1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday freight rate drivers are weak, and attention should be paid to Maersk's WEEK7 quotes. The market is speculating on the price - holding expectations of relatively low pressure on March's shipping capacity. The near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. In normal years, April and October are the months with the lowest freight rates. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect shipping companies' pricing strategies. Investors should be cautious when participating in the 04 contract. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe can significantly increase in February and March and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is bearish. The uncertainty of the Suez Canal's resumption time and the relatively small delivery of ultra - large ships in 2026 will cause greater fluctuations in the far - month contracts [1][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of January 26, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 63,443.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 51,020.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 contracts were 1726.70, 1200.20, 1447.60, 1524.00, 1114.20, and 1373.50 respectively [7]. II. Spot Prices - On January 23, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1595 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2084 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2896 US dollars/FEU. On January 26, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1859.31 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1294.32 points [7]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU have been delivered, and 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 277,672 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU will be delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in February was 283,000 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK6/7/8/9 were 340,000, 342,000, 261,100, and 188,300 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March was 295,800 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK10/11/12/13/14 were 252,400, 338,600, 348,700, 285,200, and 254,500 TEU respectively. There were 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA alliance, 6 by the PA alliance, and 1 by the Gemini alliance) and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The stability in the Red Sea area has improved. On January 15, Maersk announced that it would resume the Suez Canal route for its MECL service to improve transportation efficiency on the premise of ensuring safety. CMA has decided to divert the ships deployed on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal [2][6]. V. Demand and European Economy - In December and January, the cargo volume was at a relatively high level during the year. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect shipping companies' pricing strategies. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe can significantly increase in February and March and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5].

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-27 成本端与宏观面提振，盘面延续上行 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6935元/吨（+70），PP主力合约收盘价为6737元/吨（+81），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+70），LL华东现货为6900元/吨（+100），PP华东现货为6520元/吨（+70），LL华北基差为-135元/吨（+0）， LL华东基差为-35元/吨（+30）， PP华东基差为-217元/吨（-11）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.7%（+3.1%），PP开工率为76.0%（+0.4%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为104.2元/吨（-23.2），PP油制生产利润为-485.8元/吨（-23.2），PDH制PP生产利 润为-715.8元/吨（+59.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为267.9元/吨（+111.0），PP进口利润为-375.9元/吨（+30.6），PP出口利润为-56.8美元/吨 （-3.9）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为36.3%（-0.6%），PE下游包装膜开工率为45.0%（-3.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（-0.6%） ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-27 青岛港口库存小幅回落 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16230元/吨，较前一日变动-85元/吨；NR主力合约13085元/吨，较前一日变动-10 元/吨；BR主力合约13265元/吨，较前一日变动+335元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15950元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15150元/吨，较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1945美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1875 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格13000元/吨，较前一日变动+300元/吨。浙江 传化BR9000市场价12900元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 据中国海关总署1月18日公布的数据显示，2025年中国橡胶轮胎出口量达965万吨，同比增长 ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-01-27 伊朗局势升温，盘面大幅上涨 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨6.81%，报2791元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.49%，报3156 元/吨。 近期中东局势显著升温，美国上周五加大了对伊朗的施压，对运输伊朗石油的船只实施更多制裁，并宣布一支舰 队正驶向这个中东国家。伊朗不同于委内瑞拉，由于其地缘位置的重要性，可能波及周边重要产油国以及霍尔木 兹海峡，因此油市对伊朗局势的敏感性远大于委内瑞拉。市场担忧美国、以色列对伊朗采取军事打击，从而造成 大规模石油断供，原油地缘溢价攀升，并带动下游能化商品上涨。 高硫燃料油是伊朗出口的主要油品，对伊朗的风险敞口在板块中尤为显著。此外，近期亚太高硫燃料油基本面与 市场结构边际走强，炼厂与船燃端需求表现相对坚挺，FU期货仓单也有部分注销。因此，基于现实基本面与地缘 风险敞口的缘故，如果地缘风险持续演绎，FU价格弹性将相对突出。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场矛盾有限，主要跟随原油端被动上涨。站在供需层面，近期随着Dangote与阿祖尔炼厂 装置动态变动，尼日利亚与科威特供应出现较大回升，市场局部压力或有所增加。往前看，剩 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is clearly supported due to the combined effects of reduced supply and demand, along with the upward price transmission of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain. The upside potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [3] - Polysilicon prices are predicted to rise slightly with small oscillations. The cancellation of export tax - rebates in the photovoltaic industry this month may stimulate short - term polysilicon exports. With multiple polysilicon enterprises planning to halt production, supply is shrinking, driving short - term price increases. The market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and downstream over - capacity is being cleared out rapidly [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 26, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upwards. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,865 yuan/ton and closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, a change of 85 yuan/ton (0.96%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 252,307 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 25, 2026, was 13,115 lots, a change of 144 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices remained flat in multiple regions, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of January 22, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase from the previous week [1] Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the photovoltaic VAT export tax - rebate policy is expected to increase short - term polysilicon demand. Strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon, and short - term demand benefits are driving price increases. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and organic silicon maintained a staggered - peak emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy is weakening marginally, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable but slightly weak [2] Supply End - There is an expectation of production cuts and halts at the end of January, and the supply side shows a contraction trend [2] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. In the case of both supply and demand reduction, combined with the price increase transmission effects of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is obvious. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 26, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated upwards, opening at 50,700 yuan/ton and closing at 51,280 yuan/ton, a 1.19% change in the closing price from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 41,290 lots (41,291 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on that day was 13,705 lots [3] - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was 49.50 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% change from the previous period; silicon wafer inventory was 26.78GW, an 8.07% change from the previous period. The weekly polysilicon output was 20,500 tons, a - 4.65% change from the previous period, and the silicon wafer output was 10.86GW, a 0.28% change from the previous period [3] - In the silicon wafer segment, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.33 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.65 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.43 yuan/piece [4] - In the battery segment, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.44 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W; HJT210 half - slice battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4] - In the component segment, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise slightly with small oscillations. The cancellation of the export tax - rebate policy in the photovoltaic industry this month may stimulate short - term polysilicon exports. Although there is no obvious improvement on the consumption side currently, there is an expectation of a boost. With multiple polysilicon enterprises planning to halt production, supply is shrinking, driving short - term price increases. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight upward oscillation in the short term - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [6]

农产品日报 | 2026-01-27 规模场出栏上行，待需求伴随增长 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11465元/吨，较前交易日变动-100.00元/吨，幅度-0.86%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.15元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.10元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1685，较前交易日变动+110；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 13.37元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.15元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1905，较前交易日变动+60；四 川地区外三元生猪价格12.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1405，较前交易日变动+200。 据农业农村部监测，1月26日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.34，比上周五下降0.07个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为133.26，比上周五下降0.08个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.65元/公斤，比上周五上升0.9%； 牛肉66.23元/公斤，比上周五上升0.3%；羊肉63.95元/公斤，比上周五上升1.3%；鸡蛋8.41元/公斤，比上周五上升 0.6%；白条鸡16.93元/公斤，比上 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-27 买卖双方观望情绪浓重 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-26，LME铅现货升水为-44.56美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16950元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 16975元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16925元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -75元/吨至16925元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-125元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10025元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10125元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10300元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-26，沪铅主力合约开于17170元/吨，收于17070元/吨，较前一交易日变化-25元/吨，全天交易日 成交49016手，较前一交易日变化11587手，全天交易日持仓63785手，手较前一交易日变化-1409手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17215元/吨，最低点达到170 ...

贵金属日报 | 2026-01-27 金银冲高回落 美经济韧性凸显 市场分析 周一贵金属市场剧烈波动。COMEX白银一度大涨超16%，现货白银一度涨近14%，双双站上117美元/盎司关口， 但随后大幅回落，上演"过山车"行情，COMEX白银涨幅收窄至2.5%，现货白银转跌。COMEX黄金现货黄金一度 连续突破5000美元、5100美元两道关口，但随后涨幅持续回落，COMEX黄金收涨0.5%，现货黄金涨幅收窄至0.5%， 双双徘徊于5000美元附近。现货钯金一度大涨7%，最终收跌逾3%。地缘方面，欧洲议会国际贸易委员会主席贝恩 德·朗格在社交媒体上表示，欧洲议会未就是否恢复欧美贸易协议批准程序作出决定，具体决定将由欧洲议会谈判 团队在晚些时候作出。根据朗格发布的消息，欧洲议会国际贸易委员会定于2月23日至24日举行会议。经济数据方 面，美国2025年11月耐用品订单环比增长5.3%，创六个月最大增幅，远超市场预期的增长3.7%。核心订单耐用品 订单环比增长0.5%，连续第八个月实现增长。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-26，沪金主力合约开于1113.00元/克，收于1143.32元/克，较前一交易日收盘变 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-27 回调风险增强，碳酸锂冲高回落 市场分析 2026-01-26，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于189220元/吨，收于165680元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-6.56%。当 日成交量为575675手，持仓量为416719手，前一交易日持仓量438728手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-4700 元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单28646手，较上个交易日变化490手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价178000-185000元/吨，较前一交易日变化10500元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价175000-181000元/吨，较前一交易日变化10500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2295美元/吨，较前一日变化20美元/吨。 碳酸锂价格近期持续冲高，上游锂盐厂惜售情绪逐渐增强；下游材料厂维持按需采购节奏，并开始为二月生产备 库，但昨日午后随着价格一路震荡快速下跌，散单采购意愿有所上升，市场询价与成交活跃度有所提高。 根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为108896吨，环比-783吨。其中冶炼厂库存为19834吨，环比+107吨；下游库存 为37592吨，环比 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, the market divergence lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality", with short - term prices being easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. For the stainless - steel market, the core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia materializes and the ferronickel price continues to rise, the cost support will strengthen, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If demand remains weak and inventories are high, the price may face downward pressure [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 26, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 149,880 yuan/ton and closed at 145,380 yuan/ton, with a 0.25% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 730,480 (-22,360) lots, and the open interest was 59,283 (-9,313) lots. It showed a pattern of "rising and then falling, wide - range oscillation", rising due to the expected supply contraction in Indonesia and the linkage with LME nickel, but then falling under short - selling pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained stable overall. After continuous price increases in previous days, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, with a calmer trading atmosphere and increased wait - and - see sentiment. The mine end maintained firm quotes. In Indonesia, the market price remained stable, and there was an expectation that the February domestic trade benchmark price (HPM) might be further raised due to the rising nickel price [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 157,300 yuan/ton, up 4,600 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were stable with a slight decline. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 42,517 (450) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 285,552 (1,824) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - Market divergence is concentrated in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". Short - term prices are volatile. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 26, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,645 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 365,984 (+18,855) lots, and the open interest was 155,289 (-4,171) lots. It showed a pattern of "rising and then falling, narrow - range decline", rising at the opening due to the cost - side nickel price but lacking upward momentum due to weak downstream demand and light spot trading [3][4]. - **Spot**: Recently, stainless - steel prices have risen, leading to increased downstream price - aversion sentiment. Actual trading was poor. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,550 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,450 (+100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was - 140 to - 40 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,050.0 yuan/nickel point [5]. - **Strategy** - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. Short - term strategy is range - bound operation, high - selling and low - buying with strict stop - loss. Medium - term, pay attention to policy and demand changes and wait for a clear trend before deploying single - side positions. The single - side view is neutral, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].