风险提示：海外流动性快速收紧；美国经济硬着陆风险；国际局势复杂化。 《策略|中观景气度高频跟踪及运用——中观景气度数据库和定量模型应 用》 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|海外与外资周观察——港股能否重拾上涨动力？》 1、4 月初以来，恒生指数已实现较为可观的涨幅，但板块热度出现明显 分化。港股银行拥挤度从 3 月开始逐渐提升但斜率较缓，仍低于去年平均 水平，可以认为情绪尚未过热。恒生科技与港股创新药的拥挤度指标出现 分化，前者回落至去年平均水平，后者不断刷新近年高位。新消费板块中， 以泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团为代表的成分股也出现拥挤度中枢明显 上移的情形。2、港股需要保持较高的涨幅集中度，指数才有可能实现高 收益。因此需要观察资金是否回流阿里、小米、腾讯等权重股上，但从港 股通持股量看，南向资金更多表现为逆向投资（"涨卖跌买"），当前左侧 押注意愿并不强烈。3、投资意见方面，当前板块轮动的难度正在加大， 同时海外地缘冲突扰动、内部流动性收紧的压力也在上升，建议对港股后 续走势保持谨慎，等待资金面与情绪面出现一定缓解后择机介入，方向上 坚持杠铃配置，一方面港股银行板块仍然存在溢价压缩空间，另一 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 17.3% year-to-date as of June 20, with major contributors like Alibaba, Xiaomi, and HSBC each contributing over 2% to the gains, while the top ten stocks contributed a total of 15.5%, indicating a structural characteristic of the index this year [2][9][11] - The proportion of Hang Seng Index constituents above the 100-day moving average has been declining since September 2024, highlighting the importance of individual stock and sector research over a broad market focus [2][9][11] - Historical data suggests that when the proportion of constituent stocks outperforming the index is lower, the relative performance of the index may improve, necessitating a continued focus on heavyweight stocks to maintain current return levels [11][12] Group 2 - Since April, the Hang Seng Index has seen significant gains, but there is a noticeable divergence in sector performance, with the banking sector's crowding indicator gradually increasing since March, yet remaining below last year's average [3][15] - The technology sector's crowding indicator has returned to last year's average, while the innovative pharmaceutical sector continues to reach new highs, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3][15] - The financial sector is experiencing an upward revision in earnings expectations, contrasting with the technology sector, which has seen a decline in earnings momentum, suggesting a higher probability of success for financial stocks [19][21] Group 3 - Recent inflows of southbound capital and an increase in IPO and refinancing activities in Hong Kong have raised demand for the Hong Kong dollar, pushing its exchange rate towards the strong-side guarantee [4][31] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's actions to manage liquidity have led to a decrease in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR), which has implications for the stock market, particularly when the currency approaches the weak-side guarantee [30][31] - The overall sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market is cautious, with recommendations to wait for a stabilization in liquidity and sentiment before making investment decisions, while maintaining a barbell strategy focusing on both banking and AI-related internet stocks [4][37]

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current focus on dexterous hands is due to their flexibility in operation, which is crucial for the generalization capabilities of robots. The industry is witnessing significant advancements, particularly led by Tesla, with various manufacturers following suit in dexterous hand development [2][12] - The value of dexterous hands is substantial, accounting for approximately 17% of the total cost of Tesla's Optimus second generation, indicating a vast market potential. The willingness of customers to pay is driven by the ability to solve practical problems, suggesting a premium space for functional inflation [2][20] - The market for dexterous hands is characterized by widespread participation across various segments, including the main body, dexterous hands, and components, which is expected to accelerate technological development and reduce component costs [2][21] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - Dexterous hands are essential for the generalization capabilities of robots, with a focus on their perception and execution abilities. The industry is transitioning towards dexterous hand capabilities as a key area of development [5][11] - The current stage of development emphasizes the importance of dexterous hands in executing generalized tasks and using human-designed tools, with a requirement of at least 17 degrees of freedom to approach human hand functionality [11][12] Market Participation - The dexterous hand market includes a variety of participants, such as manufacturers of the main body, dexterous hand companies, and component suppliers. This diversity is expected to foster rapid technological advancements and cost reductions [21][24] - Key players in the dexterous hand segment include companies like Reiser Intelligent, Yongchuang Intelligent, and Jiangsu Leili, among others, focusing on different aspects of the dexterous hand technology [2][21] Cost Structure - The cost structure of dexterous hands is influenced by the complexity of technology and the number of components involved. The estimated BOM cost for a dexterous hand with 17 drives and 5 sensors is approximately 51,800 yuan, with the drive and transmission components accounting for 64% of the total cost [30][26] - The high value of dexterous hands is reflected in their significant cost contribution to the overall robot assembly, with potential market value reaching 170 billion yuan if production scales up [20][21] Technological Development - The current focus is on enhancing the hardware capabilities of dexterous hands, with a competitive landscape that includes both rigid and flexible transmission solutions. The industry is in a phase of "stacking materials" to improve foundational hardware capabilities [36][42] - The development trajectory of dexterous hands is expected to follow a path similar to that of autonomous driving technology, transitioning from hardware enhancement to algorithmic improvements and cost reductions over time [42][45]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Insights - The beverage sector has shown resilience, particularly in the liquor segment, following media reports that have alleviated concerns over strict alcohol consumption regulations. This has led to a positive market sentiment and a recovery in valuations for liquor companies [3][14] - The beer sector has also performed well, with a 1.91% increase, driven by improved sentiment and a recovery in dining revenues. The overall restaurant income in May increased by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending [4][15] - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the health products, soft drinks, and snack sectors, highlighting their growth potential due to new consumption trends and low base effects [5][16] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of 0.12% during the week of June 16-20, with specific segments like beer (+1.91%) and liquor (+1.10%) showing positive performance, while snacks (-6.21%) and health products (-4.48%) faced declines [2][22] Liquor Insights - The liquor segment, particularly the white liquor category, has seen a recovery due to recent government clarifications on alcohol consumption regulations. The current PE-TTM for the white liquor index stands at 18X, which is considered low compared to historical averages [3][14] - Key recommendations include Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [6][21] Beer Insights - The beer sector's performance is linked to the recovery in dining and consumer spending, with notable increases in companies like Yanjing (+6.6%) and Zhujiang (+4.4%) [4][15] - The report anticipates that ongoing consumption promotion policies will further boost beer sales in the medium to long term [4][15] Consumer Goods Insights - The consumer goods sector is advised to focus on "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" and "market share enhancement" as key investment themes. The report highlights the potential in health products, snacks, and soft drinks due to their growth trajectories [5][16] - Specific companies to watch include Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to benefit from upcoming seasonal demand and cost advantages [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Continued recommendations for soft drinks and low-alcohol products due to their favorable market conditions and growth potential [6][20] - In the liquor sector, strong alpha companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are highlighted for their ability to capitalize on market concentration benefits [6][21]

Group 1 - The macro environment in the second half of 2025 faces multiple contradictions, including the transition of economic drivers and the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector, while technological innovations in AI, robotics, and other fields are enhancing global competitiveness [1] - The marine economy is emerging as a new engine for economic growth, with the marine production value expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, contributing 11.5% to GDP [1] - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with high-frequency economic indicators showing mixed results, and the EPMI index significantly below historical levels [2][30] Group 2 - The military trade sector is expected to see strategic development opportunities, with advanced fighter jets like the J-10CE and J-35 becoming key assets for China's military exports [7] - The military procurement model is shifting from single equipment purchases to systematic equipment procurement, enhancing the value of military trade [7] - Investment focus in the military sector includes main platforms, radar technology, unmanned systems, and guided equipment [7] Group 3 - The oil market remains under the influence of the shale oil era, with expectations for a small cycle nearing its end by 2025 [9] - Coal prices are expected to stabilize after a complete inventory cycle, but supply constraints may limit rebound potential [9] - Natural gas prices are anticipated to enter a more relaxed state post-2025 as new capacities come online [9] Group 4 - The wind turbine manufacturing sector is expected to see a profit turnaround in 2024, with the company achieving the largest market share in offshore wind projects [11][14] - The company has established a stable wind farm operation model, contributing to profitability through both self-operated and sold projects [14] - Forecasted net profits for the company are projected to grow significantly from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong future performance [14] Group 5 - The agricultural sector is facing challenges with fluctuating pig prices and a decrease in profitability for self-breeding operations [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued stocks and strong companies within the pig farming sector [17] - Recommended stocks include leading companies in pig farming, highlighting their potential for recovery and growth [17] Group 6 - The construction materials sector is experiencing growth opportunities, particularly in water conservancy and port expansion projects [22] - The company is actively pursuing strategic partnerships to enhance its capabilities in solidifying materials and equipment [22] - Projected net profits for the company are expected to increase significantly from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Buy" with a target price not specified in the report [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the YU7 model is expected to be a significant product for Xiaomi, showcasing a shift towards practicality while maintaining a luxurious brand image. The YU7 is positioned as a mid-to-large pure electric SUV, featuring advanced technology such as laser radar, 800V fast charging, and Nvidia Thor chips [1][2]. - The YU7 is anticipated to leverage Xiaomi's ecosystem, potentially enhancing overall revenue growth through better integration with AIOT products. The initial user interest has exceeded expectations, with a significant portion of new users showing interest in the brand [2][3]. - The report forecasts a strong sales performance for the YU7, predicting that it may outperform market expectations due to its competitive pricing strategy and high-value features [3]. Summary by Sections Product Overview - The YU7 is Xiaomi's second vehicle, designed to complement the SU7, with a focus on a more practical approach while retaining a sporty design. It offers options for single and dual motor configurations, with a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.23 seconds [1]. Market Positioning - The YU7's pricing strategy is centered around providing value for money, with luxury features included in the offering. The report notes that the initial user engagement for the YU7 has been significantly higher than that of the SU7, indicating a broader appeal [2][3]. Financial Projections - The report projects that Xiaomi's total revenue could reach 471.8 billion CNY in 2025 and 679.7 billion CNY in 2026, with electric vehicles and innovative business segments contributing 96.4 billion CNY and 250.6 billion CNY respectively. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY for the same years [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories internally while also pursuing external growth through acquisitions. The performance in 2024 is expected to be impacted by fluctuations in the operations of its associate company, Weimeizi, and underperformance from its subsidiary, Shanenkang, leading to impairment provisions for long-term equity investments and goodwill [1][5]. - The company has a significant production capacity for toothbrushes and wet wipes, and it is actively expanding its toothpaste category, with production capacity increasing from 60 million to 120 million units [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10 million yuan, a decline of 34.5% year-on-year [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, up 21.8% year-on-year, but a net loss of 80 million yuan, a significant decline of 183.6% year-on-year [1][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for oral care and wet wipes being 22.6% and 23.5%, respectively [2][11]. Product Segment Summary - In 2024, toothbrush revenue was 500 million yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year, with sales volume reaching 420 million units, a rise of 14.7%. The average price per unit decreased by 5.5% to 1.19 yuan [1]. - Wet wipes generated revenue of 390 million yuan, up 15.3% year-on-year, with sales volume of 5.28 billion pieces, an increase of 19.0%, while the average price per unit decreased by 4.0% to 0.07 yuan [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its support for its subsidiary, Shanenkang, focusing on developing major customer relationships and implementing performance evaluation mechanisms to improve its financial performance [4]. - The company is also prioritizing the development of its own brand products alongside its ODM business, aiming for scale growth in toothpaste, toothbrushes, and orthodontic care products while ensuring reasonable profit margins [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, rating adjustments for convertible bonds may be relatively optimistic. With the expectation of economic recovery and policy support such as expanding domestic demand and debt resolution, credit risks are relatively controllable, but industry differentiation and tail risks still need attention [12]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but remains at a relatively low level in the long - term. The risk premium shows good allocation value. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has certain support. The overall valuation of convertible bonds is in a reasonable range, and the valuation center is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future [15]. - Attention should be paid to popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, high - dividend sectors under the Chinese - characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1. Recent Rating Adjustments - As of Friday, 237 convertible bonds have disclosed their 2025 annual follow - up rating announcements, accounting for 50.3% of the total number of convertible bonds in the market. Among the updated - rating convertible bonds, 14 have had their ratings downgraded, and the adjustment ratio of medium - and high - rated convertible bonds is significantly lower than in previous years [10]. - Rating downgrades have a short - term negative impact on convertible bonds, but the overall market impact may be relatively controllable. The prices of convertible bonds with high institutional holdings and rating downgrades have relatively large adjustments, while those with low institutional holdings and relatively low original ratings are less affected [10]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market showed daily fluctuations and a weekly overall correction. The A - share market's three major indexes rose on Monday, adjusted on Tuesday, rose slightly on Wednesday, fell on Thursday, and adjusted with volume contraction on Friday [14]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level. The export order rebound has led to a narrow improvement in the May PMI. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has support. The convertible bond valuation is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future. Attention should be paid to different sectors [15]. 3.2. Convertible Bond Market Weekly Tracking 3.2.1. Equity Market Declined, and Pro - cyclical Sectors such as Banks Strengthened - This week, the main equity market indexes declined. Among them, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%. The market style was more inclined to large - cap growth [18]. - Three Shenwan industry indexes rose, and 28 declined. The banking, communication, and electronics industries rose, with increases of 2.63%, 1.58%, and 0.95% respectively [21]. 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Declined, and the 100 - yuan Premium Rate Decreased - This week, the convertible bond market declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.17%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.11%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 0.59%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds decreased [23]. - Five convertible bond industries rose, and 24 declined. The non - bank finance, public utilities, and banking industries led the gains, while the media, beauty care, and social services industries led the losses [27]. - Most individual convertible bonds declined. The top five weekly gainers were Jingrui Convertible Bond, Liande Convertible Bond, Tianchuang Convertible Bond, Xuerong Convertible Bond, and Shouhua Convertible Bond. The top five weekly losers were Jinling Convertible Bond, Zhite Convertible Bond, Jindan Convertible Bond, Dongshi Convertible Bond, and Zhongchong Zhuan 2 Convertible Bond [29]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate rose. The weighted conversion premium rate of the whole market was 48.62%, up 1.02 pct from last weekend. The 100 - yuan parity premium rate was 18.89%, down 1.74 pct from last weekend [34]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of various types of convertible bonds declined. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 80 - 90 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan declined, while most others increased. The valuations of AAA - rated convertible bonds increased, while those of other ratings decreased. The valuations of large - cap convertible bonds increased, while those of other scale segments decreased [42]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom. As of Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was below the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds was below the 50th percentile [42]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, AAA - rated convertible bonds rose, while those of other ratings declined. The AAA convertible bonds rose 0.43%, and AA + convertible bonds fell 0.12% [55]. - This week, large - cap convertible bonds rose, while those of other scales declined. The small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.75%, and the medium - small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.46% [57]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Supply and Clause Tracking 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - One new convertible bond was listed this week (Hengshuai Convertible Bond), and five issued but unlisted convertible bonds are pending (Luwei Convertible Bond, Dianhua Convertible Bond, Anke Convertible Bond, Xizhen Convertible Bond, and Huachen Convertible Bond). One primary approval was obtained this week, and Maiwei Co., Ltd. (1.967 billion yuan) passed the shareholders' meeting [62]. - From the beginning of 2023 to June 20, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 92, with a total scale of 146.099 billion yuan [63]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 9 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 15 announced no downward revisions, 5 proposed downward revisions, and 1 actually had a downward revision [66][67]. - Six convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 5 announced no early redemptions, and 1 announced an early redemption. As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds were still in the put - option declaration period, and 35 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [71][73].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of seizing the mid-year reporting window, continuing to recommend downstream high prosperity and western structural prosperity varieties [2][3] - The real estate sector is currently in a slow adjustment phase, with a focus on promoting market stabilization from both supply and demand sides [2][14] - The report highlights potential overperformance in Q2 for companies in the fiberglass, coatings, and ester chemical sectors, suggesting continued focus on these areas [3][20] Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.45%, while the construction materials sector (CITIC) dropped by 1.68%. However, the fiberglass and glass sectors achieved positive returns [12][17] - Notable individual stock performances included Kaisheng New Energy (+18.0%), Zhenan Technology (+17.7%), and Quartz Shares (+14.9%) [12][17] Key Sub-industry Tracking - Cement: National cement market prices fell by 0.9% week-on-week, with demand weakening due to seasonal factors [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market showed weak overall transactions, with prices declining [18] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali roving remained stable, with prices slightly down [19] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks include: - China National Materials (17.58 CNY, Buy) - Three Trees (34.70 CNY, Buy) - Honghe Technology (13.68 CNY, Hold) - Qingsong Construction (3.59 CNY, Buy) - Gaozheng Mining (32.60 CNY, Hold) - Tibet Tianlu (8.07 CNY, Hold) - Shafeng Cement (8.03 CNY, Buy) [9][20]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告 5 月统计局地产指标怎么看？ 行业追踪（2025.6.14-2025.6.20） 1）销售端：2025 年 1-5 月，商品房销售金额同比-3.8%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.6pct；5 月单月销售金额环比+13.1%，同比-6.0%，降幅较 4 月收窄 0.7pct。1-5 月销售面积同比 -2.9%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.1pct；5 月单月商品房销售面积环比+10.3%，同比-3.3%， 降幅较 4 月增大 1.2pct。2） 投资端： 2025 年 1-5 月，房地产开发投资累计完成额同比 -10.7%，较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。5 月单月同比-12.0%，降幅较 4 月增大 0.7pct；新开工 面积累计同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月上升 1.0pct；5 月单月同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月提升 2.9pct； 施工面积累计同比-9.2%,增速较 1-4 月增长 0.5pct；房屋竣工面积累计同比-17.3%，增速 较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。3） 资金端： 2025 年 1-5 月，到位资金同比-5.3%，较 1-4 ...