Group 1: CPI Trends - In February 2025, the CPI year-on-year growth turned negative at -0.7%, down from 0.5% in January, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of -0.1% for January-February, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from December 2024[1] - The decline in CPI is primarily attributed to the Spring Festival timing effect, with significant drops in food and service prices, particularly a 12.6% decrease in vegetable prices and a 3.3% decline in overall food prices[5] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a year-on-year growth of 0.3% for January-February, indicating persistent weak demand in the market[7] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI in February 2025 decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, a slight improvement from a 2.3% decline in January, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[1] - The decline in PPI is largely influenced by falling energy prices, particularly in oil and coal, but the rate of decline has narrowed due to improved demand from post-holiday resumption of work and growth stabilization policies[10] - The PPI for production materials fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, reflecting weak demand for industrial products[13] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to rebound to around 0.3% year-on-year in March 2025, driven by a lower price base from the previous year[9] - The ability of the macro economy to escape low price levels in 2025 will depend on the stabilization of the real estate market, external trade environment changes, and the intensity of macro policies aimed at boosting consumption[9] - The government has set a CPI control target of around 2.0% for 2025, the lowest since 2004, indicating a focus on moderate price recovery[10]

Export Performance - In January-February 2025, China's export value increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a significant drop of 8.4 percentage points compared to December 2024[1] - The export value in January-February 2025 showed a month-on-month increase of 60.9%, exceeding the 10-year average of 57.9%[2] - Exports to the US grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from December 2024, indicating the trade war's impact has not fully materialized[3] Import Performance - In January-February 2025, China's import value decreased by 8.4% year-on-year, contrasting with a 1.0% increase in December 2024[9] - The average month-on-month increase for imports over the past 10 years in January-February was 66.5%, while in 2025 it was only 60.2%[9] - The decline in imports was primarily driven by weak domestic demand and the impact of the trade war on import needs[9] Trade Partners - Exports to ASEAN increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while exports to the EU grew by 0.6%, both showing a decline from December 2024 due to high base effects[5] - Exports to South Korea fell by 2.6%, reflecting broader weaknesses in South Korea's external trade[5] - Exports to India rose by 7.9%, indicating stronger export momentum despite high base effects[5] Future Outlook - The trade war is expected to further impact exports, with a potential significant year-on-year decline in March 2025 due to new tariffs on Chinese goods[6] - Import values are projected to continue declining in March 2025, with a forecasted year-on-year decrease of around -5.0%[12] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing foreign trade and promoting new growth areas such as cross-border e-commerce and service trade to mitigate trade war impacts[7]

Economic Growth and Inflation - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at "around 5.0%", consistent with last year's target and actual growth, aligning with market expectations[2] - The CPI control target is set at "around 2.0%", marking the first time since 2004 that the target is below 3%, indicating a focus on moderate price recovery[3] Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The fiscal deficit rate target for 2025 is increased to 4.0%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a fiscal deficit scale reaching 5.66 trillion yuan[5] - The new local government special bond issuance scale is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from last year, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy stance[4] Investment and Debt Management - The total new government debt issuance for 2025 is projected at 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending intensity[8] - 8 billion yuan of the new special bonds will be used to replace existing local government hidden debts, helping to control debt risks and alleviate repayment pressures[6] Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts of up to 0.5 percentage points, which is higher than the 0.3 percentage point cut in 2024[10] - The central bank may continue to implement structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors, with expectations for increased new credit and social financing[11] External Trade and Risk Management - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize external trade development amid increasing external economic uncertainties, with measures to support cross-border e-commerce and service trade[12] - The focus on stabilizing the real estate market includes increasing loan support for "white list" projects and controlling new land supply to mitigate risks of corporate debt defaults[13]

资金面继续维持偏紧格局；股市大涨压制债市情绪，债市延续弱势 【内容摘要】2 月 21 日，资金面继续维持偏紧格局，午后稍转宽松；受股市大涨压制，债市 延续弱势；转债市场主要指数跟随收涨，转债个券多数上涨；海外方面，各期限美债收益率普 遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 债市早报 【蓝佛安：加快地方政府融资平台改革转型,有效防范化解地方政府债务风险】财政部部长蓝 佛安 2 月 21 日在人民日报发表文章《实施更加积极的财政政策 推动经济持续回升向好》，详 解了中央此前部署今年更加积极财政政策持续用力、更加给力的内涵。蓝佛安总结今年积极财 政政策将体现在五个方面，分别是提高财政赤字率，加大支出强度、加快支出进度；安排更大 规模政府债券，为稳增长、调结构提供更多支撑；大力优化支出结构、强化精准投放，更加注 重惠民生、促消费、增后劲；持续用力防范化解重点领域风险，落实落细一揽子化债政策，加 快地方政府融资平台改革转型，有效防范化解地方政府债务风险；进一步增加对地方转移支付， 增强地方财力、兜牢"三保"底线。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【李强：推动服务消费高质量发展，更好满足群众多样化服务消费需 ...

1 图表 1 是根据各地区自然资源局等官方网站的不完全统计，数据截至 2025 年 2 月 26 日。 拟收储地块数量（宗） 用地面积（万平方米） 拟收储价格（亿元） 惠州 46 226.44 127.52 肇庆 37 155.59 49.32 汕尾 19 - 22.89 江门 18 62.99 14.49 云浮 15 62.03 11.02 梅州 15 51.18 14.89 珠海 14 41.48 66.52 广州 13 84.66 22.81 茂名 10 51.31 21.05 河源 8 - 16.88 中山 3 21.38 12.69 潮州 3 14.20 6.83 湛江 2 4.97 2.63 韶关 1 - 0.71 图表 1：广东省部分城市公示的拟收储情况1 | 东莞 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.35 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合计 | 205 | - | 390.6 | 广东率先推进收储工作 对房地产市场有何影响？ 数据来源：公开资料，东方金诚整理 2024 年 11 月，自然资源部发布《关于运用地方政府专项债券资金收回收购 存量闲置土地的通知》（以下简称《通 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In February 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from January, indicating a return to the expansion zone[1] - The production index in February reached 52.5%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, outperforming major industry operating rate indicators[2] - The new orders index increased to 51.1%, a rise of 1.9 percentage points, marking the highest level in nearly 10 months[2] Economic Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI was driven by post-holiday resumption of work and effective growth-stabilizing policies, particularly in durable consumer goods and infrastructure investment[2] - Large enterprises' PMI surged from 49.9% to 52.5%, significantly contributing to the overall manufacturing PMI increase[2] Challenges for SMEs - The PMI for small enterprises decreased from 46.5% to 46.3%, indicating ongoing contraction and highlighting persistent market demand issues[2] - Over 60% of enterprises report insufficient demand, suggesting a need for further economic stimulus[2] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchase price index rose to 50.8%, up 1.3 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone due to rising prices of metals and increased procurement activities[3] - The factory price index increased to 48.5%, a rise of 1.1 percentage points, reflecting the impact of raw material price increases and improved market demand[3] Export Orders and Services - The new export orders index rose by 2.2 percentage points to 48.6%, exceeding market expectations despite adverse external trade conditions[4] - The services PMI fell to 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to seasonal declines in retail and hospitality sectors[4] Construction Sector Performance - The construction PMI increased significantly to 52.7%, up 3.4 percentage points, driven by seasonal recovery in infrastructure investment[5] - The civil engineering activity index exceeded 60%, indicating robust infrastructure investment momentum in the first quarter[5] Future Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in the expansion zone in March, supported by historical seasonal trends and upcoming policy announcements aimed at stabilizing growth[6] - Anticipated adjustments in domestic counter-cyclical measures will likely enhance macroeconomic stability amid increasing external uncertainties[6]

作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 2024 年 2 月 25 日 美国经济数据走弱，国际金价再创新高 黄金周报（2025.2.17-2025.2.23） 核心观点 上周多个美国经济数据走弱，助推黄金价格再创新高。上周 五（2 月 21 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五下跌 0.58%至 684.44 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格上涨 1.93%至 2949.60 美元/盎司；黄金 T+D 现货价格下降 0.38%至 683.22 元/克，伦 敦金现货价格上涨 1.83%至 2934.96 美元/盎司。具体来看，上 周二，特朗普表示计划对汽车征收"25%左右"的关税，并对 半导体和药品进口征收类似比例的关税，提振黄金避险需求， 带动金价大幅回升。随后公布的美国 2 月 Markit 服务业 PMI、 消费者信心指数、以及房地产成屋销售等多项经济数据均走弱， 美元指数因此下行，进一步助推金价上涨。整体上看，上周金 价高位运行，再创新高。 本周（2 月 24 日当周）黄金价格仍将保持高位运行。这一方 面源于特朗普加征关税的威胁将持续推升市场避险情绪，对黄 金形成一定支撑；另一方面， ...

往后看，当前 MLF 余额仍然较高，未来以买断式逆回购替换 MLF 过程还会持 续；综合当前房地产市场、外部经贸环境变化，以及整体物价走势，我们判断一 季度末前后降息窗口有可能打开，届时 MLF 操作利率也将跟进下调。 1 2025 年 2 月 MLF 到期量为 5000 亿，2 月 24 日续作 3000 亿，相当于 2 月 MLF 缩量 2000 亿。不过，考虑到央行已在 2025 年 1 月开展 17000 亿买断式逆回购操 作，相当于为应对 2025 年 2 月 MLF 大额到期，已提前释放了大规模中期流动性。 实际上，这是 2024 年 10 月以来的基本操作模式，即通过开展大额买断式逆回购， 持续替换 MLF，淡化 MLF 操作利率的政策利率色彩。这也意味着尽管 2024 年 10 月以来 MLF 持续缩量，但央行并未缩减中期流动性投放。 年初宏观政策在稳增长方向持续发力，再加上货币政策基调已由"稳健"转 向"适度宽松"，强调"保持流动性充裕"，都意味着尽管近期央行暂停二级市 场国债买入，但会通过较大规模开展买断式逆回购、适量续作 MLF 等政策工具投 放流动性，保持中期市场流动性处于充裕状态，并 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 2025 年 2 月 LPR 报价保持不变，符合市场预期 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 事件： 2025 年 2 月 20 日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版 LPR 报价：1 年 期品种报 3.10%，上月为 3.10%；5 年期以上品种报 3.60%，上月为 3.60%。 解读： 2025 年 2 月 LPR 报价保持不变，符合市场预期。一方面，作为 LPR 报价的定价基础，年 初以来政策利率，即央行 7 天期逆回购利率保持稳定，已在很大程度上预示 2 月 LPR 报价会 保持不变。另一方面，受防范资金空转，遏制长债收益率过快下行势头，以及同业存款监管 新规落地等影响，近期 DR007 和银行同业存单到期收益率上行明显，银行边际资金成本上 升。这意味着本月报价行下调 LPR 报价加点的动力不足，特别是在当前商业银行净息差降至 历史最低水平的背景下。 开年政策利率及 LPR 报价保持不动，根本原因在于去年三季度末一揽子增量政策出台， 楼市回暖，经济景气度上升，2024 年四季度 GDP 同比升至 5.4%，较上季度加快 0.8 个百分 点；2025 年年初来，居民消费整体走势平稳，1 ...

Price Movement - Last week, the Shanghai gold futures price rose by 2.76% to 688.40 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures increased by 0.26% to 2893.70 USD/oz[2] - Gold T+D spot price increased by 2.58% to 685.80 CNY/g, and London gold spot price rose by 0.77% to 2882.09 USD/oz[2] - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, initially rising before a drop, but overall showed an increase[2] Market Dynamics - Arbitrage trading has driven demand for physical gold, leading to a surge in spot gold demand and pushing prices to new highs[2] - Despite higher-than-expected U.S. CPI and PPI data, inflation indicators suggest that the rise in core CPI may not be sustainable, providing some support for gold prices[2] - Recent U.S. tariff policies led to profit-taking among gold bulls, causing a sudden drop in international gold prices[2] Future Outlook - The upcoming week is expected to have some risk of price correction due to profit-taking tendencies in COMEX gold futures[3] - Market sentiment may be pressured by the announcement of lower-than-expected inflation impacts from tariffs and potential easing of geopolitical tensions[3] Trading Volume and Positions - The cumulative trading volume for gold T+D rose significantly by 60.30% to 231,014 kg, attributed to fewer trading days in the previous week[15] - Global SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 5.44 tons to 863.06 tons, indicating a slight retreat in physical gold investment[15] Economic Indicators - U.S. January CPI rose by 3.0%, exceeding expectations, while core CPI increased by 3.3%[21] - January PPI also showed a significant increase of 3.5%, marking the highest level in nearly two years[22] - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.9% in January, the largest decline since March 2023, indicating potential economic weakness[23]