Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month, resulting in a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to May[1][4] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained below 1.0%, indicating a weak domestic price level primarily due to insufficient consumer demand[2][4] - The decline in CPI was influenced by a 6.1% year-on-year drop in energy prices, which contributed approximately 0.47 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease[5][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year in May, with the decline accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weakened pricing momentum and increased drag from base effects[2][9] - Month-on-month, the PPI decreased by 0.4%, maintaining the same decline rate as the previous two months[2][9] - Key sectors such as coal, steel, and cement experienced price declines due to weak domestic demand and ample supply, contributing to the overall PPI decrease[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to hover around 0% in June, while the PPI year-on-year decline is projected to remain at approximately -3.3%[3][12] - The government aims to implement macroeconomic policies to promote reasonable price recovery in the second half of the year, which may include fiscal measures to boost consumption and further interest rate cuts by the central bank[3][12] - The impact of external economic fluctuations on consumer confidence and potential downward pressure from "export to domestic" shifts will be critical to monitor[7][12]

债市延续暖势，收益率曲线陡峭化下移 ——利率债周报（2025.6.2-2025.6.8） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市延续暖势，收益率曲线陡峭化下移。上周（6 月 2 日当 周）海外关税政策不确定性延续，为债市提供支撑。同时，尽 管大量同业存单陆续到期，但央行首次提前公告买断式逆回购 操作，加之首次披露月度各项工具流动性投放情况，释放加强 预期管理信号，市场资金宽松预期进一步强化，对债市产生利 多影响。在此背景下，上周长债收益率整体下行。短端利率方 面，月初资金面均衡偏松，带动债市短端利率下行，且下行幅 度大于长端，收益率曲线趋于陡峭化。 本周（6 月 9 日当周）债市料延续偏强震荡。从基本面来看， 本周将陆续公布5月通胀、贸易以及金融数据。其中，5月CPI 和 PPI 同比仍处负值区间，反应居民消费信心不足，内需整体 疲弱，同时，受海外关税政策反复影响，外需整体走弱， 5 月 出口增速有所放缓，基本面对债市影响将偏利多。从资金面来 看，尽管本周逆回购与存单到期规模较大，但央行提前开展 1 万亿买断式逆回购操作予以对冲，释放"呵护"信号，资金面 有望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On June 4, the capital market remained loose, bullish sentiment rose, the bond market significantly recovered, and the main indices of the convertible bond market followed the upward trend with most individual convertible bonds rising. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined, while the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The central government plans to support 20 cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, in implementing urban renewal actions [3]. - As of June 4, the net repayment of urban investment bonds this year has exceeded 220 billion yuan, and the proportion of public - offering urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.2% is only about 10%. Future focus on generating returns lies in 2 - 5 - year urban investment bonds with a rating below AA [3]. - Shanghai encourages enterprises to apply for infrastructure REITs reserve projects and supports various cooperation and expansion methods [4]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is considering introducing virtual asset derivatives trading for professional investors and will formulate risk management measures [4]. - The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states' finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting supports deepening regional financial cooperation [5]. 3.1.2 International News - In May, the U.S. ISM Services PMI contracted for the first time in a year, with significant changes in various sub - indices, which may put pressure on the manufacturing industry in the future [6]. - The U.S. ADP employment increase in May dropped to 37,000, the lowest level since March 2023, far below expectations, and investors' expectations of future interest rate cuts have risen significantly [7]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On June 4, international crude oil futures prices turned down, and international natural gas prices fell. WTI July crude oil futures fell 0.88% to $62.85 per barrel, Brent August crude oil futures fell 1.17% to $64.86 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $3398.80 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.43% to $3.706 per ounce [9]. 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations On June 4, the central bank conducted 214.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered manner, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The same day, 215.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 600 million yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates On June 4, the capital market remained loose. DR001 decreased by 0.03bp to 1.413%, and DR007 increased by 0.53bp to 1.555%. Various other interest rates also showed different changes [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest Rate Bonds - The yields of major active bonds of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds declined. For example, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 decreased by 0.50bp to 1.6710%, and the yield of the 10 - year policy - bank bond active bond 250210 decreased by 0.60bp to 1.7110% [13][14]. - Information on bond issuance and bidding for various bonds on June 4, including the term, issuance scale, winning bid yield, and other indicators, is provided [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On June 4, 3 industrial bonds and 1 urban investment bond had a transaction price deviation of over 10%. For example, "H8 Longkong 05" dropped by over 52%, and "21 Jingcheng Investment Green Bond 01" dropped by over 24% [16][17]. - Multiple companies announced credit - related events, such as Shenzhen Longfor Holdings' new bond restructuring plan, and several companies' credit ratings were revoked [19]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On June 4, the three major A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 0.42%, 0.87%, and 1.11% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 0.49%, 0.40%, and 0.63% respectively [19][20]. - On June 4, Jianguang Convertible Bond announced that it is expected to trigger the condition for downward revision of the conversion price [22]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the U.S. bond market on June 4, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yields both decreased by 9bp to 3.87% and 4.37% respectively. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield spread remained unchanged at 50bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread widened by 2bp to 96bp. The break - even inflation rate of 10 - year U.S. inflation - protected Treasury bonds (TIPS) decreased by 1bp to 2.31% [23][25][26]. - In the European bond market on June 4, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. For example, the yield of the 10 - year German government bond increased by 2bp to 2.52%, and the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond decreased by 4bp [27]. - Information on the daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on June 4 is provided, including the daily change, credit subject, bond balance, and other details [29].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit quality for the port industry, with expectations of steady growth in throughput and profitability for 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The port industry is expected to maintain low-speed growth in throughput due to stable economic operations and global trade demand, with supportive policies for expanding domestic demand in 2025 [3][14]. - The construction of smart ports and the increase in large-scale berths are anticipated to enhance overall service levels and operational efficiency in the port sector [3][29]. - The integration of port resources has largely been completed, forming a "one port per province" pattern along the coast, which is expected to further enhance collaborative effects among ports in 2025 [3][43]. - Port enterprises are projected to maintain stable profitability in 2025, supported by growth in throughput and expansion of non-port businesses [3][49]. - The debt scale of port enterprises is expected to increase slightly in 2025 due to significant investment needs in construction, smart upgrades, and green transformations [3][57]. - Overall debt repayment capacity remains strong, although some port enterprises may face short-term repayment pressures [3][61]. Industry Fundamentals - The port industry in China has evolved to its fifth generation, characterized by large seaports and a comprehensive logistics infrastructure, with a focus on green, low-carbon, and intelligent development [4][39]. - Ports play a crucial role in promoting local economic development and are likely to receive policy and financial support [7][14]. - The port industry is closely linked to macroeconomic conditions, with throughput growth highly correlated with economic performance and trade activity [14][17]. Policy Environment - Recent policies have focused on planning, construction, and promoting green and intelligent development in the port sector, encouraging integrated and specialized growth [8][9]. - Key policies include plans to enhance the functionality of international hub ports and promote the development of smart ports and waterways [8][9]. Financial Performance of Port Enterprises - Port enterprises have shown revenue and profit growth in 2024, with expectations of stable profitability in 2025 due to supportive economic policies [49][50]. - The overall debt scale of port enterprises has increased, with a debt structure primarily consisting of long-term debt [57][60]. - The cash flow situation indicates a slight decline in operating cash inflow, but overall financing channels remain open [53][54]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the port industry will continue to grow steadily, with throughput expected to reach 164 billion tons by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2% to 3% [36][22]. - The construction of smart ports and the integration of digital technologies are expected to further enhance operational efficiency and service quality in the port sector [39][40].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the construction industry in 2025, with expectations of improved credit quality for construction enterprises, particularly state-owned and central enterprises [61][62]. Core Insights - The construction industry is expected to see a recovery in demand in 2025 due to ongoing government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting infrastructure investment [4][61]. - The report highlights that the construction sector is heavily influenced by real estate and infrastructure investments, with a projected decline in new contract amounts in 2024 but a potential rebound in 2025 [5][6][61]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with state-owned enterprises gaining market share and increasing industry concentration, while private enterprises face greater challenges [15][18][62]. Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - In 2024, the construction industry in China experienced a decline in demand, with new contract amounts dropping by 5.21% year-on-year. However, 2025 is expected to see a recovery in housing demand due to supportive policies [4][5]. - The total output value of the construction industry in 2024 was 32.65 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.9%, indicating a slowdown compared to previous years [9]. Credit Quality of Construction Enterprises - The overall credit quality of construction enterprises slightly declined in 2024, but is expected to stabilize and improve in 2025, particularly for state-owned enterprises [21][61]. - The report notes that private construction enterprises, especially those focused on housing and decoration, may face credit quality risks due to the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [21][23]. Market Competition and Concentration - The construction market is characterized by high competition, with state-owned enterprises and large local enterprises gaining market share. The concentration of the industry is expected to increase further [15][18]. - In 2024, state-owned and state-controlled enterprises accounted for 43.11% of the total output value and 59.30% of the total contract amounts in the construction industry [18]. Financial Performance and Debt Levels - The report indicates that the financial performance of construction enterprises has been under pressure, with a decline in revenue and profit margins in 2024. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2025 due to increased government spending on infrastructure [39][61]. - The overall debt levels of construction enterprises are expected to remain stable, with a slight increase in the asset-liability ratio in 2024. The report emphasizes the need for careful monitoring of liquidity risks, especially for private enterprises [43][50]. Outlook for Overseas Projects - The report highlights a positive outlook for overseas engineering projects, particularly in "Belt and Road" countries, with expectations of continued demand growth in 2025 [11][62].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On June 3, the liquidity situation was balanced with a slight easing trend. The bond market showed a weak and volatile performance overall, while the convertible bond market continued to rise following the equity market. US Treasury yields generally increased across various tenors, and the 10-year government bond yields of major European economies mostly declined [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The "Regulations on the Sharing of Government Affairs Data" will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, dropping 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The central bank conducted a standing lending facility operation of 14.01 billion yuan in May. The total social logistics volume in the first four months increased by 5.6% year-on-year. Five departments jointly launched the new energy vehicle campaign in rural areas [4][5][6]. - **International News**: The number of job openings in the US in April unexpectedly increased. The OECD downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9%. Lee Jae-myung won the South Korean presidential election [7][8][10]. - **Commodity News**: International crude oil and natural gas futures prices rose on June 3 [11]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations**: On June 3, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 454.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 830 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 375.5 billion yuan [13]. - **Funding Rates**: On June 3, the funding situation was balanced with a slight easing trend, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 decreased by 6.86bp to 1.414%, and DR007 decreased by 11.49bp to 1.550% [14]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest Rate Bonds**: - **Cash Bond Yield Trends**: On June 3, the increase in the issuance price of negotiable certificates of deposit dampened market sentiment, and the bond market showed a weak and volatile performance. The yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose by 0.10bp to 1.6760%, and the yield of the 10-year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose by 0.45bp to 1.7170% [17]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of three agricultural development bonds was provided, including terms, issuance scales, winning yields, and other details [18]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On June 3, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Baolong 04", deviated by more than 10%, with a gain of over 1200% [18]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple credit bond events were reported, including bond resumptions, holder meetings, credit rating adjustments, and debt settlements [19]. - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: - **Equity Market**: On June 3, the three major A-share indices closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 0.43%, 0.16%, and 0.48% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1.16 trillion yuan [20]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market continued to rise following the equity market. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.29%, 0.28%, and 0.32% respectively. Most convertible bond issues closed higher [20]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On June 3, Nenghui Convertible Bond announced that it would not adjust the conversion price downward, and Kesun Convertible Bond announced that it would not choose to adjust the conversion price downward if the downward adjustment conditions were triggered again within the next six months [22]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: On June 3, the 10-year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4.46%, while yields of other tenors generally increased. The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 50bp [23][24]. - **European Bond Market**: On June 3, the 10-year government bond yield of France remained unchanged, while those of other major European economies mostly declined [26]. - **Price Changes of Chinese Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes of Chinese dollar bonds as of the close on June 3 was provided, including the daily and monthly changes, credit entities, bond codes, and other details [28].

关税政策再生变数，叠加资金面宽松，债市震荡回暖 ——利率债周报（2025.5.26-2025.6.1） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 利率债周报 一、上周市场回顾 时间 2025 年 6 月 3 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市震荡回暖，长债收益率明显下行。上周（5 月 26 日当 周），基金等机构赎回压力、存单价格走高、美国法院"叫停" 特朗普关税等因素对债市造成利空扰动，但在资金面宽松以及 上周五美国上诉法院暂时恢复实施特朗普政府关税政策提振下， 债市整体震荡回暖，长债收益率明显下行。短端利率方面，尽 管上周央行持续净投放支撑资金跨月无忧，但债市短端利率下 行动力不足，整体小幅上行，收益率曲线趋于平坦化。 本周（6 月 2 日当周）债市料将震荡偏暖。从基本面来看，虽 然 5 月官方制造业 PMI 回升至 49.5，但仍处于收缩区间，显示 关税政策带来的外部压力犹存。从资金面来看，尽管本周逆回 购到期量大，但适逢月初资金较为充裕，资金面大概率将维持 宽松格局。同时考虑到中美贸易摩擦不确定性再度攀升，俄乌 冲突进一步升级，市场避险情绪快速升温，预 ...

Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in May was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from April[1] Factors Influencing PMI - The rise in manufacturing PMI was primarily driven by the implementation of proactive macro policies and a rebound in exports due to the easing of the US-China tariff conflict[2] - New credit and social financing in May were supported by a series of financial policy measures, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates[2] - The new export orders index and import index rose to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting increases of 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[2] Challenges and Limitations - Despite the improvements, the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, influenced by high tariffs over 40% from the US and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[3] - High-frequency data indicated a decline in operating rates in most industries, except for those related to infrastructure investment, which saw an increase[3] Price Trends - The manufacturing PMI's price indices both fell slightly by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in a deep contraction zone, with PPI expected to decline further from -2.7% to around -3.1% year-on-year[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above 51.5% for four consecutive months, indicating strong growth and resilience in this sector[4] Service Sector Insights - The service sector PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from April, supported by increased tourism during the May Day holiday[5] - The construction PMI fell to 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment activities[5] Future Outlook - The implementation of steady growth policies is expected to provide crucial support for macroeconomic operations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and accelerating infrastructure investment[6] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to rise further to around 49.7% in June, driven by the "export rush" effect following the easing of tariffs[6]

资金面继续向宽，债市延续弱势 【内容摘要】5 月 28 日，资金面继续向宽，主要回购利率延续下行；债市延续弱势；转债市 场主要指数涨跌互见，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【财政部今年将在香港发行 680 亿元人民币国债】5 月 28 日，财政部称，经国务院批准，2025 年财政部将在香港特别行政区，分六期发行 680 亿元人民币国债。其中，前两期共计 250 亿元 人民币国债已分别于 2 月、4 月发行。现定于 6 月 4 日通过招标发行第三期 125 亿元人民币国 债，具体发行安排将在香港金融管理局债务工具中央结算系统（CMU）公布。 【4 月份全国发行地方政府债券 6933 亿元】财政部 5 月 28 日发布的《2025 年 4 月地方政府 债券发行和债务余额情况》显示，2025 年 4 月份，全国发行新增债券 2534 亿元，其中一般债 券 233 亿元、专项债券 2301 亿元。全国发行再融资债券 4399 亿元，其中一般债券 1174 亿元、 专项债券 3225 亿元。4 月合计，全国发行地方政府债券 693 ...

4 月规模以上工业企业利润增速加快；资金面继续向宽，债市整体走弱 【内容摘要】5 月 27 日，资金面继续向宽，主要回购利率均下行；受银行以及基金赎回增多 传闻扰动，债市整体走弱；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益 率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【4 月规模以上工业企业利润增速加快】国家统计局 5 月 27 日发布的数据显示，1-4 月全国 规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 21170.2 亿元，同比增长 1.4%，其中 4 月规模以上工业企业 利润同比增长 3.0%。国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁表示，1-4 月规模以上工业企业利润稳定 恢复，展现出我国工业强大韧性和抗冲击能力。但也要看到，国际环境变数仍多，需求不足、 价格下降等制约因素仍然存在，工业企业效益稳步恢复的基础还需继续巩固。具体来看，1-4 月规模以上工业企业利润同比增速较 1-3 月加快 0.6 个百分点。4 月规模以上工业企业利润同 比增速较 3 月份加快 0.4 个百分点。 【2025 陆家嘴论坛将于 6 月 18 日至 19 日在上海举办】5 月 27 日，据 ...