1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, the prices of Chinese chemical products have bottomed out and rebounded, with a trend reversal. As of January 26, 2026, the Chinese chemical product price index rose to 4084, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The year - on - year decline in PPI of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing industries in December has narrowed, indicating that the industry's price pressure is continuously easing [1]. - The newly revised "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" was announced on the 27th and will come into effect on May 15. Encouraging innovation is a prominent feature of this revision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Chemical**: The price of PTA continues to rise [1]. - **Energy**: The prices of international crude oil and liquefied natural gas have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Midstream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [2]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants continues at a low level [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [2]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [2]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 27, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork increased year - on - year by 0.19%, 5.81%, 2.46%, 0.64%, and 0.92% respectively [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year by 0.85%, 1.76%, 0.76%, and 2.34% respectively, while the spot price of aluminum decreased by 0.18% [36]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot price of iron ore increased year - on - year by 1.13%, while the spot prices of rebar and wire decreased by 0.35% and 1.15% respectively [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of glass and natural rubber increased year - on - year by 1.56% and 2.79% respectively, and the China Plastic City price index increased by 0.46% [36]. - **Energy**: On January 27, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas increased year - on - year by 2.17%, 1.58%, and 3.63% respectively, while the coal price decreased by 0.12% [36]. - **Chemical**: On January 27, the spot prices of PTA and polyethylene increased year - on - year by about 5.87% and 2.18% respectively, while the spot prices of urea and soda ash decreased by 0.43% and 0.12% respectively [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 27, the national cement price index and building materials composite index decreased year - on - year by 0.75% and 0.46% respectively, and the national concrete price index remained unchanged [36].

印欧敲定"历史性"自贸协定，美国政府停摆风险攀升 FICC日报 | 2026-01-28 市场分析 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振 消费，以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。1月15日，央行 宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步 调整。并强调，今年降准降息还有一定空间，人民币汇率预计将继续双向浮动，保持弹性。1 月 20 日，财政部官 网集中发布 5 个重要政策文件，涵盖个人消费贷款、设备更新、中小微企业贷款、服务业经营主体贷款及民间投 资专项担保五大领域，以 "延长期限、扩大范围、提高标准" 为核心导向，通过财政贴息与担保支持，降低融资成 本、激发市场活力，助力扩大内需与经济高质量发展。1月26日，商务部表示，中方愿与美方管控分歧、推进合作， 将出台扩大入境消费政策措施。此外，伊朗和委内瑞拉的地缘局势骤紧，在民粹主义 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-28 需求方面，聚酯开工率86.2%（环比-2.1%），近期织造负荷加速下滑，下游开始1月底附近将集中放假；因涤丝价 格跟随原料快速上涨，同时终端难向下游传导，以消化原料备货为主，在原料快速上涨下被动补库。聚酯方面， 聚酯负荷加速下降，春节检修计划陆续兑现，维持1、2月月均负荷估计88.5%、80.5%，关注检修计划兑现。 PF方面，现货生产利润36元/吨（环比+106元/吨）。直纺涤短跟随原料大幅上涨，但需求疲软，涨幅不及原料。负 荷方面个别有小幅提升，大多维持平稳运行，涨价带动销售，短纤库存去化明显。需求方面，纯涤纱及涤棉纱部 分适度跟涨，纯涤纱销售顺畅，库存去化；涤棉纱销售适度好转，库存小幅下降，现金流亏损扩大。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费543元/吨(环比变动-50元/吨)。近期聚酯瓶片工厂春节检修计划陆续执行，年前去库较为 顺畅，市场现货供应量小幅回落，上涨期间成交以贸易商适量补货为主，聚酯瓶片加工费反弹。 资金减仓，PTA大幅回撤 市场要闻与数据 上周资金流入化工板块，作为基本面预期偏好的品种，PTA大幅增仓上涨;周二资金从化工板块流出，PTA减仓13.6 万手，再度大 ...

郑棉窄幅波动，糖价低位盘整 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 农产品日报 | 2026-01-28 昨日郑棉期价震荡下跌。国际方面，1月USDA下调全球棉花产量和期末库存，数据调整偏多。不过目前全球供需 格局仍偏松，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢，短期ICE美棉预计仍将承压。中长期看，美棉已处于低估值区间，进 一步下跌的空间预计不大，但向上驱动暂不明确，后续需关注新季供应题材。国内方面，25/26年度国内棉花延续 大幅增产，商业库存呈季节性回升。春节前贸易商和纺织企业积极备货，现货成交较好，但下游新增订单减少， 产业链成品库存处于偏高水平。从整个年度来看，下游纱锭产能扩张使得国内用棉量有所提升，新年度维持高产 量和高消费预期，进口维持低位的情况下，供需预计偏平衡，年度末仍有库存趋紧的可能性。 策略 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14565元/吨，较前一日变动-85元/吨，幅度-0.58%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15633元/吨，较前一日变动-84元/吨，现货基差CF05+1068，较前一日变动+1；3128B棉全国均价15953元/吨， 较前一日变动-42元/吨，现货基差CF05+1388，较前一日变 ...

甲醇日报 | 2026-01-28 伊朗局势仍反复，关注装置动向 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤500元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润313元/吨（-18）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1788元/吨（-18），内蒙北线基差84元/吨（+26），内蒙南线1810元/吨（-10）；山东临沂2185元/吨（+10）， 鲁南基差81元/吨（+53）；河南1990元/吨（-25），河南基差-114元/吨（+18）；河北2025元/吨（+0），河北基差-19 元/吨（+43）。隆众内地工厂库存438420吨（-12530），西北工厂库存261400吨（-10110）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 238268吨（+1500），西北工厂待发订单150800吨（+17300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2267元/吨（-33），太仓基差-37元/吨（+10），CFR中国272美元/吨（+5），华东进口价差-23元/ 吨（-1），常州甲醇2290元/吨；广东甲醇2265元/吨（-15），广东基差-39元/吨（+28）。隆众港口总库存1457451吨 （+22201），江苏港口库存712951吨（-52 ...

丙烯日报 | 2026-01-28 现货供需仍偏紧，成本端驱动仍存 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6248元/吨（-72），丙烯华东现货价6475元/吨（+35），丙烯华北现货价6405元/吨（+55）， 丙烯华东基差227元/吨（+107），丙烯山东基差157元/吨（+127）。丙烯开工率71%（-4%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石 脑油CFR252美元/吨（+7），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR83美元/吨（+11），进口利润-426元/吨（-24），厂内库存38980吨 （-7290）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率31%（-0.84%），生产利润-305元/吨（-55）；环氧丙烷开工率73%（+1%），生产利润-288 元/吨（-4）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润867元/吨（+116）；辛醇开工率96%（+2%），生产利润916元/吨 （+60）；丙烯酸开工率82%（-1%），生产利润203元/吨（+25）；丙烯腈开工率75%（-3%），生产利润-1131元/吨（+44）； 酚酮开工率86%（-4%），生产利润-828元/吨（-25）。 供应端，PDH装置停车消息逐步兑现，巨正源 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-28 市场情绪转弱，价格震荡下行 玻璃纯碱：下游需求支撑不足，玻碱延续震荡运行 市场分析 玻璃：昨日玻璃2605合约全天呈现窄幅波动走势。现货方面，市场报价随盘面波动，部分厂家小幅提价，交投氛 围尚可。 供需和逻辑：玻璃基本面仍然偏弱，春节小长假在即，目前产线冷修继续，市场仍有停产预期，近日出货有所好 转，供应端库存压力有所缓解；下游企业以刚需采购为主，后续关注小长假累库情况。 纯碱：昨日纯碱2605合约震荡运行为主。现货方面，市场报价随盘面高位震荡，下游观望为主。 供需与逻辑：昨日仓单录得1719张，交割月临近，单日仓单大增对价格形成压制。最新数据显示库存有所上涨， 需求端仍显低迷，供需矛盾加深；叠加交割月仓单博弈，预计纯碱价格将维持震荡运行。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：供需矛盾不突出，铁合金震荡运行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日锰硅主力合约日内维持偏弱趋势运行，日增仓较大。现货方面：合金成本支撑尚可，6517北方市 场价格5570-5680元/吨，南 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inclusion of large - granular urea in the alternative delivery system in Northeast China since 2027 will improve the precision of corporate hedging and reduce logistics and delivery costs [1][9] - The difference in physical properties between large - and small - granular urea leads to different application scenarios, regional adaptability, and industrial chain positions, which in turn affects the price difference between the two [12][13][14] - The price difference between large - and small - granular urea shows seasonal characteristics and is affected by supply - side disturbances and global export structure differentiation [2][30][31] - The technical transformation of urea plants in Jincheng, Shanxi is a systematic upgrade, and the original production capacity is retained, and the impact on the price difference will gradually converge [43][45][50] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Introduction to Large - Granular Urea - **Industry Development Trend**: The domestic large - granular urea industry has seen steady expansion of production capacity and high - speed growth of output. The proportion of large - granular urea production capacity in the total domestic urea production capacity has increased from 17% in 2021 to 21% in 2025. In 2025, the output reached 14.35 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 17% [8] - **Policy Adjustment**: Since February 16, 2027, qualified large - granular urea can be used as an alternative delivery product in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton, which is in line with regional consumption characteristics and helps enterprises carry out hedging [1][9] 3.2 Comparison between Large - and Small - Granular Urea - **Physical Properties and Application Scenarios**: Large - granular urea has a slow dissolution rate, is suitable for mechanized deep application and the production of high - end compound fertilizers, and is mainly demanded in Northeast China. Small - granular urea dissolves quickly, is suitable for top - dressing, flushing, and spraying, and has strong market liquidity [13][14] - **Futures Delivery**: Small - granular urea is the benchmark delivery product, while large - granular urea can be used as an alternative delivery product in Northeast China starting from the 2703 contract, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton [15] 3.3 Large - Granular Urea Plants - **Regional Distribution**: North China is the most concentrated area for large - granular urea production capacity in China, accounting for 44% of the national total, with Shanxi accounting for 28% and Inner Mongolia accounting for 14% [16] - **Production Process**: The mainstream processes of large - granular urea plants are single - stage granulation and two - stage granulation. Two - stage granulation has better product quality, more flexible production conversion, and higher price [20][23] 3.4 Analysis of the Price Difference between Large - and Small - Granular Urea - **Seasonal Characteristics**: The price difference between large - and small - granular urea is wide in the fourth quarter due to winter fertilizer storage in Northeast China and narrow from June to August after the spring plowing [30] - **Influence Factors**: The price difference is affected by supply - side production capacity changes and the differentiation of export market preferences. Different regions in the international market have different preferences for large - and small - granular urea [31] - **Historical Price Difference Analysis**: In different years from 2022 to 2025, the price difference was affected by factors such as export policies, overseas demand, and production capacity maintenance. For example, in 2022, the price difference increased significantly due to the combination of strong export demand and reduced domestic supply of large - granular urea [37][38][39] 3.5 Technical Transformation Analysis of Urea Plants in Jincheng, Shanxi - **Reasons for Transformation**: Driven by environmental protection policies, Jincheng's urea enterprises are upgrading their coal gasification technology to meet the requirements of clean production [44] - **Transformation Plan**: Enterprises have chosen two technical routes: micro - pressurized pure - oxygen continuous gasification furnace and crushed/block coal pressurized gasification (Saiding furnace), and adopted the mode of "producing, transforming, and putting into operation simultaneously" [44][45] - **Transformation Progress**: The technical transformation project has made substantial progress, and the original production capacity has been retained. The impact on the supply of large - granular urea will gradually weaken [48][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On January 26, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1246400 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1393200 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 2373700 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 57900 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1815900 contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 70200 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 122000 contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 324700 contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day, such as 957200 call contracts and 729700 put contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, with a total of 1686800 contracts [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.69, with a month - on - month change of - 0.30; the position PCR was reported at 0.76, with a month - on - month change of + 0.06. Similar data for other types of options are also provided [2] - The table presents the turnover PCR, its month - on - month change, position PCR and its month - on - month change for various index ETF options [32] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 19.29%, with a month - on - month change of + 1.71%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 18.70%, with a month - on - month change of + 1.33%. Similar data for other types of options are also given [3] - The table lists the VIX and its month - on - month change value for various index ETF options [46]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The cotton market is in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for policy drivers. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short - term, but the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The domestic cotton market has increased production and consumption, with a possible tight inventory at the end of the year [1][2] - The sugar market has a short - term tight trade flow in the first quarter, which may support the price. In the second quarter, the supply will be more abundant. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with limited downward space [3][4] - The pulp market has continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, but the domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [5][6] Group 3: Cotton Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-0.31%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,717 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,995 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [1] - In December 2025, the export volume of cotton yarn was 25,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.78%. The export amount was 98 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.42%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export volume of cotton yarn was 332,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.48%, and the export amount was 1.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.23% [1] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated and closed down. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short - term, and the US cotton export signing progress is slow. In the long - term, the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The domestic cotton production has increased significantly, and the commercial inventory has increased seasonally. Although the downstream yarn spindle capacity has expanded, the new orders have decreased, and the finished product inventory is at a relatively high level [2] Strategy - The short - term pre - holiday stocking still supports the cotton price, but the domestic market faces downstream transmission pressure and internal - external price difference pressure. It is expected to oscillate strongly. The medium - and long - term trend depends on the implementation of target price policy and area - reduction policy [3] Group 4: Sugar Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,172 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,165 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - As of January 24, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 41 sugar mills in Punjab, Pakistan were in operation, with a cumulative crushing of 24.89 million tons of sugarcane and a production of 2.329 million tons of refined sugar, an increase of 266,000 tons compared with the same period of the previous season. The paid sugarcane payment reached 92.57% of the total payable amount, higher than 87.81% in the same period of the previous season [3] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price was in a narrow - range consolidation. The Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the short - term export in the Northern Hemisphere is restricted, which may support the raw sugar price in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply will be more abundant. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with limited downward space [4] Strategy - The short - and medium - term sugar price should be treated with an oscillation - bottoming - building idea, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [3] Group 5: Pulp Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.44%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,975 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [5] - The import pulp spot market price showed a downward trend. The prices of some grades in different regions decreased to varying degrees [5] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was weakly consolidated. The overseas pulp mills' shutdown and maintenance news and the increase in foreign quotes promoted the pulp price rebound, but the global wood pulp inventory is still accumulating. The European port pulp inventory decreased in November, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [6] Strategy - Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6]