - Recently, Egypt has actively promoted liner companies to resume using the Suez Canal. Egyptian officials have held meetings with major shipping companies to discuss the return of global shipping to the Suez Canal route [40]. 2.2 Global Supply Chain: Supply Chain Efficiency Continues to Recover - In October, the comprehensive punctuality rate of global main routes was 42.56% (an increase of 10.09% compared with the beginning of the year), approaching the high in 2023. The punctuality rate of the Asia - Europe route in October was 35.24% (an increase of 11.61% compared with the beginning of the year), the punctuality rate of the Asia - West America route was 54.61% (an increase of 28.22% compared with the beginning of the year), and the punctuality rate of the Asia - East America route was 35.18% (an increase of 11.73% compared with the beginning of the year) [52]. - The overall port congestion pressure is relatively small. As of November 21, 2025, the congested capacity of global container ships was 10.39 million TEU, accounting for 31.7% of the total container capacity. The congested capacity of ports in the East America was 0.71 million TEU, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years, and the congested capacity of ports in the West America was 0.55 million TEU, at a relatively neutral position [62]. Container Shipping Market Supply Side 3.1 Global Supply: Annual Container Ship Deliveries Remain at a High Level - As of the end of October 2025, the total number of outstanding orders for container ships was 1,109, with a total capacity of 10.458 million TEU, a new high since statistics began [80]. - From January to October 2025, shipping companies signed 467 new shipbuilding contracts, with a total capacity of 3.636 million TEU [83]. - In 2024, 478 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.91 million TEU. From January to October 2025, 222 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.822 million TEU [85][87]. - From January to October 2025, 11 container ships were dismantled, with a total capacity of 6,000 TEU. The average age of container ships in service has increased from 10 years in 2010 to about 13.82 years, and the average age of dismantled container ships has increased from 18.78 years in 2016 to 30.33 years in 2024 [89]. - Considering container ship orders, deliveries, and dismantling, the year - on - year growth rate of container ship capacity was about 10.08% in 2024, 6.8% in 2025, 4.6% in 2026, and 6.2% in 2027. As of the end of October 2025, the number of existing container ships was 6,995, with a total capacity of 32.526 million TEU, and the year - on - year growth rate of capacity was 7.3% [98]. 3.2 Ultra - large Ship Supply: The Supply Pressure of Ships over 12,000+ TEU is High in 2027 and 2028 - As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships with a capacity of 1.918 million TEU have been delivered, including 1.072 million TEU (71 ships) of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships and 254,000 TEU (12 ships) of 17,000+ TEU ships [104][105]. - It is expected to deliver 1.0327 million TEU of 12,000+ TEU ships in 2026, 1.816 million TEU in 2027, 2.593 million TEU in 2028, and 1.437 million TEU in 2029. Overall, the supply pressure of ultra - large ships is relatively small in 2025 and 2026, but greater in 2027 and 2028 [110][111]. Container Shipping Market Demand Side 4.1 Overseas Economy: The Downward Risk of the European Economy has been Eliminated - In October 2025, the European economy showed signs of mild recovery and structural differentiation. The service industry performed strongly, the manufacturing industry stabilized, consumption and trade improved, and inflation was generally under control. However, investment confidence remained weak, construction growth slowed, and fiscal pressure increased. The overall economy still faces certain challenges, and the stability of the continuous recovery of internal and external demand needs to be monitored [117]. 4.2: European Imports Perform Well, while China's Exports to the United States Face Setbacks - From January to September 2025, the total container trade volume between the Far East and Europe was 14.81 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% compared with the same period in 2024. From January to October 2025, China's exports to Europe totaled 461.1 billion US dollars, a 7.61% increase compared with the same period in 2024 [118]. - From January to September 2025, the container trade volume between the Far East and the United States was 15.48 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% compared with the same period in 2024. From January to October 2025, China's exports to the United States were 352.3 billion US dollars, a 17.72% decrease compared with the same period in 2024 [118]. Uncertainty Factors 5.1 China - EU Trade Game - Since 2025, the EU's trade policy towards China has tightened significantly. As of November 27, it has implemented multiple substantial restrictive measures, including anti - dumping, public procurement restrictions, and technical trade barriers, covering a wide range of product areas from traditional manufacturing to high - value - added industries [126]. - In the anti - dumping field, the EU has maintained a high - frequency rhythm of initiating investigations and making rulings, with increasingly severe measures. In the public procurement field, the EU activated the International Procurement Instrument (IPI) in June, targeting the medical device industry. In the technical trade barrier field, the EU's New Battery Regulation came into effect in August, posing challenges to Chinese battery exporters [126][127]. 5.2 Suez Canal Resumption Possibility - The cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip in October 2025 provided the possibility for the resumption of the Suez Canal. However, the progress of the cease - fire agreement has encountered great resistance, and the situation remains fragile [131]. - After the cease - fire agreement in October 2025, the Suez Canal Authority took a series of measures to resume canal traffic, including holding meetings with shipping companies, implementing flexible pricing and discounts, and improving operational and service capabilities [132]. - Major shipping companies have different attitudes towards the resumption of the Suez Canal. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd are still cautious, while CMA CGM is more active. Hapag - Lloyd has prepared a "Red Sea resumption contingency plan" and anticipates that the key window period will occur after the Spring Festival [134]. Strategy Outlook 6.1 Obvious Seasonal Pattern of Container Shipping Prices - The SCFI Shanghai - Europe price has a strong seasonal pattern. The reasons for the seasonal pattern are related to domestic holidays, industrial production cycles, and Western holidays [145][146]. 6.2 Gradual Recovery of Capacity Supply, with the Weekly Average Capacity Reaching a New High in the Same Period - Since November 19, 2023, due to the Houthi armed attacks in the Red Sea, many shipping companies suspended the Red Sea route, and ships on the Asia - Europe route had to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing the voyage and reducing the number of voyages a ship can perform per year. With the delivery of new ships, the short - term capacity shortage caused by the non - operation of the Suez Canal is gradually being made up. In 2025, the weekly average capacity of most months between China and Europe exceeded 300,000 TEU, a new high in the same period in the past four years. If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the weekly average capacity may continue to rise [149][150]. 6.3 Freight Rates (Small Containers) between 2017 - 2019 Ranged from 600 - 1200 US Dollars - After the bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping in August 2016 and the development of shipbuilding technology, the container shipping industry, especially the Asia - Europe route, entered a new stable state in 2017. If the Suez Canal resumes operation, the supply of the container shipping industry will increase significantly, and the industry may return to a stage with narrower volatility and limited freight rate highs [152]. 6.4 Future Contract Market Outlook: The Container Shipping Market May Return to "Normal", with Narrower Fluctuations and High Freight Rates under Pressure - December contract: The freight rate in December is being continuously adjusted. The delivery and settlement price of the December contract is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15, 22, and 29. The freight rate center in the first half of December has been revised down to around 2,100 - 2,200 US dollars/FEU. Attention should be paid to whether there will be another price increase in the second half of December [158]. - 2602 contract: There may be a large expected difference in the February contract. The delivery and settlement price of the EC2602 contract is the arithmetic average of the prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026, which basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the price - support period of shipping companies is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may have the same valuation as the December contract [159]. - More distant contracts: If the Suez Canal resumes operation in 2026, the effective capacity supply will increase, putting pressure on freight rates. The valuation of more distant contracts may be revised down. In normal years from 2017 - 2019, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate ranged from 600 - 1200 US dollars/FEU, corresponding to the SCFIS ranging from about 600 - 1400 points [162].

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 展望 2026 年：消费端目前均较乐观，但实际兑现情况仍有待观察，整体供需格局预计有所好转，过剩量收窄。若消费端超预期，供应 端出现不可抗力，可能出现阶段性偏紧。预计 2026 年碳酸锂价格将会在 7-13 万元/吨运行，由于行业整体过剩收窄，价格重心会或出 现抬升，对于碳酸锂来说，整体波动幅度依旧较大，对于产业客户与投资机构，可把握周期性行情。 新能源&有色金属研究 过剩程度收窄 锂价重心或上移 New Eergy and Non-Frrous Mtals 本期分析研究员 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号： 0022466 期货研究报告 | 碳酸锂年报 2025-11-30 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 电话：021-60827968 邮箱：chensijie@htfc.com 从 ...

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 2025 年苹果期货表现亮眼，整体呈现震荡上行的走势。上半年主要由于旧季库存处低位，产地成交氛围活跃，去库进度同比去年加快， 库存果价格偏硬运行；而下半年主要围绕新季苹果减产预期及质量问题进行交易，延续强势上涨…… 苹果库存结构或成隐患，红枣关注旺季消 费情况 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 果蔬年报 2025-11-30 苹果库存结构或成隐患， 红枣关注旺季消费情况 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z001 ...

华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 展望 2026 年工业硅行情，整体估值相对较低，但产能过剩严重，消费端无亮点，若原料价格上涨或出现政策扰动，工业硅或有阶段 性行情。预计 2026 年工业硅盘面价格在 8000-11500 元/吨，需重点跟踪政策相关影响。 展望 2026 年：供应端产能过剩仍较严重，预计消费端难有较大亮点，但行业通过自律减产，以及限价等措施对供应端进行调控，预 计产量将控制在一定范围内，整体过剩幅度有限。预计 2026 年多晶硅盘面波动区间在 4.5-6.5 万元/吨。 基本面无亮点 仍需关注政策扰动引发行情 新能源&有色组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号：0022466 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 期货研究报告 ｜工业硅多晶硅年报 2025-11-30 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 电话：021-60 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - **International**: The November USDA monthly report was restarted, with adjustments significantly bearish for the market. The USDA substantially increased the global cotton production for the 2025/26 season, including major producers like the US, China, and Brazil. Global cotton consumption was only slightly adjusted upwards, leading to a notable rise in global ending stocks compared to September and a return to inventory accumulation. US cotton production was significantly increased due to a marked improvement in yield, while exports were only raised by 40,000 tons, significantly increasing the sales pressure on US cotton. There is a possibility of a downward adjustment to the export target, but it depends on the negotiation situation between the US and other regions. Currently, with the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, there is significant short - term supply pressure, and global textile end - consumption remains weak. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range, with limited further downward potential, but the upward drive is unclear and may be volatile. The focus should be on the subsequent sales of US cotton [5]. - **Domestic**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. As the cotton harvest in Xinjiang nears completion, the expected cotton production has recently rebounded after several adjustments, with the expected production in Xinjiang this year maintained at 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. Since the fourth quarter is still the period of concentrated listing of new cotton, commercial inventories are seasonally rising, and there is sufficient short - term supply. Zhengzhou cotton will still be suppressed by hedging positions. On the demand side, downstream demand has been weak since entering the off - season of the textile industry, but spinning profits have generally improved, and the pressure on finished product inventories is acceptable, without forming an obvious negative feedback, so the downward space of the market is also limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term. In the medium to long term, the expansion of downstream production capacity has increased domestic cotton consumption, and consumption in the new season is expected to remain resilient. With the expected low level of imports, the domestic supply - demand situation in the new season is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [6]. Strategy In the short term, the market will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the center of cotton prices is expected to move up. It is recommended to build long positions in distant contracts on dips [7]. Summary by Directory 2025 Cotton Market Review - **ICE US Cotton**: Throughout 2025, ICE US cotton showed a volatile downward trend under the influence of loose global supply and external macro - pressure. Although there were periodic rebounds, the overall strength was weak. In the first half of the year, international industry news was relatively quiet. In early April, the market accelerated its decline due to the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy but quickly recovered later. In the second half of the year, due to the good yield expectations of major cotton - producing countries, the market continuously traded on the expectation of global bumper harvests, and combined with the poor performance of US cotton export contracts, the US cotton futures price continued to weaken [1][11]. - **Domestic Zhengzhou Cotton**: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton market had five main stages throughout the year. From January to March, it fluctuated, with the post - holiday downstream trading improving after the negative tariff policy was exhausted, but the tariff issue resurfaced at the end of February, causing the price to decline. From April to June, it bottomed out and rebounded. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, Zhengzhou cotton gapped down and plunged due to Trump's announcement of high - tariff policies, but rebounded as Sino - US trade relations eased. From July to August, it first rose and then fell back, followed by a relatively strong fluctuation. In July, the domestic commercial inventory was rapidly depleted, and the supply shortage expectation at the end of the year increased, and the price climbed continuously but then fell back from the high. In August, the tariff extension and tight spot supply supported the relatively strong fluctuation. In September, it accelerated its decline as new cotton was about to be listed and the yield increase expectation was strengthening, and the demand was weak. From October to the present, it fluctuated within a range. After the National Day, as the harvest progress accelerated, the expected new cotton yield decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, and Zhengzhou cotton gradually stabilized and rebounded, but the upward space was limited by hedging pressure [12]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis Global: The ending stocks for the 25/26 season were significantly increased, and the supply - demand outlook is relatively loose The November USDA report was the first after the US government ended the shutdown. The USDA significantly increased the global cotton production by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to September, including increases in the US, Brazil, and China. Global cotton consumption was only slightly increased by 10,000 tons to 25.88 million tons, with the increase in consumption far less than the increase in supply. Due to a slight increase in the beginning stocks, the ending stocks were increased by 610,000 tons compared to September and 310,000 tons year - on - year. The new - season global cotton market supply - demand outlook is relatively loose [16]. US: The USDA increased US cotton production, and the export target is still uncertain The USDA increased US cotton production by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons in November, mainly due to the significant improvement in yield. The new - season US cotton export volume was slightly increased by 40,000 tons to 2.66 million tons. However, the US cotton sales progress is still significantly behind compared to previous years, and it is still uncertain whether the export target can be achieved, and there is a possibility of a downward adjustment. As of November 16, the national cotton picking progress was 71%, behind the same period last year and the five - year average. The drought situation has slightly expanded, but its impact on cotton growth has weakened [19][20][23]. India: The yield is expected to remain stable year - on - year, and there are differences in import and consumption estimates The USDA made few adjustments to India's cotton supply - demand this month. The 25/26 season's cotton yield is estimated to be 5.23 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; imports are estimated to be 610,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons year - on - year; consumption is estimated to be 5.44 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; exports are estimated to be 280,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons year - on - year; and ending stocks are estimated to be 2.29 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year. The India Cotton Association (CAI) has different estimates, with a decrease in yield, an increase in imports, a decrease in domestic demand, a decrease in exports, and an increase in ending stocks compared to the previous year [30]. Brazil: The yield increase expectation for the 25/26 season is stable, but the export target is challenging According to the November USDA report, Brazil's cotton production for the 25/26 season was increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons compared to September, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA also slightly increased Brazil's cotton export volume by 40,000 tons to 3.16 million tons, and the ending stocks were increased by 60,000 tons compared to September and 160,000 tons year - on - year. The current sales progress of Brazilian cotton is still significantly behind, and the overseas textile and clothing export performance is weak, so the subsequent export of Brazilian cotton still faces significant pressure [33]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis USDA: Continuously increased domestic cotton production, showing a slight inventory accumulation in the new season The November USDA report significantly increased China's cotton production for the 25/26 season by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons year - on - year, and slightly increased imports by 40,000 tons to 1.18 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. The ending stocks were increased by 260,000 tons compared to September and 70,000 tons compared to the 24/25 season, showing a slight inventory accumulation [36]. BCO: Slightly increased the consumption for the 25/26 season, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose In November, the Cotton Information Network (BCO) made few adjustments to the domestic supply - demand data for the 25/26 season. The national production was stable at 7.42 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons compared to the previous year. Imports remained at the estimated 1.2 million tons. The annual spinning cotton consumption expectation was increased by 60,000 tons, and other consumption was decreased by 30,000 tons. Exports remained at 20,000 tons. The ending stocks were decreased by 30,000 tons to 6.33 million tons, but still increased by 170,000 tons year - on - year, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose [40][41]. Purchase and Sale: The new cotton harvest is nearly completed, and the yield increase expectation is further strengthened As of November 20, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress was 98.9%, the delivery rate was 98.1%, the processing rate was 64.2%, and the sales rate was 27.9%, all higher than the same period last year and the four - year average. The expected new cotton production is 7.432 million tons, and the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton is 7.351 million tons, an increase of 755,000 tons year - on - year [44]. Import: The import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a low level in the new season The domestic cotton import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. Although the tariff on US cotton imports has been reduced, the expected increase in domestic cotton production and the limited quota are expected to keep the new - season import volume at a low level. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 66.9% year - on - year [46][48]. Inventory: The commercial inventory turned positive year - on - year, with significant short - term supply pressure In October, the domestic new cotton was listed in large quantities, and the commercial inventory increased rapidly, turning positive year - on - year. As of the end of October 2025, the national cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month, and 43,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The textile enterprise's in - stock industrial inventory and available inventory also increased [51]. Direct Downstream: Mainly for raw material procurement based on rigid demand, and the finished product inventory pressure is acceptable The downstream demand is currently not strong but still has some resilience. The cotton yarn market has entered the off - season, with a decline in orders. The Xinjiang market is stable without inventory pressure. The grey fabric market is differentiated, with the clothing category weak and the home textile category having continuous sales. The weaving mills' inventory is low, and they mainly purchase as needed. The spinning profit has improved, and the inventory pressure on finished products is not large, but attention should be paid to the subsequent foreign trade orders [61]. Terminal Consumption: Domestic demand is growing steadily, and the foreign trade is under pressure but the export environment is expected to improve Domestically, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles have achieved stable growth this year. In October, the retail sales were 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales were 1.2053 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Externally, textile and clothing exports continued to be under pressure in October. However, the Sino - US negotiation has achieved substantial progress, and the export tariff has been reduced, which is expected to improve the export competitiveness. In the last two months of the fourth quarter, exports to the US are expected to pick up slightly, and the foreign trade export environment is expected to improve next year [70][71]. 2026 Cotton Market Outlook - **International**: The November USDA report is bearish for the market. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure due to the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere and weak global textile end - consumption. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range with limited downward space, but the upward drive is unclear, and attention should be paid to the subsequent sales [81]. - **Domestic**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a range due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. In the medium to long term, domestic cotton consumption is expected to be resilient, and the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas new - capacity addition is limited in 2025 - 2026. With major overseas broadleaf pulp mills announcing production cuts and conversions in the second half of this year, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and the growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down. European economic improvement may increase the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition in recent years may bring more supply next year, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [5][50]. - Regarding demand, although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production this year, terminal demand was insufficient, paper was in surplus, and paper mills' operating rates were low. The downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement, resulting in high port inventories. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, the demand for cultural paper is not expected to be strong, and packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [5][50]. - Overall, in the short - term, the improvement in pulp supply and demand is insufficient, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the pulp price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to wait for the bottom - building and then consider long - position opportunities when the price is low. The breakthrough from the bottom depends on substantial improvement in supply and demand. Attention should also be paid to the impact of the remaining cloth - needle warehouse receipts on the market [6][51]. Summary by Directory 2025 Pulp Market Review - The pulp price showed a trend of continuous decline followed by wide - range fluctuations at a low level throughout the year. It can be divided into five stages: from January to early February, it fluctuated strongly; from mid - February to early May, it declined continuously; from mid - May to July, it fluctuated widely; from August to early October, it hit a new low again; from mid - October to the present, it consolidated at a low level [12][13]. Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis Global Wood Pulp Supply - In 2025, overseas pulp mills had few large - scale new installations. The capacity ramp - up of Suzano's broadleaf pulp in Brazil was the main source of market pressure. The global broadleaf pulp shipments remained at a high level throughout the year, and the global softwood pulp shipments recovered rapidly in the third quarter. The shipments to Western Europe and North America decreased, while the demand from China increased significantly. In 2025, from January to September, the cumulative global softwood pulp shipments increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative global broadleaf pulp shipments increased by 7.7% year - on - year. In September, pulp mills reduced inventories, but the overall inventory was still at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the softwood pulp inventory pressure was higher than that of broadleaf pulp [16]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the pressure of overseas new - capacity release is expected to ease, and the global broadleaf pulp supply pressure may decrease marginally. The growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down, while the softwood pulp may still see a slight increase in the short - term due to high inventory and rising shipments [17]. European Consumption and Inventory - European demand remained weak. In October, the consumption of softwood pulp in Europe was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%; the consumption of broadleaf pulp was 562,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In October, the inventory days at European pulp mills remained at a historical high, suppressing the pulp price. Most European ports' inventories decreased month - on - month in September, and the total European port inventory decreased by 4.39% month - on - month, but it was still at a relatively high level in recent years [21]. China's Pulp Imports - In 2025, the cumulative global pulp shipments increased slightly year - on - year. Due to weak demand in the European and American markets, China became the main destination for increased shipments. From January to October, China's cumulative pulp imports increased by 4.8% year - on - year. The increase in China's pulp imports mainly came from the rise in broadleaf pulp imports, and the total softwood pulp imports also increased, but the increase was relatively small [24][25]. - In 2026, with the recovery of the European economy, the proportion of trade pulp sent to China may decline. The import pressure of broadleaf pulp may decrease, and the increase in softwood pulp imports is also expected to be limited [25]. China's Port Inventories - In 2025, China's pulp port inventories remained at a high level for a long time, indicating an oversupply in the domestic pulp market. Downstream paper mills had low willingness to replenish raw material inventories and mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In November, the port inventory increased slightly, and the inventory pressure remained. The combined pulp inventory of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Baoding area in late November was about 2.0104 million tons, a 3.55% increase from the previous month [31]. China's Downstream Consumption - In recent years, the large - scale new - capacity addition in the domestic finished paper industry led to over - capacity and insufficient demand, squeezing the paper mills' profits. Some large enterprises limited or stopped production. In 2025, the new - capacity addition of white cardboard and offset paper still put pressure on their profits. Although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the overall paper production did not increase significantly. From January to October, the total output of four major types of paper was 31.02 million tons, almost the same as last year. In the long - term, the planned new - capacity addition of paper is still large, and the pulp demand is expected to increase slightly next year. But if the terminal orders do not improve, the upside of the pulp price will be limited [34][35]. 2026 Pulp Market Outlook - Supply: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe may increase, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition may bring more supply, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [50]. - Demand: Terminal demand is insufficient, and paper mills' operating rates are low. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [50]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the pulp market will fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to long - position opportunities when the price is low [7].

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 回顾 2025 年的内外糖价走势，市场整体围绕 25/26 榨季全球食糖供应增加预期进行交易，全年呈现出震荡下跌的走势。内盘大方 向跟随外盘，阶段性的价格强弱主要受到国内产销进度及国内政策的影响…… 全球过剩预期增强，内外糖价持续承压 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 全球过剩预期增强，内外糖价持续承压 研究院 农产品组 研究员 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 白糖年报 2025-11-30 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 010-64405 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the coal and coke market experienced significant fluctuations, with coal policies playing a decisive role in correcting supply - demand imbalances and guiding prices back to rational levels. In 2026, the supply - demand situation of coal and coke is expected to remain generally balanced, but short - term supply - demand mismatches caused by policy changes cannot be ignored. The prices of coal and coke will still fluctuate with the black sector, but the volatility will decrease significantly compared to 2025 [6]. Summary by Directory 2025 Coal Coke Market Review 2025 Coking Coal Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coking coal market showed a deep V - shaped trend in 2025. The futures price of the main coking coal contract dropped from 1,174 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 709 yuan/ton, a decline of 40%, and then rebounded to 1,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 87%. The spot price fluctuations were lower than those of futures. For example, the price of Shaheyi Mongolian coal No. 5 dropped by 27% and then rebounded by 52% [7]. - **Supply Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal supply was loose due to relaxed production control policies. After the central government's policies and inspections in July, the growth of coking coal production was curbed. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 438 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [8]. - **Import Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports decreased significantly. In the second half, imports gradually increased. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports in 2025 will reach 116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Mongolia's coking coal imports showed a trend of low in the first half and high in the second half, while the imports from the US and Australia decreased [35]. - **Demand Side**: In 2025, coking coal demand increased throughout the year. It is predicted that the cumulative pig iron production will reach 921 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, and the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) will reach 559 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [10]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory was continuously reduced in 2025, and the inventory structure was optimized. At the beginning of the year, the inventory was at a high level, and then it gradually shifted to the middle and lower reaches [56]. 2025 Coke Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coke price also experienced a V - shaped reversal in 2025. The futures price of the main coke contract dropped by 30% in the first half and then increased by 43% in the second half. The spot price fluctuations were also lower than those of coking coal [11]. - **Supply Side**: Coke production increased slightly in 2025. Due to insufficient coking profits, coking plants adopted a production - to - order strategy. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [11]. - **Demand Side**: Coke consumption generally followed downstream demand. In 2025, the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) is predicted to reach 398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. However, the export situation was not optimistic, with a predicted cumulative net export of 679,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% [12]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory was moderately reduced in 2025. The inventory of coking plants decreased to a low level in the second half of the year, the steel mills' inventory remained at a medium level, and the port inventory fluctuated at a medium - high level [80]. 2026 Coal Coke Supply - Demand Forecast 2026 Coking Coal Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: In 2026, coking coal production is likely to continue to grow moderately, but short - term supply mismatches caused by coal policies cannot be ignored. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [13]. - **Import**: The coking coal import situation may improve in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports will reach 128 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. Mongolia and Canada's coking coal imports are expected to increase, while the US coking coal is unlikely to enter the Chinese market [13]. - **Demand**: Coking coal consumption will continue to increase in 2026, following the growth of steel production. It is predicted that the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 564 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [14]. 2026 Coke Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: Coke production may continue to grow slightly in 2026. The coking industry still faces problems such as over - capacity and low industrial concentration. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 409 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [15]. - **Demand**: Coke consumption may perform relatively well in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 403 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. However, the export scale is difficult to improve, with a predicted cumulative net export of 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6% [15].