Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.5 CNY, based on a current price of 11.08 CNY [7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in the functional sugar sector, with a focus on optimizing management efficiency and strategies to return to a growth trajectory in 2024 [1][16]. - The company has set ambitious profit targets for 2025-2027, with a minimum net profit of 1.7 billion CNY in 2025 and cumulative targets of 3.82 billion CNY and 6.47 billion CNY for 2025-2026 and 2025-2027, respectively [1][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of functional ingredients such as prebiotics, sugar-reducing sweeteners, and dietary fibers, with an annual capacity exceeding 500,000 tons and over 2,000 active customers [1][16]. Industry Transformation - The functional sugar industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by demographic changes, consumer preferences, and policy guidance, leading to a shift from traditional sweeteners to healthier alternatives [2][54]. Product Focus - The company is the largest producer of isomalto-oligosaccharides globally and has seen a 52.58% increase in sales revenue from erythritol in 2024, capitalizing on opportunities in international markets [3][56]. Future Prospects - The company plans to launch new products utilizing synthetic biology technology and expand production capacity for erythritol and allulose, with significant projects set to commence in 2025 [4][56]. Financial Forecast & Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.57 billion CNY, 2.79 billion CNY, and 3.07 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 170 million CNY, 221 million CNY, and 274 million CNY [5][6]. The report highlights the company's strong growth potential and recommends a target price based on a 30x PE ratio for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant decline in national land use rights transfer income, down 11.9% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025, totaling 1,128.1 billion yuan [9] - In the first half of 2025, residential land supply in 300 cities decreased by 18.6%, while transaction area fell by 6.8%. However, land transfer income increased by 24.5% year-on-year, with an average premium rate of 10.3%, up 6.2 percentage points from the previous year [9][10] - The top 20 cities accounted for 66% of the national land transfer income in the first half of 2025, an increase from 51% in 2024, indicating a rising concentration in the land market [10] - The report highlights a trend of "volume reduction and quality improvement" in the land market, with significant differentiation in supply and demand across different city tiers [12] Summary by Sections 1. Land Market Overview - National land transfer income for the first five months of 2025 was 1,128.1 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year [9] - In the first half of 2025, residential land supply decreased by 18.6%, and transaction area fell by 6.8%, while land transfer income increased by 24.5% [9][10] - The average premium rate for land transactions was 10.3%, up 6.2 percentage points from the previous year [9] 2. City Performance - The leading cities in land transfer income were Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, with respective amounts of 101.0 billion, 100.6 billion, 63.8 billion, and 36.6 billion yuan [10] - The top 20 cities' land transfer income accounted for 66% of the national total, indicating increased market concentration [10] 3. Real Estate Company Performance - Among 22 cities, state-owned enterprises accounted for 58% of land acquisition, while private enterprises increased their share to 21% [11] - Leading real estate companies in land acquisition included Greentown, Poly, and China Overseas, with respective acquisition amounts of 34.1 billion, 32.9 billion, and 28.3 billion yuan [11] 4. Market Trends and Outlook - The report anticipates a continued downward trend in land supply and demand influenced by third- and fourth-tier cities, while first- and second-tier cities may see improved auction activity in the second half of the year [12] - The expectation of a "stop falling and stabilize" policy is likely to support market recovery, particularly in cities with shorter turnover cycles [12] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading companies with product advantages [13] - Recommended stocks include Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, among others [13]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are experiencing price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions. Copper prices have shown an upward trend, while aluminum prices have seen mixed movements due to supply and demand dynamics [1][19][23] - Precious metals, specifically gold and silver, have faced downward pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand and hawkish monetary policy expectations. The report maintains a positive outlook on gold in the medium term amid a weakening dollar [2][23] - The small metals sector, particularly tin, has shown signs of recovery, supported by geopolitical factors and a declining dollar index, which has bolstered the performance of non-ferrous metals [3][49] Summary by Sections Basic Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have risen, with the Shanghai copper closing at 79,920 CNY/ton. The market is influenced by geopolitical stability and reduced inventory levels, although domestic demand remains weak [1][11] - Aluminum: Prices have fluctuated, with the Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,580 CNY/ton. Supply pressures are increasing due to production resumption, while demand from the real estate sector is subdued [1][19] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have declined, with gold averaging 774.48 CNY/gram and silver at 8,713 CNY/kg. The decline is attributed to reduced geopolitical tensions and a shift in market focus towards industrial metals [2][23] Small Metals - Tin: Prices have rebounded, with London tin closing at 33,140 USD/ton, up 450 USD/ton from the previous week. The recovery is supported by easing geopolitical tensions and a declining dollar index [3][49] - Rare Earths: Prices are on the rise, with light rare earth oxide prices increasing by 0.1% to 444,100 CNY/ton. The sector is expected to see significant improvement in the third quarter [3][49] Other Metals - Lead: Prices have shown a slight increase, supported by marginal improvements in supply and demand dynamics [25] - Zinc: Prices have rebounded slightly, with the market showing signs of recovery amid geopolitical stability [31] - Cobalt: Prices have increased due to supply constraints and policy delays in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with electrolytic cobalt prices ranging from 244,000 to 265,000 CNY/ton [41][42]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 25.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit of 3.6 billion, up 14% year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive year of record high revenue and net profit [1]. - The gross margin decreased by 2 percentage points, influenced by changes in channel structure, product category mix, and rising costs of core raw materials [1]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development in its main down jacket business, with brand revenue reaching 18.5 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company is expanding its omnichannel integration, with significant growth in online platforms and optimized offline store operations [3]. - The earnings forecast for FY26-28 has been slightly adjusted, with expected revenues of 28.4 billion, 31.1 billion, and 34.1 billion respectively, and net profits of 4 billion, 4.4 billion, and 5 billion respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for FY24/25 was 25.9 billion, with a gross margin of 57% and operating profit margin of 19% [1]. - The company achieved a continuous increase in operating profit, growing by 13% [1]. Brand and Product Development - The company is enhancing its brand value through initiatives like "China Good Down" and collaborations with local brands [2]. - The OEM business also saw a healthy growth of 26% year-on-year, contributing 3.4 billion to revenue [2]. Omnichannel Strategy - The company has developed a strong online presence with approximately 21 million members on Tmall and JD, and 10 million followers on Douyin [3]. - Offline, the company is focusing on optimizing store quality and enhancing operational efficiency [3]. Earnings Forecast - Adjusted earnings forecasts for FY26-28 indicate a slight increase in expected revenues and net profits compared to previous estimates [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at HKD 3.12, indicating a potential upside in the next six months [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a mid-single-digit decline in total sales for the first quarter of FY25/26, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-over-quarter and 12.3% year-over-year [1]. - The company is accelerating its diversification strategy by partnering with UK running gear brand soar and Norwegian high-end outdoor brand Norrøna, aiming to enhance its influence in the high-end outdoor market in China [2]. - The company is redefining its retail space by integrating elements from art, culture, and music to create an immersive shopping environment, while also leveraging online platforms to build a comprehensive retail ecosystem [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For the first quarter of FY25/26, total sales experienced a mid-single-digit decline, with direct store sales area down 1.3% from the previous quarter and 12.3% from the same period last year [1]. Strategic Partnerships - In 2025, the company announced exclusive operational partnerships with soar and Norrøna, focusing on full-chain operations in the Chinese market, which is seen as a strategic move to strengthen its position in the professional sports sector [2]. Retail Strategy - The company is adopting a flexible sales channel strategy, enhancing its retail network through innovative store designs and a dual online-offline resource integration, creating a holistic retail ecosystem [3]. Financial Forecast - The report maintains its earnings forecast, projecting revenues of RMB 26.5 billion, RMB 27.3 billion, and RMB 28.6 billion for FY26-28, with net profits of RMB 1.3 billion, RMB 1.5 billion, and RMB 1.7 billion respectively [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant decline in small-cap crowding from 65% to 62.4%, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][18] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring trading volume as a primary indicator of market overheating, with current trading volume remaining relatively low at around 1.2 trillion [1][18] - The report suggests that the current market environment is not overheated, with limited growth in financing balances, indicating a stable recovery phase [1][18] Group 2 - The deep-sea technology sector is identified as a key pillar of the marine power strategy, with significant growth potential in deep-sea materials, equipment, and digitalization [22][24] - The report recommends focusing on high-performance steel, titanium alloys, and composite materials in the deep-sea materials segment, which are crucial for deep-sea oil and gas resource development [22][24] - In the deep-sea equipment sector, it notes a projected 13.8% increase in shipbuilding completion volume in 2024, highlighting the growth of China's shipbuilding industry [22][24] Group 3 - The report on the banking sector indicates that the recent capital injection will enhance the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios of major state-owned banks, positioning them favorably compared to global peers [7] - It specifically points out that China Bank and Postal Savings Bank are expected to benefit significantly from the capital injection, which may positively influence their future credit issuance [7] - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the banking sector due to potential macroeconomic fluctuations and asset quality concerns [7] Group 4 - The report on the agricultural sector identifies COFCO Technology as a leading player in corn deep processing, with a focus on sustainable business models and increasing profitability [9] - It highlights the company's plans to expand its production capacity for fructose syrup and citric acid, indicating a strategic move to capitalize on market opportunities [9] - The report anticipates that COFCO Technology's dividend value will become more pronounced as corn prices stabilize and improve [9] Group 5 - The report on the electronic sector discusses the structural improvement in the main business of Jingwei Hengrun, with a focus on the growth of body domain controllers and advanced driving assistance systems [8] - It projects significant revenue growth for the company, estimating revenues of 69.97 billion, 87.26 billion, and 106.97 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [8] - The report assigns a "hold" rating, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook on the company's performance [8]

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 实操视角下的信用主体骑乘库优化 证券研究报告 信用策略周报 20250629 本周聚焦：跨季信用表现如何？7 月，信用博弈哪些结构性机会？ 一、信用，抹平凸点收益 经历前期持续上涨后，当周信用表现趋弱，收益率及利差多数走阔， 其中：截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，中短票收益率曲线上 3Y、5Y 凸性稍大， 对应期限收益率及信用利差当周明显压缩。 此外，城投债仍具备配置价值，尤其是中低等级下沉品种和 7 年期左 右超长品种，当前来看票息仍相对丰厚，二级"抢券"情绪仍在。 三、理财跨季扰动可控 近几年，理财资产配置结构上更加注重流动性的改善，季末回表对信 用债的扰动有所趋弱：随着持仓资产中存款、存单的比例提高，季末回表 直接减持债券或是赎回产品的压力便不那么直观。 从近期理财配置信用债的情况也能感受一二：6 月最后一周，理财二 级净买入普信债规模小幅下降，但仍继续增持二永债等品种。 四、7 月，信用控久期 站在当前节点往后看，有几个问题值得讨论： 第一，7 月跨季后，理财迎来规模增长，考虑到 5 月存款降息幅度较 大，6 月银行存在回表诉求反应还有所时滞，这整体对 7 月理财规模 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 美股新高，原油大跌 证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 海外经济跟踪周报 20250629 海外市场复盘（6.23-6.27） 本周海外主要股指普遍收涨。一是对伊朗以色列局势的担忧降温；二是因 为个别联储官员放鸽、特朗普喊话降息和降低油价，令年内降息预期从 2 次上升至 3 次；三是芯片和科技股发力；本周标普和纳指创新高，VIX 指 数下跌。 美元下跌、美债收益率下行。本周个别联储官员放鸽、特朗普喊话降息、 鲍威尔在国会听证会上继续强调观望但态度开始"端水"；油价大幅回调、 抹去以伊冲突以来的涨幅；周五公布 PCE 通胀超预期但超出的幅度有限， 年内降息预期从 2 次上升至 3 次，美元和美债下行。 油价和黄金下跌。中东局势担忧下降，特朗普强调降低油价，令油价在此 前连续 3 周收涨后本周大跌，抹去以伊冲突以来的涨幅。地缘冲突风险下 降、美国标普 PMI 等经济数据稳健、经济陷入衰退的概率下降，黄金回调。 海外央行动态 本周，美联储官员密集发声，立场不一。鸽派代表有美联储理事鲍曼，表 示可能支持 7 月降息；鹰派代表有哈玛克、博斯蒂克、柯林斯等。美联储 主席鲍威尔本周在 ...

- The report defines a timing system signal based on the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) of the Wind All A Index, which is currently at 1.76%, indicating the market is still in a consolidation pattern[1][3][9] - The industry allocation model recommends mid-term allocation to sectors experiencing a turnaround, such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, new consumption, and Hong Kong finance, with the trend still intact[2][3][10] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and communication sectors[2][3][10] - The Wind All A Index's PE ratio is at the 65th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB ratio is at the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[2][10] - The position management model suggests a 50% allocation to absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[2][10] Model Backtest Results - Timing system signal: Moving average distance 1.76%[1][3][9] - Industry allocation model: Mid-term recommendation for turnaround sectors, Hong Kong innovative drugs, new consumption, and Hong Kong finance[2][3][10] - TWO BETA model: Recommendation for technology sector, focus on military and communication[2][3][10] - Wind All A Index PE ratio: 65th percentile[2][10] - Wind All A Index PB ratio: 20th percentile[2][10] - Position management model: 50% allocation to absolute return products[2][10]

Market Insights - The small-cap crowding index has decreased from 65% to 62.4%, indicating a significant drop in market congestion, approaching levels seen in April 2025 [1][10] - Previous market adjustments occurred when the trading volume decreased alongside rising small-cap crowding, while the current market shows stable inventory levels [1][10] - The current trading volume has remained relatively low, averaging around 1.2 trillion, without signs of overheating during the recovery phase [1][11] Domestic Industry Analysis - In May, industrial enterprise profits reported a year-on-year decline of 9.10%, with cumulative profits from January to May down to -1.10% from a previous 1.40% [3][20] - The inventory of finished goods for large industrial enterprises stood at 6.65 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.50% [3][20] - The People's Bank of China indicated a need for moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery amid challenges like insufficient domestic demand [3][31] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE index rose by 2.68% year-on-year in May, slightly above expectations, indicating inflationary pressures [4][11] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [5][11] - The consumer sector is expected to recover due to low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, despite a cautious macro narrative [5][11]